The Magic of the New: How Job Changes Affect Job

2 downloads 0 Views 402KB Size Report
Keywords: job satisfaction; job changes; new job; honeymoon-hangover effect; plant closure. Acknowledgements: The authors are very grateful to Laszlo ...
IAAEU Discussion Paper Series in Economics No. 05/2014 



The Magic of the New: How Job Changes Affect Job Satisfaction  

Adrian Chadi, Clemens Hetschko

February 2014 

Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU) 54286 Trier www.iaaeu.de

The Magic of the New: How Job Changes Affect Job Satisfaction Adrian Chadi 

Clemens Hetschko



,$$(88QLYHUVLWlW7ULHU 

)UHLH8QLYHUVLWlW%HUOLQ 

February 2014 Abstract :HLQYHVWLJDWHDFUXFLDOHYHQWIRUMREVDWLVIDFWLRQFKDQJLQJWKHZRUNSODFH)RUUHSUHVHQWDWLYH *HUPDQSDQHOGDWDZHVKRZWKDWWKHUHDVRQZK\WKHSUHYLRXVHPSOR\PHQWHQGHGLVVWURQJO\ OLQNHGWRWKHVDWLVIDFWLRQZLWKWKHQHZMRE:KHQZRUNHUVLQLWLDWHDFKDQJHRIHPSOR\HUWKH\ H[SHULHQFHUHODWLYHO\KLJKMREVDWLVIDFWLRQWKRXJKRQO\LQWKHVKRUWWHUP7RWHVWFDXVDOLW\ZH H[SORLW SODQW FORVXUH DV H[RJHQRXV WULJJHU RI MRE VZLWFKLQJ DQG ILQG QR FDXVDO HIIHFW RI MRE FKDQJHVRQMREVDWLVIDFWLRQ2XUILQGLQJVFRQFHUQUHVHDUFKRQZRUNHUV¶ZHOOEHLQJDVZHOODV ODERUPDUNHWDQGKXPDQUHVRXUFHSROLFLHV  Research highlights ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒ   

6WDUWLQJDMREDWDGLIIHUHQWHPSOR\HULVRQDYHUDJHOLQNHGWRYHU\KLJKMREVDWLVIDFWLRQ 7KHKXJHQHZMREHIIHFWUHYHDOHGLVGULYHQE\WKHPDMRULW\RIYROXQWDU\MREFKDQJHV &DXVDOLW\LVQRWJLYHQDVWKHHIIHFWGLVDSSHDUVLQFDVHVRIH[RJHQRXVO\WULJJHUHGVZLWFKHV )RUYROXQWDU\MREFKDQJHVVDWLVIDFWLRQZLWKWKHQHZMREGHFOLQHVVWURQJO\RYHUWLPH

JEL Classification: ,--0 Keywords: MREVDWLVIDFWLRQMREFKDQJHVQHZMREKRQH\PRRQKDQJRYHUHIIHFWSODQWFORVXUH

Acknowledgements:7KHDXWKRUVDUHYHU\JUDWHIXOWR/DV]OR*RHUNH0DUNXV-DQVHU3DWULFN.DPSN|WWHU6DFKD .DSRRU9DQHVVD0HUWLQV6XVDQQH6WHIIHVDVZHOODVWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVRIWKH1HZ)LUPVDQGWKH4XDOLW\RI:RUN :RUNVKRS DW WKH ,$: 7ELQJHQ WKH +XPDQ 5HVRXUFH 0DQDJHPHQW :RUNVKRS DW WKH =(: 0DQQKHLP WKH  ,$$(8VHPLQDUDQGWKHWK:RUNVKRSLQ(FRQRPLFV7ULHU

 8QLYHUVLWlW 7ULHU ,QVWLWXWH IRU /DERXU /DZ DQG ,QGXVWULDO 5HODWLRQV LQ WKH (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ ,$$(8  %HKULQJVWUD‰H'7ULHU&KDGL#LDDHXGH

 )UHLH 8QLYHUVLWlW %HUOLQ 6FKRRO RI %XVLQHVV DQG (FRQRPLFV %ROW]PDQQVWUD‰H  ' %HUOLQ &OHPHQV+HWVFKNR#IXEHUOLQGH

 

Your heart must always be ready to leave, and ready to begin again, must form new bonds with courage and without regret. Every beginning offers a magic power that protects us and helps us to endure. 1

1. Job Changes and Job Satisfaction ,QStagesRQHRIKLVPRVWIDPRXVDQGSUREDEO\PRVWIUHTXHQWO\FLWHGSRHPV+HUPDQQ+HVVH GHVFULEHV HDFK HQG RI D VWDJH LQ OLIH DV SDUW RI D QHZ EHJLQQLQJ 7KH VWDWHPHQW ³HYHU\ EHJLQQLQJRIIHUVDPDJLFSRZHU´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¶MREVDWLVIDFWLRQ &KDGLDQG +HWVFKNR   ZH VKRZ WKDW D VWULNLQJ QHZ MRE HIIHFW ELDVHV WKH MRE VDWLVIDFWLRQ RI WHPSRUDU\ FRPSDUHG WR SHUPDQHQW ZRUNHUV XSZDUGV VLQFH WKH IRUPHU DUH REVHUYHG PXFK 

Source:)LVFKHU SDUW9SRHPOO ([WUDFWIURP³6WDJHV´ RULJLQDOWLWOH³6WXIHQ´ ZULWWHQE\ +HUPDQQ+HVVHLQ  (J&ODUNHWDO  &ODUN  6KLHOGVDQG:KHDWOH\3ULFH  'HOIJDDXZ  /pY\*DUERXD HWDO  6RXVD3R]DDQG6RXVD3R]D  %|FNHUPDQDQG,OPDNXQQDV  *UHHQ  

 

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µKRQH\PRRQKDQJRYHU HIIHFW¶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¶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¶ PRWLYDWLRQ SHUIRUPDQFH DQG LQ FRQVHTXHQFH UHZDUGV DUH JHQHUDOO\ DERYHDYHUDJH ZKHQ HPSOR\HHVILQGWKHPVHOYHVLQDQHZHQYLURQPHQW



8VLQJGDWDRIWKH%ULWLVK+RXVHKROG3DQHO6WXG\ERWKVWXGLHVILQGMREVDWLVIDFWLRQSHDNVLQDQHZMREIROORZHG E\DGDSWDWLRQ*HRUJHOOLVDQG7DEYXPD  XVHMREVDWLVIDFWLRQDVDQLQGLFDWRUIRUSXEOLFVHUYLFHPRWLYDWLRQ DQG DUJXH WKDW DGDSWDWLRQ WR D QHZ MRE LV ZHDNHU ZKHQ ZRUNHUV VZLWFK LQWR WKH SXEOLF VHFWRU *LHOHQ   LQYHVWLJDWHVWKHHIIHFWVRITXLWVRQMREPDWFKTXDOLW\IRUZKLFKVKHXVHVMREVDWLVIDFWLRQDVDSUR[\

 

)URPWKHSHUVSHFWLYHRIHFRQRPLFVDILQGLQJDFFRUGLQJWRZKLFKQRWRQO\YROXQWDU\EXWDOVR LQYROXQWDU\ MRE FKDQJHV VWUHQJWKHQ ZRUNHUV¶ ZHOIDUH ZRXOG FRQWUDGLFW WKH UDWLRQDOLW\ RI FKRLFHVWKDWPLFURHFRQRPLFWKHRU\PRVWO\DGRSWV3RWHQWLDOSROLF\LPSOLFDWLRQVKRZHYHUDUH VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG-XVWDVGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQIURPLQFUHDVHGIOH[LELOLVDWLRQRIWKHODERUPDUNHWFDQ EHXVHGWRDUJXHDJDLQVWVXFKSROLF\PHDVXUHVSRVLWLYHHIIHFWVRQZRUNHUV¶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±MRE VDWLVIDFWLRQ UHODWLRQVKLS FRQFHUQV SHUVRQQHO HFRQRPLFVDQGKXPDQUHVRXUFHPDQDJHPHQWDVZHOO$VPHQWLRQHGDERYHZRUNUHODWHGZHOO EHLQJLVOLQNHGWRVHYHUDOLPSRUWDQWRUJDQL]DWLRQDOIDFWRUVVXFKDVSHUIRUPDQFHDQGWXUQRYHU $OVR LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI QHZFRPHU DGMXVWPHQW MRE VDWLVIDFWLRQ LV RQH RI WKH NH\ RXWFRPH YDULDEOHV %DXHUHWDO +HQFHZKHQ SHRSOH ZKR VZLWFKHGUHFHQWO\ DUH YHU\ KDSS\ LQ JHQHUDO EXW RQO\ DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ WKLV SKHQRPHQRQ PD\ FRUUHVSRQG WR RWKHU LPSRUWDQW RXWFRPHVDVZHOO 7KHSUHVHQWVWXG\LQYHVWLJDWHVKRZVWURQJO\MREVDWLVIDFWLRQLVDIIHFWHGE\VWDUWLQJDQHZ MRE $V ZH H[SHFW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ MRE FKDQJHV DQG MRE VDWLVIDFWLRQ WR EH KLJKO\ HQGRJHQRXV ZH DUH SDUWLFXODUO\ FRQFHUQHG DERXW WKH UROH RI VHOHFWLYLW\ LQ WKLV FRQWH[W ([SORLWLQJ WKH RSSRUWXQLWLHV RI RXU GDWD ZH FDQ LQYHVWLJDWH WKH FDXVDOLW\ TXHVWLRQ E\ GLVWLQJXLVKLQJ EHWZHHQ HQGRJHQRXVO\ DQG H[RJHQRXVO\ WULJJHUHG PRYHV 7R PDNH WKLV GLVWLQFWLRQ LQGHSHQGHQW RI WKH FRPSOH[ LVVXH WKDW LV PRELOLW\ ZLWKLQ ILUPV ZH IRFXV RQ MRE FKDQJHV EHWZHHQ HPSOR\HUV 6LPLODU WR UHVHDUFK RQ LQYROXQWDU\ DQG YROXQWDU\ HQWULHV LQWR XQHPSOR\PHQW .DVVHQERHKPHU DQG +DLVNHQ'H1HZ   ZH XVH *HUPDQ 6RFLR (FRQRPLF 3DQHO GDWD :DJQHU HW DO  WRVHSDUDWHEHWZHHQ IRXU UHDVRQV RI MRE FKDQJHV IURP WKH HPSOR\HH¶V SRLQW RI YLHZ TXLW PXWXDO DJUHHPHQW DERXW HPSOR\PHQW WHUPLQDWLRQ



,Q OLQH ZLWK RWKHU VWXGLHV ZH XVH WKH WHUPV MRE FKDQJHV FKDQJHV RI ZRUNSODFH DQG DOVR HPSOR\HU FKDQJHV LQWHUFKDQJHDEO\

 

GLVPLVVDO DQG SODQW FORVXUH 7KH ODVW WULJJHU LV RI VSHFLDO LPSRUWDQFH IRU RXU HPSLULFDO LGHQWLILFDWLRQ VWUDWHJ\ 3ODQW FORVXUHV DUH H[RJHQRXV HYHQWV WKDW DUH QRW GHWHUPLQHG E\ LQGLYLGXDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRUZRUNHUV¶DFWLRQV7KLVHQDEOHVXVWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHFDXVDOHIIHFW RIMREFKDQJHVRQMREVDWLVIDFWLRQLQDQDWXUDOODERUPDUNHWVFHQDULR :H SURFHHG DV IROORZV 7KH IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQ GHVFULEHV RXU GDWDEDVH DQG PHWKRGRORJ\ $VZHXVHH[RJHQRXVYDULDWLRQLQMREVZLWFKLQJWKHPHDQDQDO\VLVLQWKHWKLUGFKDSWHUDOUHDG\ HQDEOHVXVWRH[SUHVVSUHOLPLQDU\UHVXOWV$IWHUZDUGVZHSUHVHQWPXOWLSOHUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VHV DQG VHQVLWLYLW\ DQDO\VHV 6HFWLRQV  DQG   FRQILUPLQJ RXU PDLQ ILQGLQJV ZKLFK ZH ILQDOO\ FRQFOXGHDQGGLVFXVVLQ6HFWLRQ 2. Empirical Framework 2.1 Data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³+RZ VDWLVILHG DUH \RX ZLWK \RXU MRE" 3OHDVH DQVZHU RQ D VFDOH UDQJLQJ IURP  µFRPSOHWHO\ GLVVDWLVILHG¶  WR  µFRPSOHWHO\ VDWLVILHG¶ ´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¶ FRPSDULVRQV EHWZHHQ LQLWLDO DQG QHZMRE 6XEVHFWLRQ  2.2 Empirical Strategy and Methodology 2XUHPSLULFDODQDO\VLVFRYHUVWKUHHVWHSV)LUVWO\ZHDSSO\DPHDQDQDO\VLVGHVFULELQJKRZ WKHIRXUMREFKDQJHWULJJHUVOHDGWRGLIIHUHQWMREVDWLVIDFWLRQWUDMHFWRULHVDURXQGMREFKDQJHV 6HFWLRQ 7KLVDGGVWRWKHGHVFULSWLYHDQDO\VLVRIWKHMXVWPHQWLRQHGFRPSDULVRQVEHWZHHQ WKHQHZDQGWKHIRUPHUMRE

 

,Q D VHFRQG VWHS ZH PDNH XVH RI WKH 62(3¶V SDQHO VWUXFWXUH DQG LPSOHPHQW PXOWLSOH UHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VHVZLWKLQGLYLGXDO Vi DQGWLPH Wt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quitagreed dismissalclosure(DFKW\SHFDQEHGLVWLQJXLVKHGE\IRXUSRLQWVLQWLPHEHIRUHDQGDIWHUWKH VZLWFK FRYHUHG E\ YHFWRU L  t=1 DQG t=2 GHQRWH WKH ODVW 62(3 LQWHUYLHZV EHIRUH WKH MRE FKDQJH DQG t=3 DQG t=4 WKH ILUVW WZR LQWHUYLHZV DIWHUZDUGV )RU LQVWDQFH closure

t=3 LV WKH

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it )7KHVHVKRFNVPD\ DIIHFWZHOOEHLQJQRWRQO\DWWKHWLPHWKH\KDSSHQEXWDOVRLQWKHORQJUXQ+HQFHZHWDNH VHYHUDOOLIHFLUFXPVWDQFHV YHFWRU Cit LQWRDFFRXQW7KHVHDUHWKHQXPEHURIFKLOGUHQLQWKH KRXVHKROG KDYLQJ D SDUWQHU VRPHRQH LQ QHHG RI FDUH OLYLQJ LQ WKH KRXVHKROG DQG KRPH RZQHUVKLS7KHUHE\ZHDOVRFRQVLGHUWKHYDULDEOHVDJHVTXDUHGRYHUQLJKWVWD\VLQKRVSLWDOLQ WKH ODVW \HDU DV ZHOO DV EHLQJ GLVDEOHG )LQDOO\ ZH WHVW WKH LPSDFW RI MRE FKDUDFWHULVWLFV YHFWRU X it  ZKLFK PLJKW H[SODLQ ERWK GHFUHDVLQJ VDWLVIDFWLRQ EHIRUH DQG LQFUHDVLQJ VDWLVIDFWLRQ DIWHU D FKDQJH RI ZRUNSODFH 7KH IHDWXUHV FRQVLGHUHG DUH HDUQLQJV RYHUWLPH KRXUV IXOOWLPH FRPSDQ\ VL]H VHFWRUV RFFXSDWLRQ DQG DXWRQRP\ LQ RFFXSDWLRQDO DFWLRQV 7KLVOHDGVWRWKHIROORZLQJPRGHO

JSit

Lit E  Sit F  Cit G  X it I  Vi  Wt  Hit 

 

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eference Points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t=1 DV UHIHUHQFH SRLQW +RZHYHU WKLV VKLIWLQJ RI WKH WLPHSRLQWPD\PLWLJDWHEXWQRWIXOO\VROYHWKHSUREOHP $OWHUQDWLYHO\ ZH LQWHUSUHW WKHt=3 FRHIILFLHQWV RI RXU IL[HGHIIHFWV HVWLPDWHV DV QHZ MRE HIIHFWV ,Q VR GRLQJ ZH FRQVLGHU WKH LQGLYLGXDO PHDQ ZHOOEHLQJ RYHU WLPH DV WKH UHIHUHQFH SRLQW 7KLV VWUDWHJ\ LV ZHOO VXLWHG LI DGDSWDWLRQ RFFXUV DIWHU MRE FKDQJHV DV LW GRHV ZLWK UHVSHFWWRPDQ\OLIHHYHQWV HJ)UHGHULFNDQG/RHZHQVWHLQ&ODUNHWDO 6LQFHZH LQGHHGILQGWKDWFKDQJHVLQZHOOEHLQJDIWHUMREVZLWFKHVDUHQRWVXVWDLQDEOHLQWKHORQJUXQ

 

KDQJRYHUHIIHFW LQGLYLGXDOPHDQMREVDWLVIDFWLRQFRQVWLWXWHVDQDSSURSULDWHUHIHUHQFHSRLQW :HGLVFXVVWKHLVVXHRIWKHUHIHUHQFHSRLQWIXUWKHULQ6HFWLRQ 3. Mean Analysis 3.1 Graphical Analysis :H VWDUW RXU LQYHVWLJDWLRQ E\ H[DPLQLQJ MRE VDWLVIDFWLRQ WUDMHFWRULHV DURXQG MRE FKDQJHV GLVWLQJXLVKHGEHWZHHQWKHIRXUWULJJHUVRIVZLWFKHV 5HIHUULQJWRWKHSUHYLRXVGLVFXVVLRQRQ UHIHUHQFH SRLQWV ZH FRQVLGHU JURXSVSHFLILFDYHUDJHVLQMREVDWLVIDFWLRQRIHDFKVXEVDPSOH IRU ZKLFK ZH XVH DOO DYDLODEOH GDWD )LJXUH  VKRZV WKH RXWFRPHV RI WKLV ILUVW VWHS RI WKH HPSLULFDODQDO\VLVDQGGHPRQVWUDWHVWKDWMREVDWLVIDFWLRQYDULHVVXEVWDQWLDOO\EHIRUHDQGDIWHU HPSOR\HUFKDQJHV ,QDOOFDVHVZHREVHUYHH[WUHPHGHFOLQHVLQWKHIRUPHUMRE IURPt=1 WR t=2)EHIRUHZRUNHUVVZLWFKWRDQHZHPSOR\PHQW$IWHUZDUGVKRZHYHURQO\WKUHHRIWKHIRXU JURXSVVKRZWKHKRQH\PRRQKDQJRYHUSDWWHUQDVGHVFULEHGE\%RVZHOOHWDO   7KHMREVDWLVIDFWLRQRISHRSOHZKRUHVLJQ )LJXUH DJUHHWRWHUPLQDWHWKHHPSOR\PHQW UHODWLRQ )LJXUH   RU DUH GLVPLVVHG )LJXUH   LQFUHDVHV DQG VXUSDVVHV ERWK WKH JURXS VSHFLILFDYHUDJHDQGWKHOHYHOLQt=1VLJQLILFDQWO\5HVLJQLQJSHRSOHVKRZWKHKLJKHVWPDUN XS FRPSDUHG WR WKHLU PHDQ VDWLVIDFWLRQ DERXW  SRLQWV  $IWHU t=3 WKH WKUHH JURXSV VXEVWDQWLDOO\ ORVH VDWLVIDFWLRQ DQG HQG XS VOLJKWO\ DERYH TXLWV  RU ZLWKLQ WKH FRQILGHQFH LQWHUYDOV RI WKHLU JURXSVSHFLILF PHDQ &RPSDUHG WR t=1 RQO\ WKRVH ZKR UHVLJQHG DUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ EHWWHU RII LQ t=4 ,Q JHQHUDO WKH KDQJRYHU FRVWV DOPRVW WKH ZKROH KRQH\PRRQ ZLWKLQRQH\HDU,QFRQWUDVWWRWKHSDWWHUQVGHVFULEHGVRIDULQWKLVVHFWLRQWKHMREVDWLVIDFWLRQ WUDMHFWRU\ RI SHRSOH ZKR FKDQJH WKHLU MREV EHFDXVH RI SODQW FORVXUHV GRHV QRW OHDG WR D KRQH\PRRQ )LJXUH   8VLQJ WKH MRE VDWLVIDFWLRQ LQ t=1 DV DQ DOWHUQDWLYH UHIHUHQFH SRLQW OHDGVWRWKHVDPHFRQFOXVLRQ 



$SSO\LQJWKLVG\QDPLFSHUVSHFWLYHJRHVDORQJZLWKDORVVRIREVHUYDWLRQVDVPHQWLRQHGDERYH)RULQVWDQFH XVLQJODJVDQGOHDGVLQMREVDWLVIDFWLRQGRHVQRWDOORZXVWRH[DPLQHMREFKDQJHVDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRUDWWKHHQGRI RXULQYHVWLJDWLRQSHULRG6WLOOZHKDYHPRUHWKDQKXQGUHGFDVHVIRUHDFKW\SHRIMREFKDQJH

 

Figure 1. Mean Job Satisfaction and the Voluntariness of Job Changes (1.2) Mutually agreed termination

8

8

7.5

7.5

Average job satisfaction

Average job satisfaction

(1.1) Quits

7 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 t=1

t=2

t=3

7 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 t=1

t=4

t=2

8

8

7.5

7.5

7 6.5 6 5.5 5 t=2

t=4

(1.4) Plant closure

Average job satisfaction

Average job satisfaction

(1.3) Dismissals

4.5 t=1

t=3 Year

Year

t=3

7 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 t=1

t=4

Year

t=2

t=3

t=4

Year

Notes: Points in time (t=1,2,3,4) mark time lags of approximately one year. Job changes take place between t=2 and t=3. Red lines denote switching because of the trigger mentioned in the respective diagram title. Blue lines represent individual job satisfaction means of each group. Dashed lines denote 95% confidence intervals.

 3.2 Improvements and Aggravations in Job Characteristics 7KHLQIRUPDWLRQRQKRZSHRSOHYLHZWKHLUQHZMRELQFRPSDULVRQWRWKHSUHYLRXVRQHVKHGV VRPH OLJKW RQ WKH UHDVRQV IRU YROXQWDU\ MRE FKDQJHV RQ WKH RQH KDQG DQG LW KHOSV WR XQGHUVWDQGZK\LQYROXQWDU\MREFKDQJHUVGRQRWH[SHULHQFHKRQH\PRRQHIIHFWVRQWKHRWKHU KDQG)LJXUHGLVSOD\VWKHVKDUHVRIFKDQJHUVIRUHDFKWULJJHUZKRUHSRUWLPSURYHPHQWVDQG DJJUDYDWLRQVLQMREFKDUDFWHULVWLFV

 

 Figure 2. Job Changes and Job Characteristics

Improvements

 

Ɣ 7\SHRIZRUN



Ɣ (DUQLQJV 

Ɣ %HQHILWV Ɣ 3URPRWLRQ



Ɣ :RUNORDG Aggravations



Ɣ :D\WRZRUN



Ɣ -REVHFXULW\ Ɣ 7LPH

          3ODQWFORVXUH

       

       

'LVPLVVDO

0XWXDOO\DJUHHG WHUPLQDWLRQ

        4XLW

 Note. The remaining shares of changers neither improve nor deteriorate in the respective characteristic.

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

 

ZRUNHUV ZKR UHVLJQ DJUHH WR WHUPLQDWH WKHLU HPSOR\PHQW DQG WKRXJK OHVV SURQRXQFHG DUH GLVPLVVHGLPSURYHWKHLUVLWXDWLRQZKHQWKH\VZLWFKLQFRQWUDVWWRWKRVHZKRVZLWFKWKHLUMREV GXHWRSODQWFORVXUHV,IYROXQWDU\MREFKDQJHVDUHDWOHDVWWRVRPHH[WHQWPRWLYDWHGE\WKHMRE FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQDO\]HG WKH GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH IRXU JURXSV VWUHQJWKHQ RXU H[SHFWHG RUGHURIWULJJHUVDVPHDVXUHGE\YROXQWDULQHVV 4. Regression Analyses 4.1 The New Job Effect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¶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¶ QHZ MREV EXW WKH SKHQRPHQRQLVQRWFDXVDOO\OLQNHGWRWKHMREFKDQJHLWVHOI 

 

 Table 1. The New Job Effect Specification -REFKDQJH -REFKDQJHGXHWRTXLW  -REFKDQJHGXHWRPXWXDODJUHHPHQW  -REFKDQJHGXHWRGLVPLVVDO  -REFKDQJHGXHWRSODQWFORVXUH