Synopsis of Near Earth Orbit Objects and Related Space ... - ALTA

19 downloads 40 Views 2MB Size Report
CONTRIBUTION TO SPACE EXPLORATION AND ECONOMY . ..... exhaustive list of experts to whom the author feels sincerely obliged: Aviospace: Giorgio ...
SYNOPSIS of NEAR EARTH OBJECTS and RELATED SPACE EXPLORATION MISSIONS

HiPER EU Project No. 218859

Silvano Casini Beauregard-October 2011

TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES………………………………….………………………………………………………………...….II LSIT OF FIGURES………………………………………………………………………………………………...…..III ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...........................................................................................................................................IV INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................ 0 1. NEOS ORBITS, NATURE AND CLASSIFICATION.............................................................................................. 1 2. SCIENTIFIC MISSIONS ............................................................................................................................................ 7 2.1. PHYSICAL PROPERTIES............................................................................................................................................. 7 2.2. ENCOUNTERS TO DATE ............................................................................................................................................ 9 2.3. FUTURE ENCOUNTERS ........................................................................................................................................... 10 3. CONTRIBUTION TO SPACE EXPLORATION AND ECONOMY ................................................................... 11 3.1. SUPPORT TO SPACE EXPLORATION ........................................................................................................................ 12 3.2. IN SPACE INFRASTRUCTURES AND LOGISTICS ........................................................................................................ 15 3.3. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITIES AND ECONOMIC CONCERNS .................................................................................... 17 3.4. SPACE BASED MARKET ......................................................................................................................................... 19 3.5. ASTEROID MINING ................................................................................................................................................. 19 3.6. PROJECT ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY .......................................................................................................................... 20 3.7. CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................................................................ 22 4. NEOS HAZARD AND MITIGATION..................................................................................................................... 24 4..1. STATE OF THE ART................................................................................................................................................ 26 4.2. ON-GOING AND FORESEEABLE ACTIONS ................................................................................................................. 28 4.3. DYNAMIC MANIFOLDS: A POTENTIAL REVOLUTIONARY SOLUTION ........................................................................ 31

I

LIST OF TABLES Table 1 – Asteroids Groups by Orbits .................................................................................................1 Table 2 – The Torino Scale..................................................................................................................5 Table 3 – Asteroids Taxonomy............................................................................................................6 Table 4 – Encounters to Date...............................................................................................................9 Table 5 – The Future Encounters .......................................................................................................10 Table 6 – ∆V Comparisons ................................................................................................................12 Table 7 – Useful Products Obtainable from NEOs............................................................................13 Table 8 – Market Value of Semiconductors and Precious Metals .....................................................17

II

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 – Orbit Schematic of Amor, Apollo and Aten asteroids........................................................1 Figure 2 – Orbit Schematic of 1862 Apollo asteroid ..........................................................................2 Figure 3 – Orbit Schematic of 1221 Amor asteroid.............................................................................2 Figure 4 – Orbit Schematic of 2062 Aten asteroid ..............................................................................3 Figure 5 – Known Near-Earth Asteroids until 2006 ............................................................................3 Figure 6– Known Near-Earth Asteroids until 2010 .............................................................................4 Figure 7 – Earth-Moon transportation energy using Delta-V2 Scale .................................................13 Figure 8 – Servicing SAFIR throughout Earth-Moon System...........................................................14 Figure 9 – Orion Crew Capsule as First EML1 Platform...................................................................15 Figure 10 – Exploration platform derived from existing assets.........................................................16 Figure 11 – Orion as Manned Vehicle to NEOs ................................................................................16 Figure 12 – Flashes on Tunguska Disaster ........................................................................................24 Figure 13 – Impacting Earth ..............................................................................................................25 Figure 14 – “Big Brother” Jupiter.....................................................................................................25 Figure 15 – Meteor Data Points 2003-2005.......................................................................................26 Figure 16 – IR telescope in Venus-like orbit .....................................................................................28 Figure 17 – Completeness for entire NEO population: IR space telescope only...............................29 Figure 18 – Completeness on Human Exploration targets: IR space telescope only ........................29 Figure 19 – Neostar............................................................................................................................30 Figure 20 – Osiris-Rex .......................................................................................................................30 Figure 21 – Amor NEO Lander Concept ...........................................................................................30 Figure 22-23-24-25 – EML1 Dynamic Manifolds. ............................................................................33 Figure 236 – Genesis Trajectory........................................................................................................34

III

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author is indebted to a number of institutions and individuals for their direct or indirect contribution to this study. John M. Longsdon, Professor Emeritus of Political Science and International Affairs of the George Washington University’s Elliot School of International Affairs, has been especially helpful in providing advices about the evolution of the U.S. space policy, whose outcomes will definitely pave the way of a long standing Space Exploration of the solar system. The Future In-Space Operations Working Group, led by Harley Thronson, Associate Director for Advanced Concepts and Planning in Astrophysics at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, which since 2005 aims at operations in free space that can benefit both science and human space exploration has been a generous source of detailed information about expected Space Exploration missions and related scientific and technological scenarios. While future scenarios, as well as definitions of priorities and possible political approaches to study, exploit, and mitigate NEOs reflect the opinion of the author, most of detailed information about them and the present status of their knowledge are due to previous studies. The following is a nonexhaustive list of experts to whom the author feels sincerely obliged: Aviospace: Giorgio Borriello. Boeing Phantom Works: Ben Donahue. Boeing Space Exploration: Kevin Post. Carnegie Institutions of Washington: John E. Chauders. Jet Propulsion Laboratory: Martin W. Lo and Shane D. Ross. Lockheed Martin Corporation: Adam F. Dissel and Joshua B. Hopkins. Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Richard P. Binzel. Max – Planck Institut für Chemie (Germany): Ludolf Schultz. NASA Ames Research Center: Wanda L. Davies, Robert Laudis, Christopher P. Mc Kay and Peter Warden. NASA Headquarters: Lindley Johnson. Purdue University (Indiana): Michael E. Lipschutz. Space Esplorers: Mike A’Hearn and Thomas D. Jones. Specola Vaticana (Italy): Br. Guy Consolmagno. Telespazio SpA: Ettore Perozzi. University of Arizona: Larry Lebofsky. University of Central Florida: Daniel T. Britt. University of Maryland: Lucy A. Faeden. University of Oxford (UK): Alex N. Holliday.

Silvano Casini Beauregard – 29 September, 2011

IV

V

Introduction Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are solar system bodies having little mass and small dimensions (compared to Earth’s) with orbits crossing Earth’s orbit. They are considered the remnants of the early solar system. To reach NEOs and study their physical, mineralogical, chemical, and biological properties is therefore of the utmost scientific interest. There are other reasons to visit NEOs. They might be an opportunity to make sustainable Space Exploration, and to develop a new branch of the economy (i.e. sources of rare materials). They are also a pending threat for human beings and Earth in general: it has been calculated that we have a ten percent probability of a major impact on Earth in the next fifty years. All together the scientific, economical and security interests justify the investments required to explore, exploit and control NEOs.

1. NEOs orbits, nature and classification NEOs are divided between Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and Near-Earth Comets (NECs). While comets are sources of water ice and carbon-based molecules needed to maintain life, asteroids are reach in minerals and metals. Thus, as we are at the edge of initiating the colonization of the inner solar system, NEAs will become convenient sources of raw materials needed for building large space habitats, and other infrastructures such as Space-Based Solar Power (SBSP) plants. In the case of some rare metals NEAs could economically substitute mining on Earth. NECs could be used as rich, sure and less expensive (compared to Moon) sources of H2O, a material badly needed to assure astronauts’ life, and propellants for space-to-space missions. Any asteroid or comet orbiting the Sun with a perihelion, q, < 1.3AU, well inside the orbit of Mars, is defined as a NEO. Aphelia, Q, of NEOs generally lie within a sphere of radius 5.2 AU, defined by Jupiter’s orbit. Among this broad group are three sub-groups: Atens, Apollos, and Amors (see Table 1 and Figure1). An additional sub-group is constituted by Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs). Any Object with both a semi-major axis and “q”