the case of Grosseto province

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kill livestock, providing both quantitative and visual guides for targeting conflict mitigation ... generator and ground system. .... for the general public and livestock owners on the ways of coexistence between the wolf and human ...... Wolf wild prey include abundant populations of wild boar (Sus scrofa), roe deer (Capreolus.
FACOLTÁ DI SCIENZE MATEMATICHE FISICHE E NATURALI DOTTORATO DI RICERCA IN BIOLOGIA AMBIENTALE ED EVOLUZIONISTICA XXIX CICLO

Exploring the importance of the ecological context in wolf-livestock interaction management: the case of Grosseto province

PhD student Margherita Zingaro

Tutor Prof. Luigi Boitani

DIPARTIMENTO DI BIOLOGIA E BIOTECNOLOGIE ―CHARLES DARWIN‖ ANNO ACCADEMICO 2013-2016

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................ 4 LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................... 5 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................................................. 6 ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................................................... 7 RIASSUNTO ................................................................................................................................................... 10 CHAPTER 1 .................................................................................................................................................... 14 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................... 14 Wolf livestock conflict ................................................................................................................................ 15 Conflict mitigation....................................................................................................................................... 17 Reducing social tension ........................................................................................................................... 18 Reducing wild canids depredation on livestock ...................................................................................... 19 LIFE programs and wolf-livestock conflict resolution in Italy ................................................................... 23 Aim and objectives ...................................................................................................................................... 24 References ................................................................................................................................................... 24 CHAPTER 2 .................................................................................................................................................... 32 ASSESSING WILD CANID DEPREDATION RISK USING A NEW THREE-STEP METHOD: THE CASE OF GROSSETO PROVINCE (TUSCANY, ITALY)* ........................................................................ 32 Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................... 32 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 33 Materials and Methods ................................................................................................................................ 34 Study area ................................................................................................................................................ 34 Husbandry practices and human-predator conflict .................................................................................. 34 Wild canid presence data ......................................................................................................................... 35 Depredation data ...................................................................................................................................... 35 Ecological Variables ................................................................................................................................ 35 Modeling approach .................................................................................................................................. 37 Modeling evaluation ................................................................................................................................ 39 Results ......................................................................................................................................................... 40 Wild canids distribution model................................................................................................................ 40 Depredation events .................................................................................................................................. 41 Depredation risk ...................................................................................................................................... 41 Discussion.................................................................................................................................................... 42

References ................................................................................................................................................... 45 CHAPTER 3 .................................................................................................................................................... 58 ARE THE LIVESTOCK GUARDING DOGS WHERE THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO BE? ........................ 58 Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................... 58 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 59 Materials and Methods ................................................................................................................................ 60 Study sites................................................................................................................................................ 60 Data sampling .......................................................................................................................................... 61 Spatial analysis ........................................................................................................................................ 62 Distance analyses..................................................................................................................................... 62 Movement range overlap ......................................................................................................................... 63 Statistical analysis ................................................................................................................................... 63 Results ......................................................................................................................................................... 64 Distance ................................................................................................................................................... 64 Overlap .................................................................................................................................................... 65 Discussion.................................................................................................................................................... 65 References ................................................................................................................................................... 68 CHAPTER 4 .................................................................................................................................................... 79 HUSBANDRY CONDITIONS INFLUENCE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF USING LIVESTOCK GUARDING DOGS ........................................................................................................................................ 79 Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................... 79 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 80 Methods ....................................................................................................................................................... 81 Study area ................................................................................................................................................ 81 Husbandry practices ................................................................................................................................ 81 Data sampling .......................................................................................................................................... 82 Statistical procedure ................................................................................................................................ 82 Results ......................................................................................................................................................... 83 Discussion.................................................................................................................................................... 84 References ................................................................................................................................................... 86 CHAPTER 5 .................................................................................................................................................... 96 DISCUSSION.................................................................................................................................................. 96 Management implication ........................................................................................................................... 101 References ................................................................................................................................................. 102

LIST OF TABLES Chapter 2 Table 1. Ecological variables considered for wild canid presence and depredation events occurrence. ......... 49 Table 2. Results of sensitivity analysis. POD measure the sensitivity at different threshold probability. ...... 50 Table 3. S1. Result of ENFA analysis. Marginality score for all the variables is reported. ............................ 55 Chapter 3 Table 1. Information on LGDs and farms involved in the study……………………………………………..72 Table 2. Land use classes included in each land use group…………………………………………..………73 Table 3. Fixed and random effects fitted in the linear mixed models……………………………...…………74 Table.4. Results of Wilcoxon rank sum test to detect differences in distance between pair of LGDs from the same social group…………………………………………………………………………………….……..75 Table 5. Selected models with delta1.5 years old, Espuno 2004) in good shape. Data from one farm were deemed confounding, thus were excluded from the analysis. Data were collected by a trained veterinarian who verified on site information related to the number of adult LGDs and their age, distance between farmer‘s home and night shelter, adequacy of night shelter, herd size, depredation events over the last six months, and presence of shepherd. All the variables were objectively quantified except for shepherd presence that was reported by the farmer as absent, present, or occasionally present. The number of dogs was double-checked on field and by consulting the Regional dog register. The distance between farmer‘s home and night shelter (pens, barns, or mix of both) was measured on GIS using aerial imageries, and was representative also of the distance between farmer‘s home and pastures. Night shelters were classified on whether they were predator-proof or not (i.e. whether or not the predator could get into the shelter). Pens were to be sturdy, chain-linked with a 10X10 cm mesh and at least 175 cm in height above the ground. The basal part of the fence had to be buried in the ground, while the upper part had to be bent over at 45° outwards. Barns were to be robust and completely closed. Shelter locks had to be at least 175 cm in height above the ground and fitted with a wooden or concrete sleeper. If one of these features was lacking or compromised, the shelter was considered not predator-proof. The veracity of the depredation event by canids was checked on the Health Authority database. To minimize the probability that the depredation event occurred in different husbandry conditions, we considered only the verified canid attacks on livestock until six months before the survey. In addition to these husbandry variables, we included the depredation risk for each farm. We quantified this variable using landscape features such as land use, watercourse, accessibility to livestock, and wild canid probability of occurrence following the procedure suggested by Zingaro and Boitani (in press, see Chapter 2).

Statistical procedure To evaluate which variables limited the efficacy of the LGDs we conducted univariate tests. For continuous variables we used Wilcoxon rank sum test to compare farms with and without depredations. For categorical variables we used contingency tables and the χ² test. The level of significance was set at p