The Diffusion of Mobile Data Applications - CiteSeerX

11 downloads 45231 Views 210KB Size Report
Marshall School of Business. University of Southern ..... phones allow teens to maintain contact and meet outside the ... AT&T Wireless to Drive. Texting Through ...
Session A

Elizabeth Fife and Francis Pereira

The Diffusion of Mobile Data Applications Although the adoption rates of cellphones for basic voice have been rapid in most countries, the adoption rates of mobile data applications have been varied. For example, while SMS has been extremely popular in Europe, particularly Finland, the adoption rates thus far in the US have been less enthusiastic. And while mobile payment services have begun to be embraced overwhelmingly in South Korea, their deployment in other countries has been lukewarm. This paper uses the diffusion of innovation theory as a framework to analyse the factors that can account for the different adoption rates of mobile data applications particularly in South Korea, Japan and the United States. Rogers’s diffusion of innovation suggests that the successful adoption of new technologies will depend on five characteristics; namely, the ‘relative advantage’, the ‘reduction of uncertainty’, the ‘nature of the social system’, the ‘type of innovation-decision’, and the ‘communication channels’. In the context of this framework, this paper also reports on the initial pre-trial findings of the University of Southern California - Harex International market trial of the universal mobile payment system (UMPS) on the campuses of USC. The 3-year trial is designed to test different user perceptions of advanced mobile data applications such as e-tickets in the US and South Korea.

Introduction Although the use of mobile data applications, such as wireless access to the Internet, has proliferated across the world, the adoption rates of these applications and services has been very uneven across countries. For example, in Korea some 4600

locations, including four large department stores as well as the COEX Hall in downtown Seoul, have been equipped by Harex InfoTech with point-of-sales devices that would support infrared payments using cellphones, and full commercial deployment is expected in the second half of 20031. Using the same technology, Sookmyung Women’s University in Seoul allows its students to register for classes, renew library books and buy sodas from vending machines via their cellphones. Similarly, the use of SMS has been relatively low in the United States, as compared to Asia and Europe, where, in Europe alone, it is a $14 billion dollar market2. Of the estimated 576 million people reported to be using SMS, 256 million are in the Asia-Pacific Region and 196 million are in Europe3. This trend is reflected in Figure 1.

The Diffusion of Innovations Framework Although the different adoption rates have been attributed to cultural characteristics, including political ideology5, age characteristics, specifically in that younger people prefer ‘reach’ versus ‘richness6’, socioeconomic happenstance7, and even technological and market structure differences8, few studies incorporate a comprehensive approach to explaining the different adoption rates. This paper attempts to introduce a comprehensive framework to elucidate the differences in adoption rates across countries. Such a framework helps to explain why some innovations tend to

Figure 1 SMS frequency of use by region 100 90

3

24

80

Authors Elizabeth Fife, Ph.D. and Francis Pereira, Ph.D. Center for Telecom Management, DCC 217 Marshall School of Business University of Southern California University Park, Los Angeles, California 90089-0871 (213) 740-0980 Email: [email protected] or [email protected]

70 60

Percentage

3

8 5

28

16

16

12

17

7 8

14

81

9

25

8

More than once a day Once a day Once a week Once a month Never

11

30 20

26

15

50 40

9 26

19

13

10

4

45

38

38

38

Other Asia

Brazil

29

10 0

Total

USA

Europe Japan

1

Session A

Figure 2 Internet usage versus PCs population in 2002 diffuse from first introduction to widespread use, or critical mass, within a few years. Others, like telemedicine and tele-education, seem to be requiring a longer time period. Several models can be used to provide plausible explanations for the differences in the rate of adoption. In general, most of these models tend to dichotomise members of the social system into early adopters and late adopters. Most of these models tend to argue that early adopters use products, technologies, or services for five different reasons, or some combination thereof†: • Adoption occurs when the new product or service satisfies consumers’ existing and unmet need. • Adoption occurs when a new product or service has a competitive advantage in relation to an existing one. • Adoption occurs because of a painful experience or extreme dissatisfaction. A painful experience with an existing service can be incentive for adoption of a new one. • Adoption can occur because early adopters may have ‘insatiable appetites’ for new technologies so much so that they will be willing to pay high prices for the latest gadget, software and applications. • Adoption can occur because suppliers’ have sufficient control over a market to allow them to provide significant incen-

† Broadband itself is an enabler, but not a consumable product or service. Thus, the emphasis must be put on the services that may be delivered by a broadband network. Customers dont’t adopt broadband. They adopt the applications that broadband make possible.

Iceland (57.7)

60

Sweden (55.1) Singapore (63.1) S. Korea (58.2) Finland (60.7) US (42.6) New Zealand (58.0) Canada (37.2) Denmark (54.5) Japan (51.5) Germany (52.4) Hong Kong (62.1) Netherlands (53.9) UK (58.6) Australia (54.3) Austria (64) Taiwan (64.6) Belgium (61.3) Switzerland (51.8) France (53.2)

50

40

Internet Users per 100 30 Population

Malaysia (64.3)

20

Spain (64.2)

10 0

Thailand China

0

10

20

tives, or to limit alternatives, or to create penalties to encourage adoption.9 Later adopters then either observe and imitate early adopters, or they communicate with them and are persuaded or induced to adopt these innovative products or services, thus critical mass is eventually achieved. The diffusion of innovation theory suggests five characteristics which can be used to describe innovations and analyses how individuals’ perceptions of these characteristics affect the adoption rates10. The diffusion of innovation theory postulates that the rate of adoption, and thereafter attainment of critical mass of a new innovation (or lack thereof) will be determined by the critical factors given in Table 1. Utilising this framework helps provide an explanation for the different adoption rates of mobile data applications across countries.

The social and economic advantage that can be derived from adopting the new product.

Reduction of Uncertainty

2

30

40

50

60

70

PCs per 100 Population

Table 1 Diffusion of innovation theory—critical factors Relative Advantage

14

Compatibility

the degree to which an innovation is perceived as consistent with existing values and past experiences of the adopter

Complexity

the extent to which the innovation is perceived as difficult to understand and use

Trialability

the degree to which the innovation can be experimented with on a limited basis

Observability

the degree to which the results of an innovation are visible to others

Nature of Social System

the set of interrelated units engaged in joint problem solving, its structure (formal and informal) and its norms

Type of Innovation-Decision

Innovations can be adopted by individual members of the social system or by the entire social system. The first type is optional, while the second is either by consensus or by authority. As a general rule, authority-based decisions promote faster adoption.

Communication Channels and extent of change agents’ promotion efforts

Change agents are opinion leaders. They can influence other members of the social system to adopt (or conversely not adopt) an innovation.

The Diffusion of Mobile Applications Relative advantage What value do mobile data wireless applications provide to their users? The concept of relative advantage can help to explain, in part, the different adoption rates of mobile data applications across countries. This is illustrated in Figure 2, which shows the personal computer penetration rates of select countries, plotted against their respective Internet usage. Two groups of countries stand out: • Countries with high Internet usage and high personal computer penetration rates. Countries in this group include Sweden, Singapore and the United States. • Countries with high Internet usage and relatively low personal computer penetration. Countries in this group include Japan, Hong Kong and Taiwan. However, it is interesting to note that countries in the latter group also generally have relatively high cellphone penetration rates as a percentage of total telephone subscriber lines. For example, as Figure 1 illustrates, Taiwan’s cellphone penetration rates as a percentage of total telephone subscriber line is 64.6% as opposed to 42.6% for the United States. The uniqueness of the Internet and the value-proposition it provides, in terms of ‘information-ondemand’ has been previously discussed11. For consumers in countries with relatively low PC penetration rates, such as Japan and Hong Kong, cellphones and other mobile devices provide an alternative access medium to transact emails, retrieve sports and news and other forms of messaging. Specifically, in Japan i-mode is hugely popular in densely populated cities like Tokyo where waiting in lines, frequent traffic jams and general delays are commonplace. Mobile access to entertainment sites,

Session A

Figure 3 Cellular phones versus PCs in 2002

19

Taiwan

100 Austria

Iceland

Sweden Denmark Finland Switzerland Singapore Netherlands France S. Korea Germany Australia New Zealand Japan UK

80 Belgium Spain

Cellphones per 100 Population

growing in popularity, and even being used by outlawed Muslim separatist guerrillas to send messages to reporters or kidnappers to negotiate ransoms, the cost for one minute for a voice call is 20 times as much as sending a text message17. This concept of relative advantage can also help explain the rather slow adoption rate of the mobile Internet in Singapore, as observed by the International Telecommunications Union18. With a relatively high level of personal computer penetration, in over 50% of households, and given the highly dense nature of the population, the ‘value’ of mobile data applications may not be as great as it is in countries with lower levels of computer penetration.

Hong Kong

60

US

40

Canada

Malaysia Thailand

20

China

0 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

PCs per 100 Population

news, weather, and local information helps make their chaotic cities negotiable. Not surprisingly, some 55% of i-mode accesses in the first few months of 2000 were to entertainment-related areas, with the most popular entertainment categories being downloading of ringing melodies, playing games, the downloading of characters and other pictures, horoscopes and information about music12. Perhaps more importantly, instant messaging gives the ability to change meeting times and places as circumstances require. Although long commuting times provide an opportunity to check news, sports results, horoscopes and stock prices, i-mode phones can also be used for emails, paying bills and reserving concert tickets and flights.13 Korea however stands as an exception. This pattern is also reflected in Figure 3, which plots cellphone users per 100 of the population against PC penetration rates. Japan perhaps best illustrates the economic or social advantage that an innovation has to possess for rapid adoption by consumers. Since most Japanese commute to and from work via the subway system, access to email services as well as short messaging service (SMS) provide useful applications for Japanese consumers to while away the time. The relatively low PC penetration rates in

Japan suggest that Japanese consumers would not find the small screen-size and lower resolution of cellphones a major drawback. Additionally, the high initial price point for basic services, such as fixed-line Internet services in Japan, and the relatively low marginal charge for data services15, makes the value proposition to the Japanese consumer for mobile data services relatively attractive. In contrast, the adoption of mobile data services, such as SMS, has been relatively slow. From the ‘relative advantage’ approach, this can be explained by the relatively high PC penetration rate in the US which has engendered an average consumer that is accustomed to large computer screens with high resolution. Furthermore, the cost of local calls in the United States is virtually free, such that there is no cost advantage in texting as opposed to making a voice call. Free local access also implies that logging on to the Internet for hours at a time, and sending ‘instant messages’ from PC to PC, which are free as opposed to text messages, tends to be the preferred mode of electronic chat among teenagers16. This is substantiated in Figure 4, which shows CTM’s panel of experts’ view that prices for mobile Internet services in the US have to be ‘relatively’ equal or lower to the land-line substitute. In contrast, in the Philippines, where SMS is

89 85 80

Email access Messaging (MMS)

73 73 69

Higher access speeds Growth of multimedia content New access devices New per-minute usage meter

40

60

The highly developed and extensive landline telecommunications system in the United States and Canada, and the relatively low usage charges coupled with high computer penetration, provide alternative means for the transmission of data. Cellular communications however are perceived to be relatively less reliable, because of service quality issues, such as dropped calls and limited network coverage21. As such, mobile data applications in the United States, can be seen as less ‘compatible’ with current consumer expectations and practices. This is illustrated in Figure 5 which shows the results of a

Security

86

Reliability

86 84

Lowering cost

56

Customer service

17 20

Compatibility

Savings

58 0

Reduction of uncertainty captures the uncertainty, actual or otherwise, perceived by consumers. This category encompasses four attributes that potential adopters may face in their adoption decision, namely, compatibility, complexity, trialability and observability. In other words, these classifications delineate whether the consumer sees a new application as very complicated to use, and whether the new application is compatible with his/ her lifestyle. A new application is also more likely to be adopted if it can be tried prior to adoption or if the consumer can observe it in use by his/her peers.

Figure 5 Expert views on important factors in increasing use of wireless applications in the US corporate market

Figure 4 Expert views on factors leading to increased wireless Internet session 20 times in the US Lower prices Flat rate pricing

Reduction of uncertainty

80

Percent Responding ‘Increase’

100

48 0

20

40

60

80

100

Percent Responding ‘Important or Very Important’

3

Session A

survey of CTM’s panel of experts. Over 80% of experts in the survey view security, reliability and the need to show value for use of mobile applications, as important factors for increased usage of wireless applications in the US market. In contrast, for Europe and Japan where the landline telecommunications systems were historically relatively less extensive and usage charges comparably higher, reliability issues may not be perceived as significant as they are in the US market. The concept of ‘compatibility’ also implies that consumers in countries with relatively low computer penetration rates, and high cellphone growth rates as discussed above, may perceive using mobile access devices, such as personal digital assistants (PDAs) and cellphones to access the Internet more in-line with their daily experience than consumers in countries with higher levels of computer penetration. As illustrated in Figure 6, countries with relatively low computer penetration and high cellphone growth rates relative to

computer growth rates are generally also countries with higher adoption rates of mobile data applications.

Complexity The user friendliness of access devices is crucial for the successful adoption of mobile data applications. CTM’s survey of experts also substantiate this point. As shown in Figure 7, over half of the experts hold that convenience and simplicity in access devices are very important factors in the adoption of mobile data applications.

Trialability Japan has one of the lowest handset life cycles in the world, which engenders fierce competition among handset manufacturers to develop devices with superior quality and features, especially user interfaces. This coupled with NTT DoCoMo’s ability to specify its handset requirements to all its handset suppliers, makes the mobile access devices extremely user friendly.

Figure 6 Computer penetration rates (2002) and growth rates of 22 PC penetration and cellphones (2000–2002) † 100 90

PCs per 100 PC growth

80

Cellphone growth 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

C an

ad a Ice lan d Fin lan d G er m an y Ta N ew iwan Ze a H lan on d gK on g U ni J ap te d Ki an ng do m Fr an ce Au st ri Be a lgi um Sp ai M n ala y Ph sia illi pi ne s C hi na

0

†Actual cellular growth rates of Philippines and China for 2002–2003 are 110% and 144%, respectively

Figure 7 Factors driving user preferences for handheld devices Convenience

63

Simplicity

58

Synchronisation

31

Performance

27

Aesthetics

23

Productivity Functions

23

Personalisation

15 0

10

20

30

40

50

Percent Responding ‘To a Great Extent’

4

60

70

Observability Koreans are susceptible to social pressure to keep up with their neighbours, which has had a significant impact on the rapid adoption of the fixed-line Internet23. This in turn would have had a beneficial effect on mobile data applications. On the other hand, poor consumer experiences with mobile voice services, particularly dropped calls, may have had retarded the acceptance of mobile data applications in the United States.

Social system Cultural and social factors may be closely related to the differing patterns of demand for mobile services seen around the world. In the US clearly, the penetration of mobile data services has been negligible relative to Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong. Interoperability among telecom carriers in the United States has been one of the oftcited reasons for the slow adoption rates of SMS in the US. It is only recently that consumers using SMS on one carrier’s network were able to exchange messages with other users on different networks. This situation is in contrast to Asia and Europe where wireless carriers have offered intercarrier messaging for several years.24 At the end of 2001 when Hong Kong’s six mobile phone companies opened their networks to allow the transmission of short-messages to competing networks, SMS traffic grew dramatically.25 Additionally, in Japan, NTT DoCoMo specifies its handset requirements to all four handset manufacturers which make access to content compatible on all handsets26. Overall, the fragmented wireless telecommunications landscape in the United States, coupled with generally poor national network coverage, different wireless standards and incompatible systems27, and the use of analogue cellular still in many areas28, has made it difficult to introduce mobile services to the mass market. But beyond these structural and technological factors, the dynamics of the social system may account for the fact that the mobile phone is considered merely a communication device in the US, while it has greater significance for users in many Asian economies. Because mobile services are accessed locally, it is possible that usage may be more dependent upon cultural factors than is the case with the Internet. Thus far, user behaviour with regard to the mobile Internet appears to differ across countries and cultures. For example, Lee and Kim find that the value users are experiencing from mobile data services varies significantly among the three leading countries in this area, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea.29 The rate of adoption in these three countries has been increasing more rapidly than in other markets and mobile services were

Session A

adopted relatively early compared to the other countries. Nonetheless, despite their geographic proximity strong cultural differences can be identified among these countries that perhaps explain how adoption of services has varied. The effect of cultural differences is reflected in Figures 8(a) and (b). For instance, accessing news services and financial information appears to be more popular in Hong Kong than in Japan or Korea where downloading services is prevalent.30 It appears that in general users in the Hong Kong market place a higher functional value on mobile data services than in these other markets. Users in Korea on the other hand, see the greatest benefits in using mobile services related to social values, rather than monetary or other utilitarian purposes. This could be explained by the high penetration rate of the fixed broadband Internet in Korea which provides users with a more substantial online experience than the mobile Internet can provide. As a result, the functional value of the mobile Internet relative to the fixed Internet can be considered low. In addition, connection fees to the mobile Internet are high compared to connection fees to the stationary Internet in Korea which are the lowest of the OECD member countries.31 The social value of mobile services appears important in Korea, where SMS use is extremely high, relative to other markets such as Hong Kong. This finding could reflect the strength of collectivism in this

Figure 8 Mobile data breakdown Email/chatting, 14%

Other, 7%

Stocks/Banking, 4% Cartoons/ Humour, 3%

Ring-tones/ Characters, 39%

Broadcasting, 3% Location/Traffic Service, 4% Adult, 5% E-Lottery, 9%

Games, 12%

(a) Mobile data breakdown, 33 SK Telekom, July 2002 Other, 7% Banking, 6%

Messaging, 41%

Shopping, 8%

country as a cultural value relative to Hong Kong or Japan.32

Type of innovation-decision One of the major factors explaining the difference in adoption rates of mobile applications is the national government initiatives of the various countries, particularly in the more developed Asian economies, to establish national ‘information superhighways’. From the ‘diffusion of innovations’ approach, these represent ‘authority-based’ decisions and, as such, are more likely to spur greater adoption. The development of such networks, either directly through the use of tax dollars or indirectly through the use of appropriate policies, such as spectrum allocation by fiat, allow national governments to exploit the benefits of e-government and could encourage uptake by effectively lowering the usage cost of applications for the consumer. Specifically, countries where the adoption rates of mobile data applications have been relatively higher are also countries where national governments have deliberate policies to encourage adoption of information and communication technologies. For example, the Taiwanese government has launched the National Information Infrastructure (NII) Plan with a budget of US$10 billion through 2005, designed to establish Taiwan as an Asia-Pacific Internet hub. The Taiwanese NII will be a broadband information superhighway consisting of coaxial cable, optical fibre and satellites, which will provide interactive voice, data, and video service island-wide, and will be linked with international networks.35 Similarly, the Singapore government has been most aggressive in promoting the deploying of new technologies and as manifested in several initiatives.36 The IT2000 master-plan is a blueprint to deploy IT to transform the state into an ‘intelligent island’.37 The IT2000 master-plan calls for all of Singapore’s over 800 000 households to be connected to a hybrid fibre-coaxial network, irrespective of whether they intend to subscribe to the various services.38, 39 It is estimated that by 2005, some 2–2.5 million users will connect to this broadband network.40

(b) Expected demand for mobile, China Mobile34

The phenomenal success of the i-mode phone is in large part due to its image as a ‘hip’ accessory of the moment by Japan’s youth culture. The i-mode is considered stylish and sleek (some weigh less than three ounces), and additionally, they can be customised. Pop

Heavy Light Heavy Light Heavy Light Heavy Light Heavy Light Hong Kong

Games, 10%

Stock Transaction, 16%

Communication channels

Table 2 Percentage distribution of heavy and light Internet users Users

News, 12%

Since the mid 1990s, the Korean Ministry of Information and Communications has enacted various policies to develop a high-speed telecommunications infrastructure as a foundation for Korea’s ‘knowledgebased society41’. Korea’s Information Infrastructure Program will comprise a national and a public network. The national network will be the backbone linking government agencies, local administrations and research and educational institutes. The public network will connect residences and businesses. Phase I of the network, which included the installation of fibre-optic cable linking 80 major cities and towns across the country was completed at the end of 1997. Phase 2, scheduled to have been completed by 2002, will provide high-speed video services, such as distance learning and telemedicine. Phase 3 is scheduled to be completed by 2010 and will facilitate highspeed multimedia services. The public information superhighway was designed to bring fibre to the office by the end of Phase 1, fibre to the curb by the end of Phase 2, and fibre to the home in Phase 3. In 2010 when the final project phase is completed, the goal is to create an environment where 90% of an estimated 33 million PC online service users will have integrated communications services. Thus, 19 million users will be covered by fibre-optic cable lines, 5 millions by digitised coaxial lines and 1.1 million by wireless local loop (WLL) lines.42 The Korean government also has instituted various policies to increase Internet use among the population. These included IT literacy and Internet literacy programmes targeting housewives, the elderly, military personnel and farmers. The success of government subsidies granted to private IT and Internet institutes for training housewives to allow them to take Internet courses at an affordable price is shown in Table 243.

Taiwan

Singapore

Korea

China

Student

30

6

31

13

25

7

51

13

14

7

Housewife

5

23

4

19

4

23

11

41

0

1

Other

65

72

64

66

69

71

37

44

85

91

5

Session A

melodies can be downloaded to replace ringing and for an extra charge animated characters will appear live on a customer’s screen and can be sent off to friends. Playing games is another highly popular activity on the i-mode.44 Commentators attribute i-mode’s success to various factors including affordable pricing, extensive content, the ease of use and familiarity to traditional handsets, and finally, the unmet demand for Internet access in Japan.45 Internet access in Japan has trailed the US and much of Europe due to high data charges. Additionally, it has also been suggested that the rapid uptake of teens’ mobile phone use in Japan is related to social-structural factors.46 The youth of Japan find mobile phones to be a liberating technology that is inexpensive and free of monitoring. It permits easy contact with peers that are spread out over the urban landscape and thus helps solidify group relations.47 Overall, while mobile phone use is widespread among virtually all age groups, different patterns of use have been identified in younger users. For example, teens send substantially more SMS than other age groups. This form of communication permits teens to overcome their lack of private space, which is particularly restricted in Japan compared to the US or even Europe. Mobile phones allow teens to maintain contact and meet outside the home, free of the monitoring by parents that would take place if the home phone were used. SMS is easy to use in public spaces or anyplace where speaking aloud would be disruptive or overheard, such as the classroom or home. The differences between the influence of the social systems of Japan, as discussed above, compared to

the United States are depicted in Figure 9, which illustrates the pre-trial perceptions of peer influences as well as the ‘relative value’ of the mobile Internet on the younger generations in the United States. As Figure 9 illustrates, USC students view the influence of friends and peers as relatively less important factors in encouraging them to subscribe to a mobile payment service. Conversely, they see lower connection charges, lower prices for the access device, and privacy concerns as more important factors in their considerations to adopt the service.

advantage’ of the innovation, as well as the salutary effects of the ‘social system’ and the positive role of an authoritative body in encouraging the adoption of mobile applications.

Conclusions Applying the diffusion of innovation theory provides a comprehensive framework that better explains the different adoption rates of mobile data applications across various countries. Specifically, countries with high Internet usage and relatively low personal computer penetration, and relatively high cellular penetration rates, such as Japan, Hong Kong and Taiwan, tend to see mobile access devices such as cellphones as providing a ‘relative advantage’ in enjoying the benefits of email and short messaging— two of the more popular applications of the fixed Internet. From a diffusion of innovation approach, this would suggest that countries with similar characteristics, such as the Philippines, Malaysia and China, will see faster acceptance of mobile data applications. Furthermore, from the diffusion of innovation approach, Korea represents a happy confluence of the positive aspects of all the components of diffusion of innovation, particularly the importance of ‘relative

References 1

Interview with Damon Gonzalez, Senior Director, ZOOP International, 8 May 2003.

2

Elkin, Tobi. AT&T Wireless to Drive Texting Through Alliance with Idol II. Advertising Age, Chicago, 13 Jan. 2003.

3

McKenna, Ted. SMS: Better Late than Never. Telecommunications Americas, Nov. 2002, 36(12), p. 19.

4

Kearney, A. T. Mobinet Index #5. Aug. 2002. http://www.atkearney.com

5

Nir, Kshetri, and Cheung, Maggie Kei. What Factors Are Driving China’s Mobile Diffusion. Electronic Markets, 2002, 12(1), pp. 22–26.

6

Evans, P., and Wurster, T. S. Strategy and the New Economics of Information. Harvard Business Review, Sept.–Oct. 1997, pp. 70–82.

7

Ito, Mizuko, and Daisuke, Okabe. Mobile Phones, Japanese Youth, and the Replacement of Social Contact. Paper presented at Front Stage-Back Stage: Mobile Communications and the Renegotiation of the Social Sphere Conference, Grimstand, Norway, 22–24 June 2003.

8

Baldi, Stefan, and Thaung, Heike Pyu-Pyu. The Entertaining Way to M-Commerce: Japan’s Approach to the Mobile Internet— A Model for Europe? Electronic Markets, 12(1), pp: 6–13.

9

These models are discussed in: Carey, John. ‘The Market for New Residential Services’ in Integrated Broadband Networks: The Public Policy Issues, Elton, Martin C. J. (ed.), North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1991.

Figure 9 Factors influencing USC students to subscribe to universal mobile payment services Peers using smart phones on campus Better graphics and multimedia Influence of friends Ability to access credit union (financial) Ability to renew books Ability to register for classes Ability to receive emails Ability to use at dining facilitie Ability to buy football tickets Ease of use of device Lower price of device Lower connection charges Security of transactions Maintenance of privacy

33.71 39.64 43.33 46.3 47.44 51.85 56.39 57.78 60.37 67.03 68.53

10 Rogers, Everett M. Diffusion of Innovations, The Free Press, New York, 1962. 77 81.4 82.33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Percentage responding ‘Important’ or ‘Very Important’

Opportunistic initial pre-trial survey for some 275 students at the University of Southern California on factors that would encourage them to participate in to the Universal Mobile Payment Systems (UMPS) Market Research Trial.The UMPS is 3-year USC-ZOOP international research market trial that is scheduled to begin in August 2003 to test requirements for user acceptance of advanced mobile data applications in the US market.

6

11 Pereira, Francis and Fife, Elizabeth. Meeting Consumer Needs on the Internet: Successful Business Models. The Journal of the Institution of British Telecommunications Engineers, July–Sept. 2000, 1(3). 12 Funk, Jeffrey. The Mobile Internet Market: Lessons from Japan’s i-mode System. Paper presented at The E-Business Transformation: Sector Developments and Policy Implications. 26–27 Sept. 2000.

Session A

13 Mizukoshi, Yutaka, Okino, Kimihide and Tardy, Olivier. Lessons from Japan. Telephony, 2001, 240(3), p. 92–96.

28 Dornan, Andy. Mobile Messaging: E-Mail As It was Meant to Be? Network Magazine, 1 Feb. 2003, p. 34

45 Clark, Robert. The NTT DoCoMo Success Story. American’s Network, 1 Mar. 2000, 104(4).

14 International Telecommunications Union. Internet Indicators. http://www.itu.int/ITUD/ict/statistics

29 Lee, Yeonsoo, and Kim, Jinwoo. What is the Mobile Internet for? A Cross-National Study on the Value Structure of the Mobile Internet. Working Paper Series, Human– Computer Interaction Lab, Feb. 2003. http://hci.yonsei.ac.kr

46 Ito, Mizuko, and Daisuke, Okabe. Mobile Phones, Japanese Youth, and the RePlacement of Social Contact. http:// www.itofisher.com

15 Stiehler, A., and Wichmann, T. Mobile Internet in Japan—Lessons for Europe. European Payment Observatory Newsletter, No. 2, Oct. 2000. 16 The Economist. No Text Please, We’re Americans. The Economist, London, 5 Apr. 2003, p. 58.

30 Lee,Y., Kim, H., Lee, I., and Kim, J. The Empirical Study on Use Value of the Mobile Internet. Proceedings of Korean Human-Computer Interaction, Kangwondo, Korea, Feb. 2002.

17 Pritchard, Chris. The World’s TextMessaging Capital. Marketing Magazine, 107(48), p. 8.

31 OECD, 2001.

18 International Telecommunications Union. Internet for A Mobile Generation: Executive Summary. Geneva, ITU, 2002, p. 5.

33 SK Telecom. http://www.sktelecom.com.

19 International Telecommunications Union. Mobile Cellular Indicators. http:// www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics 20 Fife, Elizabeth, and Pereira, Francis. Mobile Wireless Outlook Report 2002. Center for Telecom Management, Los Angeles, Jan. 2003. 21 Fife, Elizabeth, and Pereira, Francis. Mobile Wireless Outlook Report 2002, op. cit. 22 International Telecommunications Union. Internet Indicators and Mobile Cellular Indicators, op. cit. 23 Lee, Heejin Lee; O’Keefe, Robert; and Yum, Kyounglim. The Growth of Broadband and Electronic Commerce in South Korea: Contributing Factors. The Information Society, 19(1), pp. 18-93, 2003. 24 McKenna, Ted. SMS: Better Late than Never. Telecommunications Americas, Nov. 2002, 36(12), p. 19. 25 Ling, Connie. Hong Kong and Singapore may have hit Saturation Point for Mobile Phone Usage. Wall St. Journal, 16 Jan. 2002. 26 Baldi, Stefan and Thaung, Heike Pyu-Pyu. op.cit. p. 9. 27 Hamilton, David. Going Places: Mobile Commerce Takes the Internet into a Whole New Uncharted World. Wall Street Journal, E-Commerce Special Report, 11 Dec. 2000. R3.

32 Lee, op. cit., p. 22.

34 International Telecommunications Union. Internet for a Mobile Generation. op.cit. 35 Li, Francis. Radio/Television Broadcasting Equipment. Industry Sector Analysis, National Trade Data Base, US Department of Commerce, 1 Jan. 1996.

47 Ito, op.cit., p. 3.

Biography

Elizabeth Fife University of Southern California Elizabeth Fife is a principal researcher at the Center for Telecom Management. She received her Ph.D. in International Relations from the University of Southern California and has done extensive research on innovation and IT issues in the European Union. She teaches Technical Communications in the Department of Engineering at the university.

36 Hun Shih, Toh. Singapore At Home and Abroad. Business Times, 8 Apr. 1999, p. 2. 37 The Economist. Government and the Internet: A Survey. The Economist, 24 June 2000, 17. 38 Cable and Satellite Asia. No Couch Potatoes? Cable and Satellite Asia, July 1997, p. 18. 39 Santiago, Tony. Singapore’s E-commerce Net Strategy Bears Fruit. Electronic Engineering Times, 10 June 2000. 40 Department of Commerce. Broadband Network. US Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, March 2001. 41 Heejin, Lee, et al. op. cit. p. 84.

Francis Pereira University of Southern California Francis Pereira is a principal researcher at the Center for Telecom Management. Francis received his Ph.D. in Political Economy and Public Policy from the University of Southern California. He is also an Assistant Clinical Professor in the Information and Operations Management Department at the Marshall School of Business where he teaches courses in Economics, Electronic Commerce and Statistics.

42 Cho, C. R., and Meer, S. A. Information Superhighway Project. International Market Insights, US Department of Commerce, 25 Mar. 1998. 43 Lee, Heejin, et el. op. cit. p. 87. 44 Collins, Joyce. Japan Gives Thumbs-up to Silent Mobiles. Daily Telegraph, Aug. 2000, p. 26.

7