The Nature of Urban Household Water Demand ... - ScienceDirect.com

460 downloads 0 Views 721KB Size Report
Background of the study ... In Germany water consumption per person amounts to 121 litres which is enough ... Amarasinghe et al (2006) study shows that demand for water in India is projected to surpass its ..... households with females and children, because the residents in the municipal area do not receive water in such a.
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect Procedia Environmental Sciences 37 (2017) 182 – 194

,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFH±*UHHQ8UEDQLVP*8

7KHQDWXUHRIXUEDQKRXVHKROGZDWHUGHPDQGDQGFRQVXPSWLRQLQ 0DNKDGR/RFDO0XQLFLSDOLW\$FDVHVWXG\RI0DNKDGR1HZWRZQ /XYLPED5DPXORQJR 'U161HWKHQJZH3URI$0XV\RNL University of Venda Private bag X5050 Thohoyandou 0950,South Africa

$EVWUDFW :DWHUFULVLVKDVEHFRPHDQRUPZRUOGZLGHDVPDQ\FRXQWULHVDUHHQWHULQJDQHUDRIVHYHUHZDWHUVKRUWDJH:DWHUSOD\VDYLWDO UROH ZLWKLQ KRXVHKROGV WKRXJK XUEDQ ZDWHU DXWKRULWLHV DQG ZDWHU SODQQHUV DUH VWUXJJOLQJ WR VDWLVI\ WKH JURZLQJ XUEDQ ZDWHU GHPDQGV DQG DW WKH VDPH WLPH IDLOLQJ WR DFKLHYH VXVWDLQDEOH XUEDQ ZDWHU V\VWHPV :DWHU FRQVXPSWLRQ ZDV JXLGHG E\ D &DOFXODWLRQE\*UDJ,QRUGHUWRJHWDZLGHURYHUYLHZRIWKHDFWXDOFRQVXPSWLRQDVXUYH\XVLQJPHWUHZDWHUUHFRUGVZDV GRQHIRUWKUHHPRQWKVDQGFRPSDUHGZLWKRWKHUXUEDQZRUOGZLGHVWDQGDUGVLQRUGHUWRLGHQWLI\LIWKHUHLVDQ\JDS  © 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license ‹7KH$XWKRUV3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU%9 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). 3HHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RIWKHRUJDQL]LQJFRPPLWWHHRI*8 Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of GU 2016

Keywords:3RSXODWLRQJURZWK:DWHUFRQVXPSWLRQ:DWHUGHPDQG:DWHUGLVWULEXWLRQ:DWHUVXSSO\

,QWURGXFWLRQ %DFNJURXQGRIWKHVWXG\ 7KH GHPDQG IRU ZDWHU DPRQJ LQGXVWULHV DQG DJULFXOWXUH ZRUOGZLGH LV LQFUHDVLQJ VLJQLILFDQWO\ GXH WR SRSXODWLRQ JURZWKDQGHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW:DWHUSOD\VDYLWDOUROHZLWKLQKRXVHKROGVWKRXJKXUEDQZDWHUDXWKRULWLHVDQG ZDWHUSODQQHUVDUHVWUXJJOLQJWRVDWLVI\WKHJURZLQJXUEDQZDWHUGHPDQGVDQGDWWKHVDPHWLPHIDLOLQJWRDFKLHYH VXVWDLQDEOHXUEDQZDWHUV\VWHPV7KHZRUOGSRSXODWLRQLVH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHIURPELOOLRQFXUUHQWO\WRELOOLRQ E\DQGRYHUELOOLRQE\ =KDQJ 7RWVXNDet al  SRLQWHGRXWWKDWRQHRIWKHPRVWFRPPRQ DSSURDFKHVRIFRQWUROOLQJZDWHUGHPDQGWRFRSHZLWKLQDGHTXDWHZDWHUUHVRXUFHVLVWKHXVHRILQWHUPLWWHQWVXSSOLHV E\ SK\VLFDO FXWRII IRU PRVW RI WKH GD\ DQG OLPLWLQJ WKH FRQVXPHU¶V DELOLW\ WR FROOHFW ZDWHU ,Q 6RXWK $VLD LW LV 



&RUUHVSRQGLQJ$XWKRU Email Address:VOXXUDP#JPDLOFRP

1878-0296 © 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of GU 2016 doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2017.03.033

Luvimba Ramulongo et al. / Procedia Environmental Sciences 37 (2017) 182 – 194

183

HVWLPDWHGWKDWDWOHDVWPLOOLRQSHRSOHUHFHLYHVHUYLFHRQO\IRUSHULRGRIDIHZKRXUVGDLO\DQGQHDUO\DOO,QGLDQ FLWLHVDUHUHSRUWHGWRRSHUDWHLQWHUPLWWHQWV\VWHPV 9DLUDYDPRRUWK\et al.,    7KHUHDUHVHYHUDOIDFWRUVWKDWDIIHFWWKHUHVLGHQWLDOKRXVHKROG¶VZDWHUGHPDQG6RPHRIWKHVHIDFWRUVDUHLQFRPHRI KRXVHKROGVSULFHRIZDWHUKRXVHKROGVL]HDJHDQGVH[FRPSRVLWLRQRIWKHIDPLO\PHPEHUVDQGZHDWKHUYDULDEOHV OLNHWHPSHUDWXUHDQGSUHFLSLWDWLRQ $UEXHVet al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et al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

184

Luvimba Ramulongo et al. / Procedia Environmental Sciences 37 (2017) 182 – 194

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et al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

 )LJXUH+RXVHKROGZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQLQ6RXWK$IULFD 6DYLQJZDWHU$TXDULVWD 

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

185

Luvimba Ramulongo et al. / Procedia Environmental Sciences 37 (2017) 182 – 194

Luvimba Ramulongo / Procedia Environmental Sciences 00 (2017) 000–000

6WXG\$UHD

 )LJXUH6WXG\DUHD 6RXUFH$XWKRU

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

186

Luvimba Ramulongo et al. / Procedia Environmental Sciences 37 (2017) 182 – 194

 )LJXUH:DWHUFDSDFLW\RIGDPVIRXQGLQ0DNKDGR/RFDO0XQLFLSDOLW\ 6RXUFH0DNKDGR/RFDO0XQLFLSDOLW\$QQXDOUHSRUW

0HWKRGRORJ\ x

6DPSOLQJSURFHGXUH  3XUSRVLYH VDPSOLQJ ZDV XVHG WR LGHQWLI\ WKH UHOHYDQW RIILFLDOV IRU WKH VWXG\ ZKLFK DUH RIILFLDOV ZLWKLQ WKH ZDWHU VHFWRU 7KH PDLQ JRDO RI SXUSRVLYH VDPSOLQJ LV WR IRFXV RQ SDUWLFXODU FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI D SRSXODWLRQ WKDW DUH RI LQWHUHVW ZKLFK ZLOO DEOH WR DQVZHU WKH UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQV $FFRUGLQJ WR %ODFN   V\VWHPDWLF VDPSOLQJ LV D VWDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGLQYROYLQJWKHVHOHFWLRQRIHOHPHQWVIURPDQRUGHUHGVDPSOLQJIUDPH6\VWHPDWLFVDPSOLQJVWDUWV E\ VHOHFWLQJ DQ HOHPHQW IURP WKH OLVW DW UDQGRP DQG WKHQ HYHU\kWK HOHPHQW LQ WKH IUDPH LV VHOHFWHG 8VLQJ WKLV SURFHGXUHHDFKHOHPHQWLQWKHSRSXODWLRQKDVDNQRZQDQGHTXDOSUREDELOLW\RIVHOHFWLRQ7KHUHVHDUFKHUXVHGWKLV PHWKRGWRREWDLQDVDPSOHLQWHUYDORIWKHKRXVHKROGVZKHUHWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHVZHUHEHDGPLQLVWUDWHG  7KLVLVFDOFXODWHGDVIROORZV . 1Q ZKHUHQLVWKHVDPSOHVL]H DQG1LVWKHSRSXODWLRQVL]H .  .   :KLWH  RIIHUVVWDWLVWLFDOUXOHVXVHGIRULQGLFDWLQJWKHVDPSOHVL]HDVDQLQGLFDWLRQRIZKDWWKHVL]HRIDVDPSOH RXJKWWREHIRUDQ\VFLHQWLILFVRFLDOUHVHDUFK7KH+RXVHKROGFRXQWLQ1HZ7RZQLVWKHUHIRUHJXLGHGE\ZKLWH¶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

Luvimba Ramulongo et al. / Procedia Environmental Sciences 37 (2017) 182 – 194

 &DOFXODWLQJZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQDQGGHPDQG  &RQVXPSWLRQYDULHVIURPKRXVHKROGWRKRXVHKROGWRJHWDZLGHUYLHZRIWKHFRQVXPSWLRQLQ0DNKDGR1HZWRZQ GHULYHGGDWDVHWVZDUHXVHGWRPHDVXUHWKHVHOHFWHGLQGLYLGXDOXVHRIZDWHUXVLQJH[LVWLQJPHWUHUHDGLQJV$FFRUGLQJ WR*UDJWKHDFWXDOZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQLVFDOFXODWHGDVIROORZV  +RXVHKROG DYHUDJH FRQVXPSWLRQ  0D[LPXP UDWH RI GDLO\ ZDWHU FRQVXPSWLRQ  î E\ QXPEHU RI SHRSOH LQ WKH KRXVHKROG   :KHUHWKHDYHUDJHGDLO\ZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQSHUSHUVRQLVFDOFXODWHGDV  0RQWKO\ZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQ · QRGD\VLQDPRQWK · QRRISHRSOHLQWKHKRXVHKROG   7KHDPRXQWRIGDLO\ZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQZDVREWDLQHGIURPWKHPXQLFLSDOLW\DVWKH\UHFRUGPHWUHUHDGLQJVRIHYHU\ KRXVHKROGHYHU\ PRQWK,QRUGHUWRJHWDZLGHURYHUYLHZRIWKHDFWXDOFRQVXPSWLRQDVXUYH\ZDVGRQHIRUWKUHH PRQWKV 7KLV FDOFXODWLRQ KHOSHG WKH UHVHDUFKHU WR LGHQWLI\ ZKHWKHU WKH UHVLGHQWV DUH EHLQJ SURYLGHG ZLWK WKH PLQLPXPZDWHUSURYLVLRQRIOLWUHVDGD\SHUSHUVRQDQGDOVRUHODWHWKHFRQVXPSWLRQZLWK,QGLD¶V%,6 6WDQGDUGRIOLWUHVDGD\SHUSHUVRQ  )RUWKHSXUSRVHVWDWHGDERYHOLWUHVZDVXVHGDVDGHPDQGFRQVWDQWYDOXHIRUWKHHQWLUHWRZQ7KHOLWUHVZDV FKRVHQEHFDXVHWKHFRQVWLWXWLRQUHTXLUHVZDWHUVHUYLFHSURYLGHUVWRPHHWWKHLUFRQVWLWXWLRQDOUHVSRQVLELOLW\WRSURYLGH VXIILFLHQWZDWHUVHUYLFHVWRWKHFRPPXQLW\ZKHUHE\HDFKSHUVRQLVHQWLWOHGWROLWUHVSHUGD\7KHUHIRUHWKH OLWUHVZDVXVHGDVDGHPDQGFRQVWDQWIDFWRU7KHVDPHZDVGRQHZLWKWKH,QGLDQ¶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î E\ WRWDO SRSXODWLRQ  PHJD OLWUHV   7RZQDYHUDJHGHPDQG  &RQVWDQWGHPDQGYDOXH OLWUHV î E\WRWDOSRSXODWLRQ  PHJDOLWUHV   +RXVHKROGDYHUDJH'HPDQG  &RQVWDQWGHPDQGYDOXH OLWUHV î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

187

188

Luvimba Ramulongo et al. / Procedia Environmental Sciences 37 (2017) 182 – 194

DQGIUHTXHQF\RIFRRNLQJVDPSOHGDUHD0RQWKO\H[SHQGLWXUHDQGKRXVHKROGVL]HZDVDOVRWHVWWRVHHLIWKHUHLVDQ\ UHODWLRQVKLSDVVRFLDWHG$0DQQ:KLWQH\7HVWZDVFRQGXFWHGWRWHVWLIWKHUHLVDVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFH H[LVWVEHWZHHQWKHDPRXQWVFXUUHQWO\EHLQJSDLGIRUZDWHUVHUYLFHVLQWKHVWXG\DUHDDQGWKHDPRXQWWKHUHVLGHQWVDUH µZLOOLQJ¶ WR SD\ $ 3HDUVRQ FRUUHODWLRQ ZDV GRQH WR GHWHUPLQH D VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ D IDPLO\¶VSURSRUWLRQRIDGXOWIHPDOHVDQGDKRXVHKROG¶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

EŽ͘ ŽĨ,ŽƵƐĞŚŽůĚƐ

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ϭϲϬϬϬϬ  ϭϰϬϬϬϬ  ϭϭϳϮϮϬ ϭϮϬϬϬϬ  ϵϲϮϳϵ ϭϬϬϬϬϬ  ϳϰϳϮϵ ϴϬϬϬϬ  ϱϴϱϵϬ ϱϮϴϲϴ ϰϴϭϮϲ ϲϬϬϬϬ  ϯϳϱϭϭ ϯϱϵϴϬ ϰϬϬϬϬ Ϯϭϭϭϵ ϭϳϲϲϴ  ϭϰϬϭϮ ϭϮϵϳϴ ϭϮϱϵϭ ϭϮϯϵϰ ϳϰϯϭ ϮϬϬϬϬ  Ϭ  ϭϵϵϲ ϮϬϬϭ ϮϬϭϭ  zĞĂƌ WŝƉĞĚtĂƚĞƌŝŶ ƐŝĚ ĞĚǁĞůůŝŶŐ tĂƚĞƌŽŶ ĐŽŵŵƵŶĂůƐŝĚĞ  WŝƉĞĚǁĂƚĞƌŝŶƐŝĚĞƚŚĞLJĂƌĚ dŽƚĂůĂĐĐĞƐƐƚŽƉŝƉĞĚǁĂƚĞƌ EŽĂĐĐĞƐƐƚŽƉŝƉĞĚ;ƚĂƉͿǁĂƚĞƌ ,ŽƵƐ ĞŚŽůĚƐ    )LJXUH7UHQGVLQWKHQXPEHURIKRXVHKROGVKDYLQJDFFHVVWRSLSHGZDWHUIURPWKHSHULRGLQ0DNKDGR/RFDO0XQLFLSDOLW\

 +RXVHKROGVLQ0DNKDGR/RFDO0XQLFLSDOLW\KDYHFOHDUO\RXWSDFHGWKHUDWHRISRSXODWLRQJURZWKZLWKWKHDYHUDJH QXPEHURILQGLYLGXDOVGZHOOLQJLQDKRXVHKROGGHFUHDVLQJIURPLQWKH\HDUWRLQWKH\HDU,Q WKLVVWXG\WKHUHZDVQRVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWFRUUHODWLRQRIKRXVHKROGV¶PRQWKO\ZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQDPRQJVW KRXVHKROGVZLWKIHPDOHVDQGFKLOGUHQEHFDXVHWKHUHVLGHQWVLQWKHPXQLFLSDODUHDGRQRWUHFHLYHZDWHULQVXFKD PDQQHUWKDWWKH\FDQXVHLWDVWKH\VKRXOGLHWKHZDWHUWKDWWKH\UHFHLYHWKH\KDYHWRXVHLWVSDULQJO\EHFDXVHZDWHU

189

Luvimba Ramulongo et al. / Procedia Environmental Sciences 37 (2017) 182 – 194

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¶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



 )LJXUH$YDLODELOLW\RIWDSZDWHU6RXUFH$XWKRU  

 7KHPDMRUXVHRIZDWHULQWKHKRXVHKROGVZDVFRRNLQJDQGEDWKLQJ  IROORZHGE\ODXQGU\DQGFOHDQLQJ   WKHQJDUGHQLQJDQGFDUZDVKLQJDWDVVHHQLQILJXUH7KHUHVLGHQWVSRLQWHGRXWWKDWLIWKH\ZHUHVXSSOLHGZLWK VXIILFLHQWWKH\ZRXOGZDWHUWKHLUJDUGHQPRUHRIWHQ 

190

Luvimba Ramulongo et al. / Procedia Environmental Sciences 37 (2017) 182 – 194



 )LJXUH0DLQXVHVRIZDWHULQKRXVHKROGV6RXUFH$XWKRU  

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Ȥ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i.e.GRHVDKLJKHUDGXOWIHPDOHSURSRUWLRQUHVXOWVLQKLJKHUPRQWKO\ ZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQRIDKRXVHKROG,WVKRXOGEHUHDOLVHGWKDWPRQWKO\H[SHQGLWXUHRQZDWHUVHUYLFHVZDVXVHGDVDQ LQGLFDWRURIWKHKRXVHKROG¶VPRQWKO\ZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQ$3HDUVRQFRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQWZDVXVHGEDVHGRQWKH IROORZLQJK\SRWKHVLV  +7KHUHLVQRVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQDIDPLO\¶VSURSRUWLRQRIDGXOWIHPDOHVDQGDKRXVHKROG¶V PRQWKO\ZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQ  $ 3HDUVRQ &RUUHODWLRQ YDOXH RI  ZKLFK LV OHVV WKDQ  LQGLFDWHG D YHU\ ZHDN FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH WZR YDULDEOHVRIFRQFHUQ7RWHVWWKHK\SRWKHVLVWKH6LJ 7DLOHG YDOXHZDVXVHG6LQFHWKHDOSKDOHYHOZDVD6LJ 7DLOHG  YDOXH EHORZ RXU OHYHO VLJQLILHG D VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW UHODWLRQVKLS $ 6LJ 7DLOHG  YDOXH RI  ZKLFKLVJUHDWHUWKDQLQGLFDWHGWKDWWKHUHLVQRVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQIDPLO\¶VSURSRUWLRQ RIDGXOWIHPDOHVDQGKRXVHKROG¶VPRQWKO\ZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQWKXVDFFHSWHGWKHQXOOK\SRWKHVLV

Luvimba Ramulongo et al. / Procedia Environmental Sciences 37 (2017) 182 – 194

191

x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

 86*6

6WDQGDUG OLWUHVGD\SHUVRQ  ORZLQFRPHKRXVHKROG  KLJKLQFRPHKRXVHKROG    

81 6RXWK$IULFD¶VFRQVWLWXWLRQ *HUPDQ\ %LV  7KHZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQLQWKHSHULRGRIWKUHHPRQWKVVKRZHGWKDWWKHUHVLGHQWVJHWPRUHWKHOLWUHVDGD\DVVHHQ LQWDEOH7KLVDPRXQWRIZDWHULVPRUHWKDQVXIILFLHQWIRUZDWHUXVH  7DEOH7KHDFWXDOKRXVHKROGZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQLQ0DNKDGR1HZ7RZQIRUWKUHHPRQWKV6RXUFH$XWKRU  

&RQVXPSWLRQ $XJXVW   6HSWHPEHU   2FWREHU   $YHUDJHIRU OLWUHVGD\SHUVRQ WKUHHPRQWKV             !       7KHUHZDVQ¶WPXFKRIDJDSEHWZHHQ0DNDKGR1HZ7RZQDQGRWKHUJOREDOVWDQGDUGVDVRQDYHUDJHJHWOHVV WKDQOLWUHVDGD\SHUKHDGDVVHHQLQWDEOH  7DEOH5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ0DNKDGR1HZ7RZQKRXVHKROGZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQDQGJOREDOVWDQGDUGV6RXUFH$XWKRU  

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

192

Luvimba Ramulongo et al. / Procedia Environmental Sciences 37 (2017) 182 – 194

2QDYHUDJHWKHKRXVHKROGZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQSHUSHUVRQDGD\LQ1HZ7RZQLVOLWUHVDGD\ZKLFKLVPRUH WKDQ HQRXJK DV D EDVLF QHHG EXW LQ Q &DQDGD D SHUVRQ XVHV OLWUHV D GD\ $PHULFDQV XVH  OLWUHV D GD\ SHU SHUVRQ ,VUDHO FRQVXPHV  OLWUHV SHU SHUVRQ D GD\ DQG 3DOHVWLQH FRQVXPHV RQO\  OLWUHV D GD\ SHU SHUVRQ 7KH VWXG\IRXQGWKDWWKHUHLVDKXJHJDSEHWZHHQWKHPXQLFLSDOZDWHUUHDGLQJVDQGUHVLGHQW¶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¶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

 6WDQGDUGV OLWUHVGD\SHUVRQ   

0XQLFLSDOLW\ 0HJD OLWUHV    

0DNKDGR7RZQ 0HJD OLWUHV    

+RXVHKROG OLWUHV  6HHDSSHQGL[$ 6HHDSSHQGL[$ 6HHDSSHQGL[$

 &RQFOXVLRQ %DVHG RQ WKH ILQGLQJV WKH PXQLFLSDOLW\ GRHV PHHW WKH PLQLPXP VWDQGDUG RI WKH 6RXWK $IULFDQ FRQVWLWXWLRQ RI VXSSO\LQJOLWUHVDGD\SHUSHUVRQDVRQO\RIKRXVHKROGVDUHUHFHLYLQJOHVVWKDQOLWUHVDGD\SHUSHUVRQ &RPSDUHG WR RWKHU VWDQGDUGV WKH PXQLFLSDOLW\ GRHV PHHW WKH PLQLPXP UHTXLUHPHQWV DV WKH DYHUDJH RI KRXVHKROG ZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQSHUSHUVRQDGD\LVOLWUHVDGD\7KHUHIRUHRQDPLQLPXPUHTXLUHPHQWWKHPXQLFLSDOLW\ FRQVXPSWLRQGRHVH[FHHGGHPDQG1HZ7RZQLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKKLJKLQFRPHVXFKDQDUHDLVOLNHO\WRGHPDQGPRUH ZDWHUWKHUHIRUHORRNLQJDWWKHPD[LPXPVWDQGDUGRIOLWUHVDGD\RQO\RIWKHKRXVHKROGVXVHV OLWUHVDGD\ 

193

Luvimba Ramulongo et al. / Procedia Environmental Sciences 37 (2017) 182 – 194

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ϰ ϰ ϯ ϰ ϲ ϲ ϯ Ϯ ϲ ϲ ϱ ϭ ϱ ϲ ϰ ϲ ϲ ϯ ϱ Ϯ ϲ ϯ ϰ ϳ ϱ ϲ ϰ ϰ ϲ Ϯ ϴ ϳ ϭ ϭ Ϯ ϯ Ϯ ϰ ϱ ϰ

ϰϬϬ ϰϬϬ ϯϬϬ ϰϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϯϬϬ ϮϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϱϬϬ ϭϬϬ ϱϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϰϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϯϬϬ ϱϬϬ ϮϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϯϬϬ ϰϬϬ ϳϬϬ ϱϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϰϬϬ ϰϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϮϬϬ ϴϬϬ ϳϬϬ ϭϬϬ ϭϬϬ ϮϬϬ ϯϬϬ ϮϬϬ ϰϬϬ ϱϬϬ ϰϬϬ

ϲϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϰϱϬ ϲϬϬ ϵϬϬ ϵϬϬ ϰϱϬ ϯϬϬ ϵϬϬ ϵϬϬ ϳϱϬ ϭϱϬ ϳϱϬ ϵϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϵϬϬ ϵϬϬ ϰϱϬ ϳϱϬ ϯϬϬ ϵϬϬ ϰϱϬ ϲϬϬ ϭϬϱϬ ϳϱϬ ϵϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϵϬϬ ϯϬϬ ϭϮϬϬ ϭϬϱϬ ϭϱϬ ϭϱϬ ϯϬϬ ϰϱϬ ϯϬϬ ϲϬϬ ϳϱϬ ϲϬϬ

ϭϳϬϬ ϭϳϬϬ ϭϮϳϱ ϭϳϬϬ ϮϱϱϬ ϮϱϱϬ ϭϮϳϱ ϴϱϬ ϮϱϱϬ ϮϱϱϬ ϮϭϮϱ ϰϮϱ ϮϭϮϱ ϮϱϱϬ ϭϳϬϬ ϮϱϱϬ ϮϱϱϬ ϭϮϳϱ ϮϭϮϱ ϴϱϬ ϮϱϱϬ ϭϮϳϱ ϭϳϬϬ Ϯϵϳϱ ϮϭϮϱ ϮϱϱϬ ϭϳϬϬ ϭϳϬϬ ϮϱϱϬ ϴϱϬ ϯϰϬϬ Ϯϵϳϱ ϰϮϱ ϰϮϱ ϴϱϬ ϭϮϳϱ ϴϱϬ ϭϳϬϬ ϮϭϮϱ ϭϳϬϬ



194

Luvimba Ramulongo et al. / Procedia Environmental Sciences 37 (2017) 182 – 194

 5()(5(1&(  $UEXpV)*DUFÕD9DOLxDV0ÈDQG0DUWÕQH](VSLx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³:$7(5)25/,)(´ KWWSZZZXQRUJZDWHUIRUOLIHGHFDGHKXPDQBULJKWBWRBZDWHUVKWPO  $FFHVVHG 0DUFK  7KH 5LJKWWR:DWHU)DFW6KHHW1R8QLWHG1DWLRQV2+&+581+$%,7$7:+2  /\PDQ5$3HDNDQGRIIǦSHDNUHVLGHQWLDOZDWHUGHPDQG:DWHU5HVRXUFHV5HVHDUFK  SS  0LOORFN.1DXJHV&+RXVHKROGDGRSWLRQRIZDWHUHIILFLHQWHTXLSPHQWWKHUROHRIVRFLRHFRQRPLFIDFWRUVHQYLURQPHQWDODWWLWXGHV DQGSROLF\(QYLURQPHQWDO5HVRXUFH(FRQRPLFVH  0RKDQGDV 0   ,QGLD¶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±&OLPDWHFKDQJHDQG ZDWHUVFDUFLW\VFHQDULRVPhysics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C33  SS  :KLWH+$UHDOLW\FKHFNIRUGDWDVQRRSLQJEconometrica68  SS  =KDQJ : $ IRUHFDVW DQDO\VLV RQ ZRUOG SRSXODWLRQ DQG XUEDQL]DWLRQ SURFHVV(QYLURQPHQW 'HYHORSPHQW DQG 6XVWDLQDELOLW\   SS  =KRX 6/ 0F0DKRQ 7$ :DOWRQ $ /HZLV -  )RUHFDVWLQJ RSHUDWLRQDO GHPDQG IRU DQ XUEDQ ZDWHU VXSSO\ ]RQH-RXUQDO RI +\GURORJ\H