Transitions to Sustainability

NZ Society for Sustainability Engineering and Science (NZSSES)

4th International Conference on

Sustainability Engineering and Science

Transitions to Sustainability Faculty of Engineering, The University of Auckland

30 Nov - 3 December 2010 NZSSES

New Zealand Society for Sustainability Engineering and Science

4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010

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New Zealand Society for Sustainability Engineering and Science CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering

Transitions to Sustainability 20 November - 3 December 2010 University of Auckland New Zealand

Copyright © New Zealand Society for Sustainability Engineering and Science (NZSSES) ISBN 978-0-473-18919-8 Edited by NZSSES All rights reserved www,nzsses.org.nz 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010

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Author name Title

1

2

3

4

Hanani1,3

Abd Wahab

Brown

Byrd

First name

Craig

Dr

Clarke Dr

Co-authors Dr Mike Duke1; Dr

Organisation University of Waikato, Deakin

TimAnderson2; Dr James Carson;

University, Australia2; Universiti

Professor Stephen Legg

Country

NZ Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia3 Centre for Ergonomics, Occupational Safety and Health (CErgOSH) , Massey University NZ

TITLE

Theme

Solar Roofing System Thermal Performance Analysis

Beyond today’s Hanani Abd infrastructure Wahab

Wed 3.30 pm

2

403:401

Achieving Transition: Lessons from Human Factors/Ergonomics

Evolutions in Technology Craig Brown

Wed 3.30 pm

2

401:401

Mixed Session 1 BTI/Limits Michael Rehm Wed 1.30pm

1

403:401

Embedding sustainability Caleb Clarke

Wed 1.30pm

1

403:403

Thurs 11am

3

401:401

Thurs 11am

3

403:402

Wed 3.30 pm

2

403:404

Fri 9am

4

403:401

Hugh

Dr Michael Rehm

NZ

Changing Architecture for a Changing Climate; Unsustainable Trends in New Zealand

Caleb

Lucy Preston; David Phillips; Morphum Environmental, L.Fourie Unitec / Epsom Normal

NZ

You Can Teach A Young Dog New Tricks: Starting At The Beginning - Sustainable Education

The Design for Sustainability: moving from incremental towards Evolutions in Netherlands radical design approaches Technology Marcel Crul

University of Auckland

5

Crul

Marcel

Ir., Jan Carel Diehl,

6

Dale

Michael

Dr Susan Krumdieck; Prof Pat Bodger;

7

David

Laurentiu (Larry)

Dr Frantz Daniel Fistung

8

Dravitzki

Vince

Tiffany Lester; Peter Cenek, Opus Central Laboratories

Delft University of Technology

University of Canterbury NZ Economics Center of Industry and Services–Romanian Academy, Bucharest: Ontario Institute for Studies in Education–University of Toronto Canada

Global Energy Modelling - a biophysical approach

On the road to sustainability - the case of the Romanian transportation sector

NZ

Pathways to a more sustainable transport infrastructure

Limits to Growth

9

Ducker

Dan

Dr Kepa Morgan


NZ

10

Easton

Lois

Roman Jacques

Beacon Pathway Limited

NZ

The Eco Design Advisor Programme: Supporting the Transformation of New Zealand’s Housing Stocks

Foudazi

12

Gamage

13

14

Mrs

Gaziulusoy

Giurco

Dr


NZ

Thurs 11am

3

401:401

Damien

Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney Australia

Peak Minerals: mapping sustainability issues at local, national Limits to and global scales Growth

Damien Guirco

Wed 1.30pm

1

403:402

Dr Susan Krumdieck; Dr Larry Brackney

University of Canterbury

NZ

Pattern Recognition Residential Demand Response: An Limits to Option for Critical Peak Demand Reduction in New Zealand Growth

Susan Krumdieck

Thurs 11am

3

403:402

Waitakere City Council

NZ

Fri 9am

4

403:403

Fri 9am

4

403:401

Robert

Koh

25

Krpo

26

Krumdieck

Assoc. Prof

Krumdieck

Assoc. Prof

27

Zane Simpson

Bruce

University of Stellenbosch

Transitions to Sustainable Investment

New Economics

Robert Howell Thurs 11am

3

403:403


Auckland governance reforms: political legitimacy, democratic accountability and sustainable development.

Resilient Societies

Bruce Hucker Thurs 11am

3

403:404

James Hughes and Robert Perry Wed 3.30 pm

2

403:402

Steve Goldthorpe, Robert Perry

Shaharudin

Abdul Samad Hadi, Ahmad Fariz Mohamed, Siti Nashroh Institute for Environment and Shaari and Mazlin B Mokhtar Development (LESTARI)

Shaharudin

Abdul Samad Hadi; Abdul Hadi Harman Shah; Ahmad Fariz Mohamed

AECOM

Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI)

Consultant Higher Education

Sungsoo

Assoc. Prof. Carol Boyle

Ana

Yasenko Krpo, CPG NZ, Tony Miguel, Waitakere City Council, Helen Chin, Waitakere City Council Auckland Council

Susan

Susan

ICSER, UoA

NZ

NZ

Carbon Futures: Reducing Emissions for the Auckland Region

Resilient Societies

Malaysia

A Malaysian Initiative in Embedding Sustainability: Sustainable School - An Environment Award

Embedding Shaharudin sustainability Idrus

Wed 1.30pm

1

403:403

Malaysia

Non-linearity of Urban Expansion: Transition to Sustainability

Resilient Societies

Fri 9am

4

401:401

Australia

Embedding Sustainability: painless is just delay

Embedding sustainability Pat Kelly

Wed 3.30 pm

2

403:403

NZ

Limits to growth defined by water resource, Waiheke Island case study

Limits to Growth

Sung-Soo Koh Wed 1.30pm

1

403:402

NZ

Urban Stormwater Runoff quality – lifecycle assessment

Limits to Growth

Ana Krpo and Yasenko Krpo Wed 1.30pm

1

403:402

Susan Krumdieck

Wed 3.30 pm

2

403:403

Susan Krumdieck

Fri 9am

4

403:401

Lawton

29

Longley

Ella Susanne1 Lawton3

Ella Lawton

Wed 1.30pm

1

403:404

NZ

Manukau City Council

NZ

The New Zealand Footprint Project: the Ecological Footprint Resilient of Kiwi Lifestyles and Urban Form Societies

NIWA

NZ

What is Sustainable Air Quality?

Mixed Session 1 BTI/Limits Ian Longley

Wed 1.30pm

1

403:401

Towards Sustainable Housing for Vietnam

Resilient Societies

Phuong Ly

Wed 3.30 pm

2

403:402

Evolutions in Technology Tim Martin

Wed 3.30 pm

2

401:401

NZ

Investigation of the National Pollutant Inventory (NPI) as a Sustainability Tool Transitioning to a 100% renewable electricity generation system: balancing the roles of wind generation, base-load generation and hydro storage

Limits to Growth

Thurs 11am

3

403:402

2

403:403

2

403:401

Wed 3.30 pm

2

403:401

Wed 1.30pm

1

403:403


3

30

Ly

Phuong

Gustavo Olivares, Dr Guy Coulson Professor Janis Birkeland, Associate Professor Nur Demirbilek

31

Martin

Tim

Dr Gavin Mudd

Ian

Dr Shannon Page; Professor Arthur Williamson University of Canterbury

32

33

34

35 36

Mason

McLernon

McQuinn

McSaveney Memon

Dr

Dr

Dr

Ian

NZ

Queensland University of Technology

Australia

Monash University

Australia

Tim

University of Ulster

UK

Integrating Sustainable Development Into The Higher Education Built Environment Curriculum.

Taryn

Beca Infrastructure Limited & New Zealand Steel Limited

NZ

Sustainable Steelmaking: Infrastructure for the Future

Claire Jewell

Len Professor Ali

Golden Bay Cement Nick Kirk

Shaharudin Idrus

The Survival Spectrum: the key to Transition Engineering of Embedding Complex Systems sustainability Beyond today’s infrastructure TACA Sim: a survey for adaptability assessment

University of Canterbury Montira Watcharasukarn, Shannon Page

Community Advocacy for Sustainable Living

Council for Socially Responsible Investment CSRI NZ

James

Patricia

Resilient Societies

Embedding Maggie sustainability Lawton Beyond Research priorities for Sustainable Branch Line Revitalisation today’s infrastructure Jan Havenga South Africa in South Africa

1 Victoria University of Professor Robert Vale2; Prof. Wellington, 2Otago Polytechnic Centre for Sustainable Practice, Brenda Vale2; Dr Maggie

28

403:404

Dr Timothy Prior; Ms Leah Mason; Dr Gavin Mudd;

Dr

24

1

Idil

Howell

Dr

Gaya Gamage Wed 1.30pm

System Innovation for Sustainability at Product Development Level: Development of a Scenario Method and a Workshop Embedding Idil Tool sustainability Gaziulusoy

18

Kelly

401:401

Assoc. Prof. Carol Boyle; Dr Ir Ron McDowall

Jan

23

1

The Development of an Integrated Model for Assessing Sustainability of Complex Systems

Dr

Idrus

Wed 1.30pm

NZ

Havenga

22

Evolutions in Fahimeh Technology Foudazi

ICSER, UoA

17

Idrus

403:403

Assoc. Prof. Carol Boyle; Dr Ir Ron McDowall

Frances

21

403:403

4

Gayathri Babarenda

Samuel

Hughes

3

Fri 9am

Cape Peninsula University of Technology

Harrison

20

Thurs 11am

Embedding sustainability Lois Easton

Dr Mugendi M'Rithaa

Gyamfi

Dr

Session Room

Fahimeh

16

Hucker

Dan Ducker

Day

Sustainable solutions for Cooling Systems in Residential buildings: Case study in the Western Cape Province, South South Africa Africa

15

19

Susan Krumdieck

Resilient Societies Larry David Beyond today’s Vince infrastructure Dravitzki

Bridging formal research and informal approaches to enhance New civic engagement processes Economics

11

Presenter

Lincoln University

Ian Mason

NZ

Towards More Sustainable Concrete

Embedding sustainability Beyond today’s infrastructure Beyond today’s infrastructure

Tim McLernon Wed 1.30pm Taryn McQuinn and Claire Jewell Wed 3.30 pm

NZ

Sustainable Governance of Marine Fisheries: A SocioEcological Embeddedness Perspective

Embedding sustainability Nick Kirk

Len McSaveney


Page 3


37

Assoc. Mohamed, F Prof

38

Mohamed, M Mr

39

Mokhtar Azizi

40

41

42

43 44

45

46

Moore

Morrissey

Ms

Mr

Dr

Mosly

Mudd

Ahmad Fariz

Prof. Abdul Samad Hadi; Shaharudin Idrus; Assoc. Prof. Abdul Hadi Harman Shah

Muaviyath

Dr Susan Krumdieck; Dr Larry Brackney

Sakina

Dr Elizabeth Fassman; Assoc.Prof. Suzanne Wilkinson

Dr John Morrissey

John

Colin

Olorunkiya

Joshua Olutayo

Olorunkiya

Joshua Olutayo

Paetz

48

Pearce

Asst. Prof Annie

49

Pearce

Asst. Prof Annie

51

Powell

53

Quinlivan

54

Reay

55

Reay

56

Rendall

Assoc. Prof Penny Allan Dr Elizabeth Fassman, Assoc.Prof. Suzanne Wilkinson Dr Elizabeth Fassman, Assoc.Prof. Suzanne Wilkinson

Dr

Dr Dr

RMIT University

NZ

Risks Associated with Implementation of Green Buildings

Beyond today’s Sakina infrastructure Mokhtar Azizi Thurs 11am

Australia

Cost benefit pathways to zero emission housing: Implications Resilient for household cash-flows in Melbourne Societies

Australia

Proposal of a tiered conceptual framework for sustainable design and planning of large-scale development projects in the metropolitan context

4

403:402

Wed 1.30pm

1

401:401

3

403:401

John Morrissey

Wed 3.30 pm

2

403:402

Mixed Session John 1 BTI/Limits Morrissey

Wed 1.30pm

1

403:401

Australia

Study on Risk Management for the Implementation of Energy Efficient & Renewable Technologies in Green Office Evolutions in Buildings Technology Ibrahim Mosly Wed 1.30pm

1

401:401

Australia

The “Limits to Growth” and ‘Finite’ Mineral Resources: Revisiting the Assumptions and Drinking From That HalfLimits to Capacity Glass Growth

Fri 9am

4

403:402

Colin O'Byrne Fri 9am

4

401:401

Gavin Mudd

NZ

Thurs 11am

3

403:401

NZ

Risk as a Fundamental Barrier to Adoption of Low Impact Design Technologies

Limits to Growth

Joshua Olorunkiya

Fri 9am

4

403:402

Matthew Paetz Fri 9am


College, Easton, PA2

NZ

USA

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University USA

Paul Chambers

Fri 9am


Auckland Council

Sustainable Suburbia – Oxymoron or Realistic Goal?

Resilient Societies

4

401:401

Strategic Entry Points for Sustainability in University Construction and Engineering Curricula

Embedding sustainability Annie Pearce Wed 3.30 pm

2

403:403

Sustainability and Capital Projects: Modeling the Emergent Property of Total Cost of Ownership

Resilient Societies

Annie Pearce Thurs 11am

3

403:404

4

403:404

Resilient Societies

Annie Pearce Fri 9am Robert Perry and Paul Chambers Wed 1.30pm

1

403:404

Felicity Powell

Resilient Societies

NZ

Costing Sustainable Capital Projects: The Human Factor Carbon Now and Carbon Futures – a systems and performance based approach to reducing GHG Emissions in the Auckland Region

Resilient Societies

Fri 9am

4

401:401

Felicity

Dr Abigail Harding

Opus Central Laboratories

NZ

The renaissance of inner city living and its implications for infrastructure and services: A Wellington case study

Paul

Shelley Quinlivan

Sinclair Knight Merz (SKM); Epsom Normal Primary School

NZ

Embedding Sustainability into School Curriculums

Embedding sustainability Paul Quinlivan Fri 9am

4

403:403

Stephen

Andrew Withell, Prof. Olaf Diegel

AUT

NZ

How to effectively engage students’ with environmentally sustainable product design?

Embedding sustainability Steve Reay

Wed 1.30pm

1

403:403

NZ

Design for Biodiversity: a new approach for ecologically sustainable product design?

Resilient Societies

Steve Reay

Thurs 11am

3

401:401

NZ

Quantifying Transport Energy Resilience: Active Mode Accessibility

Resilient Societies

Stacy Rendall Wed 3.30 pm

2

403:404

Stacy

Andrew Withell, Prof Olaf Diegel AUT Assoc. Prof Susan Krumdieck; Dr. Elijah Van Houten; Dr. Femke Reitsma; Dr. Shannon Page University of Canterbury

Opus International Consultants / UniSA / U.of Lethbridge NZ

Stephen

Robak

Anna Jesús

Prof. René Jorna; Dr Neils Faber; Prof. Rob van Haren

University of Groningen

59

Rule

Bridget


ICSER, University of Auckland

John

La Trobe University

Trade-offs between public health and environmental Beyond protection in a potable water supply context: Drinking Water today’s Standards New Zealand vs resource consent conditions infrastructure Anna Robak

The Netherlands Sustainability: Seeing Through The Eyes Of Farmers. Challenges for sustainable infrastructure development in small island developing states NZ

Australia

Transitions to Sustainability - Are we confident about the IPCC climate change predictions for the future?

3

403:401

Jesús RosalesCarreon Fri 9am

4

403:404

Bridget Rule

Fri 9am

4

403:404

Mixed Session 1 BTI/Limits John Russell

Wed 1.30pm

1

403:401

Resilient Societies

Osamu Saito

Fri 9am

4

403:404

Resilient Societies

Ermelinda Tobias

Thurs 11am

3

403:404

Lois Easton

Wed 3.30 pm

2

403:402

Resilient Societies Resilient Societies

Thurs 11am

62

Salon

Judelyn

Dr. Ermelinda G. Tobias

Measuring lifecycle carbon footprint of a golf course and greening in the golf industry A Correlational Analysis of Collective Social Capital and Sustainable Development Program Outcome in Iligan City, Mindanao State University-Iligan Institute Of Technology Philippines Philippines

63

Saville-Smith

Kay

Lois Easton

Beacon Pathway Limited

NZ

Market Transformation to Achieve Large Scale Uptake of Sustainable Residential Renovation in New Zealand

Resilient Societies

64

Scott

Eion

Jennifer Kerr; Rhys Taylor

Auckland Council

NZ

Resilience in sustainability: A New Resource

Embedding Eion Scott and sustainability Jennifer Kerr Fri 9am

4

403:403

Louise Webster; David Woods

Sinclair Knight Merz (SKM); Ideas Accelerator Ltd; North Shore City Council

Rethinking sustainable infrastructure using innovation tools

Beyond today’s infrastructure Sarah Sinclair Thurs 11am

3

403:401

Sustainable Use of Crushed Concrete Waste as A Road Base Material

Beyond today’s Komsun infrastructure Siripun

Wed 3.30 pm

2

403:401

NZ

Unintended Consequences of Reduced Consumption

New Economics

Jonathan Slason

Thurs 11am

3

403:403

Australia

Shallow Groundwater Resources and Future Climate Change Impacts:A Comparison of the Ovens and Namoi Catchments, Limits to Eastern Australia Growth

Tara Smith

Wed 1.30pm

1

403:402

Adapting to adopt sustainability: organisational change in UK water and sewerage companies

Aaron Tanner Wed 3.30 pm

2

403:404

65

Assoc. Prof

Evolutions in Susan Technology Krumdieck

Beyond today’s Joshua infrastructure Olorunkiya

RosalesCarreon

Saito

NZ

Sustainable Renewable Electricity for Small Islands : A Methodology for Essential Load Matching

Urban Form as a Reflection of Governance Practices

AECOM

Garvin

Fariz Mohamed

Global Thinking- Local Action: Adopting the Low Impact Design (LID) Technologies in Urban Stormwater Management

58

Russell

Limits to Growth

Victoria University of Wellington NZ

57

61

From the Linear to Cyclic Approach for Sustainable Waste Management in Malaysian City

Resilient Societies

Assoc. Prof. Henning Bjornlund

60

Malaysia

Assistant Professor Yong Han Virginia Polytechnic Institute and Ahn State University USA Associate Professor Kristen Virginia Polytechnic Institute and Sanford-Bernhardt2; Associate Professor, Michael State University & Lafayette

Asst. Prof Annie

Robert

RMIT University

Monash University

Matthew

Perry

52

Dr Guomin (Kevin) Zhang

Gavin

O'Byrne

Pearce


Dr Usha Iver-Raniga; Patricia McLaughlin; Assoc.Prof. Anthony Mills RMIT University, Melbourne

47

50


Trivess

Ibrahim

Dr

Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI),

Sinclair

Osamu

Sarah

Waseda University

Japan

NZ

Narantuya Batmunkh1; Peerapong Jitsangiam3; 66 67

Siripun

Komsun

Slason

Hamid Nikraz4

Curtin University of Technology Australia

Jonathan

BECA

68

Smith, Tara

Tara

Dr Gavin Mudd

69

Tanner

Aaron

Dr David Widdowson2

SKM Australia

Lenny

Kristina Lauche Ph.D MSc; Sacha Silvester Ph.D MSc; Rikoll Dehli Silje MSc;

Dr Brian S. McIntosh1;

70 71

72

van Onselen Varua

Vickers

73

Weng

74

Williamson

75

Wolfgramm

76

Young

77

Dr

Zahedi

Maria Estela

Jeff

Prof

Dr

Assoc Prof

Anna Evangelista

1 Cranfield University, 2Yorkshire Water UK

Delft University of Technology University of Western Sydney


ICSER, University of Auckland

Dr Gavin M. Mudd1, Assoc.

1

Technology Windows in Sustainable Innovation Projects: Experiences with an Innovation Tool for Identifying The Netherlands Sustainable Application Domains

Resilient Societies

Evolutions in Lenny van Technology Onselen

Wed 3.30 pm

2

401:401

Australia

(Un)sustainable Consumption in Australian Households: An Exploratory Study

Limits to Growth

Thurs 11am

3

403:402

NZ

Design for Sustainable Development: A Framework for Sustainable Product Development and its Application to Earthmoving Equipment

Evolutions in Technology Jeff Vickers

Wed 3.30 pm

2

401:401

4

403:402

4

403:401

Anna Evangelista

Monash University, 2ICSER University of Auckland

Australia


NZ

Projecting the Full Pollutant Cycle from Coal Utilisation to Limits to 2050: Understanding the Global Environmental Implications Growth Zhehan Weng Fri 9am Beyond today’s Transitions in transit: future options for transport energy in Arthur infrastructure Williamson New Zealand Fri 9am

Rachel

The University of Auckland Business School

NZ

Creating leadership in transition to sustainability societies: Reflections from the Universitas 21 Sustainability Project

Embedding Rachle sustainability Wolfgramm

3

403:403

Damian

Morphum Environmental

NZ

Can catchment management can be delivered for the Auckland Super City watersheds and achieve sustainability

Resilient Societies

Damian Young Wed 3.30 pm

2

403:404

Ahmad

James Cook University, Townsville

Australia

Sustainable electric energy supply by decentralized alternative energy technologies

Evolutions in Technology Ahmad Zahedi Wed 1.30pm

1

401:401

Zhehan

Prof. Carol Boyle

Arthur

Dr Ian Mason

2

Thurs 11am


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Abd Wahab Ms Hanani1, 3, Duke Dr Mike1, Anderson Dr Tim2, Carson Dr James1 1 School of Science and Engineering, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton 3240 New Zealand 2 School of Engineering, Deakin University, Geelong 3217, Australia 3 Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, Beg Berkunci 101 Parit Raja Batu Pahat , 86400, Johor, Malaysia Email: [email protected]

SOLAR ROOFING SYSTEM THERMAL PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS Beyond Today’s Infrastructure Research and development work on Building Integrated Solar Energy Systems (BISES) has become an area of growing interest, not only in New Zealand (NZ) but worldwide. This interest has led to a significant growth in the use of solar energy to provide heating and electricity generation. This paper presents the theoretical and experimental results of a novel building integrated solar hot water system developed using commercial long run roofing materials. This work shows that it is possible to achieve effective integration that maintains the aesthetics of the building and also provides useful thermal energy. The results of a 6.73m2 glazed domestic hot water systems are presented. The experimental results show that the glazed system performs close to the theoretical model and is an effective provider of hot water in certain climates. Further work is needed to identify and design a control strategy for the Building Integrated Thermal (BIT) system and determine how the performance can be optimized. Keywords: BIT, thermal performance, roofing system 1. INTRODUCTION There has been significant growth of research and development in renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind, tidal, and geothermal linked to concerns about climate change caused mainly by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. Solar energy has emerged as one of the most rapidly growing of these renewable energy sources. Solar energy is an abundant, free, non-polluting, and renewable resource. The solar energy reaching the earth’s surface is close to 7000 times current global energy consumption (Nielsen, 2005). Therefore, it is possible that solar energy systems could, in the future, become a significant supplier of the world’s energy. The most common use of solar thermal technology is for domestic water heating. NZ residences use about one-third of total energy consumption, with the majority of residential demand being for water heating, space heating and lighting as shown in Figure 1.

1


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Figure 1: Percentage of resident energy consumption by end use (ElectricityCommission 2010) There is a competitive market in NZ for solar hot water heating systems. Around 35,000 home owners in NZ have now installed solar water heating systems, and currently there are around 3,500 new solar water heating systems installed each year (EECA 2008). Traditionally, research in the field of solar water heating has been conducted in relative isolation from the building industry. Although this has led to the development of high performance systems, there appears to have been little consideration into the integration of these systems with the buildings they are typically used in. In a study by Probst and Roecker (2007) it was shown that there are a number of factors that need to be addressed in order to achieve better integration of solar devices and the built environment. In particular they note that future building integrated solar collectors “should be conceived as part of a construction system”. This view was also expressed by “PV Catapult” project (2005) when reflecting on the integration of photovoltaic systems into buildings. The use of water heating solar collectors as building elements has, until recently, been largely ignored. Ji et al. (2006) and Chow et al. (2007) both examined a photovoltaic/thermal system for integration into building walls in Hong Kong. They showed that these systems could make useful heat gains while also acting to reduce thermal load on the building. However these systems were essentially integrated onto a building rather than into the building (i.e. individual collectors were used as the material for the wall, rather than using the wall as the material for a collector). Similarly, Kang et al. (2006) discussed the performance of a roof integrated solar collector which again consisted of a series of “standalone” collectors used as a roof. According to Probst and Roecker (2007) this method of integrating solar collectors is considered to be “acceptable” to architects, but is still only demonstrating the integration of collectors onto a building rather than into the building. Medved et al. (2003) however examined an unglazed solar thermal system that could be truly integrated into a building. In their system they utilised a standard metal roofing system as a solar collector for water heating. They found that in a swimming pool heating system, that they were able to achieve payback periods of less than 2 years. This translated to a reduction of 75% in the time taken to pay for a glazed solar collector system. Similar systems to that of Medved et al. 2


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have been developed and discussed by Bartelsen et al. (1999), Colon and Merrigan (2001) and Anderson (2009). However, despite the recent research and the recognition of the market for building integration of solar collectors, the work undertaken in the field is relatively small in comparison to work on stand-alone collectors. Although standalone collectors can successfully be integrated onto buildings it has been suggested that this does not necessarily result in an attractive finish. As a result, this study aims to examine the performance of a building integrated solar thermal collector based on sheet metal roofing that displays a greater level of integration, and satisfies more of the requirements identified in the literature than many of the previous systems. 2. BUILDING INTEGRATED THERMAL (BIT) SYSTEM In NZ and Australia long run metal roofing is widely used for domestic, commercial and industrial applications. A typical example of such a roof is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Long Run Metal Roof Long run roofing comprises a substrate of steel strip, commonly 0.40 mm or 0.55 mm thick and coated with 45% zinc, 55% aluminium alloy. A corrosion inhibitive primer and top coat (paint) are applied to the outer surface and is available in a wide variety of colours. The finished sheet is then roll formed or folded into the desired profile. An investigation was undertaken to determine if commercially available painted steel was suitable for use directly as a building integrated solar thermal (BIT) panel. Two metre lengths of black painted steel were manufactured using a CNC folding machine. During the folding process a fluid channel, 35 mm wide was incorporated. Manifolds and end plugs were added. Finally a black painted steel collector plate was glued over the fluid trough as shown in Figure 3. The collector plate absorbs solar energy. As water or heat transfer fluid flows up the channel, heat is transferred from the underside of the collector plate to the fluid. Previous research (Anderson 2009) showed that steel is an effective material for a building integrated solar collector plate if the channel width is high, typically more than 20mm.

3


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Figure 3: Schematic of BIT Panel A previous theoretical study and small scale testing of Building Integrated Photovoltaic Thermal (BIPVT) panels (Anderson 2009) had been undertaken by the Solar Engineering Research Group at the University of Waikato. BIPVT is a combined system that generates both electricity and hot water. The panels are identical to the BIT panels but have photovoltaic cells laminated onto the collector plate. The thermal performance of optimised BIPVT compared to commercially available flat plate solar thermal collectors is shown in Figure 4.

Thermal Efficiency

1 0.8 0.6 0.4

High performance glazed flat plate (SPF, 2007) Experimental glazed flat plate

0.2

Glazed BIPVT Unglazed BIPVT

0 0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

2

(Ti-Ta)/G" (m K/W) Figure 4: Theoretical and Experimental Performances of Optimised BIPVT Collectors It can be seen that the efficiency of the optimised glazed BIPVT is lower but still good enough to provide useful thermal energy in sunny regions such as Australia and relatively sunny regions such as NZ. However, in this paper no photovoltaic cells were included so that the experimental rig operated as BIT only. One of the aims of the experiments was to determine how purely BIT performance compared to BIPVT. A basic schematic diagram of the BIT system is shown in Figure 5. To investigate the performance of glazed BIT, a solar water heating system was built using a similar construction method to a conventional long run metal roof (see Figure 6).

4


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Figure 5: Schematic diagram of the BIT system

Figure 6: Glazed BIT Test Rig The BIT was installed using standard building paper, rafters, battens and insulation. Folded polycarbonate sheets were used for the glazing on the black BIT panels. The test rig enabled the performance of glazed BIT to be evaluated almost as if it had been installed on an actual building. The rig comprised three parallel rows of eight coloured BIT panels in series, black, green and grey. Each row was plumbed so they could operate independently of the others, allowing for comparative testing of collectors of different colours (Anderson 2010). Initial tests showed a flow distribution problem with eight panels in series. The central panels had little or no flow so the panels were split into groups of four in series. This resolved the problem but highlighted a potential problem with the manifolds.

3.

TESTING AND RESULTS

Performance testing of the glazed black BIT panels was undertaken to determine their efficiency when in a ‘real’ installation and to investigate the maximum water temperatures possible.

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To achieve this, a small insulated tank was filled with ~35 litres of water at ambient temperature. On a clear sunny day, with average solar insolation of 929 W/m2, the pump was switched on and the water circulated through the glazed BIT. The inlet and outlet temperatures were measured along with the flow rate and solar insolation. The system operated all day and night. Night time running allowed the water to be cooled by radiation ready for the next day’s testing. 100 90 80

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Figure 7: Water Temperature from Collector The water temperature for a good summer’s day is shown in Figure 7. It can be seen that the maximum temperature reached was approximately 90°C. This is well above the required 50-60°C of domestic hot water and demonstrates that glazed BIT can reach the required temperature. The thermal efficiency (η ) can be determined directly from the experimental results based on the Hottel-Whillier equation (Duffie and Beckman, 2006). It is defined simply as the ratio of heat transfer in the collector Eq.1 to the product of the collector area and the global solar irradiance, as shown in Eq. 2. Q = m C p ∆T Q η = Acollector G"

(Eq.1) (Eq.2)

From the experimental data, the efficiency of a solar collector for all conditions can be represented by a linear equation of the form shown in Eq. 3.  T − Ta  η = η 0 A − a1  i   G" 

(Eq.3)

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It was possible to derive the efficiency equation for BIT collector analysis using a linear least square regression analysis (Anderson 2009). The result from the experimental data measured during testing is shown Eq.4. η = 0.4532 − 4.0864

Ti − Ta G"

(Eq.4)

Where: = solar irradiance (W/m2) G" = mass flow rate (kg/s) m Cp = specific heat of the collector cooling medium (J/kg/oC) ∆T = differences between fluid out temperature,(To) and inlet temperature (Ti) Acollector = collector area (m2) Ti = inlet temperature (oC) Ta = ambient temperature (oC) = collector optical efficiency η OA The significance of the efficiency equations can be better understood from an inspection of Figure 8.

0.8 Theory Experimental Linear (Theory)

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Figure 8: Theoretical and Experimental Performance of BIT

The glazed BIT was not optimised as was the glazed BIPVT. When trying to realise a practical BIT system compromises had to be made to achieve a ‘real world’ BIT system. Consequently the 7


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collector surface, optical properties of the glazing and the fin efficiency were not as good as the optimal glazed BIPVT resulting in a lower thermal efficiency. None the less the glazed BIT still performed well enough to be an effective solar hot water heater system in ‘sunny’ regions. 4. CONCLUSION

The BIT solar collectors performed well and reached the required temperature for domestic hot water systems. The thermal performance of a solar roofing system was evaluated numerically and experimentally. The experimental efficiency is in good agreement with the theoretical result. This work shows that it is possible to integrate an effective solar hot water system directly into standard roofing material, thus maintaining the aesthetics of the building. Further work is needed to identify and design a control strategy for the BIT system and determine how the performance can be optimized. Investigations are being undertaken to determine if the glazed BIT can be improved and have a performance similar to that of the optimised glazed BIPVT. 5. REFERENCES Anderson, T.N., (2009). Investigation of Thermal Aspects of Building Integrated Photovoltaic/Thermal Solar Collectors. PhD Thesis. Department of Engineering, University of Waikato. Anderson, T. N., Duke, M., Carson, J.K., (2009). Performance of coloured solar collectors. Proceedings of the First International Conference on Applied Energy (ICAE09), University of Hong Kong (CD), Hong Kong. Anderson, T.N., Duke, M., Carson, J. K., (2010), The Effect of Colour on the Thermal Performance of Building Integrated Solar Collectors, Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, Vol. 94, pp. 350-354. Bartelsen, B., Gunter, R., Norbett, V., Rainer, T., Klaus,L., Gottfried, P., (1999). Elastomermetal-absorber: development and application. Solar Energy 67(4-6): 215-226. Chow, T. T., He, W., Ji, J., (2007). An experimental study of façade-integrated photovoltaic/water-heating system. Applied Thermal Engineering 27(1): 37-45. Colon, C., Merrigan, T. (2001). Roof integrated solar absorber: the measured performance of “invisible” solar collectors. Proceedings of ASES National Solar Energy Conference, Washington, DC. Duffie, J.A., Beckman, W. A. (2006). Solar engineering of Thermal Processes. John Wiley and Sons Inc., New York 3rd edition. EECA (2008). Solar Water Heating Fact Sheet 3. Magazine, Electricity Commisson (2010). About the New Zealand Electricity Sector. Ji, J., Han, J., Chow, T.T., Han, C., Lu, J., He, W., (2006). Effect of flow channel dimensions on the performance of a box-frame photovoltaic/thermal collector. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part A, Journal of Power and Energy, Vol. 220, (No. A7): pp. 681-688.

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Kang, M. C., Kang, Y.H., Lim, S.H., Chun, W., (2006). Numerical analysis on the thermal performance of a roof-integrated flat-plate solar collector assembly. International Communications in Heat and Mass Transfer Vol. 33: pp. 976-984. Medved, S., Arkar, C., Cerne, B., (2003). A large-panel unglazed roof-integrated liquid solar collector--energy and economic evaluation. Solar Energy 75(6): 455-467. Duke, M., Anderson, T. N., Carson, J. K., Kunnemeyer, R., Smith, B., (2010). Performance of Building Integrated Solar Hot Water Systems, Energy in the City, The Solar Energy Society Conference C92, London South Bank University, 23 - 24 June 2010. Roecker, C., Munari, P. M. C., De Chambrier, E., Schueler, A., Scartezzini, J.L., et al. (2007). Facade Integration of Solar Thermal Collectors: A Breakthrough? Schalkwijk, M. V., (2005). Opportunities for PV in buildings Results from the PV Catapult project.

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Brown, Mr, Craig (Presenter) Legg, Professor, Stephen Centre for Ergonomics, Occupational Safety and Health (CErgOSH), School of Management, College of Business, Massey University, New Zealand. Address for correspondence: Craig Brown, PO Box 655, Oneroa, Waiheke Island, Auckland 1840. Tel.: 09 372 9190. Email: [email protected] Achieving transition to sustainability: lessons from human factors and ergonomics Theme: Embedding sustainability, Beyond Today’s Infrastructure, Evolutions in Technology, Resilient Societies Sustainability is multi-dimensional: social, economic and environmental. Optimisation of a single dimension may not result in optimisation of the other dimensions. Transition to sustainability must occur in the context of complex sociotechnical systems. Human factors and ergonomics (HF/E) is a discipline which operates in the context of sociotechnical systems and aims for joint optimisation of multiple dimensions. This paper describes HF/E and applies an HF/E perspective to transition and to jointly optimising the dimensions of sustainability in two case studies to illustrate the need to design at a sociotechnical system level: a NOW Home and a self-explaining roads project. NOW Homes are relatively conventional, more sustainable, homes built with today’s products and materials. This NOW Home was only partially successful, partly because full account was not taken of user behaviour. The application of HF/E, as with a previous, more successful NOW Home, would probably have improved the outcomes. Self-explaining roads provide road users with information in the form of perceptual cues rather than signage about the function of the road in order to encourage appropriate/safer behaviour. Application of HF/E to the redesign of a rural intersection reduced the rate of injury crashes through the installation of shade cloth that reduced visibility (and hence also drivers’ speeds) on the approach to the intersection. Introduction This paper outlines why human factors and ergonomics (HF/E) can be valuable in assisting the transition to sustainability. It begins with definitions and discussion of the terms sustainability, sustainable development, strong sustainability, transition, human factors and ergonomics, and sociotechnical systems. It shows that both HF/E and sustainability are concerned with the joint optimisation of elements of complex sociotechnical systems. It also shows how ‘blaming the operator’ and ‘blaming the consumer’ (as the last links in the system) is unhelpful from both HF/E and sustainability perspectives. Two case studies illustrate how HF/E can help in achieving transition to sustainability. Sustainability By sustainability this paper means systems which operate within the carrying capacity of the planet and which can therefore operate indefinitely. As natural physical systems and biological systems were in balance before human activity, in effect this means that human 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December Page 2010 14


systems are the key variable in the context of sustainability, although the effects are felt across all systems. The sustainable development (SD) concept of three dimensions (social, economic and environmental) which need to be simultaneously optimised is considered to be useful, but the skewed application of SD (e.g. favouring the economic dimension and/or failing to acknowledge that the present economic system is predicated on growth which is not able to continue on a resource constrained planet; SANZ, 2009) is problematic. When applied correctly it helps to convey and encapsulate the systems approach that sustainability entails. It also highlights that sustainability is anthropocentric i.e. human-centred. This applies to a range of approaches to sustainability, from ‘light green’ (sustainability is for the benefit of people and people come first in decision making) to ‘dark green’ (sustainability is for the benefit of the ecosystem and people are a threat to it). The Rio Declaration on Environment and Development’s first principle is that “human beings are at the centre of concerns for sustainable development. They are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature” (UNCED, 1992). It has been observed that nature does not produce waste from its systems (i.e. ‘waste = food’; McDonough & Braungart, 2002). It is human activity which produces waste and depletes resources. In other words, people are the cause of unsustainability.

Figure 1 - Sustainable development model

Figure 2 - Strong sustainability model

Biosphere Social Sociosphere

Environmental

Economic Econosphere

The strong sustainability model (SANZ, 2009, p8) is attractive in that it addresses the limitations of the ‘triple bottom line’ model, or at least its common incorrect application. However, it is limited in itself in that it does not appear to allow for the carrying capacity of the earth to be increased (Birkeland, 2008). If this is possible, or at least if economic activity is not strictly tied to consumption of resources, then economy can justifiably stand alongside social and environmental goals. Sustainable development means the integration of social, economic and environmental goals, not balancing them (i.e. trading them off against each other) (ibid). In fact, the two models (Figure 1: sustainable development and Figure 2: strong sustainability) are not incompatible. Although in the latter, the biosphere includes the sociosphere, which includes the econosphere, this is because the terms chosen have the subordinate components included in their definition, whereas the environmental, social and economic systems of the SD model are theoretically separable. In practise they are linked, at

4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December Page 2010 15


least currently, but the degree and type of linkages may be altered. Either model permits the consideration of alternative ways to integrate these components, hence they are complimentary models. It is possible to argue that ‘the economy’ does not belong in either model, as it is not a natural system and could be replaced by other human constructs such as ‘power’ or ‘prosperity’ (in the broader sense). Of course, these are also not natural systems and so by the same reasoning would also not belong in the model. Indeed, society is a human construct too, and dynamically changing, so under the same logic, that would also need to be replaced with an alternative (possibly more reductionist) term. For the purposes of conceptualising sustainability it is hard to see the value in a model stripped of society and economy, not least because that is the reality of the world at present. Rather, it is preferable to see all components of the model(s) as being changeable constructs. Thus, just as society can change in structure both incrementally and through radical reorganisation, so can economy. Clearly environment (or biosphere) can change, or else there would be no need for this discussion. If ‘society’ can be applied to hunter-gathering, pastoralism, horticulturalism, agriculturalism, feudalism, industrialism and post-industrialism, then ‘economy’ can be applied to the mana and methods of those societies, whether capitalist, communist, ‘green’, or something different. It is hard to conceptualise that whatever future forms of societal interaction; whatever measures of, and processes for, achieving ‘prosperity’ that there may be; that these could not be accommodated as a form of ‘economy’. Transition This paper views the term ‘transition’ in the sense of a journey from the present unsustainable socio-economic-ecological systems to future sustainable systems, with the presumption that there will be many steps in between rather than a sudden change. It regards the pathway to sustainability as being ill-defined, contestable, non-linear, of variable gradient, and continually changing. It has never been walked (in this direction at least) before and retracing our steps is neither desirable, nor possible. Much effort has been spent on both assessing the state of the world and arguing the definition of sustainability. There is value in attempting to outline the necessary achievable steps between the present and the desired future, but also value in recognising that complex systems are not fully controllable, or even predictable. Rather, methods for influencing and working with (sociotechnical) systems can be valuable, many of which are incorporated into HF/E. Human factors and ergonomics The International Ergonomics Association’s definition of human factors and ergonomics (HF/E) includes the following: Ergonomics (or human factors) is the scientific discipline concerned with the understanding of interactions among humans and other elements of a system, and the profession that applies theory, principles, data and methods to design in order to optimize human well-being and overall system performance…Organizational ergonomics is concerned with the optimization of sociotechnical systems, including their organizational structures, policies, and processes (IEA Council, 2000).



Although historically HF/E has been applied to industrial/product design and health and safety, there is nothing about its methods or theoretical underpinnings that prevents its application to other topics. HF/E includes sociotechnical systems theory - which advocates joint optimisation of social and technical elements of work (Cherns, 1976). To optimally apply technology one must design for people and their needs, desires, abilities and limitations. HF/E, like sustainability, is anthropocentric and parallels can be drawn with the light greendark green distinction. HF/E is often said to be user-centred, i.e. design is for the benefit of the ‘user’ (cf. light green sustainability), but sociotechnical systems theory requires optimisation of the overall system rather than user-centricity – with the ‘user’ as a critical component (cf. dark green sustainability). The different shades of green are moral or value judgements, but in practice, when inter-generational equity (a SD concept) or design for future users (the equivalent HF/E concept) is accounted for, design objectives harmonise between different shades. It is also likely that often the human element of systems is the least well catered for in design and tends to be the constraining factor on overall system performance. Hence the ‘user-centred’ approach is likely to be successful – so long as the design is done in full cognisance of the wider system in which ‘users’ are embedded. Moray (2000) produced an HF/E sociotechnical systems model (see Figure 3). Note that unlike many HF/E models which show the user at the centre, Moray instead refers to behaviour at different levels of the model to show the various points where people interact with the wider system.

Figure 3 – Human Factors and Ergonomics as the study and design of sociotechnical systems (Moray, 2000) 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December Page 2010 17


In summary, sustainability requires us to design equitable human systems which preserve or enhance biological and natural systems. A systems approach is essential and it is human systems which are the critical factor in leading to unsustainability, and potentially can be changed to enable transition towards sustainability. Sociotechnical systems are systems with a human element and there is particular knowledge accumulated about them (i.e. in addition to general systems theory) that is useful in design. HF/E is a discipline which deals with design in sociotechnical systems and its principles and methods embody a substantial knowledge base around them, thus HF/E is a potentially useful way to design more sustainable systems. Joint optimisation (integration) of social, environmental and economic concerns is critical to avoid suboptimal solutions that trade off these dimensions against each other and there is evidence that ‘win-win’ solutions are possible through HF/E design (Brown & Legg, 2010). This paper will now concentrate on one particular lesson from HF/E: don’t blame the operator (of the system), which when applied to sustainability becomes: don’t blame the consumer. A more detailed discussion of the synergies between SD and HF/E, and some illustrative case studies, can be found in Brown & Legg (2010). Don’t blame the operator In HF/E, it has long been recognised that it is unhelpful to blame the operator in the event of system failure. There are many people who have made choices in the specification, selection or design of system elements who may share responsibility, yet when ‘accidents’ occur, the blame is often placed on the last link in the chain, the operator of the equipment. They are visibly associated with the failure, but their active failure is only likely or even possible because of the overall system design and the latent failures that are designed into it: Rather than being the main instigators of an accident, operators tend to be the inheritors of system defects created by poor design, incorrect installation, faulty maintenance and bad management decisions. Their part is usually that of adding the final garnish to a lethal brew whose ingredients have already been long in the cooking (Reason, 1990).

The range of choices available to the operator, the opportunities the operator has had to acquire the necessary skills, and the awareness and control the operator has over the system state are all determined by the system’s design. Frequently of course, that design has been done with little or no consideration of the operator’s needs, desires, capabilities or limitations and thus there can be a mismatch. The HF/E approach is to design systems to support operators by applying HF/E knowledge, principles and methods to designing the humanmachine, or human-system, interface. Many of the elements which need attention appear in Figure 3. Highly complex industries such as the nuclear industry, following their experiences of some high-profile disasters or near-disasters, utilised HF/E to help design safer systems, that is to say, systems which enable the operators to perform their tasks more safely (perfect safety performance being impossible in highly complex systems). It does this by applying the knowledge of people’s abilities, limitations etc. to design. In other words it is designing systems for people, rather than expecting people to fit into a system designed around a task or a technology. In summary, blaming the operator, or ‘human error’, although it may be notionally correct and sometimes convenient, is not useful. It tends to obfuscate the failings in the system design and



results instead in attempts to directly change the operators’ behaviour, which are usually unsuccessful. Instead, the system could be modified to support the behaviour change, for example by conveying the system state better, or matching the processing workload to the operator’s capabilities, or removing the unsafe operations from the operator’s responsibility altogether. Don’t blame the consumer There are latent failures designed into societal systems which result in unsustainability. Yet it has been argued (Birkeland, 2008) that there is a ‘blame the consumer’ approach for unsustainable behaviours, particularly in relation to the built environment. Birkeland believes that societal systems are not well designed for achieving sustainable consumer behaviours: “while consumption and design issues are inseparable, the focus on consumer behaviour implies that society has to change behaviour first…But consumers do not design the systems that result in waste, toxins and inequity…they cannot ‘choose’ products that have not yet been designed…consumers demand services, not waste” (p65). It may be convenient to suggest that people ‘put on an extra jumper and catch the bus’, but the reality may be that people already live in unhealthily cold homes (Easton, 2010a) and at some distance from an unreliable and inconvenient bus route. How much easier would behavioural change be if we improved building design to not require so much heating, or public transport to be efficient and convenient? Birkeland (2008) believes this is a design issue: “design professions…[can] reduce consumption and create meaningful consumer choices. We may not be able to control how people use buildings or products, but we can design them so that conservation comes naturally and creates a higher quality of life.” (p65). The principles of design that would achieve these outcomes can be substantially informed by the accumulated knowledge base of the HF/E profession. In relation to the built environment “designers of materials, components, sites and buildings must learn to consider how to accommodate and stimulate responsible change in human needs and preferences” (ibid, p74). It has been noted that where energy savings are obtained by achieving efficiencies (e.g. from insulation, heat pumps and efficient whiteware), people often tend to change behaviours to ‘use up’ those savings by increasing the temperature of the house or heating period, having longer showers, by beginning new behaviours such as cooling their home mechanically in the summer, or by the introduction of personal entertainment equipment such as large TV sets and games machines which consume large amounts of power. This effect whereby savings are negated, is termed the ‘rebound effect’. McCalley, Midden & Haagdorens (2005) note that: “it would be a mistake to neglect interventions that target consumer behaviour. In fact, it may prove vital to counter changes in user behaviour that are brought about by technological interventions due to the ‘rebound effect’.” Birkeland (2008, p74) suggests that this could be addressed “by designing built environments to provide a rich range of low-impact choices…A comfortable and beautiful built environment can substitute for personal consumption and material goods.” The transtheoretical (stages of change) model has been applied to Transition (e.g. Noethe, 2000; Hopkins, 2008, p.85) and has much to commend it; however it has a key limitation from an HF/E perspective: it focuses on the individual and tries to change them, rather than the system. The transtheoretical model is the pre-eminent model for health behaviour change, having been developed in the context of breaking addictions and other unhealthy behaviours. It is argued that unsustainable behaviour is unhealthy/addictive and thus the model may be of



considerable relevance to assist in converting people’s behaviours into ones which are more sustainable. In the model, behaviour change must occur over a number of sequential stages (the stages are: precontemplation, contemplation, preparation, action and maintenance) and a range of strategies are needed to identify and encourage the appropriate education and actions for development at each stage. For example individuals at an early stage will not respond to action-oriented intervention strategies. Likewise, individuals at the action stage will not benefit from awareness-raising strategies. It is important to realize that action is not the same as change, rather that the change process provides the basis for action to occur. Change must occur in values first because it is the value system which guides decision making and behaviour. For enduring changes in action, a change in values must first occur. The action stage of the model then is simply the application of the changed values to decisions and behaviour. Although this model is valid and superior in terms of the lasting effect of changes compared with other behaviour modification techniques (Nickerson and Moray, 1995), it suffers from the fact that it addresses only the individual. It is a sophisticated ‘blame the consumer’ approach. Changing values within a system which does not itself reflect those values is likely to be a more difficult task than when an individual’s values are (initially) at odds with the predominant value system, due to normative/conformative pressures. Further, if a change in values is achieved then there still needs to be sustainable options available for people to choose at the action stage of the model. In summary, the overall system design needs addressing and cannot be successfully changed purely by focussing on user behaviour, values, etc. The system needs to be designed to give options for and to support sustainable choices by the user. In other words, although the problem is people’s behaviour, the solution will not be found by focussing on attempts to change it by education, warnings etc. Nickerson and Moray (1995) argued that “human factors research has much to contribute to the goal of shaping technology so that the natural consequences of its use for human ends will be more environmentally benign”. Case studies: achieving transition to sustainability using Human Factors/Ergonomics Case 1: Lessons from the Beacon Pathway Rotorua NOW Home NOW Homes are relatively conventional, more sustainable, homes built with today’s products and materials. Information about the project was obtained from Easton (2010b). The Rotorua NOW Home was Beacon Pathway’s second research project which involved construction of a house, in this case in conjunction with Housing New Zealand Corporation. The performance and comfort of the home was remotely monitored for one year while a family lived in it. Data was collected on energy use, water use, rainwater collection, temperature, indoor air quality, humidity and moisture levels. Despite many positives, this was not a completely successful project (although the ‘failures’ yielded valuable information, of course). There were some issues with the basic physical design and construction, but the biggest problem was that the design was not well matched with the tenants. They complained of too many lights on too few circuits; they did not like the concrete floor (possibly fearing their children or disabled family member might fall on it) and carpeted over it, making it ineffective as thermal mass; they used the pellet burner more like a conventional solid fuel burner, e.g. being fired-up in the evening but not being operated at night or in the morning, nor did they use the timer function (pellet burners have a hopper and the burn rate and time can be controlled). This latter issue could be due to the tenants’ mental



model of the pellet burner being more like a conventional solid fuel burner. It is not likely to be due to a cost saving attempt because the fuel was provided to the tenants for free. Inaccurate mental models for household systems are common, for example, many people believe that turning domestic thermostats up to higher temperatures produces heat more quickly, in the manner of a hot tap being opened further, but the thermostat controls only the temperature at which the heating switches on/off, not the rate of heating. Beacon Pathway have concluded that an operators/occupiers manual is needed for future NOW home developments. This may be of value, but it should be noted that this is less useful than designing self-explanatory systems which make their modes and states obvious to the user and which give salient, timely feedback on performance as well having well-designed, visible/accessible, controls. ‘Intuitive’ systems are used more effectively than systems which require manuals to explain their operation, by experienced as well as novice users. Another improvement which may have been less easy to implement in this case (being a Housing New Zealand home) but which is notably under-used in building design generally, is to involve the building users in the design. Participation is a key principle of many HF/E approaches and should be utilised more in building design. It is notable that the original NOW home design team in Waitakere City included an HF/E practitioner (Moore, 2007) and that building did not experience the same usability issues. Solving the system design issues may be difficult, but the result will be superior to anything that can be achieved by the production of user manuals. Work by McCalley, Midden & Haagdorens (2005) into Smart Home technologies takes a sociotechnical approach: “total control of the system by the user is likely to lower the efficiency of the system and total control by the system itself will cause it to be rejected by the user. It is therefore necessary to find the correct balance of control between the user and the system.” Their work is motivated by the fact that user behaviour is responsible for large amounts of waste (about a quarter to a third of home energy use is attributable to user behaviour according to various sources cited in McCalley et al., 2005). They suggest that this behaviour can be changed by providing carefully designed interfacing between appliances, centralised Smart Home systems and users, where “all household appliances could easily be monitored for energy use…[and] this information could be displayed via any computer in the household. Energy goals could then be set for either individual appliances or for total household energy use through the computer…The system would offer much more information, and thus control, than the standard monthly bill…it would show users the precise sources of highest consumption, allowing for changes in the household consumption pattern to be made with little effort or cost” (ibid). One of the challenges they identify is that the Smart Home will need to interact with more than one member of the family. Their research found that other household members override the program of the thermostat on a daily basis. This conflict can reduce the potential energy savings achievable and people account for potential interference/disagreement in the way they set the thermostat. Thus they believe that successful Smart Homes will need to give “energy-related feedback that is appropriate, and specific, to each household member” whilst paying attention to goal conflict resolution between users as well as goal maintenance (ibid). Case 2: Self-Explaining Roads Charlton (2003) applied HF/E to the redesign of a rural intersection with a high rate of injury crashes. All of the crashes occurred in daylight and the intersection from one approach



allowed a very clear sightline from a considerable distance. Analysis of the accidents (using a specific HF/E approach) resulted in the hypothesis that decisions to enter the intersection were taken as much as 100m from it, which combined with misperceptions of vehicle speed (or not perceiving an approaching vehicle at all) resulted in the collisions. Although design guidelines stipulate maximisation of sight lines, an intervention was trialled where shade cloth was installed to reduce visibility on the approach to the intersection; with the result that driver behaviour was modified, resulting in 30% slower approach speeds and elimination of serious crashes. Interestingly, only 56% of drivers noticed the screen and of those that did, the great majority found it acceptable. Charlton (2003) concluded that “the results support the philosophy that drivers can and do adjust their driving behaviour to suit road and traffic conditions and that road designers can manipulate road user behaviour to benefit safety”. What can be done at a junction can be applied to an entire road, or roading network, resulting in better perception of risks and hazards and thus self-enforced slower speeds and improved driving behaviour where appropriate. The need for warning signs, speed limits backed by enforcement, traffic calming such as chicanes and speed bumps, cages for pedestrians, even traffic lights, is much reduced or eliminated, with better results. This approach is called ‘selfexplaining roads’, based on Dutch road design, which changed course in the 1970s. At that time their fatality rate was 20% higher than the American rate. Now it is just two-fifths of the American rate. Self-explaining roads provide information (with perceptual cues rather than signage) to the users about the function of the road, so that appropriate behaviour can be undertaken. The self-explaining roads approach is also applied to other aspects of driver behaviour to encourage superior environmental outcomes, and to encourage alternative modes of transportation, such as cycling and walking, primarily by providing space for these users and designing out conflicts (Mackie, n.d.). Figure 4 shows some existing New Zealand roads which do not do a good job of communicating the desired behaviour. Figure 5 shows some existing roads from overseas which do.

Figure 4 – Non self-explaining roads, with posted speeds of 100, 80, 70, 60 & 50 km/hr, but all giving similar perceptual cues

Figure 5 – Self-explaining roads (access road, distributor-collector road, through road)



Figure 6 shows some designs for self-explaining roads in Pt England, Auckland (which have since been constructed). The trial projects (also Snells Beach and other areas) aim to “encourage an active lifestyle through safe biking and walking – promoting a happy and healthy community” and to design local transportation around the needs of residents “instead of adapting the way they travel to fit the roads around them” (SER poster, n.d.).

Figure 6 – Designs for Pt. England, Auckland

The benefits are that increased rates of cycling and walking and slower vehicle speeds all lead to lower vehicle emissions as well reduced accidents, and potentially to lower rates of vehicle ownership. Further benefits include more walkable neighbourhoods and improved social interaction, reduced healthcare costs and expenditure on fuels. A compatible system, which is inexpensive to implement, is the use of wide advisory cycle lanes in conjunction with the removal of the centre line (see Figure 7). It is important that the centre line be removed and that cycle lanes are not a minimum width as research has found that just adding cycle lanes may be more dangerous than having none as they cause vehicles to drive closer to cyclists. Drivers tend to position themselves between the centre line and the cycle lane line “in a position…appropriate for the visible highway horizontal geometry ahead” (Parkin & Meyers, 2009). Where there is no cycle lane the driver must consciously overtake rather than proceed in ‘their’ lane. Where there is no centre line, drivers must consciously enter the cycle lane to pass oncoming traffic. In both cases the decreased perception of safety results in safer behaviour (e.g. Cycling England, n.d.).

Figure 7 – Advisory cycle lanes in conjunction with removal of centre line (before and after in Felixstowe, England; The Netherlands – yes, cars can use this road)

Another similar concept is that of ‘shared space’, which means the removal of road markings, barriers and traffic signs and often the removal of the distinction between roads and pavements Auckland City Council (2009). The uncertainty for drivers causes more careful



behaviour, which makes the shared space attractive to pedestrians and generally vehicle numbers decrease, whilst still maintaining access. The rebound effect with regard to energy consumption has been discussed previously. Here is a parallel example. Increased safety and design features in cars (suspension, ABS, seat belts, air bags, etc.) have led to reduced risk perceptions by drivers, who have responded by increasing their speed and maintaining a similar level of risk (rather than accepting the lower risk and keeping speed constant) (Wilde, 2001). To a certain extent, separating road users and designing perceptually clear lanes has had a similar effect of reducing perceived risk. The road designs above seek to either make risks perceptually clearer or reduce perceptual cues that indicate absence of risk. In so doing they have broken the safety rebound effect. Perhaps a similar approach (making the energy consumption of household appliances and effects thereof more salient) could achieve the same for the energy consumption rebound effect? Another lesson is that the approaches that are successful are sociotechnical system design approaches, i.e. designing the interface between the driver and the road environment. Rather less successful have been attempts to educate drivers or cause drivers to modify their behaviour by warning signs and television advertisements. Furthermore, the changes achieved by The Netherlands since the 1970s did not arise because people independently chose to alter their driving habits or give up using their cars in favour of bicycles. Rather they arose because of a conscious decision to change the transportation system by redesigning roads (and cycleways) to support these system goals. Any number of education programmes extolling the virtues of cycling and explaining the problems associated with car use would not have the same result. Summary & Conclusions This paper has emphasised the need to design sociotechnical systems if durable changes are desired in people’s behaviour. Efforts at behavioural change that focus on changing the individual without simultaneously changing the system they are part of will tend to be ineffectual. Sustainable systems will need to embody the desired values, provide comprehensible, timely and salient feedback, and assist in goal maintenance and resolution of goal conflicts. The lesson ‘don’t blame the consumer’ of course is really a subset or exemplar of the wider lesson ‘one must design sociotechnical systems’ or ‘one must design humansystem interfaces in full cognisance of the wider sociotechnical system’. Although changes to people’s behaviours are required to achieve transition to sustainability, these changes must be addressed at the overall system level, and in particular at the human-system interface. This is the essence of the HF/E design process. Two positive examples of this, described in the present paper, are taken from a housing and a roading project in New Zealand. Acknowledgements Thanks are due to the reviewers of this paper whose comments prompted a number of improvements. References Auckland City Council (2009) Auckland’s CBD Into the Future: Shared space. Retrieved from: http://www.aucklandcity.govt.nz/council/projects/cbdproject/sharedspace.asp 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December Page 2010 24


Birkeland, J. (2008) Positive Development: From vicious circles to virtuous cycles through built environment design. London, England: Earthscan. Brown, C. & Legg. S. (2010) Human Factors/Ergonomics as a Method for Business Sustainability. Manuscript submitted for publication. Charlton, S. (2003) Restricting intersection visibility to reduce approach speeds. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 35, 817-823. Cherns, A. (1976) Human Relations, 29 (8), 783-792. Cycling England (n.d.) Case Study: Removing Road Centre-Lines and Centre-Hatching. Retrieved from: http://www.dft.gov.uk/cyclingengland/site/wpcontent/uploads/2008/09/removing_centre_lines.pdf Easton, L. (2010a) Sustainable Renovations: From Auckland to Invercargill. Presentation at Beacon Research Symposia 2010. Slides available at: http://beaconpathway.co.nz/images/uploads/Beacon_PPT_Sustainable_Renovations_Jun10.pdf Easton, L. (2010b) Rotorua NOW Home: A Collaborative Project. Presentation at Beacon Research Symposia 2010. Slides available at: http://beaconpathway.co.nz/images/uploads/Beacon_PPT_Rotorua_NOW_Home_Jun10.pdf IEA Council (2000) What is Ergonomics. Retrieved from: http://www.iea.cc/browse.php?contID=what_is_ergonomics Hopkins, R. (2008) The Transition Handbook: From oil dependency to local resilience. TJ International: Padstow, England. Mackie, H.W. (2009). Self Explaining Roads. Invited presentation at the FLOW 2009 TDM conference 10-11 March, Auckland. McCalley, L., Midden, C. & Haagdorens, K. (2005) Computing systems for household energy conservation: Consumer response and social ecological considerations. In Proceedings of CHI 2005 Workshop on Social Implications of Ubiquitous Computing. McDonough, W. & Braungart, M. (2002) Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the way we make things. North Point Press: NY. Moore, D. (2007) The ergonomist and the eco house: the use of an experimental Collective Design Process in sustainable residential construction. Proceedings of the New Zealand Ergonomics Society Conference, Waiheke Island, 7-9 November 2007. ISBN 0-9582560-1-2. Moray, N. (2000) Culture, politics and ergonomics. Ergonomics, 43 (7). Taylor & Francis. Nickerson, R. & Moray, N. (1995) Environmental Change. In R. Nickerson (Ed.) Emerging Needs and Opportunities for Human Factors Research. National Academy Press: Washington D.C. Noethe, J. (2000) Bridging the Gap: An empirically-supported phenomenological study of environmental living. (Doctoral dissertation, Notre Dame University). Retrieved from: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.86.1207&rep=rep1&type=pdf Parkin, J. & Meyers, C. (2009) The effect of cycle lanes on the proximity between motor traffic and cycle traffic. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 42, 159-165. Reason, J. (1990) Human Error. Cambridge University Press: UK. SANZ (Sustainable Aotearoa New Zealand Inc.) (2009) Strong sustainability for New Zealand: Principles and scenarios. Nakedise Ltd.: Wellington. SER poster (n.d.). Poster used to advertise and describe Self Explaining Roads project. TERNZ. UNCED (1992) Report of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. Rio Declaration on Environment and Development. Retrieved from: http://www.un.org/documents/ga/conf151/aconf15126-1annex1.htm Wilde, G. (2001) Target Risk 2: A new psychology of safety and health. PDE Publications: Toronto.



Author: Byrd, Dr. Hugh* Co-author: Rehm, Dr. Michael** The University of Auckland *School of Architecture & Planning, Building 421, 26 Symonds Street, Auckland **The Business School, Owen G Glenn Building, 12 Grafton Road, Auckland Tel; +64 9 373 7599 ext. 88691 Email: [email protected] Title: Changing Architecture for a Changing Climate; Unsustainable Trends in New Zealand Category: Beyond Today’s Infrastructure Abstract: To be sustainable, buildings should usefully last for many generations. This requires building designers to have some knowledge of the future climate and the resources available to maintain the operations, in particular the energy consumption, of buildings. The New Zealand climate is predicted to get hotter and an energy gap to emerge as fossil fuels deplete and seasonal hydroelectricity production declines due to the retreat of glaciers. The historical peak demand of electricity for buildings has been for winter heating. This is now shifting to a summer cooling demand. Building design should be responding by designing with climate rather than against it. Appropriate consideration of solar shading, thermal mass and natural ventilation systems can provide comfort conditions within buildings with the minimum use of energy. However, the trend in New Zealand has been for commercial buildings to be designed without consideration to excessive solar heat gains resulting in lightweight, highly glazed built forms that are dependent on air-conditioning. This is typical of almost all the buildings that have been accredited as ‘green’ buildings using voluntary rating tools. This paper will review those aspects of climate change and fuel depletion that will have an impact on buildings both in the short and longer term. In particular the predicted average temperature increases and the impact this will have on energy demand for air-conditioning. The conflict between a building’s image, which affects its rental rating, and environmental performance, which affects its sustainability rating, will be discussed. The paper will argue that both building design and environmental standards should change to allow adaptation by occupants to a hotter climate and that dependence on mechanical cooling systems should be avoided due to an insecure supply of energy in the longer term.

4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 26


Trends in the relationship of energy and buildings It is only in the last 100 years that mankind has harnessed enough energy from, primarily, fossil fuels to be able to construct buildings that can ignore the climate around them and exclude the natural environment from within them. Energy has allowed architects to design buildings that can ignore natural ventilation, daylight and the sun’s energy by replacing it with an artificial environment that is air-conditioned, humidified and artificially lit. This ability to use mechanical means to control the environment has allowed architects to freely experiment with the form, fabric and materials of a building in the knowledge that, however poorly the building envelope performs, the internal environment of a building can always be remedied by using more energy for cooling, heating or lighting. This has led to an architecture that is characterised by large areas of glass incorporated in the external facade and air-conditioning internally. While this building type has a significant amount of natural light around the perimeter, it relies on artificial ventilation, heating and cooling systems in order to maintain a habitable environment internally. By burning energy in some remote power station, the building can operate both day and night and remain reasonably comfortable so long as this umbilical link to the supply of energy can be maintained. This style of highly-glazed, lightweight, air-conditioned, poorly insulated building with no consideration to the position of the sun or prevailing winds has kept building scientists employed for decades. The problems that this style of building caused have been analysed, modelled and publicised. Problems such as ‘sick building syndrome’, overheating, glare and excessive energy consumption are well documented. However, the powerful brand image that this building type portrays drives its continued production. Such is the dependence of these buildings on energy that, if the supply should fail, they become uninhabitable. This was witnessed, for example, in the power failures to the Eastern Seaboard of the USA in August 2003 when New Yorkers had to evacuate most of the buildings in the city because they had non-opening windows and air-conditioning systems in which the air for breathing ran out in under an hour and internal temperatures surged within minutes (Roaf, 2007). We are now in an era where there is a general understanding that fossil fuels are depleting and our dependence on an adequate supply of energy cannot be assured (Energy Watch Group 2007 & 2008). In this context, it is surprising that these building types continue and even promote themselves as ‘environmentally sustainable’. For example, in New Zealand most ‘green’ office buildings are highly glazed, thermally lightweight and air-conditioned. An interrupted supply of electricity would render them uninhabitable. While these ‘accredited’ buildings have a very small impact on New Zealand’s energy consumption, their prominence and publicity has disproportionate consequences on architectural practice and education. They become icons to ‘sustainability’ and yet they are so dependent on resources that are not necessarily sustainable. They are designed with little resilience to fuel depletion or global warming.



The impact of climate change on energy supply and demand New Zealand has enjoyed the benefit of low electricity prices due to natural resources such as the Maui gas field and a large proportion of hydro-electric power in the national power mix. With the imminent arrival of international ‘peak oil’ and the depletion of New Zealand’s gas reserves, energy prices of fossil fuels will increase. This is likely to put further pressure on electricity production as demand shifts from fossil fuels to cheaper fuels. Apart from ‘peak oil’ and ‘peak gas’, New Zealand also faces ‘peak hydro’. The hydro industry has long formed the backbone of New Zealand’s successful power sector. It has provided a relatively constant 60% of total electricity production since the 1930s and enabled the country to enjoy some of the lowest power tariffs in the world. The big fear is that an unusually severe drought would trigger power rationing and the vulnerability of the power sector to dry years is becoming increasingly apparent with the decline of the Maui gas reserves. Since gas and hydro currently (Ministry of Economic Development, 2010) produce about 76% of New Zealand’s electricity, this makes the country very vulnerable to an energy gap that could result in energy rationing and consequent brown/blackouts. One of the biggest problems with New Zealand’s existing hydro schemes is the lack of water storage capacity. New Zealand’s hydro schemes do not benefit from such large reservoir capacity and most have just several months’ worth of storage (Waterpower, 2006). They are therefore more vulnerable to annual or even seasonal fluctuations in precipitation and snow melt. For example, the variation in electricity production during the course of a year in the 1990s was around 20%. In January 2010 the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) stated (Jowit, 2010a) “Glaciers across the globe are continuing to melt so fast that they many well disappear by the middle of this century”. The WGMS records data for nearly 100 of the world's approximately 160,000 glaciers, including 30 "reference" glaciers, with data going back to at least 1980. New Zealand’s glaciers have an estimated volume of about 53Km3 and have been gradually decreasing in volume over the last century by about one quarter to one third (Hay, 2008). More than half the water entering hydroelectric lakes comes from glacial water (Fitzharris, 1989). However, global warming will have an impact on this. Predictions of a 3oC (NIWA 2008) temperature rise and 15% increase in precipitation indicate a significant decrease in snow accumulation resulting in increased flows of 40% in the winter and a 13% decrease in the summer. With increased temperatures, the peak demand for electricity will shift towards summer rather than winter. There will also be an increased demand for water for irrigation during the summer. This will reduce the ability of the hydroelectric power sector to provide an unfluctuating supply and could result in significant reduction in the hydroelectricity supply in the future.



The predicted increase in electricity production from wind power will play an important role in replacing the decreased production due to fossil fuels and hydro in the future. However, wind power is intermittent, cannot be relied upon to match with peak demands and is expensive to store. This has recently been illustrated in the UK (Jowit, 2010b) where a fall of 7.5% in power obtained from wind, hydro and other renewable sources in the first 3 month of 2010 was blamed on a dry winter with low wind speeds. There will also be competition by other users for the electricity produced by wind power. The electric vehicle industry (Smith, 2009) view the night-time production of electricity from wind power as an obvious alternative energy source to oil-derived fuels and, since transport currently consumes almost half the total energy supply in New Zealand, electric vehicles will have the potential to consume nearly all electricity produced by wind power. If this were the case, it would leave little residual energy for buildings. There is also likely to be a significant increase in demand of electricity in both winter and summer due to the increased use of heat pumps in residential buildings. Government subsidies for heat pump installations (‘Warm Up New Zealand: Heat Smart programme’) have led to a significant growth in the heat pump market. Research has indicated (French, 2008) that these devices are displacing non-electric heating, thereby increasing the demand for electricity in the winter. Furthermore many households, almost 2/3rds of the sample surveyed, are using their heat pumps for cooling as well as heating. Higher average temperatures in New Zealand will have the combined effect of increasing demand on electricity while decreasing the output of hydro power throughout the summer months. ‘Peak oil’ and its consequences are likely to increase the demand on electricity throughout the year if there is to be a shift towards the use of electric vehicles. While wind power will help offset the loss in energy supply, there remains a potential gap between supply and demand in the near future. Trends in energy consumption in ‘green’ buildings With a potential energy gap, new buildings play an important role in reducing electricity demand and there is a clear priority for ‘green’ buildings to address this issue. While all building designs must achieve the minimum Building Code standards in New Zealand, there is a growing trend to achieving alternative voluntary standards set by ‘rating tools’ which attempt to measure the ‘sustainability’ of a building. This trend follows other countries, most notably the UK and US, where rating tools, BREEAM and LEED respectively, have been in operation for over a decade. These ‘rating tools’ measure ‘energy’ as one of the criteria for achieving accreditation. In New Zealand, energy consumption is given a maximum of 25% of the total score though many high profile ‘green’ buildings do not even achieve half of this score. For example, for those case studies of air conditioned office buildings on the New Zealand Green Building Council web site (NZGBC 2010) the average score for ‘energy’ is only 50% of the available.



This means that the ‘rating tool’ allows building designs to be accredited when ‘energy’ is valued at approximately 12.5% (50% of 25%) of the total rating tool value. A new building can potentially achieve a 4 or 5 star NZ Green Building Rating while only just achieving the minimum required code standards for the thermal performance of the building envelope. This means it is possible to achieve “best practice” or “New Zealand Excellence” rating while the building envelope is almost breaking the law (Building Act). This brings into question whether rating tools are being used for improved environmental design or whether they are being used for brand image. This issue was addresses in research (Gabe 20101) on the first 450 LEED accredited buildings. There is growing evidence from the body of research into both the design and actual performance of LEED certified buildings that the prime motivation behind the use of rating tools is for commercial marketing and promotion rather than for any environmental concerns. In architecture, this is where there is a significant conflict between style and performance. Low energy efficiency standards for the building envelope and a low value given to ‘energy’ in rating tools allow the opportunity to use large areas of glazing. Many high profile ‘Green’ buildings in NZ have taken this opportunity and have been designed with a large proportion of glazing for purposes of image. For example, the Green Building cases studies (NZGBC 2010) of new office developments average in excess of 80% of glass on those facades that directly serve office spaces and, in some cases approach 100%. High proportions of glazing lead to an overall poor energy performance of a building since glass does not perform well and readily allows useful energy out or unwanted energy in. This results in excessive heat losses when there is an overall heat demand and excessive solar heat gains, particularly if the glazing is not adequately shaded. While a high proportion of glazing admits daylight, the proportion of glazing has little effect if the glass is below the working plane (Pedrini, 2003) and if the room is deeper than about 7m. The conflicting energy demands of lighting, heating and cooling need to be balanced. Balancing the energy demand of heating, cooling and lighting is usefully illustrated by the ‘LT Method’ of predicting environmental performance, developed at Cambridge University (Baker, 1994). For well insulated buildings in temperate climates it is difficult to justify a proportion of glazing of more than 50% irrespective of orientation or internal lighting level. It could be argued, in particular for Zone 1 in New Zealand that, with a changing climate, a temperate model is inappropriate. To overcome this, the LT Method was adapted by the University of Queensland (Hyde, 1998) for a sub-tropical climate. This model indicated that an even lower proportion of glazing was optimal. Indicating that as the climate warms there is an even greater requirement to reduce the proportion of glazing in a building’s envelope. The impact of interrupted energy supplies on buildings The majority of New Zealand’s ‘green’ rated buildings are not only highly glazed but are also fully air-conditioned with unopenable windows. Although openable windows are undesirable while air conditioning is in operation, it also means that these buildings cannot work as either



naturally ventilated or mixed mode buildings at other times. This makes them vulnerable to electricity supply failures. The depletion of fossil fuels and seasonal hydro electricity will significantly increase the risk of maintaining a constant and adequate electricity supply to buildings. The predicted higher average temperatures and reduced rainfall will accentuate the seasonal differences in electricity supply. This, combined with the likely exponential growth in the electric vehicle market and increased use of heat pumps in housing, may well result in interrupted supplies of electricity in summer months. Buildings that are air-conditioned, excessively glazed and unable to be naturally ventilated rapidly overheat in summer conditions to the extent that they become uninhabitable. Under these conditions they need to be evacuated and limit, if not halt, production. The rental value of commercial property in CBDs is rated (generally A to D) according to its desirability. An essential characteristic for A and B rated buildings is air-conditioning. While electricity is abundant and cheap, these building types are desirable. However, this could all change when electricity prices increase and supplies become interrupted as a frequent and lasting problem. Green buildings are frequently promoted on the basis of increasing productivity. This is not a straight forward characteristic to quantify and is generally measured by a questionnaire asking occupants if they consider that they are more productive in their new building (Leaman, 2010). If there are to be regular energy shortages, rationing or blackouts in the future, then production will dramatically decline in air-conditioned buildings. Over a prolonged period the market is likely to shift to buildings that can remain in operation; naturally ventilated buildings. It is plausible that A and B rated buildings could change to D ratings in the future. Adapting comfort standards In a changing climate with predicted increases in temperature, ‘green’ buildings in New Zealand are still being designed with a dependence on air-conditioning. There appears to be an assumption that there will be an adequate supply of energy for the whole lifetime of the building that can maintain current comfort standards. This may be the case for buildings that can be certain of a secure an enduring supply of renewable energy. However, for the overwhelming majority of buildings, there is no unconditional security of an uninterrupted energy supply. The drive for air-conditioning is partly motivated by the corporate clients whose key drivers are dictated by brand image and ‘real estate strategy’ of achieving Grade A or B rated space (Pellett, 2010). It is an area where rating tools are also fostering the use of air-conditioning and could provide improved guidance by balancing some of the conflicting requirements and standards of ‘Indoor Environmental Quality’ (IEQ) with ‘Energy’. Historical comfort standards are emerging as a significant impediment to reducing energy demand in buildings (Roaf, 2009). Standards for noise levels within offices, incorporated in



IEQ for rating tools, promote sealed buildings that negate natural ventilation. Lighting standards are based on an outdated method of measuring our perception of light that has resulted in the over specification of both daylight and artificial light (Cuttle). Above all, temperature standards offer little flexibility for accepting the fluctuating and less predictable variations that occur in a naturally ventilated building. With increased long-term average temperatures due to climate change, a decision has to be made whether buildings will become artificially cooled retreats or whether we learn to accept higher temperatures and adapt to buildings with warmer and fluctuating internal temperatures that may exceed current standards (Roaf et al, 2010). The former requires an ever increasing supply of energy to cool buildings while the latter allows for the potential of zero energy buildings. Conclusions Readily available and cheap energy supplies have historically allowed architecture to rely on its mechanical plant, rather than fabric, to heat, cool and light buildings. This has resulted in highly glazed buildings that consume a disproportionate amount of energy. However, this building type has had a universal appeal to organisations that see this style as increasing their brand image. In the last few years many organisations have also come to realise that ‘sustainability’ is also an important brand image. Rating tools for ‘green’ buildings have become a marketing tool in this respect. However, this can result in a conflict between the style of a building and its environmental performance. Highly glazed, lightweight, air-conditioned buildings are good for image in a CBD but they are high energy consumers and will perform progressively more poorly as climate change pervades. Peak oil and peak gas are now imminent and climate change could also result in ‘peak hydro’ in New Zealand making the country very vulnerable to an energy gap that could result in energy rationing and consequent brown/blackouts. Not only will the energy costs of these building types increase but so also will their inability to remain adequately productive. The claim that ‘green’ buildings are more productive will not be tenable in the event of recurring interrupted supplies of electricity. In the event of an electricity supply failure, highly glazed, air-conditioned buildings will become uninhabitable. While the main drive behind the design of these buildings in brand image, ‘green’ rating tools are inadvertently also promoting this building type. If the mission of ‘green’ rating tools is to accelerate the transformation of the global built environment towards sustainability, then it needs to reconsider the criteria to take account of energy depletion, climate change and the consequent need for adaptation by building occupants. References Baker, N., Steemers, K. (1994) The LT Method v 2.0, The Martin Centre for Architectural & Urban Studies, Cambridge.



Cuttle, C. (2010) Towards the Third Stage of the Lighting Profession, Lighting Research and Technology, Vol. 42, No. 1, 73-93 (2010) Energy Watch Group (2007) Coal: Resources & Future Production. EWG-Series No 1/2007 http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Report_Coal_10-072007ms.pdf. accessed July 2010. Energy Watch Group (2008) Crude Oil- the Supply Outlook. http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/200802_EWG_Oil_Report_updated. pdf accessed July 2010. Fitzharris J and Hay J (1989) Glaciers: Can they Weather the Storm of Climate Change? In Proceedings 15th New Zealand Geography Conference, ed R Welch, 284-291, New Zealand Geographical Society. French L, Isaacs N, Camilleri M. (2008) ‘Residential Heat Pumps in New Zealand’. 29th AIVC Conference, Kyoto, Japan Gabe J, (2010) ‘Creating an Efficient Market for Green Buildings: What can We Learn from the First 450 Users of the LEED Assessment Tool? Proceedings of the SB10 Conference, Wellington, New Zealand. Gonçalves, J. (2010) Environmental Performance of Tall Buildings. Earth. Hay, J. & Elliott, T. (2008) New Zealand’s Glaciers in; Darkening Peaks: Glacier Retreats, Science & Society. By Orlove, B.,Wiegandt, E., Luckman, B., University of California Press 2008 Hyde R, (1998), A Lighting Thermal and Ventilation (LTV) Design Tool for Non-domestic Buildings in Tropical and Subtropical Regions: Preliminary Assessment of Design Integration,’ in the proceedings of the ANZAScA Conference, pp.41-48. Jowit, J. (2010a) Worlds Glaciers Continue to melt at Historic Rates. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/25/world-glacier-monitoring-servicefigures. Accessed June 2010 Jowit, J. (2010b) Green Setback for UK as British Power Supplied by Renewable Sources Falls. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jun/28/drive-switch-green-powersetback Leaman, A. (2010) ‘Green’ buildings: are they really better for their users? Proceedings of the SB10 Conference, Wellington, New Zealand. Ministry of Economic Development (2010) New Zealand Energy Quarterly, Issue 10, Released 16th June 2010. NIWA (2008) Climate Change Projections for New Zealand. http://www.niwa.co.nz/ourscience/climate/information-and-resources/clivar/scenarios. Accessed July 2010 NZGBC (2010) web site content http://www.nzgbc.org.nz/main/greenstar/elaboration/casestudies. Accessed June 30 2010



Pedrini, A, (2003) ‘Integration of Low Energy Strategies to the Early Stages of Design Process of Office Buildings in Warm Climate’. PhD thesis, University of Queensland. Pellett, G. (2010) Harbour Quays, Proceedings of the SB10 Conference, Wellington, New Zealand. Roaf, S., Fuentes, M., Thomas, S., (2007). Ecohouse (3rd Edition).Architectural Press Roaf, S. (2009) Adaptive Thermal Comfort; the 21st century approach, Green Building Magazine, pp.30-33, Winter 09. Roaf, S., Nicol, F., Humphreys, M., Tuohy,P. & Boerstra, A. (2010) 20th Century Standards for Thermal Comfort: promoting high energy buildings, Architectural Science Review, Vol. 53.1, January Smith, B (2009) “Electric Vehicles and generation development”. NZ Electricity Commission. Conference on :The Impact of Electric Vehicles on the NZ Electricity System. http://www.electricitycommission.govt.nz/pdfs/opdev/modelling/GPAs/presentations29Feb08/electricvehicles.pdf. Accessed July 2010 Waterpower (2006) Editorial, International water power and dam construction (2006) “Hydro in the Mix in New Zealand”. http://www.waterpowermagazine.com/story.asp?sectionCode=166&storyCode=2039414 accessed July 2010



Carbon Now and Carbon Futures – a systems and performance based approach to reducing GHG emissions in the Auckland region.

Authors:

Perry, Robert, Principal Policy Analyst – Auckland Council; and Chambers, Paul, Sustainability Project Leader – Auckland Council.

Contact:

Robert Perry: Ph 09 366 2000 (x8343), E [email protected] Private Bag 92012, Auckland, New Zealand.

Category:

Resilient Societies


Carbon Now & Carbon Futures

1


Carbon Now and Carbon Futures – a systems and performance based approach to reducing GHG emissions in the Auckland region. By Robert Perry and Paul Chambers Abstract The Auckland Regional Council (ARC) has led a consortium of all Auckland councils and key stakeholders to develop an integrated regional policy response to address the critical climate change-related issues affecting the Auckland region’s resilience and sustainable development. The development of climate mitigation policy has been underpinned by two separate but complementary initiatives known as Carbon Now, and Carbon Futures. Carbon Now is a performance and systems based management framework for measuring, monitoring and reporting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions against prescribed targets. Carbon Futures refers to a backcasting and visioning study which sought to (i) develop long-term (year 2040) emissions projections, and (ii) to evaluate a suite of mitigations to achieve a range of reduction targets. These initiatives were developed in five broad stages. Stage one focused on the development of the Carbon Now framework and guidelines to provide a consistent methodology for the development of a detailed regional emissions inventory. An initial estimation of Auckland regional GHG emissions was undertaken in stage two based on a 2006 base year. In stage three a suite of potential GHG mitigation options were identified and evaluated to deliver GHG reductions and broader co-benefits for Auckland region. Stage four was the development of the Auckland regional GHG emission inventory using the Carbon Now Framework. In stage five a series of modified projection have be evaluated based on a series of scenarios and underpinning assumptions. It was estimated using a ‘top down’ approach (stage one) that Auckland’s regional emissions have risen by 17.7% between 2001 and 2008, compared to a 26% increase rise in national emissions since 1990. It was predicted that by 2040, regional emissions will increase by 87.3% relative to 2001 levels. The Auckland regional footprint equated to 10,040,084 tonnes carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or 7.02 TCO2e per capita in 2009. Revised emissions projections as developed by taking a ‘bottom up’ approach using the Carbon Now framework (and based on business as usual) indicate a 4% increase by 2015, a 12% increase by 2025 and a 33% increase by 2040. Acknowledgements The ARC would like to acknowledge the significant support, cooperation and assistance of the councils in the Auckland region, PricewaterhouseCooper, AECOM and URS New Zealand Limited in the development and implementation of the Carbon Now, and Carbon Futures initiative.

4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 362 Carbon Now & Carbon Futures


Introduction As signatories to the Communities for Climate Protection – New Zealand (CCP-NZ), the ARC and the councils of the Auckland region formalised their commitment to address the management and reduction of corporate and community GHG emission. CCP-NZ was a part of International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives global programme aimed at empowering local governments to take responsibility for measuring and reducing GHG emissions. CCP-NZ has been an instrumental systems based tool in initiating local mitigation actions, and provided key inputs in climate advocacy efforts of cities and local governments. However, the varied interpretation of the methodology by different councils has meant that comparability, consistency and accuracy of GHG inventories across council jurisdictions was problematic. Furthermore the potential opportunities that are provided through benchmarking have remained unrealised. In 2009, the National Government of New Zealand ended funding to support the CCPNZ programme. Consequently there was no single tool or programme to underpin, integrate and report the individual and collective contribution of local government initiatives in contributing to national reduction targets. Furthermore there was a fundamental need for greater accuracy, consistency and comparability across councils emissions inventories in accordance with international standards and best practice. The ARC therefore led a consortium of the councils in the Auckland region to seek a simpler, transparent more robust approach to measuring managing and reporting the reduction of GHG emissions across council jurisdictions. It also sought to develop the evidence base to inform the development of climate mitigation policy. The response was to develop Carbon Now, a systems and performance framework by which regional and local councils could measure GHG emissions, manage, monitor and report reductions against the agreed targets across council jurisdictions in a clear, consistent and comparable manner. Stage one of Carbon Now was developed by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) and comprised of guidelines, corporate and community inventory tools and GHG emission factors. Stage two focused on the development of the Carbon Futures project and was undertaken concurrently with the development of the Carbon Now framework. In doing so, the ARC engaged Maunsell AECOM to undertake a GHG emissions backcasting and visioning study which sought firstly to establish an estimated baseline inventory, backcasted 1990 emission levels and business as usual projections to 2040. In stage three, a suite of potential mitigation options were identified and evaluated. Mitigation options for reducing regional GHG emissions were evaluated using multi-criteria analysis to determine cost effective policy interventions to deliver GHG reductions and broader co-benefits for Auckland region. In stage four and five, URS NZ Limited (URS) were engaged to trial the Carbon Now framework (stage one output) in the Auckland region. Their role was to calculate a revised GHG emissions inventory (community emissions only) and revise long terms projections (the outputs of stages two and three). This was based on a ‘bottom up’ approach using regional datasets and national emission factors. The project also sought to identify a proposed project plan and methodology to establish a consolidated corporate emissions inventory for the Auckland Council and it’s Council Controlled Organisations. In stage five a series of modified projections were evaluated, based on a series of scenarios and underpinning assumptions.



Methodology - Carbon Now GHG inventories are a fundamental tool assisting local government to account for, manage and monitor their corporate emissions, as well as those that are community generated. A range of national and international protocols and standards provided the specifications, guidance (at the organisation level) and conventions for quantification and reporting of GHG emissions (and removals). These include: •

GHG Protocol, (Bhatia P., and Ranganathan J., 2004);

•

International Standard ISO 14064-1 (2006);

•

Global Reporting Institute’s Public Sector Agencies (2010);

•

Local Government GHG Protocol, International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (2008);

•

Guidance for voluntary corporate GHG reporting, Ministry for the Environment (2008).

While such standards and protocols provide consistency as to “what should be counted at the corporate level”, they do not indicate, “how the counting should be done” either directly through a tool or through a specific methodology for local government. The interpretation and application of inventory methodologies across local government is discretionary and it is subject to variability (e.g. no standard definition of organisational and operational boundaries; the inclusion of suppliers and contractors, or base years used). Therefore Carbon Now established the conventions at each of the points of flexibility or discretion in quantifying the GHG emissions from both internal operations and from the communities within council’s geopolitical boundaries. In accounting for GHG emissions, a council’s sphere of influence and control can be reported in a number of different categories (Figure 1). The Primary Level of reporting refers to a council’s own operations, i.e. the emissions arising from the direct use of a council’s significant assets and services. In many of the international protocols aimed at GHG emissions reductions, this is commonly referred to as the ‘corporate’ or ‘government’ inventory. The next level of influence is that over relationships with council-controlled operations, contractors and suppliers. In many cases the services supplied are indirect services that councils would ordinarily be providing. In the Carbon Now framework, this is regarded as the Secondary Level of reporting and is part of ‘government’ or ‘corporate’ emissions inventory (Table 1). This refers to emissions arising from the use of all significant assets and services and therefore includes the Primary and Secondary Levels of reporting from the Carbon Now framework. The variety of emission sources that should be considered to calculate an emissions profile will vary considerably between councils, depending on the range of activities and operations they undertake.



Figure 1 Carbon Now GHG emissions accounting and reporting framework

1

These are indicative as targets and are not currently set.

Essentially, under the conventions of the international Greenhouse Gas Protocol, councils direct emissions (i.e. those over which they have direct control such as fuel consumed for heating) are regarded as scope 1. All emissions associated with purchased electricity are regarded as scope 2, and relevant and significant indirect sources (i.e. those that council does not control but which would have a direct impact on the footprint size if left out) are regarded as scope 3 sources (Bhatia P., and Ranganathan J., 2004). Carbon Now is the completion of an inventory for the baseline year 1 July 2006 – 30 June 2007. This gave a snapshot of GHG emissions for both the ‘government’ and ‘community’ inventories across all of the eight councils’ jurisdictions in the Auckland region. Table 1: How Carbon Now corresponds to the international GHG reporting protocol conventions. Carbon Now framework

International GHG reporting protocols

Primary

Government or corporate

Secondary Tertiary

Community

State of the Environment Emissions attributed to the councils policies and programmes (Tertiary) and cityregion-wide emissions are also both regarded as part of the ‘community’ inventory in international reporting on greenhouse gases. Community emissions inventory are those activities that occur within the context of the local government’s policies i.e. those that are influenced by the local government’s policies, called the ‘geopolitical’ boundary in the Local Government GHG Protocols. Emissions designated as State of the Environment refer to sources within the geopolitical boundary, but outside the influence of the Auckland councils.



Methodology - Carbon Futures The methodology underpinning the Carbon Futures project (stages two and three) is detailed in the conference paper Hughes, J, Goldthorpe, S. and Perry, R.H., (2010). Stage four was undertaken by URS and sought to trial the Carbon Now framework to develop an inventory of emissions within the Auckland region, using the 2009 calendar year as the baseline. In doing so revised business as usual emissions projections were developed over the short term (up to 2015), medium term (up to 2025) and long term (up to 2040). This work refines and updates previous projections completed by Maunsell AECOM in 2008 through improved baseline data provision (Maunsell AECOM, 2008). Emissions projections were based upon 2009 baseline levels and extrapolated out to 2015, 2025 and 2040 levels by calculated sector growth (or shrinkage), based on historical consumption or production figures. URS obtained this data from the Ministry for the Environment’s National Inventory Reports and the Ministry for Economic Development’s Energy Data Files. For each emission source (e.g. natural gas) URS recorded the activity data changes between 2000 and 2009, applied a linear trend line, then using the 2009 data as a baseline, extrapolated this data out to the short, medium and long term. For less significant emission sources URS applied the overall rate of emissions change for New Zealand as estimated in the National Inventory Reports between 2000 and 2008. In some cases emission source data showed an historical negative trend. The resulting data for each emission source was summed to provide the overall projections for the short, medium and long term. Results Maunsell AECOM estimated that the Auckland region’s GHG emissions for 2006 totalled 11.93 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. This was an increase of 1.79 million tonnes in the five years since 2001 (see Table 2). Auckland’s regional GHG emissions have risen by approximately 17.7 per cent between 2001-2006 compared to a 26 per cent rise in national GHG emissions since 1990. Table 2 Auckland regions estimated GHG emissions, 1990 – 2012, Maunsell (2006) Auckland region’s New Zealand estimated GHG GHG emissions emissions (Mt (Mt CO2 –e) CO2 –e)

Auckland as % of national emissions

% NZ population resident in the Auckland region

1990

7.9

61.9

12.8%

28% (1991)

2001

10.14

72.4

14%

30%

2006

11.93

77.9

15.3%

33%

Without any further action, it is predicted that by 2040, regional GHG emissions will increase by 87.3% (based on stage two initial estimations) relative to 2001 levels. The current national Kyoto commitment requires New Zealand to reduce its GHG emissions back to 1990 levels by 2012. If the Auckland region were to achieve this, we would need to reduce GHG emissions by approximately 40% (based on stage two initial estimations) by 2012.



In stage three a suite of potential mitigation options were identified and mitigation options for reducing regional GHG emissions were evaluated using multi-criteria analysis to determine cost effective policy interventions to deliver GHG emission reductions and broader co-benefits for Auckland region. The methodology, findings and outcomes of stage three are detailed in the conference paper Hughes, J, Goldthorpe, S. and Perry, R.H., (2010). In undertaking stage four, URS calculated estimated that the Auckland region’s GHG emissions in 2009 (Table 3) totaled 10.040 million tones of CO2 equivalent or 7.02 TCO2e per capita. It is estimated that GHG emissions will increase by 4% by 2015, 12% by 2025, and 33% by 2040. Based on estimated population forecasts for the region it is indicated that GHG emissions per capita will decrease to 6.69 TCO2e/capita (2015), 6.33 TCO2e/capita (2025) and 6.06 TCO2e/capita (2040). Auckland’s carbon emissions profile (Figures 2 and 3) is relatively unique, particularly when compared to similar other cities in Australia and North America. This is because the proportion of GHG emissions is transport related (35% in 2009) as opposed to industry (14% in 2009) or agriculture (5% in 2009). High transport emissions means that any package of mitigation measures for the Auckland region is likely to be different to packages for much of the rest of New Zealand, emphasising more sustainable transport options and spatial planning measures ahead of agricultural innovations. Table 3 Estimated Auckland regional GHG emission footprint for 2009 and projections until 2040. Greenhouse Gas Emissions (t CO2e) Natural gas Coal sub bituminous Diesel Petrol Fugitive emissions Iron and steel production Agriculture Forestry and other land use Electricity Air travel Marine transport Waste

2009 t CO2e 603,450 1,611,720 1,297,299 2,498,430 225,212 1,539,205 590,219

2015 t CO2e 459,708 1,592,476 1,527,435 2,672,743 243,360 1,473,699 608,753

2025 t CO2e 292,113 1,560,911 2,005,245 2,990,709 276,913 1,370,658 640,947

2040 t CO2e 147,963 1,514,734 3,016,298 3,539,970 336,112 1,229,447 692,458

-1,206,922 1,776,226 162,420 325,128 617,698

-1,145,121 1,948,479 175,507 351,326 489,584

-1,049,072 2,273,481 199,705 399,766 332,336

-919,890 2,865,399 242,399 485,229 185,868

Total

10,040,084

10,397,949

11,293,713

13,335,988



Figure 2 Provisional CO2-eq estimates for Auckland region for 2009

Figure 3 Emissions by source for Auckland region for 2009

The ‘Princeton Wedge’ is a commonly used term to describe a series of graphical data representations, which are variations on the theme of stabilisation of atmospheric GHG concentrations and the reductions in emissions required to meet a given level. The premise behind a Princeton Wedge graphical representation is that each wedge represents one greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The ‘y’ axis typically contains atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Such a display allows the effect of one scenario to be easily visualised and compared with the effect of another scenario. In the business as usual CO2-equivalent emissions Projections for Auckland region, eight ‘wedges’ depict eight different greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation scenarios. The different colours each represent a range of possible atmospheric GHG concentrations, which correlate to various GHG emissions rates. It is clear



from this ‘Princeton Wedge’ type of representation that reducing emissions does not have an immediate effect. Figure 4 Provisional estimate of business as usual CO2-eq emissions projections for Auckland region 2001 to 2006.

Figure 4 illustrates business as usual GHG emissions projections as developed by Maunsell AECOM in 2008. It was estimated that by 2040 total GHG emissions for the Auckland region would be 11million tonnes above 1990 levels. It is noted that both 1990 and 2006 years have been used for comparative purposes: 1990 because this aligns with New Zealand’s Kyoto Protocol commitments and 2006 because this aligns with the most recent baseline data set developed. Initial business as usual emissions projections (based on a 2009 baseline) undertaken by URS in Stage four of the Carbon Now project is illustrated in Figure 5. This reaffirms that projected increases in long term GHG emissions are primarily driven by electricity and transport. Based on previous consumption figures natural gas and coal usage for nonelectricity production is shown to be decreasing, although this inference is based on a limited dataset (10 years). There is also a slight decrease in GHG emissions form iron and steel production. With respect to forestry sinks, a slight drop in forestry sinks is anticipated out to 2040, although it should be noted that the national data from which the analysis data was sourced indicated a large drop in forestry assets in the period 2007-2009. This skews the results and has the effect of putting a slight fall in the forecast CO2 equivalent sink volume (Forestry sinks are not included in Figure 5).



Figure 5 Updated business as usual projections from revised 2009 baseline data.

Detailed analysis undertaken, as part of the Carbon Now review as undertaken by URS has developed revised scenarios based on a revised baseline. This assessment was based on a deterministic model, that is, the use of a single number to represent an inferred growth rate. To provide a greater level of confidence in the projections we have recommend a probabilistic assessment be undertaken at some stage in the future that would better reflect the uncertainty (or randomness) in some of the input data. For example, population growth may be best expressed in three scenarios - high growth, business as usual and low growth. Each of these scenarios will give rise to differing GHG emissions. The results can then be expressed as a percentile i.e. 95% of the time an emission is estimated to be less than this value. ‘Monte Carlo simulation’ affords itself well to undertake this kind of work. Monte Carlo simulation is a computerised mathematical simulation technique that provides a range of possible outcomes and the probabilities they will occur for any choice of action, by building models of possible results by substituting a range of values for any factor that has inherent uncertainty. While there are multiple international guidance and conventions for measuring the GHG emissions and removals, the inherent points of flexibility results in limited consistency in the interpretation of international standards and therefore comparability across tiers and jurisdictions of local government. Currently, there is no widely available tool for estimating community-level inventories and tracking progress over time. This is a direct result of the demise of the CCP – NZ programme. It is envisaged that the next step is to develop trial the Carbon Now inventory tool across other areas of local government with a view to possible development for web based application nationally across local government. The development of a user friendly web based front end tool would provide consistent methodology and data sources, enabling all regions to include the same activities and use the same emissions factors to produce inventories. Further, a web based tool allows methodologies and emission factors to be updated centrally, reducing the time frame and cost of this exercise for all councils and maintaining comparability between inventories and between councils over time. Collaboration across council jurisdictions would thus become a great deal easier. A standardised, easily used tool would have the added benefits of: providing transparency and consistency in how local government corporate and community level inventories are developed; reducing the total workload across the country by removing the need for each council to develop its own inventory tool; assisting regional councils to build their inventories from the bottom up by aggregating their local councils’ inventories; and

4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 44 Carbon Now & Carbon Futures 10


assisting small, under resourced councils to contribute to the regional climate change response for least effort. Conclusion As a means of encouraging emissions reductions in local communities, a number of councils in New Zealand are already, and have for a number of years, been reporting their GHG emissions through CCP-NZ (an initiative aimed at empowering local councils to take responsibility for measuring and reducing community GHG emissions). This has been extremely important in encouraging councils to address their energy profile and better understand possibilities for energy efficiency and GHG emissions reduction. However, whilst it has helped to raise awareness within councils for the need to reduce emissions (and identify specific areas of the energy profile to target), the varied interpretation of the methodology (using a ‘top down’ approach) by different councils has meant that comparability is difficult. A need for greater consistency in the interpretation and reporting of GHG emissions, coupled with a need for greater comparability and compatibility between council’s emissions figures, has led ARC to seek a simpler approach to the accounting for emissions. The Carbon Now framework introduces a clear and concise approach for local government to measure emissions, to prepare reduction targets and to provide the opportunity to track reductions against the agreed targets. All councils within the Auckland region are signed up to this framework. Initial estimations indicate that the Auckland region’s GHG emissions for 2006 totalled 11.93 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. This was an increase of 1.79 million tonnes in the five years since 2001. The Auckland’s regional GHG emissions have risen by approximately 17.7% between 2001-2006 compared to a 26% rise in national GHG emissions since 1990. Without any further action, it is predicted that by 2040, regional GHG emissions will increase by 87.3% relative to 2001 levels (based on stage two initial estimations). The current national Kyoto commitment requires New Zealand to reduce its GHG emissions back to 1990 levels by 2012. If the Auckland region were to achieve this, we would need to reduce GHG emissions by approximately 40% (based on stage two initial estimations) by 2012.



References Bhatia P., and Ranganathan J., (2004). The Greenhouse Gas Protocol – A Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard, revised edition. Published by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development and the World Resources Institute. Global Reporting Institute’s Public Sector Agencies (2010). GRI Reporting in Government Agencies. Retrieved from http://www.globalreporting.org International Energy Agency. (2009). CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion. Paris, France. Hughes, J, Goldthorpe, S. and Perry, R.H., (2010). Carbon Futures: Reducing Emissions for the Auckland Region. Unpublished. International Standard ISO14064-1 Greenhouse Gases Part 1 (2006): Specification with guidance at the organisation level for quantification and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. ISO 2006. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2006). Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, Eggleston H.S., Buendia L., Miwa K., Ngara T. and Tanabe K. (eds). Published: IGES, Japan. International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (2008). International Local Government for Sustainability GHG Emissions Analysis Protocol. Ministry for the Environment (2008). Guidance for Voluntary, Corporate Greenhouse Gas Reporting – Data and methods for the 2006 calendar year. Ministry for the Environment (2008). Draft International Local Government GHG Emissions Analysis Protocol (2008). Guidance for Voluntary, Corporate Greenhouse Gas Reporting – Data and methods for the 2006 calendar year. Maunsell AECOM (2006) ARC Carbon Futures Stage 1; Statistics New Zealand. Internal report to Auckland Regional Council.



Maunsell AECOM (2008) Carbon Futures baseline data review. Client report for Auckland Regional Council, Auckland, New Zealand Ministry for the Environment (2005). Review of Climate Change Policies. Retrieved from http://www.mfe.govt.nz/ publications/climate/policy-review-05/index. html. Ministry for the Environment (2010). New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2008. Retrieved from http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/ climate/greenhouse-gasinventory-2009/ index.html. Ministry of Economic Development (2010). New Zealand Energy Data File: 2009 Calendar Year Edition. Retrieved from http://www.med.govt.nz/energy/edf. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2010). Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data. Retrieved from http://unfccc.int/.



GETTING ON TRACK FOR SUSTAINABILITY IN EDUCATION Observations from the Unitec Environmental Sustainability Program Clarke, C.1 Preston, L. 2, 4 Phillips, D.2,3 and L. Fourie2 1

Department of Civil Engineering and 2Unitec Environmental Sustainability Project Committee, Unitec New Zealand, PO Box 92015, Mt Albert, Auckland, New Zealand

3

Morphum Environmental Ltd, PO Box 99642, New Market, Auckland, New Zealand

4

Epsom Normal Primary School 41 The Drive Epsom, Auckland, New Zealand

New Zealand is facing the requirement to adapt to global forces such as population growth and climate change. Across the country plans are being made in order to respond to the changes and the challenges that they carry. The long term aim is based on leading a high quality of life while maintaining a healthy environment for future generations. Education for sustainable development strives to embed sustainability in everyday lives. Unitec New Zealand has embarked on implementation of a comprehensive Environmental Sustainability Strategy (ESS). They plan to act as advocates of practical sustainability across four key strategic areas within the institute – Teaching, Research, Advanced Practise and Campus (T.R.A.C.). “Teaching” focuses on the need to incorporate sustainability into the curriculum and use existing staff members and talent to offer a sustainability focus in every degree. “Research” is based on developing Unitec’s research ability relating to sustainable technologies from design to build with a transdisciplinary focus. “(Advanced Practice) Advocacy” aims to provide Leadership and make Unitec a centre of public information for community, staff member and student sustainability education. It also focuses on collaboration links with other best practice organisations locally, nationally and internationally. “Campus Management” intends to manage the Unitec campus to become a living example of sustainable best practice, in all aspects of the organisation’s function. This paper explores the journey that Unitec is taking towards becoming a sustainable tertiary education institute. 1. INTRODUCTION - WHY SUSTAINABILITY IN EDUCATION? Sustainability education is more than just building an understanding and awareness of global issues. It is about growing the values, knowledge and skills in order to think and act in ways that will support a sustainable environment and lifestyle. Sustainability education is aimed at creating future communities that value sustainable living, nurture the environment and recognise the interaction between social, cultural and economic aspects of sustainability. The need to normalise sustainable techniques and measures through education organisations is obvious. There is no shortage of issues, topics and learning opportunities in sustainability, they are all around us. Lifelong sustainable strategies, learning experiences, and planning ideas can be explored in sustainability education. We need to embed the tools for future effectiveness throughout our early educative life, from Primary School through to Tertiary Education.



This paper describes some of the history in sustainability education at Unitec Institute of Technology in Auckland, highlights issues for Tertiary sustainability education in New Zealand, and describes the Unitec Environmental Sustainability Strategy (ESS) being developed to improve sustainability across a tertiary education organisation. 2. BACKGROUND – UNITEC: SUSTAINABILITY IN EDUCATION 2.1. History Unitec is a Technical Institute with a main campus in Mt Albert, and satellite campuses in Waitakere and North Shore in Auckland. Recorded sustainability initiatives at an institute level at Unitec began with Tim Rimmer undertaking a waste audit for the campus in 1992, with the results utilised in an attempt to implement waste minimization systems on the campus. Later considerable work was undertaken by Jeff Seadon including waste minimisation, with success in establishing recycling stations on the campus (e.g. Seadon, 2005). Unfortunately these recycling stations were later removed by the Facilities Management. Many examples of operational measures have been implemented to improve resource efficiency on campus however these have not be specifically aligned under a sustainability programme. Teaching sustainability at Unitec included programmes in Environmental Engineering that aligned with sustainability (Tapp, et al., 2002). These programmes offered the BE (Env) and DipEnvTech. In 2002, a sustainability group was formed within the then School of Engineering, which evolved to an initiative by David Thom in 2004 to develop and embed a sustainability component throughout every paper in the BE (Env), based on the concept from the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE) that sustainability lies at the heart of civil engineers. A sustainability perspective was therefore embedded in lectures and also included in learning intentions, learning outcomes and examinations. Thom was also the founding member of USEF, “Unitec Educating for Sustainability Forum”. The forum was organised because like minds in the School for the Built Environment, Architecture, and Natural Sciences. A member of Unitec senior management, Dr J. Harman agreed on the need to foster progress in the teaching of sustainability at Unitec (Mamula-Stojnic and Panko, 2004; Napan and MamulaStojnic, 2005; Harman, 2006; Timmer, 2007). The Forum had monthly meetings and followed a programme for 2004 consisting of a quarterly newsletter, a series of seminars and workshops, and the preparation of a Unitec sustainability database. While complete traction throughout Unitec was not achieved, this assisted in setting the platform for future work by Logan Muller and Associate Professor Peter Mellalieu. Mellalieu gained senior leadership and executive support by conducting one of Unitec’s first comprehensive sustainability audits in 2007. 2.2.

Recent Movements

The Unitec Sustainability Community of Practice (COP) was activated in May 2009 and the push to a sustainable movement began. Clive Cornford and David Coltman documented some of the background to Unitec’s past around environmental sustainability and presented an action plan to the Leadership Team in October 2009. On the 24th November 2009 Unitec held a Hui organized by Logan Muller, where over 25 Unitec departments were represented to contribute collaboratively to moving Unitec forward on its Strategy for Sustainability. The promoters of the Hui were aiming at a properly funded and resourced audit of all sustainability actions and initiatives at Unitec. It served as the first step in the collective process and a chance for wide stakeholder input.



Peter Mellalieu was a keynote speaker at the Hui. He discussed “Unitec and Sustainability since 2005: How we got where we are”. Mellalieu argued “we cannot rely on business or government to adopt the requisite level of policy regulation for sustainable development. Only informed professionals and opinion leaders will change the values, and thereby their purchasing and voting decisions of citizens to care for the environment” (Mellalieu, 2008a, 2008b, 2009, 2010). He pushed for the leaders and teachers of Unitec to take a step beyond what is stated in the Tertiary Education Strategy. Following the Hui, in March 2010, Logan Muller, Leon Fourie, Irene Allen and the Sustainability Cluster developed Terms of Reference (ToR) for Unitec’s Sustainability Strategy (Allen et al., 2010). The purpose of the ToR was to provide direction for the necessary gathering of information, consultation, planning and implementation of a sustainability strategy for Unitec. 2.3.

National Context for Tertiary Education Sustainability

In 2007, the NZ Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (PCE) reported that “University students understanding of sustainable development has not dramatically changed since 2002”. Also “initiatives for sustainability have largely been ad hoc, isolated, and uncoordinated within and across universities”. The PCE report does outline some examples of progress and achievement within some Tertiary Education Organisations (TEO), stating: “While environment-specific courses are available, with some offering good opportunities for skills and knowledge in sustainability, learning about sustainability is not a core (or even a fringe) component in most mainstream courses”. A potential cause for this poor progress may be when campus sustainable development activities rely too much on ‘lone ranger’ champions, and fail to get adequate support from senior institutional leadership” (Williams, 2008). The Tertiary Education Strategy (TES, 2007-2012) highlights lack of investment in education for sustainability within TEO’s as an obvious constraint. The TES particularly acknowledges the importance of New Zealand tertiary education in assisting with developing sustainable use of natural resources (MoE, 2007). Several New Zealand Tertiary Education Organisations (TEO’s) have announced commitments to Education for Sustainable Development in their practice and campus operations. Otago Polytechnic (Birnie et al., 2008) and Waikato University are examples of successfully developing programmes. The Parlimentary Commission for the Environment reported in 2007, “Three universities in New Zealand offer teacher training in education for sustainability: Waikato University offers some pre-service training, and Canterbury and Massey Universities provide sustainability education programmes at a tertiary level. Unitec has identified that while good work is underway, there is certainly opportunity to improve both the sustainability of academic institutions and the delivery of sustainability education. 3. UNITEC ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY STRATEGY 3.1. Development Process Unitec NZ has embarked on implementation of a comprehensive Environmental Sustainability Strategy (ESS). They plan to act as advocates of practical sustainability across four key strategic areas within the institute – Teaching, Research, Advanced Practise and Campus (T.R.A.C.). The T.R.A.C. model reflects the work and advice form both the Hui and



the COP, now one body of nearly 100 staff at Unitec. A smaller Environmental Sustainability Project Committee led by Executive Dean: Leon Fourie encompassing a broad range of staff from various departments, including support services such as the library and importantly Facilities Management has since been formed to move the project forward. As part of the development of the consultation with staff it was felt necessary to involve independent environmental consultants. Not only would they help with the development and planning of the Environmental Sustainability Strategy (ESS) for Unitec, but also conduct an audit of the current sustainability activity. Morphum Environmental Ltd were engaged to assist Unitec in the development of an ESS in a collaborative fashion in accordance with the Terms of Reference (TOR), and integrated with the Unitec strategic practice areas. The audit of current Unitec practices identified existing and potential sustainability initiatives. Audit interviews covered members from each department, and included the research department, library and Unitec campus and facilities management in order to get a wide perspective of current initiatives and potential initiatives in four areas of Teaching, Research, Advocacy and Campus as illustrated in Figure 1. Previous Unitec Sustainability audit documentation was considered. Other measurements were also taken as part of the audit e.g. operational data for electricity, natural gas and water consumption (Mt Albert campus only) which has been collected 2005-2009 and analyzed. These findings were presented in workshops by Caleb Clarke from Morphum Environmental Ltd.

Figure 1: Current Sustainability Initiatives and Potential Initiatives identified from Audit Process (Source: Morphum Environmental, 2010).

A series of workshops and collaborations have resulted in the prioritization of potential initiatives and development of a Draft Environmental Sustainability Strategy produced at the time of writing. This is being progressed through Unitec Leadership approvals for implementation.

In order to maintain momentum and facilitate integration and ongoing collaboration the ESS is being developed and presented in a comprehensive ecoPortal TM software system (Figure 2). The model includes navigational wheels that outline current targets and objectives in each of the 4 key areas in line with ISO 1400 reporting frameworks. A project management and scheduling module allows monitoring of targets and measurements integrated with email communication.



Figure 2: Preliminary Unitec Ecoportal Framework (Source: Morphum Environmental Ltd) 3.2.

The TRAC Model - Unitecs Environmental Sustainability Strategy

The T.R.A.C. model has provided the guiding principles for the development of the Environmental Sustainability Strategy (ESS) at Unitec. The detailed descriptions are listed below and initial results of the audits (Morphum Environmental Ltd, 2010) are discussed with work still progressing on the final outcomes of the project: • • •

•

Teaching “Teaching” focuses on the need to incorporate sustainability into the curriculum and use existing staff members and talent to offer a sustainability focus in every degree. Research “Research” is based on developing Unitec’s research ability relating to sustainable technologies from design to build with a transdisciplinary focus. Advanced Practice “Advocacy” aims to provide leadership and develop Unitec as a centre of public information for community, staff member and student sustainability education. It also focuses on collaboration links with other best practice organisations locally, nationally and internationally. Campus Management intends to manage the Unitec campus to become a living example of sustainable best practice, in all aspects of the organisation’s function.



3.2.1.

Teaching – “Greening Unitecs Curriculum”

The audit findings for “Teaching” recommended sustainable learning to be based on real information from measurement frameworks in representative New Zealand contexts, and practical sustainability examples. Unitec aims for every student to have exposure to these techniques with a “Trans Disciplinary Team Learning” focus on integration of environmental sustainability across Unitec, including cross discipline exercises. Priority Actions for teaching sustainability at Unitec have been identified as follows: • Development of a working group to guide the development of Unitec’s sustainability curriculum. • Allocation of personnel resource to develop this “living curriculum”, potentially in the form of a transdisciplinary 'virtual' department to provide inter-departmental papers. • Development of an ES subject guide with an information librarian resource allocation. • Include sustainability objectives in course descriptors and move to including ES modules on core papers for all courses. • Development of post graduate sustainability programmes. • Support of other kinds of learning including seminars, short courses, professional courses, conferences 3.2.2.

Research – “Plugging into Eco-innovation”

“Research” audit findings expressed the need to develop an Environmental Sustainability Research Theme that frames relevant contexts, and targets the gaps where industry and society will receive the greatest benefit. Specific interest in a grant programme is expressed, where support for research based on practical solutions for sustainability is available. Unitec also aims to build an electronic e’library which will manage new found research in sustainability. Research can provide a beacon for the challenge of sustainability; framing real world problems, developing and testing solutions and understanding how the solutions can be used in the human hand. The Research area would target the gaps where industry and society will receive the greatest benefit, focusing research at Unitec, which has always been of an applied nature, on innovative solutions towards creating a sustainable society and a green economy. The Unitec ES research theme will be developed with the following features: • Focus on the relationship of Unitec, the community, regional, national and global issues to identify gaps and opportunities for research at many levels. Aligning research with real world problems to leverage Unitec’s practical stance and develop project driven research that has local value, is useful, and is practical as a point of difference. • Utilise on-campus opportunities such as measurement systems developed as part of Unitec’s Campus metabolism project to provide real world data to integrate with research programs. • Look within the Unitec community to investigate individual and team attitudinal approaches to sustainability, including cross-discipline integration opportunities. • Focus on attracting good teaching staff who are at the forefront of sustainability research, to develop teaching led research that can promote active learning.



•

Adopt an existing research topic that has suitable transdisciplinary opportunities as a pilot and drive this forward under the ES Research Theme banner. 3.2.3.

Advocacy - “Unitec as a microcosm of a super-eco-city”

“Advocacy” includes advanced practise, which is Unitec’s applied research, and is at the intersection of research, teaching and industry. For Unitec this relies on a connected organisation exercising its opportunities for leadership and influence. Unitec is well poised to contribute to the discussion on ‘Auckland’s Growing City’ by providing a microcosm ‘laboratory’ across all strands of the TRAC model. Advanced practise sustainability advocacy at Unitec will be implemented with an internal then external focus. Internal Advocacy will entail establishing processes for internal collaboration and cohesion, and the development and proving of the internal sustainability story. External Advocacy is the promoting and marketing of this story into the wider sustainability world. For example Unitec aims to engage with community, build awareness of the two natural springs on campus, and continue with the riparian planting to improve water quality though the Wairaka Stream which discharges into Oakley Creek. Internal Advocacy • An institutional level commitment to the Environmental Sustainability Strategy (ESS) by the Unitec leadership provides clear mandate. • The ESS Project committee will continue to operate in a way that guides and manages environmental sustainability at Unitec, with working groups to lead initiatives. • An Environmental Management System (EMS) approach will operate under the Health Safety and Environment Manager to coordinate and lead change within Unitec. This will need to integrate with trans-disciplinary developments of the Teaching and Research themes in the ESS, and facilitate openness, innovation and communication of the internal Unitec sustainability story. • Building and department scale implementation of campus metabolism understandings and sustainability initiatives will focus on responsibilities and motivations for behavioural changes. External Advocacy • Promotion of Unitec’s ES to students and the wider community through external networking, community outreach projects, and potential green seminars and conferences. • Undertake applied research projects that leverage internal learning for sustainable city innovations and outcomes. • Developing internal information and knowledge is necessary to provide subject material for external advocacy. 3.2.4.

Campus Operation – “Unitec as a biophysical entity”

“Campus Operation” is initially focussed on two areas of measurement and planning. Measurement involves the improved monitoring of energy, water and waste. Live metering and rapid feedback loops are a campus ‘measurement’ aim, which can provide data for business cases to improve resource efficiency, as well as drive behavioural change and provide information for research and teaching. Campus planning focuses on the intent to



develop the campus as a green learning classroom in a way that facilitates learning and advocates sustainability. This can permeate the campus planning from stucture plan to precinct plans and building construction and refurbishment projects. Some other objectives for campus management are: • •

Campus Waste: Development of inhouse recycling process including triple bin infrastructure. Increased education to staff/students and removal of individual bins by the end of 2010. Vehicles: Limit the number of cars on site. Offer incentives.for carpooling and alternatives such as videoconferencing, provision of bikesheds and bicycles on campus.

The campus infrastructure of Unitec includes three physical campuses in addition to a virtual campus extending across the community of 23,000 students, 1,100 staff and their spheres of influence. A measured and clearly understood sustainable campus metabolism will lead the development of Unitec as a green learning classroom, with best practice to flow into structure and precinct plans that facilitate learning and operational sustainability. This will include metabolism measurement and eco-campus planning elements as follows. Metabolism Measurement • Development of a 'green and smart campus'. Improved monitoring of energy, water and waste, including live metering and rapid feedback loops to facilitate interpretation and infrastructure and behaviour improvements. The scope will include instantaneous web and building displays of resource use figures. • Development of feasibility assessment processes based on high resolution measurement including carbon equivalents, for better true-cost life cycle analysis of initiatives such as Building Management System retrofits. Many other ideas and opportunities have been identified and these can also be assessed for feasibility and prioritised for implementation. • Focus on added value impact in providing examples to support valid Teaching, Research and Advocacy initiatives. Campus Planning • Review of structure planning resourced through the Architecture department including campus design studio to align with sustainable design principles. • Create sustainable campus design guidelines, incorporating life cycle business case processes integrated with metabolism measurement. • Commence flagship green building project within Building 48 refurbishment or trade schools precinct redevelopment. • Maintain eco-campus focus including sustainable super city parallels, maximising signage, education and community integration opportunities.



4. CONCLUSION Unitec NZ is an example of an education organization with a history of initiative in sustainability education and sustainability of education provision. Like many tertiary education organizations in New Zealand the has been mixed results in terms of continuity and effectiveness. Unitec is embarking on a comprehensive program to embed sustainability in its activities. Adoption of a holistic model allows simultaneous focus across all areas of Unitecs potential influence, the Teaching, Research, Advocacy and Campus Operation contained in the TRAC model. The Unitec ESS is progressing with wide reaching audits on the campus of staff and current Unitec practices as well as an individual interview process and analysis of existing data through to collaborative workshops including a Hui, This inclusive process has shown that there are many areas where Unitec can implement positive change to the way it is currently working through potential sustainability initiatives. These ideas are currently being assessed and presented through tools such as an Ecoportal, with the final Environmental Sustainability Strategy to be developed throughout 2010. This holistic approach not only places importance on managing the environmental footprint of the organisation, which is important to provide positive examples of sustainability and normalise these for students, but more importantly focuses on opportunities to change behaviours and to feed into greater stimulus towards sustainable practise within staff students and ultimately professional practise. The challenge which Unitec Senior Management have embraced is to implement an Environmental Sustainability Strategy, to become a better tertiary education business and ultimately influence society. REFERENCES Allen, I. De W Fourie, L. and Muller, L. 2010 Environmental Sustainability Strategy: Terms of Reference. March 2010. Unitec Institute of Technology. Auckland Regional Council,1999-2009 Education for sustainability, accessed 9/8/2010,http://www.arc.govt.nz/council/sustainability-education/environmentaleducation_home.cfm Auckland Regional Council, Auckland Regional Growth Forum, 2007, Auckland Sustainability Framework. An Agenda for the Future, accessed 9/8/2010, http://www.arc.govt.nz/albany/fms/main/Documents/Auckland/Sustainability/Auckland %20Sustainability%20Framework.pdf Auckland Regional Council, Regional Susutainable Development Forum, 2008, Auckland Sustainability Framework Tool Kit. accessed 9/8/2010 http://www.aucklandoneplan.org.nz/subsites/fms/OnePlan/Supporting%20Documents/A SF/ASF%20Toolkit.pdf Birnie C, Ellwood K, Henry S, Mann S, Pawlowski I, 2008 A Simple Pledge- Towards Sustainable Practice, Otago Polytechnic.



Enviroschools accessed 8/8/2010, http://www.enviroschools.org.nz/ our organisation/ aboutenviroschools/enviroschools-statsHarman, J., Mamula-Stojnic, L., & Ennis, I. 2006 Education for sustainability: Reflections on the efficacy of integrative studies courses in an undergraduate degree. International Journal of Environmental, Cultural, Economic and Social Sustainability, 2. Mellalieu, P. J. 2008 Investing in education for sustainability: An exploratory strategic audit of a tertiary educational organisation, Unitec Business School Working Paper Series, New Zealand Centre for Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Auckland: Unitec Institute of Technology, February, 2008. Mellalieu, P. J.2008 Investing in education for eco-sustainability: A ‘fast follower’strategic posture for Unitec Institute of Technology, Unitec Business School Working Paper Series, New Zealand Centre for Innovation & Entrepreneurship, Auckland: Unitec Institute of Technology. (2008). Paper available online at:http://web.mac.com/petermellalieu/UBSpublications Mellalieu, P. 2009 Shifting frontiers, new priorities, creating pathways: elevating the case for tertiary education for sustainable development in New Zealand. Wellington, New Zealand: Bright*Star Conferences & Training Ltd. Mellalieu, P. J. 2010 Unitec’s Environmental Sustainability Strategy. Introducing the Unit Eco Prism. Presented to the Unitec Sustainability Hui. 2009. Morphum Environmental Ltd, 2010 Current Sustainability Initiatives and Potential Initiatives. Unpublished Technical Report. Napan, K., & Mamula-Stojnic, L. 2005 A process that empowers-self and peer assessment as a component of education for sustainability. In P. Kandlbinder (Ed.), Making a difference: 2005 Evaluations and Assessment Conference refereed papers (pp. 97-106). Sydney: University of Technology Sydney. Paper presented at the Fourth Annual Evaluations and Assessment Conference 'Making a difference', 30 November-1 December, Sydney. New Zealand Association for Environmental Education, Resources and Links, accessed 20/9/2010http://www.nzaee.org.nz/ New Zealand Ministry of Education (MoE), (2007). Tertiary education strategy 2007-12 Incorporating statement of tertiary education priorities 2008-10, (TES) Wellington: Office of the Minister for Tertiary Education, ISBN 0-478-13613-7. Mamula-Stojnic, L., & Panko, M.2004 Sustainability: The education driver. Paper presented at the International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science, 7-9 July, Auckland, New Zealand. Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment.2008 Annual Review for the Year Ended 30th June 2008. Government Printers, Wellington, NZ.



Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment.2007 See Change: Learning and education for sustainability: Outcome evaluation. Government Printers, Wellington, NZ. Phillips, D. and Birchmore, R. 2009 Sustainability in the Department of Civil Engineering. Poster Paper at the Teaching and Research Symposium, Unitec 2009. Seadon, J. K. 2005 From waste to sustainable waste management (keynote address). Paper presented at the New Zealand Institute of Food Science and Technology - Dairy Institute Association of New Zealand Conference, 28-30 June, Christchurch. Tapp, B., Mamula-Stojnic, L., Ennis, I., & Haines, L. 2002 Education for sustainability - a systems approach. Paper presented at the New Zealand Association for Environmental Education Conference, 17-19 January, Hamilton. Timmer, T. J. 2007 Strong sustainability, its holistic roots and the need to educate for reconnection. The International Journal of Environment. Morphum Environmental, 2010, Unitec Environmental Sustainability Strategy (ESS) Ecoportal accessed 30/8/2010, http://www.unitec.ecoportal.co.nz/node/1 Williams, P. M, 2008, University leadership for sustainability: An active dendritic framework for enabling connection and collaboration. Victoria University of Wellington, accessed 1/8/2010, http://www.futuresteps.co.nz/



Design for Sustainability: Moving from Incremental towards Radical Design Approaches Marcel Crul, Ph.D., M.Sc.1 Jan Carel Diehl, Ph.D., M.Sc. Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Industrial Design Engineering. Landbergstraat 15 2628 CE Delft, The Netherlands. Email: [email protected] ‘Transitions to Sustainability’, NZSSES conference 2010, Auckland New Zealand

Abstract The concept of Design for Sustainability (D4S) goes beyond how to make a ‘green’ product and strives to meet consumer needs through sustainability-oriented interventions in a systematic and systemic way. It covers strategies ranging from incremental to radical innovation and from a focus on the individual product to an integral systems view. Practical approaches for industry, showing effective solutions and direct sustainability benefits are at the heart of the D4S approach. It can be used in a collaborative process with several partners, either within a company, or in a project where a broader partnership of both intermediates and companies are involved. The key inside-the-box, incremental innovation strategy is D4S Redesign. This strategy is aimed at sustainability-driven, stepwise improvement of an existing product. A closely connected approach, D4S Benchmarking, advocates learning from competitors’ efforts and experiences to improve a company’s own products, and is especially suitable for companies that develop products by imitating existing products. The incremental strategies are very relevant and useful, but out-of-the box or radical sustainable product innovation strategies are necessary to achieve significant sustainability gains. D4S New product development involves a higher level of technical, market and organizational uncertainty then redesign, at the same time a higher sustainability gain can be reached. New product development is strongly connected with system innovation, which is typically accompanied with radical changes in technologies, regulations, user practices, markets, culture, infrastructure and supply networks. Another radical approach is the development of D4S Product-Service Systems (PSS). This strategy stems from the fact that services and products are becoming more and more intertwined. If properly designed, PSS can be much more sustainable then purely productbased solutions. This paper describes the theoretical and methodological development of the D4S concept, and presents several industrial cases. 1.

Introduction

It is increasingly apparent that current patterns of consumption and production are unsustainable, as evidenced in the ever increasing rate of adverse environmental and social impacts. The accelerating processes of globalization and trade liberalization, supported by 1

Corresponding author

1 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010

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advances in information technologies, have fundamentally changed the landscape of the private sector in both developed and developing economies, providing new opportunities to improve sustainability. Companies are improving the efficiency of current production and the design of new products and services. These profit-driven strategies go by many names, such as Ecodesign, sustainable product design and more recently, Design for Sustainability (D4S). In the 1990s, concepts such as Ecodesign and green product design were introduced as strategies companies could employ to reduce the environmental impacts associated with their production processes (Brezet and van Hemel 1997). To keep pace with the rapidly changing industrial setting, many environmental movements have expanded their scope to include social and economic concerns. These environmental, social, and economic priorities are the three pillars to ‘sustainability.’ Sustainability can be defined as “the possibility that humans and other life will flourish on the Earth forever” (Ehrenfeld 2008). Ecodesign has evolved to include both the social and profit elements of production and is now referred to as sustainable product design or ‘Design for Sustainability’ (D4S). D4S goes beyond how to make a ‘green’ product and embraces how to meet consumer needs in a more sustainable way. Companies incorporating D4S in their long-term product innovation strategies strive to alleviate the negative environmental, social, and economic impacts in the product’s supply chain and throughout its life-cycle. The D4S concept now embraces both incremental (redesign) and radical (new products, product-service systems) product innovation to achieve the necessary sustainability gains.D4S essentially integrates these approaches and aims to drastically improve the efficiency and social qualities of production processes by developing new products, services, and systems alongside on-going continuous improvement of products. 2.

The need for radical design approaches

Sustainability requires taking the needs of future generations into account, which means future environmental and social concerns need to be addressed. Global environmental pressures are directly related to the size of the population which helps define consumption levels, and the materials and energy required to produce each ‘unit’ of consumption. It has been estimated that environmental pressures should be reduced by about half. Taking into account the current growth rate of developing economies, the efficiency of products and processes needs to be improved by a factor of 4. Future generations could be living in a world with a population of 9 billion, and much higher consumption levels, which would require materials and energy improvements by a factor of 10 to 20. This type of ‘factor thinking’ or ‘factor X thinking’ (von Weizsäcker et al., 1997; Factor 10 Club, 1997; NIDO/KSI, 2003) shows the magnitude of the task at hand, and the critical need to improve production processes, products, and systems. More recently, this notion of decoupling economic growth and use of resources by factor efficiency improvements has been fundamentally criticized as being unrealistic. Jackson (2009) gives the example that with sustained economic growth, carbon intensity in 2050 should be a factor 130 lower than today, a truly daunting factor of improvement to be achieved. The need for a radical change of society towards sustainability, challenging the necessity of economic growth as the basis for prosperity, is expressed in several influential publications (Ehrenfeld 2008, Jackson 2009). A new kind of prosperity is proposed, based on human flourishing in far less materialistic ways. As John Ehrenfeld (2008) notes in Sustainability by Design, we still have the opportunity to change our unsustainable habits, but we can no longer afford to take our current consumption patterns for granted. A consumer 2 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010

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demanding cleanly-produced products might feel good about his or her lifestyle choice, but it will take more than just consuming such products to initiate a change – it will require a decrease in consumption as well in order to realize any gains. Short-term incremental redesign of existing products, also called ‘inside-the-box’ innovation, can typically lead to improvements up to a factor 5. To achieve long-term factors of 10, 20 or higher, or changes towards radical shifts in the whole of society, radical product innovation, or outside-the-box innovation, is necessary. This includes developing completely new products, improving products as well as the services connected to them, and developing entirely new functional systems of products and services. Before going into the details of these different D4S approaches, a short description of the different types of innovation is given. 2.1

Incremental and radical innovation

Product innovation is essential for industry’s competitive position as well as for a country’s economic growth. Companies operate in a rapidly changing world in which customer needs and wants are not fixed and industry faces increasing competition due to open markets and globalisation. Companies that effectively integrate innovation into their product development process can gain a significant competitive advantage. Innovation is a broad concept that is used in many different contexts. As a result, there are many definitions of innovation. One useful definition is: “the commercial or industrial application of something new– a new product, process or method of production; a new market or source of supply; a new form of commercial, business, or financial organisation” (Schumpeter, 1934). Baregheh et al. (2009) within an organizational context, define innovation as: "the multi-stage process whereby organizations transform ideas into new/improved products, service or processes, in order to advance, compete and differentiate themselves successfully in their marketplace." Innovation can be categorized in many ways. OECD (2005) discerns ‘new to the firm’, ‘new to the market’ and ‘new to the world’ types of innovation, and connected to this ‘radical or disruptive’ innovation. Miller and Morris (1999) have developed a conceptual division of continuous or incremental and discontinuous or radical innovation. Abernathy and Utterback (1978) and Utterback (1994) emphasize the importance of radical innovation and discern between incremental, modular, discontinuous and fundamental innovation. Based on these different typologies, we divide innovation into three levels: incremental, radical, and fundamental. Each category is progressively more significant and far-reaching. Incremental innovation entails step-by-step improvements of existing products and tends to strengthen market positions of established companies in the industry. This includes benchmarking approaches in which products of competitors are copied and/or improved. Radical innovation drastically changes existing products or processes. The risks and investments required for radical innovation are usually considerably greater than those needed for incremental innovation but offer more opportunity for new entrants to the market. Fundamental innovation depends on new scientific knowledge and opens up new industries, causing a paradigm shift. In the early stage of fundamental innovation, the contributions of science and technology are important. Fundamental innovation often takes place only in large multinational companies, company clusters or national and international research programmes because of the large human and capital investment needed. The majority of companies engage in incremental or radical innovation efforts. 3 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010

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2.2

Inside-the-box: Incremental innovation

Incremental innovation is sometimes referred to as continuous improvement, and the business attitude associated with it is ‘inside-the-box’ thinking. A simple product may be improved (in terms of better performance or lower costs) through the use of higher performance components or materials. A complex product that consists of integrated technical subsystems can be improved by partial changes to one level of a sub-system. Incremental innovations do not involve major investments or risks. User experience and feedback is important and may dominate as a source for innovation ideas. As an example, customer preferences can be identified and added as features to the existing product. Incremental innovation and design improvements are known as the ‘bread and butter’ of product innovation for many firms. Many firms do not even attempt to explore radical innovation for a variety of reasons having to do with their size and resources, the nature of the industry, the level of research and development required, or the amount of risk involved. Even firms that successfully introduce radical innovation may not do so very often. Incremental innovation projects, due to the low-level of involved risk usually follow a structured and predictable process. 2.3

Out-of-the-box: Radical innovation

Radical innovation involves the development of new key design elements such as change in a product component combined with a new architecture for linking components. The result is a distinctively new product, product-service, or product system that is markedly different from the company’s existing product line. A high level of uncertainty is associated with radical innovation projects, especially at early stages. Technical, market, organisational, and resource issues all need to be addressed. Two primary types of radical innovation are: -

New-to-the-Market: Novel substitutes, based upon new products to society;

-

Breakthrough: Significantly changes the existing industry or creates a new business.

Ansoff (1968) included these two types in the ‘out-of-the-box’ approach. It means that the idea is based upon (1) a new technology or product; or (2) it is new to the market; or (3) both. Product innovations based on a new technology or product and new customers have the highest risks not to be adopted in the market. In many cases, established companies are not able to create new-to-the-market or breakthrough solutions, because they would potentially jeopardise the existing business model and/or industrial infrastructure itself. Therefore, radical product innovation usually requires an ‘outside-the-box’ approach. Outside-the-box innovation aims to create an approach that goes beyond existing business models and links with other companies to create a new venture. The risks involved are significantly higher and the time horizon also tends to be much longer. 3.

Incremental and radical D4S approaches

3.1

A systematic design approach

A company that wants to innovate its products or services needs to know what to do and how to do it. A basic systematic approach for this has been developed by Roozenburg and Eekels (1995) and consists of four basic steps (see figure 1): Formulating goals and defining strategies for product development based on market perceptions; generating and selecting 4 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010

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ideas for the new or improved product; developing these ideas into the blueprint of the new product; and transforming the plans into reality including production, distribution, sales, use and end-of-life of the product. Of course an actual product innovation process will often be more chaotic, iterative and less linear than described here, nevertheless the fundamental steps can usually be recognised and are necessary for successful innovation. Policy (Goals, Strategies)

Idea Finding

Strict development

Realisation

Figure 1: Basic steps for Product Innovation (Roozenburg and Eekels 1995) In the next part of this paper, approaches are presented for both incremental and more radical product innovation. Although the different types of sustainable product innovation (redesign, new product development and product-service systems) all have their own specific requirements and issues, the basic four steps shown in figure 1 can be recognized in all of them, thus connecting them into one ‘family’ of systematic product innovation approaches. In figure 2 the detailed steps of three main design approaches redesign, new product development and product-service-systems are depicted, clearly showing the basic four steps in each of them (Crul et al. 2009).

Figure 2: The three parallel D4S approaches redesign, new product development and PSS 5 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010

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3.2

D4S Redesign approach

D4S Redesign, as the name implies, aims at redesigning an existing product made by a company (or by a competitor) from a sustainability point of view. Redesign is an incremental, or inside-the-box, type of product innovation and typically involves smaller risks and investments. It follows a structured and predictable process and for many companies is economically and commercially as important as more radical approaches. Because the focus of D4S Redesign is an existing product, the market and manufacturing conditions specific to the product are already known. Its improvement potential can be determined from easily accessed information – such as feedback from the sales department, user experiences and testing and market investigations. In addition, the existing production facilities are usually suitable for manufacturing the redesigned product and hence, investment costs would likely remain within reasonable boundaries. The risks connected with the redesign effort are lower compared to more radical D4S innovation approaches that are described below. The D4S Redesign approach can be organized in 10 consecutive steps, as illustrated on the left side in the figure 2. These steps can be grouped according to the 4 basic steps for product innovation (goals & strategies, idea finding, strict development and realization). In each of the steps specific tools and approaches related to the sustainability of the product are integrated into the process. Examples of such tools are the D4S impact assessment matrix, and the use of systematic D4S strategies in steps 6 and 7, as well as rules of thumb for improvement options. The finished, redesigned product should be compared against the initial product to consider and estimate the sustainability advantages of the new product versus the original; after the product is launched, the company must do follow-up to evaluate overall sustainability, which will spawn new implementation ideas for future products. A closely connected approach, D4S Benchmarking, advocates learning from competitors’ efforts and experiences to improve a company’s own products, and is especially suitable for companies that develop products by imitating existing products. The methodology for benchmarking is closely connected to redesign. Case Study D4S Redesign: Truong Thanh Furniture Corporation (TTFC) in Vietnam Truong Thanh is a leading Vietnamese company in wood product manufacturing and exporting. It is constituted of eight factories employing a total of 9,000 employees. The company joined the CP4BP project in Vietnam on D4S, executed by the Vietnamese Cleaner Production Centre in cooperation with TU Delft. 97% of their products are exported. TTFC has a total of 23 designers which design 80% of their products in house and have a sales staff of 30 people. The company has its own research and training unit and produces 40% indoor furniture, 50% outdoor garden furniture, and 10% flooring. The Venice Folding Barbeque (BBQ) bar was selected for D4S demonstration. Market research showed that in many of the countries where this product was being exported to, consumers enjoyed spending time outdoor organizing various social events which combine outdoor entertainment with dining. The Product Innovation Team together with the D4S experts decided to redesign the Venice Folding Bar into a convenient and fully utilized bar and kitchen stand. This product was subject to the following improvements (figure 3): o o o o

40% of this product is now made from leftover wood from other production processes; Use of wood in the product has been reduced; All wood used has Forest Stewardship Council Certificate; The BBQ functions have been increased and accessories added to increase the usability and therefore the value of the product; 6


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o o

the size of detailed parts was reduced The new bar is foldable for easy transport and storage.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Figure 3. BBQ bar before project BBQ bar after project implementation ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3.3

D4S New Product Development

The D4S new product development approach applies “out-of-the-box”, or radical, innovation strategies, which can lead to more sustainable impact while providing the breakthroughs necessary to ensure an company’s continued competitiveness. New product development involves a higher level of technical, market, and organizational uncertainty than redesign but can be an inventive and iterative process where new ideas on how to meet needs are converted to products and services. Eco-friendly materials, sustainable development practices, and innovative information and communication technology are all concepts that can help inspire new product design. As consumer needs and expectations evolve, new products and services offer opportunities to enhance product portfolio sustainability including addressing increasingly important social concerns. The stages and processes involved with new product design can be viewed as four-fold: policy formulation, idea generation, product development and realization (see middle part of figure 2). Policy formulation addresses the company’s goals and strategies; idea generation allows the company to brainstorm and develop ideas for new products, taking into account the ability to harness developing technologies, materials and consumer needs; product development involves debating and testing concepts against the decisions in the idea finding phase. The key challenge with respect to new product design is market demand. Without a consumer need, even the most sustainable product will fail. Finally, realization takes place in a parallel development of production, marketing planning, planning of distribution, sales and the later phases of use and end-of-life. In contrast to redesign, no clear rules-of-thumb can be defined for new product development, hence the more open and innovative ‘idea finding’ phase is included in the approach. Case study D4S New Product Design: Kamworks, Cambodia Kamworks is a solar company in Cambodia. Cambodia receives on average five solar hours a day, so Kamworks saw the country’s solar capacity as an opportunity for local production of solar lighting products that fit the purchasing power of rural households. After an initial analysis and development of a solar lantern, Kamworks contacted TU Delft to work on a series of projects that covered the total design phase of a mobile lighting product from market analysis to final prototype.


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Many people in Cambodia use kerosene fuel lamps as a mobile light for purposes in- and outside the house. The light is not very bright, the lamp cannot be used in windy or rainy conditions, and fuel costs are high. For the most recent Kamworks lighting project, the goal was to provide a sustainable lighting solution for low-income rural households, the vast majority of which do not have access to the public electricity grid. The Delft design team came up with several recommendations, including the need for a durable, shock-proof lamp that was portable and could completely replace the traditional kerosene one. On the basis of this, a series of possible new designs for lamps was developed, and the “MoonLight” was chosen as the final prototype. The design is intuitive and easy to use. The final design has a triangular shape and includes a cord that is attached at the three corner points (Figure 4). It mainly consists of two vacuumformed outer shells and two also vacuum-formed blisters that hold the electronics together and buffer them at the same time for possible shocks. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Figure 4. The Kamworks prototype “MoonLight.” Exploded view, 3D rendering and in practice ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The MoonLight can be hung from wall or ceiling, carried by hand or hung around the neck, and has six wide-angle LEDs, which give equivalent light output of about four kerosene lamps. It comes with a solar panel for easy charging (Diehl and Kuipers 2008). The product’s ease of use and simple design gives Kamworks high hopes that the MoonLight will be revolutionary in rural Cambodia. The product had its market introduction in 2010. 3.4

D4S Product-service systems (PSS)

PSS illustrate the movement towards more radical forms of D4S because they use different ways of addressing at the design stage what a customer really needs and the way a product is designed, produced, used and discarded. PSS can be an effective function-based strategy that concentrates on "satisfaction" as a product value instead of private ownership of physical products, a traditional standard of wellbeing that exists in many industrialized contexts. Sustainable innovation and design is not necessarily about new technologies, but about rethinking how to meet everyone’s needs of sustaining growth without costly environmental and social impacts. The concept of PSS proposes that companies move from merely selling products (or services) to designing and providing a system of products and services (and related infrastructure) which are jointly capable of fulfilling client needs or demands more efficiently and with


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higher value for both companies and customers than purely product based solutions (Tukker and Tischner, 2006). Increasingly, economic value lies less in the product itself than in other parts of the productsystem that can be called product-related services. Current ink-jet printers, for example, are sold at a discounted price because of the future income to the manufacturer that will come from the sales of ink cartridges. PSS, as a strategy for innovation, can be thought of as widening the focus for design and development to coordinate – and re-configure – a set of products and services for a new business system to meet customer needs in a more economical and environmentally efficient way. Before trying to restructure a whole organisation or found a new company or organisation with a new business idea, it makes a lot of sense to run through a pilot project. The pilot project will assist the company in the following five phases (Tischner, Ryan et al. 2009) (see right hand side of figure 2): 1. Exploring opportunities, identification and analysis of the existing reference system, 2. PSS idea generation and selecting the most promising concepts 3. Detailing selected PSS concepts 4. Evaluation of detailed PSS concept(s) and testing 5. Planning implementation. The actual implementation, management and control of success will be done after the pilot project if the companies decide to realize the new solution. This is very company, consortium and solution specific. The five phases correlate with the four basic steps for product innovation whereby the last two PSS phases (evaluation and planning of implementation) can be seen as detailing of the fourth product innovation step ‘realisation’. Not all shifts to PSS result in environmental benefits and/or economic or social advantages. A PSS must be specifically designed, developed and delivered, to be sustainable. For example, schemes where products are borrowed and returned incur transportation costs (and the resultant use of fuel, and emissions). In some instances, the total fuel cost and environmental impact may make the system less sustainable than a product sales concept. Furthermore, even when well-designed, some PSS concepts could generate unwanted side effects, usually referred to as “rebound effects”, i.e. counterproductive effects that “eat up” the intended positive sustainability effects. For example, outsourcing, rather than ownership of products, could lead to careless (less environmentally responsible) behaviour, e.g. the benefits of a small and more fuel- therefore cost-efficient car can lead to more driven kilometres, simply because it is convenient and cheaper even in a car sharing system. Nevertheless, PSS development certainly presents a potential for generating win-win solutions, which promote economic, environmental and social benefits. They have the potential to provide the necessary, if not sufficient, conditions to enable communities to leapfrog to less resource intensive (more dematerialised) systems of social and economic benefits. Case study D4S Product Service System: Textile Flooring Diddi & Gori S.p.A. is an Italian company specialised in producing manufactures for shoe industry and textile flooring. The production of synthetic fibres and chemical products implies oil refining with obvious consequences for the environment. For this reason, Diddi & Gori’s goal is to create manufactures without chemical products or completely recyclable, involving a lower use of raw materials.


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Digodream is the product-service offered by Diddi & Gori. It consists of textile flooring that can be used during trade fairs and exhibitions, made of waste and completely recyclable, since it returns as the original fibre. The novelty of Digodream is that it is sold as an entire service, from the supply and the installation to the removal. It has become a whole system of services given to the client, who is no longer owner of the product, but buys its utility. Hence, the new concept of product is clearly moved from the traditional one to the idea of mutually dependent products and services that focus on the utility. Users do not demand the products or services, per se, but what these products and services enable them to achieve. In this perspective, the client obtains the needed utility and pays for product use. Prior to this, similar products were bought, used for a short period of time and then disposed. Digodream, after being used, returns to the producer, who recovers it to make fibres again. 4.

Concluding remarks

In this paper, the options were discussed that a company or design office has to improve a product from a D4S point of view, starting from today’s products. However, to achieve a long-term balance between economic, ecological and social-cultural dimensions in sustainable development at a global level, more radical approaches such as new product development or PSS are needed. A sustainable planet needs sustainable product innovation, including break-throughs and leapfrogging. In terms of eco-efficiency alone, not only factor 2-4 improvements that can be achieved with D4S redesign are needed but improvements of a factor 10-20 (‘Factor X’), implying the same function fulfilment of product-systems but now using 5% of today’s resources, implying almost zero waste and emissions over the life-cycle. Practical approaches have been shown on redesign, new products and on Product Service Systems (PSS). Successful sustainable PSS are designed in such a way that the dematerialized product-service combination is adopted for its value by the end-user and profitable for the other actors in the chain. D4S development of specific new, sustainable products that create superior overall sustainable systems is the ultimate challenge for every designer. For every actor in the field this is a personal or company/organization choice. There are different options to do so. One can buy –the best designed- existing products, adapt or redesign them yourself or one can go for radical new artefacts. The ambition to invent and innovate systems by radical new products is not the easiest option to choose. Radical product innovation as such is already a difficult and –by natureunpredictable process, so taking extra D4S demands on the sustainability aspects on board makes the process of product innovation even more complicated. Just making production more sustainable does not guarantee environmental benefits. For example, a large increase in production efficiency coupled with a similar increase in overall production would mean no absolute environmental gain. If complemented with more sustainable personal lifestyle choices, D4S practices could be a key factor in a revolution in production and consumption patterns, providing opportunities for people to flourish in less materialistic ways. The approaches discussed above, illustrated by the case studies, provide examples and experiences to inspire action and commitment to move forward, not just for producers but also for consumers. D4S is a concept in evolution, being one of the sustainable strategies to inspire new thinking about the entire circle of production and consumption.


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5.

References

Abernathy, W. and J. Utterback (1978). Patterns of Industrial Innovation. Technology Review, 80, pp 40-47 Ansoff, H. I. (1968). Corporate Strategy. Harmondsworth, Penguin. Baregheh, A., J. Rowley and S. Sambrook (2009). Towards a multidisciplinary definition of innovation, Management decision, vol. 47, no. 8, pp. 1323–1339 Brezet, J. C. and C. G. v. Hemel (1997). Ecodesign: A promising approach to sustainable production and consumption. Paris, UNEP. Crul, M., J. C. Diehl, and C. Ryan (2009). Design for sustainability - A step-by-step approach. Paris, UNEP. Diehl, J.; Kuipers, H. (2008) Design for the Base of the Pyramid: Student Field Projects in Cambodia; Proceedings of the Design ED Asia Conference, Hong Kong, China. Ehrenfeld, J. (2008). Sustainability by Design. London Yale University Press. Factor 10 Club (1997). Statement to government and business leaders. Carnoules: Factor 10 Institute. Miller, W. and L. Morris (1999). 4th Generation R&D: Managing knowledge, technology and innovation. Wiley, New York. NIDO/KSI (2003). Knowledge Project NIDO/KSI. To a National Knowledge & Competence Centre for Transitions to a Sustainable Society. NIDO, Leeuwarden, the Netherlands. OECD (2005) Olso Manual. Guidelines for collecting and interpreting Innovation Data. OECD, Paris. Roozenburg, N. F. M. and J. Eekels (1995). Product Design, Fundamentals and Methods. Chicester, Wiley & Sons. Schumpeter, J.A. (1934). The Theory of Economic Development. Harvard University Press, Boston. Tischner, U., C. Ryan, et al. (2009). Product Service Systems. In: Design for Sustainability: A Step-by-Step Approach. M. Crul, J. C. Diehl and C. Ryan. Paris, UNEP: pp 95-104. Tukker A. and U. Tischner eds. (2006). New Business for Old Europe. Product Services, Sustainability and Competitiveness. Greenleaf Publishers, Sheffield UK. Utterback, J.M. (1994). Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation, Harvard Business School Press, Boston. Von Weizsäcker, E., A. Lovins and H. Lovins (1997) – “Factor 4 - Doubling Wealth, Halving Resource Use”. Earthscan.


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1 Dale, Mr. Michael1a, Krumdieck, Prof. Susana, Bodger, Prof. Pat b 1

Corresponding author: AEMSLab, Dept. Mechanical Engineering, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand. Tel.: +64 3 3642987; fax +64 3 364 2078; e-mail: [email protected] a

Advanced Energy and Material Systems (AEMS) Lab, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041

b

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041

Global Energy Modelling – A Biophysical Approach Intended category: Limits to Growth The standard economic approach to energy modelling is outlined and contrasted with energy models taking a biophysical approach. The latter incorporate thermodynamic and ecological principles and emphasise the importance of natural resources to the economic process. Neither the standard economic nor biophysical approach accounts for changing energyreturns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource-accessibility and technological learning, nor the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. These two factors will become increasingly important in the future as fossil fuel depletion continues and a transition to alternative sources occurs. A modelling methodology offering an extension to the biophysical approach is presented, which utilises a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates both technological learning and declining resource accessibility. The methodology and main assumptions of the model are outlined and their validity is discussed. The model is calibrated using historical energy production data. Forecasts of future energy production from the model are presented and their policy implications are discussed.

1. Introduction Modern society currently uses approximately 500 exajoules (EJ = 1018 J) of total primary energy supply (TPES) each year. This energy consumption has been increasing at roughly 2% per year for the past two hundred years (Etemad and Luciani 1991). TPES is currently dominated by three non-renewable energy sources: coal, oil and gas which, together with energy from nuclear fission of uranium, make up around 85% of the energy market(IEA 2008). According to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2008 Reference Scenario (IEA 2008), total primary energy demand in 2030 will be 712 EJ, an increase of around 1.6% annually. This scenario projects that in 2030, non-renewable energy sources will still make up over 85% of TPES. A number of authors have begun to cast doubt such projections, instead predicting that production of some fuels, especially oil, may peak as soon as the next decade, if not earlier (Campbell and Laherrere 1998; Duncan and Youngquist 1999; ASPO 2001-2009; Bentley, Mannan et al. 2007). Consumption of finite resources at a continuously growing rate is not sustainable in the longterm. A trend in policy direction is to seek a transition to renewable sources of energy The World Energy Assessment (WEA) scenario C1 projects a TPES of 880 EJ/yr in 2100, predominantly (over 80%) from renewable energy sources (WEA 2000). Such a transition raises some pertinent questions: • • •

What is the substitutability of renewable energy for fossil fuels? Can renewable energy sources supply these projected levels of demand? What would be the effect on the economy of a transition to an energy supply system run entirely on renewable energy sources?



2

2. Energy modelling 2.1. Standard economic approach to energy modelling A number of energy-economy models have been developed since the ‘energy crises’ of the late seventies and early eighties. The most commonly used energy-economy models are: •

•

•

MESSAGE – Model for Energy Supply Systems And their General Environmental impact (Schrattenholzer 1981) developed by the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) MARKAL – the MARKet ALlocation model (Regemorter and Goldstein 1998) developed as part of the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) of the International Energy Agency (IEA) WEM – World Energy Model (IEA 2007; OECD/IEA 2009) also developed by the IEA to generate scenarios for their World Energy Outlook

The method common to all of these models is the determination of a Reference Energy System (RES) consisting of ‘energy chains’, linking primary energy resources, such as oil reserves or water in hydro reservoirs, via energy carriers (diesel fuel, electricity, etc.) to energy end-uses, such as transport or residential space heating (see Figure 1). Each of the processing stages within the energy chain is performed by a designated energy technology (oil rig and refinery, passenger train, hydro station, heat pump, etc.) with an associated financial cost. The only input required by the energy sector are sufficient monetary flows to cover the cost of energy processing.

Figure 1. Diagram showing the relationship between the main economy and a simplified reference energy system (RES) based on (Seebregts, Goldstein et al. 2001). Solid arrows represent energy or material flows and dashed arrows represent monetary flows.

Demand for energy over the time horizon of the model may be generated using microeconomic factors, such as increasing population and per capita demand for energy services, or by macro-economic factors, such as economic growth, or by some combination of the two. Technology costs are often user-defined, although some MARKAL models have a technology-cost database built in. The RES is then optimised via minimisation of an economic objective function to find a least-cost combination of technologies that meets demand at each time-step. Issues of defining technology costs, particularly over time horizons of decades, may be summed up by a statement from the Executive Summary of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2008: “the sources of oil to meet rising demand, the cost of producing it and the prices that consumers will need to pay for it are EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN, perhaps more than ever” (IEA 2008, emphasis added) In recent years, some authors have raised concerns, not only over constraints to available supply and rising energy prices, but also over declining EROI of energy resources and the negative effects this may have on the economy (Cleveland 1991; Peet 1992; Odum 1996;



3 Ayres 1998; Hall, Powers et al. 2008; Hall, Balogh et al. 2009). Standard economic approaches to energy modelling cannot capture the full implications of this decline without incorporating analysis of net energy yield (Peet 1986).

2.2. Biophysical energy-economy models The biophysical systems perspective stems from the concepts and theories expounded within the physical and biological sciences. The biophysical economist believes that the laws of these sciences must constrain the choices available to an economic agent and hence they use “basic ecological and thermodynamic principles to analyze the economic process” (Cleveland 1987). Whereas standard economic models account only for gross production by the energy sector, , energy analysis considers all energy flows between the energy sector and the rest of the economy (as depicted inFigure 2) in order to determine the net energy yield (the gross energy production less energy needs for extraction and processing), as in equation [1]. The ratio of net energy yield to the energy needed to obtain this yield, as in equation [2] , is known as the net energy ratio (NER) or energy-return-on-investment (EROI) (Baines and Peet 1983). The processes of the energy transformation sector necessitate the flow of energy back from the main economy; as the EROI of energy resources declines, so too does the net energy yield available to the economy. Many authors have begun questioning the effects that declining EROI values will have on the economy (Hall, Cleveland et al. 1986; Peet 1992; Cleveland 1993; Cleveland 2005; Hall, Powers et al. 2008). [1] [2]

Figure 2. Diagram to show the relationship between the main economy and the energy sector from (Hall, Cleveland et al. 1986). All arrows represent energy flows (all material flows being 'embodied' as energy).

A number of energy-economy models based on physical material and energy flows have been developed since the advent of energy analysis as a policy instrument. The question “what is the instantaneous upper limit to global economic activity?” inspired the development of the System, Time, Energy and Resources (STER) global energy supply model (Hounam 1979). Consideration of ‘whole-system’ dynamics lay behind the famous World3 – “Limits to Growth” – model (Meadows, Meadows et al. 1972) and has also inspired other such models



4 (Baines and Peet 1983; Bodger and Baines 1988) The Energy and Capital Creation Options (ECCO) methodology (Slesser 1992) has been applied on a global scale (King and Slesser 1995) as well as to a number of national economies (Slesser, King et al. 1997) including European countries (Battjes 1999), New Zealand (Ryan 1995) and Australia (Foran and Crane 1998). Although the issue of EROI of energy resources is represented in some of these models, the value of EROI for each energy source has sometimes been assumed to remain constant (Bodger and Baines 1988) or defined implicitly within the model with no reference to empirical data (Slesser 1992). In an attempt to rectify these issues a model of the energyeconomy system has been developed that explicitly includes the EROI of energy resources as a dynamic function of energy production. This paper deals with the methodology employed in the development of the GEMBA model.

3. Methodology: The energy-economy system is considered as a dynamic system. Dynamic systems are characterised by their complex nature, with many interacting causal and feedback loops. Due to the existence of feedback loops, complex dynamic systems cannot be fully understood analytically (Bertalanffy 1971; Forrester 1972; Hall and Day 1990), hence, these systems must be studied through numerical simulation. The basic structure of the energy-economy system is pictured as an energy circuit diagram in Figure 3. The system is composed of two sectors: the energy and industrial sectors. The energy produced by the energy sector flows into the industrial sector where it is embodied as physical capital. Energy ‘losses’ from the industrial sector include any energy consumed in activities that do not directly contribute to the production of physical capital, such as residential heating, lighting or energy for cooking, as well as losses due to inefficiency. The energy sector is reliant on ‘subsidies’ from the main economy in the form of energy to run its processes, , and physical capital, . The size of these subsidies is dependent on the scale of energy production and the EROI.

Figure 3. Structure of the GEMBA model as an energy circuit diagram. All stages of energy production have been collapsed into a single process. Feedback is introduced into the system due to the values of energy S1 and capital S2 subsidies changing as a function of energy production. Bold arrows represent energy flows with attendant losses ‘to earth’ as heat, etc and dashed arrows represent information flows.



5 Following the work of Bodger and Baines (1988), energy resources are characterised by three fundamental variables: • • •

Incept date: the year that the energy source first enters the market-place; Availability: how much of each energy source is still available Accessibility: the energy-return-on-investment (EROI) or energy yield ratio (EYR) offered by the energy source.

To these, the current authors have added another variable, capital factor, which describes the proportion of energy subsidy received by the energy sub-sector that is embodied as capital, as in equation [3]. [3]

Following the work of Costanza and Cleveland (1983), EROI is characterised by a peaking function dependent on energy production history. The current authors hypothesise that this function is the product of a technological and a physical component (see Figure 4). Other assumptions are that: (1) energy sources are perfectly substitutable; (2) the capital needs of the energy sector take priority over those of the industrial sector; (3) energy capacity is always used fully and; (4) availability of energy is the only constraint on industrial output. a)

b)

c)

Figure 4. Energy returns a) increasing due to technological improvements, b) decreasing due to physical resource depletion and c) product as peaking function of production

4. Results: The GEMBA model has been calibrated using historical data of energy production. The model output ‘total energy yield’ offers a good fit to the historical TPES data, with R2 = 0.987. When this ‘baseline’ run is projected into the future TPES peaks around 2060 and thereafter declines to a level of around 200 EJ/yr in 2200. This peak aligns closely with the peak in ENERGY PRODUCTIONNON-RENEWABLE (see Figure 5).



6

Figure 5. Historic data (red lines) compared with model outputs TOTAL ENERGY YIELD (blue line), NET ENERGY YIELD (black line), ENERGY PRODUCTIONNON-RENEWABLE (orange line) and ENERGY PRODUCTIONRENEWABLE (green line) of the baseline run

4.1. Sensitivity analysis The output of TOTAL ENERGY YIELD was modelled when adjusting the model parameter The result of the sensitivity analysis is plotted in Figure 6. Even if TPRENEWABLE is doubled, the baseline value for all renewable sources, TOTAL ENERGY YIELD peaks and declines to a level of 400 EJ/yr.

TPRENEWABLE.

Figure 6. Sensitivity analysis of TOTAL ENERGY PRODUCTION to doubling (dark blue line) and halving (black line) TPRENEWABLE from the baseline value, historic compared with total energy production (red line).

The output of the model to changes in the parameter PEAK EROIRENEWABLE was analysed. The result is displayed in Figure 7 Doubling the parameter PEAK EROIRENEWABLE has the effect of reducing the peak of TOTAL ENERGY YIELD compared with the baseline run. This is most likely due to the way by which ENERGY DEMAND is allocated between ENERGY SOURCES. FAVOURABILITYk is proportional to PEAK EROIk, hence increasing PEAK EROIRENEWABLE means that ENERGY PRODUCTIONRENEWABLE increases, which draws capital from re-investment into the



7 economy. However, despite the doubling in PEAK EROIRENEWABLE , TOTAL ENERGY YIELD in 2200 is only 280 EJ/yr compared with a value of 200 in the baseline run.

Figure 7. Sensitivity analysis of TOTAL ENERGY YIELD to doubling (dark blue line) and halving (black line) EROIRENEWABLE from the baseline value, compared with historic total energy production (red line).

5. Discussion: The results of the sensitivity analyses made with the GEMBA model suggest that the model structure is incapable of supporting current energy consumption levels using only renewable energy sources. If it is accepted that the GEMBA model is an adequate model of the global energy-economy system, then these results have definite implications for both sustainable development and energy policy. Most current energy policies make little or no distinction between the behaviour of the energy-economy system under a regime utilising mainly nonrenewable sources and that system running primarily on renewable energy sources. It is assumed that economic opportunities are the same within both system arrangements. Furthermore, most energy policies do not accept that renewable energy sources cannot support current levels of energy supply. It is simply assumed that renewable energy can be substituted for non-renewable energy sources so long as timely investment is made. Recognition that current energy levels cannot be sustained using renewable energy sources might (hopefully) result in energy policies that would attempt to curb or even reverse the current trend of increasing energy demand. How this might be achieved is a matter of some considerable debate, given an increasing global population and an assumed increase in material living standards for all. The validity of some of the assumptions behind the GEMBA model is now discussed.

5.1. Is the peaking function for accessibility valid? Figure 8 shows empirical data for EROI for production of conventional oil which declined rapidly in the second half of the twentieth century, from a value of around 100 to around 20 at the start of the twenty-first century. Whether the energy return peaked before this time is an open question.



8

100

80

60

EROI

1984 Cleveland et al (US) 1984 Cleveland et al (World) 2005 Cleveland (US)

40

1986 Hall et al (US) 1986 Hall et al (production) 1986 Hall et al (discoveries) 1976 Leach (UK)

20

1986 Hall et al 2000 Cleveland (US) 1974 Chapman et al 1974 Chapman*

0 1920

1930

1940

1950

Year

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Figure 8. Dynamic estimates of EROI of conventional oil production from various sources (Cleveland, Costanza et al. 1984), (Cleveland 2005), (Hall, Cleveland et al. 1986), (Leach 1976), (Zucchetto 2004), (Hopkins 2008), (Cleveland, Kaufmann et al. 2000), (Chapman, Leach et al. 1974), and 1974 Chapman* data from (Boustead and Hancock 1979)

5.2. Are renewable energy sources more capital intensive? A major assumption within the GEMBA model is that renewable energy sources are more capital intensive than non-renewable. The consequence of this assumption is that in the transition to a renewable energy system, there is less physical capital available for reinvestment into the economy, hence energy demand decreases. Is this assumption valid? Table 1 shows results from a number of recent studies regarding capital inputs into the energy production process. These studies show a large disparity between the capital intensity of renewable and non-renewable energy sources, offering strong support for the assumption that “renewable energy production is more capital intensive than non-renewable”. Assuming that greenhouse gas emissions are a suitable proxy for energy consumption; in general, capital inputs into energy production from fossil fuels tend to be below 5% of their total energy inputs, for nuclear this figure is around 30%, and for hydro, wind and PV, it is at least 95%. Table 1. Capital requirements into energy production process from various authors Energy Source

Capital Factor

Coal

Hard coal – 0.8-1.8% of energy for capital requirements (Frischknecht, Althaus et al. 2007)

Oil

2.2% of energy for capital requirements (Frischknecht, Althaus et al. 2007)

Gas

Electricity from gas (standard) – 0.6-1.0% of energy for capital requirements(Frischknecht, Althaus et al. 2007)

Nuclear

Around 15% GHG emissions from construction, decommissioning and spent fuel storage (Hondo 2005)

Biomass

Electricity from wood (co-gen) – 27.3-33.9% of energy for capital requirements (Frischknecht, Althaus et al. 2007)

Hydro

82.8% GHG emissions from plant construction (Hondo 2005)

Geothermal

35.3% GHG emissions from plant construction, 30% from “exchange of equipment” (Hondo 2005)

Wind

97.6-98.5% of energy for capital requirements (Frischknecht, Althaus et al. 2007)

PV

95% of energy due to construction (Meier 2002)



9

5.3. Is demand substitutable between energy sources? The condition that energy demand is homogeneous between energy sources assumes that energy sources are perfect substitutes. In the short-term this assumption may seem invalid; a car cannot run on coal, nor a laptop on petrol. However, in the long-term, there is evidence to suggest that this assumption has validity. Since 1800, energy for land transport has switched from biomass (in the form of horse-feed), to steam trains powered by coal, to automobiles powered by petroleum. Lighting and heating have undergone similar technology transformations in the same period. This substitutability assumption acts to increase the flexibility of the GEMBA model, when compared with the real energy-economy system, which is severely constrained in options for substitution for certain energy sources. Within the GEMBA model, decline in the production of oil may easily be absorbed by increasing production of coal. Within the real energyeconomy system, the ability to substitute between these two sources is low in the case of transport, which currently accounts for 60% of oil consumption worldwide (IEA 2008). The consequences of constraining the substitutability of energy resources could be explored in further development of the model.

6. Conclusion: The underlying motivation for developing energy models and the standard economic approach taken by the main ‘contenders’ – MESSAGE, MARKAL and WEM – was given. Some of the limitations of such an approach have been outlined and other physical resourcebased models, seeking to obviate these problems, have been identified. The model developed in this paper represents an extension on the alternative ‘biophysical’ approach. A number of the assumptions underlying the GEMBA methodology have been presented and their validity has been discussed. The GEMBA model is used to explore the large-scale transition from non-renewable to renewable energy sources and the subsequent affects on the net energy yield from the energy sector to the rest of the economy. Two scenarios were investigated, in which the both the availability and EROI of renewable energy resources was changed from the baseline values. The model results from the baseline run and from the scenarios suggest that energy supply may be constrained in the future. This runs contrary to results from economic models, which predict ever increasing future energy demand. Results from the GEMBA model also suggest that the increasing capital requirements of a large scale shift to renewable forms of energy may stymie re-investment in other sectors of the economy. This will reduce demand for energy. The investment in physical capital required to deliver 500 EJ of energy from renewable sources may be greater than the economy can supply. This recognition has broad implications for current energy policies hoping to supply projected future energy demand with growth in renewables.

Acknowledgements This research was made possible with financial assistance from the University of Canterbury, Department of Mechanical Engineering and the Keith Laugesen Trust. This organisation provides scholarships for PhD engineering students at the University of Canterbury. I would also like to thank Dr. John Peet and Rev. Dr. Keith Morrison for their advice and support.



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11 Frischknecht, R., H. J. Althaus, et al. (2007). "The environmental relevance of capital goods in life cycle assessments of products and services." International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 12: 7-17. Hall, C., S. Balogh, et al. (2009). "What is the Minimum EROI that a Sustainable Society Must Have?" Energies 2(1): 25-47. Hall, C. A. S., C. J. Cleveland, et al. (1986). Energy and Resource Quality: The Ecology of the Economic Process, John Wiley & Sons. Hall, C. A. S. and J. W. Day (1990). Ecosystem modeling in theory and practice : an introduction with case histories. Niwot, Colo, University Press of Colorado. Hall, C. A. S., R. Powers, et al. (2008). Peak Oil, EROI, Investments and the Economy in an Uncertain Future. Biofuels, solar and wind as renewable energy systems : benefits and risks. D. Pimentel. [Dordrecht], Springer: xxi, 504 p. Hondo, H. (2005). "Life cycle GHG emission analysis of power generation systems: Japanese case." Energy 30(11-12): 2042-2056. Hopkins, R. (2008). The Transition Handbook: From Oil Dependence to Local Resiliance, Green Books Hounam, I. (1979). STER - A Global Energy Supply Model. Energy systems analysis : proceedings of the International Conference, held in Dublin, Ireland, 9-11 October 1979. International Conference on Energy Systems Analysis (1979 : Dublin) and R. Kavanagh. Dublin, Ireland, Reidel: xvi,678p. IEA (2007). A Hybrid Modelling Framework to Incorporate Expert Judgment in Integrated Economic and Energy Models – The IEA WEM-ECO model, International Energy Agency. IEA (2008). World Energy Outlook 2008, International Energy Agency. King, J. and M. Slesser (1995). "Can the World Make the Transition to a Sustainable Economy Driven by Solar-Energy." International Journal of Environment and Pollution 5(1): 14-29. Leach, G. (1976). Energy and Food Production, IPC Science and Technology Press. Meadows, D. H., D. L. Meadows, et al. (1972). The Limits to Growth. New York, Universe Books. Meier, P. J. (2002). Life Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation Systems and Applications for Climate Change Policy Analysis. Madison, WI, USA, University of Wisconsin. PhD Land Resources. Odum, H. T. (1996). Environmental accounting : EMERGY and environmental decision making. New York, Wiley. OECD/IEA (2009). World Energy Model - Methodology and Assumptions, International Energy Agency. Peet, J. (1992). Energy and the ecological economics of sustainability. Washington, D.C, Island Press. Peet, N. J. (1986). Energy Analysis: A Review of Theory and Applications, New Zealand Energy Research and Development Committee. Regemorter, D. v. and D. Goldstein (1998). Development of MARKAL - Towards a Partial Equilibrium Model. ETSAP Technical Paper, Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program. Ryan, G. J. (1995). Dynamic Physical Analysis of Long-term Economy-Environment Options. Mechanical Engineering. Christchurch, New Zealand, University of Canterbury. PhD in Chemical and Process Engineering. Schrattenholzer, L. (1981). The Energy Supply Model MESSAGE, IIASA. Seebregts, A. J., G. A. Goldstein, et al. (2001). Energy/Environmental Modeling with the MARKAL Family of Models. International Conference on Operations Research.



12 Slesser, M. (1992). ECCO: User's Manual. Resource Use Institute. Edinburgh, Scotland. Slesser, M., J. King, et al. (1997). The management of greed : a bio-physical appraisal of economic and environmental potential. Edinburgh, RUI Publishing. WEA (2000). World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability. J. Goldemberg. New York, UNDP. Zucchetto, J. (2004). "Reflections on Howard T. Odum’s paper: Energy,Ecology and Economics, Ambio, 1973." Ecological Modelling 178: 195-198.



David, PhD(c), Laurentiu (Presenter) Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, University of Toronto 252 Bloor Street West, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1V6, e-mail: [email protected] Fistung, Ph.D, M.Sc.Eng, Frantz Daniel Economics Center of Industry and Services – Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Calea 13 Septembrie, nr.13 Sector 5, e-mail: [email protected]

On the Road to Sustainability - The Case of the Romanian Transport Sector Theme: Resilient Societies

ABSTRACT This paper undertakes a macro-level analysis of the present transportation sector in Romania while exploring potential strategic options within the context of integrating the existing European environmental policies that address the sustainability factor. The intention is to develop a framework that will help the Romanian sector of transport to identify the targets and strategies for the development and deployment of such policies in order to minimize the effects of the existing pollutant modes of transportation. The fast adoption of such pertinent strategies for the development and implementation of a public transportation, rail, naval and multimodal transportation seems to be the key factor in the introduction of a sustainable transport system in Romania. Despite some very serious obstacles that are presently challenging the Romanian transport system, the development of a transportation infrastructure that is built upon the principles of sustainable development will ask for a reorientation in favor of new transportation modes that are less pollutant and much more energy efficient. It is assumed that in order to allow for such retrenchment to occur some key changes in the Romanian transport policy priorities will need to take place. Keywords: sustainable transportation, energy efficiency, transportation infrastructure, European policies JEL classification: H23, L91, L98, Q56, R41 Introduction Transport is one of the key factors in the developing process of modern economies. However, while on one hand the society demands ever greater mobility, the public, on the other hand, is becoming increasingly intolerant to congestion, chronic delays, noise, environmental impacts and poor quality of some transportation services. As the demand for transportation keeps increasing, the community’s answer cannot be limited merely to building new infrastructure and opening up of new markets. 1



In the past two decades Romania has recognized a huge change at different levels, particularly political, economical, social and legal. Romania has become a NATO member towards the end of the twentieth century, and recently a member of the European Union. Membership in these organizations triggers the obligation to meet some timely expectations – standards, bylaws etc. Presently, the Romanian transport system needs to be optimized in order to meet the demands of enlargement and sustainable development, as set out in the conclusions of the European Council in Gothenburg. According to the Council, a modern transport system must be sustainable from an economic and social, as well as, an environmental perspective. One issue that has been raised in the past about the various strategies for sustainable transportation was tailored around the possible future economic consequences. While on one hand, the investments in transportation, particularly on highways, have been seen as promoters of economic growth and development, on the other hand, the environmental considerations have been viewed as constraints to the expansion of the transportation system, but at the same time as potential brakes on the economic growth. The existing widespread concerns are that environmental protection is costly and that economic losses could result from interference with market preferences for auto mobility and suburban living. The implications of the fact that the desire for environmental protection must be traded off for the desire of economic development has permeated many policy discussions. Recently, a broader view has emerged. Evidence supporting the social and environmental consequences of transportation has made it clear that consumers are paying only a portion of the full costs of their deliberate preference for a particular type of transportation, particularly road. (Maddison, Pearce, et al., 1996) Presently, most problems are caused by the effects of deficiencies, as well as, failures of the market. Specifically, in Romania, the main contributing factors are the omission and the underevaluation or incorrect estimation of the transportation costs. In the presence of the negative externalities, one may think that a „market fall” might exist, in the sense of reduction in intensity of those activities having as a result the increase of the benefits that may be experienced by the society as a whole. For this reason the transport services have had the tendency to continue their activity up to the level where the marginal net benefit, obtained along with the last kilometer covered, was zero (the phenomenon of indifference for the last kilometer covered). For this reason, it seems that those who are affected the most by the effects of the negative externalities caused by the transportation sector agree to pay more for reducing these effects than those ones who are causing them. There are two alternatives regarding the modalities of reducing the negative externalities caused by transportation. The first alternative pertains to those actions that aim at the reduction of transport activities, in general. The second alternative refers to the adoption of some technical measures that might render results similar to those resulting from the decreasing of the transportation activities. In order to maximize the efficiency resulting from the externalities limiting actions, on the basis of minimum costs, it is necessary to employ a mix of the two previously mentioned alternatives. There has been a growing recognition that many transportation projects have not been subjected to a rigorous economic analysis. This fact per se led to the partial cancellation of their cost effectiveness. In the future, Romania is obliged to implement proper policies for energy consumption reduction and for environment protection, despite the actual tendencies that aim at in the opposite ways. It is obvious that even though, rhetorically, the official 2



Romanian environmental strategy has been strongly in favor of a sustainable transport system development, in fact, the last two decades showed exactly the opposite. Though the road infrastructure development remains the first priority of the Romanian officials, the main funds allocated for these types of activities, unfortunately, are directed to projects that are not environmentally friendly. Those tendencies are not in accordance with the present European strategy and are dangerous for the future of the Romanian transport strategy to the point where Romania could be rejected from the future common European transportation network. Actual tendencies regarding the European transportation strategy The world transport strategy is expected to be reoriented according to the sustainable principles. In the past, the elaboration of policies for transport development, was made by taking into consideration some discretionary rules that were focused only on the existing situation, as well as the forecasting of some possible development scenarios that were directly related to some possible expected financial allocations. These specific policies underlined the interconected relationship between the development of the transports and the global socioeconomic evolution, as support for the increase of the general prosperity. Unfortunately, this approach was conjectural because most of the policies designed for transportation development, discretionarly used unregenerable resources or hardly regenerable in the environment, producing serious effects, on long term, to the environment and human health. As a result it appears, as unavoidable, the necessity for development of a new approach to transportation policies in the sense of achieving an equilibrium between transportation and protection of the surrounding environment. Such an approach may be that of the sustainable transportation, definition that comes from the main concept of durable development of the society. The concept of sustainable transportation was defined as ”the complex system that meets the mobility requirements of present generations, without damaging the environment and human health while improving the efficiency of the energy consumption so that in the future will be possible to satisfy the mobility needs of other generations”(Fistung D., 1999). In this context, the EU has initiated a number of policies and initiatives aiming at limiting the negative effects of transportation. The EU orientation has been oriented towards encouraging a shift from road transport to lower environmental impact modes, such as clean buses, railways, as well as waterways. The EU Commission has proposed that all member states introduce a charging infrastructure that will directly influence the transportation demand, by moving towards a situation where prices paid by transportators reflect the full costs to society. (e.g. the Euro vignette directive) Unfortunately, at this time the implementation of such measures, especially in Romania, is limited. From another perspective, some significant progress - albeit offset by the increase in demand and volume of transportation - has been made in vehicle and fuel technology, driven by EU legislation and initiatives. Similar actions have been pursued to improve the urban environment and land-use management through the EU Structural Funds programme “Urban II” and the Research Framework Programme, for example. The emerging view is that the economic development and environmental protection are both desired objectives along with social justice (equity); that transportation planners should be pursuing strategies, like Sectoral Operational Program on Transport – SOPT on infrastructure in Romania, that deliver on all counts, not just on the economic front; and that analyses should reflect the full range of concerns about projects—economic, social, and environmental. (Romanian Government, 2007) In the future, it should be recognized the fact that the unconditional encouragement of policies that allow for unrestricted car use are not sustainable from an economical, social or 3



environmental point of view. An alternative and sustainable transport strategy would contain specific targets and measures to reduce the car use. This aspect could be achieved through a number of alternatives which would fall broadly into two distinct categories: (a) reducing the travel demand (via means such as better urban planning practices including mixed use zoning, urban infill rather than continuing sprawl, development of more effective activity centers, etc), and (b) reversing the current hierarchy of transportation priorities so that planning and funding are consistently directed to facilitating priorities in the following order: - public transport - rail - multi modal - walking - cycling - other transport modes (including private motor vehicles). The first EU Sustainable Development Strategy (hereinafter EUSDS) was elaborated by the European Council in Gothenburg (EU Sustainable Development Strategy, European Council, 2001) and renewed in Brussels in 2006 based on the proposals from the World Summit on Sustainable Development that took place in Johannesburg in 2002. The EUSDS points out to the unsustainable trends pertaining to climate change and energy use,which threatens public health, poverty and social exclusion, management of natural resources, biodiversity loss, land use and transportation. The EUSDS released new targets for the EU countries with respect to the transport sector. First of them is about climate change and clean energy while the second one is about sustainable development. The operational objectives that are related to the transportation sector include the following (European Council, 2001): - Adaptation to, and mitigation of, climate change should be integrated in all relevant European policies. - By 2010 5.75% of transport fuel should consist of bio-fuels, as an indicative target; - Reaching an overall saving of 9% of final energy consumption until 2017; - Decoupling economic growth and the demand for transport with the aim of reducing environmental impacts. - Achieving sustainable levels of transport energy use and reducing transport greenhouse gas emissions. - Reducing pollutant emissions from transport to levels that minimise effects on human health and/or the environment. - Achieving a balanced shift towards environment friendly transport modes to bring about a sustainable transport and mobility system. - Reducing transportation noise both at source and through mitigation measures to ensure overall exposure levels minimise impacts on health. - Modernising the EU framework for public passenger transport services to encourage better efficiency and performance by 2010. - In line with the EU strategy on CO2 emissions from light duty vehicles, the average new car fleet should achieve CO2 emissions of 140g/km (2008/09) and 120g/km (2012). - Halving road transport deaths by 2010 compared to 2000. The introduction of policies that promote railways (both in passenger and freight transport) and public road transport is expected to lead to a more favorable development of the EU transportation sector. Improvements would be even greater if policies towards the more rational use of transportation modes (through improving vehicle load factors) would also be

4



implemented. The limited response of consumers to several policy instruments used in the past, including the very high taxation on fuels for private transportation on roads, and the increasing importance of the transportation sector in the future evolution of the EU energy, as a system make very important the implementation of the proposed policies of the White Paper for Transport which played a significant role in easing the pressures caused by rapid growth of the transportation sector. It is very possible that in the future, this kind of policy options will also contribute to improvements to traffic congestion, air quality etc. In order to obtain a better analytical insight into the results of this scenario, two alternative cases were defined (European Commission, 2002): • A scenario assuming that the share of rail (both passenger and freight) and public road transport activity will remain essentially stable at the 1998 level up to 2010, in contrast to the actual trend of continuously diminishing shares of these modes. In other words this scenario assumes that, with the overall transportation volume (expressed in passenger-kilometers and tone-kilometers) remaining unchanged from actual levels, policies promoting rail transport and public road transport will lead to a stronger growth of these modes compared to today’s reality. This growth will possibly occur to the detriment of other transportation modes, thereby leading to a higher share of rail and public road transportation. • A scenario involving the assumptions previously made for rail and public road transportation activity but assuming, additionally, that load factors of all transport modes will increase significantly by 2010 in comparison to present trends. This means that all transportation modes will be used in a much more efficient way than today. This scenario is in line with the Commission’s White Paper on Transport and is the most plausible scenario that can be implemented by the end of 2010 in order to curb the energy consumption and CO2 emissions from transportation under future economic developments. The Green Paper on Security of Supply (European Commission, 2000) released in November 2000 highlighted the important role of the transportation sector in the light of growing demand for energy and CO2 emissions. Transportation in the enlarged EU accounted for 26% of overall CO2 emissions in 2000. According to the actual developments, the emissions from transportation are expected to increase by 40% between 1990 and 2010 in EU-27. Some measures on transportation policy were taken at the Community level, which addressed the following issues that are expected to become part of Romanian legislation (European Commission, 2002) with respect to transportation sector: • Revitalizing the railways. Rail transportation is, in some ways, the key issue in shifting the modal balance, particularly in the case of goods. The EU future plans include the opening up of markets, not only for international services, as agreed in December 2000, but also for cabotage in all member states’ national markets. Moreover the plans include also the international passenger services. The opening up of markets is expected to be accompanied by further harmonization in the areas of interoperability and safety. • Improving quality in the road transportation sector. In the near future, some legislation that will allow for the harmonization of certain clauses in contracts to protect carriers from consignors should be developed. • Promoting transportation by sea and inland waterways. The way to revive short-sea shipping is to build a virtual sea “motorways" network within the framework of the master plan for the trans-European network. This will require better connections between ports, railways and inland waterway networks, together with improvements in the quality of port services. To increase maritime safety the Commission proposed minimum social rules to be observed in ship inspections and in the light of developing a genuine European maritime traffic management system.

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• Striking a balance between growth in the air transport and the environment. It is imperative to establish and implement legislation on air traffic. The accompanying measures should ensure that the inevitable expansion of airport capacity remains strictly subjected to new regulations pertaining to the decrease in aircraft noise and pollution. • Turning inter-modality into reality. Action must be taken to ensure a full integration of those modes offering considerable potential transportation capacity in an efficiently managed transportation chain which joins up all the individual services. The priorities must revolve around the technical harmonization and interoperability between systems, particularly for containers. • Building the trans-European transport network. An effort is expected to be made in order to reduce the saturation of certain major arteries and the consequent pollution. The Commission proposed to concentrate on removing bottlenecks in the railway network; the main concern is in completing the routes identified as the priorities for absorbing the traffic flows generated by enlargement, particularly in frontier regions; and in improving access to outlying areas. • Improving road safety. Every day the total number of people killed on Europe’s roads is practically the same as in a medium haul plane crash. Road accident victims, the dead or injured, cost society tens of billions of euro - but the human costs are incalculable. For this reason, the EU will endeavor to halve the number of such victims by the end of 2010. • Adopting a policy on effective charging for transport. In this respect, the White Paper developed the following guidelines: (i) harmonization of fuel taxation for commercial users, particularly in road transport; and (ii) alignment of the principles for charging for infrastructure use. • Recognizing the rights and obligations of users. European citizens’ rights to have access to high quality services providing integrated services at affordable prices will be reinforced. • Developing high-quality urban transport. A better approach is needed from local public authorities to reconcile modernization of the public transport services with more rational car use to achieve sustainable development. • Putting research and technology at the service of clean, efficient transport. The research framework program provides an opportunity to put new applications such as inter-modality, clean vehicles and telematics into action; and to facilitate co-ordination and increased efficiency in the transport research system. • Developing medium- and long-term environmental objectives for a sustainable transportation system. A sustainable transport system needs to be defined in operational terms of providing the policy-makers with more useful guidelines and information.

Romania’s tendencies of transportation development and the major gaps according to the European strategy The set up, in the next few years, of a unic European market in the field of transportation, makes necessary the adoption, by all member and candidate states, of certain measures that would permit the rapid interconection. These measures must be taken, without any doubts, in order to support the sustainable transportation development else, more and major market distortions will appear, especially produced by the faster development of the unsustainable transportation modes compared with other more environmentally friendly. Elaborating major development strategies is a major thrust for sustainable development plans. Documenting and evaluating these sustainability initiatives—both their institutional framework and the substance of their accomplishments—could provide valuable models for further development of transportation in Romania according to sustainable principles.The adoption and application

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in practice of new transportation policies does not imply an immediate and abrupt modification of Romanians’ lifestyle. Within this context the most imminent question to address would be: What type of measures should be adopted in Romania for achieving, simultaneously, sustainable development of transportation while limiting the consumption of energy resources? The answer to this question should be focused around the energy efficiency aspect. Due to the increased number of cars and transportation vehicles the consumption of fuel increased in last two decades. The energy efficiency in the Romanian transportation sector, which is one of the most important issues, is exacerbated by the old infrastructure which is energy intensive. Presently, the energy efficiency is one of the major targets for the transportation sector. There is a danger that if no measures will be implemented in the near future, the private car fleet will continue to grow due to the overall development of the country’s economy in the detriment of the public transport, which is the actual solution to reducing the pollution caused by transport vehicles. If no investments will be made soon in modernizing the existing infrastructure, the pressure on the energy resources consumption will grow. The good aspect of it is that the pressure on the natural resources necessary for the development of the roads and rail infrastructure will decrease. From a different perspective though, the transportation sector is nearly fully dependent on fossil fuel. In early 1990’s the increased economic development allowed for improvements in energy efficiency of public and private transportation in Romania. As a result, Romania recognized the greatest decline in energy consumption - 15% among eastern European countries. Over the last decade things took a different twist. Presently, 80% of the energy consumed in Romania in the transportation sector was by road. (Guvernul Romaniei, 2008). Energy consumption in the transportation sector of industry will continue to grow if no investments will be made in the public transportation sector which showed already a drifting decline during the last two decades. Road transportation will continue to be the largest energy consumer due to public transport and rail being gradually withdraw from the infrastructure due to inefficiency. If no support is given to renewable energy sources, Romania will continue to stand aside from developments of bio-fuel and bio-fuel market in terms of production and use. Presently, the last evolutions in the transportation sector did not encourage the development of solutions with respect to energy efficiency and sustainable development. Lack of investment during 1990-2004 combined with a poor service quality has led to a fall in the public transportation use. An increase in the number of road vehicles, particularly passenger cars (from 1.29mln in 1990 to 5.3mln in 2009, or from 55.7 passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants in 1990 to 247.7 passenger cars per 1,000 inhabitants in 2009) was observed in the past. The number of freight motor vehicles grew from 258,701 in 1990 to 506,427 in 2009 which is an increase of about 196% (Guvernul Romaniei, 2010). The freight and passenger railway transport (in tons-km/year and respectively passengers-km/year) has been characterized by a sharp decline between 1990 and 2010. Only in the last six years the decline figures are: -10.3% and - 30% respectively (EUROSTAT, 2010). The increase in road traffic resulted in congestion not only in the cities but in the narrow rural and international roads. During the same period of time, a similar situation happened in the freight transport (in tonskm) and passenger transport (in passengers-km) of other transport means: inland waterways transport (- 16%, respectively - 67%), maritime transport (- 98%) and air transport (- 79%, respectively - 41%), except road. Significant decreases took place in bus (3.5 times) and minibus passenger transportation (2.5 times) usage over 1990 – 2004 periods. Compared with the EU countries, the interurban bus and mini-bus passenger-km per inhabitant/year are by far the

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lowest in Romania. The average in the EU is around 1,000 passenger-km, compared with just 242 passenger-km in Romania. With respect to waterways, after a notable decrease between 1990 and 1999, the traffic in the port of Constanta reached 33 million tons in 2001 (compared with 42.4 mil. tones in 1990). With respect to airways, from 2000 to 2005 the number of the air passengers grew 1.77 times. Railway transportation is an ecological transportation and one of the most effective measures to reduce pollution, with positive results on both short and long runs. The poor condition of the rail infrastructure has triggered a reduction of the operational speed while the level of comfort was affected by the ageing passenger fleet. In addition, the train timetable does not appear to be suited for the current needs, in particular because of the extensive use of large train units at low frequencies. It appears that the largest (passenger) railway company is primarily operating trains without striving to meet their passenger needs; in other words, the railway public transportation is not customer-oriented enough as remains the case in many other EU countries. Based on the present statistics, a rapid growth in car ownership will be experienced over the next 10 years. If the state of public rail and public transport will continue to deteriorate, the usage of public transportation will continue to drop. It is estimated that the overall passenger transportation average increase (in passengers-km) will be of 3.7% per year between 2005 and 2015 (Guvernul Romaniei, 2008)), with higher rates for road transportation and lower rates for rail transportation It is evaluated that overall freight transport (in tons-km) has increased, in average, by 1.1% per year between 2001 and 2007 and is estimated by 5.3% per year from 2007, with higher rates for road transport and lower rates for rail transport. If no economic and political measures will be carried out, the already poor condition of the rail infrastructure will further continue to deteriorate and a further reduction of the operational speed and safety movement will take place, while the level of comfort will be affected by the ageing passenger fleet. In the same time the rail passenger company, owned by the State, is primarily responsible for operating trains and is not customer-oriented. All these issues will persist in the close future, if no improvements to both infrastructure and fleet will be made. The past and present tendencies of the Romanian transportation development indicate that a lot needs to be done in order to establish a sustainable transportation sector. The average EU urban and interurban passenger-km per inhabitant is around 1,000 while in Romania it is only 247.7, which means that unless the public transport will become more attractive immediately, the number of private cars will continue to grow or at least will not help decrease the traffic in towns. (EUROSTAT, 2010) Water transportation infrastructure condition is further deteriorating and in many cases the equipment is operating 20 years beyond its economic life. The Danube River which is under a “natural flow” has been subjected to a few and unsatisfactory measures adopted for improving the conditions of navigation and safety of operation on the river. In addition the quality of navigation on the Sulina Channel is in great need of consolidation of the riverbanks, and establishing topometric-hydrographic measurement and signaling systems on the Romanian section of the Danube River. Otherwise, the current traffic flow can drastically decrease in the future. Conclusions Romania’s transport system case is idiosyncratic. On one hand, the transport sector of the economy inherited an outdated system in terms of both infrastructure and road vehicles. On 8



the other hand, from an environment perspective, the old system have had some good elements built-in that have not been exploited and/or developed, in the past decade or so, to its full potential. In this respect, if before 1990’s the Romanian transport policies emphasized largely on the usage of railways, especially for the movement of commercial goods and merchandise, presently this type of transport mean is lagging well behind the road transport which has been more supported by the after 1990’s transport system policies. Notwithstanding this, in the future, in Romania, the inappropriate transport system orientations will need to be modified given the existing circumstances related to the expectations of the European community, as well as by the examples of neighboring countries. In this respect, both Hungary and Austria have initiated programs that restrict the movement of the in-transit merchandise by asking all road transporters to use piggyback type of intermodal transport system. Recommendations In order to improve the collaboration between the national transportation planners and the local and regional officials it is expected that a number of proper measures should be in place for each region/locality. Also, these measures should meet the national necessities and the EU demands and legislation. In our opinion, some major measures must be adopted by the Romanian authorities, in order to achieve sustainable transportation development and the European requirements: • the development of a long-term strategy that would support the development of a sustainable transportation system with positive effects on both the environment and public health; • the evaluation on a long term basis, taking into consideration all the economic, ecologic and social implications, of such sustainable system development; • the definition of some specific qualitative objectives based on the enviroment and public health protection's criteria and standards which shall implicitly respect the principles of sustainable development; • the evaluation of possible socio-economic implications of the new strategies based on the principles of sustainable development; • the implementation of proper measures for monitoring the implementation of proposed sustainable strategies; a number of well-defined indicators should be used be used for baseling; • sustainable measures should be adopted, concomitantly, at national and local levels and must include environmental, social and economic measures. In our opinion, a very important measure that must be adopted is to internalize the negative externalities, most of them produced by the road transportation. In that way, the transportation market could be rebalanced, and the sustainable transportation modes encouraged developing themselves; • real encouraging the most environmentally friendly modes, such rail, for example, in opposition with the actual tendencies, in favour of road. The rail network needs significant improvement given the usage and poor condition of the infrastructure for efficient connections – on several tracks sectors the speed is restricted - before the interoperability will be possible. Frequency, journey time, level of comfort and higher accessibility to more areas of the country, need a lot of improvement otherwise is unlikely that railway transport will play a significant role in transport, in the detriment of other means. If there will be no measures to justify the price it is unlikely that trains will become a favorite mean of transportation, but rather necessary, therefore not contributing too much to the option of increasing the environmentally friendly transport options in Romania. 9



References 1. European Commission. (2000). Green Paper on Security of Supply, Brussels. 2. European Commission. (2002). The White Paper on Transport, Brussels 3. Maddison D., Pearce D., et al.(1996). The true costs of road transport, London: Earthscan Publications Ltd. 4. European Council. (2001). EU Sustainable Development Strategy. Gothenburg. 5. European Council. (2001). Presidency Conclusions, SN/200/1/01/REV1, Gothenburg from http://ec.europa.eu/governance/impact/background/docs/goteborg_concl_en.pdf. 6. EUROSTAT.(2010). Statistics from http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/transport/data/main_tables. 7. Fistung D..(1999). Transporturi. Teorie economica, ecologie, legislatie, Bucharest: ALL BECK Publisher. 8. Guvernul Romaniei, Ministerul Transporturilor. (2008). Strategia pentru transportul durabil pe perioada 2007-2013 si 2020, 2030 from http://www.mt.ro/strategie/strategii%20sectoriale_acte%20normative/strategie%20dezvolt are%20durabila%20noua%20ultima%20forma.pdf 9. Ministerul Administratiei si Internelor, DRPCIV. (2010). Indicatori statistici 2009 privind evidentele auto, permisele de conducere si examinarile from http://www.drpciv.ro/infoportal/downloadFile.do?menu=newsletters&lang=ro&id=71 10. Romanian Government-Ministry of Transport. (2007). Sectoral Operational ProgrammeTransport 2007-2013. Bucharest from http://post.mt.ro/POS_Transport_final_EN.pdf. 11. Romanian Government-Ministry of Transport. Environmental Report (SEA) of Sectoral Operational Programme – Transport Infrastructure Romania (2007), from http://post.mt.ro/SEA/SEA_report_TRAN_EN_FINAL.pdf.

10



AUTHOR:

Vince Dravitzki

Co-authors:

Tiffany Lester Peter Cenek

Title:

Pathways to a more Sustainable Transport Infrastructure

Contact information: Vince Dravitzki Transport and Environmental Sciences Research Manager Opus International Consultants Central Laboratories, PO Box 30845, Lower Hutt, New Zealand Phone 64 4 5870638 | Email: [email protected]

Abstract The imperative to respond to the issues resulting from Peak Oil and Climate Change requires that New Zealand must move from its current high energy use, high resource use, high cost, petroleum dependent, transport infrastructure, to a sustainable one. Because a country's energy profile will increasingly define its economic success, New Zealand needs also to move to a lower energy society to remain competitive with other countries. What will be New Zealand’s successful transport energy of the future and how it may be best used are key considerations of our future sustainable transport system. Low energy, low material use and consequently low cost, will be the main criteria. This paper first identifies our current transport energy usage, and some of the risks of being slow to respond to change. The paper then questions the central tenants of the current New Zealand Land Transport Strategy (2008) that we move to bio-fuels and electric cars because this is not a low energy, low cost pathway. We advocate that instead of just coping with change, New Zealand uses the necessity to change as an opportunity to recast our transport infrastructure to greatly improve the economic success and liveability of our settlements to New Zealand's benefit. The second part of the paper outlines a transport infrastructure based around electricity, with a heavy emphasis on public transport use, but also with freight much more dependent on electrified rail. This second part discusses: the advantages that NZ has that will facilitate this transition, such as favourable urban forms; the energy needs and energy availability; the benefits and liveability improvements that should accrue; and the need for lead investment which can also be a tool which induces change of settlement form, thereby reinforcing the effectiveness of the new infrastructure; and some of the impediments. Introduction The basis for much of our current transport infrastructure lies in the 1950s. This period marked a pronounced shift in our transport infrastructure, so that we became a high energy, high cost society. Aged electric tram systems in 9 cities were scrapped and their road space given over to cars. Diesel powered locomotives entered service rather than electrifying the railways. A road-only bridge across the Auckland harbour helped reinforce Auckland’s sprawling car dependant nature. A roll-on roll-off ferry service linked the North and South Islands signalled the demise of coastal shipping. Motor vehicle assembly became the mainstay of industrial growth and employment in Auckland and Wellington. Planning of that era laid out the motorway systems of the major cities and completing these systems still shape

1 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 92


the thinking and expenditure of the recent National Infrastructure Plan. (Dravitzki &Lester 2006) As a consequence of these changes energy use and transport costs are now much higher. Rather than using about 0.5 MJ per passenger kilometre on electric trams we were now using about 2 MJ per passenger kilometre in cars. Expenditure on transport has increased from about 4 to 7 percent of household spending to about 18 percent in the mid 1970’s before declining to 14 percent, as at present. (Dravitzki &Lester 2009) Self sufficiency has declined. NZ shifted from a reliance on domestic capability for transport of our indigenous sources of hydro electricity and coal and local tram and railway workshops and is now importing both our transport energies and the vehicles of transport. Our indigenous contribution to transport is now reduced to supplying the gravels and aggregates for the roadway. Cars are now central to the lifestyle of almost every New Zealand household. Cars and light vehicles are also a key component of the system by which light goods are moved through our cities. Courier vans deliver internet purchases and the smaller loads of just-in-time restocking are managed with vans and light trucks. Personal vehicles have replaced delivery as the means by which shopping is taken home. Urban form has steadily altered under the influence of cars. Suburban malls and big box retail have moved away from the central business district and away from public transport to locate where it is easy for cars to congregate and where land for parking is cheap. Current Energy Usage in Transport Our current transport energy usage in transport of 221 petajoules is 42 percent of the economy wide energy use of 551 petajoules. Almost all transport energy (99 percent) is from petroleum and only 2 petajoules is from electricity which is primarily for the Wellington suburban system, part of the Wellington bus network and the North Island main trunk section between Palmerston North and Hamilton. Table 1 below shows transport energy by mode for the year ending March 2007. Table 1: Petajoules used as transport energy (EECA, 2009) PJ Transport overall Passenger transport Cars and vans Buses Rail Domestic air Freight transport Road Rail Coastal shipping Road transport Passenger Freight

221 147 133 3.5 0.5 10.3 74 69.4 2.6 1.5 206 137 69

Percentage of transport 100.0 66.7 60.2 1.6 0.2 4.7 33.3 31.4 1.2 0.7 93.3 61.8 31.4



Risks from Peak Oil and Climate Change responses The two phenomena of Peak Oil and Human-induced Climate Change both together and individually create an imperative for early action, with the need to address Climate Change limiting the range of options that we can use to address peak oil. Peak oil is often portrayed as a market phenomenon, as a period when demand will exceed supply. Consequently many believe in the market solution: excess demand will raise prices and promote more discoveries and therefore the problem will be self correcting. However peak oil is a geological not a market phenomenon. Debate continues over the nature of peak oil and when it may occur, but there are many indications of its imminence. Most models show that when peak oil occurs production could fall to only 20 percent of the current level within 50 years. A Canterbury University study (Dantas & Krumdieck 2006) predicts a very high probability of onset by 2020 with voluntary restraint as effective for only a few years and thereafter they predict increasingly severe rationing of any available supplies. This uncertainty as to when Peak Oil will occur therefore places New Zealand in a period of high risk, when the foundations on which our economy depends may quickly become rationed to us both by our own Government and under the energy treaty framework which is in place. A logical risk reduction strategy would be early movement to set an alternate energy pathway in place. Human induced climate change is now accepted by governments around the world as real and the need for action is now. Although NZ’s climate change impact is small, there are several risks for us beyond the actual climate impact. New Zealand could become uncompetitive because we are locked in to high energy paradigms. New Zealand come become an unacceptable trading partner, both of export products and for tourism, because we are perceived as not making an equivalent contribution that other nations have to make. The New Zealand Land Transport Strategy (2008) identifies a mix of measures to cut Transport GHG contribution, such as walking the many short trips less than 2 kilometres, to cycle more, to buy smaller much more fuel efficient vehicles, to double our use of public transport, to use bio-fuels and to consider purchasing electric vehicles. Freight too is targeted with an intended modest shift from road to rail and coastal shipping. In times of uncertainty pursuing a mixed strategy, such as the NZLTS, can be seen as a sound approach. But it also can be argued that it is a hesitant high risk approach. The broad approach blurs the priorities for expenditure and action. For the general population, without any clear priorities, it can translate as a general admonition to “live better” which has little impact on the great inertia of the status quo that has become the entrenched way of life since the 1950s. Further risk arises from the implication of the NZLTS that meeting the short term targets would work to ensure that transport is moving in the right direction, but this may not be the case. A Swedish study (Akerman and Hojer, 2006) identifies that changes such as those contained in the NZLTS can make only medium reductions but deep reductions can only occur with a more fundamental change especially with regards to a much more intensive use of public transport and concurrent changes in urban form. It is better then, to embark on the more fundamental changes from the outset.



Early actions therefore greatly lower risk to New Zealand posed of both Peak Oil and Climate change in at least four ways. In contrast the “steady follower” strategy, which is currently being argued as a low risk strategy, is actually a high risk strategy. Change Via Biofuels and Electric Vehicles The major thrust of the NZLTS (2008) is to address the fuel use and fuel type so that the operation of the current infrastructure becomes more sustainable. We would still operate a large private car fleet and move heavy goods by road. The two main directions of this pathway are biofuels within conventional cars and electricity within electric cars. Biofuels There are many available feedstocks for biofuels. Attention is now moving from food crops to second generation biofuels from residues, waste streams, and biomaterials purpose grown on marginal land. An in-depth analysis lead by Scion (2008 and 2009) identified that New Zealand’s maximum yield of liquid fuels from waste streams, effluent, and residues is about 15 Petajoules. This is sufficient for only about 7 percent of the light vehicle fleet. Scion proposed the possibility that all liquid fuels could be replaced by purpose grown forests which can be converted into either ethanol or biodiesel, as chosen. The yield is approximately 1 Petajoule per 10,000 hectares of forest, so the full 300 Petajoules of liquid fuels would require a forest of 3 million hectares, which is twice the current plantation area and would use about half the available marginal land. This forest would take 25 years to mature. Aggregate costs are not clearly identified. $24 billion is tentatively proposed not including a supporting road infrastructure but it is uncertain how much of forest establishment, land purchase and actual conversion plant infrastructure is included. Offsetting carbon credits for the forest would be available as a benefit. The conversion plant technology, beyond the pilot plant scale, is still developing but the commercialisation effort is occurring in many countries. The Scion analysis of economic viability would require oil to cost US$180 per barrel (exchange rate NZ:US of 0.7) which is 2.2 times the price in August 2010 but only slightly above the high point of July 2008. Such a pathway is attractive. Existing vehicles could be used with little or no modification, our supply of vehicles could still rely heavily on low cost used imports and a fuel distribution network is in place. The current surge of road building would be of use and the roading and urban infrastructure built up over the last 80 years would still be highly relevant. Almost all the beneficial properties of petroleum liquid fuels are retained. Further gains of a 20% energy reduction are available by using high efficiency vehicles and a further 30% energy saving if vehicles are downsized(de Pont, 2009) but the research shows a very strong reluctance to downsize to a car with less than the capability of the currently owned one. (Walton et al 2009) There are significant disadvantages in a liquid biofuels pathway to a low cost low energy society, simply because it is not a low energy solution, nor is it likely to be low cost, and there would be threats to its certainty of supply. The internal combustion engine is a poor user of energy, irrespective of whether the energy is fossil or biofuels. This engine has been viable with cheap and plentiful energy but it is much less viable with expensive manufactured fuels. In addition, about 20 percent of a car’s total



life energy consumption is embodied in the manufacture as calculated over typical current usage. Biofuel will not be low cost for many years yet, at best. The production cost estimated may correspond to approximately $3 per litre, taking the forecast by Scion (2008 and 2009), but the consumer price will reflect the price of oil, if oil is more expensive. Biofuel as a liquid fuel can be readily exported so that its selling price will probably be a premium above the equivalent fossil fuel price and both these prices will rise steeply as oil supplies tighten. (This may indeed be the true role for that vision of biofuels from forests, that of a high value export.) In addition, just as food crop biofuels are available in relation to the main use of that food, the availability of biofuels from forest will also depend on the demand for the alternative use as timber. The future demand for plantation timber is also likely to be high. Production costs are also a risk. The Motonui Synfuel project of the early 1980’s, was also an emerging technology, not yet commercialised on a large scale before. Cost rose many times before completion The long time to establish the forest also puts us on a slow trajectory for achieving greenhouse gas emissions reduction which therefore exposes New Zealand to the risks of slow response identified earlier. Electric Vehicles Individual electric vehicles are also advanced as another way to be much more effective at reducing greenhouse gas emissions within more or less the existing infrastructure. The term “electric vehicle” can be used to cover the range of vehicles from the electric recovery of kinetic energy as in the original hybrid car, a plug-in hybrid which has both a large storage battery for the primary electric motor and a small petrol/diesel engine to recharge this battery, through to full electric vehicles. The technology as it existed in 2008 is extensively reviewed in NZTA Research Report 391 (de Pont, 2009). Full electric vehicles have existed for many years in Europe and Japan, as small light vehicles with limited range, configured for 1 to 2 people, for urban driving only, but do not meet the New Zealand vehicle safety standards. Recent international efforts have been concentrating on making the electric equivalent of the typical family petrol/diesel car. From the literature, (de Pont 2009, Gilbert 2008) it appears the main challenge is the storage battery, so as to give an acceptable range of 200-300 kilometres, and acceptable recharge times. Battery life (number of recharge cycles) is also an issue. Batteries are a very high component of the cost but may need to be replaced about the time of the middle of a normal car’s life. From the New Zealand perspective, to replace all 221 petajoules of liquid fuels used in transport with electric vehicles would require about 60 to 70 petajoules of electric energy, equal to 90 percent of current electricity from renewable sources (hydro, geothermal, and wind). To fuel all the light vehicles would require about 40 petajoules. The New Zealand Land Transport Strategy target of 30 percent light vehicles being electric would require about 13 petajoules, approximately 70 percent of the electricity consumption of the Bluff Aluminium Smelter.



As for the biofuels option, there are issues with electric vehicles. They are likely to be high cost and are unlikely to be readily available at the scale needed for many years. Once again our response to climate change and peak oil would be slow and therefore risky. At conventional car size, they are an evolving technology. The three issues taking some time to fully solve are cost, battery capacity/travel range, and recharge time. The forecast production dates in the 2005-2006 literature are only now beginning to eventuate and any production is still very limited. For a long period, electric vehicles are likely to be only available as new vehicles and prices will likely be high as commercial logic is that they would be likely to be targeted at a premium above conventional equivalents for some time. New Zealand won’t have the same ready supply of used electric vehicles available that we have had for conventional cars. National impacts Much of the current transport literature appears focused on technical capabilities and individual behaviour with respect to the uptake of particular technologies. Largely absent from this transport literature is discussion of the impact on national financial accounts of the collective behaviour, though some does occur in the economic literature. The onset of Peak oil is likely to be accompanied by a period of large price increases, possibly interspersed with cycles of falling prices. Studies point to price increases of two and even four times current prices, that is US$150 to US$250 per barrel compared to today’s (August 2009) current price of US$80 per barrel. (Donovan, et al.) Vehicle prices are also likely to rise because energy costs into production will rise. All countries will be faced with the same challenges as New Zealand of needing to deal with peak oil and respond to climate change treaties and policies, so that high efficiency vehicles, hybrid, or full electric vehicles will be in high demand worldwide. We have benefited in the past from the Japanese premature obsolescence of its used vehicles so that two thirds of our fleet is imported at about 25 to 30 percent of the price which we would pay for the vehicle if new. In the new era, this situation is unlikely to continue but even if it did we would likely face much stronger competition for these desirable fuel efficient or electric vehicles. Expenditure on transport currently averages at 14 percent of the total household expenditure with about half of this on the purchase costs and half on the operating costs and this split being fairly consistent across the income deciles. This is about the same amount that households spend on food. (Statistics NZ: Household expenditure surveys 1979-2006) This increased cost would be absorbed into individual household expenditure through reprioritisation, although the concept of houses moving into fuel poverty has already been articulated. (Dodson & Snipe 2007) However because we now import our total transport capability, higher fuel prices and higher vehicle costs will also impact heavily on the overall economy. Table 2 shows the value of transport imports for June-years 2007 to 2010 and the value of some of our key exports. The table shows transport imports, at NZ$9 to NZ$10 billion per annum, are comparable to the export value of dairy products or about 3 times the value of forestry. Transport costs are equivalent to 25 to 30 percent of our total merchandised exports



so at a national level we are poorly placed to be able to absorb an oil price rise of 100 to 300 percent or a doubling of vehicle prices. Table 2: NZ$ millions of transport imports Year ending Transport Passenger June equipment vehicles BEC521 BEC51 2007 2,037 3,066 2008 1,924 3,187 2009 1,914 2,147 2010 1,051 2,513 NZ$ millions of key exports Year ending Dairy Forestry June Products2 Products2 2007 8,383 3,571 2008 10,787 3,202 2009 11,429 3,522 2010 9,939 3,697 1 Statistics New Zealand, 2010 2 Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2010

Crude oil BEC313 2,980 3,650 3,816 3,838

Petrol and avgas BEC321 1,145 1,337 1,182 1,287

Total transport imports 9,229 10,098 9,059 8,688

Total exports 34,934 40,028 43,028 40,655

This was the situation in the mid-1970s and early 1980s when transport fuel tripled in price in the early 1970s then doubled again in price in the 1980s. The responses of that time, of restricted weekend fuel sales and carless days, were imposed as a form of rationing to assist both the balance of trade and a shortage in supply. The longer term response was known as “Think Big” which aimed for a measure of national self-sufficiency in liquid fuels, including expanding the Marsden Point refinery ($3 billion), the development of the Maui Gas Field, the Synthetic Petrol Plant ($3.5 billion), and the electrification of a section of the North Island Main Trunk railway. The higher prices for fuel and the high costs of the response impacted across the whole economy for a 20 year period until approximately the early 1990s, a period characterised by rates of inflation of 5 to 12 percent (excluding the effects of GST, goods and services tax). This experience appears common for the time and likely to continue in the future. A US study (Early and Smith, 2001) tracked oil prices, inflation, and economic growth in the US economy. The study identified the periods of high oil prices, if sustained, were followed by recession and significant rises in the consumer price index as the effect flowed through into secondary inputs across the economy. This study also showed that volatility in prices had a further significant impact on the consumer price index compared to a steady change scenario which is significant for the coming period where high volatility is expected. An economic modelling of the Malaysian economy using an input-output model identified that a 100 percent rise in the price of oil then coupled with a 100 percent rise in the price of electricity showed price rises flowing across the economy to give an overall impact of a 13 percent price rise, two thirds of which arises from the oil price rise alone. An alternative pathway to a sustainable transport infrastructure In responding to the changes in transport initiated by peak oil and human induced climate change responses, we should seek to do much more than using coping strategies which just



seek to mitigate the worst impacts of the need to change. Instead we should see how we can use the transition for economic advantage, and to recast our way of living to become a more successful and sustainable society. In deciding our response we should have regard to our natural advantages and not necessarily take lead from those countries where vehicle manufacture is a high component of the economy and so have a vested interest in continuing car dominated lifestyles. Cars are a resource intensive lifestyle both high in cost and with a significant component of embedded greenhouse gas emissions which we use them for only shorts periods of each day and they fulfil an essential role only a few times each month. We could live quite easily without car ownership and devise other ways of catering for those few trips where they are actually needed. It is our contention that our goal should be a society in which the major portion of personal transport is by electrified public transport or by active modes and that freight transport is also by electrified railways or by small to medium-sized electric freight vehicles in urban settings with biofuels being used for the residual heavy road freight. In many ways this imitates the transport balance of the 1930s to early1950s but in a much more highly technological way. New Zealand has numerous advantages for this alternative pathway. We have a large potential for generating renewable electricity but rather than automatically using this in electric cars we should reflect on what is the best way to use this in transport to deliver highly liveable cities and towns and economic gain. Most of our cities are small and are well suited to simple public transport systems. Major parts of them evolved in walking and public transport era’s and can therefore readily accommodate their re-introduction. Most of our cities are of a size less than 6 kilometres radius where active modes are highly viable and we have a temperate climate which makes active modes in association with public transport viable and enjoyable year round. A public transport scenario can be implemented quickly. Whereas second generation biofuels and electric vehicles are emerging technologies with substantial delays, 15 to 30 years, before a full deployment would be possible, we have an existing public transport infrastructure already in place so that we can make an immediate start, then, by channelling our investment into it, public transport can be much improved to deliver the three requirements that make any transport system a success: speed, comfort, and reliability(Litman 2008) An early start puts us into a good competitive position with respect to slow start countries such as Australia which has both a coal sector and motor vehicle sector to protect. We also have a rail system, part electrified (550 kilometres), that at its height stretched for more than 5,000 kilometres, reasonably comparable to the current 10,000 kilometres of State highway network. Though this rail network is everywhere reduced and rundown, the tracks and rail reserves still connect almost all of the cities and towns of New Zealand to each other and to our export hubs.



The ability to make an immediate start has its challenges. It removes the excuse for procrastination as we wait for the new technologies to develop. It forces us to confront our disjunctive attitudes of landscapes and waterways too precious to spoil with renewable energy generation, but we maintain a high energy fossil-fuelled lifestyle. There are a number of ways by which a transport system based around electrified public transport enables us to do better particularly with respect to being low cost low energy society. Advantages of electrified public transport over and above those that would accrue from just moving away from imported fuels to biofuels and electricity for cars include: Energy use is lower. Although the electric car has a much better energy efficiency than petrol cars, at 0.4 to 0.7 Megajoules per person kilometre, electric passenger transport can do even better providing loading is adequate. Even the old tram technology of the early 1900s in New Zealand was providing effective transport of 0.37 to 0.4 Megajoules per person kilometre in cities such as Invercargill, Wellington, and Dunedin. The 9 cities with electric trams had a total population of 0.5 million serviced by these tram systems and their total urban travel was delivered by 49 million kilowatt hours (0.2 Petajoules) in 1928. (New Zealand Yearbooks) Some literature indicates modern passenger transport can achieve 0.2 Megajoules per person kilometre. There is a much better investment and use of resources. At current expenditure we would over 20 years invest $60 billion in a private car fleet. We have already discussed that this cost could easily double if the source of low cost used vehicles stopped. Yet we use this resource little more than 5 percent of each day, often less, and use cars for those trips that influence our perceived need for a car and a car of a particular size only several times in a month. In contrast passenger transport continues to be useful throughout the day, typically making 30 round trips in an 18 hour day over an 8 to 10 kilometre route, and carrying many hundreds of people to their destinations. Household budgets benefit. Litman identifies reductions in household expenditure on transport of 30 percent for cities where a quality passenger transport system exists and 50 percent reductions for those living in Transit Oriented Design developments. His analysis includes savings in both fuel and parking charges including offsets in increased taxes to fund the development, and marked decreases in vehicle ownership. As already identified, rising fuel and transport costs will trigger increases across all portions of the household expenditure profile and large transport cost reductions will greatly assist. A public transport based society in conjunction with active modes provides flexibility for future populations. Statistics New Zealand predicts slow growth in all but the major cities The population median age is also expected to increase by nearly 10 years by 2030. These projections are based around a population of about 5 million by 2040. But projections are highly variable and a population of 6 million is also possible as the high forecast. BERL indicate a linear projection of the last 20 years results in a population of 8 million by 2040. With a well developed passenger transport system much of this increase will tend to be accommodated within existing urban boundaries, this growth pattern already being confirmed in cities that developed high quality passenger transport systems in the 1980s and 1990s. A more dense population based around passenger transport nodes has been shown to promote mixed land use and land value uplift and a net gross domestic product growth over and above what would occur if the same population was spread out at the existing density (Bannister



2007). Studies by Ascari and BERL in association with the Auckland Regional Council have identified the emergence of this same trend in Auckland. In addition many of the immigrant groups, especially those from east and south Asia, are already predisposed to a more dense living style, public transport use and are entrepreneurial in establishing the associated small businesses. There are economic growth and health benefits associated with use of passenger transport and active modes. Litman’s analysis (Litman 2010)of the high quality transport areas points to other sources of benefit. Although the use of passenger transport is much greater in high quality transport areas than for non-quality passenger transport areas, the number of walking trips in the areas of high quality public transport had also risen, and by a much greater extent. What this implies is that the potential to use passenger transport, rather than necessarily its actual use, has broken the car dependence cycles and many shorter trips previously made by car are now walked. This higher incidence of walking gives the obvious benefits of a fitter more healthy population with spin-off benefits of reduced health costs but the greatly increased foot traffic sets up the potential for a growth in the service and retail sector with consequent growth in gross domestic product. This is confirmed in New Zealand settings by Ascari and BERL in Auckland studies showing the same trends in gross domestic product growth around passenger transport nodes and by BERL (Norman D & Sanderson K 2010)in Wellington where there is a definite relationships between the quality (as frequency) of the passenger service and the combination of use of passenger transport and active modes. High value immigrants are attracted. It is well recognised that we need to attract skills into the country in many skill categories. A highly liveable low energy society will attract highly educated and skilled immigrants, as well as provide a point of difference for local high level skills that may otherwise be attracted offshore. Additional economic gains can occur. High quality passenger transport allows other benefits such as productivity gains. These can occur by working on the passenger transport journey or as a result of being more productive through arriving at work more invigorated by the journey to work. Progressing the transport infrastructure for a low-cost low-energy society Progressing this low energy low cost transport infrastructure can be achieved by importantly first addressing the energy supply issue, then concurrently redirecting funding away from roading to increase current service levels of public transport, then expand the networks to better serve the cities, which will in turn initiate changes in urban form around these transport networks so as to reinforce the effectiveness of these new forms Develop the Energy Supply: The current energy usage of petroleum in transport of 221PJ in 2007, equates to approximately 55 to 60PJ of electricity. In addition to this the target for electricity to be 90 percent from renewable sources requires a further 60PJ of renewable energy. The New Zealand Energy Outlook in its “renewable only” scenario cites the potential resources available as shown in Table 3 where “High” and “high-medium” denote the likelihood of the source being available at a reasonable cost. (8860MW corresponds to approximately160PJ). The likely additional capacity allows more than sufficient for the 120 PJ needed to meet both renewable targets for electricity and an electricity-based transport system. Sequencing and integrating the development of energy infrastructure and transport



infrastructure will be critical and it likely to need a much more direct involvement of Government in this lead investment than the current market model. Table 3: Likely additional renewable electricity sources Source High probability Hydro 925 MW Geothermal 365 MW Wind 2450 MW Wave 3,730 MW

High-medium probability 1,790 MW 435 MW 4,885 MW 1,750 MW 8,860 MW

The Government Policy Statement on land transport funding (2009/2010-2018/2019) plans to spend approximately $30 billion in total, with 42 percent on new roads and 15 percent on road renewal but only 5% on public transport expenditure via the New Zealand Transport Agency. Separate funding of rail projects, primarily the Auckland and Wellington passenger rail improvements, are $3.2 billion by 2013 only about 20 percent of that planned on new roads. While clearly we need to maintain our existing roads there is little need to build new ones to increase capacity. Existing capacity is sufficient given a likely reduction in vehicle ownership of more than 50%. Much of this funding could therefore be redirected towards the alternate transport system. It has been demonstrated both historically and again in the last 20 years that lead investment in public transport initiates changes in urban form, a trend that will be even stronger in future eras less favourable to car travel. However, this evolution in form, either towards or away from Public transport networks, can take many years (20-40) to evolve, depending on the strength of the economic drivers and political leadership that is provided. If lead investment in passenger transport is to be by technocrats then the tools for economic and social cost-benefit analysis need to be much more accurate. Alternatively we should recognise that the allocation of funding priorities is essentially a political process so we should in a political context, make decisions of how to address this changing future. (Rhema Viathianathan 2009) An immediate start can be made by first increasing services, then establishing networks and this can be coupled with investment in a new fleet/and or modes. All major NZ cities, provincial cities, and large towns have an existing public transport system but which is under-deployed. Primarily it is targeted at the weekday peak time travel to and from work and education. Services are greatly reduced on weekends although trip volumes are similar but purposes different. To be an effective mode of travel, timetable frequency needs to be increased both daily and across the 7 days of the week.(Dravitzki and Lester, 2007). The traditional route structure does not suit the dispersed origins and destinations of car-based systems. New Zealand Transport Agency report 396(Mees et al) Public Transport Network Planning shows that effective systems for current city forms can be devised based on the public transport on an intersecting network, multi-ride ticketing, and building up an approach based around directness, clarity of route and stops, comfort, and speed. This can deliver adequate transport until urban form adapts. Expanding the network could be either by roadbased vehicles, such as trolley buses, and rail-based lines set in the streets as in modern trams and light rail. There is a developed literature that rail-based systems better signal permanence



and encourages both behavioural change and a more public transport orientated urban development about them. Our streetscape also needs to be altered. To ensure speed and reliability the dedicated space needs to be assigned to the passenger transport system and this will constrain the space available for cars. Their space will be further constrained by increasing the available space for active modes. The street style of the 1970s onwards also needs adjustment where it exists and discontinued for areas of further development. This curvilinear system with few interconnections suits a hierarchical road style and land yield, but is unfavourable for active modes, passenger transport, and energy use because the indirect nature increases journey length. Freight Much of the previous discussion has had a focus on passenger transport, in part because the movement of people is that part of transport most prone to impediments that may arise from notions of lifestyle. However one third of the land transport energy (67 PJ) is used by vehicles identified as freight vehicles. This distinction is made because it is suspected that while heavy freight vehicles move a majority of inter and intra regional freight, a major contribution to freight movement within the city is made by light commercial and domestic cars, which collectively move goods from warehouse to retail store, deliver internet purchases, and complete the final leg of the freight journey by moving the goods from store to our homes. This freight movement, especially the heavy freight component is highly vulnerable to both fossil fuel prices, and to availability of supply, since, as with the passenger transport, the preeminence of rail up until the late 1960’s been supplanted by a transport mode in which both vehicles and fuel are imported. Low cost freight, with reduced exposure to volatile fuel prices, high fuel prices and fuel availability are critical to the success of export sector. A major shift to an indigenous fuel such as electricity will have much more opportunity for price stability and deliver economy wide benefits to both the internal economy and the export sector. Railway electrification, first mooted almost 100 years ago, is an obvious choice and is reasonably straight-forward. In the 1980s, 410 kilometres of railway were electrified for a cost then of only $250million which included the locomotives and ancillaries. However a recent study (Cenek et al) has identified another issue which will impede a shift to rail, that of track condition. This study compared to impact on the load of the roughness of the track compared to the impact on the load of the roughness of the road. The comparable ratio of impacts sufficient to cause the container to momentarily lift from the deck of the truck or wagon (an acceleration of 10 metres per second2 ) was of the order of 100:1 of rail : to road. This finding highlights that rail is only suitable for bulk goods such as timber, milk, coal and the like that can withstand the rough journey. A major shift to electrified rail would need to be accompanied by a very significant track improvement and increased sections of double tracking to increase capacity. Electric vehicles are viable for light and medium freight in urban settings. Elsewhere the remaining freight capacity could be delivered by biofuels.



Conclusions  Peak oil and climate change considerations provide specific imperatives to alter our transport infrastructure because of its heavy reliance on fossil fuels. 

Over the past 60 years, New Zealand has altered its land transport infrastructure to be almost totally dependent on imported energy and vehicles, and we are vulnerable to both increased prices and restrictions in supply, both of which are increasingly likely to occur at the same time.



Biofuels and electric vehicles are viable options as alternatives to fossil fuelled conventional vehicles on an individual basis, but they are both likely to reflect the increased world price of oil substitution. Collectively at the national level, New Zealand would have difficulty paying for much higher priced energy or the derived vehicles because transport imports are already of an equivalent value to 25 percent of our merchandise exports.



Entrepreneurs use times of change to improve their position. As an entrepreneurial nation New Zealand should take the opportunity of the necessary changes to build an economically successful, low cost, low energy society and highly liveable towns and cities.



An alternative pathway is to move resources so as to develop a new infrastructure around electrified passenger transport and an electrified freight capability because such a pathway will deliver highly liveable urban forms and generate economic benefits through lowered transport costs and through gross domestic product growth that arises from the processes of densification and mixed land use. Supporting investment is needed to establish the electrical energy supply based on renewable resources. Sequencing and integrating the development of energy infrastructure and transport infrastructure will be critical and it likely to need a much more direct involvement of Government in this lead investment than the current market model..



Lead investment is required. It can be justified by progressively developing the methods and economic tools by which the benefits can be assessed and the limitations of the current predict and supply approach need to be recognised. Alternatively a much quicker pathway can be progressed by a more qualitative approach informed by evidence of overseas experience supported by limited New Zealand experience and implemented via the political decision making process.



There is a substantial body of experience in other countries and starting to emerge in New Zealand that urban form will respond to lead investment in public transport, providing more dense settlement pattern, decreasing car usage and leading to both economic gain and more liveable cities



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Litman, T. (2008) Build for Comfort, Not Just Speed: Valuing Service Quality Impacts In Transport Planning. Victoria Transport Policy Institute: Canada. Available at http://www.vtpi.org/quality.pdf (accessed August 2010) Rhema Viathianathan, An economic critique of urban motorways: the case of the wateview connection in Auckland. Road and Transport Research, Vol18 no3 September 2009 Statistics New Zealand (Ongoing) Overseas Merchandise Trade dataset. Statistics New Zealand: New Zealand. Available at http://stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/industry_sectors/imports_and_exports/overseas-merchandisetrade.aspx (accessed August 2010) Stern, N. (2006) The Stern Review. The Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Thomas, J., Cleland, B., and Walton, D. (2004). Working paper: Review of current measures of New Zealand settlement liveability. Opus International Consultants Central Laboratories Report 520951.01 Wallis, I. (2008) Economic Development Benefits of Transport Investment: NZ Transport Agency Research Report 350. NZ Transport Agency: New Zealand. Available at http://www.nzta.govt.nz/resources/research/ reports/350/docs/350.pdf (accessed August 2010) Walton, D., Thomas, J.A., Smith, K., Lamb, S., Murray, S. (2009) Exploring the match between desired vehicle utility and actual use in different vehicle types. Transportation Research Part A. (Under review, July 2009).



Bridging formal research and informal approaches to enhance civic engagement processes Author

Postal Address Telephone Email

Ducker, Daniel Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Auckland 25 Ayr Street, Parnell, Auckland 1052 0212423382 [email protected]

Co-author

Morgan, Dr Kepa Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Auckland

Category

Embedding sustainability

Keywords

Public participation, engagement, backcasting, phenomenology.

Abstract Enhancing civic involvement in decision making has become one of the dominant strategies for resolving sustainability issues. While a large literature has emerged identifying processes, strategies and criteria a few methodological concerns remain. Most pressingly is the apparent divide between formal, institutionalised engagement and the engaged citizenship which emerges through grass roots movements. Formal research on institutionalised engagement has been extensive, and a number of typologies have been put forward. Research on informal methods of engagement has not had the same attention however. In fact, due to distinct differences between inquiry methods and questions, formal research and ‘informal’ engagement are frequently viewed as adversaries. To help bridge these quite disparate approaches we note two areas which have been seemingly under-valued by present formal research but which are vital to gaining a more comprehensive understanding of engagement: 1) experiential aspects of participation in engagement processes and 2) a broad understanding of long-term success. Following an analysis of several potential research approaches and taking into consideration the possibilities of new online collaborative technologies, we suggest that a combination of phenomenological and backcasting tools may provide one possible bridge between the informal and formal aspects of engagement research and help to clarify these outstanding issues. 1 Introduction Enhancing civic engagement, debate and dialogue has become one of the dominant strategies for attempting to resolving sustainability issues. Including members of the public in formerly government agency dominated areas of the decision making process is claimed to have a range of benefits, from enhancing legitimacy to making better quality decisions (Fiorino 1990). A large number of mechanisms, processes, and instruments have been developed to



facilitate more effective participation, yet establishing what works and what doesn’t remains something of a mystery (Rowe and Frewer 2005). Civic engagement in sustainability issues arises in two fairly distinct ways. First, the bureaucratic source which has increasingly legislated participation to augment democratic aims. For example, environmental agencies across the world are increasingly mandated to conduct participatory exercises prior to the introduction of new policy. Secondly, the more ephemeral source which involves the emergence of collectives and pressure groups around issues of environmental and social justice. Interestingly, while the latter mechanism is probably where the former mechanism originates, it is the former source which has received much greater research attention. One of the implications relates to the research questions asked and the frames used to respond to the inquiry. Irvin and Stansbury (2004) for example, ask “Is public participation worth the effort?” a question which they frame from an environmental agency perspective but could equally have been asked from a citizen perspective. Even apparently innocuous questions such as “How do we know if we are making improvements to engagement processes?” contain framing effects depending on who is asking the question and how they go about answering it. It is fairly obvious that ‘we’ applies less to general citizens than to public administration officials - consider whether a community group mobilised to block the siting of a new waste incinerator would ask such a question? Such groups are much more likely to be researching questions such as “Who else can support our cause?”, “How do we get the agency to listen?” Associated with these different forms of inquiry and different problem framings, different knowledges emerge. Define 2 Formal approaches to engagement Formal research methods exploring engagement emphasise structure and boundary setting, and seek to Refine Design understand relationships between narrowly defined variables. Conceptually, most participation exercises follow a familiar procedure shown in Figure 1. Efforts begin with a decision being made to extend the network Evaluate Implement of individuals participating in a particular inquiry. Such a decision may be made for many different reasons (e.g. legislative mandate, ethical, instrumental benefits predicted etc…). Questions then arise relating to design Figure 1. Cyclical process of public of the participatory inquiry. What exactly do we mean participation design and evaluation by participation? Will participatory input be binding or simply in the form of advice? Who can be involved? Who should be involved? When? How much time, effort and resources can be used to implement the inquiry? How should we proceed? To respond to this final question, a range of criteria (or goals or objectives) are usually identified, setting the stage for the design of processes to facilitate desirable outcomes. Processes are then implemented and evaluation takes place. In this way, evaluation helps enhance the knowledge base for future participation.



Formal approaches are generally concerned primarily with the robust evaluation of participation exercises, to ascertain processes for effective engagement. While formal approaches generally proceed with definitional concerns (e.g. Rowe and Frewer 2005), the literature on engagement has paralleled other discourses by acknowledging the multifarious nature of ‘good’ or ‘successful’ engagement exercises. Instead of “defining” success, researchers have attempted to develop typologies to characterise success according to a range of attributes (e.g. Chess and Purcell 1999; Rowe and Frewer 2000; Rowe and Frewer 2004; Midgley, Foote et al. 2007). Most typologies offer distinctions according to the context or generalisability and means versus ends, as shown in Figure 2. We now explore this general framework more closely.

Process

Global

Local

Specific

Outcome

Figure 2. Generic framework of “success” criteria from research into public participation (adapted from Chess and Purcell 1999; Rowe and Frewer 2000; Rowe and Frewer 2004; Midgley, Foote et al. 2007).

Rowe and Frewer (2004) claim there have been three main approaches to defining attributes of public participation success which vary in terms of the scale of their applicability. The first entails a search for universal criteria, the second suggests universal criteria but related to a subset of participation exercises, and the third disputes the notion of universal criteria, instead prioritising contextual factors agreed upon by project participants. In line with Rowe and Frewer (2004), we refer to these as global, local, and specific criteria. Global approaches aim to determine a universal set of criteria on which all successful participation exercises depend. They are essentially efforts to define a benchmark for comparison and may be grounded in theory or practice. For instance, Webler (1995) in a widely utilised adoption of the Habermassian notion of ideal speech, ascertains global criteria of fairness and competency. Rowe et al. (2000; 2004) in a comprehensive review of the literature define seven criteria which they claim to be universal: representativeness, independence, early involvement, influence, transparency, resource accessibility, task definition, structured decision making, and cost-effectiveness. A variety of other global criteria have been hypothesised, and perhaps unsurprisingly, it has been challenging to find practitioner consensus on a global approach.



Rather than attempting to define wholly universal principles, some researchers suggest criteria aimed at specific modes of public participation. These local success criteria acknowledge the influence of context on success. For instance, Baker et al. (2005) identify requirements for successful public hearings; McComas (2001) provide suggestions to improve public meetings. Empirical evidence from cross case analysis is normally used to support this form of generalisation. Others argue that for both theoretical and practical reasons efforts to define success universally (even within a constrained problem space) are invariably flawed (Webler, Tuler et al. 2001; Webler and Tuler 2006; Midgley, Foote et al. 2007). For proponents of this perspective, authentic ‘success’ can only be defined by participants through a negotiated process, and is therefore case specific, for example, specific objectives such as the production of a document, a recommendation or the making of a decision. Context specific criteria may conflict with universal criteria, and decisions must be made about which criteria take priority when designing the process. This perspective thus acknowledges that differences in power and influence affect the very foundations of any public participation exercise. In addition to success criteria characterised by their degree of universal relevance, researchers have also noted “outcome” and “process” distinctions (e.g. Chess and Purcell 1999). Outcome related attributes correspond to the “results” of participation, and presuppose an endpoint for participatory endeavours. Examples from the literature include “productive real change” (Daley 2007), “influence on decision making”, “mutual learning” (Burgess and Clark 2006), “cost effectiveness” (Rowe and Frewer 2000; Beierle 2002). Process attributes are intended to define how interaction between participants should occur. Examples from the literature include “representation” (Abelson, Forest et al. 2003), “resource accessibility”, “task definition”, “structured decision making” (Rowe and Frewer 2000; Rowe, Marsh et al. 2004). Increasingly, a mixture of ends and means criteria have been advocated to evaluate success (Rauschmayer, Berghöfer et al. 2009). Rigorous formal approaches not only stress the difficulties in defining formal criteria, they also note that determining how to determine criteria is problematic. Methodological questions such as “How does one determine success criteria?”; “How should evaluation take place?”, “Who determines what constitutes successful engagement?”; “When should evaluation occur?” remain significant challenges (Chess 2000). Formal research approaches usually determine success criteria in one of two ways: through theoretical inquiry or by empirical means. Theoretical inquiries begin with commonly accepted principles (i.e. ‘normative’), for example the central democratic tenets of liberty, justice, and equality (e.g. Fung 2007). From these overarching principles operational criteria are be deduced (e.g. Webler’s universal characteristics of fairness and competence). Theoretical inquiries are thus heavily tied to the global approach and are neither time-bound, nor context-dependent. A second form of inquiry into success arises from the practice of environmental engagement and attempts to draw lessons from that practice. Evidence is most overwhelmingly derived



from two sources: scholarly case studies and practitioner reflection (NRC 2008). Practitioner reflection utilises the extensive experience of practitioners over often very different forms of engagement, and provides useful ‘rules of thumb’ or guidelines for attaining success (e.g. Creighton 2005). Several authors however stress that practitioner reflection carries systematic biases, thus should be triangulated with other forms of evidence (Romm 1996; Midgley, Foote et al. 2007; NRC 2008). Scholarly case studies usually consist of reflections from researchers combined with formal evaluations using input from some or all parties involved. They can be very useful for providing evidence for the existence of certain phenomena but are less useful in generating generalised recommendations (NRC 2008). To generalise across cases, multiple case analysis has been increasingly employed. Proponents suggest that by comparing and contrasting individual cases, universal attributes, principles, or recommendations may be derived (Beierle 2002). For instance, Beierle and Cayford (2002) compared 276 cases in an attempt to establish general attributes of successful participation. Other authors however caution this approach, highlighting the difficulties in comparing cases due to extensive contextual variability (Burgess and Chilvers 2006). But contextual variability is just one reason for questioning the empirical approach. A more significant problem occurs where data which may be crucial to understanding success is omitted, either due to common research impracticalities or through research design. One example of this relates to the evaluation of long-term engagement success, important for inquiries into sustainability. While engagement exercises are believed to have long-term benefits, for example better long-term outcomes, improvements in social cohesion etc…, gathering data is impractical and analysis challenging (How does one define social cohesion? How does one distinguish between effects related to engagement and other factors?). Furthermore, most analyses are not designed to explore long term success. Commonly, evaluations are performed immediately after engagement processes have ended, generally for accountability purposes only (Chess 2000). Consequently long-term evaluation data is missing which renders cross case comparison invalid. In addition to relatively narrow methods of data collection and theorising in the formal approach, another rather ironic methodological issue is apparent. It is interesting that while exhorting the benefits of participation, most formal research exploring engagement is rarely undertaken in any way similar to the principles it purports. Theoretical research, literally by definition, lacks any kind of institutional participatory mechanism. Empirical research on the other hand does have considerable scope for participant involvement yet this is rarely utilised beyond canvassing of opinions or values during the data collection phase. For example, Webler and Tuler (2006) in their identification of differing expectations for ‘good’ process involve participants in only two phases the research – participant selection and data collection (see Figure 3). Rowe et al. (2004) evaluate a consensus conference in a comparable manner and similarly offer little justification for the lack of participant involvement. Justification for opening up the research to wider participation is well documented – it can make outcomes more relevant and legitimate, counter researcher biases, and may be more enjoyable overall (Wadsworth 1998). Comparing current research with research which includes stronger participant input may generate some interesting results.



Devise research method

Devise survey questions

Devise participant selection method

Select Case studies

Select participants

Collect opinions

Interpret opinions

Finalise report

Figure 3. Research method of Webler and Tuler (2006). White depicts participant involvement.

3 Informal approaches to engagement In contrast to formal research into engagement, informal approaches tend to be heavily action oriented, unconstrained and creative; learning occurs by doing. These approaches usually carry no ‘research strategy’ as such. Nevertheless they can be immensely successful, as demonstrated by the phenomenal success of Wikipedia and the open source movement. Community level global engagement strategies ‘Transition Towns’ and ‘Pachamama Alliance’ are also an example of this relatively unconstrained process (Atkinson 2010). Instead of beginning with formalised problem framing or boundary definition, informal approaches tend to be interest initiated. In contrast to the instrumental questions offered by formal research approaches, informal research usually begins with a participant focus. Rheingold (2002) for example, begins by asking potential participants “What interests you? What do you care about? What issues get you interested?” Informal approaches are frequently concerned with long-term factors of success. In fact, long-term aspirations of ‘a better world’ are often the primary catalyst for engagement. From this point self-motivational behaviours tend to reinforce participation, since participants play a direct role in exploring and resolving their own questions. Thus engagement begins with rather different motives and uses quite different methods. Informal approaches appear to recognize that engagement is an emotional process, something that more formalized methods fail to take into consideration. Brown and Pickerill (2009) for example suggest that sustaining long-term activism requires deep emotional connections which reinforce common goals between participants. To contrast, Harvey (2009) contends that the formal approaches treat participants as “mere instruments”, “to get a job done as well as possible and according to predetermined and objective criteria”. Framed in this manner misses the importance experiential aspects of participation and the drama and emotion which drive genuine engagement. Rather than placing barriers in the way of participation, informal approaches harness the power of self-organising networks. The most successful informal approaches foster an environment which embraces conflict, ensures rapid and effective feedback and encourages self-reflection. Informal engagement recognises the primary importance of process to ensure that conditions are created for genuine collaboration to emerge. 4 Ways to bridge formal and informal approaches At first sight, formal and informal approaches to understanding and improving engagement appear rather different. Informal approaches appear largely unstructured and emergent. Bridging the formal and the informal requires closer recognition of the experiential nature of engagement and creating stronger linkages between the researcher and the research subject.



To explore experiential aspects of participation, closer attention needs to be paid to the complexities of conversation and the dynamics of interaction (Harvey 2009). In this regard, observational studies offer bridge between the experience of participation and more rigorous interpretations of success. Discourse analysis for instance can provide insight into otherwise invisible power dynamics and the ways in which problems are framed and reframed during discussion. For example Govern (2003) identifies an interesting instance of subtle facilitator imposition on process during a consensus conference in New Zealand. When inquiring into the question: How are the values of Maori going to be considered and integrated in the use of plant biotechnology in New Zealand? One [Maori] speaker argued the question needed to be reconsidered since many ethical issues applied much more broadly. The speaker suggested an alternative set of questions: “Will plant technology bring long-term benefits to Aotearoa New Zealand? Will it reduce food prices enabling more people to afford healthy nutritious food? Will it enable small farmers to continue to farm? Will it improve soil quality, decrease soil erosion, water pollution? Will it improve understandings of the functions of forests—not only as plantations for the timber industry but also as a vital source of food and medicines and recreation?” Govern (2003) noted that rather than responding to these questions, the facilitator kept participants “on track” by directing them back to the original inquiry. Further observational studies may be useful for enhancing knowledge of power dynamics. Observational studies have certain limitations however. Ascertaining long-term effects of engagement is likely to prove challenging, Davies et al. (2005) note that long-term studies are time and resource intensive, their evaluation of a Citizens Council took two years and cost £126,000. Furthermore, observational studies are by their very nature descriptive, applying insights into the development of novel processes may be difficult. Moreover, observational studies attempt to distance the researcher from participants, thus creating a barrier for participant engagement in the research process. Observational studies may prove useful for exploring the power dynamics of short engagement events, but other methods with be required to supplement inferences. Phenomenological investigations offer an alternative set of methods for comparing and contrasting participant experiences. One specific research approach could be to obtain data through personal reflective journals or analysis from engagement participants themselves (Peshkin 1988). Purdue (1999) for instance wrote about his experience as a consensus conference audience member in the form of a play (dramaturgical analysis). Comparing and contrasting the perceptions (or plays) of other participants would have allowed deeper insight into perceived process dynamics than Purdue was able to do on his own. At the time of writing, we have been unable to find any instances of this research being undertaken on engagement processes even though broad application of journal like processes through online blogs is becoming increasingly common. Further exploration is likely to yield useful insight. While phenomenological techniques offer opportunities to explore participant experiences, they do little to enhance participation in the research process itself. Participants remain ‘data sources’, whose views are analysed and exploited by third party researchers. To offer genuine



insight and to avoid translational misinterpretation, including participants in the co-creation of knowledge seems imperative. Again, emerging online technologies such as Google Docs, online forums and Wikis facilitate collaboration and knowledge sharing and represent a fundamental paradigm change in the way that research may be conducted. To consider the long-term effects of engagement exercises demanding practical questions need to be answered. For example, “How can data on long-term impacts derived from participation exercises be obtained?” “How can participation be meaningfully incorporated within the research process over such long time periods?” “How can long-term studies be feasibly conducted?” Additionally, theoretical problems are evident, such as “How can we separate long-term impacts of participation process with other experiential factors (account for halo effects)?” At first sight these questions appear intractable. Long-term case studies are unlikely to be feasible due to difficulties in obtaining long-term participant input. Retrospective analysis offers another alternative, however effects of attentional biases are well-known and difficult to avoid (NRC 2008). Furthermore, participants heavily involved in unsuccessful programs may be unwilling to contribute for fear of being “dragged through the mud again” by other participants, or may be unwilling to “reopen old wounds”. Moreover, due to post-hoc rationalisations, retrospective data may be significantly different to experiential data yielding invalid conclusions (Bennett and Gibson 2006). While retrospective analysis may offer significant insight into the long-term effects of engagement, unavoidable biases mean that distinguishing factors associated with engagement from other unrelated experiences will be difficult. But is there any way to remove or control the effects of peripheral experiences from longterm studies? Clearly it is impossible, human lives are simply too complicated. How then, can a rigorous exploration of long-term success in participatory environmental decision making be performed? While retrospective analysis provides one potentially useful method for inspecting past cases from different perspectives and learning from the experience, it is dependent on the original engagement processes. Unfortunately (or fortunately) engagement processes change rapidly. The introduction of new regulations, new technologies (especially online) and new processes which facilitate engagement render assessing the long term effects of historic processes largely an exercise in futility. More adaptable learning methods which incorporate present knowledge and explore the influence of peripheral factors are desirable. 5

Toward a research method exploring long-term success in participatory environmental decision-making To form a bridge between informal and formal methods of engagement requires deemphasising constraints and status quo biases. Thus it requires forward-looking, transformative or emancipatory methods of discovery (Freire 1970). An increasingly employed strategic planning technique involves exploring desirable futures, then investigating where leverage points exist to achieve that future system state. This process of



backward-looking analysis of the future has been coined backcasting. As explained by John Robinson, one of backcasting’s principal theorists: “The major distinguishing characteristic of backcasting analysis is a concern, not with what futures are likely to happen, but with how desirable futures can be attained. It is thus explicitly normative, involving working backwards from a particular desirable future endpoint to the present in order to determine the physical feasibility of that future and what policy measures would be required to reach that point.” (Robinson 1990). The method of backcasting begins by developing a future vision, in this instance a definition of long-term success in environmental decision making. While future visions have been developed from principles (e.g. Holmberg and Robèrt 2000), in view of the contested nature of success as identified earlier in this article, participatory approaches (e.g. Quist and Vergragt 2006; Frame 2008) would appear to be a more appropriate. From the future vision, backcasting employs backward-chain analysis where necessary preceding steps are identified. Traditionally backcasting has neglected experiential aspects, however we believe that attempts to include more personal elements of analysis may prove fruitful. Asking participants questions which prompt phenomenological inquiry, for example “What do you need to feel in order for [the previous point (e.g. completion)] to occur? What do you need to do? What do you need to see? / What needs to happen? What do you need to hear? What do you need to think?” may generate novel pathways to success. The efficacy of this approach is yet to be tested. We do note that experimental studies such as this have their own limitations. Workshops may create a context for decision making quite different from that of participation processes in practical settings. This altered context may in turn alter the ways in which participants interact and make decisions (Fischhoff 1996). Nevertheless we believe the backcasting/phenomenological method outlined above presents one possibility for a rigorous exploration of long-term success factors and seems to satisfy Webler and Tuler’s (2002) call for innovate methods to develop meaningful theory. 6 Conclusion Following a review of formal methods for defining, determining, and measuring successful participatory decision making we have identified several research areas which appear to have been neglected. Firstly, there appears to be a lack of experiential analysis of participation in action, consequently emotional and dramatic elements of participation seem to have been overlooked. Furthermore, the use of participatory processes for engagement research is severely lacking but we note that new online technologies provide efficient means for widespread collaboration and are likely to provide excellent conduits for exploration. Finally, long-term effects of successful engagement do not appear to have been considered in a rigorous manner. To combat these perceived deficiencies we offer a conceptual framework for a novel approach to participatory inquiry, using backcasting and phenomenological concepts to explore different pathways to long term success.



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The Eco Design Advisor Programme: Supporting the Transformation of New Zealand’s Housing Stock [Lois Easton1, Roman Jaques2] [1Beacon Pathway Limited, PO Box 74-618, Market Road, Auckland 1543, New Zealand. [email protected] ] [2 Building Research Association of New Zealand, PO Box 347, Waikato Mail Centre, Hamilton. [email protected] ] ABSTRACT The Eco Design Advisor Programme has been running in eight local Council areas, since September 2007. The programme provides free, independent, face to face advice on sustainable building options to homeowners, designers, community organisations, building contractors and developers of new homes and in relation to renovations. The programme was set up to address a significant problem in the lack of independent and robust information available to these key market segments and has recently been evaluated in relation to its objectives. This evaluation looked at both the extent and type of interventions, and the incremental effect on the knowledge base on sustainable building within the wider community. This paper will present the programme and the findings from the evaluation to assess the effectiveness of the programme. The paper also discusses the future role of the Eco Design Advisor Programme, its role within Local Government and the ways in which its positive impact on New Zealand’s housing stock can be increased. INTRODUCTION The Eco Design Advisor service was initiated as a result of research undertaken by BRANZ (Christie and Stoecklein, 2005) which indicated that there was a need to provide factual, independent advice on a face to face basis to a wide range of stakeholders on sustainable design and construction in the residential built environment. In particular, this research identified that there were three key obstacles to sustainable residential design which needed to be addressed: 

that there is no stage at which the home owner is directly prompted to make decisions regarding sustainability;



that there is lack of specific technical information and advice; and



that there is a lack of industry expertise combined with a general reluctance to implement sustainability features.

Findings from background research also identified that people are more influenced by personal and first-hand sources (for example, from their own experience or friends/neighbours) compared to other marketing sources (Christie, Jaques, Stoecklein and Mathews, 2007). This is one of the tenets of what is now referred to as community based social marketing. Parallel and independent research undertaken by Beacon Pathway (Easton, Mead, Trenouth, Fullbrook and Arnold, 2006; Trenouth and Mead, 2007) has drawn similar conclusions around influencing factors, as well as supporting a number of key components included in the Eco Design Advisor programme. These supported components included:





Provision of dedicated staff support for sustainable building to provide advice and information;



Free design review for sustainable buildings;



Provision of education/information on sustainable building including funding opportunities;



Active promotion of sustainable building rating tools



Active promotion to building and resource consent applicants, via a simple checklist of ways to make their homes more sustainable.

The principles of an Eco Design Advisor role were a direct response to address the previously mentioned three key obstacles to sustainable residential design. Specifically, the role was intended to: 

Be free, primarily a face to face service



Be independent (i.e. not promote particular products or suppliers)



Provide robust, New Zealand-specific advice based on sound building/social science – mainly supplied via BRANZ



Be part of a national network so that issues and solutions could be shared and discussed



Target a range of particular stakeholders in the residential new build and renovation sector



Provide home visits as part of its core function – for new houses, existing homes and renovations



Provide short phone and email advice as a minor role



Include an education and presentation role for the wider building sector elements



Participate in events such as Eco Days and Home Shows



Contribute as an advocate to and promoter of sustainable design via various media outlets, including local and national newspapers, radio, national and international conferences etc.

The research outlined in this paper looks at the first three years of the implementation of the programme, in eight Councils across New Zealand. In particular it focuses on the efficacy of the programme and the value of its expansion to other Councils across New Zealand. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PROGRAMME The Eco Design Advisor programme was first implemented by way of piloting in three Councils – Waitakere City, Hamilton City and Kapiti Coast District. This initiative was the subject of a BRANZ research programme as reported in a range of research papers and a BRANZ Study report (see Christie, Stoecklein and Jaques, 2007; Christie, Jaques, Stoecklein and Mathews, 2007, and Christie, Jaques, Mathews and Stoecklein, 2007). The majority of the research design for these reports was based on a case control method so that changes caused directly by the EDA could be assessed. That is, designers who did not have contact with an EDA were also surveyed, acting as the control group for designers who did see their EDA. The same applied for the homeowner sample. The target population were New Zealand homeowners and designers who were either considering building new or renovating their existing house, or who were involved with residential housing. After 12 months the research indicated that the



programme was having a number of very positive impacts, and that its expansion was warranted. Following the success of the pilot programme, the service was expanded to a further six local councils between 2007 and 2009: Auckland City, Wellington City, Nelson City, Queenstown Lakes District, Western Bay of Plenty and Tauranga City. The Western Bay of Plenty District/Tauranga City position is one Eco Design Advisor providing a part-time service for both councils while the Queenstown district service was split between two advisors, based in Queenstown and Wanaka respectively. After one year the Wellington Eco Design Advisor resigned from her role and the Wellington City Council decided to disestablish the position. In 2010 the Queenstown Lakes District Council decided to cease funding the programme, while Hutt City Council has recently (in mid 2010) joined with a part time advisor position. A number of other Councils are also investigating employing Eco Design Advisors, although at the time of preparation of this paper, no other positions were confirmed. EVALUATION OF THE PROGRAMME Pilot Scheme Evaluation The pilot scheme was evaluated after the first 10 months of the programme and a number of research papers and a BRANZ study report were developed around this. There were two key components to the evaluation. The first of these related to the physical design changes between the initial evaluation by the Eco Design Advisor of the house design in relation to the cut down BRANZ Green Home Scheme and a followup evaluation undertaken by BRANZ (Christie, Jaques, Stoecklein and Mathews, 2007). The second component focused on the impact of the programme on the values and long-term behaviours of the homeowners and designers who had accessed the programme. The research programme evaluating the pilot had a number of key findings stemming from these two components.



Table 1 below summarises some key findings resulting from the second component – i.e. the values and long term behaviour aspect In this case, ‘behaviour’ was measured as the propensity to incorporate a wide variety of environmentally smart design features and technologies in the house. Example of this are: higher insulation levels, energy, water, and spatial efficiency, good waste management etc. The behaviour comparison was carried out by examining those who had seen an EDA with those who had not.



Table 1 Key Value and Behavioural related Findings From Pilot Scheme Evaluation Findings 

67% of designers and 75% of homeowners surveyed who had had EDA consultations thought the EDA was effective in increasing their knowledge of environmental opportunities



After their EDA consultation 71% of participant homeowners surveyed believed that incorporating eco design practices into their home was worthwhile; 69% believe it will benefit their lifestyle; 56% believed it is easier to include sustainable features than they had previously thought; and 49% believed that eco design features will increase the value of their house



After their EDA consultation: 64% of designers believed eco design practices are more important than prior to meeting the EDA; 54% believed it would benefit their career more; 54% believed that eco design features would be more attractive to clients; 53% believed it was a more essential component of design; 46% realised eco design features were easier to include than they had previously thought.



Where designers had seen an EDA 43% of their environmental behaviours were attributed to seeing the EDA; and where homeowners had seen an EDA an 18% improvement in incorporating environmental technologies in the house was observed.



The longer the amount of time the EDA spent with a designer, the more significant the behaviour change which occurred



Longer home visits (greater than 2 hours) didn’t result in any significant increase in the behaviour change of the homeowners.



Over 90% of homeowners and over 80% of designers said they would recommend the scheme to others.

Pilot Scheme Key Conclusions As a result of the findings of the evaluation, it was concluded that the programme was performing to a high degree of success, and that expansion to a greater number of Councils was warranted. In particular it was concluded that:  There was a very high degree of satisfaction from participant homeowners and designers with the service offered;  The service was having a significant impact on the values and long-term behaviours of the participant homeowners and designers;  The service was resulting in significant improvements to the designs and performance of the dwellings which had been the subject of in-depth consultations; and  The method of delivery of the service (free consultations including in-home visits) was an effective method of achieving these outcomes. 2008 Evaluation BRANZ continued to collect data through the post pilot phase – November 2007 to June 2008. This unpublished information has been made available to Beacon and is reported below. The year two follow up survey aimed to extend on the encouraging Year 1 results to investigate how the scheme can be more effective in targeting a wider audience – and not just those already inclined towards sustainable housing. Specifically, its aim was to: •

establish how the EDA scheme can target different audiences/market segments;

•

gain an understanding of the type of people who are visiting an EDA and their motivations for visiting;

•

gain feedback on the effectiveness of the service (for example, marketing, and information provision);



•

gain an understanding of the perceived value of the service.

2008 Findings The survey found that, in relation to participant’s values and perceptions of housing and sustainability, reducing energy use and achieving suitable heating and warmth benefits were consistently the main concerns. The personal one-to-one nature of the meetings and the opportunity for on-site meetings was identified as the key factor in the success of the scheme. In light of this it is considered that one-to-one discussions should continue to be an important feature of this scheme. While there are a prevalence of websites available to New Zealand residents for information on ecodesign, the EDA programme is unique in that it provides free, one-to-one in-home independent advice. The survey also found that the material being covered by the EDAs appears to be on-track with what the public are wanting, although it was mentioned that further information on trusted suppliers and installers is still needed. The desire for information on trusted suppliers and installers has also been identified by Beacon research (Trotman, Frederickson, Smith and Greenaway, 2007). A tension exists however in providing independent advice versus specifying certain products and suppliers. The large majority (74%) of respondents reported that they were satisfied with the information they received, and this gives reasonable grounds for not extending the programme into supplier and installer recommendations. Of the survey respondents who had already seen an EDA, 90% said they would use the service again. Further, 95% of respondents said they would recommend this service to others. 2009 Evaluation This section outlines the evaluation undertaken of the expanded scheme by Beacon Pathway during December 2009. This is based on unpublished information collected by BRANZ. The second part of the evaluation looks at the overall programme and considers how well it has met the objectives identified in its inception. It considers information which has been collected by the Eco Design Advisors through the life of the programme, and also the overall picture in terms of the BRANZ data. The evaluation undertaken to look specifically at the performance of the programme in relation to the key outcomes sought, as defined in the funding applications to central and local government agencies and identified in supporting documentation for these. Table 2 identifies the outcomes which were able to evaluated as part of this study. The evaluation of the other outcomes sought from the programme will require the implementation of a planned follow up survey with participants, and will be the subject of future reporting. Table 2 Key Outcomes Looked at in 2009 Evaluation and Source of Information Used to Evaluate These Outcome Sought

Source of Information

1) Better streamlined consent process for sustainability options within the council consent process

EDA records of improvements made

2) Improved and strengthened network within the design and building industry around sustainable design

Records of Media Articles, Presentations and Networking Events



Outcome Sought

Source of Information

3) A representative number of EDAs trained in all areas of well targeted, practical, achievable eco design concepts and implementation

Training records

4)

EDA records of consultations

Each Eco Design Advisor undertaking an annual quota of 450 “events” – a combination of full consultations, short consultations and presentations to groups of stakeholders

CURRENT STATUS Improved/Streamlined Consent Processes A number of initiatives to improve or streamline consent processes have been undertaken within the participant Councils for more sustainable options. Primarily these have focussed around more sustainable hot water systems, and in particular solar hot water systems. One reason for this, and one of the benefits of the programme nature of the Eco Design Advisor Role, is that streamlined processes developed in one Council have been able to be picked up and adapted for use in other EDA participant Councils creating efficiencies for such projects. Improved/Strengthened industry network A wide range of industry events and presentations have been undertaken by the Eco Design Advisors with a total of approximately 1300 networking events and approximately 900 presentations undertaken over the 2007-2009 period. While each Eco Design Advisor is not capturing the information in an identical fashion, it is clear that networking and presentations on sustainable building are a critical part of the role being undertaken by the EDAs. Over 40 media articles and presence on at least 59 websites have been identified over the 2007-2009 period about the programme. Over time and as the reach of the programme has increased, media coverage has extended. As a generalisation, media coverage is generated by proactive measures by the EDA (e.g. issuing a press release or even drafting an article) whereas website coverage is generated as a response to market awareness of the programme. Representation and Training The network of Eco Design Advisors has an uneven geographic spread with a strong presence in the North Island, but less so in the South Island. Currently about a quarter of New Zealand’s population is covered by the programme. Significant gaps in the service have been identified in particular in the major Christchurch and Dunedin population centres, and in the eastern and western mid North Island areas. While currently the Auckland subpopulations of Manukau, North Shore, Papakura, Rodney and Franklin do not have access to an EDA programme, with the creation of the Auckland Council, in theory this will become available to them. In practice however, given the large number of consultations already undertaken by the two Eco Design Advisors within the Auckland Region, it seems likely that waiting lists could arise for the programme in the new Super City if it is not further resourced. Training activities have been a core part of the central administration of the Eco Design Advisor programme by BRANZ. Conferences for the programme, with intensive workshops and training are held twice a year. In addition fortnightly conference call discussions, and an online forum enables the EDAs to network with each other, keep up to date with new initiatives, and pass on technical information of use to the wider group.



DISCUSSION Area of Focus Through discussions with BRANZ, the Eco Design Advisors and their managers through the development of this evaluation, it is clear that the programme as originally set up, has had a strong focus on energy efficiency. This is also reflected in the mix of researcher funders for the early stages of the project. Energy and energy efficiency are not however areas of primary responsibility of local government, and some Councils report a perceived mis-match in funding, that they are being asked to support a service which delivers on central government, rather than local government, responsibilities. This is not an issue with all of the EDA programme councils, however. For Kapiti Coast District, Tauranga City and Waitakere City, water efficiency in particular is a core focus of the programme, reflecting both the local community issue, and the responsibility of local government for water supply and wastewater disposal. Alongside this construction waste reduction is also a focus area which resonates strongly with local government responsibilities, and some EDAs also place a strong emphasis on the programme. The issue for the programme therefore is how to reflect both the local concerns and needs of their local Council funder and local community within the wider ambit of the programme. This should not be a significant issue, as sustainable building encompasses a wide range of aspects, not just water and waste, which are primary responsibilities for local government. It may however be that a greater range of support resources need to be developed for the programme on these key focus areas. Beacon Pathway has been undertaking a significant programme of water research over the last three years and this information could be developed to better support the EDA programme, supplementing the BRANZ work in this area which has not had the same level of resources assigned to it. Ongoing Training and Support It is clear that one of the strengths of the programme is its national brand and linkages. Significant benefit in terms of skills and strength of recommendations is gained from the national networking which occurs through regular conference calls, the website and biannual conferences held. Geographic/Demographic Gaps in Coverage There are several notable demographic gaps in coverage of the programme, but in particular the South Island is poorly represented. This is ironic given the original energy efficiency focus – as South Island homes are likely to deliver significant benefits in terms of energy efficiency if retrofitted or built to higher performance standards. Christchurch City Council has proposed to appoint an EDA, and the establishment of a Christchurch EDA is strongly endorsed. Linkages with Other Sustainable Building Programmes •

Links with Sustainable Living, the Home Energy Advice Centres, and several tertiary environmental building courses have already made.

•

BRANZ and Beacon are both providing technical support to ensure a high speed of information transfer on latest sustainable building research findings.

•

The New Zealand Residential Rating Tool (recently branded homestar*) creates a new opportunity and potential link for the EDAs. EDAs are in a very good position to become accredited assessors for the scheme, as it is very well aligned with their core role.



Given the training in assessment and advice that homestar* assessors will have, the EDA’s will be in a considerably better position to provide in-depth advice. Homestar* could also potentially afford a small funding stream for EDAs perhaps even a cost recovery service. CONCLUSIONS The EDA is a highly recommended sustainable building program that seems to be resulting in actual behavioural change and demonstrating a need for independent building advice on a wide range of environmental issues. However, the extent of its impact cannot be easily gauged at this time, as it would require specific research to analyse both the records collected by the EDA’s and follow up visits to previous consultations. Ideally, further investigations should determine the extent to which consultations have driven homeowners/builders/designers to modify their building and renovation work to incorporate the modifications that the EDA’s suggested. The scheme also needs to be extended to cover areas in New Zealand which are under-represented currently, especially in the South Island. With the release of the environmental rating tool homestar* in late 2010, the demand for the EDA service is likely to be considerably higher, given the independent nature and higher skill-set of the EDA’s, compared to ‘standard’ homestar* assessors. REFERENCES Christie, L., & Stoecklein, A. (2005). ‘Sustainable Design Decisions: Processes, influences, values of the homebuilder’. Architectural Science Association (ANZAScA), Wellington, 2005. Christie, L. Jaques, R. Stoecklein, A. and Mathews I. (2007) The Role of an Eco Design Advisor – How Effective Has it Been? Proceedings of the SB07 New Zealand Conference, November 2007, Auckland. Christie, L. Jaques, R. Mathews, I. and Stoecklein, A. (2007) The Eco Design Advisor Scheme Evaluation. Draft BRANZ Study Report. Christie, L. Stoecklein, A. and Jaques R. (2007) The Eco-Design Advisor: An Independent Resource for the Building Industry. Proceedings of the NZSSES Conference, 20-23 February 2007, Auckland. Easton, L., Mead, D., Trenouth, C., Fullbrook, D., & Arnold, P. (2006). ‘Auckland City Council Sustainable Building Barriers and Incentives’. Report Prepared for Auckland City Council and Beacon Pathway Limited. Trenouth, C. and Mead, D. 2007. Local Government Sustainable Building Barriers and Incentives: Case Studies. Report PR201 for Beacon Pathway Limited, Auckland. Trotman, R., Frederickson, B., Smith, A. and Greenaway, A. (2007) Qualitative Study: Perceptions of Sustainability and Uptake of Sustainable Solutions by Householders. Report MT105 for Beacon Pathway. Available online at www.beaconpathway.co.nz/furtherresearch/article/reports_and_presentations_market_transformation



Foudazi, Mrs., Fahimeh, M'Rithaa, Dr., Mugendi Department of Industrial Design, Faculty of Informatics and Design, Cape Peninsula University of Technology PO Box 652, Cape Town 8000, South Africa, Office: +27-21-469 1027, Fax: +27-21-469 1002

Sustainable Solutions for Cooling Systems in Residential Buildings Case Study in the Western Cape Province, South Africa Intended category: Evolutions in Technology

Abstract The energy demand in building sectors for summer air-conditioning is growing exponentially due to thermal loads, increased living standards and occupant comfort demands throughout the last decades. This increasing consumption of primary energy is contributing significantly to emission of greenhouse gases and therefore to global warming. Moreover, fossil fuels, current main sources of energy used for electricity generation, are being depleted at an alarming rate despite continued warning. In addition, most air-conditioning equipment still utilise CFC’s, promoting further destruction of our planet’s protective ozone layer. Concerns over these environmental changes, have begun shifting the emphasis from current cooling methods, to ‘sustainable strategies’ of achieving equally comfortable conditions in building interiors. Study of ancient strategies applied by vernacular architecture shows how the indigenously clean energies to satisfy the cooling need were used. One of the most important influences on vernacular architecture is the macro-climate of the area in which the building is constructed. Mediterranean vernacular architecture, as well as that of much of the Middle East, often includes a courtyard with a fountain or pond; air cooled by water mist and evaporation is drawn through the building by the natural ventilation set up by the building form, and in many cases also includes wind-catchers to draw air through the internal spaces. Similarly, Northern African vernacular designs often have very high thermal mass and small windows to keep the occupants cool. Not only vernacular structure but also the recent development in solar and geothermal cooling technologies could be used to the needs for environmental control. Intelligent coupling of these methods as alternative design strategies could help developing countries such as South Africa toward sustainable development in airconditioning of building. In this paper, the possible strategies for sustainable cooling in residential buildings of Western Cape, South Africa are discussed. Keywords: cooling systems; passive energy; residential buildings; South Africa; sustainability; vernacular architecture.

1. Introduction In industrial countries, buildings account for 25-40% of total energy consumption in society. The most of this portion is consumed during the building’s operational phase, for heating, cooling and lighting purposes which is contributing to significant amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission (UNEP, 2007). If developing countries such as South Africa, one of the highest emitters of the Greenhouse gases per capita (UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2002) (Fig. 1), follow the same unsustainable consumption path as developed countries, the consequences will be significant (UNEP, 2007) (Fig. 2). In South Africa, air conditioning accounts for a significant portion of the electricity in most offices, hotels, hospitals and other facilities. In some cases air conditioning accounts for almost 50% of the monthly electricity bill (Energy Reduction, n. d.). Department of Minerals



and Energy studies indicate that in the Cape Town summer, air-conditioning accounts for up to 74% of electricity consumption in office buildings. Eskom (the national electricity provider) has called upon all consumers to use electrical equipment specifically airconditioners more efficiently (Eskom, n. d.). Although the main focuses is still on office building in South Africa, but cooling demand in houses due to thermal loads, increasing living standards and occupant comfort demands, is increasingly growing. In addition, air conditioning equipments still utilize CFC’s, promoting continued destruction of our protective ozone layer.

Fig. 1: Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions for selected African countries in 1997 (UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2002)

Fig. 2: After 2020 major parts of CO2 emission will come from developing countries (UNEP, 2007)

Beyond the environmental implications, the human cost of over-conditioned spaces is considerable. In today’s technological society, the main activities of living and working take place in an enclosed space in which people spend more than 90% of their time (Jenkins et al., 1990), and in more than 40% of the enclosed space, people suffer from health-, comfort- and safety related complaints and illnesses (Dorgan Associated, 1993) as a result of the ‘sick building syndrome’. The emergence of the building-related sickness among building occupants can significantly reduce comfort and productivity (Dorgan Associated, 1993; Bonnefoy et al., 2004). South Africa as a developing country with about HIV positive population trying to improve health and living standards of population needs more consideration over these problems. Since South Africa has signed the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol Mid 2002 (UNIDO, 2003), it needs to take into consideration the promoting sustainable development by implementing policies and measures to, among others, enhance energy efficiency, protect and enhance sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases, increase the usage of new and renewable forms of energy and of advanced and innovative environmentally sound technologies. Applying renewable energy sources as an alternative for summer air-conditioning not only



has an extensive potential for South Africa to meet its commitments but also it will have a significant contribution to improve living standards of its population. Useful ancient energy strategies for natural cooling of buildings during summer that have been used for centuries in various parts of the world are now being re-examined and reengineered in developed countries to fit within modern building forms and materials. By modifying and applying of these strategies compatible with weather condition of South Africa, people were able to live in comfort with less electricity consumption for airconditioning systems. In this paper, on the basis of Western Cape climate, ancient cooling strategies as well as new sustainable technologies applied for similar conditions will be reviewed. Finally, we will explore proper strategies for Western Cape as a case study.

2. Climate condition of Western Cape Western Cape climate conditions generally range from Mediterranean in south-western corner to moderate coast in southeast and semi arid plateau in north and northeast. Overall, its summer climate is warm and dry with low rainfall prevail (Fig. 3). Near the coast, average summer temperature during the day is 27°C which can exceed up to 37°C. Inland temperatures are some 3-5°C higher (South Africa climate and weather, n.d.). Moreover, it should be noted that according to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, world temperatures could rise by 1.1 to 6.4 °C during the 21st century (Solomon et al., 2007). In our study, we will consider on two general climate of this area here are mostly populated; warm and dry summer along the coast and warm to hot with dry summer at inland area.

Fig. 3: Western Cape is distinguished by red boundary in South Africa map. Different colours represent different type of climates as shown in legend.

3. Ancient cooling strategies Since antiquity, mankind reacted to his environment and used his faculties to develop strategies for obtaining thermal comfort in house. In that era, vernacular architectures were forced to devise ways to create comfortable internal conditions in summer time with only



natural sources of energies and physical phenomena. The strategies relied on utilising energy from the sun and wind by the innovative architectural structures (Fathy, 1986). Since these solutions depended on the climate they were quite different from one another. To simplify the study, the various features and elements of buildings which devised as a useful cooling strategies, were divided into three major groups: basic design, construction materials, and architectural elements. 3.1. The basic design 3.1.1. The inner courts and summer quarters The common feature of houses built in hot and arid climate such as Middle East was their inward orientation (Golany, 1980). Components of building were properly located relative to the Inner courts (Fig. 4). The main summer sitting-room opening directly faced onto the court through the porches. The south rooms were suitable for summer use since they faced the northern cool breeze and had also less exposure to the direct sun rays in summer (Fig. 5). The self shading courts and its component- pound, fountains, vegetations, porches- played an important role in keeping cool and ventilating of the summer quarters (Safarzadeh, 2005). It should be noted an unshaded court has higher temperatures than out door environment, especially where the width of the court is large relative to the building height (Givoni, 1986). However, studies (Rajapaksha, 2003, Safarzadeh, 2005) have shown potential of natural ventilation of building by court yards.

Fig. 4: Inward orientation of house, no windows onto out side

Fig. 5: The main summer room, Iran

3.1.2. High ceilings and the use of doomed roofs Meeting and sitting rooms at the summer quarters had higher ceilings, in some cases equivalent to two regular floors than winter quarters (Golany, 1980) (Fig. 6). In ancient time due to the structural restrictions, domed shape roof was developed in Middle East, Africa as well as some Mediterranean villages. This type of roof supplied better thermal comfort due to the higher ceiling. High ceilings provide more spaces where stratification of air allows the occupants to inhabit the cooler lower levels (Lechner, 1991) (Fig. 7).

winter quarter

summer quarter

Fig. 6: Difference in the height of ceilings for thermal comfort at the summer and winter quarter, Kashan, Iran



Fig. 7: Large mass and high ceilings houses, Apulia, Italy

Sometimes vents were located at the top to improve ventilation. When out side wind flows over a curved surface, its velocity increases and its pressure decreases at the top of the surface. The decrease in pressure at the top of the domed roof induces the hot air under the roof to flow out through the vent (Bahadori, 1978) (Fig. 8).

Fig. 8: Airflow patterns through a doomed roof air vent

The most dramatic example of this kind of dome is the Borujerdi houses, in Iran (Fig. 9). The beautiful and specific design of dome and its vents not only improve air circulation but also provided proper light without direct penetration of sun rays. The other benefit of domed roof is that during the day it received less solar radiation than flat roof based on the unit areas, while radiation cooling of dome at night was more than flat ones since the full hemisphere, wider area, saw the night sky. Thus, radiant heating is minimized while radiant cooling is maximized (Lechner, 1991).

Fig. 9: Specific design of domed roof with vents, Broujerdi house, Kashan

3.2. Construction materials and techniques In hot-dry and Mediterranean climates, buildings usually constructed in light surface colours and massive construction, such as adobe, brick, or stone (Lechner, 1991). These massive materials not only retarded and delayed the progress of heat through the walls and roof but also acted as a heat sink during the hot summer days. the mass cooled at night and then acted



as a heat sink the next day. Although wood did not use as a basic material in construction but it was utilised for doors, windows, decorated screens and furniture. In Iran, Windows usually were decorated with colour glasses which not only used as statistic aspect but also minimized solar penetration and heat gain through the windows (Fig. 10). Usually, retractable bamboo shades which could be adjusted to either exclude or admit solar radiation hanged outside windows (Fig. 11).

Fig. 10: Colure glasses windows

Fig. 11: Retractable bamboo shades

Earth sheltered building was another technique which was an effective barrier to the extreme temperatures (Fig. 12). The deep earth is usually near the mean annual temperature of a region, which in many cases is cool enough to act as a heat sink during summer days (House & House, 2004).

Fig. 12: Earth sheltered houses, Setenil, Spain (House & House, 2004)

3.3. Architectural elements 3.3.1. Evaporative cooling elements To cool the dry and hot breeze, vernacular architectures utilised the basic principle that contact between cool water and hot dry air produces evaporations and results in a heat loss to surrounding areas. Thus, they located devices such as fountains (Fig. 13) and Selsebils in courts and summer quarters. Selsebil is a slanted slab on the wall upon whose surface the water gurgles down and terminating in a small pool underneath (Fig. 14). While the water slides down, it evaporates and helps the room to cool down. Early examples of selsebils were traced back to the thirteenth century in the old city of Diyarbakir, Turkey (Golany, 1980). Effective Evaporation requires a continuous flow of air which was easily available in open courts over the central pool and fountains. However, in covered halls the circulation of air had to be enhanced through the use of wind trap elements.



Fig. 13: Fountains and pound at the court and in the main sitting room

Fig. 14: Selsebil in sitting room

3.3.2. Wind traps elements To maximize cooling ventilation through the air movement in hot and arid zones ingenious devices for catching the wind were designed. Dependent on wind direction and site, these devices are strikingly different in appearance. When there was strong prevailing wind direction, different types of wind scoops which all aimed in the same direction were designed (Lechner, 1991). These devices are open shad facing cool breeze and located at a high point in the house. The roof of shad is inclined at an angle designed to divert the wind downward toward the air shaft and directly to the rooms and corridors. As seen In Fig. 15, 16 the different design of wind scoops in Egypt and Pakistan were devised to catching prevailing winds.

Fig. 15: Malqaf, a Cairane house, Egypt (Fathy, 1986)

Fig. 16: The wind scoops in Hyderabad, Pakistan

When there was no prevailing wind direction, wind-catchers with many openings were used as in Persia and other Persian Gulf countries (Battle McCarthy Consulting Engineers, 1999). These towers rise above the roof and are divided by internal blades, which create separate air ducts (Fig. 17).



Fig. 17: An example of wind-catcher and internal blades wind-catchers

At the windward side, air is leaded through the channels to the interior space of building. At the leeward side, warmed interior air will be sucked out (Fig. 18). In the absence of wind, the towers continue to ventilate rooms through stack effect (A’zami, 2005) (Fig. 19).

Fig.18: Traction and suction in wind-catcher

Fig. 19: Air movement during the day and night by stack effect

The smart combination of domed roof, wind-catcher and fountain in some cases in Iran which back about 900AD (Bahadori, 1978), were instrumental use to create better thermal comfort for occupants of building (Fig. 20). In some cases architectures used their talent and experience to create a unique shape (Fig. 21).

Fig. 20: Emrani House (left), Borujerdi House (right)



Fig. 21: Some unique design of wind-catcher in Iran

The Mashrabiya was another popular wind trap feature in Arabic Middle East homes. These bay windows were used as a sitting place where the users would get maximum exposure to the cool breeze while the delicate wood screen kept most of the sun out (Fig. 22).

Fig. 22: Mashrabiya screen over a window in Coptic Cairo, side view (Golany, 1980)

4. Modern eco-air-conditioning systems 4.1. Modern wind traps Bansel et al. (1994) and Bahadori (1994) describe modern designs of ancient wind catchers which use control dampers to control volumetric flow rate and solar collectors to enhance the stack effect for exhausts at purposefully designed exits (Fig. 23). A study (Bahadori, 1994) investigated a wind catcher coupled with evaporative cooling columns which can increase the cooling potential (Fig. 24). They also provide detailed methodology for designing and sitting it.

Fig. 23: Wind-catcher with solar collector

Fig. 24:Wind-catcher with cooling columns



Monodraught wind-catcher was launched in 1990. Fig. 25 shows the basic operational principles of its system. The system is normally divided into four quarters which run the full length of the body and become air intakes or extractors depending on wind direction thus making it less vulnerable to periodic wind changes and negating the need for any possible rotation to face the wind. It has also weatherproof louvers protect the interior of the building and volume control dampers to moderate flow (Khan et al., 2008). A recent improvement in the this windcatcher design is the Monodraught SolaBoost seen in Fig. 26 when the solar panel reaches 14 V an intelligent power control device will boost the power to the fan to 25V resulting in a 250 % increase in the speed of the fan and hence the flow rate (Monodraught, n.d.)

Fig. 25: Operating principle of Monodraught

Fig. 26: Recent design of Monodraught, SolaBoost

The new design of wind scoops can rotate about an axis so as to always have the opening facing the incident wind. These types significantly were found to be better at producing positive pressure than suction cowls which back the wind and develop negative pressures for air extraction (Adekoya, 1994).A good example of a rotating wind scoops used for natural air conditioning is at the ICI chemicals visitor centre in Runcorn, UK (Khan et al., 2008) (Fig. 27).

Fig. 27: Public sector building in Wales



4.2. Geothermal cooling systems Geothermal cooling is a process by which shallow ground is utilized within a system to regulate temperature. The upper 10 feet of the earth's surface holds a stable temperature between 10° to 16°C. This stable temperature is harnessed, using a geothermal device, to draw heat energy out of a system and thus transfer the cool temperatures into a warmer area. This device is connected to a loop of copper tubing or high-density polyethylene, which is literally buried underneath the earth's surface. This loop contains a refrigerant that is pumped through the tubing, exchanging the warm energy in the building with cooler energy in the ground and acting almost like a heat sink. This process is known as direct exchange and is very effective at keeping a location at a stable cool temperature (Earth to Air, n.d.). 4.3. Deep sea water cooling On 2006, the world’s first commercial deep seawater air-conditioning system opened for hotel business at the Intercontinental Resort and Thalasso Spa Bora-Bora, French Polynesia. The designer of this project was Makai Ocean Engineering, Inc. of Hawaii (Makai Ocean Engineering, n.d.). The new hotel’s air-conditioning pipeline supplies seawater with 5°C temperature from 900m sea depth to eliminate typical air conditioner machinery driven by large electric motors. The seawater passes through a heat exchanger to cool the hotel-wide freshwater cooling network. By using the naturally cold water, the hotel’s 15 kilowatt seawater pump provides cooling that would otherwise consume 300 kilowatts of electricity. It is claimed that this strategy results in 90% saving of annual electrical savings. (Intercontinental Bora Bora resort and thalasso, n.d.) A similar project has been done in Maldive on 2008 to replace the electrical air-conditioner with deap sea water cooling systems. This plant is expected to reduce 20% of power consumption in Sovena Fushi resort (Maldives Resort Spa and Accommodation, n.d.). The lower saving in power consumption in this case compared to Bora-Bora resort could be due to higher temperature of deep sea water of 11°C. It is obvious that deep sea water is a commercial scale strategy that is difficult to be employed for individual residential buildings.

5. Proposal strategies and concluding remarks for Western Cape Although each site needs to be analyzed in terms of its micro-climatic features, a general rule for energy efficient building in Western Cape as follows: -

Since the case study is located in the southern hemisphere, the best orientation of the building is along an east west axis where the predominant façade faces north, maximizing the potential natural lighting and thermal regulation.

-

The east and west facades should be smaller to minimize the associated heat gains from the low angle morning and afternoon sun, whilst the north and south facades are elongated to ensure adequate day lighting and natural ventilation.

-

Building openings should be of suitable size and should be orientated to enable natural airflow from the windward to the leeward side. A building should not have too deep a plan and should be relatively free of major obstructions within the interior.

-

Heat exhausted systems, such as solar chimneys and roof ventilators, allow internal heat to rise and escape from the building. At the same time fresh air is drawn into the building



through openings in the building envelope. This modern strategy is more efficient than ancient domed roof shape and high ceiling. -

Wind catcher or wind scoop can drawn fresh air into the building and provide comfort thermal for occupants of building, especially in the case of keeping close windows at night because of safety issues in SA.

-

Windows can be coated with sun control film to reflect incoming sunlight.

-

Retractable awnings or fixed overhangs over north-facing windows can provide complete shading from the direct sun during summer, and still enable solar penetration in winter.

-

Operable shutters which can be adjusted at will, to either exclude or admit solar radiation, can intercept solar radiation reflected from the ground, in addition to intercepting the direct sun radiation.

-

shrubs on the sunny side of the house elevate humidity level as wall as deciduous shade trees close the windows prevent solar penetration at summer while enable solar penetration in winter.

-

Geothermal cooling systems for the residential building with big yard can be used in combination with wind catcher

-

Since the Atlantic Ocean has a great potential for deep sea water cooling due to its low temperature, big hotels and malls close to this ocean could utilize a central deep sea water cooling system with bearing in mind to not disturb the tourism face of the city.

Refrences Adekoya, L.O., Wind energy end use: performance characteristics of a rotating suction cowl, Renewable Energy 2 (1999) 385–389. A’zami, A. 2005. Badgir in traditional Iranian architecture. International Conference “Passive and Low Energy Cooling for the Built Environment”, Santorini, Greece Bahadori, M.N., Passive cooling systems in Iranian architecture, Scientific American 238 (1978) 144-154. Bahadori, M.N., Viability of wind towers in achieving summer comfort in the hot arid regions of the Middle East, Renewable Energy 5 (1994) 879–892. Bansal, N.K., Mathur, R., Bhandari, M.S., A study of solar chimney assisted wind tower systems for natural ventilation in buildings, Building & Environment 29 (1994) 495–500. Battle McCarthy Consulting Engineers. 1999. Wind Towers, Academy Editions, John Wiley & Sons, Italy. Bonnefoy, X.R., Annesi-Maesano, I., Aznar, L.M., Braubachi, M., Croxford, B. 2004. Review of evidence of housing and health, Fourth Ministral Conference on Enviromental and Health, Budapest, Hungary, 23-25 June 2004. Dorgan Associated. 1993. Productivity and Indoor Environmental Quality Study, Alexanderia, VA, National Management Institute. Earth to Air: Reduce your heating and cooling expenses up to 80%, http://www.earthtoair.com. Energy Reduction, www.energyreduction.co.za. [6 June 2009].



Eskom, www.eskom.co.za. [10 June 2009]. Fathy, H., Natural Energy and Vernacular Architecture, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago and London (1986). Givoni, B., Climate Consideration in Building and Urban Design, Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York (1986). Golany, G., Housing in Arid Lands, The Architectural Press Ltd, London (1980). Intercontinental Bora Bora resort and thalasso SPA, www.boraboraspa.interconti.com, downloaded from http://www.clubdesargonautes.org/actualites/images/borabora.pdf Jenkins, P.L.Philips, T.J, Mulberg, E.J. 1990. Activity patterns of Californias: use of and proximity to indoor pollutant sources. Proceeding of Indoor Air ’90, Toronto, Vol. 2, pp.465-470. Khan, N., Su, Y., Riffat, S. B., A review on wind driven ventilation techniques, Energy and Buildings 40 (2008) 1586–1604. Lechner, N. 1991. Heating, Cooling, Lighting: Design Methods for Architects. John Wiley & Sons, Canada. Makai Ocean Engineering, www.makai.com Maldives Resort Spa and Accommodation, Soneva Fushi by Six Senses, downloaded from www.sixsenses.com/soneva-fushi/downloads/pdf/eco-stories/07-deep-sea-watercooling.pdf Monodraught: Windcatcher, natural ventilation systems, Brochure, available at www.monodraught.com. Rajapaksha, I., Nagai, H., Okumiya, M., Aventilated courtyard as a passive cooling strategy in the warm humid tropics, Renewable Energy 28 (2003) 1755–1778. Safarzadeh, H., Bahadori, M.N., Passive Cooling Effects of Courtyards, Building and Environment, 40 (2005) 89-104. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA (2007). South Africa climate and weather, Proyecto de Eficiencia de Cosecha, downloaded from http://www.cosechaypostcosecha.org/data/articulos/ConvenioSudafrica/ClimateAndWeath er.pdf UNEP/GRID Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions for selected African countries in 1997, http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/carbon_dioxide_co2_emissions_for_selected_african_coun tries_in_1997 (as of Jun. 17, 2010, 16:05 UTC) UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION (UNIDO), Clean Developement Mecahnism (CDM), Investor Guide, South Africa, Vienna 2003. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Buildings and Climate Change. Status, Challenges and Oppurtinitie. 2007.



The Development of an Integrated Model for Assessing Sustainability of Complex Systems Gayathri Babarenda Gamage (Presenter) Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Auckland, 20 Symonds Street, Auckland, New Zealand. [email protected] Dr. Carol Boyle Associate Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Auckland, 20 Symonds Street, Auckland, New Zealand. [email protected] Dr. Ir. Ron McDowall Management and International Business Department, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Auckland, Owen G Glenn Building, 12 Grafton Road, Auckland, New Zealand. [email protected] ABSTRACT Synergetic interaction of factors such as financial management, supply chain management, process management, research and development, strategic marketing and sales, employee and customer relations, etc. contribute to business success. Aligning business with principles of sustainable development (SD) is considered a worthwhile goal by many in the SD arena. One significant advantage with the alignment is the potential for enhanced resilience to shocks that may disturb income generating activities. However, there is growing awareness that sustainability of the Earth as a system needs to be considered when attempting to sustain business. This awareness may be significant for the survival and well being of the human species in the long term. Assessment of sustainability is an essential step in determining if action taken is sustainable. Early research in sustainability assessment was based on reconciling the three pillars (environmental, social and economic). Today there are numerous indicators (single and composite) for measuring impacts in the three pillars though current thinking emphasises the need for system thinking rather than the reductionist concept of pillars. Most existing indices/methods measure single aspects of sustainability and the more integrated indicators are aimed at national or global level assessments. A review of existing indicators, methods and models within the context of complex system sustainability showed that no single existing index, method or model was able to assess sustainability of complex systems. This is because most fail to account for complex system characteristics such as system dynamics, interconnections and interdependencies of system components, a system’s ability to learn and remember, emergence of novel behaviours, co-evolution, etc. This paper presents the methodology used to develop a new model for assessing sustainability of complex systems based on risk. 1. INTRODUCTION A complex system consists of large populations of independent, interacting and selfinterested agents where behaviour of the whole cannot be explained by the behaviour of the individual parts (Sawyer, 2005). Examples of complex systems include the weather, political parties, stock market, etc. (Nonaka and Nishiguchi, 2001; Gell-Mann, 1994). From complex system theory stemmed Complex Adaptive System (CAS) theory where a CAS is a system that is complex and adaptive giving it the ability to change and learn thus increasing chances of its survival. The Earth system is an example of a CAS (Holland, 1995; Norberg and 1 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 140


Cumming, 2008), and organisations are CAS within the Earth system (Waldrop, 1992). The adaptive cycle (Figure 1) is the “fundamental unit of dynamic change” in a complex system (Gunderson and Holling, 2002). It describes the process of development and decay of a system and contains within it four phases – exploitation (r), conservation (K), release (Ω), and reorganization (α) (Holling and Gunderson 2002). This work also outlines three properties of an adaptive cycle: 1) Inherent potential for change; 2) Internal degree of connectedness, flexibility, or rigidity; and 3) The adaptive capability or resilience of the system. The word “panarchy” was coined to represent the nature of adaptive cycles which are nested hierarchically within each other (Holling, 2001; Gunderson and Holling, 2002). Figure 1 illustrates the most important adaptive cycle in terms of sustainability where sustainability is defined as “the capacity to create, test and maintain adaptive capability”. According to Levin (1998), complex systems are resilient as they resist change or change slowly. Basically, a system maintains stability because it is protected by slow conservative changes in larger systems above it, while being energised by faster changes in smaller systems below it. Critical conditions within levels can cause disruptions between levels and destabilise the system. The “revolt” and “remember” cycles are significant at times of change. “Revolt” occurs at the Ω phase where a level in the panarchy experiences a collapse. The cascading effect can cause disruptions to larger and smaller levels triggering a crisis. The “remember” cycle draws information, energy or resources from the slow and larger levels to facilitate renewal.

Figure 1: Panarchy – revolt and remember cycles (Holling et al., 2002a)

1.1 The Research The objective of the research was to develop a model that is able to assess sustainability of a CAS by taking properties of CAS, such as the adaptive cycle, into account. The research method for developing the model is as follows: • Step 1: Review complex systems theory to determine the basic criteria required for sustainability; • Step 2: Review existing sustainability assessment models and methods to determine if they assess sustainability according to the criteria found in step 1; • Step 3: Develop a new model to assess sustainability by integrating the most appropriate existing models so as to capitalise on their strengths, minimise individual weaknesses in addition to meeting the criteria for sustainability; and • Step 4: Test the new model on case study products.



This paper presents the final model developed at Step 3 where the risk assessment (RA) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) are the two methods integrated. Steps 1 and 2 which lead to the choice of RA and LCA are briefly outlined here and are expected to be presented in subsequent papers. Some results from Step 4 can be found in Babarenda Gamage and Boyle (2006), Babarenda Gamage and Boyle (2008) and Babarenda Gamage et al. (2008). 2. CHARACTERISTICS OF COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS According to Holling et al. (2002, pp 396), sustainability “is maintained by relationships among a nested set of adaptive cycles arranged in a dynamic hierarchy in space and time – the panarchy”. Identifying characteristics of complex systems and how they interact may be useful for sustainability of complex systems (Raskin et al., 2002) given that “sustainability is the capacity to create, test, and maintain adaptive capability” (Holling et al., 2002b, pp 403). Having an understanding of complex systems is significant for policy making towards changes for sustainability (Munn, 1995). Therefore, understanding the patterns and function of complex systems, and thus making appropriate changes in some areas (e.g. product development (McCarthy et al., 2006) and organisational change (Dooley, 1997), etc.) may help increase resilience and adaptive capacity (Holling, 1996; Gunderson and Holling, 2002; Walker et al., 2004) and, thus, human survival. The characteristics of CAS need to be addressed or at least acknowledged in order to understand sustainability of the complex system. Following that, they also need to be addressed when assessing sustainability. Some of the significant characteristics of complex systems are given in Table 1. Note that there are many more characteristics such as randomness (Bonabeau et al., 1997), crosscutting hierarchical interaction (Arthur, 1997), fractal behaviour (Morales-Matamoros, 2010), edge of chaos/out-of-equilibrium dynamics (Arthur, 1997; Langton, 1991), feedback loops and learning (Arthur, 1996), etc. Table 1: Characteristics of complex adaptive systems

Characteristic Aggregation (Holism) Nonlinearity Flows, local interactions, connectivity Diversity

Emergence

Co-Evolution

Self organisation

Description of Characteristic Complexity emerges from the interactions of agents or systems. Agents interacting in non-linear ways such that the outcomes of interactions are not proportionate.

Reference Holland (1992), Arthur (1995) Holland (1992)

Agents are organised into networks where interactions Holland (1992), can trigger other interactions. Levin (1998)

Holland (1992), Agents evolve to fill certain niches and the greater the Levin (1998), variety of agents, the stronger the system can be. Kinzig et al. (2002) Dispersed interaction of agents acting in parallel result Arthur (1997), in patters that emerge which informs the behaviour of Holland (1998) the agents as well as the behaviour of the system. Systems are part of the environment and exist within Kauffman (1980), their environment hence as the environment changes, Ghersa et al. the systems also changes and when the system (1994) changes, the environment is also changed. "Order for free" - there is no command and control Waldrop (1992), hierarchy but there is constant re-organising in order to Kauffman (1980) determine the best fit in the environment in which the 3



Dynamic

Resilience

system functions. Agents and connections are not fixed in time but may be dynamic and change as conditions change. The Holland (1995) resulting pattern reflects change, learning and adaptation. The capacity to maintain function by absorbing Gunderson and shocks. It is also the ability for renewal and reHolling (2002) organisation

Significant characteristics of complex systems are used as criteria to evaluate existing sustainability assessment methods and models. The evaluation is aimed at determining whether existing methods and models are able to assess CAS; and failing that, to identify methods and models that are able to take into account some of the characteristics of CAS. The criteria used to evaluate existing methods and models are: 1. Take complexity of the system into account by: a. Recognising the existence of multiple agents and system levels; b. Recognising interconnections and interdependencies; c. Taking system dynamics into account (time and space); d. Recognising system limits or thresholds; e. Recognising resilience and adaptive capacity; and f. Being holistic; and 2. Be based on science where appropriate. The second criterion was added to help achieve scientific validity. 3. EVALUATING SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODS AND MODELS The criteria above were used to evaluate 26 existing sustainability assessment methods. These methods consist of analytical tools (e.g. cost benefit analysis, etc.), indicator based methods (e.g. Living Planet Index, Well Being Index, etc.) and integrated methods (Ecological Footprint, triple bottom line (TBL), etc.). The evaluation results showed that while the existing methods and models were successful at assessing the aspects of a system for which they were designed, they are unsuitable for tackling complex systems hence do not assess true sustainability. They do not incorporate enough of the necessary criteria thus fail at being holistic. The evaluation also highlighted a number of potential methods and models that may be beneficial if integrated as a new model. Eight existing methods and models, all of which have at least two of the seven criteria necessary for assessment of complex system sustainability were analysed further. These methods and models include risk assessment (RA) (analytical tool); ecosystem resilience (integrated method); Sustainable Process Index (an indicator); Life Cycle Assessment (analytical tool); Product Sustainability Index (an indicator); Ecological Footprint (integrated method); barometer for sustainability (integrated method); and Sustainability Assessment by Fuzzy Evaluation (SAFE) (integrated method), and may hold the key to assessing sustainability of complex systems. Generally, all of these tools may be integrated together and some of these tools may be extended in terms of their boundaries and scope to enable them to include characteristics of complex systems that are just beyond their reach. For example, LCA may be extended to allow for the social and economic dimensions to be analysed thus improving its abilities in terms of becoming a more holistic tool. Choosing the most appropriate methods for integrating was based on factors such as whether: 4 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 143


• • • • •

The assessment methods have been standardised; Literature as guides exist and are readily available; It is used for education, planning and policy development; Databases for the methods exist; Research with respect to the assessment method has to its own academic journal (i.e. indicating whether there is high volume of research in progress); • The assessment methods and their results are widely communicated and accepted; • The assessment method comprises of the necessary characteristics to be integrated (i.e. if there have been previous attempts to integrate); and • The assessment methods complement each other. The results of the evaluation showed that LCA and RA had many of the required characteristics and thus appropriate for integration. 4. NEW MODEL FOR ASSESSING SUSTAINABILITY The basic framework for the new model is given in Figure 2. Since LCA and RA have been standardized, the standards (ISO 14040, ISO 14044, AS-NZS 4360-2004, ISO/IEC 31010:2009) together with handbooks (Guinée et al., 2002; Baumann and Tillman, 2004; etc.) can provide information and instruction on some of the elements to be addressed for parts of this model.

A: Goal and scope (establish context)

B: Inventory

C: Impact assessment Identify risks

G: Monitor and review

F: Communicate and consult

Inventory analysis

D: Analyse risks Evaluate risks

E: Potential risk treatment

Figure 2: Sustainability assessment framework integrating LCA and RA



In terms of the practical implementation of the model, the extent of the study can be defined with respect to the expectations of the practitioner and commissioner of the study. The audience of the results depends on the purpose of the study. For example, if the study is conducted for improvement of a product, then the audience can range from the Board of Directors of the company to the design team where higher level buy-in may be useful for changes to occur. The model is to be applied to a Small and Medium size Enterprise (SME) but should be transferable to any product system. The simplest (reduced) version of the model is given in Figure 3. This is equivalent to a triple bottom line type model where the environment, social and economic systems have been reduced into three separate systems. A further reduction of the streamlined model in Figure 3 can be undertaken by concentrating on one type of system risk. However, this would defeat the purpose as the reductionist approach fails to account for the complexity by neglecting the interconnections and interdependencies with respect to the other systems. Time

Environmental risks

LCA

Environmental impacts

Impact source local/global

Social risks

Economic risks Figure 3: Streamlined sustainability assessment – reduced to three systems

While the model in Figure 3 may allow the identification of risk in different systems, it does not allow these risk events to be connected with the other systems. Often, a risk in one system propagates into another, but this model would not be able to make the appropriate connections across different system levels. This model can be modified according to the strong sustainability model (Brekke, 1997; Neumayer, 2003) as shown in Figure 4. Time Environmental risks Social risks LCA



Economic risks

Figure 4: Streamlined sustainability assessment

Since the version of the model given in Figure 4 starts off with one set of data, i.e. environmental data for LCA, it is still a streamlined version. However, while this is still a 6 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 145


streamlined version, it is able to trace the interconnections among the risks from the environmental, social and economic systems. In order to upgrade this model to a full holistic version, social and economic data are requires as input. Figure 5 shows the pathways for full sustainability assessment. Data concerning the three systems are used to calculate impacts for each system with respect to spatial differentiation. This is done separately up until the RA stage where risks are identified and analysed together with the interconnections. This model would entail the use of three separate databases, each similar to those required for the models in Figure 3 and Figure 4. While the assessment model in Figure 5 can accommodate most of the interconnections among the systems at the risk assessment stage, it still separates the three systems at the beginning thus remains to be reductionist to some extent. Time

LCA data



Environmental risks

Social risks Social LCA data

Social impacts


Economic risks

LCC data

Economic impacts


Figure 5: Sustainability assessment comprised of streamlined assessments per system

A fully integrated sustainability assessment would require the interconnections at each step to be taken into account. I.e. the inputs and outputs of all the relevant data would be integrated into a single inventory; the connections among the different types of impact categories would be made via cause-effect chains together with the respective locations of the impacts; and subsequently, the resulting set of risks would also highlight the interconnections among the various systems together with time (Figure 6). Each box in the figure represents complex interactions. This is not the same as adding the assessment of the three systems separately as interaction of inputs and outputs would be at a deeper and holistic level where there is little or no segregation of systems. As with the reduced versions of the model, the practitioner is able to choose which systems will be included in the assessment as per the goal of the study. The choice of input data (inventory), the type of impacts (i.e. impact categories) and risks to assess (i.e. environmental, social or economical) depends upon the goal of assessment. The main difference between this model and the earlier ones is that this would be able to illustrate the interconnections more effectively and holistically from beginning to end.



Risks Environmental risks Inventory

Environmental, Social and Economic impacts


Social risks Economic risks

Time Figure 6: Complete sustainability assessment

5. RESULTS FROM THE MODEL The model results in three levels of risk or threat identification that are connected through different system levels. The three levels of risks are: 1. Risks from smaller lower level systems (micro level) - risks within the product system as well as risks to the product system from systems below; 2. Risks from the larger upper level systems (macro level); and 3. External risks from random disasters – risks from emergence. The risks can be categorised according to the incoming and outgoing threats as shown in Figure 7. The outgoing risks (arrows in black) relate to the threats associated with the impacts found at the impact assessment step of LCA and consist of external or global risks affecting the larger systems. The incoming risks (arrows in red) indicate the risks to the inner systems propagating from larger upper level systems. The evaluation of the identified risks and the subsequent treatment of those risks are expected to aid sustainability of the complex system. Complex system - Environment

Societal system Economic system

Product system

Figure 7: Incoming and outgoing risks related to the CAS



6. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK The final model presented in the chapter is a hybrid model that uses the results of one component of the assessment, the LCA, as input data for another component (RA). The model progresses from a reduced version consisting of streamlined assessments with respect to the systems chosen for assessment, to a holistic version which encompasses all three relevant systems (environmental, social and economic) from initiation (inventory) to completion (risk evaluation).The model follows the LCA steps with integrated inventory up until impact assessment spanning all three system after which the impacts are analysed to determine the risks from the chosen impact categories. The impact are also analysed to determine the significant sources of the impacts and how these impact sources can threaten the system. There are various ways of streamlining the assessment, ranging from using separate data records in the inventory to reducing the risks according to each system. Failure of the streamlined assessment is expected due to the negligence of interconnections. Future work may consist of practical implementation of the full model, together with investigating whether mitigation of identified risk would indeed lead to sustainability. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research was conducted at the International Centre for Sustainability Engineering and Research, University of Auckland. It was financially supported by Technology New Zealand (Technology Industry Fellowship grant no. FMYX0506). REFERENCES Arthur, B. (1995) Complexity in Economics and Financial Markets, Complexity (1), 20-25. www.santafe.edu/arthur/Papers/Pdf_files/Complexity_Jnl.pdf Arthur, W., B. (1996) Increasing returns and the new world of business, Harvard Business Review, July-August 1996, 74(4): 100-109 Arthur, W., B. (1997) Introduction: Process and Emergence in the Economy . In: The Economy as an Evolving Complex System II, eds. W. Brian Arthur, Steven Durlauf, and David A. Lane. Reading, Mass, USA: Addison-Wesley Pub. Co, 1997.pp. 1-04 AS/NZS 4360: 2004 Risk Management standards Babarenda Gamage G, Boyle C (2006) Developing the use of environmental impact assessment in commercial organisations: a case study of Formway furniture. Proceedings of the 13th CIRP International Conference on Life Cycle Engineering, Leuven, 31 May 31–2 June 2006, http://www.mech.kuleuven.be/lce2006/ 072.pdf Babarenda Gamage G., Boyle C., McLaren S.J., McLaren J. (2008) Life cycle assessment of commercial furniture: A case study of Formway LIFE chair, International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 13 (5), pp. 401-411. Babarenda Gamage, G. And Boyle, C. (2008) Sustainability through Risk assessment: A Case Study of resource risk Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science, Auckland, NZ, Dec 9-12, 2008. Baumann, H. and Tillman, A. (2004) The Hitch Hiker's Guide to LCA: An orientation in LCA methodology and application, Studentlitteratur, Lund, ISBN 91-44-02364-2 Bonabeau, E., Theraulza, G., Deneubourg, J-L., Aron, S., Camazine, S. (1997) Selforganization in social insects, Santa Fe Institute, Working Paper: Santa Fe, New Mexico Brekke, K.A., 1997. Economic Growth and the Environment: On the Measurement of, Income and Welfare. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham. Dooley, K. (1997) A complex adaptive systems model of organizational change, Non-linear Dynamics, Psychology and the Life Sciences, 1, pp. 69-97. Gell-Mann, M. (1994) The Quark and the Jaguar. New York: Freeman & Co. 9 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 148


Ghersa C.M., Roush M.L., Radosevich S.R., Cordray S.M. (1994) Coevolution of agroecosystems and weed management - Weed-management practices have become closely linked to social and economic, rather than biological, factors, BioScience, 44 (2), pp. 85-94. Guinée, J.B., Gorrée, M., Heijungs, R., Huppes, G., Kleijn, R., de Koning, A., van Oers, L., Wegener Sleeswijk, A., Suh, S., Udo de Haes, H.A., de Bruijn, J.A., van Duin, R. and Huijbregts, M.A.J. (2002) Handbook on Life Cycle Assessment: Operational Guide to the ISO Standards. Series: Eco-efficiency in Industry and Science, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht. Gunderson, L.H. and Holling, C.S. (eds) (2002) Panarchy: Understanding Transformation in Human and Natural Ecosystems. Washington, DC: Island. Holland, J. H. (1992) Complex adaptive systems Daedalus, vol. 121, pp. 17-30, Winter, 1992. Holland, J. H. (1995) Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity; Helix Books: Reading, MA,. Holling, C. S. (1996) Engineering resilience versus ecological resilience. In: Schulze, P. Ed. Engineering within Ecological Constrains, Washington, D. C.: National Academy. Holling, C. S. (2001) Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and social systems. Ecosystems, 4 (5), 390-405. Holling, C. S. and L. H. Gunderson (2002) Resilience and adaptive cycles. Pages 25-62 in L. H. Gunderson and C. S. Holling, editors. Panarchy: understanding transformations in human and natural systems. Island Press, Washington, D.C., USA. ISO, (2006a) ISO, ISO 14040 International Standard, Environmental Management – Life Cycle Assessment – Principles and Framework, International Organisation for Standardization, Geneva, Switzerland (2006). ISO, (2006b) ISO, ISO 14044 International Standard, Environmental Management – Life Cycle Assessment – Requirements and Guidelines, International Organisation for Standardisation, Geneva, Switzerland (2006). Kauffman, S.A. (1980) Systems One: Introduction to Systems Thinking, SA Carlton: Minneapolis, MN Kinzig AP, Pacala SW and Tilman D. editors. 2002. The Functional Consequences of Biodiversity. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J. Langton, C. G. (1990) "Computation at the edge of chaos: phase transitions and emergent computation," Proceedings of the ninth annual international conference of the Center for Nonlinear Studies on Selforganizing,Collective, and Cooperative Phenomena in Natural and Artificial Computing Networks on Emergent computation, 1990 , pp. 12-37 Levin, S. A. (1998) Ecosystems and the Biosphere as Complex Adaptive Systems Ecosystems, Biomedical and Life Sciences and Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 1, pp. 431-436, Sep, 1998. McCarthy I.P., Tsinopoulos C., Allen P., Rose-Anderssen C. (2006) New product development as a complex adaptive system of decisions, Journal of Product Innovation Management, 23 (5), pp. 437-456. Morales-Matamoros, O., Tejeida-Padilla, R., Badillo-Piña, I. (2010) Fractal behaviour of complex systems, Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 27 (1), pp. 71-86. Munn, R. E. (1995) Atmospheric change in Canada: assessing the whole as well as the parts. Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Toronto Neumayer E. (2003) Weak versus strong sustainability: exploring the limits of two opposing paradigms. Second ed. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Nonaka, I., Nishiguchi, T. (2001) Knowledge Emergence: Social, Technical, and Evolutionary Dimensions of Knowledge Creation. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.



Norberg, J. and Cumming, G. S. (2008) Eds. Complexity Theory for a Sustainable Future; Columbia University Press: New York Raskin P, Banuri T, Gallopin G, Gutman P, Hammond, A, Kates R. and Swart R. (2002) Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. Sawyer, R. K. (2005). Social Emergence: Societies as Complex Systems. New York. Cambridge, University Press. Waldrop, M.M. (1992). Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Chaos. New York: Simon and Schuster. Walker, B., Holling, C.S., Carpenter, S.R. and Kinzig, A. (2004) Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social-ecolological systems. Ecology and Society 9 (2), art. 5. http//www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss2/art5



System Innovation for Sustainability at Product Development Level: A Scenario Method and a Workshop Process A. Idil Gaziulusoy University of Auckland Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Sustainability Engineering Programme [email protected] Carol Boyle University of Auckland Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Sustainability Engineering Programme [email protected] Ron McDowall University of Auckland Department of Management and International Business Sustainability, Complexity and Decision [email protected] Abstract It is now commonly accepted that, in order to achieve sustainability, we need societal transformation, which requires institutional, social/cultural, organisational as well as technological change. This type of massive societal transformation in which all aspects of society are expected to co-evolve towards and align with sustainability goals is defined as sustainability transition or system innovation for sustainability. One of the major actors in system innovation is industry. Nevertheless, neither the theory nor the operational approaches currently based on this emerging theory address how to link macro-level innovation (i.e. institutional and social-cultural innovation) to the micro-level innovation (i.e. product/service and technology innovation). This paper presents the results of a recently completed Ph.D. study. The overall objective of this study was to effectively link the activities/decisions at product development (micro-innovation) level in companies with the transformation which needs to take place at the societal (macro-innovation) level to achieve sustainability. The research took place in three distinguishable phases. In the first phase a broad literature review was carried out covering areas of sustainability science, futures studies and system innovation theory. In the second phase, a theory of system innovation at product development level was developed based on the findings and insights gathered from the review of the literature. This theory was used to develop a scenario method to help product development teams in planning for system innovation for sustainability. During this phase a workshop tool was also developed as the operational component of the scenario method. The third phase consisted of a field work carried out to test, improve and evaluate the scenario method using an action research methodology. The detailed evaluation of the effectiveness of the scenario method as a futures work and the potential of it to aid in system innovation for sustainability provided supportive evidence for the claim that the scenario method is a valuable and a viable method. Keywords: system innovation for sustainability, action research



1. Introduction Interest in system innovation for influencing a transition to sustainability started in the early 1990s, initiated by the Dutch National Inter-Ministerial Programme for Sustainable Technology Development (see Weaver et al., 2000). This was followed by several other projects (e.g., see, Vellinga & Herb, 1999; Vergragt, 2000; Quist et al, 2001; Green & Vergragt, 2002; Partidario, 2002; Partidario & Vergragt, 2002; Elzen et al., 2002; Hofman, 2005; Geels, 2002; Elzen et al., 2004; Raskin et al., 2006; Loorbach, 2007; Tukker et al., 2008). System innovation is defined as “a transition from one socio-technical system to another (Geels, 2005a, p.2)”. Since system innovation is a transformation which takes place at the wider societal context, it covers not only product and process innovations but also changes in user practices, markets, policy, regulations, culture, infrastructure, lifestyle, and management of firms (see, for example, Berkhout, 2002; Kemp & Rotmans, 2005; Sartorius, 2006; Geels, 2006). In other words, system innovation assumes structural changes take place in the sociotechnical system. Companies are important actors in this transformation and will have important roles in developing the technologies of the new system (Charter et al., 2008). In addition, technology is not an abstract concept. It manifests itself through artefacts; i.e. infrastructure, products, and services, which are usually closely linked in a systemic structure. Products of a different technological paradigm will be essentially different from the products of current technological paradigm in terms of both technical characteristics and social meaning. Therefore, the development of tools and methods which would enable active participation of companies through their business practices in planning for system innovation is necessary both in order to effectively implement any plan at policy level and to increase the adaptive capacity of individual companies with regards to the substantial change which will take place through transitions. Even though system innovation has become a central focus in policy development, especially within the European Union, a systematic theory on system innovations in general and how to use this theory to influence transitions towards sustainability in particular are currently emerging yet rapidly growing areas. This paper aims to contribute to this ongoing dialogue by presenting a scenario method developed as a result of a PhD project. The scenario method is intended for the use of product development teams of companies in planning for system innovation. 2. The Overall Research Methodology The PhD research which resulted in the development of the scenario method took place in three distinguishable and progressive phases. The first phase involved a critical review of literature relevant to system innovation for sustainability. The topics reviewed during this phase covered sustainability science, characteristics of innovation for sustainability, the newly emerging theory of system innovation, futures studies, the relationship between futures studies, sustainability and system innovation, and, the role of industry in achieving sustainability. The second phase of the research built on the findings of the first part and integrated insights in order to first develop theory and models on how to involve product development teams in system level innovation for sustainability and second to develop a scenario method and a workshop process for product development teams of companies. Following the second phase, in order to test, improve and evaluate the scenario method, a field work was carried out.



The field work consisted of receiving feedback from potential expert users through one-toone consultation sessions and from potential members of product development teams through workshops following an action research methodology (i.e. iterative cycles of improvement). A potential expert user of the method was defined as any person who has expertise in providing advice/consultancy to businesses in the joint area of sustainability and innovation and/or any person who has expertise in facilitating group processes. A potential member of product development teams was defined as anyone with a professional qualification of product/service design, design engineering, innovation management, strategy development, environmental/ sustainability management, and sales and marketing who provides input to the team during product design/development phase. Expert users are not the end-users but potentially the intermediary users of the scenario method who can introduce the method to businesses and lead/facilitate workshops with product development teams. Product development teams of companies are the intended end-users of the method. Any member in these teams can assume the role of a change agent and lead/facilitate a workshop or a workshop can be delivered to these teams by external change agents (which are represented by the potential expert users). The field work covered five action research cycles (ARC) over a period of six months (see Figure 1). A total of thirteen (eight local and five overseas) experts were consulted and a total of three workshops (one in New Zealand, one in the Netherlands and one in Turkey) were held. The scenario method (its conceptual and operational frameworks) was improved and evaluated based on observations during workshops and participant feedback (collected via open-ended questionnaires).

Figure 1. The schedule of the field work

At the end of the field work following the fifth ARC the final version of the scenario method was released. The next section presents the scenario method and its operational tool, i.e. a workshop process. 3. The Scenario Method: Final Version The scenario method presented here is based on the multi-level perspective on system innovations (see Kemp, 1994; Van den Ende & Kemp, 1999; Kemp, Rip & Schot, 2001; Geels, 2005a; 2005b; Geels & Schot, 2007) and the theory and models developed as part of the PhD research (details can be found in Gaziulusoy & Boyle, 2008; Gaziulusoy, Boyle & McDowall, 2008a; 2008b; Gaziulusoy, Boyle & McDowall, 2009). The scenario method emphasises that the entity (i.e. the company) is within a context of complex socio-technical



system and the ultimate aim (i.e. the vision) of undertaking the process is to sustain the society (not necessarily the entity itself). It is developed to fulfil seven criteria: 1. The scenario method should be based on the strong sustainability model; 2. The scenario method should enable businesses to model themselves within the strong sustainability model; 3. The scenario method should link the planning periods applicable to companies (operational and strategic) to the long-term planning period (visionary) in order to enable companies to address long-term societal visions in their strategies and effectively implement these strategies in product development; 4. The scenario method should aid companies in identifying not only technology development requirements but also organisational/human development requirements; 5. The scenario method should aid companies in developing integrated business strategies aligned with societal level sustainability visions and day-to-day business activities and should facilitate integration of all business functions in line with the company strategy; 6. The scenario method should have a double-flow approach in order to link present and future in a realistic way and enable identification of alternative innovation paths which are possible from a technological point of view, acceptable from a social/cultural point of view and desirable from a sustainability point of view, and; 7. The scenario method should have a layered risk approach in order to identify implications of overarching sustainability risks on the companies‟ business as contextual risks. This way, sustainability can be internalised in the companies‟ organizational and product development strategy and active participation of companies in setting sustainability visions at societal level can be enabled. Figure 2 shows the outline of the scenario method. As seen, there are three phases: preparation, scenario development and completion. The first task is to develop understanding of the system by analysing the relationships between the environment, society and economy as well as the interactions between the organisation and these three subcomponents. This is followed by identifying sustainability risks, analysing the dynamic relationships between these risks and articulating the implications of the risks on the business of the organisation. The third task in the preparation phase is identifying the social function being met by the products and services provided by the organisation and analysing how this social function is currently being met. The scenario development phase starts with developing a sustainable society vision within which the sustainability risks previously identified are either mitigated or adapted to. Then, how the social function is being fulfilled in this sustainable society is articulated. Following visioning, forward and backward scenarios are developed. The forward scenarios start from present and identify the successive technological and organisational changes necessary to reach the envisioned state. The backward scenarios stat from the vision and identify the preceding technological and organisational changes necessary to reach the present state. The aligning paths are identified as the alternative innovation paths that the organisation can follow towards system innovation. The scenario development task is followed by analysing the present and future stakeholders and placing them on the scenario map where they can be of high influence in achieving associated goals. Also, product and service ideas are generated and placed on the scenario map where they can be introduced if that particular state is reached in the future. In the completion phase an action plan or strategy is prepared to identify the steps to be taken, the responsibilities and the follow up procedure.



Figure 2. The outline of the scenario method

Based on this outline, a workshop process is designed which can be followed by facilitators. Table 1 shows the progression of the workshop modules along with brief explanations of what the module involves and what are the expected outcomes. This table also provides indicative times for completion of each module.



1st Half-Day

40 mins.

2nd Half-Day

80 mins.

60 mins.

Outcome/Deliverable

1. The participants check-in; 2. The facilitator briefs the group about the purpose and agenda of the workshop and gives a short presentation clarifying the concepts used.

Outcome: Everybody checked-in, common understanding of the purpose of the workshop and the concepts used, group ready to start.

1. The group builds a world model showing the interrelationships between the environment, society and economy; 2. The participants position their organisation on this world model and articulate the interactions taking place between each sub-system and their organisation; 3. (Optional) The participants draw a life-cycle map of one of their organisation‟s product/service.

1. The group prepares a list of risks to sustainability; 2. The facilitator checks this list against a pre-prepared list compiled from different resources (e.g. Kates et al., 2001; MEA, 2005; IPPC, 2007; UNEP, 2009) and makes suggestions to expand the list if any risk relevant to the organisation is missing; 3. These risks are mapped on the world model the group built in the previous module and the dynamic relationships between them are identified; 4. The participants identify implications of the risks to sustainability to the business of their organisation.

Outcome: Participants understand the irreversible and hierarchical relationships between the environment, society and economy. The participants understand the major interactions taking place and dependencies between their organisation and the three subsystems. Deliverable: A world model based on the hierarchical interdependencies between the environment, society and economy showing the interactions taking place between the organisation and the three sub-systems.

0. Introduction

Activity

1. We are a system

45 mins.

Module

3. Social Function

Min. Duration

2. Risks

Table 1. The workshop process

1. The group identifies the social function fulfilled by the products/services offered by the organisation

Outcome: The group understands how long-term wider-scale sustainability risks which threaten the society do and will affect the organisation‟s business and products/services it delivers. Deliverable: A list of risks to sustainability; a risk map (mapped on the world model developed in the previous module) showing dynamic relationships between risks; a list of implications of risks to sustainability on the organisation and the products/services it delivers. Outcome: The group starts to think conceptually and is able to shift the existential focus of the organisation from itself to the wider context of society. Deliverable: Written expression of social function.


50 mins.

50 mins.

4. Visions 6. Products/Services

4th Half-Day

50 mins.

1. The group brainstorms to generate product/service ideas which can be introduced if particular events anticipated happen; 2. These ideas are mapped on the scenario map; 3. (Optional) The product/service ideas are evaluated.

7. Stakeholders

130 mins.

1. The group is divided into two subgroups; 2. One group develops forward flowing, explorative scenarios; 3. The other group develops backward flowing, normative scenarios; 4. Some group members switch between groups to cross-fertilise each flow; 5. Two groups share their work with each other; 6. Aligning paths are identified and further work can be done to help some other paths to align.

1. The group prepares a list of stakeholders; 2. The group maps the stakeholders on the two-axis stakeholder model; 3. The group maps the stakeholders on the event trees or connections of the scenario map where they are likely to be most influential.

8. Action Plan

3rd Half-Day

105 min.

1. The group develops a normative vision for a sustainable society within which the risks identified in the previous section are mitigated/ managed/adapted to; 2. The group develops an organisational vision (can be referenced to the social function the organisation would like to fulfil) compatible with the vision of a sustainable society.

5. Scenario Development


1. The group reviews the scenario map; 2. The group identifies actions to be taken in the following week, month, year; 3. For each action identified, a responsible person is allocated; 4. A follow-up meeting to review the scenario map is scheduled in a year‟s time.

Outcome: The group involves in development of societal visions for sustainability and understands the systemic relations between the future of the society and their organisation. The group understands how institutional and social/cultural changes need to go in parallel with organisational and technological innovations to achieve sustainability. Deliverable: Vision(s) of a sustainable society documented on paper in written form (can be accompanied with imagery). Outcome: The group gains an understanding on the availability and characteristics of the possible innovation paths the organisation can utilise towards system innovation. Deliverable: A scenario map Outcome: The group gains an understanding on the availability and characteristics of products/services that can be introduced along the innovation paths developed in the previous module. Deliverable: A scenario map with the products/services layer added onto it. Outcome: The group gains an understanding of the current and future stakeholders, their intentions and possible influences along the innovation paths identified. Deliverable: A list of stakeholders, a stakeholder map and a scenario map with the products/services and stakeholders layers added onto it. Outcome: The group identifies the immediate steps needed to be taken to realise the innovation paths towards system innovation for sustainability and commitment is established to the action plan developed. Deliverable: An action plan agreed upon by the participants and documented in written form.

The results of the evaluation of the scenario method by the research participants provided evidence that the research participants, who are also potential users/facilitators of the scenario method, found the scenario method to be:



1. 2. 3.

An effective way to aid product development teams to incorporate sustainability issues into their decision making; Able to influence the business transformation which needs to take place as part of the societal transformation to achieve sustainability, and; A worthwhile activity for their respective companies.

The results of the evaluation of the scenario method provided evidence that the scenario method effectively assists product development teams in: 1. Understanding the hierarchical irreversible relationships between the environment, society and economy and between their organisation and these three sub-systems; 2. Understanding the issues threatening the sustainability of the society (i.e. risks to sustainability of the society), the dynamic relationships among these issues and the implications of these on the business or their organisation; 3. Generating normative long-term societal visions within which the risks to sustainability were mitigated/managed/adapted to by the society through a combination of institutional, social/cultural, organisational and technological changes, and; 4. Developing scenario maps to link present to the long-term future visions of a sustainable society they developed enabling alternative innovation paths to be identified. These results indicate that the scenario method can now be used in real life projects where product development teams would like to align their activities and decisions with longer-term wider-context requirements of sustainability. 4. Discussion and Closure The lack of systemic understanding and the blind attachment to growth oriented policies and strategies are still prevailing in business models of companies. Nevertheless, in some companies a belief on a broader social purpose exists on a voluntary and long-term basis. There are also good reasons to believe that in some other companies such understanding will evolve shortly through crisis as a result of not being able to foresee the implications of longterm sustainability related trends on business (White, 2006). A recent study which investigated two cases of firm uptake of system innovation thinking emphasized the power of companies to influence system level change (Van Bakel et al., 2007). This study, on the basis of two cases investigated, concluded that even though companies realize the opportunities rising from identifying sustainability issues at societal level, they find managing all business activities with system innovation in mind very challenging and these companies generally run such strategies as „shadow-track‟ strategies. The study also suggests that the core conditions of success for running these shadow track strategies are management support, time and funding and “a gradual attunement between the shadow-track and regular policy when ideas and innovations mature (p. 12)” as well as support at government level. Observations in New Zealand can also confirm a shift taking place in businesses towards a desire and effort to understand the implications of long-term sustainability risks on their businesses which is accelerated with the economic recession. The confusion on how to relate long-term sustainability requirements to their day to day decisions prevails as their primary problem due to the lack of models and tools. Therefore, it is believed that the scenario method is timely and it hopefully will contribute the ongoing dialogue about system level innovation in product development, business management and governance areas.



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Giurco, Dr. Damien1* Prior, Dr. Timothy1 Mason, Ms. Leah1 Mudd, Dr. Gavin2 1 2

Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, Australia Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Australia

*PO Box 123, Broadway NSW 2007 Australia Email: [email protected] Tel: +61-2-9514 4978 Fax: +61-2-9514 4941 Peak Minerals: Mapping Sustainability Issues at Local and National Scales Category – Limits to growth ABSTRACT Peak minerals adopts the Hubbert metaphor for peak oil to highlight issues associated with initial mining of ‘cheaper, more accessible and higher quality ores’ pre-peak, to ‘lower grade, more remote, complex and expensive ores’ post-peak. In doing so, it prompts focus on the ‘services’ provided by the resource in-use as well as the transition strategy to supply those services following the decline of production post-peak. This paper applies the peak minerals metaphor as a basis for examining the social and environmental implications pre- and post-peak production across spatial scales. Using document review and stakeholder analysis from a National Peak Minerals Forum held in Australia, social and environmental impacts are mapped at local and national scales. This innovative mapping found that currently, consideration is given to local social and environmental issues and global economic issues, however, triple bottom line issues at the national scale are currently overlooked. As minerals resources belong to the people of a nation, this finding will inform future approaches to transition strategies seeking to maximise long term value for the use of the resources. 1. INTRODUCTION Demand for Australian non-renewable mineral resources is rising, in large part driven by demand from China. Production increases by 2020 needed to meet demand range from between 50% for copper and iron or to more than 100% for zinc and nickel (Access Economics, 2008). However, the ores being mined to supply this demand are of increasingly lower grade and are more complex to process (Giurco, Prior, Mudd, Mason, & Behrisch, 2010; Mudd, 2007) and whilst Australia will not physically run out of these resources – economic, social and environmental constraints can hasten the onset of peak minerals (Mudd & Ward, 2008). Declining ore grades also significantly increase environmental and social impacts (Giurco & Petrie, 2007; Norgate & Haque, 2010) and for mining regions, the issue of cumulative impacts from multiple mines is also of concern (Franks, Brereton, & Moran, 2009). Currently, little consideration is being given to how environmental and social impacts



change through time – over the life of the peak production curve – at local and national scales (Giurco, et al., 2010). This paper uses the Hubbert model developed for peak oil (Hubbert, 1971) as metaphor for peak production in minerals, highlighting the need to better understand: •

social and environmental impacts at different stages of the peak, and

•

how understanding impact profiles along the peak production trajectory can inform sustainable minerals management and deliver long term benefit to regionally and nationally.

2. PEAK MINERALS METAPHOR Hubbert (Hubbert, 1956) proposed a forecast for the timing of peak production of oil from mainland US states as shown in Figure 1Figure 1. Whilst the ‘peak’ concept has been subsequently associated with ‘when will production peak’ as highlighted by (Hemmingsen, 2010) whilst giving lesser focus to other aspects of Hubbert’s work, namely, that irrespective of the exact year of peak production post-peak extraction will be more difficult, prompting the need to focus on developing a transition technology to provide the energy services. Additionally, supply disruption during transition could cause economic impacts. Energy Services

Figure 1: Hubbert’s prediction for peak oil production in the lower 48 states of the USA and a potential transition to nuclear power to supply the energy services (adapted from (Hubbert, 1956))

The applicability of the peak oil metaphor to minerals is described more fully in other literature (Giurco, et al., 2010; May, Prior, & Giurco, 2010), including the differences with respect to understanding discovery, production, ultimately recoverable reserves and the fact that metals from minerals are recyclable and therefore potentially available for reuse (when not tied up in in-use stocks). The generic peak minerals metaphor used in this paper is shown in Figure 2.



Annual national production (t)

lower costs/impacts* higher ore grades shallower mines simple ores low mine waste

higher costs/impacts* lower ore grades deeper mines complex /refractory ores more mine waste

output from transition

year of peak production

time

*costs and impacts are social, economic, environmental Figure 2: Generalised peak minerals metaphor

Figure 2 highlights that production post-peak is characterised by higher costs and impacts, arising from lower ore grades (as higher grades become exhausted), deeper mines (as shallower deposits are exploited), more mine waste (from obtaining the same amount of product from lower grades or deeper mines) and more complex/refractory ores (for example the move to processing nickel laterites following the decline in available sulfide deposits). The generalised transition (dotted line) indicated can be interpreted in different ways, depending on what the peak production curve is taken to represent; for example: •

if the peak curve represents aggregate national (or local) minerals production, the transition could prompt the question of what (other) sector could underpin the prosperity of the nation (or local area) following the decline of the mining sector;

•

the second way in which the metaphorical peak can be used is to focus on assessing the disruptiveness of the transition – this is explored further by (Mason, Prior, Mudd, & Giurco, 2010).

•

finally, if the peak curve is for a specific commodity such as copper, then it could prompt consideration of what transition material will supply the services to which copper is currently integral following peak production (recycled copper, another metal as aluminium for carrying electricity or non-metal such as plastic water pipes). o this line of argument is more pertinent to a commodity approaching a global peak – such as oil – than a national peak, as following a decline in Australian copper production it is likely to be sourced from other countries overseas (e.g. Chile). Whilst an Australian peak would not be a problem for global supply, the economic, social and environmental consequences of declining national production must be managed. o by focussing on a single commodity, the role which future technologies could play in moderating the current peak, or, in unlocking a transition to a second new peak for the commodity (such as occurred with the use of the carbon in pulp process for gold, see (D. Giurco, et al., 2010) (G. M. Mudd, 2007). o the remainder of this current paper seeks to explore the role which social and environmental constraints could play in limiting supply or changing demand, by mapping them at different scales across the peak production curve.



3. SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ACROSS SCALES This section explores how the social and environmental impacts map across a generalised peak production curve (i.e. not for a specific commodity or location) and discusses the connections between them with a view to identifying connections and areas of further investigation required to understand their potential influence on peak minerals and in the longer term, to sustainable resource management. 3.1. Social impacts at the local scale When examining the influence of peak minerals on society, it is clear that impacts vary at different scales: local, regional/national and global. At an international scale, (Clark & Cook Clark, 1999) identified tenure and social issues as the two most important factors that would impact on global mining operations in the future. More locally, in a survey of mining industry representatives, namely, members of the Australian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, (Moffat, Mason, & Littleboy, 2009) it was found that although social issues were not considered of primary importance as future drivers in the Australian industry (with economic and environmental drivers rated more highly), they were nonetheless considered significant. That these concerns vary merely demonstrates the variability inherent in the social dynamics of the minerals industry.

Annual local production (t)

Local social considerations

Figure 3 shows the mapping of local social considerations to the peak production curve and further descriptions and references are given in Table 1. National and global considerations are explored further in (Giurco, et al., 2010).

Social licence to operate Human Capital Development

Managing nearest neighbour impacts Post-mining Social impacts

Land use conflict higher grades lower costs

lower grades higher costs

time Figure 3: Local social considerations consideration mapped to the peak production curve (D. Giurco, et al., 2010)



Table 1: Social considerations at different stages of the peak minerals cycle Issue Land use conflict Social and human capital development

Social licence to operate

Managing nearest neighbour and cumulative impacts Post-mining social impacts

Description / Example Conflict between farmers and miners in Liverpool Plains, New South Wales The level of dependence between mining and the community varies between communities, in relation to the mined commodities, and as a result of the way mining companies operate in different localities. Social licence refers to the demands on industry from citizens to going beyond compliance with respect to corporate responsibility The resource rich nature of some localities means they are likely to experience the cumulative impacts of several mining operations. Post-mining social impacts can arise from job losses, economic impacts and health impacts postmine closure.

Reference (Hilson, 2002; Smith, 2009) (Solomon, Katz, & Lovel, 2008; Stedman, Parkins, & Beckley, 2004; Warhurst & Mitchell, 2000) (Gunningham, Kagan, & Thornton, 2004) (Brereton, 2003; Franks, Brereton, & Moran, 2009) (Marcello, Malcolm, & Mary Louise, 2001; Otchere, Veiga, Hinton, Farias, & Hamaguchi, 2004)

Figure 3 is a generalised representation of the issues with respect to the production cycle. Mapping the issue through time from the perspective of the community is shown in Figure 4 with specific identification of mediating processes.

Figure 4: The resource community cycle (Lockie, Franettovich, Petkova-Timmer, Rolfe, & Ivanova, 2009)



Annual local production (t)

Local environmental considerations

3.2 Environmental considerations and local and national scales External environmental factors affect mining and processing production patterns, including climate change and input constraints (such as water and energy). However, mining and minerals production also gives rise to its own environmental impacts as shown in Figure 5 for local scale considerations.

Operational impacts Permits & Compliance Exploration & Construction Impacts higher grades lower costs

Post-mining legacy impacts Remediation & Monitoring lower grades higher costs

time

Figure 5: Environmental impacts mapped along peak production curve at the local scale

Figure 6:

Annual national production (t)

National environmental considerations

Considerations for the national scale are shown in Figure 6, with a particular focus on the environmental issues states or the nation as a whole would need to consider in relation to peak production from any given mining sector. Whilst there are similar themes when compared with local environmental (exploration and construction permits, impacts and governance) there are distinct ones such as strategic assessment and the environmental regulation of postmining issues (who pays for cleanup of abandoned mines or contaminated rivers?). Strategic assessment here refers to the question – if as a nation we have depleted our own stocks of particular metals and mining revenue streams, how will this affect our ability to respond to environmental challenges in the economy more broadly, especially if environmental and social externalities were inadequately incorporated into the revenue streams obtained from resource extraction (Prior, Giurco, Mudd, Mason, & Behrisch, 2010).

Environmental monitoring, emissions reporting Governance structures Exploration & Permits higher grades lower costs

Strategic assessment Environmental regulation of post-mining lower grades higher costs

time

Environmental impacts at the national scale mapped along the peak production curve



Both Figure 5 and Figure 6 position selected impacts or issues along the peak production curve. Additionally and critically, one needs to engage with how such issues affect different stakeholder groups, from communities to mining companies and governments (Giurco, et al., 2010). These issues were explored in early 2010 at a National Peak Minerals Stakeholder Forum in Sydney, discussed further in the next section. 3.3 Stakeholder views from National Peak Minerals Forum The National Peak Minerals Forum (Institute for Sustainable Futures, 2010) was held in Sydney in April 2010, bringing together a range of stakeholders from across sectors to discuss how the issue of peak minerals is understood from different perspectives and how this can link to informing future resource governance strategies. The forum focused on how peak minerals represents a symbolic change from the current mining of cheap, accessible, easily processed ores, to a future where lower grade, more complex and inaccessible ores remain. Australia’s largest mineral exports are iron ore, gold, copper and alumina, and high‐grade reserves are being depleted. Whilst estimating the long‐term availability of commodities is difficult, rising production rates shorten resource life, and new greenfields discoveries of high quality ores are not being made. Efficiency gains have offset declining grades to date, but water and energy use is rising. The role of new technology being developed by CSIRO was then explored, including in processing iron ore with phosphorus impurities, using bio‐char in steelmaking to reduce greenhouse gases, in heap leaching of nickel laterites and in‐situ leaching of gold. The impact of the minerals industry on Australia was then discussed, noting the challenges of a stronger dollar and higher interest rates. A sovereign wealth fund was explored as a way to avoid currency appreciation and capture long‐term wealth from minerals processing. There was general acknowledgement that ‘peak minerals’ in Australia will place increasing pressure on the competitiveness of Australian mining, though for most minerals a peak in production had not yet occurred. Priority actions identified by participants were: •

Establishment of clear incentives that can support industry developments towards sustainability. - Extensive R&D into mine site remediation. Development of less intrusive mining techniques (e.g. keyhole mining). Technology designed now that meets the needs of the future - More efficient extraction of minerals from co-deposit mines. - Legislative or market-based mechanisms to improve production efficiency.

•

Development of business models around resource custodianship. - Higher use of waste streams; value drawn from waste via reprocessing/recycling. - Localisation of society around resource flows.

•

Nationally coordinated research to foster ecological analysis, systems thinking, philosophy to guide decision-making. - Investment in R&D for technologies to help Australia to out-compete countries whose competitive advantage lies in value adding (e.g. Low-cost labour in China). - Sector mind-set change from production to service establishment (e.g. minerals custodianship). - Increased government involvement in diversification of the economy.

Turning the discussion toward how best to respond, participants identified four key areas for positioning the minerals industry within a more sustainable Australian economy:



1. Technological advances as key factors in the future sustainability of the mining industry. 2. Structures for long‐term decision‐making that can assist the development of effective minerals policy. 3. The establishment of Australia as minerals services hub, not simply a quarry for global mineral needs. 4. Ensure impacts from mining are balanced by better and more even distribution of wealth from minerals. Barriers and enablers for each area were identified, highlighting the link between social and environmental issues at different stages of the peak production curve. For example a barrier to the second area “long term decision making” was the weak structures which exist for including social and environmental considerations in decision making and the Ministerial Council of the National and State governments to facilitate industry and government collaboration on long term planning. 4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION The concept of resource production peaks has been popularised for many decades following Hubbert's analysis of peak oil. However, there has been much less research directed to understanding the social and environmental issues through time associated with the peak minerals production trajectory is important for raising awareness of these often externalised issues and how they change across scales and through time. This paper has used a conceptual peak minerals model to map these issues across scales and presented resultant stakeholder reflections. Building on the results of the Australian National Peak Minerals Forum, it was found that whilst local and community issues receive attention, monitoring and the development of a coordinated response to national issues is lacking. Future work will further develop indicators to inform sustainable minerals management that delivers long term benefit to regions and the nation as whole. 5. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This research has been undertaken as part of the Minerals Futures Research Cluster, a collaborative program between the Australian CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation); The University of Queensland; The University of Technology, Sydney; Curtin University of Technology; CQ University; and The Australian National University. The authors gratefully acknowledge the contribution of each partner and the CSIRO Flagship Collaboration Fund. The Minerals Futures Cluster is a part of the Minerals Down Under National Research Flagship. 6. REFERNCES Access Economics. (2008). Global commodity demand scenarios, A report for the Minerals Council of Australia. Brereton, D. (2003). Self-regulation of environmental and social performance in the Australian mining industry. Environmental and Planning Law Journal, 20(4), 261-274.



Clark, A. L., & Cook Clark, J. (1999). The new reality of mineral development: social and cultural issues in Asia and Pacific nations. Resources Policy, 25(3), 189-196. Franks, D., Brereton, D., & Moran, C. J. (2009). Surrounded by Change – Collective Strategies for Managing the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Mines. Paper presented at the International Conference on Sustainable Development Indicators in the Mineral Industry, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. Giurco, D., Evans, G., Cooper, C., Mason, L., Moffat, K., & Littleboy, A. (2010). Mineral futures: a cross-scale analysis of sustainability issues and responses. Australiasian Journal of Environmental Management, (submitted). Giurco, D., & Petrie, J. G. (2007). Strategies for reducing the carbon footprint of copper: New technologies, more recycling or demand management? Minerals Engineering, 20(9), 842-853. Giurco, D., Prior, T., Mudd, G., Mason, L., & Behrisch, J. (2010). Peak Minerals in Australia: A review of changing impacts and benefits: Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS, Sydney. Gunningham, N., Kagan, R., & Thornton, D. (2004). Social license and environmental protection: why businesses go beyond compliance. Law & Social Inquiry, 29(2), 307-341. Hemmingsen, E. (2010). At the base of Hubbert's Peak: Grounding the debate on petroleum scarcity. Geoforum, 41(4), 531-540. Hilson, G. (2002). An overview of land use conflicts in mining communities. Land Use Policy, 19(1), 65-73. Hubbert, M. K. (1956). Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuel. Drilling and Production Practice. Hubbert, M. K. (1971). The energy resources of the earth. Scientific American, 225(3), 60-70. Institute for Sustainable Futures, U. (2010). National Peak Minerals Forum Summary. Retrieved from http://www.resourcefutures.net.au/peak_minerals_national_forum Lockie, S., Franettovich, M., Petkova-Timmer, V., Rolfe, J., & Ivanova, G. (2009). Coal mining and the resource community cycle: A longitudinal assessment of the social impacts of the Coppabella coal mine. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 29(5), 330-339. Marcello, M. V., Malcolm, S., & Mary Louise, M. (2001). Mining with communities. Natural Resources Forum, (3), 191-202. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.14778947.2001.tb00761.x Mason, L., Prior, T., Mudd, G., & Giurco, D. (2010). Sustainable Mineral Resource Management: Peak Minerals in Australia Paper presented at the 16th International Sustainable Development Reserach Conference, Hong Kong. May, D., Prior, T., & Giurco, D. (2010). Peak minerals: a relevant concept for managing global resources? Resource Policy (in preparation). Moffat, K., Mason, C., & Littleboy, A. (2009). Preparing for uncertain mineral futures: A survey of AusIMM members on the future issues and drivers for the Australian minerals industry. Paper presented at the Sustainable Development Indicators in the Minerals Industry (SDIMI) Conference, , Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. Mudd, G. M. (2007). Gold mining in Australia: linking historical trends and environmental and resources sustainability. Environmental Science & Policy, 10(7-8), 629-644. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2007.04.006 Mudd, G. M. (2007). The Sustainability of Mining in Australia: Key Production Trends and their Environmental Implications for the Future (Research Report No RR5 ed.).



Mudd, G. M., & Ward, J. D. (2008). Will Sustainability Constraints Cause "Peak Minerals"? Paper presented at the 3rd International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science: Blueprints for Sustainable Infrastructure, Auckland, New Zealand Norgate, T., & Haque, N. (2010). Energy and greenhouse gas impacts of mining and mineral processing operations. Journal of Cleaner Production, 18(3), 266-274. Otchere, F. A., Veiga, M. M., Hinton, J. J., Farias, R. A., & Hamaguchi, R. (2004). Transforming open mining pits into fish farms: Moving towards sustainability. [Article]. Natural Resources Forum, 28(3), 216-223. Prior, T., Giurco, D., Mudd, G., Mason, L., & Behrisch, J. (2010). Resource depletion, peak minerals and implications for sustainable resource management. Paper presented at the International Society for Ecological Economics (ISEE) 11th Biennial Conference, Oldenburg/Bremen, Germany. Smith, S. (2009). Mining and the Environment. Briefing Paper No 6/2009, Parliament of New South Wales. Solomon, F., Katz, E., & Lovel, R. (2008). Social dimensions of mining: Research, policy and practice challenges for the minerals industry in Australia. Resources Policy, 33(3), 142-149. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2008.01.005 Stedman, R. C., Parkins, J. R., & Beckley, N. M. (2004). Resource dependence and community well-being in rural Canada. [Proceedings Paper]. Rural Sociology, 69(2), 213-234. Warhurst, A., & Mitchell, P. (2000). Corporate social responsibility and the case of Summitville mine. Resources Policy, 26(2), 91-102.



AUTHOR:

Samuel Gyamfi, B.Sc. Eng(KNUST), M.Sc. Energy(Aachen)

Co-authors: Susan Krumdieck, Assoc Prof., BS, MS(Ariz. State),PhD(Colorado), MRSNZ Larry Brackney, Building Systems Engineer, NREL, USA. BSME(RHIT), MS(RHIT), PhD(Purd.) Presenter:

Susan Krumdieck

Title:

Pattern Recognition Residential Demand Response: An Option for Critical Peak Demand Reduction in New Zealand

Contact information Advanced Energy and Material Systems Laboratory, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand Telephone: +64 3364 2987 Ext: 4107, Fax: +64 3364 2078 Email: [email protected] or samuel.gyamfi @pg.canterbury.ac.nz

Abstract Influencing households to adopt sustainable energy consumption behaviour is important to the transition towards a sustainable energy future. However, if one aims at influencing the energy consumption habits of people, one should also be able to estimate the resulting effects on the entire energy system. Residential demand response to reduce load on the electricity network has largely been impeded by information barriers and a lack of proper understanding of consumers’ behaviour. What are not well understood and are of great interest include load disaggregation, the behaviour of customers when responding to demand response request, load shifting models and their impact on the load curve of the utility. There is concern among demand response practitioners, for example, that demand response in the residential sector may simply move the peak problem with scale from one point in time to another. However, unavailability of appliance-level demand data makes it difficult to study this problem. In this paper, a generalized statistical model for generating load curves of the individual residential appliances is presented. These data allow one to identify the relative contribution of the different components of the residential load on a given residential feeder. This model has been combined with demand response survey in a neighbourhood with 400 households in Christchurch, New Zealand, to determine the effect of customers’ behaviour in reducing the neighbourhood’s winter peak demand. The results show that when customers’ are given enhanced information, they would voluntarily act to reduce their peak demand by about 10% during the morning peak hours and 11% during the evening peak hours. The demand responsiveness of the individual appliances is also presented. The effectiveness of customer behaviour modification in maintaining system reliability is also presented. Keywords: Demand Response Modelling, Residential Electricity, Human Behaviour



1. Introduction Demand response is defined broadly as “changes in electricity usage by the end-use customers from their normal consumption pattern in response to changes in price of electricity over time, or to incentive payment designed to induce lower electricity use at times of high wholesale market price or when system reliability is jeopardized” [USDOE, 2006]. Demand response resource is simple the magnitude of load reduction that occur when demand response signal is given. One of the main objectives of demand response analysis is to determine this resource during demand response event for the purpose of the event analysis and program evaluation. Two key measurement components are essential to the determination of demand response resource.

Baseline – the consumption or demand that would have occurred, if the demand response had not taken place. Responsive Load – the observed consumption or demand that occurs when the demand response signal is given and the anticipated participation is achieved.

Since the responsive load during demand response event is usually known, the key challenge is how to accurately estimate the baseline. If the baseline and responsive load could be modelled, then demand response resource would simply be the mathematical difference between the baseline and the responsive load, as illustrated in figure 1. 2000 Responsive Load

Load (kW)

1600

Baseline

1200

Demand Response Impact

800 400 0 1

3

5

7

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Time (Hours)

Figure 1: An illustration of demand response resource estimation problem The demand response resources is usually estimated at an aggregate. In the residential sector, a better understanding of the customer behaviour or the usage behaviour of the different components of the residential load may also be required. One of the main barriers to residential demand response is the lack of proper understanding of residential customers’ behaviour in responding to demand response requests [DRRC, 2007]. There is a concern among demand response practitioners that demand response in the residential sector may simply move the peak problem with scale from one point in time to another. Load disaggregation or the behaviour of the different components of the residential load will be required to study this problem, especially the effect of load shifting models on the aggregate load. However, unavailability of appliance-level load data makes it difficult to study this problem. In the following sections, a generalized model to generate the load curve from the individual components of the residential load is presented. These data allow one to identify the relative contribution 2 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 173


of the different components of the residential load to the sector’s peak demand and the effectiveness of the individual households’ appliances in reducing the peak load on the electricity network. 2. Development of a Generic Appliance-based Load Curve The appliance-load curve model is a “bottom–up” approach of generating the aggregate load profile of residential customers in which the pattern of usage of individual appliances are represented. The bottom-up approach has been used, for example, in the load model by Capasso et al. [Capasso, 1994], where probability functions representing the relationship between the demand of a residential customer and the psychological and behavioural factors typical of households were established through the use of a Monte Carlo method. Estimating these relationships at the individual household level makes the Capasso et al. model highly complex because these factors are extremely subjective and not easily defined with any certainty at that level. In this study, the load curves of the major household appliances whose aggregate defines the load profile of residential customers were generated using the method of diversified demand. This method was developed by Arvidson in 1940 [Gönen, 2008] to estimate the load on distribution transformers when measurements of the actual load are limited. The diversified demand method has seen increased interest in recent times due to the revived interest in residential demand response and the need for component by component analysis of residential load. The method is straightforward and makes use of standard behaviour of the various types of household appliances as applied to a group of residential customers through use of statistical correlations. According to the diversified demand method, if a location can in aggregate be considered statistically representative of the residential customers as a whole, a load curve for the entire residential class of customers can be prepared. If the same technique is used for other classes of customers, similar load curves can be prepared [Gönen, 2008]. The construction of the appliance load curve requires certain load information to be available. Load saturation and load diversity data are needed for the class of customers whose load curve is to be generated. The diversified demand takes into account the fact that households may not be using all the electrical appliances that constitute the connected load of the house at the same time or to their full capacity. The load curve is constructed from the most probable load – the load that creates demand on the distribution facility. Definition of Terms The following terms relating to the power supply and demand are worth defining before the method of diversified demand is introduced. Diversified demand – the demand of the composite group, as a whole, of somewhat unrelated loads over a specified period of time [Gönen, 2008]. It describes the variation in the time of use (or the maximum use) of two or more loads. Maximum diversified demand – the maximum sum of the contribution of the individual demand to the diversified demand over a specific time interval. Connected load – the sum of the continuous ratings of load-consuming apparatus connected to the system. Feeder – the circuit which carries a large block of power from the service equipment to some points at which it is broken into smaller circuits. Residential feeder- a feeder that serves only residential customers i.e. households 3 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 174


Distribution transformer – the device use to converts electrical energy of higher voltage to a lower voltage, with frequency identical before and after the transformation. Hourly variation factor – the ratio of demand of a particular type of load co-incident with the group maximum demand to the maximum demand of that particular type of load [Gönen, 2008]. It is simply the percentage of appliance load that coincides with the group maximum load. Appliance saturation rate – the saturation rate of an appliance category is defined as the percentage of households that own at least one of a given appliance. 3. Modelling Approach Figure 2 illustrates the approach used to estimate the load curves of the individual household appliances. F1, F2, F3 and F4 represent typical residential feeders. H1, H2 …Hm are houses on a distribution transformer which are fed by the feeder F4. A1, A2 … An represent the different household appliances. The average maximum diversified demand of the appliance categories for a group of customers is calculated from equation 1. MDD ( av , max ) i = MDD

i

(1)

* ni

ni = m * si

(2)

MDD(av, max)i is the average maximum diversified demand of an appliance category for a group of customers, MDDi is the maximum diversified demand of an appliance per customer. ni is the number of appliance of that category, m represents the total number of households under consideration, and si represents the saturation rate of the appliance category. MDD depends on the total number of appliance n. The MDD corresponding to different n for some household appliances is presented in table 1 [Gönen, 2008]. As the number of appliances (n) increases the maximum diversified demand per customer (MDDi) decreases until it becomes a constant at large n values. The hourly maximum diversified demand, MDD(t, max)i is calculated from equation 3.

MDD ( t , max) i = MDD i * ni * fi (t )

(3)

fi(t) is the hourly variation factors of the appliance categories. fi(t) depend on the living habits of the individuals in a particular area and may differ from location to location. These factors define the pattern of the load curves. The maximum load on the distribution transformer at any time is given by the sum of the maximum diversified demand of the individual appliances and is determined from equation 4. N

N

i =1

i =1

MLT (t , max) = ∑ MDD (t , max) i = ∑ MDD i*ni*fi (t )

(4)

Where MLT(t, max) is the maximum load on the distribution transformer at any hour of the day, and N is number of appliance categories ( i.e. washing machine, heat pump, clothes dryer, etc.). 4. Case Study in Christchurch, New Zealand The generic household appliance load curve methodology described above was applied in a case study in Halswell, a small neighbourhood in Christchurch, New Zealand, with approximately 400 households. The Halswell neighbourhood was selected as a location for the case study due to its unique nature as the only area in 4 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 175


Christchurch which has its own residential feeder. There are no retail, commercial or industrial load on this feeder. It was selected to make it possible to compare the modelling results with the actual load measured by the utility.

Figure 2: Illustration of the modelling approach for a group of customers Table 1: Maximum 30 minutes average diversified demand per customers (kW) for given number (n) of appliance [Gönen, 2008]. Appliances Direct Water Heater Heat Pump Electric Heater Cloth Dryer Home Freezer Refrigerator Range Lighting & Misc.

n=1 1.1 4.50 7.00 4.30 0.30 0.18 2.30 1.10

n=5 0.37 3.00 4.00 1.80 0.13 0.07 0.90 0.65

n=10 0.22 3.00 3.50 1.50 0.10 0.06 0.70 0.60

n=20 0.18 2.80 3.20 1.20 0.08 0.05 0.60 0.55

n=40 0.14 2.80 3.20 1.00 0.08 0.05 0.50 0.52

n=80 0.1 2.80 3.20 1.00 0.08 0.05 0.50 0.52

n=100 0.1 2.80 3.20 1.00 0.08 0.05 0.50 0.52

The total number of each appliance category (ni) was determined by multiplying the total number of households (m = 400 in this case) by the appliance saturation rates (si). The appliance saturation rates for New Zealand [Electricity-Commission, 2007] were used for the location. The saturation rate of heat pumps was taken from a recent BRANZ study [French, 2008]. The saturation rate of electric heaters was adjusted to reflect the situation at the Halswell area. Halswell is a relatively new suburb in Christchurch with high penetration of heat pumps. The saturation rate of electric heater is expected to be lower than the New Zealand average as space heating is done mainly with heat pumps. Table 2 Shows the average maximum diversified demand estimated for 400 households in Halswell, neighbourhood in Christchurch. Estimation of the hourly variation factor, fi(t) The hourly variation factors, fi(t) reveal the behaviour characteristics of appliance usage and depends on the living habits of the individuals in a particular location. These living habits in turn are affected by the socio-economic factors such as the number of occupants in the individual households, their age and income. The hourly 5 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 176


variation factors for New Zealand were estimated from the results of the first two years report of New Zealand Household Energy End-Use Project (HEEP) [Stoeklein, 1998], and data from Orion Networks, the distribution company in the Christchurch area. The HEEP study measured interval electricity demand of household appliances in winter in some regions in New Zealand. The data from the HEEP pattern of usage and the information from Orion Network were used to estimate the hourly variation factors shown in figure 3. Figure 4 shows the hourly maximum diversified demand or the load profile estimated for the 400 households on the Halswell residential feeder compared with the actual profile measured by the utility in some selected days in winter 2006. Table 2: The average maximum diversified demand calculated for 400 households.

Appliances Domestic Water Heater Heat Pump* Electric Heater** Clothes Dryer Washing Machine Freezer Refrigerator Fridge/Freezer Microwave/Oven Range Lighting & Misc.

Appliance saturation rate (%) 87 35 93 34 95 64 31 80 78 93 100

Total number of appliance 348.00 140.00 372.00 136.00 380.00 256.00 124.00 320.00 312.00 372.00 400.00

Diversified demand per customer (kW) 0.72 2.60 3.00 1.20 1.20 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.50 0.55 0.54

Maximum diversified demand (kW) 250.56 364.00 1116.00 163.20 456.00 20.48 6.82 25.60 156.00 204.60 216.00

The appliance saturation rates were all taken from the a recent study by the electricity commission [Electricity-Commission, 2007] except * which was taken from recent BRANZ heat pump study [French, 2008]. ** Saturation of electric heater has been adjusted to reflect the situation as Halswell.

5. Activity Demand Response in Halswell In order to calculate the demand response resource of the Halswell neighbourhood, the households’ willingness to adjust their demand in a hypothetical supply constraint situation in winter obtained through survey in the area was combined with the appliance load data obtained through modelling (see table 3). The magnitude of the customers’ Activity Demand Response (ADR) was calculated from equation 5. The activity demand response of a customer group is defined here as the magnitude of load reduction obtained as a result of customers adjusting the usage of a given household appliance.

ADR

i(t )

= MDDi ( t ) * dx i

(5)

Where ADRi(t) represents customer activity demand response, and dxi is the likelihood that an appliance would be offered to participate in demand response. dxi was obtained by multiplying the probability that an appliance would be used during the peak hours by the likelihood that the usage of that same appliance would be adjusted in response to critical supply constraint at peak demand hours. The survey results are presented in table 3. The average activity demand response for the Halswell neighbourhood is shown in figure 5. The average activity demand response during the morning (07 – 08) peak 6 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 177


hours ranges from 2 kW for clothes dryer, representing just over 0.1% of the average morning peak load to as high as 50 kW for electric heater, representing 3.4% of the morning peak load. The highest activity demand response during the evening peak hours (18:00 – 19:00) was 97 kW obtained from heat pump, followed by 32.6 kW from washing machine, and 32.5 kW from electric heater. The average activity peak demand response was higher during the evening peak hours at 188.4 kW, representing 11% of the evening peak load, than 144 kW of the morning peak reduction, representing nearly 10% of the morning peak load. Table 4 shows the detail activity demand response during the peak hours. Figure 3: Hourly variation Factors determined for winter in New Zealand Heat Pump Percentage of Peak Load

Percentage of Peak Load

Clothes Dryer 100% 80% 60% 40% 20%

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

0% 1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

1

23

3

5

7

9

11



80% 60% 40% 20%

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

Time (hours)

19

21

19

21

23

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

Time (Hours)

23

Refrigerator

Washing Machine


100%

120%


17

100%

0%

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1

3

5

7

9

11 13 15 Tim e (hours)

17

19

21

23

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

Time (Hours)

Lighting & Misc.

Electric Heater 100%


100%


15

Fridge-Freezer

Domestic Water Heater (DWH) 100%

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1

23

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

Time (Hours)

Time (Hours) Microwave/Oven

Range


120%

80%


13

Time (Hours)

Time (Hours)

100%

60% 40% 20% 0%

80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

1

Time (Hours)

3

5

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Time (Hours)


Home Freezer 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

Time (hours)



Figure 4: Estimated load curve for the 400 households in Halswell compared with the measured load by the utility in winter, 2006. Estimated Diversified Demand

Measured Load-12/06/06

Measured Load-19/06/06

Measured Load -29/06/06

Load (kW)

2000 1600 1200 800 400 0 1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

Table 3: Likelihood of household appliance usage at the peak times and the corresponding demand response participation.

Appliances Cloth Dryer Computer Dishwasher Electric Kettle Hair Dryer Heat Pump Heated Towel Rail Microwave Electric Heaters Oven Range Spa Pool Stereo TV Vacuum Cleaner Washing Machine

Likelihood of Peak Usage (%)

Likelihood of Demand Response Participation (%)

Achievable Household Demand Response Participation (%)

Morning 8 15 12 65 46 46 32 44 21 9 12 2 10 16 17 33

Morning 33 42 37 13 31 26 41 22 33 49 42 15 33 32 35 42

Morning 3 8 6 10 18 15 16 12 8 6 6 0 4 6 7 17

Evening 12 36 31 61 4 59 26 49 18 47 47 4 6 70 12 21

Evening 33 46 36 19 35 19 42 17 28 40 24 15 33 19 35 42

Evening 5 21 14 15 2 14 13 10 6 23 14 1 3 17 5 11

In a further analysis, the modelling result above was compared with domestic water heating load that are ripple-controlled by the distribution company in the Halswell area during critical evening peak hours. The result of this comparison is shown in figure 6. The customer activity demand response was higher than the domestic hot water heating load that is ripple-controlled during the evening peak hours indicating the potential of voluntary customer demand response to maintain system reliability.


Percentage Peak Reduction


15% Washing Machine Clothes Dryer

10%

Range Microwave

5%

Electric Heater Heat Pump

0% Morning (07-08)

All

Evening (18 -19 )

Peak demand Period

Figure 5: Average activity demand response for 400 households at the morning and the evening peak hours. Table 4: Peak demand response (kW) for 400 households in Halswell, Christchurch. Peak Time

Percentage of Evening Peak Load

7.00 8.00 Morning Average % of Morning Peak 18.00 19.00 Evening Average % of Evening Peak

12.0%

Washing Machine 39.5 30.2

Clothes Dryer 1.1 2.9

3.7 5.8

5.6 8.8

Electric Heater 55.4 44.6

34.9

2.0

4.7

7.2

50.0

45.0

143.8

2.4%

0.1%

0.3%

0.5%

3.4%

3.1%

9.9%

32.6 32.6

2.4 1.8

28.6 8.6

6.4 4.7

36.8 28.1

113.4 80.6

220.3 156.4

32.6

2.1

18.6

5.5

32.5

97.0

188.4

1.9%

0.1%

1.1%

0.3%

1.9%

5.8%

11.2%

Range Microwave

Heat Pump 49.7 40.4

155.0 132.7

All

11.3%

8.5% 8.0% 4.7%

5.5%

4.0% 0.0% Modelling Result Ripple-Controlled Ripple Controlled Ripple Controlled Load: 12/06/06 Load: Load: 19/06/2006 29/06/2006

Figure 6: Comparison of the modelling results and ripple- controlled domestic water h eating load during the evening peak hours in some selected days in winter 2006. 9 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 180


Demand Response in Christchurch In order to calculate the potential of the activity demand response in Christchurch, the peak demand reduction obtained for the 400 households in Halswell was projected onto the total number households in the Christchurch city (approximately 131,833 households). The resulting load curve after activity demand response redistribution was compared with the measured load on the entire Orion’s Distribution Network on the 19th of June 2006. Note that the:

Measured load is a controlled load, as the Orion network had a capacity limit of about 600 MW in 2006, and the peak load is controlled to remain below this limit. Load on the entire network has all customers (industrial, commercial and residential).

It was shown that the average morning peak load could be reduced with the voluntary activity demand response by 44 MW, representing 7.3% of the morning peak load on the entire Orion’s network, while the evening peak load could be reduced by 57.00 MW, representing 9.3%. Figure 8 shows the reduction in peak load if the results obtained for the Halswell neighbourhood is projected onto the total number of households in Christchurch. Christchurch. This result is based on the assumption that all the households in Christchurch will behave the same way as the customers in the Halswell neighbourhood. Indeed a random demand response of households in Christchurch gave results similar to that of the Halswell Halswell neighbourhood. 800

Load (MW)

600 400 200 0 1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

Time (Hours) Actual Load 19/06/06 Load After Demad Response Figure 7: Impact of voluntary activity demand response on the entire Orion’s Networks 6. Conclusions This paper reports a generic methodology for generating load curves of the individual components (appliances) that make up the aggregate load on a typical residential feeder and estimate the impact of appliance demand response on the load curve of the utility. The results of the survey conducted in Christchurch about customers’ willingness to adjust their demand in a critical peak demand periods were used as input into the model together with appliance saturation and load diversity to estimate 10 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 181


the voluntary activity demand response on a typical residential feeder. The results show that nearly 10% reduction in the morning peak load could be achieved. The evening peak load could be reduced by just over 11%. It is quite interesting to note that this voluntary activity demand response is comparable to the water heating load that is usually rippled controlled by the electricity distribution company in Halswell in order to maintain system reliability. This suggests that, when customers are given information and encouragement they would voluntary act to reduce their demand to ensure system reliability. 7. References CAPASSO, A., GRATTIERI, W., LAMEDICA, R., PRUDENZI, A. (1994) A Bottom-up Approach to Residential Load Modelling IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 9, :No. 2. DRRC (2007) Understanding Customer Behaviour to Improve Demand Response Delivery in California PIER Demand Response Research Centre Research Opportunity Notice DRRC RON -3 ELECTRICITY-COMMISSION (2007) New Zealand Efficiency Potential Study Vol. 1 Electricity Commission Wellington, New Zealand FRENCH, L. (2008) Active Cooling and Heat Pump Use in New Zealand. Study Report No. 186, BRANZ, Wellington GÖNEN, T. (2008) Electric Power Distribution System Engineering. 2nd edition Taylor & Francis Group. STOEKLEIN, A., POLLARD. A, ISAACS, N., BISHOP, S., JAMES, B., RYAN, G., SANDERS, I. (1998) Energy End-Use And Socio/Demographic Occupant Characteristics of New Zealand Households BRANZ New Zealand Publication. USDOE (2006) Benefits of Demand Response in Electricity Markets and Recommendations for achieving them Report to the United State Congress Pursuant to the Section 1252 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, DOE, U.S.



Harrison, Frances (author) Ex-Waitakere City Council Email: [email protected] Lawton, Maggie (presenter) Director, Future by Design Email: [email protected]

Title:


Theme: Embedding Sustainability



Harrison, Frances (author) Ex-Waitakere City Council Email: [email protected] Lawton, Maggie (presenter) Director, Future by Design Email: [email protected]

Title:


Theme: Embedding Sustainability

ABSTRACT: Waitakere City Council’s vision is for residents to actively participate in sustainable living, including water conservation. The council is, through its EcoWater division, encouraging a 25% reduction in mains water demand by 2025. Innovative social marketing initiatives have been set up to educate, support and motivate residents to modify daily behaviours towards greater sustainability. They have also identified environmental leaders across differing age groups who encourage others in their communities to lead more sustainable lives. Water Ambassadors Kids Club (WAKC), aimed at children aged 5-15 years, was a blend of online interaction, events, education and publicity components and has been running for the past 18 months. There are currently more than 1300 members including international ones. This environmental programme is warmly supported by members’ families and schools and injects elements of fun and personal development into daily life. A group of competent public speakers, some as young as 7 years old, went out into the community to advocate for living sustainably in terms of water. The Water Ambassadors of NZ (WANZ) was a network of individuals aged from 16 years, community groups, consultants and businesses with an interest in using water more sustainably. It provides access to research papers, opinion pieces, news on new technologies and profiles for members. Predominantly online based, there were plans to develop more opportunities for members to meet and work together directly. A collaborative approach with Waitakere’s largest retirement village (a member of WANZ) has seen dramatic changes there in water-use and waste minimisation. Raintanks for rainharvesting to supply water to 100 flourishing individual gardens have been set up and waste to landfill has been dramatically reduced. The approach has been so successful that Vision Waitakere Gardens won the supreme award at the Auckland Regional Council 2010 Sustainable Environment Awards. Waitakere fostered people taking sustainability advocacy to other people.

INTRODUCTION Waitakere City Council’s water demand management goal of reducing reticulated water consumption 25 % by 2025 is needed in order to defer the construction of a new water supply infrastructure which would be economically and environmentally costly, by 26 years. Most people drink less than five percent of the drinking water supplied to their homes; the rest is used for nondrinking purposes and then does down the drain. Reticulated drinking water is a valuable resource. It requires expensive collection, treatment and distribution to get it from its source to each home. Our water supplies currently consist of the Auckland dams and springs plus the Waikato river pipeline. These supplies have a finite capacity and at regular times in the near future growing demand in the region means Auckland will require upgrades and a new water source. Such a source will be extremely costly, around $300m, and that cost must be borne by consumers and the 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 184


environment. Therefore any initiatives that can reduce consumption will defer the need for future capital expenditure and this will benefit consumers financially and environmentally.

Water Source and Treatment Augmentation Options 2010

Figure 1: Timeline for additional water supply infrastructure expenditure (Source: WaterCare Services Ltd)

EcoWater considered programmes that had been run by suppliers in Australia. Some were not appropriate because they had a much higher percentage of industrial and horticulture use. Domestic water use accounts for 81% of Waitakere’s water use and is 12% of the total water supplied to the region. Waitakere’s use was already low following campaigns to reduce public waste going back to the ‘big drought’ of 1994/95. The Sydney experience showed that using a range of different options such as raintank rebates, water-efficient devices and public education was required to lower water use. Literature Review Sydney Water is helping its community and businesses use water wisely - saving 24% of Sydney’s water needs by 2015. They have a broad range of programmes and campaigns in place, some of which have been running for several years; outdoor water conservation programmes, raintank rebates, promoting water-efficient household devices, subsidising residential retrofits and using targeted business programmes for manufacturing, hospitality and schools. Key results are detailed in the “Water Conservation & Recycling Implementation Report 2003-2004” (Sydney Water Corporation, 2004). The City of Melbourne has a target per capita reduction of 40% by 2020, which equates to a 12% reduction in absolute savings. Their strategy, WaterMark: Towards sustainable water management by 2020” (City of Melbourne, 2003) gives an overview of their proposed methodology. Their key strategies are: council leading by example, regulation, education, and monitoring. The On Tap report (Ministry for the Environment, 2009) looked at water use from the householder’s perspective; attitudes to water, behaviours and barriers and incentives to action on water conservation in New Zealand. Findings echoed what Waitakere City has known for sometime; that New Zealanders regard water as precious yet plentiful and that wasting it is bad but that they have a right to use it as they wish, as often as they want. They do not appreciate the real situation. New Zealanders do not want to modify their behaviour as that is seen as an intrusion and they have limited 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 185


interest in changing anything for environmental reasons. New Zealanders in urban areas (especially Auckland) generally feel that it rains all the time so there are no drinking water supply issues. They do not realise how much water they use or which activities use the most but will pay attention to water-use information and make one-off changes, such as buying a more water-efficient washing machine, than make consistent behavioural change. Saving and frugality is seen as an important principle but not if it interferes with lifestyle. Project Oracle, TNS Conversa (2008) investigated Water Usage and Conservation across the Auckland Region. It was commissioned by the local network operators who needed to review attitudes to water conservation and usage in order to develop strategies to delay significant future water infrastructure investment. It found that the level of awareness in greater Auckland of water conservation as an environmental issue was relatively low and recommended a communications campaign to achieve desired awareness and behavioural change objectives. Any public campaign should focus on raising awareness and the importance of water conservation in terms of future infrastructure decisions. No households viewed water as a scarce resource so campaigns needed to focus on infrastructure rather than availability. Only nine percent of households saw themselves as high water users, and re-educating households around the real impact of simple water conservation measures, such as turning off a tap while brushing teeth or shaving, was necessary. Figure 2: Total end use per household (Source: BRANZ)

Both businesses and households had a part to play in achieving more sustainable practices, particularly in installing more water-efficient technologies as this was viewed as the ‘easy’ option rather than true behavioural change.

The BRANZ Water Use in Auckland Households report (Heinrich. M, 2008) suggested campaigns could focus on washing machine and toilet technologies for indoor use along with promoting more water-efficient irrigation systems for outdoor use. Awareness and behaviour are a little different in Waitakere. The council and its water supply department EcoWater had been running public awareness campaigns since 1994 to address the information, awareness and action issues for residents. Water use is down ten litres per person per day in Waitakere, despite a growing population. From the research detailed above it was decided to develop a comprehensive and multilayered programme to promote water demand management.

EMBEDDING SUSTAINABILITY: A HOLISTIC APPROACH Waitakere used an integrated campaign approach to drinking water conservation across sub-units of EcoWater (consents, water supply, wastewater, stormwater). This approach was also flexible enough to link into other sustainability initiatives such as promotion of cycleways as transport alternatives, cleaner production and climate change projects.



ThreeWaters Newsletter urban edition This publication went out with each water bill on a six-monthly basis. It contained key water-efficiency messages, activities by EcoMatters Environment Trust (a contractor) and projects involving the council and the community. Legal requirements were highlighted and any consumer campaigns to assist residents to make water-efficient buying decisions were announced. Working with EcoMatters Environment Trust EcoWater promoted EET’s household water audits via its communication activities. EcoMatters distributed any key brochures that the council felt was appropriate. Building Tours Water-efficiency messages were easily presented face to face during Waitakere Central building tours. The building provided a rationale and vehicle for water collection, re-use and reduce messages. There were opportunities for the public, including schools, university students and other visiting groups to ask questions and be acquainted with our current demand campaigns. Water infrastructure and conservation seminars were offered as part of the tours. Touch Poll surveys These were conducted at EcoDay to keep track of the public interest in water conservation and to see how our efforts at promotion were going. They were valuable in terms of shaping direction of programmes each year. In the 2010 report it was clear that residents wanted water efficiency programmes to continue once Watercare Services took control of water supply and wastewater services. Brochures We produced a comprehensive range of brochures specifically promoting water efficiency to reduce demand but also linked in with stormwater and particularly wastewater and showed the linkages between the two as well as the relationship between water and energy. The brochures mostly targeted homeowners and other residents in order to educate/inform/alert them to current issues and solutions. There is considerable ignorance amongst the populace regarding how they get their water, what happens to it, how much they are actually needing to use and how to cut down on wastage of city supply. They proved valuable at trade shows, community events, clubs, schools and were made available to plumbers where appropriate. EcoDay has been a key event on Waitakere City’s calendar for eight years. Residents and visitors to the city look forward to the community and commercial displays, activities and seminars on how to live more sustainably. All key water-efficiency messages were promoted, there were opportunities to hear from the public of any obstacles to their continuing care with water and it has been an effective vehicle for public surveys on message delivery. Each year EcoWater has had a main display covering the three waters but in 2010 this year part of the display booth was given over to the Water Ambassadors Kids Club where members as young as six years old competently manned their space and delivered messages, interacting with their own community. The children took responsibility for information distribution and delivered seminar presentations on wise wateruse; effective ambassadors at a family and community level. Working with plumbers and IQPs Anything which affects the city’s drinking water supply was treated as a priority. We were therefore active in developing relationships with plumbers, plumbers’ merchants and Building Warrant Of Fitness companies (IQPs) in order to achieve greater distribution of our messages, especially backflow prevention for residences and businesses. Feedback suggests that EcoWater was seen as helpful and consultative to the plumbing industry. In turn the 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 187


plumbing industry was willing to support our water-efficiency efforts by distributing printed information and alerting us to opportunities to promote conservation. Feedback also told us that other water suppliers who do not use a consultative and collaborative approach were not appreciated and were often viewed with mistrust. EcoWater was an exhibitor at a Plumbing Expo in Waitakere. It was the first time we had participated and it gave us an opportunity to answer consent issues as well as promote water-saving messages. Sustainability messages were not promoted in isolation and new alliances were forged. There was also interest in developing the concept of adult water ambassadors to promote good-news stories, education/awareness and incentives via a website with a specific look.. This approach had been successful with the kids club.

Promoting water-efficient devices Water bills inserts We ran an insert into the water bills providing an overview of options around the home where water-savings could be made by using water-efficient products and services. This showed customers that there are many ways to save on water charges by saving on water use. We also provided themed inserts to promote particular technologies such as water-efficient showerheads, toilets, washing machines, raintanks and solar water heating. Website/Internet We created a directory of suppliers of water-efficient products and services as a starting point for residents who were ready to buy more sustainable technologies. We also created a water-conservation character/ spokesperson in the shape of a water drop to help avoid preachiness in our messages. Splash had his own webpages explaining his role and was very animated in various poses to lend a sense of movement and fun to the messages. Eventually he became key ‘spokesperson’ for the Water Ambassadors NZ network and appeared on all promotional materials for schools and consumers. His ‘son’ Splosh was key spokesperson for the Water Ambassadors Kids Club. Using social media The council moved from being a somewhat one-way communicator in terms of water to encouraging two-way communication involving WEB 2 responses and other forms of participation from the public. Messages concerning the three waters (water supply, wastewater and stormwater) were repeated many times via all available channels. Messages were often integrated between the ‘waters’ especially the connection between water use and wastewater. The council’s ‘water messenger’ Splash was used. Splash developed his own Facebook page Splash Nz and fan page and regularly commented or advised on Twitter @Splash4Nz. Fans responded by posting photos of the council’s demand management activities where they involved a public event, thus virally spreading and reinforcing the messages within the community and beyond. Links were created between the council website and social media channels. The use of Splash on Twitter also identified other organisations interested in our conservation work. We followed them and they followed us. This gave us greater access to materials we could repackage for our own use. Some of that found its way to our webpages and Facebook., thereby ensuring we always had new information or videos to offer. Displays at customer services Rainbarrels as a means of waterwise gardening were promoted at customer services with a typical rainbarrel setup and flowers, supported by our waterwise and rainbarrels brochures. This generated interest and enquiries from staff and visitors alike. Banners and product display continued with solar water heating promotions too. 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 188


Promoting water-wise gardening

MEGA Mitre 10 store on Lincoln Road entered an informal agreement with the council to profile waterconserving products for outdoor use. A display was set up in the garden centre prior to labour weekend, council staff and a local landscape designer offered free information and brochures to highlight ways to use less drinking water for outdoor tasks, such as using soil conditioner, mulch, worm farms and compost bins, handheld hoses with attachments, rainbarrels to collect water and planting drought-tolerant plants. Advertisements were placed in local newspapers and flyers distributed at strategic places such as libraries. Garden Clubs heard about our commitment to promote waterwise gardening practices and requested a speaker for garden club meetings. This enabled us to pass on valuable key messages and information on gardening but also to pass on key messages concerning infrastructure and the water ambassador programmes. Question and answer sessions were well supported. Raintanks for homes have been promoted through consumer promotional campaigns, brochures, community information evenings, such as one held at Swanson in conjunction with Project Twin Stream’s Sustainable Swanson and the Eco Design Advisory Service. As a result many residents now understand WHY there is a need for a demand management programme and personally support it.

Education Education of adults and children on water demand issues has been a priority and has been implemented by community seminars on rain-harvesting, brochures, consumer campaigns, an online kids club and adult information site as well as incentives and rebates. Water demand management social marketing campaigns educate customers on the amount of drinking water that is “wasted”, the benefits of using water wisely, and inform customers of how they can reduce the amount of water they use. Testing ideas We were very fortunate to have access to one of Waitakere’s enviroschools, Tirimoana School, as a ‘laboratory’ for testing messages and various channels. There were four visits to the school to promote demand management. The first introduced the issues and various ways to conserve water. The second elaborated on this and involved artwork produced to highlight desirable behaviours. The third taught water supply infrastructure and tested proposed educational posters along with the water ambassadors kids club concept. The fourth presented copies of the finished water supply posters to the children which they had had a hand in developing and also reinforced sustainability messages. The school also sought experiential education via two well-regarded building tours of Waitakere Central’s sustainable buildings. This relationship with the school was definitely a win-win for all. EcoWater has also advised Laingholm School on installation of a raintank for supplying toilets and irrigating the playing field. Colleges also made use of building tours and water seminars provided by EcoWater staff. Water Education Cluster Group Demand management achieved a higher profile with this group after EcoWater was included in one of their seminars for teachers. A major bulge in registrations for the Water Ambassadors Kids Club was a result after a presentation on educational resources was made. There was also interest in having EcoWater staff come and teach infrastructure in the classrooms. Requests came from out-of-zone schools too but due to lack of resourcing we were unable to assist. There continues to be a need for this sort of practical assistance in the future. Speaking engagements From time to time, EcoWater was asked to supply presenters for community meetings and to focus on waterrelated issues. There have been two speaking engagements to two Waitakere-based floral and garden clubs 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 189


plus a rain-harvesting information evening in Swanson. These opportunities to deliver messages directly to the public are invaluable. Question and answer sessions are well-supported. Water infrastructure, water efficiency at home and water-wise gardening are always included in the presentations.

Community advocacy Vision Waitakere Gardens EcoWater supplied this large retirement village with a 3000 litre raintank followed, after the success of the first, with a 5000 litre tank. These tanks are used to harvest rainwater from the village roof for use on the extensive fruit, vegetable and flower gardens. The rainwater is also used for the worm farm and hydroponics sections. This rain harvesting means the garden saves 45,000 litres of drinking water per year and thus saves money on the water bills. However, the village’s sustainable water practises go further. Residents are keen distributors of water efficiency messages and actively supported our community information evenings as well as running tours of their gardening complex. A number of residents are actively seeking opportunities to share sustainability messages with visiting groups from the wider community. From time to time they conduct tours of their extensive gardens and demonstrate how to use water wisely in the hydroponics and propagation sections, the worm farm and flower beds and vegetable plots. It’s an opportunity for members to demonstrate community leadership, share their passion for gardening and pass on information to school children and other members of the public on how they too can be live more sustainably. Waitakere Gardens residents are true sustainability ambassadors and this year received the top award for Sustainable Living from the Auckland Regional Council. Community Gardens Non-potable water supply is usually a key consideration for residents establishing community gardens. A 10,000 litre tank was installed on reserve land in Epping Road, Henderson after residents requested assistance in implementing their ideas for sustainable gardening. The council donated this tank and its installation and one of the adjoining homes supplies the water from its roof to the tank. This is an example of real community and council teamwork. Water Ambassadors Kids Club In March 2009 the council launched the Water Ambassadors Kids Club. This was an online based programme which targeted five to fifteen olds who are interested in caring for their water source and happy to share this information with their families and friends. The website at www.waterambassadors.co.nz provided learning resources including links to other water demand and environmental websites for children. It also encouraged them to post stories and pictures concerning their efforts to minimise wastage of drinking water around their homes. Each child who registered received a membership kit containing fun and instruction activities, such as measuring water use around the home, games and puzzles as well as informative collectables. In this way, sustainable use of water became a topic around the entire family, parents learnt alongside their children. Web-hosting feedback indicated that the site had a conversion rate of 34% visitors to registered members, which is double the usual response rate. At the end of September 2010 there were more than 1370 members including some international ones. The kids club was not designed to be limited to online activities. Instead we wanted our members to become true ambassadors, taking the messages out of the home and into the community. A team of public speakers formed, ranging in age from seven to ten years. They wrote their own speeches to deliver at public events, school assemblies and via YouTube videos. One member was so active he received a certificate of appreciation from the city in recognition of his sustainability advocacy. 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 190


Water Ambassadors NZ This online network was created as a vehicle for all adults interested in promoting sustainable use of water to share ideas, technologies and research. Members contributed opinion pieces and information on new technologies. How-to videos were hosted on the site as well as free downloadable resources, links to key research papers and latest water industry news. Members had access to promotional materials to promote water-wise practices and key trade events. Secondary school children and university students also used the site as a resource. Membership included students, suppliers and manufacturers, local government groups, community groups, sustainability consultants. Members were also invited to take part in the council’s Retrofit Your Home programme to assist homeowners to have healthier and more efficient homes in the areas of water and energy. The good news is that recently, Waitakere residents have started using their precious drinking water more wisely and a reduction in use has occurred. In 2007 each person used 167 litres per day and that is now down to 157 litres, a drop of 10 litres per person per day. Thousands of members of the community have identified themselves as keen to know more and display leadership in advocacy for sustainable practices with drinking water.

CONCLUSION Embedding sustainability principles into the Waitakere community has taken sixteen years, consistency of messages and flexibility of implementation. It has involved residents of all ages, businesses, industry specialists, schools and families. The council has used every communication channel at its disposal and created innovative new ways to engage with residents. Above all it has required genuine teamwork with all parties involved- one vision but many ways to reach the goal but it is succeeding in moving towards the city’s demand management goal. Our residents now understand what they can do for themselves to live more sustainably and the increased sense of community spirit that springs from working together to achieve this goal is a reward, along with the results of decreased water demand, and the associated benefits of decreased wastewater volume, cleaner streams and reduced wastage. Even though the council, as catalyst, exists no longer, the eco city was proud to lead and now sustainability advocacy is truly in the hands of its communities.



REFERENCES

City of Melbourne, (2003). WaterMark: Towards sustainable water management by 2020. Melbourne, Australia. Author. Heinrich, M (2008). Water use in Auckland households: Auckland water use study final report. Auckland, New Zealand: BRANZ Ltd and WaterCare Services. Ministry for the Environment, (2009). On Tap: Attitudes, behaviours, and perceptions of household water use – informing demand management. Wellington: Ministry for the Environment. Retrieved from http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/water/on-tap-household-water-use/on-tap-informing-demadmanagement.pdf Sydney Water. (2010). Water conservation and recycling implementation 2008-09. Retrieved from http://www.sydneywater.com.au/Publications/Reports/WaterConservationAnnualReport.pdf

TNS Conversa. (2008). Project Oracle: Water usage and conservation across the Auckland Region.. Waitakere City: WaterCare Services Ltd.



Havenga, Dr. Jan (Presenter) Simpson, Mr. Zane The University of Stellenbosch, Centre for Supply Chain Management, Department of Logistics Private Bag X1, Matieland, 8000, South Africa Tel: +2784 588 8884, [email protected]

Title: Research priorities for sustainable branch line revitalisation in South Africa Theme: Beyond today’s infrastructure ABSTRACT In June 2010 the holding company of South Africa’s national railroad announced its intent to concession its 7300 km of branch lines in an attempt to focus on its core business while unlocking potential value for smaller operators. The research presented in this paper demonstrates the importance, when taking decisions on the concessioning or closure of branch lines, of understanding potential current and future flows, as well as considering the impact on sustainability by analysing freight transport externalities and road usage costs. The research results reveal considerable volume opportunities for branch lines which, if captured, will significantly reduce both the direct transport costs for this traffic as well as externality charges for the economy. This will therefore not only render rural economies more competitive but also enable the provision of more sustainable freight transport to these communities. The research approach will be of value to researchers in both developed and developing economies to inform the continuous debate regarding the role of rail in sustainable transport provision. 1. INTRODUCTION In June 2010 the holding company of South Africa’s national railroad announced its intent to concession some 7000 km of branch lines in an attempt to focus on its core business while unlocking potential value for smaller operators (Ash, 2010). The appropriate management of this process is critical to facilitate the development of South Africa’s “second” economy, specifically the drive to develop a considerable number of South Africa’s 3 million subsistence farmers, who are often within geographic reach of a branch line, to commercial farmers. In addition, some of the lines are currently not utilised and recommissioning of some, if not all, of the lines will lead to job creation. The debate surrounding branch lines is not unique to South Africa. As a case in point, the New South Wales Grain Freight Review (Australian Government, 2009) recommended in 2009 that the majority of the region’s grain branch lines should be retained, and also highlighted the important funding roles of both government and industry. The study highlighted that the cost of road provision and maintenance will be well above the capital injection and maintenance expenditure to keep branch lines operational. In addition, it is between one-and-a half to two times more expensive to transport grain to a consolidation centre by road compared to rail. The revitalisation of branch lines as a means of providing sustainable local freight transport solutions is also a continuous endeavour in the United 1


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Kingdom (see for example Merseyside Transport Partnership, 2009; Devon County Council, 2002) and the United States (see for example Wisconsin & Southern Railroad Co, 2004; Connecticut Department of Transport, 2010). This proposed shift to rail transport is aligned with the global renaissance in rail (Friends of the earth, 2000: 5), mainly driven by the desire to increase the sustainability of freight transport by reducing associated intrinsic and extrinsic costs. In the United Kingdom, a modal shift from road to rail transport is regarded as one of the government’s core policy goals to promote environmentally sustainable development (Haywoood, 2007). The differences between road and rail transport costs are significant. According to Ballou (2004: 168) in the United States the total cost of road transport is as much as 12 times more than that of rail transport. Kwan & Knutsen (2006) established that with one gallon of fuel one ton of goods can be carried only 96 km by truck compared to 325 km by rail. In addition, road transport costs are mostly variable and exposed to volatile exogenous core cost drivers for example the price of fuel (Pietrantonio and Pelkmans, 2004; Havenga et al., 2009.) The research presented in this paper reveals the significant potential volumes available for transport on identified branch lines and suggest that both from a logistics cost savings and development perspective, identified branch lines can be a viable business in the future if higher densities can be achieved on rail. The externality challenge has prompted reaction from South Africa’s Department of Transport (DoT) when it considered the condition of rural roads. The DoT announced intentions to reduce axle limits on rural roads in a bid to relieve the burden on the country’s secondary road infrastructure (Fleetwatch, 2009). The impacts of externalities as well as proposed legislative changes in axle limits are presented. From a development perspective, stakeholders need to reconsider branch line divestment if these lines give rural traffic access to main lines (Bechtel SAIC Company LLC, 2006: 8). This link between branch line and corridor traffic for South Africa is also discussed. 2. RESEARCH APPROACH In order to analyse branch line potential, current and potential rail and road freight transport volumes and costs had to be determined. Rail data is available from the national railroad, but road data is not measured officially in South Africa. In order to develop road data an extensive freight flow model was developed for South Africa. This was done through the gravity modelling of total freight flows in the economy based on supply and demand data for 62 commodity groups and 356 magisterial districts, and subtracting rail, coastal, pipeline and conveyer belt flows. The remaining flows are road flows of commodities between specific origin-destination pairs which were then translated into costs. This granularity was critical to enable detailed analysis of South Africa’s freight transport demand. The model also contains a 30-year forecast. (Refer Havenga, 2007, for a detailed description of the model). To determine potential traffic for the branch lines, road flows in the vicinity of branch lines were also analysed. As mentioned, traffic flows in South Africa is determined as flows between magisterial districts (MD’s). For each magisterial district a centre point is determined. In order to analyse potential branch line flows these centre points are related to the rail network. This relationship is illustrated in Figure 1. The resulting flows are classified into four network groups as summarised in Table 1. In cases where the branch line is very short or where traffic would only need to use a short portion of the branch line before connecting to the core line, the assumption was made that any potential traffic of this nature would rather use road transport to connect to the core line. 2


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Externalities were calculated by using the freight flow information developed by Havenga (2007) and Jorgenson’s methodology. Because of a serious lack of freight transport cost information in South Africa that evaluates externalities Jorgenson (2009: (2009: 2) investigated external transport costs in a number of countries where localised or general conditions are considered to be similar to South Africa. To achieve a representative cross-section of South African transport a group of rural branch line railways and roads in KwaZulu Natal were examined and conclusions drawn that were used to make comparisons to other important corridors or to rural areas.

Figure 1: The relationship between magisterial districts and branch lines Table 1: C Classification lassification of total potential branch line related traffic Code

Description for potential traffic

Flow

B

Branch - Originates and ends on the same branch line

B1 to B4

BB

Branch-to-branch: ranch: Utilises two branch lines, but not the core line

B1 to B2

Branch-to-core: ore: O Originates riginates on a branch line and terminates on the core line (or vice versa)

B1 to C1

Branch-core-branch: Originates on a branch line, travels some distance on the core line and then utilises a second branch line

B1 to B3

BC CB BCB

or


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3. RESEARCH RESULTS Potential branch line traffic Of South Africa’s 935 million tons of total surface freight transported, 66 million tons or 7% travels next to or on branch lines. (This figure is similar in tonkilometre terms, with approximately 8.5% of tonkilometres related to branch lines). The relationship between this traffic and total traffic in South Africa is depicted in Table 2. Table 2: Relationship between total traffic and potential branch line related traffic Total SA Total corridor traffic Potential traffic that would require a proportion of branch line use: BB BC CB BCB

Tons (million) 935 240 66

Tonkilometres (billion) 315 168 27

Average Transport Distance 337 701 398

7 23 34 2

1 11 15 1

75 506 460 490

This means that if branch lines were closed 66 million tons of traffic that could be transported by rail will be captured by road. Of this traffic, 57 million tons (BC+CB) are potential core line traffic and can contribute to the densification (and cost savings) of the core lines. Of the 66 million tons only 9.1 million tons are currently on rail, as summarised in Table 3. Table 3: Rail market share of potential branch line traffic BB

Total Tons (millions) 7.3

Rail Tons (millions) 1.8

Total Tonkilometres (billions) 0.5

Rail Tonkilometres (billions) Neg

Road ATD 69.1

Rail ATD 21.8

BC

23.4

4.1

10.5

1.3

449.1

324.5

CB

33.7

3.2

14.5

1.0

431.1

302.9

2.0

0.1

1.0

Neg

466.9

469.9

66.4

9.1

26.5

2.4

BCB All B inclusive

Only 11% of potential tons shipped encompass a single branch line system (BB). As average transport distances are low for traffic that originates and terminates on the same branch line, only 1.9% of potential tonkilometres are enclosed within a single branch line system. The 2008 cost to transport branch line related traffic amounted to R19 billion (or 11% of South Africa’s 2008 transport bill of R171 billion). The branch line transport bill for rail is less than R1 billion (0.5%) of this total. Rail’s role in branch line related transport is therefore currently negligible with 14% of tons, 9% of tonkilometres and 0.5% of costs on rail (

Figure 2). It however also implies that there is significant opportunity available.

4


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Figure 2: Rail’s negligible role in branch line related traffic

This potential could be realised by improving rail’s service offering (which is a relatively small cost compared to the fact that the infrastructure already exists) but more importantly through measuring and costing for externalities (inter alia through legislation) to ensure sustainable service provision to to this traffic. Switching scenarios – shifting rural freight to rail Two scenarios for the switching of road traffic next to branch lines were conducted (Table 4), considering variable market share percentages per cargo type. These two scenarios considered the most optimistic achievement of rail (scenario 1, being able to target short distance freight and high market shares), as well as a realistic target (scenario 2, being longer distance freight, with current market shares increased slightly to round numbers). Table 4: Market share scenarios for switching traffic to branch lines Scenario 1 = High switching scenario with ATD>100km

Scenario 2 = Low switching scenario with ATD>500km

Automotive

0%

Automotive

0%

Break Bulk

50%

Break Bulk

10%

Dry Bulk

75%

Dry Bulk

25%

Liquid Bulk

25%

Liquid Bulk

0%

Perishables

0%

Perishables

0%

Of the 57 million tons of potential traffic next to branch lines a maximum of 29.3 million tons could move to rail. Of this, this, only 4 million tons will be enclosed within the same branch line system. The rest of the traffic will require the core network. If this traf traffic fic switches, total branch line related traffic will be 38.4 million tons ((rail rail market share of 58%) of which 85% (32.6 million tons) will require the core network (Table 5).


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Table 5: Scenarios for switching traffic (million tons) Total tons BB BC CB BCB All B

7.3 23.4 33.7 2.0 66.4

Total rail tons 1.8 4.1 3.2 0.1 9.1

Switchable rail tons scenario 1 4.0 9.5 14.7 1.0 29.3

Switchable rail tons scenario 2 1.3 2.6 3.4 0.3 7.6

Total rail tons after scenario 1 5.8 13.6 17.9 1.1 38.4

Total rail tons after scenario 2 3.1 6.8 6.6 0.4 16.8

There is therefore significant opportunity available to rail through improved service provision. Appropriate regulation regulation could, however, further improve this position. One option currently being considered is the reduction of the axle mass limit on rural roads to decrease the wear and tear on roads. Cost impact of proposed axle limit change

The road transport axle limit reduction from 9 tons to 8 tons per axle will have a considerable effect on transport costs. costs. This would require a consignment of 18 tons, which can currently be transported on a double axle truck, to be transported either by two trucks or a 3 axle truck. This will greatly increase the number of vehicles required, number of trips, and running costs. Vehicle types that are now used for specific freight commodities will no longer be optimal, and especially high capacity vehicles, will not be able to reach even close to maximum payload. The road transport costs will be highly affected by such a change. Total road transport costs for traffic in the vicinity of branch lines is expected to increase by R1 billion from R10.3 billion to R11.3 billion if this change is implemented (Figure 3). If the switch to rail transport presented in the previous section manifests, total transport costs (assuming that commodities can be transported at current rail tariffs), will however be lower. Current branch line related transport costs are R18.8 billion, whilst with the proposed scenarios 1 and 2, it would be R17.6 billion and R18.5 billion respectively (Figure 4).

Figure 3: Road transport cost increases per flow type if axle limit change is implemented


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Figure 4: Comparative total transport costs: current vs. scenarios

This means that although road transport costs will increase (a fact that is causing obvious concern for freight owners) improvements in rail service that will make the swi switch tch palatable will decrease the total transport bill of the nation. As discussed in the next section, uunderstanding nderstanding externalities and costing for these could provide further inducements for a modal shift. Cost impact of externalities The branch line related externality costs of R R3.8 3.8 billion are almost entirely a result of road use (rail’s externality externality costs amount to a mere R38.6 million or 1% of the total) total).. The current externality costs will be reduced by 35% in Scenario 1 (to R2.5 R2.5 billion) billion) and 8% in Scenario 2 (or R3.5 billion) as illustrated in Figure 5.

Figure 5: Comparative externality cost components: current vs. switching scenarios

Total transport costs for branch line traffic (with externalities included) will therefore reduce from R22.6 billion to R20.2 billion in Scenario 1 (an 11% reduction) and R22.0 billion in Scenario 2 (a 3% reduction), reduction), as depicted in Figure 6.


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Figure 6: Comparative cost components: current vs. switching scenarios

This means that with an improved service offering, regulation (which is required to protect the pavement surface) and externality accounting, a branch line modal shift will decrease the nation’s freight bill substantially. A view of the future Future demand (between 5 and 30 years) can be calculated using the model and cost savings determined for the high switch scenario and calculated in today’s real monetary value – i.e. the effect of inflation is not considered for both costs and income. The total branch line related tons transported will be 139.9 tons (compared to the current 66.4) and 56.1tonkilometes generated (compared to the current 26.5). The application of the two previously developed scenarios to the higher future volumes point to considerable densification potential for rail, which in turn enables exploitation of rail’s significant economies of density (rail’s cost savings are exponential with increases in density) (Harris, 1977 and Mercer, 2002). These cost savings are 15% in Scenario 1 and 5% in Scenario 22,, as illustrated in Figure 7.


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Figure 7: Future comparative cost components: current vs. switching scenarios

These scenarios scenarios illustrate the significant cost savings potential if a future view is taken. These savings will only be possible possible if the branch lines remain in operation because of the prohibitive cost of reviving these lines in future. 4. CONCLUSION The research illustrated that there are significant volumes available for branch line transport. A switching of these volumes to rail will reduce both transport costs and externality charges, not only rendering this transport transport more competitive but also more environmentally sustainable due to reduced externalities. externalities. The savings (with a shift to rail) become even more considerable if road axle limits are reduced. It is true that given the current circumstances, i.e. reduced rail capacity due to historic underinvestment, low current rail volumes and the fact that road externality costs are not charged; most branch lines might not be seen as viable. However, supported by government investment and limited subsidies through a concessioning vehicle these lines could, in all probability, become sustainable transport solutions for the future. Short term subsidies to keep branch lines operational might be more cost effective than the investment that would be required for complete rehabilitation in the future. The research also points to the integrated and “single network” characteristic of South Africa’s railway railway system. Very few branch lines operate in “separate” economic pockets or development areas. Concessioning Concessioning the lines to different operators is therefore questioned. Finally, a future view of demand and the correct accounting for externalities of road transport illustrate the future viability of branch lines.


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5. REFERENCES Ash, P. 2010. Transnet bid to stay on track. Times Live. 20 June 2010. Available from: http://www.timeslive.co.za/business/article510181.ece/Transnet-bid-to-stay-on-track [Accessed 30 September 2010] Australian Government. 2009. New South Wales Grain Freight Review. Available from: http://www.nationbuildingprogram.gov.au/funding/projects/NSW_grain_freight_review.aspx [Accessed 1 October 2010] Ballou, R.H. 2004. Business logistics/supply chain management: Planning, organizing and controlling the supply chain (5th edition). Upper Saddle River: Prentice Hall. Bechtel SAIC Company LLC. 2006. Mina Rail Route Feasibility Study. Friends of the Earth: Northern Ireland. 2000. Out of the shadows: The future of Northern Ireland’s railways, Belfast. Connecticut Department of Transport. 2010. Waterbury and New Canaan Branch Lines Spring 2010. Available from: http://waterburyNeeds and Feasibility Study. newcanaanrail.org/documents/newsletters/spring-2010.pdf [Accessed1 October 2010]. Devon County Council. 2002. Newton Abbot Area: Delivering the goods. Available from: http://www.devon.gov.uk/newtonabbot_fqp_delivering.pdf [Accessed 1 October 2010]. Fleetwatch [Online]. 2009. DoT proposal sparks outrage. October 2009. Available from: http://www.fleetwatch.co.za/magazines/Oct2009/18DoT%20proposal%20sparks%20outrage.htm [Accessed on 6 July 2010]. Harris, R.G. 1977. Economics of Traffic Densities in the rail freight industry. Bell Journal of Economics, 8(2): 556-564. Havenga, J.H. 2007. The development and application of a freight flow model for South Africa. Dissertation presented for the degree Doctor of Philosophy (Logistics Management), University of Stellenbosch. Havenga, J.H., van Eeden, J. and Simpson, Z. 2009. The state of logistics in South Africa – Sustainable improvements or continued exposure to risk? In the 6th Annual State of Logistics Survey for South Africa. Published by the CSIR, Stellenbosch University and Imperial Logistics. Haywoood, R. 2007. Britain’s national railway network: fit for purpose in the 21st century? Journal of Transport Geography, 15:198-216. Kwan, C. & Knutsen, K. 2006. Intermodal revolution. China Business Review, 33(4): 20–25. Jorgensen, A. 2009. Transport costs and the relevance of externalities. Discussion paper, Africa Rail, 25 June 2009. McCoy, D.C. 2000. North Carolina Rail Plan 2000, Raleigh: North Carolina Department of Transportation. Mercer. 2002. Infrastructure Separation and Open Access: Lessons from Experience. Unpublished confidential report. Merseyside Transport Partnership. 2009. Rail Project Update – Summer 09. Available from: http://www.letstravelwise.org/files/1782137114_Rail_Update_Summer_09.pdf [Accessed 1 October 2010]

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Wisconsin & Southern Railroad Co. 2004. Wisconsin’s rail transit commissions Informational packet. Available from: http://www.wsorrailroad.com/resources/rail_transit1.pdf [Accessed 1 October 2010]

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Howell, Dr Robert CEO, Council for Socially Responsible Investment. 25 Kowhai Street, Kingsland, Auckland 1024, New Zealand. Tel: 64 9 6236253 EM: [email protected] Transitions to Sustainable Investment Abstract During the last few years the international financial system has demonstrated its inability to carry out one of its basic functions, namely, to receive deposits from investors and channel those safely and efficiently to organisations that provide goods and services for the benefit of society. This is because for the last three to four decades the model used was the theory of the free market. This failure has been at a conceptual and practical level. While regulations and controls need to be established, these are not sufficient for sustainable investment because the economic and financial systems are still not based on the need for humans to live within the capacity of Earth to support human life. This failure is of strategic significance because the financial sector plays a key role in any transition to a sustainable world. It is estimated that less than 1% of investment under professional management is sustainable. The proportion of Sovereign Wealth Funds that are sustainable is likely to be less than 5% and closer to less that 1%. There are major problems with international financial standards, such as the UN PRI and the Equator Principles. Reference is made to a fund, Portfolio21, that attempts to invest sustainably, and to a bank, HSBC Holdings, that is leading in sustainable commitment. Both demonstrate how far we have to go. A transition to where investments are sustainable will require substantial reform of the international financial institutions and standards, and this change is unlikely to occur in the immediate future. Investment strategies need to take into account the turbulence that will result from a deteriorating ecology that will be unable to support human life on Earth as we know it. Key Words ethical investment, financial sustainability, sustainable banking Introduction During the last few years the international financial system has demonstrated its inability to carry out one of its basic functions, namely, to receive deposits from investors and channel those safely and efficiently to organisations that provide goods and services for the benefit of society at large. This failure is due to the support by significant sectors of the economic academic community, the managers of the financial sector, and the international business and political community, of a model (the general equilibrium theory, the formal theory of the free market) that was shown in the 1950‟s to be conceptually inadequate. There has been considerable literature about this weakness (examples: Cassidy, 2009; Stiglitz, 2010). In supporting a failed economic model humanity has lost 30-40 years in planning and executing a transition to a sustainable Earth that will support human life on it as we know it. However, regulation proposed by many reformers is not sufficient for an adequate



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transition to sustainable world or sustainable investment. Regulation which is aimed at only correcting market weaknesses within the existing Business As Usual (BAU) model will not be effective in dealing with the ecological degradation that the Earth is undergoing. A regulated economy still rests upon certain assumptions about the availability and use of resources for human utility, and that economic model is still detrimental to the life systems upon which human life on Earth depends. What is required is the shift from an unlimited growth, to a steady state economy. With this a change in ethics is needed from a utilitarian and a version of Locke‟s philosophy (with property rights to ownership of resources and exploitation for human utility), to where human-human and human-Earth relationships are based on notions such as respect, integrity, or intrinsic value, and equity (Howell, 2009 a; 2010). Because these reforms have not occurred, the Earth‟s ability to support human life is diminishing. There is considerable scientific evidence of ecological degradation (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005; Rockström et al, 2009) and the consequences for a 3-4oC and more warming of the Earth as described by Lynas (Lynas, 2007; 2009) and Hamilton (Hamilton, 2010). The major global change drivers to 2030 and beyond will include critical issues around population; climate change; price increases for hydrocarbons; water; food; toxins; geopolitical shifts; wide swings in economic activity; technological advances (Sustainable Aotearoa New Zealand, 2009). „There will be complex interactions between all of these change drivers. All are subject to uncertainty about timing and magnitude. The changes will be outside the range of prior human experience in terms of magnitude, speed of arrival, and simultaneity (several change drivers occurring together so that their impacts reinforce each other). The changes will cause abrupt and radical shifts in human living and work, creating risks and opportunities” (Sustainable Aotearoa New Zealand, 2009). It is against this turbulent future that the thinking of transitions to a sustainable world and sustainable investment needs to occur. Limitations of SRI Model and Investment The traditional Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) model has limitations. The SRI model permits investment that does not deal with the challenge to the environment described above. EuroSIF (EuroSIF, 2009) estimates that 17.6% (€2.665 trillion) of the European asset management industry can be classified as SRI. However, 14.2% or €2.154 trillion is where there is a single screen such as weapons (€656), norms-based (€402) or tobacco (€17.5). The Social Investment Forum USA estimates that 11% of $US27.1 trillion under professional management is SRI (Social Investment Forum, 2007), but the bulk of this (77% or $US2.098 trillion) is simple screening, mainly tobacco, followed by alcohol and gambling (Social Investment Forum, 2005). Probably less than 5% is ethical and most probably less than 1-2% is strongly sustainable. Moreover, the SRI model does not include the major financial reforms needed (Howell, 2008; Howell 2009b). Sovereign Wealth Funds The largest 50 sovereign wealth funds (SWF) have $3891 billion under investment (SWF Institute, 2010). Just under 60% is oil and gas related. The largest fund is Abu



3

Dhabi investment Authority with $627 billion. Norway is currently the second largest with $443 billion or 11% and is the leader in setting ethical requirements for SWF. One of the ethical standards it is required to meet is to avoid investment in companies that cause severe environmental damage (Council on Ethics, 2010). On this criteria it excluded Rio Tinto because of its investment in Freeport‟s mine in West Papua. SAFE Investment Company is the largest Chinese SWF with $347.1 billion. It does invest in Rio Tinto. China is investing in renewable energies, but there are no published ethical standards for its four SWFs whose investments total $1010 billion. In terms of disclosure on performance, investment strategy or even basic philosophy, many SWF rank below the most secretive hedge fund (Robinson, 2007). What environmental standards that are set would be using a weak definition of sustainability. The Norwegian Fund has invested in Shell, which is involved in Canadian tar sands extraction (Koerner, B, July 2010; Norges Bank Investment Management, 2010). No companies have been excluded by the Council of Ethics on the basis of extraction of tar sands (A. Karlson, personal communication 2010). Tar sands extraction is a major contribution to Canadian greenhouse gas emissions (Greenpeace, 2010; McRobie, H. 11 May 2010). Because the Norwegian Fund only excludes companies causing severe environmental damage, rather than companies that have a high carbon impact and are ecologically unsustainable, investment of SWFs that are strongly sustainable is likely to be less than 5% and closer to less that 1%. The Needed Changes Necessary changes to the financial sector will include a shift away from “the AngloSaxon model of growth based on financial wizardry and property bubbles” (Unger, B. 2010) towards the German or Japanese model that values long term investment and a stakeholder rather than a shareholder concept of the firm. Under this approach, asset stripping would not occur. Methods of remuneration of bankers and financial advisors needs to change (Gerard, 2009). The workforce in the sector will need to drastically downsize (Economist 2008). Financial institutions will lose their ability to create money (Howell and Cartwright, 2009; Von Uexküll in Girardet and Mendonca, 2009). Reserve requirements should be by 100%, instead of fractional reserve banking, as the latter commits to a growth economy (Daly, 2007). These changes are substantial and are unlikely to occur in time to have the necessary shift to the infrastructural changes needed to avoid major ecological and social deterioration. International Principles and Standards Many of the principles and standards established for proper practice, need changing. Many have no adequate content and construct validation processes to show that the standards measure all and only those essential components of what they claim to measure. Many have ranking and scaling processes giving weights or values that are methodologically unjustified (Howell, 2001). The initiatives taken by the UNEP Finance Initiative (UNEP FI), and the Equator Principles (Equator Principles 2010), do not make distinctions between weak and strong sustainability. Weak sustainability, that includes the triple bottom line (TBL) model, allows economic matters to dominate the social and environmental matters (Sustainable Aotearoa New Zealand, 2009). The need for economic activities to be based within the limits of the Earth‟s systems and ability to nourish life is not a necessary condition of weak



4

sustainability and TBL. While sustainable companies need to make profits, the TBL model permits companies to avoid the difficult transitions to sustainability that substantially deals with the ecological degradation threats. While they encourage financial institutions to adopt policies that are a move in the right direction, they are based on a modified BAU economics model, rather than an ecological economic model. The Equator Principles, founded on a distinction between Categories A, B and C, are not well defined. Case Study: Description of Portfolio21 Portfolio21 is based in Oregon, USA. They have $322 million in assets in 105 companies. Their investment philosophy is that the greatest risks are the ecological challenges caused by humans consuming beyond the limits of what our natural systems can support. They state the best long-term investment opportunities are found in companies using environmental frameworks to make business decisions. These companies understand that the Earth's ability to provide natural resources, such as oil, or clean air and water is finite and that BAU is an inadequate response to a likely ecological crisis. The understanding of sustainability principles demonstrates the qualities of innovation and leadership that create a distinct competitive advantage and builds long-term value. Portfolio 21 invests only in companies that are integrating environmental strategies into their overall business planning. They state that they are informed by the Natural Step framework (Portfolio21, 2010). Portfolio21 chooses companies that meet their environmental selection criteria with respect to eight factors. First, does the company's business model plan to gain competitive advantages within ecological constraints? Second, does the company understand the ecological impact of its products and/or services and has taken significant steps to reduce those impacts? Third, has the company demonstrated an environmental commitment through its investments, such as significant investments in the research and development of ecologically superior products or technologies, or in new plants or equipment with advanced environmental performance? Fourth, does the company's management understand the magnitude of the ecological crisis and do they view environmental sustainability as a major business opportunity? Fifth, does the company's environmental management system identify and address environmental impacts and liabilities, develop action plans and procedures, and establish environmental accounting practices that are publicly reported and certified? Sixth, is the company concerned about resource efficiency? Seventh, does the company‟s strategic plan include reducing direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions, and decreasing exposure to other environmental liabilities? Eighth, does the company meet good standards in the areas of employee relations, human rights, community involvement, or product safety? Excluded on this latter criterion are nuclear energy, tobacco, gambling, or weapons companies (Portfolio21, 2010). They state that there are no truly sustainable companies: therefore no companies excel in all of the areas listed below. They select companies with strengths in multiple areas that are well positioned to make further advancements in addressing sustainability challenges. They place the most emphasis on a company‟s biggest impacts. The representative for Portfolio21 said “So, for example, to the extent that a manufacturing firm is using recycled paper in its offices while ignoring the resource efficiency opportunities in its



5

supply chain and plants, yes, we place less emphasis on the office level improvements. For most banks, the biggest environmental impact is the projects they finance, so we place more emphasis on this than on office practices. We don‟t ignore these other areas, but they are weighted less heavily. …The challenge is to balance the near term (3 to 5 years for us) with the inevitable consequences of ecological limits as they unfold over the next century (L. Christian, personal communication, 2010). It was stated that the global drivers described in the Sustainable Aotearoa New Zealand publication (Sustainable Aotearoa New Zealand, 2009), are taken into account through their selection criteria. In response to a question about the choice of banks by Portfolio21, it was stated said that the biggest direct ESG risk confronting a global bank is that its clients' credit quality and/or asset value deteriorates because of the failure to address environmental and/or social issues. This means that financial institutions need to become experts in evaluating the full breadth of Environmental Social and Governance risks in their existing and future portfolios. Portfolio 21 avoids banks with excessive leveraging. They feel this leveraging is predominantly utilised for activities based on speculation, rather than the provision of tangible products or productive services, and thus represents a significant risk for investors (L. Christian, personal communication, 2010). Portfolio21 is underweighted in financials for several reasons. First, most banks and other financial institutions concentrate on office-level environmental improvements and do not integrate environmental sustainability into their core lending/financing activities to a meaningful extent (Bank of America, for example). Second, the combination of highly leveraged assets and lack of transparency is very risky. Third, they expect that financial regulation will eventually curtail many of the most profitable (and egregious) activities (L. Christian, personal communication, 2010). Portfoli21 engages with nearly every company in the portfolio via email and telephone. Site visits tend to be region/country focused. For example, one of their portfolio managers and one of their research analysts during a trip to South Africa to attend a conference, will meet with academicians and practitioners in the area of environmental sustainability, and then meet with five to ten individual companies. The decision by Intel to amend its corporate charter to include mandatory reporting on corporate responsibility and sustainability performance came about through Harrington Investments sponsoring the shareholder resolution and dialogue. But the company and its legal counsel were influenced by the whole mosaic of individuals and organisations, including Portfolio 21, who are working to increase corporate responsibility (L. Christian, personal communication, 2010). Portfolio21‟s non-public guidelines state “ The Principles of Responsible Investing (PRI) is an investor initiative in partnership with UNEP Finance Initiative and the UN Global Compact. Unfortunately, in the case of both of these initiatives, actual results (and successful strategies for minimizing ESG risks) are difficult to measure due to client confidentiality issues that limit transparency and reporting. Also, the qualitative nature of the guidelines and the varied interpretations and implementation by different financial institutions make performance challenging to evaluate.” (L. Christian, personal communication, 2010).



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Evaluation Of Portfolio21 Their philosophy is based on ecological economic principles, and their risk analysis takes into account the global drivers described by Sustainable Aotearoa New Zealand above. They recognise that there are no truly sustainable companies. It is hard to assess the impact of their engagement practice: comments by Christian about the change by Intel seemed realistic. Comments about the reasons why Portfolio21 is underweighted in financials illustrate a healthy appreciation about the risk of banks. However, in regard to the choice of banks, Portfolio21‟s use of the Equator Principles and the Principles of Responsible Investing, are publicly accepted without criticism. But organisations can sign up to such Principles and use a very weak definition of sustainability. This is in conflict with Portfolio21‟s support of the Natural Step framework. But generally their transparency is very good, with reasons for inclusion and exclusion of companies made public. Case Study: Description of HSBC Holdings HSBC is one of the largest banking and financial services organisations in the world. They have assets of US$114 billion and assets of US$2,527b as at 31 December 2008. HSBC has around 9,500 offices and 325,000 employees in 86 countries and territories in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, the Americas, the Middle East and Africa. HSBC offers a range of financial services to over 100 million personal, commercial, corporate, institutional, investment and private banking clients. Shares in HSBC Holdings plc are held by over 210,000 shareholders in 120 countries and territories (HSBC, 2010). In 2005, HSBC became the first bank and FTSE100 company to become carbon neutral. They have four-year targets for energy use, water use, waste and carbon dioxide. They have programmes in place to reduce the direct environmental impact. This includes the energy, water, waste and carbon emissions from their 10,000 buildings, IT infrastructure and business travel (HSBC, 2010). HSBC says tackling climate change will require a concerted effort between government, business and individuals. Innovation in renewable energy and clean technology is required to help reduce the world's dependence on carbon intensive fuels. Through lending, investment and insurance products and services, HSBC anticipates playing a leading role in the transition to a lower carbon economy over the long term. The impacts of climate change can already be seen and there will be a need to invest in adaptation, particularly in the developing world (HSBC, 2010). Key actions that HSBC has undertaken to prepare the business and our customers for the impacts of climate change include the HSBC Climate Change Centre of Excellence; adoption of the Climate Principles; five-year partnerships costing US$100 million with four leading climate NGOs; and the establishment of the HSBC Global Climate Change Benchmark Index (HSBC, 2010). In 2003, HSBC adopted the Equator Principles for large projects. HSBC voluntarily



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extended the Principles to export finance loans and other facilities where the use of proceeds is known to be directly related to a project. In addition, HSBC has developed a series of risk policies for sensitive sectors, including Chemicals, Defence, Energy, Forest Land and Forest Products, Freshwater Infrastructure and Mining and Metals. These policies cover a wider range of financial services than lending and are applied regardless of the value of the transaction or size of the business (HSBC, 2010). Evaluation of HSBC HSBC score highest (92 points) for Financials on the Carbon Disclosure Project (Carbon Disclosure Project 2010). HSBC received the highest score for banks in a Ceres Report (Cogan, 2008) on how the banking sector was responding to the threat of climate change. The survey was of 16 US and 24 non-US banks representing more than 60 percent of the total market capitalisation of the global publicly traded banking sector. However, to quote Cogan, “this rank is somewhat of a hollow victory. According to the survey, many of the 40 banks have done little or nothing to elevate climate change as a governance priority. Only 14 banks have adopted risk management policies or lending procedures that address climate change in a systematic way. Only a half-dozen banks say they are formally calculating carbon risk in their loan portfolios, and only one of the 40 banks—Bank of America—has announced a specific target to reduce the rate of greenhouse gas emissions associated with the utility portion of its lending portfolio. And no bank has set a policy to avoid investments in carbon-intensive projects such as coal-fired power plants. While many banks have made improvements, the actions to date are the tip of the iceberg of what is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions consistent with targets scientists say are needed to avoid the dangerous impacts of climate change” (Cogan, 2008).) In the Banktrack report on meeting socially and environmentally sustainable standards (Banktrack, 2010), HSBC is the only bank of 49 in the survey to receive a score of 4 (for its forestry policy). It scored 1s for its biodiversity and climate change policies. Overall it scored two 0s, thirteen 1s, one 2, one 3 and one 4. (A score of 0 is where there is no policy and a 4 is where essential elements are included in policy.) HSBC has taken a number of initiatives that deserve support: setting up research teams; partnering with NGOs; committing to climate change principles based on a low carbon economy; and establishing a Climate Change Benchmark Index. These actions indicate that HSBC understands the real threat of ecological degradation, and is prepared to give major commitment to this concern, although I do not know where it stands on the weak/strong sustainability question. It is significant that HSBC felt it needed to adopt climate change principles based on a low carbon economy: the UN Principles were obviously not sufficient. It is also significant that it recognised that mitigation now is not sufficient, and that adaptation is also required, particularly for developing countries. Its development of policy for Chemicals, Defence, Energy, Forest Land and Forest Products, Freshwater Infrastructure, and Mining and Metals, is to be encouraged. Some of these are very good: the Defence, and Forest Land and Forest Products, are examples. Others can be best described as a start.



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The Energy, and Mining and Metals policies are timid. At a global level, energy supply (25.9%), transport (13.1%), residential and commercial buildings (7.9%) and industry (19.4%) contributes around two thirds of global warming (IPCC, 2007). According to James Hanson, coal contributes the largest percentage of anthropogenic carbon dioxide into the atmosphere (Hanson, 2007). Until this matter is addressed in a significant way in bank policy, then much of the other initiatives are interesting but less significant. Implications for Transition to Sustainable Investment Portfolio21 is an example of a fund committed to strong sustainability, but its selection and discussion of where to invest indicates how far is the transition to a sustainable economy. HSBC is one of the best, if not the best publicly owned bank from its commitment to sustainability, but it still has a substantial way to go. (Government owned banks, such as KfW Bankengruppe, and cooperatives, such as the UK‟s Cooperative bank as not included in this evaluation.) Internationally a transition to a sustainable world can only occur with investment based on international financial institutions that adopt policies that acknowledge ecological boundaries. If the wrong standards and principles are set, then operational performance cannot achieve the desired goals. Many standards in the sector are set without validated processes and justifiable scaling and ranking methodologies. The UN measures (Howell, 2009a) and Equator Principles suffer from a model of weak sustainability. This leads to compromises penalising the environment in favour of economic outcomes. There is an urgent need for principles based on strong sustainability. It is important to note that HSBC needed a set of principles (the Climate Principles) other than UNPRI and the Equator Principles in developing policies dealing with the threat of climate change, and that Portfolio21 had difficulties in using UNPRI because their qualitative nature led to various interpretations and different methods of implementation. Many banks in the Banktrack report had signed up to UNPRI, UN Global Compact, and the Equator Principles, but received low scores on their policies. Investment needs to be directed towards a low carbon economy, or an economy based on ecological principles for living within the capacity of the Earth to support life. This is a steady state economy and that is inconsistent with the current system where virtually all money is created through the issuing of credit by banks. Repayment of debt with interest relies on the expansion of the supply of money and this commits to a growth economy. Von Uexküll asks “Does it really make sense that our sovereign governments should have to borrow the funds needed to protect our common future from private moneylenders, who create this money themselves from fractional reserve banking, and whom we as citizens and taxpayers have just rescued from bankruptcy?” (Girardet and Mendonca, 2009). This issue is not on the agenda of financial institutions concerned about sustainability. Any firm, to be sustainable, needs to be profitable, and this is true for financial organisations. Unfortunately the time for a leisurely planned transition has gone and humankind is facing major disruption of a kind that is not easily imagined. The indications are that climate change and the trends in ecological degradation will have



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greater impact than the introduction of electricity, the manufacture of metal and steel at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, as disruptive as the enclosures of the commons in Britain, and perhaps as significant as the end of the most recent Ice Age. Copenhagen has shown that political agreement is hard to achieve. Major disruptions of this kind usually happen at times of major disruption, such as towards the ends of world wars (Brown, Carver et al, 2009). Future turbulence is going to become much more agitated and a significant threat to financial institutions that have relied on traditional models of more benign times. The inventors of electricity and the technologies of the industrial revolution were not able to foresee the social and economic impacts, let alone define strategies for coping with them. It is therefore difficult to describe definite pathways forward, but some steps can be prepared, and financial organisations have an important contribution in helping prepare clients and the public to shift to strongly sustainable models of economic behaviour and adaptation to a turbulent future. A strategy for prudent investors to cope with this turbulence will include investing in a smaller number of companies, taking a larger stake, and indicating to company management that a longer-term perspective will be taken (hence avoiding a short term requirement of regular high dividends). The choice of company will include how aware management is of the major global drivers and how they are incorporating these into their strategic plans. Ideally companies have calculated what their ecological impact is and are living within it, or according to the Daly formulae or Natural Step calculations (Daly 1996; Daly 2007; The Natural Step, 2010). Under the Lynas scenario of 3+ o C (Lynas 2007, 2009), there will be a significant reduction in population, considerable movement in population, disruption and reduction in international trade, and an increase in conflict. Many of the goods that currently make up international trade patterns will disappear, as factories or production sites will have been destroyed by floods and storms, rising seawater, lack of water, and pollution. Prudent investment will be in goods and services essential for simple and sustainable living, with a focus on local resources and production in regard to such factors as food, housing, water and energy systems, and clothing. Production and distribution systems will need to be resilient, and able to cope with relatively rapid changes in temperature and weather. Transport and communication systems that are currently dependent on unsustainable energy and resource use will disappear. A major turning point to the end of apartheid was the action of US investors in denying funds to South Africa (Sparkes, 2002). The availability and conditionality of finance can have a profound and immediate effect. Finance is a core component of economy activity: it has the ability to contribute to ecological decay or otherwise. Strategically it has a crucial role to play. If international finance adopted principles, policies and practices based on a strong sustainability philosophy, then the predicted catastrophes could be minimalised. Various groups and organisations (religious, environmental, and commercial) that are actively committed to a better outlook for the Earth could support archetype principles and policies that could be available for adoption (with regional adaptations where necessary) by financial organisations as a way of promoting public debate and encouraging change. Conclusion



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Investors seek a financial system that adequately identifies risk and gives fair protection and return. The current international system does not do this. In addition to the need for proper regulations, the financial sector needs to take into account the threat to human life on Earth posed by serious and substantial ecological and social deterioration. The current system does not do this either. Unless there is a rapid switch of investment away from activities that cause and contribute to ecological degradation, towards investment that provides solutions, then the future for humans is bleak. Investment in such a turbulent future will be difficult. The case studies that describe a fund and bank that have espoused sustainability principles have shown the gap between what is desired and where we are. Unfortunately the Ceres and Banktrack studies and the analysis above show that the two case studies chosen are not representative of the financial sector generally. The sector is doing too little and the time for mitigation alone has passed. Nevertheless, the financial sector is an important focus for change, and concerted engagement and advocacy is required. References Banktrack. (2010). Close the Gap. Retrieved May 30 2010 from www.banktrack.org/show/pages/publications. Brown, P.G., Garver, G. et al (2009). Right Relationship Building a Whole Earth Economy. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler. Carbon Disclosure Project. (2010). Retrieved April 20 from www.cdproject.net/enUS/Results/Pages/leadership-index.aspx. Cogan, D. (2008). Corporate Governance and Climate change: the Banking Sector. A Ceres Report. Retrieved 21 March 2010, from www.ceres.org//Document.Doc?id=269. Council on Ethics, (2010). Retrieved 31 September www.regjeringen.no/en/sub/styrer-rad-utvalg/ethics_council/ethicalguidelines.html?id=425277.

2010

from

Daly, H. (1996). Beyond Growth. Boston MA: Beacon Press. Daly, H. (2007), Ecological Economics and Sustainable Development. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. Economist. (March 19 2008) The Financial System What Went wrong? Equator Principles (2010). Retrieved 21 March 2010 from www.equator-principles.com/documents/Equator_Principles.pdf. EuroSIF. (2009) European SRI Study 2008. Retrieved 21 March 2010, from www.eurosif.org/publications/sri_studies. Gerard, P. Banker‟s Pay and the Financial Crisis, Ecumenical Council for Corporate Responsibility Dec 2009. Retrieved 21 March 2010, from www.eccr.org.uk/News-



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article-sid-167.html. Girardet, H and Mendonca, M, (2009). Equality. Devon: Green Books.

A Renewable World. Energy, Ecology,

Greenpeace (2010) Stop the tar sands to curb Canada‟s growing greenhouse gas emissions. Retrieved 9 September 2010 from http://www.greenpeace.org/canada/en/campaigns/tarsands/. Hamilton, C. (2010). Requiem for a Species. Australia: Allen & Unwin. Hanson, J. (2007). Direct Testimony of James E Hanson. The State of Iowa Before the Utilities Board. Retrieved 19 April 2010, from www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2007/IowaCoal_20071105.pdf. Howell, R. (2001). The Need for Validation of Socially Responsible Measures. Retrieved 9 September 2010 from http://www.csri.org.nz/reports-articles.htm Howell, R (2008). Globalization and the Good Corporation: Whither Socially Responsible Investment? Human Systems Management, 27, 3, 243-254. Howell, R. (2009a). Talking Past Each Other: Economics, Ethics, The IPCC and the UNFCCC. International Journal of Transdisciplinary Research. 4, 1, 1-15. Howell, R. (October, 2009b). Ecological Ethics for a Sustainable World, and Some Implications for Investment. Presentation to ANZSEE Conference, Darwin, Australia. Retrieved 21 March 2010, from www.csri.org.nz. Howell, R. (2010). Choosing ethical theories and principles and applying them to the question: „Should the seas be owned?‟ International Journal of Transdisciplinary Research v5 no 1 1-28. Howell, R and Cartwright, W. (2009). The Ethics of a Sustainable Economy: Implications for Public Policy. Retrieved 21 March 2010, from www.csri.org.nz. HSBC. (2010). Retrieved 21 March 2010 from www.hsbc.com. IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report. Retrieved 19 April 2010 from www.ipcc.ch/graphics/syr/fig2-1.jpg. Koerner, B. (July, 2010). The Trillion-Barrel Tar Pit. Wired. Retrieved 9 September 2010 from http://webmonkey.wired.com/wired/archive/12.07/oil.html. Lynas, M. (2007). Six Degrees. Our Future for a Hotter Planet. UK: Fourth Estate. Lynas, M (2009). Retrieved 21 March 2010 from http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/14/climate-change-environmenttemperature.



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McRobie, H. (11 May 2010) Canadian‟s tar sands: a dangerous solution to offshore oil. Retrieved 9 September 2010 from www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/11/alberta-california-tar-sands-oil. Norges Bank Investment Management. (2010). Retrieved 9 September 2010 from http://www.nbim.no/en/Investments/holdings-/. Portfolio21. (2010). Retrieved 21 March 2010 from www.portfolio21.com. Robinson, G. (May 25, 2007). Sovereign Wealth Funds and the $2500bn Question. Financial Times. Social Investment Forum. (2007) 2007 Trends Report Executive Summary: Reporting on Responsible Investing Trends in the U.S. Retrieved 21 March 2010 from www.socialinvest.org/resources/research/. Social Investment Forum. (2005). 2005 Report on Socially Responsible Investing Trends in the U.S. Retrieved 21 March 2010, from www.socialinvest.org/resources/research/. SWF Institute (2010). Retrieved 1 July 2010 from www.swfinstitute.org. Sparkes, R. (2002). Socially Responsible Investment A Global Revolution. Chicester, England: John Wiley and Sons. Stiglitz, J. (2010) Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy. NY: W. W. Norton. Sustainable Aotearoa New Zealand. (2009). Strong Sustainability Principles and Scenarios. New Zealand: Nakedize Ltd Publications, or www.phase2.org. The Natural Step ™. Retrieved 28 April 2010 from www.naturalstep.org. Unger, B. (2010). Older and Wiser. A Special Report on Germany. March 13.

Economist.



Auckland governance reforms: political legitimacy, democratic accountability and sustainable development. Dr Bruce Hucker, senior lecturer, School of Architecture and Planning, University of Auckland. Abstract Themes of the Auckland governance reforms are set out: radical change, historical discontinuity and the centralisation of power. These have influenced the design of the new Auckland Council and its associated institutions, and the sustainability provisions embedded in legislation. These are not likely to change soon, and constitute a given. The question is how successful they will be in practice and what further needs to be done if the hope placed in them is to be fulfilled over time. This will depend in large part on the linked achievement of political legitimacy, democratic accountability, and sustainable development. These will not occur naturally and will require considerable effort and the implementation of a series of actions that reflect cross disciplinary insights, theoretically- based understanding, and the exercise of practical and political wisdom (Aristotle’s phronesis and politike).They include the adoption of an inclusive common good approach to the region and its parts, improving three particular relationships, and the detailed understanding of the context, shaped by the past, in which the new political network will operate. It will require a practical focus on how to grow the legitimacy of the new institutions, on aligning the network towards democratic accountability and sustainable development through its transitional and other stages, and making the structures and processes congruent with and responsive to the browning of Auckland. Nimble, responsive and rapid approaches are needed rather than the current plethora of plans with their emphasis on coordination rather than implementation. The Council Controlled Organisations need to serve the Auckland Council and the region’s communities rather than vice-versa. A robust community development approach is required for strategic issues that require a people-centred approach, rather than engineering and technical solutions alone. Together these suggestions are a recipe for achieving earlier greater political legitimacy, democratic accountability and sustainable development. Introduction On November 1, 2010 a new set of political institutions will come into existence in Auckland. This is a result of the work of three bodies: the Royal Commission on Auckland Governance, the New Zealand Government and the Auckland Transition Agency. The themes of the Royal Commission’s recommendations emphasised radical change rather than evolutionary reform, historical discontinuity more than continuity with the past, and the centralisation of power rather than its devolution. Decisions by the National Government, have given, if anything, even greater play to the first of each of these polarities. The Auckland Transition Agency has worked within the parameters established by the government to produce workable designs for the new institutions, their relationships, policy and planning instruments, and transitional arrangements. Institutional Design While there is no reliable road map for the new super city there are initial descriptions backed by legislation of the formal structures, relationships and processes to be implemented. The key institution is the governing body, the Auckland Council, a unitary authority with a mayor elected at large, and twenty councillors elected from thirteen one or two member wards. The mayor and the mayoral office have significant powers. The mayor is the head of the governing body and will  promote a vision for Auckland and provide leadership to achieve that vision



   

lead the development of council plans, policies and budgets for consideration by the council ensure effective communication between council and Aucklanders appoint the deputy mayor establish the committees of the council and appoint the chairperson of each committee (Local Government (Auckland Council) Act 2009, Part 2, Section 9, Subsections 1-7)

The Auckland Transition Agency has spelled out the relationships between the Auckland Council and its local boards and the need for links between the Council Controlled Organisations and the local boards. There are comparable suggestions for relationships with Maori, Pasifika, and other ethnic communities. ATA has also offered working examples of how the new system will operate, although there is a lack of detail on how to make the relationships work effectively for mutual benefit and how to achieve just and effective governance. The twenty- one local boards will have significant decision making roles. This is based on recognition of the complementary nature of the regional and local components of issues and decision making. This leads to a complementary approach to the relationship between the governing body and the local boards. The Auckland Council will focus on Auckland wide strategic decisions, providing one voice for Auckland nationally and internationally, and the local boards will focus on decisions around a wide range of services and will represent the diverse communities across Auckland. The ATA, as well as focusing on a principle of complementarity, also suggests that the two complementary decision-making parts of the Auckland Council are non-hierarchical. While this may be in keeping with its design intentions, its accuracy is questionable (ATA, 2010, 2). Another key institution in the network is the Council Controlled Organisations. Seven have been approved, with oversight provided by a committee of the Auckland Council. The largest, a statutory entity, is Auckland Transport, with extensive responsibilities which will consume a significant proportion of regional funds. Watercare, the provider of the region’s water and wastewater services, will become a full CCO in 2015. The other five substantive CCO’s are Auckland Council Investments Ltd (ACIL), Auckland Tourism, Events and Economic Development Ltd (TEED), Regional Facilities Auckland (RFA), Auckland Council Property Ltd (ACPL), and the Auckland Waterfront Development Agency (AWDA). More than 75% of regional expenditure will occur through the CCO’s, mostly through Auckland Transport. Maori and Pasifika and other ethnic peoples are also included in the institutional design. Maori will not have three seats around the Auckland Council decision-making table, as envisaged by the Royal Commission. Instead there will be a statutory Maori board to promote issues of significance for mana whenua groups and mataawaka of Tamaki Makaurau. The board must appoint a maximum of two persons to sit on each of the Auckland Council’s committees that deal with the management and stewardship of natural and physical resources. The Auckland Council will also be advised by Pacific Peoples and Ethnic Peoples advisory panels. These, however, are subject to a two year sunset clause, and their continuance depends on mayoral discretion.

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The dominant policy and planning institution and instrument is the Auckland spatial plan. The purpose of the spatial plan is to contribute to Auckland’s social, economic, environmental, and cultural well-being through a comprehensive and effective long-term (2030 – year) strategy for Auckland’s growth and development. It will provide a basis for aligning the implementation plans, regulatory plans, and funding programmes of the Auckland Council. The Auckland Council must also endeavour to secure and maintain the support and co-operation of central government, infrastructure providers, the communities of Auckland, the private sector, the rural sector, and other parties in the implementation of the spatial plan. (Local Government (Auckland Council) Amendment Act 2010, Part 6, Sections 79-80). The relationships between the 10 year Long Term Council Community Plan (LTCCP), the district plan, and the spatial plan still require clarification and will be subject to imminent amendments of the Resource Management Act 1991. Also to be worked out in practice are the advisory forums, including the social forum. Sustainability Provisions The design of a network of institutions is one thing, the embedding of sustainability provisions another. The key legislation mandating sustainable development is the Local Government Act 2002. It is stronger than the sustainable management of resources integral to the Resource Management Act 1991. While the district and regional plans generated under the RMA 1991 provide opportunities for things to be done and constraints on what can happen, they do not make things happen. The Long Term Council Community Plan is a different animal. It is the cornerstone planning instrument for local government, with its base in the LGA 2002. The Auckland Council is subject to the provisions of this legislation. The LGA 2002 has five primary features: an obligation to provide opportunities for Maori to contribute to a council’s decision-making processes, a power of general competence, a pronounced emphasis on local democracy and public participation, a focus on sustainable development and the four community well-beings, social, economic, environmental and cultural, and finally the introduction of a ten year planning instrument, the Long Term Council Community Plan. (Hucker, 2009) The Act provides for local authorities to play a broad role in promoting the social, economic, environmental, and cultural well-being of their communities, taking a sustainable development approach (Section 3(d)). This is elucidated further by applying this quadruple bottom line to the present and future, as one of the two purposes of local government (Section 10(b)).The most comprehensive account of this feature is outlined in this way: ‘in taking a sustainable development approach, a local authority should take into account – i. the social, economic, and cultural well-being of people and communities; and ii. the need to maintain and enhance the quality of the environment; and iii. the reasonably foreseeable needs of future generations (Section 14(1)(b)). The Long Term Council Community Plan links in one planning and policy document, strategic direction and financial strategy. It costs, prioritises and funds for a ten year period policies, programmes and projects (Section 93). A major review may be undertaken every three years (Section 93 (3)). The plan may be amended at any time but subject to a number of conditions (Section 93 (4)(9)). 3



It also provides the basis for the Annual Plan and Asset Management Plans. In a real sense the Annual Plan is the unrolling, year by year of the ten year LTCCP. It also allows for the adjustment of individual policies, programmes and projects, and more importantly the funding mix related to their implementation. It is the connections between the institutional network, the integration of the five key features of the LGA 2002, and the sustainable development provisions that are critical. For they link different stages of the process of local government reform: the articulation of assumptions and values, the design of an institutional network, transitional arrangements, public participation, plan and policy development, implementation, monitoring the extent to which goals and objectives are achieved, and intended and unintended consequences. The success of the Auckland governance reforms will depend among other things on how political legitimacy, democratic accountability and sustainable development are achieved together in practice. They are autonomous in terms of their essential characteristics, but are integrally related as links in a chain. Each will be difficult to achieve without the others. This argument is similar to that set out by Nicholas Stern on climate change. He describes the science and notes the links between a series of processes generating climate change and its effects and implications for this and future generations. He then maintains: ‘The two greatest problems of our times – overcoming poverty in the developing world and combating climate change – are inextricably linked. Failure to tackle one will undermine efforts to deal with the other; ignoring climate change would result in an increasingly hostile environment for development and poverty reduction, but to try to deal with climate change by shackling growth and development would damage, probably fatally, the co-operation between developed and developing countries that is vital to success (Stern, 2009, 8).’ This provides a parallel for regarding strategy and processes as links in a chain, a challenge faced by Auckland governance reforms. This is heightened by two additional features of the legislation adopted in 2009 and 2010. One is the provision for spatial planning, the other, the establishment of the seven Council Controlled Organisations. According to the Local Government (Auckland Council) Amendment Act 2010 the purpose of Auckland Transport is to contribute to an effective and efficient land transport system to support Auckland’s social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being (Section 39). The purpose of the spatial plan is to contribute to Auckland’s social, economic, environmental, and cultural well-being through a comprehensive and effective long-term(20to-30 year) strategy for Auckland’s growth and development.(Section 79(2)). This purpose was reinforced in the next section. The spatial plan willa. set a strategic direction for Auckland and its communities that integrates social, economic, environmental, and cultural objectives. b. outline a high-level development strategy that will achieve that direction and those objectives; c. enable coherent and co-ordinated decision-making by the Auckland Council(as the spatial planning agency) and other parties to determine the future location and timing 4



of critical infrastructure, services, and investment within Auckland in accordance with the strategy; d. provide a basis for aligning the implementation plans, regulatory plans, and funding programmes of the Auckland Council. As the dominant planning instrument the spatial plan will no longer, as was proposed earlier, give direction to and align funding plans like the LTCCP. Instead it will now just provide a basis for aligning them. For this reason the spatial plan adds an additional plan to the plethora of plans that are at present part of local authority culture. That culture has led to energy being concentrated on the formulation and co-ordination of plans at the expense of implementation and monitoring. The strategy and process issues are heightened further by the creation of seven Council Controlled Organisations. There are forty CCOs already in existence. This indicates the extent to which they have been valued by local and regional government in the delivery of major public services and infrastructure to the region’s people. They have proved to be effective vehicles for the common good. They have provided a sharper focus, allowed for more attention to detailed planning, design, and implementation, and an at-arms-length way for the councils to take a degree of commercial risk. The CCOs have their origins in the LGA 2002 where they replaced Local Authority Trading Enterprises. This codified the case law on LATEs by including statutory obligations to be good employers, to exhibit a sense of social and environmental responsibility by having regard to the interests of the community in which they operate, and by endeavouring to accommodate these interests when able to do so (LGA 2002, Section 59). The first issue is that the seven CCO’s are far bigger in scale, complexity and powers than the existing ones. As Rod Oram observes: ‘Auckland Transport, for example, will control all the way across road corridors from the property boundary on one side to the other, above and below ground. It will have the power to decide between competing uses such as roads, footpaths, cycleways, utilities, berms, trees, outdoor dining and recreation, also devising bylaws and handing out parking fines. Its operation will consume 54% of rates revenue raised by the Auckland Council (Oram, 2010)’. The second issue is that at least for Auckland Transport and Watercare their expertise and strategic ability may not be matched in the Auckland Council. This raises the prospect of organisations that are meant to be council controlled actually controlling the new governing body. These issues will be explored further in a later section. Naive optimism or realistic hope? In introducing the third reading of the Local Government (Auckland Law Reform) Bill, on June 3, 2010 the Minister of Local Government, the Hon. Rodney Hide, commented: ‘Auckland has had too many missed opportunities....Today is the day Auckland’s ratepayers get to win. The new Auckland Council will be more effective, more accountable and provide world class service to its residents.... Mr. Speaker, on November 1, day one, Auckland’s potential will begin to be realised.... [T]he new Auckland Council will have the tools to take the vision forward – a united, prosperous and dynamic region that all New Zealanders can be proud of (Hide,2010). 5



Political rhetoric aside, do these claims express a naive optimism or realistic hopes? What follows are some higher level frameworks and practical measures which can be used to critique the Auckland governance reforms, make recommendations as to how the super city might work more effectively, and identify barriers to be overcome. Frameworks: issues, values and relationships Transitions to sustainability will continue to occur in the Auckland city-region in a context marked by complexity, uncertainty, diversity and change. These are part of the region’s fabric. They will not be removed by reforms in governance structures and processes. There is an opportunity, however, to respond to them more adequately. But that will depend on more than institutional design, organisational wiring diagrams, and the description of formal processes. Who fills the positions in the structures, how they fill them, and what they do and don’t do, their purposes and the extent to which these are achieved or not achieved, and the people and communities they work with and for are more important. As Anthony Giddens has observed about the work of Max Weber, analysis should focus on social action rather than social structures. Ideas, values and beliefs have the power to bring about transformations. While structures should not be underestimated, they are formed by a complex interplay of actions (Giddens, 2009, 19-20). The context in which the new Auckland Council and its associated institutions will operate has also been shaped by historical factors. Three challenges it faces are the significant neglect of the region’s infrastructure because of a failure to invest in its renewal. In the 1950s and 1960s different levels of government invested in major developments including the Auckland International Airport, the Mangere Sewage Treatment Plant, the Cossey’s Creek Dam, the Auckland Harbour Bridge and the extensive motorway system. After that, particularly in the 1970s and 1980s, central government inaction was compounded by more conservative control of local and regional political institutions, and an infrastructural gap opened up. Population has also increased at a fast pace. Auckland now expects two million people by as early as 2031, up from today’s 1.3 million. This entails more, and more sustainable, provision of infrastructure to cater for this increased number of people. The third challenge is the composition and character of that growth. Auckland is now the home of about 190 different ethnic communities. This growing ethnic diversity is linked with a cross-cutting and burgeoning religious pluralism. The values embedded in the design of the structures and processes are not the same as the espoused values articulated by the Royal Commission. It employed four principles for restructuring Auckland’s governance: common identity and purpose, effectiveness, transparency and accountability, and responsiveness (Bazley et al., 2009). What the Royal Commission failed to do was to analyse the history and theory of metropolitan reform in an international context. Cameron Wallace, after reviewing the literature, notes three different theoretical perspectives: the metropolitan reform tradition, public choice theory, and the new regionalism. (Wallace,2010). The first is characterized by its emphasis on metropolitan consolidation and the centralisation of power. The second features a narrow concept of public goods and a wider concentration on private goods delivered through markets. It also articulates an exclusive approach to the distinction between public and private benefits. The third perspective, the new regionalism, seeks to provide a level of coherence to sprawling regions and provide them with the capacity to 6



address issues. This can be done in a variety of ways. The most important ethical contrast with implications for Auckland’s proposed reform is that between a predominant regional interest and subordinated and distinct local interests on the one hand and an inclusive common good for the region which encompasses sub-regional and local well-being. The latter generates when it is applied over time and to different places, checks and balances to prevent the sacrifice of those sub-regional and local communities for a wider good without genuine redress or compensation. It entails building checks and balances into the design of institutions and processes, that modify the consolidation of regional power and its centralisation. Power is balanced against power and the real costs are identified and paid for. Relationships, as well as issues and values, are an integral part of the framework. The quality and character of a series of relationships can be used both to assess the institutional design and processes and to suggest how they may work more effectively. As New Zealand’s only global city-region of scale, Auckland is involved in a network of relationships. The new super city needs to continue to build relationships with other international cities beyond our shores, with central government, with other parts of New Zealand, and within the city-region itself. Likewise it needs to continue to build high quality relationships between the public sector, business and markets, and civil society to promote the well-being of the wider community in an inclusive way at different scales and with different time frames, with a focus on sustainable development and its social, economic, environmental and cultural dimensions. It is clear that regional government cannot and should not do everything. It will need to develop partnerships with and for others. Otherwise it will not achieve its wider mandates. Nor will it be able to move down a pathway to a more sustainable future (Hucker, 2009; Hucker, 2010a; Ehrenberg, 1999; Edwards, 2004). Partnerships are already in place in the Auckland local government scene: with central government, its ministries and departments; with businesses; with health, housing and educational institutions and with communities and community groups (Hucker, 2010a).Those already formed can be built on, and also opened up to others. There are two things to do: (i) to ensure that the partnerships are fit for purpose and (ii) that the partners are accorded equal consideration in the identification of issues and problems, and in the development and implementation of strategies and actions. What then needs to be done? 1. Focus on how to begin growing the legitimacy of the Auckland Council, its local boards and associated institutions. Legitimacy cannot be created by government fiat alone, or by legislation. It requires time; it depends on the way the new institutions actually perform; it relies on their capacity to sustain their authority by building up support and reducing antagonism. Legitimacy grows out of the quality of the relationships and partnerships formed between the institutions and individuals, groups, and communities. If the new institutions are to encourage public participation they need to listen, reflect and act. From the standpoint of those who wish to participate they need to understand that they will be listened to and that their views will make a difference, even if they are not adopted in toto. If they conclude that 7



this is not happening, they will be less likely to participate in the implementation of policies, especially where a people focus is required, and a change in our behaviour, rather than technical or engineering or financial solutions alone. Institutions are organisms and artefacts. They combine social tissue, experiences, relationships, habits, loyalties, loves and hates, and exist and change through time. They are also human creations, with organised structures, influenced by laws and accorded legitimacy by other institutions. Because they are organisms, the creation of new institutions is more difficult than it seems. Habitual behaviour embedded in culture and in practices and views of what is normal and expected is always hard to change. This entails that the creation of new political institutions and their associated bureaucracies is going to take time. Social tissue, loyalties and relationships take time to develop. Mutual respect and trust are a product of experience and need time to grow (Hucker, 2009). 2. Align the new political network towards democratic accountability and sustainable development through its transitional and other stages, and introduce political auditing as part of the process. The new set of institutions, processes and relationships needs to be seen as a political network. Essential to a network is the interactions that occur between its different parts and the broader patterns that are formed as a result of these interactions. A network is dynamic. Nor can the patterns formed be predicted before the actual interactions take place. This is why norms of democratic accountability and sustainable development must be embedded in the political and administrative culture that will influence the overall direction of the network. The transition from the present political network to that which develops from the interaction between the governance reforms and the context in which they are implemented is crucial. Transitional costs are often down-played or masked for political purposes. Auckland is no exception. At the very least, as Tony Judt argues, citing John Maynard Keynes’s warning: “It is not sufficient that the state of affairs which we seek to promote should be better than the state of affairs which preceded it; it must be sufficiently better to make up for the evils of the transition (Judt, 2010).’ The new political processes will remove familiar landmarks and points of access to the political process and serve as barriers to public participation. What is required is an intelligent and intelligible account of how much power will be exercised in the new arrangements, how it is concentrated, how it is distributed, who will exercise it, and how they can be held accountable. The content of a political audit is not excessively complicated. It will however be contestable. There are three questions to ask: Who benefits, and to what extent? At whose expense,and to what extent? What interests are served and to what extent? 3. Make the structures and processes congruent with and responsive to the browning of Auckland. The rejection of Maori seats and the two year sunset clause on Pacific and ethnic advisory panels is a missed opportunity in the new super city. It ignores two challenges. One is how in symbolic and practical ways we can continue to build a multicultural society on a bicultural base, with more respect for the dignity of difference, more tolerable harmonies, 8



more social cohesion, and an enriched sense of a more inclusive common good. The other is how to create governmental structures and processes that are congruent with the browning of Auckland (Hucker, 2009; Hucker, 2010 b). The browning of Auckland is a metaphor pointing to New Zealand Europeans becoming a minority ethnic community in the Auckland region. About 190 different ethnic communities now make their home here. There should be reserved Maori seats on the Auckland Council. The government has an obligation under Te Tiriti o Waitangi. They would enable Maori to bring to the Auckland Council their authority over their resources and their values as a contribution to the common good. Maori are significant economic actors in the region and should not be restricted to issues related to environmental well-being. Nationally, according to a conservative estimate by Te Puni Kokiri, the growing Maori asset base is worth $16.5 billion dollars. Even a portion of that committed to the region would be of major benefit (Hucker,2010b). Many ethnic communities that have settled in Auckland for the advantages it offers. It provides opportunities to make money, remit it home, obtain jobs, get a better education especially for the next generation, to enable its members to move into professions and business. The diversity of ethnic groups and the energy generated by their interaction and clustering lend to their gaining a share of what Jeb Brugmann, the Canadian urbanist, calls urban advantage. Benefits of living in Auckland stem from its combination of density, scale, the networks of urban association and the base they provide to extend the strategies employed to other cities overseas (Brugmann,2009).This involves dealing with globalisation from the bottom-up. It also means that the presence of minority ethnic communities is a source of strength rather than of strife, a positive rather than negative influence on Auckland’s sustainable development (Hucker, 2010b). 4. Modify the plethora of plans characteristic of Auckland’s existing local and regional governance, in order to allow more nimble, responsive, and rapid responses to situations involving complexity, uncertainty, diversity and change. Auckland’s planning has given priority to formulation and co-ordination of plans rather than to implementation, monitoring and dealing with unintended consequences. The reform proposals militate against the development of a new political and administrative culture that is responsive to the changing needs of the region’s communities. If this is to be achieved, more rather than fewer resources will be required for this task. The recommended planning processes are still too inflexible to respond quickly to changes that are occurring. Black Swans are also becoming more frequent as our societies become more complex (Taleb, 2007). They lie outside the realm of regular expectations and are virtually unpredictable; they have an extreme impact; and we begin to understand them only after they have occurred. Examples are the international financial meltdown and the international recession, or the leaky homes syndrome. People do not sing in the shower about spatial plans, LTCCPs or district plans. They do not perceive them as touching their daily lives. Issues however do have an impact. How to deal with questions like global warming, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, reducing economic inequalities and unemployment, child poverty, youth at risk and public safety and 9



crime, and the quality of education in local schools have greater potential to engage the public imagination. 5. The Council Controlled Organisations need to serve the Auckland Council and the region’s communities, rather than vice-versa. The reduction of the scope and duties of Auckland Transport is an urgent legislative priority. Auckland Transport, as described earlier, is too big, too comprehensive in scope, and there are inadequate checks and balances on its powers. As Rod Oram observes: ‘....while the Auckland Council is tasked with devising the transport strategy it is far from clear it will have the resources to do the job. As the governance design stands so far, most of the skills and staff to devise those plans will be in the CCO not the council. This means the CCO will not simply be the deliverer of council strategy, as the government portrays it, but rather a semi-autonomous body with considerable power to dictate what transport we get (Oram, 2010).’ In this situation two things are required. A range of functions of Auckland Transport should be devolved to the local boards. The skills and numbers of staff involved in transport in the Auckland Council should be strengthened and increased to ensure it is able to perform its strategic and monitoring roles adequately. Devolution to local boards will require further legislative change because Auckland Transport is a statutory CCO. In order to deal with issues of conflict between the seven CCOs, any provisions of the spatial plan and the co-ordination and prioritisation of their funding plans, the first step lies with the Auckland Council. It will need to ensure that its monitoring roles are strengthened. This means employing staff adequate to the task with specialist knowledge, for example, in water and transport industries, as well as with generic skills to hold the CCOs publicly accountable. CCO power must be balanced by the power and capacity of the Auckland Council. Elected representatives will need to learn more about how to exercise indirect political control through planning, reporting and monitoring instruments. This will enable them to use the accountability provisions already laid out in the LGA 2002 and the ability through more current legislation to impose additional accountability requirements. A final accountability check and balance requires further legislation authorising the creation of an independent regulator for water and transport. This could be a statutory office funded jointly by the Auckland Council and central government. 6. Pursue a robust community development approach and apply it to the different levels of the region, including communities, geographical areas, interest groups and to local and regional political institutions. Community development is:  a problem solving tool for dealing with strategic issues that require a people-centred approach and a change in our behaviour, rather than engineering and technical solutions alone;  a means of building relationships in the medium and long term to encourage increased respect for the dignity of difference and greater social inclusion;  a way of encouraging the participation of individuals, groups and communities in the public arena to help create a flourishing local democracy;  a means of building stronger communities, more effective networks, and trust at different levels of our districts, cities and region;  a method of linking community services, community education and community empowerment(Hucker, 2009, 69). 10



Essentially community development is about working with people rather than simply for them. The new Auckland Council could use this approach to help identify its strategic priorities, and choose timeframes for action, remembering that earlier successes can contribute to later successes, and that momentum and tipping points are critical. It might also ask to what extent the issues chosen affect people and their relationships, appeal to their imagination and mobilise their energy to participate actively. Conclusion The design of the new Auckland Council and its associated institutions along with the application of the sustainability provisions embedded in legislation is the given starting point of this analysis. These will not change soon and have been influenced by the primary themes of the governance reforms: radical change, historical discontinuity and the centralisation of power. The question explored is how successful the reforms will be in practice and what further needs to be done if the hope placed in them is to be fulfilled over time. It has been argued that this will depend in large part on the linked achievement of political legitimacy, democratic accountability and sustainable development. These will not occur naturally but require a series of actions based on cross disciplinary insights, historical experience, theoretical understanding, and the exercise of practical and political wisdom ( Aristotle’s phronesis and politike). They include the adoption of an inclusive common good approach to the region and its parts, and the checks and balances that generates; improving important relationships involving the city-region as have been outlined; and detailed understanding of the context, shaped by the past, in which the new political network will operate. A practical focus is required on how to grow the legitimacy of the new institutions, on aligning the network towards democratic accountability and sustainable development through its transitional and other stages, and making the structures and processes more congruent with and responsive to the browning of Auckland. Nimble, responsive and rapid approaches are needed rather than the current plethora of plans with their emphasis on coordination rather than implementation and monitoring. The Council Controlled Organisations need to serve the Auckland Council and the region’s communities rather than vice versa. A robust community development approach is needed for strategic issues that require a people-centred approach, rather than engineering and technical solutions alone. Together these suggestions are a recipe for achieving earlier than would otherwise be the case, greater political legitimacy, democratic accountability and sustainable development. List of References Auckland Transition Agency(2010). Discussion Document – Auckland Council local boards, Auckland. Bazely et al(2009). Auckland Governance Executive Summary, vol. 2, Auckland: Royal Commission on Auckland Governance Brugmann, J. (2009). Welcome to the Urban Revolution. How cities are changing the world, St. Lucia: University of Queensland Press, Edwards, M. (2004). Civil Society, Cambridge: Polity Press. Giddens, A. (2009). Sociology, Sixth Edition, Cambridge: Polity Press. Hucker, B. (2009). Community Development. A Pathway to a Sustainable Future, Manukau City Council and Local Government New Zealand, retrieved from http://www.lgnz.co.nz

11



Hucker, B. (2010 a). ‘A high level review of the Auckland Transition Agency’s draft of ‘A discussion document- the Auckland Council local boards,’ Prepared for the Auckland Transition Agency. Hucker, B. (2010 b). ‘Separation will undo all our good work,’ NZ Herald, April 5. Hide, R. (2010). ‘Third reading of Local Government (Auckland Law Reform) Bill,’ June 3, retrieved from http://www.beehive.govt.nz Judt,T.(2010). Ill Fares the Land, Camberwell, Victoria: Penguin. Local Government Act 2002 Local Government (Auckland Council Act) 2009 Local Government Auckland Council) Amendment Act 2010 Oram, R. (2010) ‘Erecting a new dysfunction,’ Sunday Times Star, March 21 Resource Management Act 1991 Stern, N. (2009). A Blueprint for a Safer Planet. How to Manage Climate Change and Create A New Era of Progress and Prosperity, London: The Bodley Head Taleb, N. (2007). The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable, London: Penguin Wallace, C, (2010). ‘Governance, Planning and the Super City. A comparative analysis of the governance structures in Auckland, Vancouver and London to determine their effects on Planning Outcomes,’ Unpublished BPlan Research Project, University of Auckland.

12



CARBON FUTURES: REDUCING EMISSIONS FOR THE AUCKLAND REGION Authors: Mr James Hughes, Mr Steve Goldthorpe - AECOM Mr Robert Perry, Auckland Regional Council Contact: James Hughes: Ph 09 336 5302, F 09 379 0179 E [email protected] PO Box 4241, Shortland Street, Auckland 1140, New Zealand Abstract Over the last three years, the ARC has led a consortium of councils and key stakeholders to develop integrated regional policy responses to address energy and climate change issues, that would map the way forward by determining how the Auckland region will adapt, manage and respond to risks associated with climate variability and the pressures faced due to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As part of the Regional Response to Climate Change (RRCC) work, two significant projects have been developed: 1. Carbon Now – A performance and systems-based framework for measuring GHG emissions, preparing reduction targets, monitoring and reporting against targets. 2. Carbon Futures – A back-casting and visioning study which projected estimated 2006 baseline emissions through to 2040 and then developed a suite of mitigation initiatives to achieve a range of reduction targets. The first stage of the Carbon Futures project involved a detailed estimate of the current emissions for the region, based on data supplied through the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives’ Communities for Climate Protection programme and other sources. Data was supplied by each of the seven Councils within the Auckland Region and an aggregated regional emissions profile was developed using 2006 data. This 2006 emissions profile was then projected out to 2040 based on a range of assumptions linked to each individual sector. The final stage of the project involved developing a suite of options for reducing emissions across the region and assigning responsibilities for various options to relevant authorities and sectors. The study provided a very interesting ‘reality check’ for decision makers in the region putting the ever-increasing ‘business as usual’ emissions projections well and truly into perspective and outlining a range of available options to address these.

4th International Conference on Sustainability and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 228 Carbon Futures: Reducing Emissions for the AucklandEngineering Region 1 of 28 July 2010 18


1.0

INTRODUCTION

Internationally, over the last 10 years, major cities have been developing plans and strategies to combat their rising Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Vision statements have become prevalent with Vancouver aiming to be “The world’s greenest city by 2020”, London; “The cleanest & greenest city in the world”, and Sydney; “Green by example and green by reputation”. The plans developed generally include recommendations and goals for reducing emissions across all sectors. While there are questions over the effectiveness of these plans to date, it is important to realise that many of the objectives are long term and require large shifts in behaviour, significant policy changes, large investment and in nearly all cases, political will. The development and endorsement of the Auckland Sustainability Framework (ASF) in 2007, and the regional vision statement (entitled the ‘One Plan’) established a framework for managing the sustainability of the Auckland Region for the next 100 years. Climate Change, and in particular reducing carbon emissions and the region’s ecological footprint are key considerations within these documents. In 2009, Auckland Regional Council (ARC) engaged AECOM to undertake a study into possible mitigation options for Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions across the Auckland Region. This project was entitled ‘Carbon Futures’ and was complementary to a second project running concurrently entitled ‘Carbon Now’. ’Carbon Now’ focussed on developing a robust inventory of current emissions for the Region. The objectives of the Carbon Futures project were divided into two Stages, as follows: Stage 1 – Preliminary Data Review and Business-As-Usual Projections: • Develop an approximate estimate of current emissions for the Auckland Region based on Communities for Climate Protection (CCP) data held by ICLEI (International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives) and other sources. CCP data was available for 2001 only, and was held for ARC and each of the Territorial Authorities (TAs) within the Auckland Region. The first task was to project a 2001 regional emissions estimate to 2006 (census year) in order to get a current emissions estimate. •

Develop Business-As-Usual (BAU) projections to 2040.

Stage 2 – Development of Mitigation Options • Undertake a Best Practice Review looking at case studies, strategies and initiatives developed in other cities / countries. • Develop a range of emission abatement options in conjunction with key stakeholders in a robust, collaborative manner, to improve the chances of uptake of the final recommendations. • Evaluate these via a series of workshops and generate a prioritised list of options along with approximate implementation costs, GHG reduction benefits and other co-benefits.



2.0

STAGE 1 – PRELIMINARY DATA REVIEW AND BAU PROJECTIONS

2.1

Data Gathering

The first stage of the project involved gathering of emissions data for the Auckland region, and compiling an aggregated estimate of emissions. The majority of 2001 emissions data was obtained through the CCP programme held by ICLEI. This data was approximate only but served as a useful starting point to understand baseline emissions for the region. CCP data is divided in two sectors: • •

Corporate (emissions from Council operations – buildings, vehicles, plant etc) Community (emissions from the entire Council jurisdiction)

Under each sector, emissions are recorded in a number of categories as per Table 1. At a macro level, these categories are consistent with those developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and are informed by IPCC 2006 Guidelines (IPCC, 2006), and the GHG Protocol Initiative Corporate Standard (WRI, 2004). The IPCC categories are as follows: • Stationary Combustion • Mobile Combustion • Fugitive and other Energy Emissions • Industrial Processes and Product Use • Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use • Waste At Council level, ICLEI encourages reporting in the following categories, which then relate back to the IPCC Categories above.



Table 1 - CCP-NZ Categories

CCP Corporate Categories

CCP Community Categories

Buildings and Facilities

Residential

Street Lights Stationary Combustion and Traffic Signals

Commercial

Water/Sewer (energy only)

Industrial

Vehicle Fleet

Transportation

Employee Commute

Agricultural

Waste

Waste

Other

Other

The majority of data analysis and comparison during this project was focussed on emissions from the Community sector, as these are obviously orders of magnitude larger than the Corporate sector emissions. It is noted also that only energy and waste data was available through CCP for Councils. Agricultural emissions and forest sink data was obtained from other sources as detailed below.

2.2

Review of Community Emissions Data for 2001

2.2.1

Energy Sector: Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Transport

ARC Community CO2 emissions were determined by CCP-NZ using proxy data for 2001 to be 9.1 million tonnes of CO2 in the Residential, Commercial, Industrial and Transport sectors. This data was entered into the CCP-NZ software by ARC staff, but was provided by CCP-NZ, based on Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) and Ministry for Economic Development (MED) sources. Community emissions data was provided by CCP-NZ for the seven Territorial Authorities (TAs) of cities and districts within the Auckland Region; (i.e. Auckland city, Manukau City, North Shore City, Waitakere City, Rodney District, Papakura District and Franklin District). Franklin District is partly in Auckland Region and partly in the Waikato Region and this was proportioned accordingly. The sum of the Community CO2 emissions in 2001 for the seven TA’s comprising the Auckland Region, mostly as derived from CCP-NZ proxy data, was estimated as 7.7 million tonnes of CO2. This is a significantly lower estimate of the greenhouse footprint of the Auckland Region. To improve our understanding of this difference a comparison was undertaken of the corresponding energy consumption data (based on GJ of energy use per head of population) by sector and by fuel. In addition, for further comparison, the corresponding national energy consumption data in terms of GJ of energy use per head of population, analysed by sector and fuel type, was compared. This national data was derived from MED Energy Data File (MED, 2007). Theoretically the total emissions for the Auckland Region and the Territorial Authorities should be the same using either approach because they come from the same data source. It 4th International Conference on Sustainability and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 231 Carbon Futures: Reducing Emissions for the AucklandEngineering Region 4 of 28 July 2010 18


was expected that the national numbers would be comparable, despite being derived with a different methodology and sources. However, none of the numbers showed precise agreement. This highlighted that there were a number of anomalies in the emissions data that need to be explored in order to establish a firm estimate of baseline emissions. This was, however, outside the scope of this study. In order to develop a robust data set to use for the study, a revised set of GJ per capita for the Auckland region was developed by adopting the median value of the three energy data points for each fuel. 2.2.2

Waste and Agricultural Sectors

The Waste and Agricultural data was obtained as follows: Waste: obtained by summing up the total of CCP waste categories for each TA. It is noted that while this was contained within the ‘Corporate’ inventory it applies to the entire community. There was significant discrepancy between each of the TA’s waste inventories – however this was the only data source available. The total 2001 emissions from waste was calculated as 860,000 tonnes CO2-eq. Agriculture: Approximate 2006 data was obtained from NIWA which indicated that agricultural emissions were estimated as approximately 8% of total emissions from the Auckland Region. The total amount of CO2 emitted in 2006 was estimated as 760 ktonnes CO2-eq, spread over the following categories (of which the first two constitute approximately 80%): • Emissions from enteric fermentation in livestock • Emissions from agricultural soils – animal production • Emissions from manure management • Direct emissions from agricultural soils • Indirect emissions from Nitrogen used in agriculture This relatively low volume of emissions from waste was considered consistent with the largely urbanised nature of the Auckland Region



2.2.3

Forestry / Land Use

The principal objective of the Carbon Futures project was to identify policies and strategies that could be adopted by ARC in order to make the carbon footprint of the Auckland region lower than it otherwise would be. In principle, policies and strategies to increase the extent of forested areas in the Auckland region would contribute to meeting that objective. However, due to the complexities in forestry (land use), emissions or sequestration potential were not considered within the regional emissions profile. However, it was acknowledged that it was an area that needed to be explored further including, the timeframe of a forest planting programme; the species of trees involved; the nature of the silviculture activity; the Kyoto compliance of forests; the ‘permanence’ of the forest itself; the relationship between ARC policies and the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and the relationship between ARC policies and the Permanent Forest Sinks Initiative (PFSI). As an exercise, however some data was gathered on forestry planting within the region. This is presented in Table 2 below and is sourced from a MAF annual report entitled the ‘National Exotic Forest Description’ (MAF, 2006) which summarises the areas of land planted in different species across the TAs within NZ. The table shows that the established forest estate in the region currently holds about 10 million tonnes of CO2, which is about the same as the annual emissions of CO2 from the Auckland region. The annual change in stock relates to the carbon sequestration potential and is estimated at almost 1 million tonnes. Data on native forest areas was not able to be obtained at the time of the study, and it was hoped that ARC would be able to source data from the Land Cover Data Base in the future. Table 2 - Hectares of Forest Planting in the Auckland Region in 2006 (Source- MAF)

Species

Radiata Pine

Eucalyptus, Cypress and Douglas Fir

Other Soft woods and Hard woods

Total

31,558

32

624

32,214

99

0

2

101

50% Franklin District

3,139

34

143

3,316

ACC, WCC, NSCC, MCC

3,830

13

166

4,009

Total

38,626

79

935

39,640

ktonnes of embodied CO2 in 20061

10,300

40

60

10,400

Annual increment in CO2 stock in these forests ktonnes/year2

980

2

5

987

Rodney District Papakura District

1

Based on carbon profiles of each species and age groups as reported in the NEFD. Based on annual increase in carbon as a result of growth. Note for Radiata, this equates to an increase of approx 25 tonnes of CO2 per hectare per year.

2



3.0

DEVELOPMENT OF BASELINE EMISSION ESTIMATES FOR 2001 AND 2006

In order to provide a temporary basis for projecting forward from CCP-NZ 2001 historical data to 2006 and beyond a number of assumptions were made. • • • • •

• •

The 2001 per capita energy consumption for each category was taken as the median of the three values based on national, regional and TA data gathered. The electricity emission factor for 2001 was 160.3 kg CO2/MWh (MED, 2006, 2007) The electricity emission factor for 2006 was 197.4 kg CO2/MWh (MED, 2006, 2007) The population growth in Auckland Region from 2001 to 2006 was based on Statistics NZ census data. The increase in energy data from 2001 to 2006 was determined using the average annual percentage change in GJ/a per capita derived from actual annual sectoral data in reported in Energy Data File for 2001 to 2006. Emissions from waste were assumed to increase in proportion to population. Agricultural emissions were based on 2006 data.

Land use / forestry related emissions/offsets were excluded. A total value for 2006 emissions for the Auckland Region was calculated at 12M tonnes. Figure 1 below compares baseline emission estimates for 2001 and 2006 by sector. Note that agricultural emissions are sourced from NIWA. Figure 2 shows the split of emissions by sector as a percentage of the whole. As can be seen, transport makes up the vast majority of emissions.



Figure 1 - Provisional CO2 Emissions Estimates for Auckland Region in 2001 and 2006

*12M Tonnes total

Figure 2 - Provisional % CO2 Emissions Estimates for Auckland Region in 2006*



4.0

BUSINESS AS USUAL FORECAST TO 2040

4.1

Methodology

This stage of the project required the 2006 Community emissions to be projected forward to 2040 under a business-as-usual scenario. In addition, back-casting of CO2 emissions from the Auckland Region to 1990 was required to provide an historical benchmark. The projections were based on the use of national trends in the per capita energy use data from the Energy Data File (EDF) for the period 2001-2006. While, in many cases the energy use by sector and fuel recorded in the EDF did not display regular trends that could be reliably used as a model for projected business-as-usual CO2 emissions, trend lines were determined as described below. The energy use trends were determined on the basis of per capita energy use. This assumption was based on the rationale that, to a first approximation, all energy using activities in the residential, commercial, industrial and transport sectors are broadly proportional to the number of people in the country carrying out those activities.

4.2

Forecast of Energy Use

For each subsector of energy use, assumptions were made relating to the likely future increase in per capita energy use to 2040. This was based on historical trends between 2001 and 2006. The back-casting to 1990 was based on the same rates as the 2001-2006 period. The majority of energy subsectors were assumed to have no increase in per capita use (eg residential electricity, residential LPG, residential coal). Some were assumed to increase at the same historical per capita rate per annum (eg commercial and industrial electricity use) and some were assumed to decrease (commercial and industrial coal use).

4.3

Waste and Agricultural Sectors

It was assumed that the per capita waste emissions remain constant and the total agricultural emissions remains constant (ie unaffected by population).

4.4

Regional Population Projections

Regional population data and projections were obtained from Statistics New Zealand. Projections were available to 2030, and were extrapolated to 2040 using the same growth rate as used for the years 2025-2030. These projections were used to project the overall growth in business-as-usual CO2 emissions in the Auckland Region.

4.5

Projected Business-as-usual CO2 emissions in the Auckland Region

The figure below shows the resulting business-as-usual CO2 emissions for Auckland Region for to 2040 following the trends derived above. From 2010 to 2040, the emission factor for electricity was assumed to be 200 kgCO2/MWh.



1990 Level

Figure 3 - Provisional Estimate of Business-As-Usual CO2 Emissions Projections for Auckland Region

The above graph indicates that emissions for the Auckland Region are projected to rise from 12M tonnes in 2006 to around 19M tonnes in 2040. This is 11M tonnes above the estimated 1990 level of 8M tonnes.

5.0

KEY LEARNING FROM DATA GATHERING

It is worth making a number of key points in relation to the data gathering stage: a) While it was always understood that the data from the CCP would be approximate only, it was felt that in general it was a good approximation of baseline emissions for the region. b) Discrepancy in Electricity Emission Factor: The electricity emissions factor used by CCPNZ did not take into account the variance in the different sources of electricity between, say, coal and hydro. It was felt that either the actual annual emission factors should be used, or generic figures of 150 kg CO2 per MWh for 2001 and 200 kg CO2 per MWh for 2006. c) It was noted that there is currently no reliable method to gain accurate, region wide electricity usage data. Nor is there a reliable method to attribute electricity usage across energy sectors. One potential source is from the sum of the electricity flows through grid exit points (GXPs) within the Auckland Region. This has the potential to provide an ongoing, practical measure of the total electricity consumption in the Auckland Region. However, it would not provide a basis for determining the distribution of that energy supply between the residential commercial, industrial and transport sectors. Commercial sensitivities may also cause problems in obtaining such data. If reliable data sourcing is not resolved, it may prove difficult to monitor Community emissions at the level of disaggregation required, and therefore it may be difficult to provide measured evidence of progress against targets.



6.0

STAGE 2 – DEVELOPMENT OF MITIGATION OPTIONS

6.1

The Process

A staged process was undertaken with input from key stakeholders in order to generate a suite of GHG mitigation options suitable for the region. The process was as follows: • Develop Options Long List (based on research and international best practice) • Develop Options Short List (through workshop) • Quantitative Assessment of shortlist (potential for GHG reduction and rough cost) • Multi-Criteria Assessment of shortlist – prioritisation (through workshop) • Input from Sector Specialists to enhance understanding • Final Outputs Stakeholders who were involved included: ARC and the TAs, Auckland Regional Transport Authority (ARTA), Ports of Auckland, Employers and Manufacturers Association, Auckland, Regional Holdings, Ministry for Economic Development.

6.2

Long list and short list

The initial long-list totalled around 90 options. This was sent to all stakeholders and each option was given a high/medium/low ranking for a range of criteria: • • • • • •

GHG Reduction Level of Control (TA, ARC) Environmental Co-benefits Social Co-benefits Indicative Cost Linkage to other National Strategies or Programmes

Rankings were discussed in a workshop situation and a short-list of 30 options was developed for further analysis. The majority of options fell within the transport sector, residential and commercial/industrial sector.

6.3

Quantitative Analysis

Next, a high level cost benefit analysis of each option was undertaken in order to quantify potential costs for implementation in relation to potential GHG reductions. This involved: •

• •

Broadly estimating the ‘order of magnitude’ costs of each option to the ARC/TA. Costs per tonne abated were ranked as high/medium/low, based on a combination of analysis and research into similar initiatives implemented in other cities. Quantifying the GHG emission reductions Identifying other potential economic costs and benefits (qualitative assessment)

To quantify the GHG emission reduction for each shortlisted option, data was obtained and a number of assumptions were developed in order to estimate the potential GHG reductions over the short (2015), medium (2025) and long (2040) terms. 4th International Conference on Sustainability and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 238 Carbon Futures: Reducing Emissions for the AucklandEngineering Region 11 of 28 July 2010 18


The percentage uptake at each date was generally assumed to be 30%, 50% and 70% respectively at each of the years mentioned above. However, options relying on evolving technology or long term planning were assessed on a delayed basis of 1% uptake, by 2015, 5% uptake by 2025 and 50% uptake by 2040. For example, the potential savings through, say, retrofitting households with energy efficient lighting was calculated as follows: Max potential reduction in energy use for lighting was assumed as 50% (conservative); this was multiplied by potential uptake as above giving reductions in lighting energy use of 15%, 25% and 35% over each of the 3 periods.

6.4

Qualitative, Multi-Criteria Assessment

A multi-criteria analysis (MCA) framework was also developed in order to evaluate the various options. This was used in the final workshop to qualitatively compare the options. Criteria used included: Table 3 - MCA Criteria

Criteria

Description

1 2

Ease of implementation Socio Economic Fairness

3

Environmental Impacts

4

Community / Cultural Impacts

5

Economic Impacts to Households / Businesses

6

Affordability – Cost per tonne abated

7

Scale of GHG Reduction

How simple the project will be to get underway Fairness across income groups, ethnic groups (equity). Measure to show if there were any additional positive or negative environmental effects (other than GHG reduction) Measure to show if there were any additional positive or negative cultural / community effects Indicates if the option would have a financial implication if introduced – and the degree to which this would be incurred. Pre-calculated: indicates order of magnitude of the cost per tonne abated for each option Pre-calculated: indicates the overall scale of option (eg wind farm vs light bulb).

Each of the options was then ranked for the above criteria on a scale from A-E: A representing ‘Excellent’, B – ‘Improvement’, C – ‘No Change’, D – ‘Disadvantage’ and E – ‘Bad’. Each letter assigned to an option would weight that by a factor of 5 (A) through 1(E). The ‘Cost per tonne abated’ Criteria was given a weighting of 5 ($1000/t). The ‘Scale of GHG Reduction’ was weighted from 5 (>200,000t) through 1 ( Kats, G. (2003). The Costs and Financial Benefits of Green Buildings, A Report to California's Sustainable Building Task Force, Sacramento, CA. Kats, G. H. (2004). "Green Building Costs and Financial Benefits." a Report to California's Sustainable Building Task Force, Capital E (www.cap-e.com). Keys, L.K. (1990). “System life cycle engineering and DF ‘X’,” IEEE Transactions on Components, Hybrids, and Manufacturing Technology, 13(1), 83-93. Keysar, E. and Pearce, A.R. (2007). “Decision Support Tools for Green Building: Facilitating Selection Among New Adopters on Public Sector Projects,” Journal of Green Building, 2(3), 153-171. Klotz, L., Horman, M., and Bodenschatz, M. (2007). “A Lean Modeling Protocol for Evaluating Green Project Delivery.” Lean Construction Journal, 3(1), 1-18, April. Koebel, C.T. (1999). "Sustaining Sustainability: Innovation in Housing and the Built Environment," Journal of Urban Technology, 6(3), 75-94. Koebel, C.T., Papadakis, M., Hudson, E., and Cavell, M. (2003). The Diffusion of Innovation in the Residential Building Industry. U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research, Washington, DC. Lapinski, A., Horman, M., and Riley, D. (2005). “Delivering Sustainability: Lean Principles for Green Projects.” Proceedings, 2005 ASCE Construction Research Congress. Lapinski, A.R., Horman, M.J., and Riley, D.R. (2006). “Lean Processes for Sustainable Project Delivery.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 132(10), 10831091. Larsson, N. and Clark, J. (2000). “Incremental costs within the design process for energy efficient buildings.” Building Research & Information, 28(5/6), 413-418. Liu, M., and Frangopol, D. M. (2006). "Optimizing Bridge Network Maintenance Management under Uncertainty with Conflicting Criteria: Life-Cycle Maintenance, Failure, and User Costs." Journal of Structural Engineering, 132(11), 1835 - 1845. Matar, M.M., Georgy, M.E., and Ibrahim, M.E. (2008). “Sustainable construction management: introduction of the operational context space (OCS).” Construction Mgt. and Economics, 26(3), 261-275. MGD - United Nations. (2000). United Nations Millennium Development Goals. Available online at < http://www.un.org/millennium/declaration/ares552e.pdf>. Mogge, J.W. (2004). Breaking through the first cost barriers of sustainable planning, design, and construction. School of Civil & Environmental Eng., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA. NAVFAC – Naval Facilities Engineering Command. (2007). Cost Engineering: Policies and Procedures. Available online at http://www.uscost.net/costengineering/Documents/policyprocedures.pdf. NAVFAC – Naval Facilities Engineering Command. (2008). Navy DD 1391 Sustainable Design Cost Tool. Available online at http://www.wbdg.org/docs/navy_1391_leed.xls. Nam, C. H., and Tatum, C. B. (1992). ‘‘Noncontractual methods of integration on construction projects.’’ J. Constr. Engrg. and Mgmt., ASCE, 118(2), 385–398. Nelms, C.E, Russell, A.D., and Lence, B.J. (2007). “Assessing the performance of sustainable technologies: a framework and its application.” Building Research and Information, 35(3), 237-251. Newsham, G., Mancini S., and Birt B. (2008). “Do LEED-certified Buildings Save Energy? Yes, but…” Energy and Buildings, 41(8), 897-905.



Newton, L.A. and Christian, J. (2006). “Impact of Quality on Building Costs,” Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 12(4), 199-206. Pearce, A.R. (1999). Sustainability and the Built Environment: A Metric and Process for Prioritizing Improvement Opportunities. Civil & Environmental Eng., Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA. Pearce, A. R. (2008). "Sustainable Capital Projects: Leapfrogging the First Cost Barrier." Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, 25(4), 291-300. Pearce, A.R., DuBose, J.R., and Bosch, S.J. (2007). “Green Building Policy Options in the Public Sector,” Journal of Green Building, 2(1), 156-174. Pearce, A.R., DuBose, J.R. Bosch, S.J., and Carpenter, A.M. (2005a). Sustainability and the State Construction Manual: Georgia-specific Voluntary Guidelines. Final Project Report to the Georgia State Finance and Investment Commission, Atlanta, GA, December. Pearce, A.R., Bosch, S.J., DuBose, J.R., Carpenter, A.M., Black, G.L., and Harbert, J.A. (2005b). The Kresge Foundation and GTRI: The Far-reaching Impacts of Green Facility Planning. Final Project Report to the Kresge Foundation, Troy, MI, June 30. Pearce, A.R. and Vanegas, J.A. (2002). “Defining Sustainability for Built Environment Systems,” International Journal of Environmental Technology and Management, 2(1), 94113. Pulaski, M.H. and Horman, M.J. (2005). “Organizing Constructability Knowledge for Design.” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 131(8), 911-919. Pulaski, M.H., Horman, M.J., and Riley, D.R. (2006). “Constructability Practices to Manage Sustainable Building Knowledge.” Journal of Architectural Engineering, 12(2), 83-92. Pulaski, M., Pohlman, T., Horman, M., and Riley, D. (2003). “Synergies between Sustainable Design and Construction at the Pentagon.” Proceedings, 2003 ASCE Construction Research Congress. Reed, W.G. and Gordon, E.B. (2000). “Integrated design and building process: what research and methodologies are needed?” Building Research & Information, 28(5/6), 325-337. Riley, D., Pexton, K., and Drilling, J. (2003). “Procurement of sustainable construction services in the United States.” UNEP Industry and Environment, 26(2/3), 66-69. Rogers, E.M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations, 5th ed. Free Press, New York, NY. Rohracher, H. (2001). “Managing the Technical Transition to Sustainable Construction of Buildings: A Socio-Technical Perspective.” Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 13(1), 137-150. State of Georgia. (2007). State of Georgia Construction Manual. Georgia State Finance and Investment Commission, Construction Division, Atlanta, GA. Available online at http://www.scm.ga.gov. Syphers, G., Baum, M., Bouton, D., and Sullens, W. (2003). Managing the Cost of Green Buildings. State of California’s Sustainable Building Task Force, Sacramento, CA. Toole, T.M. (1998). “Uncertainty and homebuilders’ adoption of technological innovations.” Journal of Construction Engineering & Management, 124(4), 323-332. Turner, C. (2006). “LEED Building Performance in the Cascadia Region”. Proc., Cascadia Region Green Building Council. Portland, OR. USGBC. (2007). New Construction & Major Renovation: Reference Guide, U.S. Green Building Council, Washington, DC. USGBC. (2009a). "About USGBC." U.S. Green Building Council, (April 15 2009). Zayed, T.M., Chang, L.M., and Fricker, J.D. (2002). “Life-cycle Cost Analysis using Deterministic and Stochastic Methods: Conflicting Results,” J. Performance of Constructed Facilities, 16(2), 63-74.



Author: University: Contact:

Pearce, Assistant Professor, Annie R. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University 330A Bishop-Favrao Hall Myers-Lawson School of Construction Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA Phone: 011-540-818-7732 Fax: 011-734-293-8538 Email: [email protected]

Title: Intended Category:

Costing Sustainable Capital Projects: The Human Factor Embedding Sustainability

Abstract: How do constructors and their associated supply chain establish the cost of green projects and systems, and what can it tell us about how policy and the project delivery process/environment should be changed to reduce this key barrier to sustainability? This paper provides an overview of the challenges faced by contractors, subcontractors, and their supply chains in costing green vs. conventional projects, at various stages of the project delivery process. The primary aim of the paper is to lay the groundwork for identifying key leverage points in the process where relevant data can be introduced and actions taken to influence cost. With this information, project stakeholders can better understand what influences the cost margin associated with green projects, thereby taking the first step toward controlling project cost for competitive advantage in the market and increasing the likelihood of adoption of sustainable technologies and strategies in capital projects. The First Cost Barrier to Sustainability in Capital Projects Despite motivation to improve the sustainability of capital construction projects, stakeholder perceptions of the initial cost of such projects are a barrier to implementation (Klotz et al. 2007a; Lapinski et al. 2005, 2006; Morris 2007; Pearce 2008a; Pearce & Fischer 2002; Syphers et al. 2003; Wilkinson & Reed 2007; Williams & Dair 2007; Wilson & Tagaza 2006). Multiple studies of the actual first costs associated with green projects have found the margin between green and conventional projects to be surprisingly small, no more than 2-3% of total installed cost for the lowest levels of LEED certification. In one study, the average premium from 33 green buildings across the U.S. compared to conventional designs for those same buildings was slightly less than 2%, or $3–5/ft2, thought to be because of increased architectural and engineering design time, modeling costs and time necessary to integrate green building strategies into projects (Kats 2003). A range of other studies have found results ranging from an average of less than 1% cost premium for projects at the lowest level of certification to 7% or more for buildings at the higher levels of certification (Table 1). Despite these quantitative studies, a common perception exists that green buildings cost significantly more than their traditional counterparts. A recent study of 87 leading construction companies in the US asked what level of cost premium respondents believed green buildings would carry compared to conventional construction (Ahn & Pearce 2007). 35% of respondents believed that the cost premium of green building is 5% to 10% compared to conventional construction, and another 27% of the respondents believed the cost premium would be greater than 10%. Less than 1% of the respondents indicated a belief that green building costs the same or less than conventional construction (Figure 1). These responses demonstrate that the construction industry still believes that green building costs significantly more than conventional construction, despite the growing body of evidence to the contrary (Bartlett & Howard 2000). What is responsible for this divergence, and how does it impact the implementation of sustainability in the capital projects industry?



Table 1: Green Project Cost Studies – Actual Margin

Study Kats 2003 8-18-6-1 Kats 2004 8-21-9-2 Steven Winter 2004 1 each of new/renov Kats 2006 4-8-6-0 Nilson 2005 1-1

Cost Premium Certified Silver Gold 0.66% 2.11% 1.82%

Platinum 6.50%

0.66%

1.91%

2.23%

6.80%

0.65% 1.9% 1.17%

3.29% 3.9% 1.03%

7.63% 7.9% 2.15%

-

0.82% & 1.56%

Point of Departure: The Costs of Building Green from a Constructor Standpoint

Figure 1: Contractor Perceptions of Green Cost Margin (Ahn & Pearce 2007)

From the perspective of construction as a production process, contractors and subcontractors represent the general and specialized units within the process that accomplish the actual production of the desired product (Gil et al. 2000b). They are the critical mechanism by which the aim of the production process is realized as well as the source of actual project cost (Errasti et al. 2007). With design-build procurement and pre-construction services on the rise, these players also have an important role in the early phases of capital projects (Horman et al. 2006). Their input has potential to shape how projects are realized in multiple ways (Errasti et al. 2007), including influencing planning and design decisions that have cost implications for the project. Together with the supply chain that provides materials and products for the production process, these actors constitute the constructor subsystem within the larger socioenviro-technical (S-E-T) system that comprises a capital project (Rohracher 2001). The literature on risk also provides insight as to how contractors approach the task of pricing projects with unfamiliar components or unusual contextual conditions (e.g., Baloi & Price 2003; Birnie & Yates 1991; Chan & Au 2007, 2009; Chapman et al. 2000; Cooper et al. 1985; Ho & Liu 2003; Neufville & King 1991), and the literature on construction quality includes approaches for quantifying the costs associated with difficult to quantify attributes such as changes in project quality (Aoieong et al. 2002; Hall & Tomkins 2001). However, to date, little of this “bottom up” understanding of project cost has been extended to address the unique qualities of green projects, including tightly coupled designs and multifunction materials and systems (Riley et al. 2003; Rohracher 2001), procurement of unusual products with limited sources (Klotz et al. 2007a; Pulaski et al. 2003; Syphers et al. 2003), existence of incentives and resources not available to other projects (Grosskopf & Kibert 2006; Pearce 2008a; Rohracher 2001), requirements for additional information and documentation (Lapinski et al. 2005, 2006; Pulaski et al. 2003), and greater involvement of later stakeholders in earlier project phases along with greater integration of their input (Cole 2000; Gil et al. 2000a; Matthews et al. 1996; Pulaski & Horman 2005c; Pulaski et al. 2006; Reed & Gordon 2000; Rohracher 2001). While some research has been done to quantify incremental costs for project design (Larsson & Clark 2000; Enermodal Engineering 2006), costs associated with incremental changes to construction practice remain unexplored. Existing research on the first cost of green projects has focused for the most part on the development of descriptive studies of total installed cost (e.g., Kats 2003; Kats et al. 2003; Kats 2006; Matthiessen & Morris 2004a, b, 2007), and case-derived explanations of cost premiums with regard to individual LEED credits (USDHHS 2006; Enermodal Engineering



2006; Nilson 2005; Stegall & Dzombak 2004; SWA 2004; Weber & Kalidas 2004) or the soft costs of LEED Certification (Enermodal Engineering 2006; Northbridge 2003). One study (Mogge 2004) developed estimated premiums on an ordinal scale for various sustainabilityrelated project features based on polling expert groups to determine level of cost influence of these tactics. However, Mogge’s study did not attempt to link cost influence with specific project conditions, and thus his cost influence correlations are very general. Other ordinal classifications by cost of sustainability best practices also exist in the literature (Tinker et al. 2006; Wilson 1999), but being able to develop context-specific estimates of the cost impact of various features would require an understanding of how those practices would be implemented for a particular project along with the cost drivers associated with each practice and is thought by some practitioners to be difficult or impossible to determine (Morris 2007). The popular literature has drawn some conclusions about what the project-specific cost drivers for green projects might be, but the focus has been largely on design-related drivers such as experience of the project team with developing LEED documentation (Yudelson & Fedrizzi 2007; Korkmaz et al. 2009; Syphers et al. 2003). Much of the work by Bilec & Ries (2007) and Carpenter (2005) on the correlation between project delivery method and green design also falls into this category, although some aspects deal specifically with constructors. More generalized costing tools exist for green projects such as US Naval Facilities Command’s DD 1391 tool (NAVFAC 2008) for preparing programming documents for new projects that will meet its LEED policy requirements, or the R.S. Means Green Building Project Planning and Cost Estimating guide and accompanying CostWorks software (R.S. Means 2006). However, the normative representation of costs in these tools does not reflect the perceived risks associated by later adopters with green projects that is reflected in the green cost margin (Morris 2007; Syphers et al. 2003), nor do they account for some of the context-specific, cost-influencing factors such as labor and material availability, market conditions, or special procurement or code requirements that may lead to higher cost margins (R.S. Means 2006). Finally, both the NAVFAC and CostWorks tools acknowledge in their instructions the need to account for overlapping or cascading effects of green features on other aspects of the facility, but neither provides a mechanism for doing so, nor do they offer insight into the potential complementarities of design that can influence cost from a constructor standpoint such as the effects of the building design on equipment selection, safety requirements, or materials procurement. Roles and Responsibilities for Cost in Green Projects Both the academic and popular literature tend to put the burden for first cost reduction on the designers of a project by advocating strategies such as integrated design, which offsets investments in one building system with savings in another (e.g., Hydes & Creech 2000; Magent et al. 2005; Reed & Gordon 2001; Hawken et al. 1999). This aligns with conventional wisdom, often expressed as the classic S-curve of ability to influence cost vs. time (Reed & Gordon 2000). Although integration and value enhancement tactics and their associated risks have been investigated by researchers in the lean construction and partnering/supply chain alliance domains (e.g., Bae & Kim 2008; Castro et al. 2008; Green 1994; Lapinski et al. 2005, 2006; Riley et al. 2003, 2005; Pulaski & Horman 2005a, b), whether or how this integration is accounted for in the work planning/estimating processes inside the constructor subsystem has not been widely studied, nor is there detailed understanding of how contractors presently approach the task of developing work breakdowns for green projects or identifying opportunities for integration from a procurement/construction standpoint (Demaid & Quintas 2006), although the process has been acknowledged in the general literature as widely variable (Diamant 1988; Dulaimi et al. 2002).



An owner- or designer-driven problem frame gives most of the power for influencing project cost to early project stakeholders, with the constructor subsystem often representing a “black box” that will determine a price for whatever design configuration is provided (Taylor & Wilkie 2008). Market forces are presumed to generate the best possible price for the product based on market conditions (Skitmore & Smyth 2007; Skitmore et al. 2006). For liability reasons, much of the detailed information about why a price quote is what it is remains opaque (or “behind the veil”) to the stakeholder requesting it (Tirolo 1999). The nuances of so-called “operative details” – means, methods, and decisions about product selection and procurement – are, in general, deliberately avoided by other stakeholders to avoid claims of damage under the legal doctrine of retained control. The focus on the owner and designer in the current body of research keeps the why of the green cost margin behind the constructor’s veil, pierced only in rare cases through detailed case studies of specific projects and the specific features employed in the unique context of those cases (e.g., Weber & Kalidas 2004; Klotz et al. 2007b; Nilson 2005). The few studies that have pursued this understanding have been mostly limited to one layer of investigation (e.g., general contractor interviews) based on retrospective data, and have not attempted to pierce the veils of other related players such as subcontractors and suppliers. This problem, which also pervades other studies of constructor systems (Dainty et al. 2001), persists despite evidence showing that better relationships among contractors, subcontractors, and suppliers can have a significant impact on project costs (Khalfan et al. 2006; Matthews et al. 1996, 2000; Proverbs & Holt 2000; Uher & Runeson 1985). The studies that have investigated these relationships (e.g., Hinze & Tracey 1994; Dainty et al. 2001) reveal a widely variable, complex set of changing and evolving relationships among players that combine to result in unique effects on the cost of each project. A generalized understanding of construction-based cost drivers resulting from actornetwork interactions and lead to the green cost margin remains to be developed. Research conducted from an owner- or designer-driven perspective also fails to take into account the translation of building features into work packages and processes that happens when a constructor prices a project (Matar et al. 2008). For instance, a simple product substitution may be easy enough to evaluate in terms of a cost differential, but more complex, integrated strategies such as building-integrated photovoltaics (Eiffert 2003; Margolis & Zuboy 2006) or green roofs (Hendricks & Calkins 2006) become harder to separate when they may span multiple subcontractors whose work also includes other scope. This can lead to a translation problem, depicted in Figure 2 for one possible scenario. While partnering and supply chain alliances might seem to mitigate this problem from an owner perspective, other parts of the supply chain such as subcontractors and suppliers may respond suspiciously (Dainty et al. 2001; Eriksson et al. 2007; Errasti et al. 2007). The problem only becomes more complex when the interactive effects of implementing multiple building features at once are taken into account (Pearce 2003). Moreover, even simple product substitutions have the potential to introduce costs that are not accounted for in normative cost models of green systems, such as unusual shipping costs for products with only a few manufacturers (Malin 2000; R.S. Means 2006). The Green Cost Margin The potential influence of these multiple layers is shown in Figure 3. Each time a request is made that involves stepping out of common practice, the risks associated with the request may be absorbed by adding a contingency cost margin that is passed up the hierarchy. Since many of these contingencies are included on a percentage basis, each margin added at a lower level has cascading effects for other stakeholders who incorporate that price as part of their price. The green cost margin may also include other direct costs besides contingencies, such as known transport costs for materials outside the typical supply chain, costs for unusually-sized



systems specified as a result of integrated design, or the cost of higher quality materials and systems (Bordass 2000). For production entities such as contractors and subcontractors, margins may include factors for learning curves, training, or other novel costs of delivery itself (Akintoye 2000; Atkinson et al. 2006). Each of these costs is context-dependent and/or specific to the stakeholders involved in a particular project. While these types of costs can also be associated with construction innovations in general, the tightly coupled design of green projects along with enhanced information tracking requirements and greater participation prior to construction makes them especially acute in these types of projects. The owner-driven focus of current research also has the potential to introduce bias with regard to the subset of the population of designers and constructors being studied. Since the owner has the power to influence selection of the project team, focusing on early adopting owners of green projects may systematically select a more innovative subset of the population of contractors (and subsequently subcontractors) who have different characteristics than the population at large. The selection of parties to participate in a capital project is non-deterministic and influenced by a variety of factors (Keysar & Pearce 2007). Out of necessity or choice, nearly all the studies conducted so far have focused on the innovator or early adopter classes of the owner population (Korkmaz et al.2009). As pointed out by Moore (1999) and others, the characteristics of these adopter classes are markedly different than subsequent classes of early majority, late majority, and laggards. For instance, later adopter categories Figure 2: Inter-stakeholder Translation Problem tend to favor technologies and practices that have been successfully demonstrated on peer projects, either within their own portfolios or within the portfolios of similar owners (Pearce 2003; Pearce et al. 2005; Rogers 2003; Toole 1998; Koebel 1999; Koebel et al. 2003; Koebel 2004). This also has implications for the types and structure of information that may be most effective in providing training to motivate these later adopter classes, which comprise the majority of the population and therefore represent the most significant potential for transformational change of the industry. Sustainability as Innovation: A Construction Perspective Given the increasing rate with which green principles and practices have been adopted by industry leaders (USGBC 2009; Ahn & Pearce 2009), diffusion of innovation theory provides a key theoretical underpinning for this work, in particular the attributes of innovations and characteristics of adopters which influence whether or not an innovation is adopted and/or



routinized in a specific instance (Klein & Sorra 1996; Rogers 2003; Langar 2008). Considered from the standpoint of contractors and subcontractors, sustainability as an innovation compares rather poorly to the status quo, especially for later adopter categories who miss the opportunity to use sustainability expertise as a market differentiator. In terms of relative advantage, the benefits of sustainable construction tend to accrue to other stakeholders or even nonstakeholders, particularly the owners and occupants of the facility and future generations who may benefit from reduced environmental impacts and resource consumption (Taylor & Wilkie 2008). These benefits may also be difficult for the constructor to see since they are typically spatially and temporally distant from decisions made during construction (Gardner & Stern 1996; Khalfan 2006), thereby reflecting poor observability. From the standpoint of Figure 3: Cascading Green Cost Margins trialability, integrated design and delivery tactics require contractors to “jump in with both feet” rather than being able to try sustainability concepts and practices at their own pace (Lapinski et al. 2005; Horman et al. 2006). The use of new technologies and products may require deviation from established subcontractor and supplier networks, thereby reflecting poor compatibility with contractor assets that traditionally afford a source of competitive advantage (Kale & Arditi 2001).Finally, all of these factors combined with the demands of extensive new documentation, product qualification requirements, and additional general requirements such as waste management, indoor air quality best practices, and commissioning lead to a tremendous disadvantage in terms of complexity (Klotz et al. 2007a). Other than altruism, the only obvious drivers for sustainability adoption by later adopting constructors may be compliance with policy or owner requirements, particularly with competitive advantage and potential cost savings not yet well-established in the market (Grosskopf & Kibert 2006) or even well-understood by owners (Lapinski et al. 2005). From this perspective, it should come as no surprise that members of the constructor subsystem have not universally embraced sustainability (Panzano et al. 2004). Of all the attributes of construction innovations that affect their adoption, relative advantage in terms of cost is thought to be the most influential (Gambatese 2007; Holmen 2001; Toole 1994). It is also directly correlated to the green cost margin in that the margin represents the difference between the innovation under consideration and the status quo, which is the reference point against which relative advantage is judged. From the owner’s standpoint, the green cost margin represents the net cost that must be subtracted from potential benefits of an innovation in order to judge its relative advantage. The margin is also a determinant of relative advantage to the contractor: higher margins reflect the potential for higher profit from a project, but they also increase the risk that the project will not materialize at all, particularly in a competitive bid situation. As a factor directly relevant to both contractor’s and owner’s



perception of the relative advantage of a green project vs. a conventional project, the green cost margin is well worth understanding in more detail. Interventions for Increasing Diffusion and Adoption of Sustainability in Capital Projects Diffusion of innovation theory also offers a framework for understanding what types of interventions could be undertaken to reduce barriers to innovation, and what types of evidence may be most useful in encouraging more widespread adoption (Rohracher 2001). For instance, Toole (1998) found a statistically significant difference in the sources of information on which adopters in the homebuilding industry relied in their early adoption decisions of innovations. Specifically, builders more apt to adopt high uncertainty innovations tended to rely on other builders, in-house testing, and subcontractors as important sources of information about potential innovations. In contrast, builders apt to adopt low uncertainty innovations relied more heavily on architects, homeowners, manufacturers, and subcontractors as sources for information related to potential innovations (ibid.). These findings support conclusions from the more general diffusion of innovation literature that while both information from external sources and experience can act as antecedents to innovation adoption (e.g., Gluch et al. 2009), scientific evidence may be less effective than other types of evidence such as peer experiences in motivating adoption, particularly for later adopter classes (Panzano et al. 2004; Abrahamson 1991; Denis et al. 2001; Lowe & Skitmore 1994). Thus, much of the information presently available on the costs of green projects, namely normative models of the cost of green features and descriptive studies of total project costs across larger populations of projects, does not provide the information that members of the constructor subsystem rely on when evaluating whether to change, particularly in high uncertainty situations. The third major category of existing knowledge, case-based explanations of cost premiums with regard to specific LEED credits, is a better match with the desire for information from peers, but to date, the set of such examples is quite limited, and information is organized by project feature rather than a translation of those features into the process-driven language of the constructor subsystem. Conclusions: Overcoming Human Factors associated with the First Cost Barrier In summary, the body of knowledge devoted to understanding and influencing the first cost of green projects is growing, but suffers from several weaknesses. With its focus on the owner and designer perspective, it fails to take into account some of the key factors involved in motivating the constructor subsystem to embrace sustainability as an innovation. In particular, the major attributes of innovations that correlate with increased adoption are all negative for sustainability when considered from the standpoint of the current constructor subsystem, although these challenges are not often appreciated by owners. Additionally, the types of information and evidence that are being assembled with the hope of motivating change across the industry do not match well with the types of evidence known to be convincing for later adopter categories, nor is it expressed in the language used by the constructor subsystem in planning and delivering capital projects. Together, these weaknesses represent an opportunity for research to better understand how the constructor subsystem establishes the cost of green projects, and what can be done to influence it. References Abrahamson, E. (1991). “Managerial fads and fashions: The diffusion and rejection of innovations.” Academy of Management Review, 16(3), 586-612. Ahn, Y.H. and Pearce, A.R. (2007). “Green Construction: Contractor Experiences, Expectations, and Perceptions,” Journal of Green Building, 2(3), 106-122.



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Authors: University: Contact:

Title: Intended Category:

Pearce, Assistant Professor, Annie R. Ahn, Assistant Professor, Yong Han Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University 330A Bishop-Favrao Hall Myers-Lawson School of Construction Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA Phone: 011-540-818-7732 Fax: 011-734-293-8538 Email: [email protected] Strategic Entry Points for Sustainability in University Construction and Engineering Curricula Embedding Sustainability

Abstract: Interest is growing regarding incorporating sustainability throughout university curricula, but the already full palette of educational requirements means that common tactics of adding new elective courses tend to isolate the concept and pit them against other courses in the curriculum. This paper presents six strategic entry points for sustainability in a typical construction- or engineering-oriented curriculum: infiltrating the core; adding electives; coordinating complementary courses; sprinkling sustainability throughout; providing opportunities outside the classroom; and integrating campus operations. It compares the pedagogical costs and benefits of each approach and shares lessons learned from experiences at two leading U.S. universities: Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. The paper discusses opportunities in terms of three perspectives on the pedagogy of sustainability: stealthy, flagrant, and a combination of the two. The paper concludes with a discussion of considerations that should be taken into account when evaluating the potential for sustainability in new educational contexts. Sustainability and Engineering Education: Creating Sustainability Competency Interest is growing around the world in the principles and practices of sustainable construction (Ahn & Pearce 2007, 2009; Myers 2005; Nobe & Dunbar 2004; Siddiqi et al. 2008). This interest is being driven by increased recognition of the responsibility of the construction industry for significant social, economic, and environmental impacts, even as it strives to meet the needs of a diverse and growing population. In parallel, the drivers for incorporating sustainability as part of construction and engineering education are Policy initiatives at the federal, state, and local sectors are also contributing to this growth (Pearce et al. 2007; Keysar & Pearce 2007; DuBose et al. 2007), and research addressing common barriers to sustainability and sustainable construction is flourishing (Pearce 2008; Pearce & Fischer 2002; Sibbel 2009). Considerable attention has been directed toward pedagogical reform and evolution to support sustainability in engineering education in general (e.g., Fouger 2008; Lemkowitz et al. 1996; Lourdel et al. 2005; Orr 2002; Thom 1996; Vest 2008; Vanasupa et al. 2009; Woodruff 2000; Zhang et al. 2008), and construction-related education specifically (Ahn 2009a, b; Chau 2007; Cotgrave & Alkhaddar 2006; Fouger 2008; Graham 2000; Graham et al. 2003; Haselbach & Fiori 2006; Hayles & Holdsworth 2007; Lewis et al. 2005; Mead 2001; Murray & Cotgrave 2007; Nobe & Dunbar 2005; Pearce & Ahn 2009; Pearce & Carpenter 2005; Pearce & McCoy 2007; Riley et al. 2007; Siddiqi et al. 2008; Tinker & Burt 2004; Vanegas et al. 2002a, 2002b, 2004; Vanegas & Pearce 2004; Wang 2009). As colleges and universities seek to evolve their curricula and programs to respond to this opportunity, the challenge is to find ways to increase the sustainability-related knowledge and skills of students in the context of an already full palette of educational requirements. The most common tactic, development of new elec-



tive courses, not only increases teaching loads and competes with existing courses in the curriculum, but it also isolates the concept of sustainability pedagogically and increases the perception that it is an optional specialty rather than an essential concept for all graduates. How can students most effectively learn the sustainability skills and information they need to know to be successful in today’s industry? Where are the most strategic entry points in construction and engineering curricula to introduce these concepts? Teaching Sustainability – Goals and Opportunities While there is general support for the idea of incorporating sustainability as part of higher education curricula, agreement is lacking as to the best way to do so (e.g., Jones et al. 2009; Wals & Jickling 2002), and a variety of pedagogical challenges exist that are unique to the concept (Lourdel et al. 2005; Sibbel 2009). To be effective, the literature suggests that pedagogical approaches for teaching sustainability-related concepts should incorporate inquiry, experience, and reflection as an integral part of instruction (Cortese 2003; Moore 2005; Brunton 2006; Hayles & Holdsworth 2007; Chappell 2007; Riley et al. 2007; Shriberg 2002), and can benefit from being situated within the context in which the concepts will be used (Anderson et al. 2000; Graham et al. 2003; Jucker 2002) rather than as isolated curricular elements (Haigh 2005; Hayles & Holdsworth 2007). Jucker (2002) and Sterling (1996) also advocate for self-determination in learning about sustainability, where students are empowered to take responsibility for their own learning experiences. Brunton (2006) identifies four attributes of effective integration of sustainability concepts as part of teaching and learning: (1) Full integration of sustainability concepts into the curriculum; (2) Student-centered activities and assessments to reward critical thinking and reflective learning; (3) Transdisciplinary teaching and learning; and (4) Teaching that emphasizes sustainability as an ongoing process without hard and fast answers. Local embedded understandings, experiences, and knowledge become a part of student experience and provide considerable insight to explain what is observed. This transition from an “investigative” to an “interpretive” approach to sustainability better reflects the context-dependent nature of sustainability (Wals & Jickling 2002; Dubose 1994). A key barrier to incorporation of sustainability in engineering education, however, is the already full curriculum in traditional engineering and construction programs (Chau 2007; Dawe et al. 2005; Siddiqi et al. 2008; Velazquez et al. 2005) and concern that embedding sustainability within existing degree programs may displace core subject matter (Jones et al. 2009). Integration of sustainability within existing curricular elements is thought to be more effective than adding stand-alone treatments (Cotgrave & Alkhaddar 2006; Haselbach & Fiori 2006), although some educators perceive there to be a conflict between core programs and sustainability content (Jones et al. 2009). Moreover, some studies suggest that sustainability remains marginal in existing curricula (Lewis et al. 2005; McKeown & Hopkins 2003), and where included, is more due to the “enthusiasm of individual academic staff, rather than a structured approach” (Ellis & Weekes 2008, p. 484). Lack of value or priority given to sustainability, often evidenced by lack of resources allocated for change, is also a significant barrier (Hayles & Holdsworth 2007). Rigid disciplinary boundaries in traditional educational programs impede sustainability education, which requires the ability to integrate inputs from multiple disciplines (Haigh 2005; Lidgren et al. 2006; Lozano 2006). Sustainability, at least in some disciplines, is sometimes viewed by educators in terms of curriculum content rather than pedagogy employed, with perceptions of sustainability as being distinct and disparate from the rest of curricular content (Jones et al. 2009; Reid & Petocz 2006).



Desirable Sustainability Skills and Competencies for Engineering and Construction Increased attention to sustainability by professional organizations and accrediting boards has raised awareness about the concept in higher education. Sustainability receives prominent treatment in the American Society of Civil Engineers’ Body of Knowledge for the 21st Century (ASCE 2008), with recognition as a specific technical outcome and as an overarching concept for other foundational, technical, and professional outcome categories such as social sciences, contemporary issues, and public policy. The BOK 2 report also highlights sustainability as being related to ABET program criteria outcomes. This recognition of the importance of sustainability to civil engineering practice builds on ASCE’s commitment to sustainability as an ethical obligation (ASCE 1996) and its affirmation of the leadership roles and responsibilities of engineers in achieving sustainable development (ASCE 2004). Within the construction domain, the American Council for Construction Education also includes environmental or sustainability-related coursework as part of its construction science and project planning accreditation requirements (Tinker & Burt 2004). In addition to basic sustainability literacy (Ellis & Weekes 2008; Graham 2000; Murray & Cotgrave 2007), among the competencies identified by professional bodies and in the literature as being important for sustainability education for engineers are ability to communicate and solve problems effectively and professionally with people from other disciplines and cultures; ability to decide and competence to act in ways that favor sustainable development; understanding the influence of culture and context and valuing diversity; ability to tolerate uncertainty and ambiguity and resolve conflicts; knowledge and tolerance of disciplinary perspectives that are not one’s own; ability to think holistically and search for integrated solutions; ability to challenge dominant ideologies; awareness of the role of humans within a larger systems context; ability to expand the scale of thinking in spatial, temporal, biological, and intellectual terms; ability to evaluate impacts and manage tradeoffs between technological, ecological, human, and economic elements (Allen et al. 2009; ASCE 2008; Ellis & Weekes 2008; Graham 2000; Haigh 2005; Haselbach & Fiori 2006; Hayles & Holdsworth 2008; Jucker 2002; Lemkowitz et al. 1996; Lewis et al. 2005; Lourdel et al. 2005; Lozano 2006; McKeown & Hopkins 2003; Mead 2001; Moore 2005; Murray & Cotgrave 2007; Orr 1992; Pearce & Maxey 2006; Riley et al. 2007; Sibbel 2009; Sterling 1996; Vanasupa et al. 2009; Vest 2008; Wals & Jickling 2002). The ASCE BOK 2 also identifies other desirable competencies for civil engineers that may be integrated into pedagogy designed for sustainability, including communication, business and public administration, design, management of uncertainty, teamwork, and experiments (ASCE 2008). The importance of lateral thinking outside traditional disciplinary boundaries is also emphasized. Desirable skills and competencies related to sustainability that are acknowledged in the literature as being critical for technical education include knowledge of people and how to motivate action; ability to work in teams and manage stakeholders; ability to cope with novel situations, analyze requirements, identify resources, develop solutions, monitor progress, and learn from the process; ability to filter, interpret, and integrate information and evidence, and situate one’s own perspective within it; perform under constraints and use ethical judgment; and embody leadership, change management, project/process management, and life long learning (Ellis & Weekes 2008; Graham 2000; Graham et al. 2003; Haselbach & Fiori 2006; Hayles & Holdsworth 2007; Pearce & Maxey 2006; Riley et al. 2007; Vanasupa et al. 2009; Zhang et al. 2008). Along with sustainability-related skills, these other skills and competencies fit well with the likely requirements for future engineering and construction professionals (Fouger 2008; Haselbach & Fiori 2006]. This leads to the question of how best to promote learning of these skills, given the attributes and constraints of current pedagogy.



Pedagogical Approaches: Case Studies and Perspectives The approaches to teaching and learning about sustainability are as varied as the institutions and programs that employ them. For the purposes of this paper, sustainability-related curriculum initiatives at two leading U.S. institutions help to illustrate the spectrum of pedagogical approaches to this topic. The Georgia Tech Experience The Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) was one of the early innovators in sustainability education in the U.S. and began its work toward curricular transformation in the early 1990’s. This work was fueled by grants from the General Electric Foundation and the National Science Foundation aimed at exploring new ways to incorporate sustainability into the engineering curriculum (Georgia Institute of Technology 1999). While Georgia Tech’s approach has evolved over the twenty plus years in which it has been involved in sustainability education, formal and systematic integration of sustainability into engineering education began in 1993 with an integrated three-course sequence in sustainable development and technology that was cross-listed across all engineering departments. These original courses provided an overview of the core concepts of sustainability and tradeoffs among its various dimensions – sociocultural, economic, and ecological – from a technology perspective. The initial overview course was followed by a case study course and a sustainable systems course, and was eventually supplemented by a fourth Sustainable Problem Solving Laboratory course that provided students with a hands-on experience in the application of sustainable principles to the solution of an engineering problem. These initial courses were ultimately phased out over time as sustainability became more thoroughly integrated throughout the engineering and other curricula. Today, Georgia Tech’s vision for sustainability education includes a broad spectrum of programs ranging from new degree programs and certificates to internships and international experiences, plus K-12 education and executive education. Over 100 courses have an emphasis in sustainability across all colleges at Georgia Tech, and degree concentrations and focused projects are available in multiple areas of study. The Virginia Tech Experience Like Georgia Tech, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech) was also an early innovator in the field with a focus on green engineering. In 1992, five faculty members and administrators in Virginia Tech’s College of Engineering embarked on a quest to start a program to ensure that “every Virginia Tech engineering graduate had an understanding of the environmental and societal ramifications of engineering activities” (Gregg 2005). One of the first outcomes of the program was a concentration (now a minor) in green engineering including two core courses in green engineering, two in-major green courses, and two green courses from other disciplines. Today, the list of courses pre-approved for students pursuing the Green Engineering Minor is over seventy-five and growing, with a number of courses that also meet students’ core curriculum requirements for liberal arts and humanities. A number of other courses at the graduate and undergraduate levels also have precedent for approval as part of the Green Engineering Minor. The curriculum impact of sustainability has also expanded past the College of Engineering to include all undergraduates. Students with an interest in sustainability can participate in a focused Earth Sustainability clustering of their core curriculum courses. Now in its second two-year cycle, the Earth Sustainability program has grown exponentially and continues to expand. Sustainability initiatives encompass the entire campus, ranging from urban planning students calculating campus carbon footprints in their environmental studio to building construction students participating in sustainable project management courses that involve service learning projects for schools in Belize. Twenty-



nine student organizations participate in the university-wide Environmental Consortium and have played a major role in achieving change in university operations and strategic planning. The role of sustainability at Virginia Tech continues to grow with the upcoming release of the Virginia Tech Climate Action Commitment and Sustainability Plan, which will lead the university toward becoming climate neutral by 2050 and transform the way it achieves its mission in the future. Stealthy vs. Flagrant Sustainability Given the variety of initiatives for incorporating sustainability as part of the university mission, operations, and curriculum, how to incorporate sustainability as part of pedagogy can be a complex question. A spectrum of strategies can be defined regarding how to approach the task of sustainability integration, with the extremes of the spectrum defined as “stealthy” and “flagrant”. In this context, the stealthy sustainability extreme represents completely transparent integration of the concept as part of the curriculum, where students learn sustainability concepts without even realizing they are doing so. At the other end of the spectrum, flagrant sustainability initiatives are completely visible and labeled specifically as such, and at their most extreme may include complete sustainability-based degree programs (e.g., James Madison University’s Sustainable Engineering degree) or even schools (e.g., Arizona State’s School of Sustainability). Which of these approaches best meets the aim of facilitating student learning of critical sustainability skills? Which best supports the desired outcome of producing students who can create a more sustainable world? Both schools of thought have their advocates, and in fact the sustainability initiatives at the two case study institutions fall somewhere in between the two extremes. However, the underlying philosophy driving Georgia Tech’s sustainability education efforts ultimately tends toward the stealthy extreme, with its initial three course sustainable engineering sequence deliberately phased out in favor of less obvious sustainability education. The Virginia Tech approach, on the other hand, represents a more flagrant approach with its Green Engineering minor and recognized Earth Sustainability curriculum. Individual efforts at each university fall at various points along the spectrum. How to decide what approach may be most appropriate in other institutional contexts? Strategic Entry Points for Sustainability in Existing Curricula Based on experiences at the case study institutions, six strategic entry points exist to introduce sustainability into the existing curriculum, described in the following subsections. Tactic 1: Infiltrate the Core The first tactic, infiltrating the core, focuses on systematically introducing sustainability concepts into most or all core classes within the core curriculum for a degree. This tactic involves, at a minimum, including a guest lecture or module within each core course to introduce sustainability concepts in the context of that course, with complexity of sustainability concepts building over time in parallel to the knowledge and skills being built in the core curriculum. More extensive infiltration may involve adding sustainability components to major projects or assignments, again, with complexity increasing over time. This tactic has been undertaken at Virginia Tech as part of the B.S. in Building Construction curriculum, with sustainability-related guest lectures and projects in the major core courses culminating in a strong sustainability component in the senior capstone design-build studio project. In terms of stakeholder commitment, successfully employing this tactic requires that all faculty teaching core courses in the curriculum must be in alignment with the goals of the program. Additionally, at least one specialist is required to work with core faculty to identify areas where sustainability can be included, and to develop and deliver the sustainability-specific lectures



or modules in each course. Coordination across the courses to ensure that student exposure and skill development increases over time is also useful. Faculty alignment can be facilitated by providing resources for training and curriculum development in the form of curriculum development grants to purchase materials and supplies, attend conferences or training events, or buy salary time to review and enhance existing course materials. Tactic 2: Add Electives The second tactic for integrating sustainability into existing curricula involves developing new technical or general electives on sustainability-related topics. Elective courses on sustainability can be either survey courses with a broad perspective on sustainability as it relates to the discipline, or focus on discipline-specific aspects of sustainability. This tactic can be undertaken independently of the rest of the curriculum and requires only an interested faculty member who can convince the department chair and curriculum committee that sustainability is a topic worthy of further study. However, it also suffers from potential vulnerability if the faculty champion loses interest or becomes unavailability, and it competes with other elective courses for limited slots in the existing curriculum. Such courses may be perceived by other faculty as a drain on the pool of students who take electives, and they necessarily add to the teaching load of the faculty who teach them and/or displace other courses faculty may be teaching. Initiatives such as the Center for Sustainable Engineering (http://www.csengin.org) faculty workshops, sponsored by the National Science Foundation in the United States, can provide guidance, resources, and incentives to faculty who are interested in developing new elective courses for sustainable engineering curricula. Both at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, this tactic has been applied as part of the construction curriculum at the graduate level. Virginia Tech has two graduate-level elective courses in Sustainable Facility Systems and Sustainable Civil Infrastructure Systems that are also open to upper level undergraduates. Georgia Tech was the first graduate construction program in the U.S. to require all construction engineering and management students to take a core course in Environmentally Conscious Design and Construction, and additional elective courses are also available (Vanegas & Pearce 2004; Vanegas et al. 2002). Tactic 3: Coordinate Complementary Courses The third tactic for integrating sustainability into existing curricula involves stringing together complementary courses into larger programs that recognize student focus on the topic of sustainability. Courses included in this type of program may be either new sustainabilityfocused courses or existing courses with topical relevance. The Green Engineering Minor and the Earth Sustainability Core at Virginia Tech are both examples of this type of program. As additional sustainability-related courses come online in various disciplines, they can then be added to the set of courses that qualify a student for a minor, certificate, or other similar recognition of the focus area. This tactic requires coordination among faculty and college or university-level approval in order to be successful. Even if they do not actively contribute to larger program-level coordination, individual faculty teaching courses included in the larger program must be prepared to take on additional students from different disciplines if their course becomes listed as a qualifying course within the larger program. While this may be an asset from a learning standpoint for students in the class, it may also represent a liability for the offering department if course loads increase and either displace existing students or require additional teaching assets due to course demands. This tactic, while it takes maximum advantage of existing course assets at the university, also requires crossing disciplinary and departmental boundaries to achieve coordination and approval.



Tactic 4: Sprinkle Sustainability Throughout The fourth tactic is a variation on previous tactics and involves introducing sustainability into existing courses through new data sets for existing parts of the course. This tactic can be undertaken by any willing faculty and requires only the need to rework existing problem sets with new data. Courses that lend themselves to this approach include basic mathematics and science, statistics, economics, and liberal arts/humanities. For instance, students taking a writing or speech course may be asked to compose a writing assignment or presentation on a sustainability-related topic. Students studying mathematics or statistics may use a data set about levels of greenhouse gas concentrations to study analytical techniques in their problem sets. Even basic engineering courses such as surveying, soil mechanics, or statics can incorporate sustainability-related examples or problem frames as part of student problem sets or inclass examples. At Virginia Tech, this tactic has been successfully applied to the construction internship-for-credit course option in Building Construction. In this two-semester internship course, students receive course credit for their work in industry in exchange for collecting and analyzing data about sustainability innovations being undertaken by their employers (Pearce & Fiori 2009; Fiori & Pearce 2009). This tactic requires a relatively low investment of resources, although it requires the interest and cooperation of each individual faculty member in adjusting course materials. Similar to Tactic 1, it may be facilitated through the use of curriculum development grants to purchase supplies, attend conferences or training events, or buy summer salary time to review and enhance existing course materials. External grants may also be available to support such efforts through programs like the National Science Foundation’s Innovations in Engineering Education, Curriculum, and Infrastructure (IEECI) Program. Tactic 5: Provide Opportunities Outside the Classroom The fifth tactic focuses on providing opportunities outside the classroom for students to engage in projects that benefit the community or world at large. This tactic is similar to others in that it can involve modification of existing courses to include service learning components, but it can also be undertaken outside of the existing curriculum as well. This tactic can be undertaken by any enthusiastic faculty member or student group. Depending on the scope and nature of the opportunity, external resources may also be required. An example of this type of tactic is the Solar Decathlon (http://www.solardecathlon.org), a national competition sponsored by the US Department of Energy where interdisciplinary student teams compete against other universities to design, construct, and operate the most “attractive, effective, and energyefficient solar-powered house”. Similar competitions exist in other disciplines, including solar vehicle competitions in which both Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech participate. This tactic can also be undertaken on a more local or individualized scale as well. Examples of such programs include the Sustainable Orphanage Project at Georgia Tech (Pearce et al. 1997) and various service learning projects at Virginia Tech involving permeable concrete (Marinchak & Pearce 2006) and other green building technologies (Collier 2006). Tactic 6: Integrate Campus Operations The sixth tactic represents an integration of prior tactics in the context of an institution’s campus as a living laboratory. The aim is for students to learn while doing useful things that benefit the campus and community of which they are a part. This tactic can be done on a micro scale (e.g., using a building’s energy consumption data as part of a class exercise), a macro scale (e.g., performing a full-scale carbon footprint analysis of the campus and community and developing a plan to become carbon neutral), or any level in between. Both of the aforementioned extremes have been implemented at Virginia Tech as part of sustainability learning, and the latter has involved not only students and faculty but also independent student



groups, facilities staff, the local town council, and the university administration. To be truly successful, this tactic requires interested faculty, committed facilities staff, and supportive leadership. Several potentially significant barriers, including existing policy and budgets if dealing with a public university, can impede this type of effort. Building synergistic relationships with facility staff requires careful cultivation and management on the part of faculty to avoid overwhelming already busy university employees with enthusiastic student requests. The involvement of a centralized sustainability office can provide considerable assistance in coordinating requests and archiving information for use in classes. Other potential barriers include lack of interoperable or easily available data and concerns regarding proprietary or competition-sensitive data such as contractor bids and detailed design documents. If carefully designed, student involvement can benefit facility staff by enabling different types of data analysis and design/implementation review than would ordinarily be done within the traditional facility delivery process. Current efforts at Virginia Tech, for instance, include involving students in value enhancement reviews of project documents. Other institutions such as Penn State University and the University of Alabama also have programs in which facilities departments provide formal funding for graduate fellowships to manage and implement these programs (Johnson et al. 2007). Recommendations: Sustainability in New Educational Contexts Each of the six tactics identified here has been demonstrated with varying degrees of success at the two case study institutions, and each has its pros and cons. Success of sustainability programs is affected by a variety of factors including fit with organizational culture, alignment of programs with institutional goals and core programs, presence of indicators and standards to measure performance, endorsement/commitment by key individuals and a culture of value or priority given to sustainability, engaging the community and developing transdisciplinary collaborative networks or communities within and across institutions to exchange ideas and experiences, leveraging organizational and resource support, and credibility and persistence of sustainability champions along with academic legitimacy of the program (Hayles & Holdsworth 2007; Lidgren et al. 2006; Lozano 2006; Moore 2005; Pearce & Ahn 2009; Shriberg 2002; Velazquez et al. 2005, 2006; Woodruff 2000). Accordingly, the first step in developing a plan for sustainability integration should be to evaluate the existing organizational context. Core questions should focus on understanding the status quo, the desired end state to be achieved, and the resources and impediments that define the path between the two, including: (1) Where can sustainability be inserted in the existing curriculum? What opportunities exist? (2) Why are we undertaking the initiative? What is driving the change, and what is the desired outcome? (3) Who can be counted on as a change agent? Who will potentially get in the way? Who is already working in this area or complementary areas? (4) What other initiatives can be harnessed or leveraged? What resources can be tapped? What is already being done? and (5) When should the transformation be finished? What is the timeline? Perhaps the most important of these lessons is to recognize and celebrate existing initiatives wherever possible. Often, the context for sustainability integration in a university setting involves scarce resources, overloaded faculty, and competing demands. Building on the successes of sustainability entrepreneurs who are already working toward the same goals is preferable to alienating these valuable assets by failing to acknowledge their work. However, it is essential to have a comprehensive inventory of what has already been accomplished. This task is often made more difficult by varying definitions of what sustainability means and what falls within its scope. Comprehensive inventories of existing courses and related research were undertaken multiple times at Georgia Tech using methodologies ranging from university-wide faculty retreats and charrettes to individual interviews of faculty by a research team using a



snowball sampling method (Pearce et al. 2005; Georgia Tech 1999). These inventories can serve as examples for other institutions to evaluate their own starting point. Which of the two approaches – stealthy or flagrant – is better? Experiences at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech suggest that elements of both can be helpful in various stages of sustainability implementation. With the emergence of third-party accreditations for individuals such as the LEED Accredited Professional designation, the emergence of university-level benchmarks such as the Sustainability Report Card, and national college or department-level benchmarks such as the CSE Benchmark Study of engineering programs (Allen et al. 2009), industry now has a variety of means by which to assess sustainability knowledge of students. The effect these metrics may have on externally recognizable sustainability programs at universities remains to be seen. For instance, in the construction industry, increased interest in sustainability capabilities of graduates may lead to the growth of more flagrant sustainability programs in construction curricula (Ahn & Pearce 2007, 2009; Ahn et al. 2009a, b). Ultimately, a curriculum where sustainability is so integral as to be completely transparent may be necessary to produce engineers who can design and build a truly sustainable world. The alternatives for curricular modification presented here will serve as a means to that end. References Ahn, Y.H. and Pearce, A.R. (2007). “Green Construction: Contractor Experiences, Expectations, and Perceptions,” Journal of Green Building, 2(3), 106-122. Ahn, Y.H. and Pearce, A.R. (2009). “Green Construction: U.S. Contractors’ Status and Perceptions,” Proceedings of the International Conference on Construction Engineering and Management/Project Management (ICCEM-ICCPM 2009). Jeju, Korea, May 27-30. Ahn, Y.H., Kwon, H., and Pearce, A.R. (2009a). “Sustainable Education for Construction Students,” Proceedings of Associated Schools of Construction Conference, Gainesville, FL. Ahn, Y.H., Kwon, H., Pearce, A.R., and Wells, J.G. (2009b). “The Systematic Course Development Process: Building a Course in Sustainable Construction for Students in the U.S.A.” Journal of Green Building, 4(1). Allen, D., Allenby, B., Bridges, M., Crittenden, J., Davidson, C., Hendrickson, C., Matthews, S, Murphy, C., and Pijawka, D. (2009). “Benchmarking Sustainable Engineering Education: Final Report,” U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC. Anderson, J.R., Greeno, J.G., Reder, L.M., and Simon, H.A. (2000). “Perspectives on Learning, Thinking, and Activity,” Educational Researcher, 29(4), 11-13. ASCE – American Society of Civil https://www.asce.org/inside/codeofethics.cfm.

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Carbon Now and Carbon Futures – a systems and performance based approach to reducing GHG emissions in the Auckland region.

Authors:

Perry, Robert, Principal Policy Analyst – Auckland Council; and Chambers, Paul, Sustainability Project Leader – Auckland Council.

Contact:

Robert Perry: Ph 09 366 2000 (x8343), E [email protected] Private Bag 92012, Auckland, New Zealand.

Category:

Resilient Societies


Carbon Now & Carbon Futures

1


Carbon Now and Carbon Futures – a systems and performance based approach to reducing GHG emissions in the Auckland region. By Robert Perry and Paul Chambers Abstract The Auckland Regional Council (ARC) has led a consortium of all Auckland councils and key stakeholders to develop an integrated regional policy response to address the critical climate change-related issues affecting the Auckland region’s resilience and sustainable development. The development of climate mitigation policy has been underpinned by two separate but complementary initiatives known as Carbon Now, and Carbon Futures. Carbon Now is a performance and systems based management framework for measuring, monitoring and reporting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions against prescribed targets. Carbon Futures refers to a backcasting and visioning study which sought to (i) develop long-term (year 2040) emissions projections, and (ii) to evaluate a suite of mitigations to achieve a range of reduction targets. These initiatives were developed in five broad stages. Stage one focused on the development of the Carbon Now framework and guidelines to provide a consistent methodology for the development of a detailed regional emissions inventory. An initial estimation of Auckland regional GHG emissions was undertaken in stage two based on a 2006 base year. In stage three a suite of potential GHG mitigation options were identified and evaluated to deliver GHG reductions and broader co-benefits for Auckland region. Stage four was the development of the Auckland regional GHG emission inventory using the Carbon Now Framework. In stage five a series of modified projection have be evaluated based on a series of scenarios and underpinning assumptions. It was estimated using a ‘top down’ approach (stage one) that Auckland’s regional emissions have risen by 17.7% between 2001 and 2008, compared to a 26% increase rise in national emissions since 1990. It was predicted that by 2040, regional emissions will increase by 87.3% relative to 2001 levels. The Auckland regional footprint equated to 10,040,084 tonnes carbon-dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or 7.02 TCO2e per capita in 2009. Revised emissions projections as developed by taking a ‘bottom up’ approach using the Carbon Now framework (and based on business as usual) indicate a 4% increase by 2015, a 12% increase by 2025 and a 33% increase by 2040. Acknowledgements The ARC would like to acknowledge the significant support, cooperation and assistance of the councils in the Auckland region, PricewaterhouseCooper, AECOM and URS New Zealand Limited in the development and implementation of the Carbon Now, and Carbon Futures initiative.



Introduction As signatories to the Communities for Climate Protection – New Zealand (CCP-NZ), the ARC and the councils of the Auckland region formalised their commitment to address the management and reduction of corporate and community GHG emission. CCP-NZ was a part of International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives global programme aimed at empowering local governments to take responsibility for measuring and reducing GHG emissions. CCP-NZ has been an instrumental systems based tool in initiating local mitigation actions, and provided key inputs in climate advocacy efforts of cities and local governments. However, the varied interpretation of the methodology by different councils has meant that comparability, consistency and accuracy of GHG inventories across council jurisdictions was problematic. Furthermore the potential opportunities that are provided through benchmarking have remained unrealised. In 2009, the National Government of New Zealand ended funding to support the CCPNZ programme. Consequently there was no single tool or programme to underpin, integrate and report the individual and collective contribution of local government initiatives in contributing to national reduction targets. Furthermore there was a fundamental need for greater accuracy, consistency and comparability across councils emissions inventories in accordance with international standards and best practice. The ARC therefore led a consortium of the councils in the Auckland region to seek a simpler, transparent more robust approach to measuring managing and reporting the reduction of GHG emissions across council jurisdictions. It also sought to develop the evidence base to inform the development of climate mitigation policy. The response was to develop Carbon Now, a systems and performance framework by which regional and local councils could measure GHG emissions, manage, monitor and report reductions against the agreed targets across council jurisdictions in a clear, consistent and comparable manner. Stage one of Carbon Now was developed by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) and comprised of guidelines, corporate and community inventory tools and GHG emission factors. Stage two focused on the development of the Carbon Futures project and was undertaken concurrently with the development of the Carbon Now framework. In doing so, the ARC engaged Maunsell AECOM to undertake a GHG emissions backcasting and visioning study which sought firstly to establish an estimated baseline inventory, backcasted 1990 emission levels and business as usual projections to 2040. In stage three, a suite of potential mitigation options were identified and evaluated. Mitigation options for reducing regional GHG emissions were evaluated using multi-criteria analysis to determine cost effective policy interventions to deliver GHG reductions and broader co-benefits for Auckland region. In stage four and five, URS NZ Limited (URS) were engaged to trial the Carbon Now framework (stage one output) in the Auckland region. Their role was to calculate a revised GHG emissions inventory (community emissions only) and revise long terms projections (the outputs of stages two and three). This was based on a ‘bottom up’ approach using regional datasets and national emission factors. The project also sought to identify a proposed project plan and methodology to establish a consolidated corporate emissions inventory for the Auckland Council and it’s Council Controlled Organisations. In stage five a series of modified projections were evaluated, based on a series of scenarios and underpinning assumptions.



Methodology - Carbon Now GHG inventories are a fundamental tool assisting local government to account for, manage and monitor their corporate emissions, as well as those that are community generated. A range of national and international protocols and standards provided the specifications, guidance (at the organisation level) and conventions for quantification and reporting of GHG emissions (and removals). These include: •

GHG Protocol, (Bhatia P., and Ranganathan J., 2004);

•

International Standard ISO 14064-1 (2006);

•

Global Reporting Institute’s Public Sector Agencies (2010);

•

Local Government GHG Protocol, International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (2008);

•

Guidance for voluntary corporate GHG reporting, Ministry for the Environment (2008).

While such standards and protocols provide consistency as to “what should be counted at the corporate level”, they do not indicate, “how the counting should be done” either directly through a tool or through a specific methodology for local government. The interpretation and application of inventory methodologies across local government is discretionary and it is subject to variability (e.g. no standard definition of organisational and operational boundaries; the inclusion of suppliers and contractors, or base years used). Therefore Carbon Now established the conventions at each of the points of flexibility or discretion in quantifying the GHG emissions from both internal operations and from the communities within council’s geopolitical boundaries. In accounting for GHG emissions, a council’s sphere of influence and control can be reported in a number of different categories (Figure 1). The Primary Level of reporting refers to a council’s own operations, i.e. the emissions arising from the direct use of a council’s significant assets and services. In many of the international protocols aimed at GHG emissions reductions, this is commonly referred to as the ‘corporate’ or ‘government’ inventory. The next level of influence is that over relationships with council-controlled operations, contractors and suppliers. In many cases the services supplied are indirect services that councils would ordinarily be providing. In the Carbon Now framework, this is regarded as the Secondary Level of reporting and is part of ‘government’ or ‘corporate’ emissions inventory (Table 1). This refers to emissions arising from the use of all significant assets and services and therefore includes the Primary and Secondary Levels of reporting from the Carbon Now framework. The variety of emission sources that should be considered to calculate an emissions profile will vary considerably between councils, depending on the range of activities and operations they undertake.



Figure 1 Carbon Now GHG emissions accounting and reporting framework

1

These are indicative as targets and are not currently set.

Essentially, under the conventions of the international Greenhouse Gas Protocol, councils direct emissions (i.e. those over which they have direct control such as fuel consumed for heating) are regarded as scope 1. All emissions associated with purchased electricity are regarded as scope 2, and relevant and significant indirect sources (i.e. those that council does not control but which would have a direct impact on the footprint size if left out) are regarded as scope 3 sources (Bhatia P., and Ranganathan J., 2004). Carbon Now is the completion of an inventory for the baseline year 1 July 2006 – 30 June 2007. This gave a snapshot of GHG emissions for both the ‘government’ and ‘community’ inventories across all of the eight councils’ jurisdictions in the Auckland region. Table 1: How Carbon Now corresponds to the international GHG reporting protocol conventions. Carbon Now framework

International GHG reporting protocols

Primary

Government or corporate

Secondary Tertiary

Community

State of the Environment Emissions attributed to the councils policies and programmes (Tertiary) and cityregion-wide emissions are also both regarded as part of the ‘community’ inventory in international reporting on greenhouse gases. Community emissions inventory are those activities that occur within the context of the local government’s policies i.e. those that are influenced by the local government’s policies, called the ‘geopolitical’ boundary in the Local Government GHG Protocols. Emissions designated as State of the Environment refer to sources within the geopolitical boundary, but outside the influence of the Auckland councils.



Methodology - Carbon Futures The methodology underpinning the Carbon Futures project (stages two and three) is detailed in the conference paper Hughes, J, Goldthorpe, S. and Perry, R.H., (2010). Stage four was undertaken by URS and sought to trial the Carbon Now framework to develop an inventory of emissions within the Auckland region, using the 2009 calendar year as the baseline. In doing so revised business as usual emissions projections were developed over the short term (up to 2015), medium term (up to 2025) and long term (up to 2040). This work refines and updates previous projections completed by Maunsell AECOM in 2008 through improved baseline data provision (Maunsell AECOM, 2008). Emissions projections were based upon 2009 baseline levels and extrapolated out to 2015, 2025 and 2040 levels by calculated sector growth (or shrinkage), based on historical consumption or production figures. URS obtained this data from the Ministry for the Environment’s National Inventory Reports and the Ministry for Economic Development’s Energy Data Files. For each emission source (e.g. natural gas) URS recorded the activity data changes between 2000 and 2009, applied a linear trend line, then using the 2009 data as a baseline, extrapolated this data out to the short, medium and long term. For less significant emission sources URS applied the overall rate of emissions change for New Zealand as estimated in the National Inventory Reports between 2000 and 2008. In some cases emission source data showed an historical negative trend. The resulting data for each emission source was summed to provide the overall projections for the short, medium and long term. Results Maunsell AECOM estimated that the Auckland region’s GHG emissions for 2006 totalled 11.93 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. This was an increase of 1.79 million tonnes in the five years since 2001 (see Table 2). Auckland’s regional GHG emissions have risen by approximately 17.7 per cent between 2001-2006 compared to a 26 per cent rise in national GHG emissions since 1990. Table 2 Auckland regions estimated GHG emissions, 1990 – 2012, Maunsell (2006) Auckland region’s New Zealand estimated GHG GHG emissions emissions (Mt (Mt CO2 –e) CO2 –e)

Auckland as % of national emissions

% NZ population resident in the Auckland region

1990

7.9

61.9

12.8%

28% (1991)

2001

10.14

72.4

14%

30%

2006

11.93

77.9

15.3%

33%

Without any further action, it is predicted that by 2040, regional GHG emissions will increase by 87.3% (based on stage two initial estimations) relative to 2001 levels. The current national Kyoto commitment requires New Zealand to reduce its GHG emissions back to 1990 levels by 2012. If the Auckland region were to achieve this, we would need to reduce GHG emissions by approximately 40% (based on stage two initial estimations) by 2012.



In stage three a suite of potential mitigation options were identified and mitigation options for reducing regional GHG emissions were evaluated using multi-criteria analysis to determine cost effective policy interventions to deliver GHG emission reductions and broader co-benefits for Auckland region. The methodology, findings and outcomes of stage three are detailed in the conference paper Hughes, J, Goldthorpe, S. and Perry, R.H., (2010). In undertaking stage four, URS calculated estimated that the Auckland region’s GHG emissions in 2009 (Table 3) totaled 10.040 million tones of CO2 equivalent or 7.02 TCO2e per capita. It is estimated that GHG emissions will increase by 4% by 2015, 12% by 2025, and 33% by 2040. Based on estimated population forecasts for the region it is indicated that GHG emissions per capita will decrease to 6.69 TCO2e/capita (2015), 6.33 TCO2e/capita (2025) and 6.06 TCO2e/capita (2040). Auckland’s carbon emissions profile (Figures 2 and 3) is relatively unique, particularly when compared to similar other cities in Australia and North America. This is because the proportion of GHG emissions is transport related (35% in 2009) as opposed to industry (14% in 2009) or agriculture (5% in 2009). High transport emissions means that any package of mitigation measures for the Auckland region is likely to be different to packages for much of the rest of New Zealand, emphasising more sustainable transport options and spatial planning measures ahead of agricultural innovations. Table 3 Estimated Auckland regional GHG emission footprint for 2009 and projections until 2040. Greenhouse Gas Emissions (t CO2e) Natural gas Coal sub bituminous Diesel Petrol Fugitive emissions Iron and steel production Agriculture Forestry and other land use Electricity Air travel Marine transport Waste

2009 t CO2e 603,450 1,611,720 1,297,299 2,498,430 225,212 1,539,205 590,219

2015 t CO2e 459,708 1,592,476 1,527,435 2,672,743 243,360 1,473,699 608,753

2025 t CO2e 292,113 1,560,911 2,005,245 2,990,709 276,913 1,370,658 640,947

2040 t CO2e 147,963 1,514,734 3,016,298 3,539,970 336,112 1,229,447 692,458

-1,206,922 1,776,226 162,420 325,128 617,698

-1,145,121 1,948,479 175,507 351,326 489,584

-1,049,072 2,273,481 199,705 399,766 332,336

-919,890 2,865,399 242,399 485,229 185,868

Total

10,040,084

10,397,949

11,293,713

13,335,988



Figure 2 Provisional CO2-eq estimates for Auckland region for 2009

Figure 3 Emissions by source for Auckland region for 2009

The ‘Princeton Wedge’ is a commonly used term to describe a series of graphical data representations, which are variations on the theme of stabilisation of atmospheric GHG concentrations and the reductions in emissions required to meet a given level. The premise behind a Princeton Wedge graphical representation is that each wedge represents one greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The ‘y’ axis typically contains atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Such a display allows the effect of one scenario to be easily visualised and compared with the effect of another scenario. In the business as usual CO2-equivalent emissions Projections for Auckland region, eight ‘wedges’ depict eight different greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation scenarios. The different colours each represent a range of possible atmospheric GHG concentrations, which correlate to various GHG emissions rates. It is clear



from this ‘Princeton Wedge’ type of representation that reducing emissions does not have an immediate effect. Figure 4 Provisional estimate of business as usual CO2-eq emissions projections for Auckland region 2001 to 2006.

Figure 4 illustrates business as usual GHG emissions projections as developed by Maunsell AECOM in 2008. It was estimated that by 2040 total GHG emissions for the Auckland region would be 11million tonnes above 1990 levels. It is noted that both 1990 and 2006 years have been used for comparative purposes: 1990 because this aligns with New Zealand’s Kyoto Protocol commitments and 2006 because this aligns with the most recent baseline data set developed. Initial business as usual emissions projections (based on a 2009 baseline) undertaken by URS in Stage four of the Carbon Now project is illustrated in Figure 5. This reaffirms that projected increases in long term GHG emissions are primarily driven by electricity and transport. Based on previous consumption figures natural gas and coal usage for nonelectricity production is shown to be decreasing, although this inference is based on a limited dataset (10 years). There is also a slight decrease in GHG emissions form iron and steel production. With respect to forestry sinks, a slight drop in forestry sinks is anticipated out to 2040, although it should be noted that the national data from which the analysis data was sourced indicated a large drop in forestry assets in the period 2007-2009. This skews the results and has the effect of putting a slight fall in the forecast CO2 equivalent sink volume (Forestry sinks are not included in Figure 5).



Figure 5 Updated business as usual projections from revised 2009 baseline data.

Detailed analysis undertaken, as part of the Carbon Now review as undertaken by URS has developed revised scenarios based on a revised baseline. This assessment was based on a deterministic model, that is, the use of a single number to represent an inferred growth rate. To provide a greater level of confidence in the projections we have recommend a probabilistic assessment be undertaken at some stage in the future that would better reflect the uncertainty (or randomness) in some of the input data. For example, population growth may be best expressed in three scenarios - high growth, business as usual and low growth. Each of these scenarios will give rise to differing GHG emissions. The results can then be expressed as a percentile i.e. 95% of the time an emission is estimated to be less than this value. ‘Monte Carlo simulation’ affords itself well to undertake this kind of work. Monte Carlo simulation is a computerised mathematical simulation technique that provides a range of possible outcomes and the probabilities they will occur for any choice of action, by building models of possible results by substituting a range of values for any factor that has inherent uncertainty. While there are multiple international guidance and conventions for measuring the GHG emissions and removals, the inherent points of flexibility results in limited consistency in the interpretation of international standards and therefore comparability across tiers and jurisdictions of local government. Currently, there is no widely available tool for estimating community-level inventories and tracking progress over time. This is a direct result of the demise of the CCP – NZ programme. It is envisaged that the next step is to develop trial the Carbon Now inventory tool across other areas of local government with a view to possible development for web based application nationally across local government. The development of a user friendly web based front end tool would provide consistent methodology and data sources, enabling all regions to include the same activities and use the same emissions factors to produce inventories. Further, a web based tool allows methodologies and emission factors to be updated centrally, reducing the time frame and cost of this exercise for all councils and maintaining comparability between inventories and between councils over time. Collaboration across council jurisdictions would thus become a great deal easier. A standardised, easily used tool would have the added benefits of: providing transparency and consistency in how local government corporate and community level inventories are developed; reducing the total workload across the country by removing the need for each council to develop its own inventory tool; assisting regional councils to build their inventories from the bottom up by aggregating their local councils’ inventories; and



assisting small, under resourced councils to contribute to the regional climate change response for least effort. Conclusion As a means of encouraging emissions reductions in local communities, a number of councils in New Zealand are already, and have for a number of years, been reporting their GHG emissions through CCP-NZ (an initiative aimed at empowering local councils to take responsibility for measuring and reducing community GHG emissions). This has been extremely important in encouraging councils to address their energy profile and better understand possibilities for energy efficiency and GHG emissions reduction. However, whilst it has helped to raise awareness within councils for the need to reduce emissions (and identify specific areas of the energy profile to target), the varied interpretation of the methodology (using a ‘top down’ approach) by different councils has meant that comparability is difficult. A need for greater consistency in the interpretation and reporting of GHG emissions, coupled with a need for greater comparability and compatibility between council’s emissions figures, has led ARC to seek a simpler approach to the accounting for emissions. The Carbon Now framework introduces a clear and concise approach for local government to measure emissions, to prepare reduction targets and to provide the opportunity to track reductions against the agreed targets. All councils within the Auckland region are signed up to this framework. Initial estimations indicate that the Auckland region’s GHG emissions for 2006 totalled 11.93 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. This was an increase of 1.79 million tonnes in the five years since 2001. The Auckland’s regional GHG emissions have risen by approximately 17.7% between 2001-2006 compared to a 26% rise in national GHG emissions since 1990. Without any further action, it is predicted that by 2040, regional GHG emissions will increase by 87.3% relative to 2001 levels (based on stage two initial estimations). The current national Kyoto commitment requires New Zealand to reduce its GHG emissions back to 1990 levels by 2012. If the Auckland region were to achieve this, we would need to reduce GHG emissions by approximately 40% (based on stage two initial estimations) by 2012.



References Bhatia P., and Ranganathan J., (2004). The Greenhouse Gas Protocol – A Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard, revised edition. Published by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development and the World Resources Institute. Global Reporting Institute’s Public Sector Agencies (2010). GRI Reporting in Government Agencies. Retrieved from http://www.globalreporting.org International Energy Agency. (2009). CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion. Paris, France. Hughes, J, Goldthorpe, S. and Perry, R.H., (2010). Carbon Futures: Reducing Emissions for the Auckland Region. Unpublished. International Standard ISO14064-1 Greenhouse Gases Part 1 (2006): Specification with guidance at the organisation level for quantification and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. ISO 2006. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2006). Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, Eggleston H.S., Buendia L., Miwa K., Ngara T. and Tanabe K. (eds). Published: IGES, Japan. International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (2008). International Local Government for Sustainability GHG Emissions Analysis Protocol. Ministry for the Environment (2008). Guidance for Voluntary, Corporate Greenhouse Gas Reporting – Data and methods for the 2006 calendar year. Ministry for the Environment (2008). Draft International Local Government GHG Emissions Analysis Protocol (2008). Guidance for Voluntary, Corporate Greenhouse Gas Reporting – Data and methods for the 2006 calendar year. Maunsell AECOM (2006) ARC Carbon Futures Stage 1; Statistics New Zealand. Internal report to Auckland Regional Council.



Maunsell AECOM (2008) Carbon Futures baseline data review. Client report for Auckland Regional Council, Auckland, New Zealand Ministry for the Environment (2005). Review of Climate Change Policies. Retrieved from http://www.mfe.govt.nz/ publications/climate/policy-review-05/index. html. Ministry for the Environment (2010). New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2008. Retrieved from http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/ climate/greenhouse-gasinventory-2009/ index.html. Ministry of Economic Development (2010). New Zealand Energy Data File: 2009 Calendar Year Edition. Retrieved from http://www.med.govt.nz/energy/edf. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2010). Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data. Retrieved from http://unfccc.int/.



Principal Author:

Powell, Dr Felicity

Other Author:

Harding, Dr Abigail

The renaissance of inner city living and its implications for infrastructure: A Wellington case study Affiliation: Opus Central Laboratories Contact Details for Principal Author: PO Box 30-845, Lower Hutt, 5040; Tel. 04 587 0635; Fax. 04 587 0604; Email [email protected] Intended Category: Beyond Today’s Infrastructure

Abstract One anticipated result of an increase in petrol prices is that the number of people living in inner cities will increase, thus reducing residents’ need to travel to places of employment, entertainment and retailing. In various ways, local authorities in New Zealand are already encouraging and enabling more people to live in city centres. As more people move into the centre of cities, it is increasingly important to understand the changes taking place. Using two case study areas in central Wellington, the aim of this paper is to identify the transformations that have occurred, evidencing that inner city living is emerging as an important feature of contemporary society. The implications of these changes on the infrastructure required by an expanding residential population are also discussed. Empirical discussion is based on two separate forms of information and analysis as follows: • The global renaissance of inner city living: Evidence is presented of the revival of inner city living. To put this into context, some of the main changes to inner city Wellington that have occurred from early European settlement to the present day are investigated. • Contemporary transformations of inner city areas: This part of the research uses property ratings data from 1994-2009 to document the transformations occurring to property functions (e.g. retailing, healthcare, warehousing, residential) in two parts of central Wellington: Te Aro and Thorndon. The empirical evidence suggests that recent transformations are not uniform, are location specific and have occurred rapidly. If economic and social processes are aligned with local and national state policies, then further swift transformations are possible in the future.

Introduction It is anticipated that as the cost of transport fuel increases, the number of people living in inner cities will also increase, reducing travel distances to places of employment and sites of consumption. In various ways, local authorities in New Zealand, like those in other countries, are already encouraging and enabling more people to live in city centres. At the same time, developers are providing people with the inner city living opportunities they seek. Although New Zealand policy-makers are seeking to understand the changes to their inner cities, scholars have paid scant attention in recent years to urban land use changes with the



possible exception of Murphy (2008). The purpose of this paper is to investigate recent transformations to Wellington’s inner city and suggest possible implications for infrastructure providers if these trends are sustained. In particular, analysis and discussion is focussed on the suburbs of Te Aro and Thorndon. This paper is divided into five sections. First, we discuss post-industrial land use transformation, the concurrent repopulation of city centres, and link these to gentrification. Second, we look at the broad changes that have occurred to Wellington’s inner city since European settlement, and the likely causes of increased demand for and supply of inner city living. Third, using property ratings data we examine land use changes in Te Aro and Thorndon since the mid 1990s. In the fourth section we discuss the implications of the trend towards increased inner city living for infrastructure providers. Finally we conclude by linking the adaptation of Wellington’s inner city to the broad arguments about post-industrial land use changes and the future repercussions.

1

Transformations of post-industrial land use and the resurgence of inner city living

During the Nineteenth and early Twentieth Centuries, land use in most cities was led by industrialisation, resulting in the rapid expansion of urban areas as population numbers grew. Before motorised transport, workers’ residences had to be located in close proximity to places of employment because travelling long distances from home to work was too expensive or difficult. From the late Nineteenth Century, the construction of suburban transport infrastructure allowed cities to expand into new suburbs on the fringes of the old city. As time passed, many employers also relocated outwards to cheaper locations. Over the last 20-30 years, people have returned to live in the centres of cities, resulting in a dramatic change in land use. Contributory factors include: the decline of manufacturing employment; the rise of employment in the financial, service and creative industries; changes in communications technologies; social changes, such as the greater participation of women in the workforce; the strengthening of globalisation and localisation processes; and the rescaling of the state (Smith, 1986). In addition to their impact on economic and social processes, post-industrial changes have impacted on the built environment (Hamnett & Whitelegg, 2007; Ley, 1996; Savitch, 1988). Examples include the closure and abandonment of old factories, the decline of transport infrastructure such as ports, railways and warehouses, and the dereliction of former workers’ housing. In an attempt to attract mobile capital and labour, local governments have taken a more active role in enabling the modernisation of the urban built environment through local economic development, urban design and cultural strategies, resulting in the development of new commercial buildings that accommodate the latest information technology, and the creation of new civic, cultural and recreation spaces (Hamnett & Whitelegg, 2007; Murphy, 2008). Amidst these changes, since the 1960s there has been a movement of middle classes into areas previously occupied by the working class and the poor (Glass, 1964). The term ‘gentrification’ has been used to describe this shift with definitions evolving over time to include apartment conversions and then later new-build developments (Hamnett & Whitelegg,



2007; Murphy, 2008; Wulff & Lobo, 2009). New residents and development interests are not the sole agents in the gentrification process, as the state also plays an important role as a facilitator or supporter of the process (Lees, 2009; Smith, 2002).

2

Inner-city land use in Wellington City (1840-2010)

Similar trends to those discussed in the preceding section have been evident in Wellington. Since European settlement, the city has been shaped by economic and social processes. At the same time, central and local government have sought (not always successfully) in different ways to support the development and redevelopment of the city. We outline below some of the key themes and events that have shaped Wellington, with particular reference to the suburbs of Te Aro and Thorndon. European settlement in 1840 marked the beginning of Wellington as we know it today. The initial colonial settlement was sited on the only two pieces of flat land available, which today form parts of the suburbs of Te Aro and Thorndon. Even before Wellington became the capital, Thorndon was designated by colonial administrators as the centre of government (Lowe, 2001; McLean, 2000). Town acres in the northern part of Thorndon were owned mainly by the city’s elite and provincial run holders not under pressure to develop. When subdivision eventually occurred, the sections remained large and the houses were grand. By contrast Te Aro, with its safe moorings for shipping, became the focus of commercial activity in the settlement (Hamer, 1990). As land here was swampy, Te Aro became more industrialised than Thorndon though in due course housing for workers followed. Once Wellington became the nation’s capital in 1865, many businesses relocated their head offices or established branches in the city to gain the advantages of being close to government (Humphris & Mew, 2009). However the city barely expanded beyond its early boundaries, and commerce and industry pushed further into Te Aro. There were no controls of subdivision and as immigration increased, speculative builders subdivided sections to create land parcels as small as 126 square metres in Te Aro. The high densities of housing formed slums with little or no sanitation, leading to outbreaks of cholera and typhus. The threat of disease and the development of transport infrastructure in the city hastened the shift of residents outwards to new suburbs from the late Nineteenth Century. The 1930s Depression ended the suburban housing boom as finance for mortgages dried up. As about a quarter of the city’s housing stock was decrepit, the inner city suburbs were home to the city’s poor and transient, with many of the once grand houses in Thorndon converted into boarding hostels or rental properties (Lowe, 2004; McKinnon, 1997; Schrader, 1996). To address the housing crisis, the 1935 Labour government had amongst its early policies a public housing scheme and a widening of financial assistance for home purchase. However the new suburban homes were expensive and Te Aro’s older population fell outside the Government’s target group for rehousing, so slums remained until the early 1960s. With its broader focus on social welfare following Labour’s election, the public service expanded, requiring more office accommodation. The area to the east of Parliament in Thorndon was identified as a suitable location for a ‘government centre’ leading to the progressive demolition of old houses and shops and the razing of some of Thorndon’s original streets (Black, Kelly, & Cochran, 2008). In their place new buildings were built from the late 1960s to house government departments and company headquarters. More houses and streets



were lost elsewhere in Thorndon when the urban motorway was constructed in 1974. At the same time, marking an early stage in the gentrification process, people began renovating former workers’ cottages in the suburb, and flats and hostels were restored to single residences (Lowe, 2001). Meanwhile little had been done to clear slums in Te Aro despite earlier pledges. Local authorities were empowered by the 1945 Housing Improvement Act to redevelop their urban areas, but schemes to improve Te Aro were criticised as being little more than traffic plans (Schrader, 1996; Walker, 1996). The absence of housing from these schemes was also said to contribute to the continued flight of residents to the suburbs. The trend was sustained into the 1970s, and between 1945 and 1979 the number of dwellings in Wellington’s inner city halved and the residential population fell by two-thirds (Edridge, 1983). From the early 1980s wider economic and social processes began to transform the centre of Wellington. The 1979 District Scheme Review ended zoning that excluded residential as a permissible use in the inner city and at the same time new life was breathed into the city in the evenings and weekends as reforms liberalised shop trading hours and alcohol licensing laws ((Edridge, 1983; Wellington Civic Trust, 2002). Many older commercial buildings were no longer economically viable and stood empty as the national economy restructured and businesses relocated out of the city (Edridge, 1983; Holden & Gjerde, 2009). Much of this older building stock fell victim to the demolition ball, when, in 1983, the Council indicated its intention to require the demolition or strengthening of old masonry buildings likely to be dangerous in an earthquake (Kernohan, McHaffie, & Gard'ner, 1994). Financial deregulation in 1984 also had an impact on the city’s built form as investment companies were given more flexibility to invest in sectors of their choice like commercial real estate (Page, 1996). This encouraged further demolitions as developers constructed high rise office buildings, and by 1987 Wellington was in a building frenzy that saw property values double from $7.2 to $15 billion in three years (McGill, 2003).. Following the 1987 stock market crash, share prices of property companies fell dramatically, saving the city from further planned mega-developments (Moricz & Murphy, 1997; Morrison & O'Malley, 1992). Excess capacity saw office vacancy rates hit 27% (Schouten, 2010) and this weakened property market had two effects. First, it led to Council-funded experiments with waterfront apartments that confirmed latent demand for inner city living (Morrison & Schrader, 2010). Second, rising office vacancies and increasing earthquake insurance premiums made apartment conversions more attractive to property developers (Morrison & McMurray 1999; Roakes, Barrows, & Jacobs, 1994). After 1991 Wellington’s growth pattern was reversed as the centre of the city grew and development on its periphery slowed (Morrison, 2000). Demand for inner city living resulted from: increased value placed on ‘time’, resulting in workers wishing to spend less time commuting and more time earning; the highly centralised employment structure in Wellington; the Council’s response to competition from other cities for mobile labour and capital that resulted in improvements in local infrastructure and the creation of a cultural image for the city; the growth in the number of households seeking an alternative to suburban living; and the return from overseas of New Zealanders with their experience of urban living alongside new immigrants from more urban cultures (Holden & Gjerde, 2009; Morrison, 2000).



Also contributing to the development of inner city apartments in the early 1990s was a new generation of city planners and councillors who openly encouraged conversions through changes to the consents process, making rates breaks available, and the provision of funding assistance for the reinforcement of buildings that required earthquake strengthening (Edridge, 1983; Morrison & McMurray, 1999). As investment opportunities on the urban fringe dried up for developers, the inner city became an attractive proposition. The pattern slowly changed from conversions to new-build apartments, and by 2010 there were an estimated 6500 apartments in the central city with a further 1100 apartments being built, or due to be, before the end of 2011 (Fisher, 2010; Fisher & Harris, 2010). In 2010 few sites remain within the traditional CBD area suitable for commercial development. There is a strong preference for office accommodation in the northern part of the city due to its proximity to the government centre and transport hubs, though there has also been a shift towards building offices on port land (Bayleys Research, 2009). The public service has been one of the most active tenants commissioning additional and consolidated office space, preferring one tenancy to many. These recent changes to the inner city’s built environment are explored in more detail in the next section.

3

Transformations in land use in Te Aro and Thorndon since the mid 1990s

Using annual property ratings data provided by Property IQ, we examined in more detail the land use transformations that have occurred since the mid 1990s in two of Wellington’s oldest inner city suburbs, Te Aro and Thorndon. At a Census meshblock level, this data included the number of properties, and land and building area occupied by property type (that is Commercial, Industrial, Residential and Other). Within each of these four categories, properties are sub-classified to a more detailed level such as Commercial Retail, Commercial Office, Industrial Warehouses or Residential Vacant. Ratings data was provided from 1991 to 2009, but the first three years of data was categorised differently making comparisons awkward. Data was therefore analysed from 1994 onwards, and is summarised in Table 1. Rather than analyse data for the whole of each suburb, 28 meshblocks in Thorndon and 25 meshblocks in Te Aro were selected for investigation. Meshblocks in Thorndon were selected that contained both residential and non-residential properties in 2010. An area in Te Aro of comparable size and containing a mix of property types was also selected (see Figure 1). From the data significant growth in the numbers of residential properties and residential building floor space is evident in both suburbs. The amount of land area occupied by residential property has also increased in both suburbs but not to the same degree as building floor area. This difference can be explained by the fact that 97% of the additional residential building floor area in Thorndon (94% in Te Aro) is occupied by dwellings that share land or party walls with other properties like units, flats on cross lease, and townhouses. This newly built accommodation is therefore medium or high density housing, requiring less land area than traditional low density housing. Certainly in Thorndon, prior to 1994 about a third of residential building floor area was occupied by single dwellings, but 15 years later this proportion had dropped to 18%, reflecting the construction of higher density housing. In Te Aro though, there were few dwellings in 1994, as at that time the suburb was dominated by commercial and industrial properties. Although even now residential land use remains low, residential usage of building floor area is the second highest after commercial usage, having



exceeded industrial floor area for the first time in 2006. The data relating to industrial property in Te Aro is unambiguous, confirming that industry is vacating the inner city. Most of the decline relates to warehouses which by 2009 accounted for roughly half the building area occupied by warehouses fifteen years earlier.

Table 1: Property categories in Te Aro and Thorndon, 1994 and 2009

Category Te Aro count

Te Aro land area

Te Aro building floor

Thorndon count

Thorndon land area

Thorndon building floor

Sub-category Commercial Industrial Residential Other Commercial Industrial Residential Other Commercial Industrial Residential Other Commercial Industrial Residential Other Commercial Industrial Residential Other Commercial Industrial Residential Other

1994 146 141 5 12 135,140 83,306 368 37,862 269,897 101,210 830 17,760 78 21 234 29 124,080 26,389 38,175 80,670 243,610 46,580 33,570 41,790

2009 744 106 1,233 29 163,650 58,566 2,656 91,227 299,316 63,743 114,387 77,828 287 19 894 43 134,360 22,912 41,928 122,560 281,849 44,200 94,042 61,954

% change (1994-2009) 410% -25% 24560% 142% 21% -30% 622% 141% 11% -37% 13682% 338% 268% -10% 282% 48% 8% -13% 10% 52% 16% -5% 180% 48%

Figure 1: Map showing study areas in Thorndon and Te Aro



Even though commercial properties in Te Aro continue to dominate land and building usage, the 410% increase in the number of commercial properties is somewhat misleading. The commercial category includes separately rated car parks, which number 481 of the 744 commercial properties in Te Aro in 2009. If car parks are ignored, then the number of commercial properties has still increased by 83% since 1994 with the uplift due to additional retail properties (from 43 to 90) and properties classified as multiple (or other) commercial (from 14 to 81). The construction of car parks in Thorndon also makes the increase in commercial properties deceptive, with 170 parks constructed here. Apart from these, the largest increase in Thorndon’s commercial property has been in the number of offices which has increased by 50% from 50 to 75 in 2009. Building floor area occupied by offices in Thorndon has increased by a third over the period, and in 2009 occupied the most space in the suburb, equating to 46% of total building floor area and 20% of land area. Whereas the number of offices in Te Aro had barely changed over the same period, building floor area occupied by offices had declined by a quarter. In 1994 offices in Te Aro had occupied the most building floor area, but by 2008 this primary position was held by dwellings. Offices had also been the largest usage of Te Aro’s land area in 1994, but land area occupied by offices declined by 37% in 2009. Retailing is now the biggest single usage of land area in this part of the city.

4

Implications for inner city infrastructure

The evidence presented in the previous section confirms that higher density living has become more established in our case study areas, and indeed is now a dominant form of land and building use. Having a larger population living in one place makes it possible to achieve greater economies of scale in terms of infrastructure, facilities and services provision. In this section we outline some of the features that infrastructure providers will need to consider as more people move into the centres of cities and higher density living becomes more common. Utilities infrastructure: Fewer opportunities to reduce resource consumption and contribute towards production are available when retrofitting multi-unit buildings than for private detached dwellings (Ghosh, Vale, & Vale, 2006). It is recommended that to offset the additional demand for power and water resulting from residential intensification, enhancements to improve sustainability are built into multi-unit buildings as they are constructed. Neighbourhood quality: People’s satisfaction with where they live is related to how they balance different aspects of their neighbourhood, such as green areas, noise, and recreational services (Walton, Murray, & Thomas, 2008). Without investment in the public infrastructure in the immediate neighbourhood, it can detract from residents’ quality of life in a town centre (Dupuis & Dixon, 2008). Existing open space needs to be well-maintained and attractive, and for cities that do not have existing open space or landscape features like harbours in close proximity to high density living, new open space opportunities should be provided. Social diversity: If more people choose to live in the inner cities, it might be expected that the types of people who are inner city residents will expand beyond the typically young singles, and young/older couples presently living in the centres of cities. Consideration is needed of



the infrastructure requirements of the additional services/facilities, such as childcare, aged care, education, healthcare, and playspace, required by a wider demographic. Transport: One of the main drivers for inner city living is that it reduces the need to travel by car, but many people who live in the centres of cities still own a car, retaining a vehicle for business related travel and recreational trips outside the city (Witten, McCreanor, & Rose, 2006). Although it is unlikely that car ownership will be completely abandoned, it is expected that use of public transport will increase, and indeed wanting good public transport is likely to be a motivating factor for living in higher density areas (Walton, Murray, & Thomas, 2008). At present recreational travel on public transport is under catered for in terms of timetabling and destination, and would need to be expanded to meet the needs of residents who choose to live without their own vehicles (Dravitzki & Lester, 2007).

5

Renaissance of inner city living and its future implications

Over the last 170 years Wellington has evolved from a colonial settlement to a post-industrial city, sharing many of the features and transformation processes experienced in cities elsewhere in the world. Through the actions of national and local governments, the private sector, and its residents, the city expanded outwards from its original location near the harbour into low density, mainly residential, suburbs. Until the early 1990s the inner city was dominated by commerce and industry, whilst living in the centre of the city meant either low density housing in prestigious suburbs or medium density apartment blocks. The stock market crash at the end of the 1980s led to sweeping changes in the inner city as more dwellings were built in either converted buildings or new-build developments. This was facilitated by a Council that actively sought to increase its inner city population and by wider economic and social processes also occurring. The different waves of population movements into Wellington’s centre embody the process of gentrification. The analysis of the ratings data presents a detailed picture of the transformations that have taken place in Wellington’s inner city over the last 15 years, reflecting the differing situations of the two suburbs chosen for study. On the one hand, both suburbs share the same experience of a significant expansion of the new-build dwelling sector. As these types of dwellings are mainly high density, the impact of this expansion in both suburbs is greater in terms of building area than in land usage. Te Aro, in particular, has undergone a dramatic change in terms of residential usage over the period, from having almost no residential provision in the mid 1990s to multi-unit dwellings becoming the single most prolific use of building floor area in less than 15 years. In other ways, the patterns of change in Te Aro and Thorndon have differed. The importance of office space in Thorndon has consolidated. In part this reflects Thorndon’s role as the location of the government centre and the desire of the public service to combine different offices. Another reason for office expansion in this area is its proximity to transport interchanges, enabling easy access to commuters travelling into the city. In Te Aro by comparison, office space has retracted, suggesting that this part of the city has become less desirable for this type of property and that redevelopment into other forms of usage like retailing and residential is more profitable. Indeed, it seems evident that Te Aro has undergone dramatic changes with the recession of office and industrial usages and a boom in terms of residential and retailing. Whereas little more than a decade ago Te Aro (with the



exception of Courtenay Place) would have been deserted outside working hours as employees departed for the suburbs, now it is alive in the evenings and weekends. This study identified that the current transformations affecting inner cities are not uniform and are location specific. In some ways, these changes reflect early development decisions and each suburb’s distinctive history, like Thorndon’s designation as the government centre by colonial administrators. It is also evidenced that significant changes can occur over a short period of time, suggesting that if economic and social processes are aligned with local and national state policies, then further swift transformations are possible in the future. This is important as changes to fuel prices may stimulate more people to move into the centres of cities, increasing demand for greater residential provision. This will have implications for infrastructure providers who will need to predict accurately and promptly what new and altered infrastructure will be required to ensure that inner city living is sustainable for future generations.

6

References

Bayleys Research (2009). Commercial Property Research: Wellington CBD Office. Wellington: Author. Black, J., Kelly, M., & Cochran, C. (2008). Thorndon heritage project. Wellington: Wellington City Council. Dravitzki, V., & Lester, T. (2007) Can we live by public transport alone? Paper presented at Transport: The Next 50 Years conference, Christchurch. 25-27 July, 2007. Dupuis, A. & Dixon, J. (2008). From Sprawling City to Sustainable Urban Form?:A New Zealand Case Study. Paper to be presented at the European Network for Housing Research Conference, Shrinking Cities, Sprawling Suburbs, Changing Countrysides. Dublin. 6th – 9th July, 2008. Edridge, G. J. (1983). Inner city housing: The case for the re-establishment of a residential population in Wellington’s inner urban area. Unpublished thesis. Victoria University of Wellington. Fisher, A. (2010, July 10). Developer mothballs plans for two apartment blocks. The Dominion Post. Fisher, A. & Harris, C. (2010, July 9). Wellington apartment market close to free fall. The Dominion Post, p. A1. Ghosh, S., Vale, R., & Vale, B. (2006) Domestic energy sustainability of different urban residential patterns: A New Zealand approach. International Journal of Sustainable Development, 9 (1), 16-37 Glass, R. (1964). Introduction. In London: Aspects of change. London: Centre for Urban Studies Hamer, D. (1990). Wellington on the urban frontier. In D. Hamer, & R. Nicholls, The making of Wellington 1800-1914. Wellington: Victoria University Press. Hamnett, C., & Whitelegg, D. (2007). Loft conversion and gentrification in London: from industrial to postindustrial land use. Environment and Planning A , 39, 106-124. Holden, G., & Gjerde, M. (2009). Sustainable higher density residential development. 2nd International Urban Design Conference. Gold Coast: Urban Design Australia. Humphris, A., & Mew, G. (2009). Ring around the city: Wellington's new suburbs 19001930. Wellington: Steele Roberts Publishing. Kernohan, D., McHaffie, M., & Gard'ner, J. (1994). Wellington's old buildings. Wellington: Victoria University Press.



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Learning Today: Sustaining Tomorrow. Authentic collaboration between the education and business communities can produce a deeper understanding of sustainability.

Quinlivan

Lead Author:

Quinlivan, Mr. Paul

Other Author:

Quinlivan, Mrs. Shelley

Company affiliations:

Sinclair Knight Merz (SKM); Epsom Normal Primary School

Address:

PO Box 9806, Auckland 1149, New Zealand

Telephone:

+64 9 928 5500

Email:

[email protected]

Title:


Intended Category:

Embedding Sustainability

4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering & Science Auckland, New Zealand, 30 November – 03 December 2010




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Summary “Can authentic collaboration between the education and business communities produce a deeper understanding of sustainability?” The answer to this driving question is yes. Most teachers understand the concept of environmental sustainability, but need a deeper understanding of social sustainability and economic sustainability in order to arrive at a holistic understanding of sustainability. The three elements of a holistic view of sustainability feature strongly in the New Zealand Curriculum, revised in 2007 for full implementation in 2010. Through the lens of qualitative phenomenological research, this paper describes and analyses how a collaborative project started in 2008 involving a school, an educational consultant and a global professional consulting business created a multi-level, cross-curricular, inquiry-based, integrated teaching and learning resource on sustainability aligned to the New Zealand Curriculum. It describes how the resource framed in this manner filled a void and how it produced a positive outcome for all the organisations involved.

Research approach used and questions asked in this paper This paper describes and analyses, through the lens of qualitative phenomenological research, a Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) (Wikipedia, 2010a) activity related to the holistic concept of sustainability undertaken collaboratively by a global professional business, a school and an educational consultant. As noted by CARP (2010) “phenomenologists tend to justify cognition (and some also evaluation and action) with reference to what Edmund Husserl (1929) called Evidenz, which is awareness of a matter itself as disclosed in the most clear, distinct, and adequate way for something of its kind”. Since the “goal of qualitative phenomenological research is to describe a “lived experience” of a phenomenon” (Waters, 2010), the qualitative phenomenological approach is the appropriate research method to be used in this particular context. The driving question being addressed is: “Can authentic collaboration between the education and business communities produce a deeper understanding of sustainability?” Subsidiary questions are: “Would a professionally sound teaching and learning resource on sustainability be valued by teachers?” (driven by the sub-question “Do many teachers not understand the holistic concept of sustainability?”) and “Would the approach taken to produce a professionally sound teaching and learning resource on sustainability provide authentic professional development opportunities for those involved in its production?”

Introduction and Background The New Zealand Curriculum A holistic view of sustainability is a strong thread in the New Zealand National Curriculum for English-medium teaching and learning in years 1–13, revised in 2007. An outline of the structure is given in Figure 1 which is copied from the new curriculum. It is designed to ensure that all young New Zealanders are equipped with the knowledge, competencies, and values they will need to be successful citizens in the 21st century. Their learning is intended to contribute to the realisation of a vision of young people who will be confident, connected, actively involved, lifelong learners. A key element is a future-focus on sustainability: a holistic exploration of the long-term impact of social, cultural, scientific, technological, economic, or political practices on society and the environment. “An understanding of the practices of sustainability is necessary for students if they are to become globally responsible citizens. Education about sustainability is internationally recognised as a prerequisite for economically and environmentally literate students” (MOE, 2007). 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering & Science Auckland, New Zealand, 30 November – 03 December 2010




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Figure 1: The Structure of the New Zealand Curriculum (MOE, ibid.)

Figure 2: Teaching as Enquiry (MOE, ibid.) 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering & Science Auckland, New Zealand, 30 November – 03 December 2010




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The curriculum has, as its vision, a society in which young people will seize the opportunities offered by new knowledge and technologies to secure a sustainable social, cultural, economic, and environmental future for New Zealand. Teaching is an iterative and reflective process as illustrated by Figure 2 which is copied from the new curriculum. Schools are required to revise their school-specific curricula so that, by 2010, they incorporate the principles of the revised New Zealand Curriculum. It is up to schools how they integrate the national curriculum into their own school’s curriculum documents and procedures to meet these requirements.

Identification of a gap in understanding around sustainability Many teachers and schools struggle with the concept of sustainability and do not have the resources to address this in an adequate or timely manner. The reason is that “... one of the major drawbacks to implementing sustainability is a general lack of understanding of what the term means in practice” (MfE, 2002). In early 2008 the authors searched for, but could not find a teaching resource for primary schools which addressed the holistic concept of sustainability (the intersection of environmental, social and economic sustainability where actions or activities are bearable across all three concepts (refer to Figure 4). There were many “education for sustainability” resources but they invariably addressed only environmental sustainability in any significant depth. The authors recognised that, if this was indeed correct then there was an opportunity for the business community to assist schools as they grapple with the task of weaving sustainability into their curricula. For many businesses the notion of sustainability is critical to business development and socially responsible businesses have a well developed understanding of this notion which they weave into their daily practice. The authors hypothesised that for this assistance to be valued it should take the form of a teaching and learning resource which addressed the holistic concept of sustainability. It was also assumed that it should be designed collaboratively for teachers by teachers in order to have credibility in the public education arena. It was noted that (in New Zealand) there existed a number of initiatives from other companies or organisations to develop resources for schools. These included initiatives such as “Enviroschools” (Enviroschools Foundation, 2010), “Newspapers In Education” (APN, 2010), “A Word on Waste” (ARC, 2010) or “Schoolgen” (Genesis Energy, 2010) but there did not appear to be any that focussed specifically on the holistic concept of sustainability. The authors hypothesised that business, under the umbrella of CSR (Wikipedia, ibid.), might be willing to get involved in developing for primary schools a teaching and learning resource on sustainability that would be made freely available to everyone.

What type of support was proposed? Their thinking was to design a resource around the New Zealand National Curriculum and anchor it upon best practice in delivering positive learning outcomes. It was believed that for such a resource to be useful for teachers it needed to involve people who had: (1) an understanding of best practice; (2) an understanding of the curriculum, and; (3) knowledge of how to build a teaching resource that would promote effective learning outcomes for students.





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They therefore proposed that support be given for the creation and implementation of an Integrated Inquiry Model Teaching Resource based on the National Curriculum, covering Levels 1, 2 and 3 (primary ages 5-10). The aim being to “grow” the capacity of students and teachers who might understand, embrace and accept their responsibilities as global citizens. The resource was to address sustainability across the strands of Maths, English, Science, Social Studies and Technology. As noted previously, initial research carried out by the authors indicated that such resources did not appear to be freely available online. It was recognised that the resource should be produced by teachers from a primary school, guided by an educational planning consultant and working collaboratively with employees of the sponsoring business. It was decided that the school should be Auckland-based since this is where the sponsoring business’s New Zealand’s headquarters are located. It was envisaged that the basic structure of the Integrated Inquiry Model Teaching Resource would encompass: 1. 2. 3.

4. 5.

An Integrated Unit Plan Overview (a framework incorporating pedagogy based on best practice and research) Investigative, hands-on activities planned and documented to support achievement of the Learning Intentions Supporting materials such as: a. matrices b. diagrams c. recording sheets d. suitable reading materials e. links to suitable sites f. a list of available published resources (maps/graphs/books/journals etc), and g. visual maps and self-assessment rubrics (such as those employed in the Differentiated Curriculum Model developed by Hooked On Thinking, and which are coded against the SOLO taxonomy (HOT, 2010)). Assessment tasks that form an integral part of the resource. Once the integrated resource had been developed and trialled successfully and modified as appropriate it was intended to make it freely available to other learning institutions.

Method Selection of Participants The business decided that it should select a school to work with in an open and transparent manner, and also involve a school that had a connection to the business in some way. It did this by first advising employees what it intended to do and then asking them to nominate schools. This resulted in a list of fourteen schools. It then selected a Project Manager from its employees (this was an enthusiastic young female engineer) and an implementation team based on employee responses to a request for participation. Four schools were short-listed by ranking them according to several criteria including their:

Link with the business A demographic profile reflecting that of Auckland as a city Link to a centre of teacher training and pedagogical research in order to tap into the centre’s resources and personnel if need be and to impact on future generations of teachers through participation in the trial by virtue of being on practicum at the school during the trial period





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Distance from the business office, and Positivity and professionalism.

It could be argued that the first and fourth of these criteria are arbitrary and for the convenience of the business, and therefore invalidate the research that this paper is based on. We argue that they do not, because the main intent of the CSR activity was to produce a quality teaching and learning resource that was rigorous and defensible. For this to occur there needed to be a prolonged commitment from all the parties involved and significant involvement and interaction over an extended period of time and these two criteria supported the involvement of the business. In order that the resource created would be as useful as possible, the business felt that the school selected should preferably be one that (in addition to the preliminary ranking criteria):

Is future-focused but firmly grounded in the current needs of its learning community Has enthusiastic support from the whole school community (staff (especially senior management) and students, parents, board) Is innovative and embraces new technology, believes in collaboration, is focused on student achievement and improving the quality of its teaching staff through professional development Offers evidence-based learning Promotes an inquiry model of learning Wants to grow students who understand, embrace and accept their responsibilities as global citizens Would benefit from a targeted activity that has a sustainability focus (such as “Reducing our school’s carbon footprint”), and Is willing to appoint a senior manager to be responsible for co-ordination within the school.

As part of evaluating each school’s position in relation to the educational criteria included above, the Educational Review Office reports for each school were studied. An outline document describing the proposed initiative was prepared and it included a questionnaire which asked: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Please explain how your school serves the current needs of its learning community while maintaining a future-focus Please give examples of how your school is innovative and has embraced new technology What collaborative practices are your staff involved in? How does your school promote a focus on student achievement? How do you manage professional development in your school? In what ways is your school is representative of Auckland as a city? Please describe any working relationships that your school has with an institute of teacher training or pedagogical research How does your school differentiate for learning levels within classrooms? Does your school use any particular “model of learning”? How your school would benefit from a targeted activity that has a sustainability focus (such as “Reducing our school’s carbon footprint”) What activities has your school promoted to grow students who understand, embrace and accept their responsibilities as global citizens? 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering & Science Auckland, New Zealand, 30 November – 03 December 2010




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The questionnaire also asked for confirmation that:

Yes, our whole school community would enthusiastically support this initiative if our school was chosen. Yes, our school board chairperson would be willing to send the business a letter confirming the board’s support should our school be chosen to participate. Yes, we are willing to appoint a senior manager to be responsible for co-ordination within the school if our school was chosen to participate in this initiative.

The short-listed schools were advised that the proposed approach to developing the resource was: Having selected a school, some business staff will work collaboratively with senior administration and a selected team of teachers alongside an educational planning consultant. There will be consultation, brainstorming, deliberation and feedback and finally the framework for implementation will be agreed on. Implementation will most likely involve releasing a team of teachers to write the skeletons of the resource elements over one day and then, after review and feedback, to draft these elements in more detail over a contiguous period of several days. The resource elements would then be revised to their final versions after further feedback and review. The business will assist by covering the cost of the educational planning consultant and high-quality relievers so that the learning needs of the students of these teachers will not be compromised. Responses from the four short-listed schools were evaluated and Epsom Normal Primary School (ENPS) was chosen. The Lead Author recused himself from the short-list evaluation process so as to avoid a potential or perceived conflict of interest since his spouse was (and is) a Deputy Principal at ENPS. Through a consultative process ENPS selected a team of four staff to be involved in the process. These included a beginning teacher from the Junior School (years 1-2), an experienced teacher from the Senior School (years 5-6) who had taught at multiple levels including pre-school and an experienced teacher from the Middle School (years 3-4). The teachers were of mixed ages to represent a cross-section of the schools teaching force. In parallel with the school evaluation and selection process, Hooked On Thinking® was appointed as educational consultants. Their brief was to ensure that the end product was rigorous and defensible as a quality teaching and learning resource. The consultancy had already worked with another business sector to produce a public resource for schools and was thus experienced in this type of activity.

Description of Participating Organisations ENPS (http://www.epsomnormalprimary.school.nz/) is primary school of approximately 650 students located in the suburb of Epsom, Auckland. It is called a “Normal” school because it is an exemplar school with a close association with a tertiary education enterprise (Auckland College of Education) that trains teachers. It works closely with student teachers on teaching practicums on an ongoing basis as part of their professional development and appraisal. The school has a Decile 9 rating, indicating that most students come from a relatively high socioeconomic sector of society although it must be noted that a decile rating is not an indicator of student capacity for learning. The ethnic composition of the school is: NZ European/Pākehā 24%, Māori 2%, Chinese 31%, Indian 20%, Korean 4%, Sri Lankan 4%, Pacific 3%, Japanese 2%, other ethnicities 10% (ERO, 2010). Hooked On Thinking® (http://hooked-on-thinking.com/) works with schools, businesses and learning communities to transform student learning outcomes. The owners of Hooked On 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering & Science Auckland, New Zealand, 30 November – 03 December 2010




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Thinking have extensive experience in education, directing Ministry of Education contracts and independent contracts across New Zealand. The focus of their work is on ensuring students achieve deep learning outcomes and “learn how to learn”. Hooked on Thinking uses the Structure of the Observed Learning Outcome (SOLO) Taxonomy (Biggs and Collis, 1982), as a model of learning (http://www.johnbiggs.com.au/solo_taxonomy.html) (HOT, ibid.). The sponsoring business is Sinclair Knight Merz (SKM). SKM is an engineering, sciences and project delivery firm. Its stated purpose is to deliver a positive and enduring impact on the world. SKM (http://www.skmconsulting.com/) has offices across Australia, New Zealand, Europe, the Middle East, South America and Asia.

Resource Produced Through a series of collaborative one-day working sessions a draft resource was produced. These sessions started with employees of the business presenting on various aspects of sustainability to the other two participant groups in order for them to first develop their own understandings of sustainability in a holistic way. The resource design employed an integrated planning model developed by Hooked On Thinking. It is a “backwards design” where the starting point is “where do we want the students to be in the future”. It is initially teacher directed inquiry learning, followed by student led inquiry. The working group selected ‘big ideas’ that they thought were important to an understanding of sustainability. ‘Big ideas’ are ideas that will ‘stick’ with the learners for many years into the future. From these big ideas, ‘driving questions’ are developed and using the curriculum framework, ‘key competencies’ and ‘achievement objectives’ are chosen (HOT, ibid.). These provide the key ideas and processes to help build coherent understanding of the concept and context. Learning intentions were then developed and, through the use of SOLO Taxonomy (Biggs and Collis, ibid.), learning experiences were planned to support the development of understandings of sustainability. The resource was prepared both electronically and in handwritten forms, word-smithed by Hooked On Thinking, and finally formatted by SKM. The resource in its draft form was loaded onto the internet website of SKM in August 2009 (and thereby made freely available to anyone on the worldwide web). It is structured in the following way: A 2 minute lesson in sustainability + 3examples of sustainability thinking and design + a sustainability mind map Learning Framework Overview Contexts to explore Learning areas framework Individual Curriculum Learning Area Sustainability Resources Figure 3. The front page of 1) English 2) Health and Physical Education – Community Resources the resource (SKM, 2009).





3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 11) 12) 13) 14) 15) 16)

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Health and Physical Education – Rights, Responsibilities, Laws and People Health and Physical Education – Safety Management Learning Languages Mathematics and Statistics – Geometry and Measurement Mathematics and Statistics – Statistics Science – Living World Ecology Science – Living World, Life Processes Science – Material World Chemistry and Society Science – Physical World, Physical Enquiry and Physics Concept Science – Planet Earth and Beyond, Earth Systems Science – Planet Earth and Beyond, Interacting Systems Social Sciences Technology Arts Resource

Additional Resources Key Competencies Resource What If Questions Thinking Strategies Resource ICT Resources

Collaboration at the business office

Business employees sharing knowledge on sustainability with teachers

Results The driving question As noted previously, the driving question is: “Can authentic collaboration between the education and business communities produce a deeper understanding of sustainability?” Observations by the participants related to this question include:





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From Hooked On Thinking “The Learning Today: Sustaining Tomorrow resource is unique in regards to the process from the inception to the completion of the project and this in itself is a gift to the students and teachers of New Zealand. The commitment from the business sponsor in allowing this to be a triangulation between engineers expert in their fields, teachers as practitioners and consultants in curriculum design has resulted in an end product that is rigorous in its integrity and ensured that several units of work across a range of curriculum areas have been scaffolded to support and challenge student learning outcomes. This resource has been designed to also support teachers in implementing the recently introduced New Zealand Curriculum through the many lenses of sustainability that were shared by the team from the business sponsor. Too often when schools are looking at teaching sustainability they tend to focus only on the environmental aspect but through this resource they are able to also connect into social and financial issues that are all part of understanding sustainability. When the engineers and planners shared their insights with the teachers they were able to share with them the many facets that underpin the concept thus allowing students to have a much wider focus. Through the generosity of the business sponsor we were also asked to present the resource to the trial school and by providing professional development on the resource to the teachers it gave them the key understandings and support to teach sustainability at another level. The planning framework is faithful to the NZ curriculum. The eight principles of high expectations, Treaty of Waitangi, cultural diversity, inclusion, learning to learn, community engagement, coherence and future focus have all been incorporated. Each school is able to add their own values and key competencies. All learning experiences build in complexity and are supported by achievement objectives, learning intentions, assessment exemplars, ICT, thinking and questioning interventions. The curriculum framework that scaffolds this resource supports teachers in Directed Inquiry and also allows each school to select what sustainability issues are for their local community and explore them in depth. This freedom allows schools to address local issues and needs which in itself is very powerful and the idea of students discovering and becoming knowledge makers in issues pertaining to sustainability is a powerful idea. We were recently working in Rotorua when a deputy principal approached us and said that Learning Today: Sustaining Tomorrow was the best teaching resource she had seen. She said the whole staff had embraced the idea and had committed themselves to teaching Learning Today: Sustaining Tomorrow as a one year programme. The principal commented that the resource was very explicit and that her staff had liked the clarity in regards to defining sustainability” ((Mills, 2010), refer also to School 1 comment following). From ENPS “Participation by ENPS in the educational initiative Learning Today: Sustaining Tomorrow has been an extremely positive experience that has had both ‘hoped for’ and unexpected results. We hoped for and planned for building our learners understanding of the notion that their choices had consequences and that we are all guardians of our environment, our culture and our economic prosperity. This intention was achieved exceptionally well and in fact has extended far beyond the classroom to reach our wider community in a variety of ways. Sustainability has now been embedded in our teaching practice, planned for in all teaching unit plans, has become a strategic priority in all we do, with a management unit allocated to two teachers to lead other sustainability initiatives in our school. In other words,





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sustainability has become an integral part of our school culture. For example, our new school logo and new signage includes the words, “Guardians of the past, present and future’. Our participation has offered learning experiences and leadership opportunities for teachers, developed a deeper understanding of the New Zealand curriculum, enhanced our schools reputation, changed teacher and student behaviour and has improved our school environment. We have had opportunities to collaborate within our own school and to share our learning with the wider community through both formal and informal opportunities. This has included presentations to other community groups focused on sustainable interests, presentations to other schools, the delivery of professional development opportunities for several groups of principals and deputy principals and leading a workshop about the experience and the resource at a education conference” (Quinlivan, 2010).

Subsidiary Questions Subsidiary Question 1 “Would a professionally sound teaching and learning resource on sustainability be valued by teachers?” Rather than let the participants answer this question, here are some comments from other schools and individuals who learned about the resource independently. School 1: “The teachers in our 16 classrooms have been working with the concept of sustainability all year. I will ask them for some specific feedback and get back to you. What I can tell you at present is the resource has been fantastic and the teachers have made extensive use of it. One of the best things for us is that the planning integrated SOLO. It has been very useful particularly as we are new to using SOLO I know the teachers found the brainstorm and definitions sections of the resource really helpful, and the resource helped scaffold our teachers with a new way of planning as using a concept curriculum was new to our staff last year” (Cato, 2010) School 2: “As EfS lead teacher at Edendale Primary School I am charged with developing a curriculum for sustainability. Thus I was overwhelmed with joy to find that someone had already done it!” (Coleman, 2009) School 3: A Kura Kaupapa – Wharekura school (where all subjects are taught in Maori except for English) located in the Waikato region (central North Island, NZ) wants to use the resource for a full year in the near future and has approached Hooked On Thinking for Professional Development of its teachers related to this use (Mills, ibid.). Individual 1: “I have just left my position as the Education for Sustainability adviser to schools with the University of Canterbury and I set up Enviroschools in the top of the South Island, so I find the resource very interesting. My broad feedback would be:

this resource is very strong on inquiry, especially sequencing thinking/analytical skills this is excellent in that it is strongly aligned to the new curriculum.” (Waddell, 2010) 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering & Science Auckland, New Zealand, 30 November – 03 December 2010




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Subquestion to Subsidiary Question 1 “Do many teachers not understand the holistic concept of sustainability?” Five presentations describing the resource and the experiences gained in its use have been made over the past 18 months (to October 2010): a group of principals in Auckland; a group of deputy/assistant principals in Auckland; a group of senior staff from a school cluster several hours drive from Auckland seeking professional development on this topic; attendees at an ICT conference in Christchurch in 2009 (ULearn 09), and; attendees at an educational leadership conference in Sydney in 2010 (ACEL 2010). At each of these presentations attendees were asked to write down their definition of sustainability. They were then given a presentation about the holistic concept of sustainability and then asked to put a dot on a Venn diagram (refer Figure 4), located where they felt their original definition sat best. Very few attendees in any of the presentations placed their dots outside that part of the diagram which was not 100% environmental.

Figure 4: Sustainability (Wikipedia, 2010b) Subsidiary Question 2 “Would the approach taken to produce a professionally sound teaching and learning resource on sustainability provide authentic professional development opportunities for those involved in its production?” Examples of professional development opportunities that have resulted from this process include: 9 For the school teachers: All the teachers now have a much wider understanding of sustainability. The teacher from the Junior School has recently used sections of the resource to model the use of SOLO in a presentation to student teachers at the Auckland College of Education. The co-author of this paper has had the opportunity to present it to many of her peers via the presentations described previously. 9 For the educational consultant: They now have a much wider understanding of how business can address issues of sustainability. They were pleased to have been involved in what they describe as “a sincere and collaborative, bottom-up (rather than top-down) initiative.”





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9 For the business sponsor: Staff involved in the resource have been co-presenters at several of the presentations mentioned above. This in itself has required them to hone their understanding of sustainability and their presentation skills.

Unexpected Results A number of unexpected things have occurred. Several of these are described below. From a community organisation: A young student at ENPS (a 9 year old girl) was self-motivated to take an active part and persuade her family to attend an inner city stream planting. She learnt of the activity through a mail drop at her house. The organisers of the event (‘The Friends of the Whau’ (pronounced “foe”)) were surprised to see the family group and they enquired as to why they had come to the planting. The young girl told them that she had been learning about sustainability at school and she knew that it wasn’t enough for her just to be sustainable at school and at home, but that she and her family needed to practice sustainable living in their community. This lead the “Friends of the Whau” back to ENPS and essentially back to the resource. The organisers were so impressed by the actions of the young girl and her knowledge of sustainability that they presented her with a certificate at a school assembly. From the Auckland Regional Transport Authority (ARTA): ‘On behalf of ARTA’s TravelWise School Travel Planners can I once again thank you for your presentation to the team. It was very valuable to get an insight into the process of developing the unit and in particular to hear what is required to make this successful in schools. Your talk certainly inspired the team and we are eager to ensure our work becomes “part of the day to day learning and not just an add on”. One team member remarked just after you left, “That was the most valuable thing I’ve heard since I’ve been here” – and they were the most senior planner’ (Vincent, 2009). From ENPS: The key concept understanding in the resource is “Our choices have consequences” and the driving question is “Am I a guardian (Me he mea ko hau te kaitiaki?)”. This is reflected in the modernising of the school logo from that on the left prior to the initiative to that on the right. The tree represents the growing of learning at ENPS and also reflects the school’s commitment to sustaining learning as guardianship in its most holistic sense. Because culture is an important element of social sustainability both are in current use, but new signage follows that on the right, emphasizing that ENPS stakeholders are enthusiastic “Guardians of the past, present & future”. 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering & Science Auckland, New Zealand, 30 November – 03 December 2010




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Lessons Learned and Incorporation of Feedback It was confirmed that teachers need to have ownership of their daily work. The resource produced through this initiative was welcomed by teachers as a tool to help them prepare detailed lesson plans. As expected, the resource was used differently across the school with some teams using sections of the resource as written, especially the initial lessons on defining sustainability. As teachers got further into the resource they tended to focus on particular issues and themes and needed more detailed plans. The 16 resources expressly developed provide templates for them to explore similar but slightly different ideas and themes, personalising these to their own class interests and to meet the needs of students in the school community. Other feedback included incorporating a section on Frequently Asked Questions, expanding the section on Teacher Directed Inquiry, and some “mind candy” on how the resource impacted a variety of stakeholders.

Benefits Expected and Benefits Achieved To Society The long term expectation is that our children will behave responsibly. That they will care for our planet now so that the world’s grandchildren can live comfortably in the future – a concept our children will be able to grasp, even at a junior level. Although it is too early to evaluate the long term impact of the resource, there is evidence that many of the children at ENPS now have an understanding of the concept of sustainability which is appropriate to their level of educational development. To the business Expectation: In their everyday working lives the business employees embrace sustainability, both consciously and unconsciously. Activities and deliverables associated with the initiative will provide opportunities for its employees and spread brand awareness of the business. Relationships with the wider community are a likely occurrence. Outcome: Significant opportunities for professional development have occurred and continue to occur. The resource has excited the business employees and there are moves to replicate it outside New Zealand. In particular, Australia is planning to launch a National Curriculum in the near future. Sustainable living is a cross-curriculum perspective in the Australian Curriculum Design Document (ACARA, 2009). Discussions are underway to explore whether a similar resource would be useful in the Australian context. To the School and its Teachers Teachers are busy but committed people. Because schools don’t have unlimited funds, curriculum development must be undertaken in-house or schools must fund the release of their teachers to achieve this. Much of this work is usually done after the school day when teachers are tired from a full day of teaching. Assistance in curriculum and resource development with associated targeted activities related to sustainability will be valued. Teacher involvement in the initiative will provide them with an understanding of the concept of sustainability, a professional development opportunity and marketable experiences. Other anticipated benefits were expected to include:





Quinlivan

Did this occur?

An authentic learning experience for students A professional development opportunity for teachers in working with a resource planning consultant A positive contribution from the activities implemented A resource developed for the school’s use in a defined period at a low cost to the school

9 9 9 9

An opportunity for the school to professionally co-publish a resource to share with the wider community, and

9

An opportunity to raise the profile of the school in the eyes of the public.

9

Discussion The Perspective from the Hooked On Thinking viewpoint Initially the educational consultant was concerned that their professional image might be compromised by its involvement in an initiative of this nature if it was improperly conceived, developed without authentic collaboration and approached from a top-down “here it is, isn’t it great, please use (cameras flash, photo opportunity), goodbye”. After some initial discussions they accepted that there was positive intent on the part of the business sponsor and they then whole-heartedly supported the process.

The Business Viewpoint The business recognised the opportunity to contribute positively to the development of its own employees and to society through its support of this initiative. It has presented an opportunity for the company to clarify its own understanding of sustainability. The resource has been trialled for one year. Recently (mid-2010) a lessons learned review was carried out with ENPS and Hooked On Thinking and the resource has been updated to reflect these lessons. A formal launch is now being considered in order to bring it to the attention of a wider audience. The initiative has been successful beyond the expectations of the business. The experience has resonated around the organisation with staff in several geographies around the globe interested in developing similar resources tailored to the educational needs of their respective countries. This includes the United Kingdom, Australia and South America. The hope of the business is that the resource will “go viral”. Viewed through the lens of economic sustainability, this CSR funded initiative puts the name of the sponsor in places where it might not otherwise have been known, which may eventually lead to unforeseen business opportunities. Image and opportunity go hand in hand.





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Conclusions From its inception in early 2008, through its release as a draft in mid 2009 to the final version released in mid 2010, the initiative and its accompanying resource has been a truly collaborative effort between the educational community and the business community. It was hoped that it would be a solidly grounded resource that would help lay the foundations for a generation of learners who would “seize the opportunities offered by new knowledge and technologies to secure a sustainable social, cultural, economic, and environmental future for New Zealand” and for our world. The participants believe it remains faithful to that goal and they hope it will “go forth and multiply”. Returning to the original research questions: 1) Can authentic collaboration between the education and business communities produce a deeper understanding of sustainability? First of all, was this collaboration authentic? In the opinion of the participants – this is a yes. Does it produce a deeper understanding of sustainability for many teachers? – another emphatic yes. A deeper understanding by comparison with what? – undoubtedly the current level of most educators. 2) Would a professionally sound teaching and learning resource on sustainability be valued by teachers? The feedback thus far would indicate yes. 3) Do many teachers not understand the holistic concept of sustainability? Without a doubt. 4) Would the approach taken to produce a professionally sound teaching and learning resource on sustainability provide authentic professional development opportunities for those involved in its production? Is the resource “a professionally sound teaching and learning resource” – the feedback thus far is an unsurprising yes, given the approach taken to design and implement the resource. Did “professional development opportunities occur” – yes and they continue to occur.

References Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority (ACARA) (2009). Curriculum Design. Retrieved from http://www.acara.edu.au/verve/_resources/Curriculum_Design_Paper_.pdf on 01 Oct 2010. APN News and Media (2010). Newspapers In Education. Retrieved from http://www.nieonline.co.nz/ on 06 Oct 2010. Auckland Regional Council (ARC) (2010). A Word on Waste. Retrieved from http://www.arc.govt.nz/albany/fms/main/Documents/Council/Education/AWOW/AWOW %20Introduction.pdf on 06 Oct 2010. Biggs, J. and Collis, K. (1982). Evaluating the Quality of Learning - the SOLO Taxonomy. New York: Academic Press. Centre for Advanced Research in Phenomenology (CARP) (2010). What is Phenomenology? Retrieved from http://www.phenomenologycenter.org/ on 06 Oct 2010. Cato, A. (2010). Personal communication. Coleman, B. (2009). Personal communication. Education Review Office (ERO, 2010). Epsom Normal School 19/08/2010. Retrieved from http://www.ero.govt.nz/Early-Childhood-School-Reports/School-Reports/Epsom-NormalSchool-19-08-2010/About-The-School on 05 Oct 2010.





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Enviroschools Foundation, The. (2010). Enviroschools. Retrieved from http://www.enviroschools.org.nz/ on 06 Oct 2010. Genesis Energy (2010). Schoolgen. Retrieved from http://www.schoolgen.co.nz/ on 06 Oct 2010. Hooked On Thinking (HOT) (2010). The Differentiated Curriculum Model. Retrieved from http://hooked-on-thinking.com/wiki/doku.php on 08 Oct 2010. Mills, J. (2010). Personal communication. Ministry of Education (MOE) (2007). The New Zealand Curriculum. Retrieved from http://nzcurriculum.tki.org.nz/Curriculum-documents/The-New-Zealand-Curriculum on 06 July 2010. Ministry for the Environment (MfE) (2002). Creating Our Future. Sustainable Development for New Zealand. Retrieved from http://www.pce.parliament.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/ 1332/Creating_our_future.pdf on 06 July 2010. Quinlivan, S. (2010). Personal communication. Sinclair Knight Merz (SKM, 2009). Learning Today: Sustaining Tomorrow. Draft as at October 2010. Retrieved from http://www.globalskm.com/About-Sinclair-KnightMerz/SKM-and-Sustainability/Learning-Today---Sustaining-Tomorrow-TeachingResource.aspx on 06 July 2010. Vincent, S. (2009). Personal communication. Waddell, R. (2010). Personal communication. Waters, J. (2010). Phenomenological Research. Retrieved from http://www.capilanou.ca/programs/psychology/students/research/phenom.html on 05 Oct 2010. Wikipedia (2010a). Corporate social responsibility. Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_social_responsibility on 08 Oct 2010. Wikipedia (2010b). File attributed to Johann Dréo. Retrieved from http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sustainable_development.svg on 05 Oct 2010.




Reay, Dr. Stephen D., Withell, Andrew, Diegel, Professor Olaf. Product & Design, Auckland University of Technology, 34 St Paul St, Auckland 1011, New Zealand. Tel: (09) 921 9999 ext. 6719. Email [email protected]

Title: Design for Biodiversity: a new approach for ecologically sustainable product design? Theme: Embedding Sustainability Abstract McDonough and Braungart proposed the “Cradle to Cradle” design framework to provide solutions to the world’s current ecological crisis. This approach, based on examples from nature, ensures that human activities can have a positive ecological footprint, capable of replenishing and regenerating natural systems, as well guaranteeing that we are able to develop a world that is culturally and ecologically diverse. In their framework they describe the notion of biological nutrients, where industrial waste (non toxic & biodegradable) may be used as a beneficial nutrient for ecological systems, eliminating the need for efficiency, as “waste is good”. Consequently, Cradle to Cradle industrial systems will benefit the environment. A group of New Zealand scientists were asked to evaluate ‘Cradle to Cradle’ in an attempt to determine the potential of this approach for the sustainable design of products. Analysis of interview data indicated that sustainability is a complex and multifaceted concept, especially with regard to practical applications. In particular, understanding the input of biological nutrients into the environment was identified as being critically important. Furthermore, science can play an important in understanding the impacts of products, as well as how biological nutrient’s may be best used in environmental systems. The insights gathered from these interviews were used to explore the potential for an alternative sustainable design approach, which builds upon McDonough and Braungart’s concept of a biological nutrient, and aims to support the design of products that have a strong ecological foundation. Consequently, Design for Biodiversity is outlined as a potential approach for designing environmentally sustainable products. During the development of this approach, the relationship between science and design was explored to support the notion that ecosystems are the basis of human consumption and should be incorporated as an integral part of society to ensure the development of strong sustainability. The intent of this approach is to help to design ecologically beneficial products. It is relatively untested, and should be evaluated and revised during future design projects. Introduction Sustainable development is defined as “meeting the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (WCED1987, p47). Few scientific, social and political areas have not been examined in the context of sustainability. Consequently the activities and definition of sustainable development is in constant evolution (García-Serna et al. 2007). Historically, advancing ecological sustainability required a trade off against economic profitability. However, a triple bottom line approach has become more prevalent. This approach recognises that a long-term solution requires balancing social equity, economic health and the environment (Elkington 1997).



However, the triple bottom line approach has been criticised for being more divisive than unifying. Furthermore, the division between society, environment and economy is artificial (García-Serna et al. 2007). The loss of biodiversity, arguably the dominant contributor to environmental sustainability, is considered one of the greatest threats to the continued survival of humans on earth (Wood 2000). The destruction of biodiversity and associated failure of ecological systems resulting from human activities is a main factor contributing to the collapse of many societies throughout history (Diamond 2005). In addition, our reliance on ecosystems, and the likely failure of these ecosystems to further adapt to human impacts, will have serious implications on the health and wellbeing of future populations (Walter-Toews 2004). Sustainable Product Design Design practitioners, through their roles in shaping the future, are viewed as being able to promote change in society, especially around unsustainable behaviours (Sosa & Gero 2008). In “Design for society”, Whiteley (1993) argues that designers have a moral and ethical obligation to be responsible for their designs, and the social and environmental impacts of their work. Whitely (1993) follows the writings of others (i.e. Papanek 1971) to reveal a lack of values and ambition, in the marriage between design and consumerism. Consumer-led design is so prevalent that it appears as a “natural and inevitable aspect of our society” (Whiteley 1993:7). For design to change, the role and values of design, as well as the relationship of design with society needs to change. This may come from a reflection as to whether design is merely a servant of industry, or can inform through intelligent thought and action, while contributing to the global ecological balance (Whiteley 1993). The design community has responded to the growing issues around social and environmental issues by developing concepts and frameworks to guide eco-design and sustainable design activities (Sherwin 2004). These concepts are centred on ideals of acknowledging ecological limits and demonstrating responsibility, and increased contribution to society and the environment (Sherwin 2004). Eco-design approaches aim to minimise environmental impacts (Tischner & Charter 2001). Motivation for these approaches is usually justified by the economic gains associated with financial savings associated with greater “efficiencies”. Strategies reflect product development processes that consider the environment at each design and manufacturing stage to reduce or minimise environmental impacts throughout the product’s life (Glavič & Lukman 2007). While atempts are often made to lower environmental impact materials during production, a product’s environmental impact may not be considered after it has been sold (Ljungberg 2007). Many methods are non-generic and require customisation prior to use to be compatible with current product development processes. Furthermore they are often not based on rigorous design and engineering principles (Knight & Jenkins 2009). Sustainable (product) design encompasses and goes beyond the principles of eco-design incorporating greater innovation, ethics and the socio-economic dimensions of sustainability. Sustainable design frameworks have been described as utilising ecological principles as methods of design, yet this is in conflict with the aim of designing for ‘triple bottom line’ solutions, as described by Tischner and Charter (2001) and Sherwin (2004), exponents of sustainable design frameworks. Few actual product examples of exist, and these are often experimental (Zafarmand et al. 2003, Sherwin 2004).



The feasibility of the Cradle to Cradle design framework Cradle to Cradle (C2C) design is a design framework (and paradigm) for designing products inspired by looking to natural systems (McDonough & Braungart 2002, Braungart et al. 2007). In contrast to using “eco-efficiency” as a driver for producing environmentally benign products, Braungart et al. (2007, p1338) suggest their “eco-effective” approach “proposes the transformation of products and their associated material flows such that they form a supportive relationship with ecological systems and future economic growth”. They claim this generates a synergy between economic and ecological systems. Eco-effectiveness starts with a vision that industry is 100% good. The concept of waste does not exist, as all outputs from one process become inputs for other processes. Therefore eco-effectiveness supports and regenerates ecological systems and enables long-term prosperity, and is the basis for “triple top line” objectives (Braungart et al. 2007). Simply, eco-effective design results in products that are absorbed into the environment, so that industrial systems wastes may become nutrients for ecological systems (or biological nutrients). Technical nutrients are described as synthetic or mineral materials that safely remain in a closed loop system of manufacture, recovery and reuse to maintain their material value through many cycles. McDonough and Braungart (2002) suggest using their approach may result in the replenishment and regeneration of natural systems, as well guaranteeing that we are able to develop a world that is culturally and ecologically diverse. The C2C approach for the design of products was recently explored from an ecological perspective in an attempt to determine the potential of this approach for the design of products. This particular framework was specifically selected as it is relatively well known and has received favourable attention from the design community. Furthermore, literature searches indicate that it has received little attention from the scientific community. Finally, the authors suggest their approach can ensure that human activities have a positive ecological footprint (McDonough and Braungart 2002). Reay (2009) undertook a series of semi-structured key informant interviews of senior New Zealand scientists. The scientists were selected using a non-probability purposive sampling technique, and were employed in a senior science position in either a Crown Research Institute or New Zealand University. The group was selected as having a broad understanding of the biological processes that underpin sustainability, or the development of materials and processes that may be required for the development of sustainable systems, and were from a range of scientific disciplines (e.g. biologist, materials scientists, chemical & process scientist, biotechnologist etc.). Participants were given a copy of Braungart et al (2007)’s C2C article prior to being interviewed. The interviews were analysed using a qualitative thematic analysis method whereby the textual data was read and coded to identify common and divergent viewpoints. The key perspectives or themes were developed into an explanatory model. A dominant theme that emerged from the interviews was the complexity associated with understanding the interactions of humans, societies and their environments. To address issues of sustainability with rigour requires an ability to explore and work within complex systems and demands (Bradbury 2002, van Roon & Knight 2004). This requires the capacity to ask questions framed in an appropriate context and the aptitude to interpret and discuss complex results. The key informant interviews illustrate that consideration of human impacts on the environment is critical, and was the most discussed factor when referring to sustainability. The participants’ considered the environment as the foundation of sustainability. Therefore



the protection of biodiversity and the natural systems in which it persists is fundamental to sustainability. In general participants’ expressed caution when approaching the concept of biological nutrients as a simple solution to sustainability problems. While participants’ generally favoured the C2C rationale, most considered it to be idealistic: a good idea in principle, but not in practice. Overall, C2C was not widely accepted as a framework that would reflect the realities of complex social and environmental ecosystems. Most participants viewed the goals of reducing human impacts to zero as a more realistic than attempting to generate positive environmental impacts. Furthermore, in order to have a positive impact we must know what that positive might be, which might not always be the case. The study concluded the concept of a biological nutrient, as identified by Braungart et al. (2007), represents an exciting opportunity for designers who can play an important role in developing sustainable futures. However, ensuring ecological sustainability requires all decision making being made within an ecological context, and recognising that humans are part of ecological systems (van Roon & Knight 2004). Therefore the functional capabilities of ecosystems need to be central to decision making processes.

Design for Biodiversity The key findings from Reay (2009) were used to propose a new design approach that places biodiversity central to the design decision-making process. This design approach is intended to be used as a concept ideation tool, and to support subsequent design process. The approached builds on Braungart et al.’s (2007) concept of a biological nutrient, and encourages the designer to view biological organisms with the same importance that they view human centredness in most design activities. Design for Biodiversity is relatively untested approach, and attempts to encourage the designer to consider the ecological implications of their design process in a more rigorous way. In general, this may mean engaging with specialists who have an understanding of a particular organism or ecological system in which the product might be deployed. The Design for Biodiversity approach implies that the needs of human users are potentially less tangible than with traditional design approaches, recognising higher levels of complexity and the connection and dependence of people and ecosystems. The impacts of products/human activities are complex, dynamic and long-term, and are intimately connected throughout a products life with the environment. With this approach, a primary role of products is to support biodiversity, and to function as biological nutrients at their end of their life, while satisfying human user requirements. The Design for Biodiversity approach is the result of applying the discipline of design to current ecological issues. The approach represents a qualitative approach to design to guide decision making process to help make conscious, well informed, best-practise decisions in the early stages of the sustainable design process. Using this approach helps recognise the ecosystem as the basic unit of ecology and represents the systemic relatedness of everything to everything else (Park 2000). This approach acknowledges the importance of human impacts on ecosystems, and “the intimate, and reciprocal, relationship between human activity and the health and integrity of ecosystems” (Van Root & Knight 2004, p269), and attempts to enhance the positive nature of these relationships. This approach is in direct contrast to many current “eco-design” activities, where design is primarily focused toward human users with the intent of minimising or reducing environmental impacts.



Figure 1: Design for Biodiversity approach With the Design for Biodiversity approach (Figure 1), human needs are considered alongside environmental needs. Moggridge (2007) describes a hierarchy of complexity with respect incorporating human factors in design. Anthropometrics is positioned at the simplest level of complexity, and represents the role of basic human factors (sizes of people) in designing objects for individuals. Ecology is presented as the highest order, and is described as understanding the interdependence of living things (Moggridge 2007). Design for Biodiversity recognises that the design processes should recognise the importance of a human aesthetic in designing meaningful objects. However, it also addresses the needs of people at higher levels of complexity. Thus, this approach proposes a holistic view toward human factors and recognises opportunities due to the connectedness of ecosystems and society, and supporting the connection and dependence of people on biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and ecosystem function (Lyle 1999, Park 2000, van Roon and Knight 2004). People are highly dependent on the natural systems in which they live, and are an integral part of them. These systems are in turn highly depended on, and vulnerable to people’s actions and activities. Design for Biodiversity recognises the significance of nurturing intact, fully functional ecosystems as highly complex, dynamic and unpredictable biological systems crucial to maintaining the human condition. Consequently, design considerations (impacts and benefits) should be addressed in a complimentary manner for both “user groups”, and can be considered along a scale of complexity similar to that proposed by Moggridge (2007) (Figure 2).



Figure 2: Design for Biodiversity (hierarchy of complexity modified from Moggridge 2007). At the simplest level of complexity, needs are orientated toward specific individuals. At higher levels opportunities are considered for products to have positive impacts on wider communities. The “materials impact” component of the approach represents the impacts that the materials used in a product may have on both human users/society and individual species/ecosystems, and may reflect the possible tension between different groups. Within this sphere opportunities to enhance the environmental performance of materials should be considered. The “ecological impacts” component represents the intention to better understand the impacts (positive or negative) of a products lifecycle as part of the natural environment. It is in this sphere that the concept of a ‘structural nutrient’ may be explored for any given product. A structural nutrient represents the use of the product by an individual organisms or species group/community during the products life. A simple analogy for a structural nutrient is the creation of artificial reefs for the conservation of marine organisms (Bohnsack & Sutherland 1985). Similarly, products may be designed for use as “artificial habitats” for organisms at a point during a products life, with the goal of enhancing biodiversity benefits (particularly if threatened indigenous organisms are targeted) (Michael et al. 2004, Lettink 2007a,b, Bowie et al. 2006). This approach is complementary to and builds on the Braungart et al. (2007) concept of a biological nutrient. For example, a product may be used as a structural nutrient (i.e. habitat) after its ‘intended human use’ before being discarded to decompose and becoming a biological nutrient. Product concepts using Design for Biodiversity approach As previously mentioned, the design approach outlined above is in the initial stages of development, and is therefore relatively untested. Consequently, a small number of product concepts/examples have been developed to evaluate this approach. Three concepts/prototypes are presented below. It is anticipated that this approach will be used to develop additional products/concepts, and that these and the existing will be fully evaluated to determine the success of this approach, and to provide direction for future amendment.



1. Weta Home This New Zealand inspired toy was designed to help children reconnect with nature in urban ecosystems (Figure 3). A young child may assemble, customise and play with the toy. Following the “play” phase (end of life), the toy was designed to be placed in the garden (e.g. tied to a tree), where it could “frame nature” as habitat for invertebrate communities (including weta) showing children the potential abundance of backyard organisms, before finally decomposing and demonstrating the cycle of natural materials.

Figure 3: Weta Home 2. Lizard Trap A low-cost, lightweight, biodegradable flat-pack trap was developed to assist lizard monitoring and conservation (Figure 4). This trap was designed to provide an alternative to bulky and difficult to assemble traps currently used. The trap was designed in collaboration with a herpetologist, and knowledge of lizard habitat preferences to enhance attraction and minimise capture stress. While the prototype was manufactured from a biodegradable material, it was not intended that it be disposed of in the natural environment (where it may be used), rather that it be returned to an appropriate system (i.e. compost heap).

Figure 4: Lizard Trap 3. Tree shelter This concept represents an ecological community response for forest restoration plantings where plastic ‘tent’ shelters are sometimes used to provide protection against adverse environmental conditions. This tree shelter design (Figure 5) attempts to enhance tree survival and support the re-establishment of ecosystem function. By manipulating ecosystem architecture and targeting the promotion of ecosystem processes and components, the shelter



may accelerate the re-colonisation of biodiversity in native forest restoration plantings. In addition the standardised size may help facilitate monitoring colonisation of animals, and help provide a measure of restoration success.

Figure 5: Tree shelter Discussion The Design for Biodiversity approach was developed to help designers think beyond ecodesign principles and is orientated toward designing for strong sustainability. The abundance of biodiversity reveals the extent of co-operation between people and nature (O’Riordan & Stoll-Kleemann 2002). Biodiversity is an indicator of the health of the planet; “for humans to be at peace with themselves they need to find peace with biodiversity” (O’Riordan & StollKleemann 2002, p19). The approach helps ensure that products have an underlying ecological integrity that will benefit biodiversity and natural systems (and therefore our communities). Consequently monitoring biodiversity is a way to measure sustainable development. Design outcomes for people when using this approach may range from more simple and easily measured anthropogenic attributes right through to more complex and less tangible community benefits (ecology). Ecosystems are the basis of human consumption and therefore should be incorporated as the foundation of society, ensuring strong environmental, social and economic sustainability. This approach prescribes that sustainable product design should not be undertaken in the absence of ecological understanding. Designers have been charged with envisioning the future. Therefore a working knowledge of ecology is necessary to engage with rigor around issues of sustainability. A specialised designer with new modes of design process thinking is required to help negotiate these challenges, and actively engage with communities and the environment. While this approach has not been thoroughly tested, it is intended that it be applied in real world situations and demands greater collaboration between designers and scientists (biologists, ecologists etc). The consequence of such collaboration should see



designers having greater levels of ecological literacy, and a better understanding by scientists of the power of design to look to envisage the future scenarios. References Bohnsack, J.A. & Sutherland, D.L. 1985. Artificial reef research: A review with recommendations for future priorities. Bulletin of Marine Science 37: 11-39 Bowie, M.H., Hodge, S., Banks, J.C. and Vink, C.J. 2006. An appraisal of simple treemounted shelters for non-lethal monitoring of weta (Orthoptera; Anostostomatidae and Rhaphidophoridae) in New Zealand nature reserves. Journal of Insect Conservation 10: 261268. Bradbury, R. 2002. Futures, predictions and other foolishness. Pp 48-62 in M.A. Jansen (ed) Complexity and ecosystem management: the theory and practise of multi-agent systems. International Scoiety for Ecological Economics. Meeting (2000: Canberra, A.C.T.). England: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited. Braungart, M, McDonough, W and Bollinger, A. 2007. Cradle-to-cradle design: creating healthy emission- a strategy for eco-effective product and system design. Journal of Cleaner Production 15:1337-1348. Diamond, J. 2005. Collapse: how societies choose to fail or survive. London, England: Penguin Books. Elkington, J. 1997. Canibals with forks: the triple bottom line of 21st century business. Gabriola Island, Canada: New Society Publishers. García-Serna, G, Pérez-Barrigón, L and Cocero, MJ. 2007. New trends for design towards sustainability in chemical engineering: green engineering. Chemical Engineering Journal 133:7-30. Glavič, P. & Lukman, R. 2007. Review of sustainability terms and their definitions. Journal of Cleaner Production 15:1875-1885. Knight, P and Jenkins, JO. 2009. Adopting and applying eco-design techniques: a practitioners perspective. Journal of Cleaner Production 17:549-558. Lettink, M. 2007a. Comparison of two techniques for capturing geckos in Rocky habitat. Herpetological Review 2007: 415-418 Lettink, M. 2007b. Detectability, movements and apparent lack of homing in Hoplodactylus maculatus (Reptilia: Diplodactylidae) following translocation. New Zealand Journal of Ecology 31: 111-116 Ljunberg, LY. 2007. Materials selection and design for sustainable products. Materials and Design 28:466-479. Lyle, J.T. 1999. Design for human ecosystems: Landscape, land use, and natural resources. Island Press, Washington, USA. McDonough, W and Braungart, M. 2002. Cradle to cradle: remaking the way we make things. New York, USA: North Point Press. Michael, D.R., Lunt, D.I. and W. A. Robinson, W.A. 2004. Enhancing fauna habitat in grazed native grasslands and woodlands: use of artificially placed log refuges by fauna. Wildlife Research 31: 65–71. Moggridge, B. 2007. Designing interactions. The MIT Press, Cambridge, England. O’Riordan, T. and Stoll-Kleemann, S. 2002. Protecting beyond the protected. Pp 1-31 in O'Riordan, T. and Stoll-Kleemann, S. (eds) Biodiversity, sustainability, and human communities. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, UK. Papanek, V. 1971. Design for the real world: human ecology and social change. London: Thames & Hudson.



Park, G. 2000. New Zealand as ecosystems: the ecosystem concept as a tool for environmental management and conservation. Department of Conservation, New Zealand. Reay, S.D. 2009. Design for ecosystem function: three ecologically based design interventions to support New Zealand’s indigenous biodiversity. M.Phil thesis, Auckland University of Technology. Sherwin, C. 2004. Design and sustainability: a discussion paper based on personal experience and observations. The Journal of Sustainable Product Design 4:21-31. Sosa, R. and Gero, J.S. 2008. Social structures that promote change in a complex world: the complementary roles of strangers and acquaintances in innovation. Futures 40: 577-585. Tischner, U. and Charter, M. 2001. Sustainable product design. Pp 118-138 in Charter, M and Tischner, U. (eds) Sustainable solutions: developing products and services for the future. Greenleaf Publishing Limited. Sheffield, UK. Van Roon, M. and Knight, S. 2004. Ecological context of development: New Zealand perspectives. Melbourne, Australia: Oxford University Press. Walter-Toews, D. 2004. Ecosystem sustainability and health: a practical approach. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press. WCED. (Ed.). (1987). Our common future: World Commission on Environment and Development. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. Whiteley, N. 1993. Design for society. London, UK: Reaktion Books Ltd. Wood, P.M. 2000. Biodiversity and democracy: rethinking society and nature. Canada: UBC Press. Zafarmand, S.J., Sugiyama, K. and Watanabe, M. 2003. Aesthetic and sustainability: the aesthetic attributes promoting product sustainability. The Journal of Sustainable Product Design 3: 173-186



Reay, Dr. Stephen D., Withell, Andrew, Diegel, Professor Olaf. Product & Design, Auckland University of Technology, 34 St Paul St, Auckland 1011, New Zealand. Tel: (09) 921 9999 ext 6719, Email [email protected] Title: How to effectively engage students’ with environmentally sustainable product design? Category: Embedding Sustainability Abstract It has become increasingly evident that the impacts of human development and production/consumption over the last half of the twentieth century and into the twenty-first century are unsustainable in the long term. The response to this is an increased focus on identifying opportunities to support and enhance sustainability. This transition not only presents a huge challenge for product designers but also provides opportunity for designers to reframe their practices and processes. It is therefore imperative that the teaching of sustainable design is embedded deeply into the curriculum of product design programmes. Responding to the need for a focus on sustainability in higher education, many programmes have developed projects centred on design for social responsibility. Furthermore, despite the plethora of sustainable design frameworks attempting to provide solutions to the world’s ecological crisis, many designers oversimplify such systems in order to attain suitable design outcomes. These may result in superficial design responses when it comes to issues of sustainability. Due to the complex nature of ecology and ecosystems, developing student projects that go beyond “eco-design” will help them to better cope with the complexity of the relationships between the environment, society and the economy We propose that a new approach is required to engage students more deeply in environmentally sustainable product design. This approach will assist students to develop greater ecological literacy and develop new modes of design process thinking that is required to help negotiate future environmental and social challenges. In effect, the proposed approach reflects the need for collaboration between scientists (ecologists) and designers to build new capacity in this area. Introduction One of the most commonly used definitions of sustainability states “Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (WCED. 1987, p. 47). It is clear that humanity is using the planet’s resources faster than they can be renewed. Since the industrial era, humanity has witnessed advanced negative impacts on climate change, ecological degradation and pervasive poverty in developed and developing nations (Doppelt 2003). The ecological footprint of people now exceeds the world’s ability to regenerate it by about 25% (Leape 2006). Over the next few decades humanity will be progressively confronted by increasing negative environmental and social impacts of human development. This transition towards sustainability, in its everyday dimension, requires billions of people to quickly redefine their life projects (Manzini & Jegou 2006).



Sustainable design has emerged as a response to these environmental and social imperatives. Design for sustainability can be defined as a strategic design activity which aims to conceive and develop sustainable products services and solutions (Manzini 2006). The notion of a more ecologically and socially responsible approach to design is not new. In the early 1970s Papanek (1971) challenged the existing attitudes and practices of designers and outlined a design approach that emphasised social and ecological responsibility. Papanek (1971) argued that design aims must show greater social and ecological sensitivity, and consider the genuine needs of people. In 2001 industrial designers from around the world declared that industrial design will no longer regard the environment as a separate entity and industrial designers need to pursue the path of sustainable development by coordinating various aspects that influence its attainment, including politics, economy, culture, technology and environment (ICSID 2001). Sustainability and sustainable design in higher education “Higher education institutions bear a profound, moral responsibility to increase the awareness, knowledge, skills, and values needed to create a just and sustainable future’’ (Cortese 2003, p.17). Cortese (2003) also states that the change in mind-set necessary to achieve this vision is a sustained, long-term effort to transform education at all levels. A new educational agenda has been established with entirely new ways of thinking and new intellectual priorities to rescue the environment and the human prospect, such that ‘‘those now being educated will have to do what we, the present generation, have been unable or unwilling to do’’ (Ramirez 2006, p.191). In addition, Wals and Jickling (2002) argue that sustainability provides colleges and universities an opportunity to confront their core values, their practices and the way they program for student learning. “Design education for sustainability can help usher a promising future by transforming the designers of tomorrow” (Ramirez 2006, p.191). While design educators have responded to sustainable imperatives in various ways, it appears that approaches are mixed and often appear to be ad hoc. For example, a recent survey of Australian industrial design programmes illustrated that aspects of environmentally sensitive design are currently being incorporated in most Australian industrial design degree programs, albeit only to a minor extent (Ramirez 2006). Product Design at Auckland University of Technology The three-year undergraduate product design programme at AUT University was developed in 2007 and launched with the first intake of students in 2008. In 2010, the programme will have 75 students across the three years as well as five studying at postgraduate level. The student profile indicates that the undergraduate students in the programme have predominantly transitioned directly from secondary school with a small percentage of students in the 20 to 30 year age bracket. While the development of a new academic programme provides many organisational and operational challenges, it also presents a unique opportunity to develop new approaches to teaching and learning and without the constraints of institutional history and tradition. An innovative pedagogical approach to product design is currently being developed in the product design programme at AUT that expands the definition of a ‘product’ to become a range of outcomes i.e. ‘the product of’ a creative design process. The emphasis on learning



becomes ‘design thinking’ as an outcome rather than necessarily on the tangible, physical 3D product outcomes. Further to this, and as a response to emerging world sustainability issues, sustainable design is currently being deeply embedded in the curriculum, pedagogy and focus for the entire programme. A number of initiatives are seen by the department as a catalyst to assist in building knowledge and capability in the area of sustainable design and to start to gauge student, interest awareness and understanding of sustainably issues. ‘Everyday Interventions’ Project In 2009 the programme undertook the first student project focused on sustainable design. ‘Everyday Interventions’ was a seven week studio project undertaken by twenty three second year students at the beginning of semester two. The project was lead by a team of two lecturers, one academic and one guest lecturer from industry. The key aim of the project was to introduce and begin to engage students with some of the fundamental concepts of sustainability and sustainable design, leading to practical, tangible outcomes through a creative design process. It was also hoped that the project would also assist students to become engaged with broader issues around the role of design in creating a better future. For the purposes of the project the focus was limited to environmental dimension rather than social dimension of sustainability. Given the complex and often ‘negative impact’, focus of environmental sustainability i.e., impending climate crisis, a more optimistic approach to the project was developed to inspire and motivate students. As Ramirez (2006) argues, environmental (sustainability) education should thus have a more optimistic focus and be empowering for students. Rather than focusing on just trying to reduce the negative environmental impacts of products through design (eco efficiency), the project focused on a human-centred approach to sustainable design with potentially more positive, practical human behavioural change outcomes. Further to this, Orr (1992) states ‘the study of environmental problems is an exercise in despair unless it is regarded as only a preface to the study, design, and implementation of solutions’. Students were encouraged to see themselves as possible agents of change. A number of key lectures and discussions were used to engage students in discourse around the broader issues of sustainability and to launch and underpin the project. Students were first asked to consider how they personally envisioned the ‘future’ and this was used to unpack a number of key world environmental and social issues. From this the history of environmental and social sustainability was discussed leading to philosophical and ‘values’ based perspectives. Much of this discussion focused on the notion that while design has contributed to ‘unsustainable’ development through production/consumption models, design can potentially play a more positive role in starting to move towards a more sustainable future. Initial feedback that emerged through discussions at the beginning of the introduction suggested that while the majority of students seemed to have some understanding of the issues i.e. climate change, social issues, it was a clear that many students did not appear to grasp the breadth, depth, scale and complexity of the issues, and the implications that these issues would be likely to have on them personally and in their lifetimes. From this point a number of sustainable design frameworks and approaches were presented and then used to explore and ‘define’ sustainability and approaches to sustainable design, as well as to drive the research and creative design process. The frameworks were seen as a ‘way in’ and start point to the project, and something that students could draw upon during



the process. Students were also encouraged to also to begin their own investigations and background research. The term ‘Everyday Interventions’ was selected to deliberately remove the word ‘product’ from the title reflecting the broader approach to product design at AUT, and to encourage students to research and explore more laterally and to go beyond products such as service and system based approaches and solutions. The project was divided into three key phases: 1. Research, 2. Exploration, 3. Design. The Design Process Given the relatively short period of the project and complex nature of the topic the students were provided with a carefully structured design process and with a set of design tools and techniques. 1. Research. Given the human-centered approach to the project, a participant observation study (Bharma and Lofthouse, 2007) was used to drive the research phase of the design process. The goal was to identify ‘actual’ user practices, habits and behaviors in relation to clearly defined negative impacts on the environment. Students were asked to select an adult who they knew very well and who with agreement they were able to ‘shadow’ for an extended period of time (no less than two hours) and over a number of days while they went about normal activities. For confidentiality and ethical reasons students were also asked to not disclose any aspects of the identity of the person to other members of the class or to lecturers. The process of observation was discussed in studio sessions with most students agreeing that after a period of time the participants forgot that they were being observed and therefore were generally not moderated by the observation process. Overall the feedback from students indicated that they enjoyed the observation process and were able to look deeply at activities and behaviours with ‘fresh’ eyes. From this process, and using definitions developed, three key clearly ‘unsustainable’ practices, habits and behaviors were identified, documented and presented to small groups for evaluation. A matrix of criteria was developed to assess and evaluate each of these for ‘design potential’. From this students were able to select a particular design opportunity to explore. At this point students were also asked to further reflect of the frameworks that they were presented with. 2. Exploration. Students were then encouraged to further research and unpack the specific selected activity/behavior as a ‘system’ of interrelated steps, issues and/or factors. A number of techniques were utilised including further specific interviews with participants, photographic documentation and analysis using role playing, system diagrams and mind mapping. This resulted in the development of a set of design parameters i.e., a clearly defined opportunity to explore and ‘solve.’ A number of creative tools were then used to drive a divergent and convergent a creative design process. Students were encouraged to think laterally about the problem, and without necessarily exploring and relying on physical product outcomes. Students were reminded of



the word ‘intervention’ to assist people to begin to change behaviours as a creative trigger. Further more specific research was also encouraged at this point in the process to underpin and inform the creative process including life-cycle analysis if appropriate. Figure 1.

Example of student Life-Cycle diagram

3. Design. Informed by critique and analysis of the exploration phase, possible design solutions were then identified. These were interegated by students in class session and small group situations. Students were encouraged to quickly and effectively further explore ideas in drawings, quick 3D models and prototypes if appropriate, system diagrams, models and virtual mock-ups for testing and evaluation. From this a final design proposal was developed and presented to class in a formal critique session. Students were encouraged to engage their participants with their design proposals and to report feedback. Student Design Outcomes The following represents an example of three approaches and design outcomes to the project. 1. Clingfilm Replacement This project explored a replacement for disposable Clingfilm food wrap. Based on principle of the vacuum freezer bag, this solution offers the user a reusable, food storage and transportation (Lunchbox) solution. Figure 2.

Model of ‘Lunchbox’ design proposal



2. Paper Coffee Cups In this project the student has explored the opportunities to help consumers to ‘consider’ opportunities for reusing non-recyclable coffee cups of which billions are placed in landfills each year. The proposed solutions engage consumers with a series of humorous and thought provoking ‘second life’ creative opportunities for coffee cups through the use of innovative product graphics and branding. Figure 3.

Model of ‘Coffee Cups’ design proposal

3. Hidden Messages This project moves beyond a product solution to provide domestic bathroom users with hidden messages, which appear when activated by water use. The messages remind the users of the impacts of excessive water usage. Figure 4.

Example from ‘Hidden Messages’ design proposal.



Discussion The student responses for this project are generally in line with what is commonly presented in international eco design books (i.e. Fuad-Luke 2009, Proctor 2009) and student design competitions, where design responses are often centered identifying issues of toxicity and lowering material impacts, while minimising the impacts of human consumption/activity. The majority of student responses fell into these categories. Anecdotal evidence indicated that, while initially the majority of students seemed to have some understanding of sustainability and did not seem to grasp the breadth, depth, scale and complexity of the issues. However, it appears that students became much more interested, motivated and engaged by sustainability throughout this project. Further to this, class discussions have indicated that students have also become much more aware of their own ‘unsustainable’ behaviors and of those of their friends and families. Many have also indicated that they have now begun to engage and debate sustainability issues with them as well. The design outcomes produced by students have also demonstrated the use of ‘design thinking’ to push beyond physical 3D products to higher level services and system based solutions. While this project has provided a good platform for the programme to begin to engage students with issues around sustainability and sustainable design, it is believed that there is a need to engage students more deeply around ecology to underpin a more effective approach to sustainable design. Vezzolo and Manzini (2008) suggest that the dependence of society (present and future) on the long term functioning of complex ecosystems is often forgotten. One approach may entail engaging students in real environmental design problems by working alongside biologists and ecologists. This approach to collaboration will help ensure design students are able develop a deeper understanding of ecological systems and processes. From this, they will develop a level of ecological literacy that will help them to engage in ecodesign projects in a genuinely more meaningful way. It will help provide them the tools to challenge their design actions and impart them with the knowledge of what questions they should be asking, and what specialists may be able to help them answer these questions. It is anticipated that an important outcome of this approach is that design students learn to acknowledge the complexity of ecological systems. Traditionally designers often oversimplify such systems in order to attain suitable design outcomes, which may result in superficial design responses to issues of sustainability. These are probably due to a failure of designers to understand the complexity of ecological systems. For example, Bhamra and Lofthouse (2007) describe a compostable mobile phone case that releases a seed on disintegration. Similarly, Braungart et al. (2007) describe a potential Cradle to Cradle design solution where a biodegradable ice cream wrapper may be designed to contain seeds to be thrown away to supporting plant life. While the growing of plants appears to be a worthwhile ideal, in New Zealand many “garden plants” have escaped to become invasive weeds resulting in considerable ecological destruction (DOC 2002). The potential negative impact of this eco-approach is likely to be further exaggerated in a global economy where products are shipped and consumed worldwide. The spread of alien invasive species has had considerable impacts on indigenous species worldwide and is a continued threat to global biodiversity (Bright 1998, Mooney & Hobbs 2000, Myers 2002, Younge 2002).



In the context of ecological design challenges, understanding that systems are complex and may not be easily simplified is an important insight when dealing with issues of sustainability. Such projects will help students to better appreciate this. In addition, by being able to understand and manage the complexity of ecological systems will help them to better cope with exploring the complexity of the relationships between the environment, society and the economy. A greater involvement in design projects that are ecological in nature (i.e. products for conservation) is way for students to access knowledge regarding the serious consequence of people’s impacts on the environment. However, unlike confronting doom scenarios, such projects will demonstrate the positive power of design to facilitate positive change for the future. Such an approach might help students better understand the necessity for people to demonstrate a greater engagement with nature. In doing so, they might develop a greater appreciation of the role of biodiversity and the benefits of it for people. Conclusion This paper has presented an approach to sustainable design currently under development in the new product design programme at AUT University. It has included an overview of a second year product design project that has begun to engage students with the complex issues of sustainability and sustainable design. It illustrates some of the challenges when attempting to engage students with sustainable design. Furthermore, it is important to continue to challenge students to move beyond simple eco design strategies and responses. In order to achieve this requires that design educators help find projects that challenge students and require that they engage with environmental issues at a deeper level. It is essential that universities and institutions of higher learning engage students with sustainability and it is also essential that teaching of sustainable design is embedded deeply into the curriculum of design programmes. In addition, is important to develop sustainable product design capacity in New Zealand. By educating a new breed of environmentally aware designers will ultimately help to demonstrate the value of design to external stakeholders involved in the environmental, agricultural and conservation sciences. References Bhamra, T. and Lofthouse, V. 2007. Design for Sustainability: A practical approach. Goweer Publishing Limited. Hampshire, England. Bright, C. 1998. Life out of bounds; bioinvasion in a borderless world. W.W. Norton & Company Ltd, New York, USA. Cortese, A. 2003. The critical role of higher education in creating a sustainable future. Planning for Higher Education. March-May 15 – 22 DOC (Department of Conservation) 2002. Space Invaders; A summary of the Department of Conservation’s strategic plan for managing invasive weeds. The Science Publication Unit, Department of Conservation. Wellington, New Zealand. Doppelt, B. 2003. Leading change toward sustainability: A change management guide for business, government and civil society. Sheffield: Greenleaf Publishing. Fuad-Luke, A. 2009. The eco-design handbook: a complete sourcebook for the home and office. London: Thames & Hudson. ICSID 2001 ICSID Seoul 2001. Industrial Designers Declaration, International Council of Societies of Industrial Design, Seoul.



Leape, J. 2006. Living Planet Report 2006. Gland: World Wildlife Fund. Lilley, D, 2009 in press. Design for sustainable behaviour: strategies and perceptions, Design Studies doi:10.1016/j.destud.2009.05.001 Manzini, E. 2006. Design for sustainability: How to design sustainable solutions. INDACO. Manzini, E. & Jegou, F. 2003. Sustainable everyday. Milano: Edizioni Ambiente. Manzini, E. & Jegou, F. 2003. Sustainable everyday. Milano: Edizioni Ambiente. McDonough W., & Braungart, M. 2002. Introduction to the cradle to cradle design framework, Version 7.02: McDonough Braungart Design Chemistry. Mooney, H. and Hobbs, R.J. 2000. Invasive species in a changing world. Island Press. Washington, DC. USA. Myers, N. 2002. Biodiversity and biodepletion: the need for a paradigm shift. Pp 46-60 in O’Riordan and Stoll-Kleenmann (eds) Biodividersity, sustainability and human communities: protecting beyond the protected. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England. Orr, D.W. 1992, Ecological Literacy: Education and the Transition to a Post Modern World. Albany: State University of New York Press. Papanek, V. 1971. Design for the real world: human ecology and social change. London: Thames & Hudson. Proctor, R. 2009. 1000 new eco designs and where to find them. London: Laurence King Publishers. Ramirez, R. 2006. Sustainability in the education of industrial designers: the case for Australia. International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education, 7(2), 189-202. Stevels, A. 1999. Integration of ecodesign into business, a new challenge. Paper presented at the Proceedings. EcoDesign '99: First International Symposium on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing. Tokyo, Japan. Tischner, U. Schminke, E., Rubik, F., & Prosler, M. 2000. How to eco design. Frankfurt: Verlag form GmgH. Wals, A.E.J and Jickling, B. 2002. Sustainability" in higher education: from doublethink and newspeak to critical thinking and meaningful learning. International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education. 3(3), 221-232. WCED. (Ed.). 1987. Our common future: World Commission on Environment and Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Younge, A. 2002. An ecoregional approach to biodiversity conservation in the Cape Floral Kingdom, South Africa. Pp 168-188 in T. O’Riordan and S. Stoll-Kleenmann (eds) Biodividersity, sustainability and human communities: protecting beyond the protected. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England.



Rendall, Mr. Stacy1a (Presenter) Krumdieck, A/Prof. Susana, Page, Dr. Shannona , Reitsma, Dr. Femkeb, Van Houten, Dr. Elijaha 1

Corresponding author: AEMS Lab, Dept. Mechanical Engineering, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand. Tel.: +64 3 3642987; fax +64 3 364 2078; email: [email protected] a

Advanced Energy and Material Systems (AEMS) Lab, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041 b

Department of Geography, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041

Quantifying Transport Energy Resilience: Active Mode Accessibility Intended category: Resilient Societies Abstract A reduction in the energy intensity of private transport is necessary to mitigate the uncertainties of future oil supplies, given the impending peak in world conventional oil production. The built environment and transport infrastructure of an urban form will determine the extent to which low impact adaptations to these constraints are possible, and hence the resilience of residents to fuel price shocks and constraints. This paper introduces the concept of Active Mode Accessibility, a method to characterise the underlying geographic form of an urban area and its transport networks. The active mode accessibility is defined as the proportion of activities that can be reached by active modes, given the population demographics of the study area. Greater active mode accessibility implies greater resilience to fuel price shocks and constraints. This paper introduces a spatial method for characterising the active mode accessibility within a selected study area, a GISbased tool for applying the method, and presents two case studies. The active mode accessibility analysis is relevant to the redevelopment of existing areas and during the planning of new developments. The central Christchurch case study gives an active mode accessibility of 100%, as there are a wide range of local facilities available for every activity. The Rolleston township case study gives a significantly lower active mode accessibility of 62%, due to a lack of local facilities. The high facility density of central Christchurch for all activities results in a high level of resilience to both fuel price shocks and constraints. The complete lack of local pre-school and secondary education facilities was found to drastically reduce the resilience of Rolleston. As both study areas are expected to significantly increase in population in the near future, these findings are valuable for future planning within the context of fuel constraints.



1. Introduction The peaking of world oil production is imminent; the International Energy Agency (IEA) calculates that conventional oil production will plateau before 2030, while a meta-analysis of peak oil prediction dates undertaken by Krumdieck et al. presents a 100% probability that the peak will occur before 2030 (IEA & OECD, 2009; Krumdieck, Page, & Dantas, 2010). Furthermore, alternative fuels will be unable to account for the resulting energy shortfall (IEA & OECD, 2009; Krumdieck & Dantas, 2008). Contemporary urban forms have been designed under the assumption that transport energy is cheap and readily available. Fuel price shocks and growing transport fuel prices will affect access to goods and services, and will create significant flow-on social and economic costs if users cannot adapt (Auckland City Council, 2008; Connor, 2009; Gusdorf & Hallegatte, 2007; Harward & Mussen, 2008). Energy consumption of the household travel sector is strongly related to the design and layout of the urban form (Bento, Cropper, Mobarak, & Vinha, 2003; Cao, Mokhtarian, & Handy, 2009; Frank, 2004; Sharpe, 1978). Residents will adapt their transport behaviour to meet energy constraints, but there are limits to the extent of adaptation possible, which are defined by the urban form. The hypothesis of this research is that the underlying geographic form of an urban area and its transport networks, the ‘urban form’, has some proportion of the resident activity transport system that can be met by active modes. Active Mode Accessibility is defined as the proportion of activities that can be reached by active modes, given the population demographics of the study area. Greater active mode accessibility implies greater resilience to fuel price shocks and constraints. This paper introduces a spatial method for measuring the active mode accessibility within a selected study area, a GIS-based tool for applying the method, and presents two case studies. 2. Background 2.1 Transport energy consumption and the urban form The transport energy consumption of an individual is a product of both the travel modes utilised and destinations selected. These are in turn dependent on individual behaviour and factors of the built environment. Although transport behaviour is complex and varied, certain links with urban form are apparent. For example, residents of highly walkable neighbourhoods (those that feature higher population density, network connectivity and land use mix) tend to engage in a greater number of shorter trips, which are more easily made by active modes. As a result, they partake in approximately twice the number walking trips per week compared to residents of low walkable neighbourhoods (Cao, et al., 2009; Ewing & Cervero, 2010; Frank, Chapman, Bradley, & Lawton, 2005; Sallis, Frank, Saelens, & Kraft, 2004). Figure 1 indicates the differences between walkable and non-walkable urban forms in Christchurch. The Central City has a transport network with higher connectivity (greater effective distance covered for the same walking time), and a much greater range and number of destinations available. Studies show that the most influential factors relating to fuel consumption are destination proximity and the availability and practicality of alternative (non-car) modes. Both of which are complex products of population density, network connectivity and land use mix (Bento, et al., 2003; Ewing & Cervero, 2010; Frank, et al., 2005; Gordon, 2008; Kenworthy, 2003; Sallis, et al., 2004).



Figure 1. 15 minute (1.2 km) walk along the road network in a) the Christchurch Central City and b) Northwood suburb, Christchurch. 2.2 Transport adaptation and resilience To reduce the effects of both high fuel prices and potential fuel shortfalls, private transport users may adapt their transport behaviour to reduce energy consumption (Krumdieck, et al., 2010). There are five methods of transport adaptation: modifying travel time to avoid network peaks; chaining trips; changing fuel type; shifting to a more efficient mode; and changing destination (Chatterjee & Lyons, 2002; Krumdieck, et al., 2010; Transportation Research Board, 1980). If none of the adaptation methods is possible for an activity that can no longer be accessed by car, it must be forgone, with consequent impact upon the individuals’ wellbeing. The extent to which a user can adapt their transport energy consumption to reduce costs or meet constraints, without forgoing activities, is transport resilience. Furthermore, adaptation is limited by the nature and geography of the built environment and transport infrastructure (Chatterjee & Lyons, 2002; Gusdorf & Hallegatte, 2007; Transportation Research Board, 1980). A walkable form, such as that shown in Figure 1.a, allows residents greater adaptability; alternative modes are more viable, due to shorter distances and higher density, and there are a large number and wide range of destinations available. Short term fuel price increases tend to disadvantage lower income households disproportionately, particularly where inexpensive housing is situated in low density suburbs at the urban fringe - both far from destinations and not adequately served by public transport (Dodson & Sipe, 2005, 2006; Transportation Research Board, 1980). However, supply disruptions which limit the availability of transport fuel, such as those experienced by western countries during the 1970’s and in the UK in 2000, affect all residents. Higher income households still have a greater range of responses available, such as purchasing a more efficient vehicle (Chatterjee & Lyons, 2002; Peskin, 1980; Transportation Research Board, 1980). During both historic fuel disruptions a large number of trips were forgone,



including those for leisure, business and shopping activities. This indicates a lack of transport resilience; a result of urban forms which did not allow residents to adapt. 2.3 Current tools There have been a number of recent developments with relevance to transport resilience: The URBANSim Project, which integrates land-use and transport planning (Borning, Waddell, & Forster, 2006). The use of accessibility modelling in planning. Accessibility assesses whether an activity or facility can be reached within a certain distance, time or financial criterion. Recent studies include: measuring the service area of facilities via different modes; investigating the service areas of public transport, and the facilities that are thereby accessible; and considering the number of destinations that can be accessed from select origins by various modes, and how this may be affected by policy changes (Mavoa, 2007; Pitot, Yigitcanlar, Sipe, & Evans, 2005; Vandenbulcke, Steenberghen, & Thomas, 2009). Furthermore, a number of recent Australian studies have investigated the spatial distribution of financial fuel price vulnerability within selected cities. The study measured vulnerability as a function of socio-economic status, car dependence and vehicle use (Dodson & Sipe, 2005); a second study then included the effects of mortgage in the vulnerability assessment (Dodson & Sipe, 2006). A more recent study considered the factors of vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT), vehicle fuel economy, fuel use, modal split and income to assess vulnerability (Fishman & Brennan, 2009). While these studies focus on understanding current transport behaviour, or investigating the spatial patterns of financial transport vulnerability, they do not assess the urban form properties that characterise transport resilience. In this paper we propose an Active Mode Accessibility characterisation of the underlying geographic form and transport networks of an urban area. The active mode accessibility is defined as the proportion of activities that can be reached by active modes, given the population demographics of the study area. Greater active mode accessibility implies greater resilience to fuel price shocks and constraints. 3 Method 3.1 Theory Active Mode Accessibility is a behaviour-independent property of the built urban form. It is a function of population demography, distances to destinations and the viability of active modes. Characterising this property for a study area will: indicate activities that lack facilities accessible by non-car modes; highlight possible modifications to the transport network to increase active access; produce a Minimum Energy Requirement for the study area, by measuring the nonactive travel required. The minimum energy requirement provides: o an ‘energy footprint’ figure for the area (if compared to current VKT); and o a peak oil based timeframe (the resiliency timeframe) within which adaptations alone will be sufficient to mitigate the effects of energy constraints; beyond which point activities will have to be forgone.



The active mode accessibility analysis consists of two steps; measuring the distance from each residence to the closest destination for every activity; then selecting the minimum energy travel mode for each destination, as a function of age and distance. Active mode accessibility is the proportion of total activities that can be met by active modes. Summing the number of trips, and distances, travelled by energy consuming modes will then produce a minimum energy requirement for the study area. The method utilises a Minimal Energy Activity System, constant over all study areas, defined by: Activity Frequency Model – yearly trips to activities, by age group; and Mode Model – maximum travel distance for each mode, by age group. Data required to implement the method, for each study area: Census data of population age demography; spatial location of residences; spatial location of destinations, by activity classification; and transport networks. 3.2 Application The method has been implemented in a computer model, programmed in the Python language and utilising the OGR Simple Feature Library to interface with geographic data (GDAL Development Team, 2009; Python Software Foundation, 2010). Model characteristics (at current stage of development): utilises Euclidean distance measurement; uses the closest facility of each activity type; considers private vehicle and active modes only; considers all destination types except employment; and assumes facilities and modes are not capacity constrained. The major outputs of the program are: distance-based spatial accessibility analysis for each activity type; minimum energy travel mode to closest facility plots; active mode accessibility (percentage of activities); and minimum energy requirement (minimum Vehicle Kilometres, or Litres of Fuel, per capita).



4. Results Two case studies from the greater Christchurch area are compared; the Central City (study area population 5700) and the satellite town of Rolleston (study area population 3800), which lies approximately 20km from central Christchurch. Destinations were incorporated from both the study area and surroundings to avoid edge effects. Table 1, Figure 2 and Table 2 display the case study results. Table 1. Study area comparison of destination counts and accessibility plots for selected activities.

Number of destinations analysed

Central City

Rolleston

Study area and surrounding Census Area Units: 1755 destinations

Study area and 5km radius: 103 destinations

(0.3 destinations per capita)

(0.03 destinations per capita)

Supermarket Accessibility

Primary School Accessibility

High School Accessibility



Central City

Rolleston

Activities

Tertiary Education Secondary Education Primary Education Pre-School Social Retail Recreation Other Maintenance Healthcare Groceries Fast Food Cultural Component Food

0%

20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

0%

% Households

20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % Households

Drive

Bicycle

Walk

Figure 2. Minimum energy travel mode to closest facility for each study area.

Table 2. Active Mode Accessibility and Minimum Energy Requirement results.

Active Mode Accessibility

Central City

Rolleston

100%

62%

Minimum Energy Requirement 0 L/Person/Year Vehicle fleet efficiency approximately 10 L/100km (Ministry of Transport, 2010)

545 L/Person/Year

5. Discussion The active mode accessibility method has shown a significant quantitative difference in the resilience of the two urban forms. The results show that Rolleston, having fewer local facilities and lacking facilities for pre-school and secondary education activities, has a much lower active mode accessibility than the Central City. In consequence, Rolleston also has a higher minimum energy requirement. The accessibility plots indicate that it is not the distribution of facilities within Rolleston that contribute to its low active mode accessibility score, but the complete lack of local facilities for certain activities. These findings are of



particular interest, given that both study areas are expected to experience high levels of population growth in the near future, the Central City to 30,000 people by 2026 and Rolleston to around 20,000 residents by 2045 (Christchurch City Council, 2006; Selwyn District Council, 2009). Future model runs will assess the resilience implications of both the proposed redevelopment of the Central City and the expansion of Rolleston. 5.1 Future model development Model capabilities currently under development: Travel distances calculated along the transport network. Inclusion of real data, derived from the Household Travel survey, within the activity frequency and mode models, which are currently only hypothetical. Specifying and implementing activity classification corrections, which will account for multiple destinations classed within the same activity. For example, currently only the closest retail destination is located, even though the retail classification contains more than 12 distinct destination facility types. Including public transport as a mode, employment as an activity and the capacity of education facilities in the analysis. The above modifications are likely to have little effect upon the active mode accessibility of the Central City as it is highly connected, destination dense, and contains a large number of employment opportunities. However, addition of these factors will further reduce the active mode accessibility of Rolleston, as: The inclusion of employment will result in a significant increase in the number of household trips, most of which will be to destinations outside the local area; Network distances to destinations will be greater, and activity classification corrections will result in increased distances to access all relevant facilities, both tending to shift trips into higher energy modes. 6. Conclusions Urban transportation systems, the combination of destinations and transport networks within an urban environment, form a vital part of functioning urban environments. However, the resiliency of users within these systems to fuel price shocks and constraints, although previously unquantified, historically appears low; as indicated by the high numbers of forgone trips during previous oil crises. This novel method provides an understanding of, and empirically measures, transportation resilience. The active mode accessibility calculation introduced in this paper contributes an important new understanding to future transport and land-use planning. The results of the two case studies investigated within this paper indicate some of the valuable outputs of this tool in understanding the factors that contribute to both transport resilience and vulnerability. Broad suggestions for improving transport resilience can currently be drawn from the results even though the model is still under development; particularly the necessity for local pre-school and secondary education facilities in Rolleston. As both study areas are expected to significantly increase in population in the near future, these findings are valuable for future planning within the context of fuel constraints.



Acknowledgements Central City origins data was acquired from Boffa Miskell environmental planning and design consultancy, on behalf of the Christchurch City Council. Destinations data was derived from the Zenbu Everything from Zenbu.co.nz dataset, and transport network data is from the NZ Open GPS Maps Improved Road Centrelines dataset, both available from http://koordinates.com/.

6. References Auckland City Council (2008). Economic analysis for Auckland, July 2008. Retrieved 27 August, 2008, from author: http://www.aucklandcity.govt.nz/auckland/Economy/analysis/default.asp Bento, A. M., Cropper, M. L., Mobarak, A. M., & Vinha, K. (2003). The Impact of Urban Spatial Structure on Travel Demand in the United States. Washington: The World Bank. Borning, A., Waddell, P., & Forster, R. (2006). UrbanSim: Using Simulation to Inform Public Deliberation and Decision-Making. Seattle: University of Washington. Cao, X., Mokhtarian, P. L., & Handy, S. L. (2009). The relationship between the built environment and nonwork travel: A case study of Northern California. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 43(5), 548-559. Chatterjee, K., & Lyons, G. (Eds.). (2002). Transport lessons from the fuel tax protests of 2000. Aldershot: Ashgate. Christchurch City Council (2006). Central City Revitalisation Strategy: Stage 2. from http://resources.ccc.govt.nz/files/CCRPStage2-projectcentralcity.pdf. Connor, S. (2009, 3 August 2009). Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast. The Independent Retrieved 28 August, 2009, from http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-outfast-1766585.html Dodson, J., & Sipe, N. (2005). Oil Vulnerability in the Australian City. Brisbane: Griffith University. Dodson, J., & Sipe, N. (2006). Shocking the Suburbs: Urban Location, Housing Debt and Oil Vulnerability in the Australian City. Brisbane: Griffith University. Ewing, R., & Cervero, R. (2010). Travel and the Built Environment -- A Meta-Analysis. Journal of the American Planning Association, 76(3), 265 - 294. Fishman, E., & Brennan, T. (2009). Oil Vulnerability in Melbourne. Melbourne: Institute for Sensible Transport. Frank, L. D. (2004). Economic determinants of urban form: Resulting trade-offs between active and sedentary forms of travel. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 27(3, Supplement 1), 146-153. Frank, L. D., Chapman, J., Bradley, M., & Lawton, K. (2005). Travel Behaviour, Emissions & Land Use Correlation Analysis in the Central Puget Sound. Seattle: Washington State Department of Transportation. GDAL Development Team (2009). OGR Simple Feature Library (Part of GDAL - Geospatial Data Abstraction Library), Version 1.6.1. Open Source Geospatial Foundation: http://gdal.osgeo.org/. Gordon, I. (2008). Density and the built environment. Energy Policy, 36(12), 4652-4656. Gusdorf, F., & Hallegatte, S. (2007). Compact or spread-out cities: Urban planning, taxation, and the vulnerability to transportation shocks. Energy Policy, 35(10), 4826-4838.



Harward, E., & Mussen, D. (2008). Fill up now before fuel price shock hits. Retrieved 27 August, from Sunday Star Times: http://www.stuff.co.nz/4576379a6442.html IEA, & OECD (2009). World energy outlook Retrieved 30th June, 2010, from http://lysander.sourceoecd.org.ezproxy.canterbury.ac.nz/vl=13088122/cl=24/nw=1/rp sv/cw/vhosts/oecdthemes/99980053/v2009n18/contp1-1.htm Kenworthy, J. R. (2003). Transport Energy Use and Greenhouse Gases in Urban Passenger Transport Systems: A Study of 84 Global Cities. Paper presented at the The International Third Conference of the Regional Government Network for Sustainable Development, Fremantle, Western Australia. Krumdieck, S., & Dantas, A. (2008). The Visioning Project: Part of the Transition Engineering Process: AEMS Lab. Krumdieck, S., Page, S., & Dantas, A. (2010). Urban form and long-term fuel supply decline: A method to investigate the peak oil risks to essential activities. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 44(5), 306-322. Mavoa, S. (2007). Estimating the Social Impact of Reduced CO2 Emissions from Household Travel Using GIS Modelling. Paper presented at the 30th Australasian Transport Research Forum Ministry of Transport (2010). The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet: Annual Fleet Statistics 2009. Peskin, R. L. (1980). Policy Implications of Urban Traveler Response to Recent Gasoline Shortages. Paper presented at the National Energy Users' Conference for Transportation. Pitot, M., Yigitcanlar, T., Sipe, N., & Evans, R. (2005). Land Use & Public Transport Accessibility Index (LUPTAI) Tool - The development and pilot application of LUPTAI for the Gold Coast. Paper presented at the 29th Australasian Transport Research Forum. Python Software Foundation (2010). Python Programming Language, Version 2.6.4. Python Software Foundation: http://www.python.org/. Sallis, J. F., Frank, L. D., Saelens, B. E., & Kraft, M. K. (2004). Active transportation and physical activity: opportunities for collaboration on transportation and public health research. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 38(4), 249-268. Selwyn District Council (2009). Rolleston Structure Plan. from http://www.selwyn.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/14361/Final-RollestonStructure-Plan-230909.pdf. Sharpe, R. (1978). The Effect of Urban Form on Transport Energy Patterns. Urban Ecology, 3, 125-135. Transportation Research Board (1980). Considerations in Transportation Energy Contingency Planning. Washington, D.C.: National Academy of Sciences. Vandenbulcke, G., Steenberghen, T., & Thomas, I. (2009). Mapping accessibility in Belgium: a tool for land-use and transport planning? Journal of Transport Geography, 17(1), 39-53.



AUTHOR:

Ms. Anna Robak

Co-authors:

Dr Henning Bjornlund (University of South Australia and University of Lethbridge)

Presenter:

Anna Robak

Title of Paper:

Trade-offs between public health and environmental protection in a potable water supply context: Drinking Water Standards New Zealand vs resource consent conditions

Anna Robak Environmental Engineer (Opus International Consultants)/ PhD candidate (UniSA) PO Box 5848, Auckland Phone: 09 355 7148 Email: [email protected] ABSTRACT

Water suppliers face significant financial pressure because of ageing infrastructure, increasing demand, and increasingly stringent legislative requirements. Their funds are generally insufficient to meet all of these requirements; it is therefore necessary to begin considering alternative approaches for providing safe, secure drinking water. One of the most important opportunities for achieving public health, environmental, and economic targets is a more collaborative approach involving ‘soft’ options. Water suppliers tend to select engineering options for compliance even when soft path options are available – partially because they lack the quantitative assessment to back up the softer options. If water suppliers quantitatively assessed and therefore understood the costs and benefits of their options, they could use this insight to pressure legislators to justify or amend standards and conditions, as well as to expand the range of permissible compliance options. In New York, over nine million people drink unfiltered water thanks to catchment protection initiatives. Filtration plants would have incurred significant costs and produced significant volumes of sludge that would need to be disposed of in an environmentally responsible manner, which would incur further costs. The DWSNZ require filtration plants for any surface water, thereby producing sludge and requiring discharge consents. To comply with discharge consent conditions, water suppliers build costly sludge handling facilities that can use significant energy and chemicals. New York City has avoided all of these financial and environmental costs using a soft path approach. The Ministry of Health and regional councils should consider more collaborative approaches in New Zealand. KEYWORDS

Drinking water standards, discharge consent conditions, soft path INTRODUCTION Aproximately 90% of New Zealanders drink water that is provided through centralised potable water supply systems (MoH 2010). The purpose of these potable water supply systems is to



protect public health and ensure a continuous supply of water. As such, water suppliers’ activities are subject to a number of pieces of legislation. Ironically, water suppliers’ investments to meet these pieces of legislation may negatively affect public health and environmental welfare, and increase ongoing costs in order to comply with the Health (Drinking Water) Amendment Act 2007 (HDWAA) (MoH 2008b), and the Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA) (MfE 1991). Although these pieces of legislation do not explicitly require new infrastructure, water suppliers and regulators appear to express a preference for ‘hard’ solutions. In this paper we propose that there are ‘softer’ ways of complying with legislation. The HDWAA requires that, as of 2016, water suppliers take all practicable steps to comply with the Drinking Water Standards for New Zealand 2005 (DWSNZ) (MoH 2008a). The DWSNZ prescribe maximum acceptable values (MAVs) for chemical, cyanotoxin and radiological determinands, as well as for E. coli and protozoa; monitoring requirements for bacteria; and treatment process barriers for protozoa compliance. Typically, a protozoa barrier is the most expensive compliance component. In practice, the HDWAA has directed the installation of new protozoa removal / inactivation equipment, which is accompanied by power consumption, other consumables, and ongoing costs. The DWSNZ use a ‘log credit’ system for protozoa compliance, where the level of treatment (log credit) required increases according to the catchment’s protozoa risk category. In a catchment with intensive animal farming, for example, the highest level of treatment (5 log) is required. Surface waters require a minimum of 3 log treatment, which typically implies filtration. The RMA delegates power to regional councils to set conditions on discharge to surface waters, among other powers. Water treatment plants (WTP) that take from surface waters are likely to require a form of filtration for protozoa compliance. The filtration process produces a sludge byproduct because it captures contaminants, particulates, and chemical coagulants. Regional councils set conditions such that the sludge cannot be returned to the surface water. In practice, therefore, the RMA has directed the installation of sludge handling facilities, which are accompanied by power consumption, other consumables, and ongoing costs. Sludge handling options typically include disposal to land on the water treatment site; transfer to the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) by pumping or sucker truck; and treatment on site with transfer to landfill by carting. Disposal to land on site is often not feasible due to site constraints, including a high water table or a small footprint. The WWTP and landfill options both require sludge handling facilities on site due to the large instantaneous volumes of sludge produced during filter cleaning. Very large pump stations, pipes, and sludge treatment infrastructure would be required to treat the large instantaneous flows, so a balance tank or holding basin is required to allow sludge treatment over a longer period. In addition to the balance tank, the WWTP option may require a pump station, an increase in capacity of the existing wastewater reticulation, and an increase in treatment capacity, including power consumption, chemicals, and other consumables, at the WWTP. The water treatment sludge may also dilute the wastewater, reducing WWTP efficiency. The landfill option would include a sludge thickening or bagging system which consume power and require chemical dosing and other consumables, and carting to landfill produces further emissions.



In addition to these extra financial and environmental costs, it is debatable that this sludge diversion activity is economically efficient or even achieves the desired outcome. Sludge handling facilities may cost in the order of $0.5M for a WTP serving 5000 people, yet compared to runoff from farms, WTP sludge may have negligible impact on stream health. Catchment protection measures might be more cost effective. The additional infrastructure installed for DWSNZ and discharge consent condition compliance consumes additional power, chemicals, and materials; and produce additional wastes and emissions. These wastes and emissions affect public health and the environment, which the HDWAA and RMA set out to protect. The typical response to DWSNZ and discharge consent conditions has been to construct new infrastructure; however, the spirit of the HDWAA and RMA allow for broader consideration of options, which the authors highlight in this paper. HOW TO COMPLY WITH DWSNZ FOR PROTOZOA There are three simple steps to complying with the DWSNZ for protozoa: (1) assess catchment risk (log credit required); (2) assess existing protozoa treatment (log credit provided); and (3) make log credit provided ≥ log credit required. For Step 1, water suppliers may monitor cryptosporidium counts over a 12-month period, or use Table 1 as a qualitative lookup table. Step 2, assessing the log credit provided by the existing treatment plant, is explained in the DWSNZ. Step 3, provide log credit ≥ log credit required, requires either a reduction in log credit required or an increase in log credit provided. Table 1. Log credit requirements, supplies serving < 10,000 people (source: Table 5.1a DWSNZ2005)

Catchment or groundwater protozoal risk category Surface waters Waters from pastoral catchment with frequent high concentrations of cattle, sheep, horses or humans, or a waste treatment outfall nearby or upstream Waters from pastoral catchment that always has low concentrations of cattle, sheep, horses or humans in immediate vicinity or upstream Water from forest, bush, scrub or tussock catchments with no agricultural activity Groundwaters Bore water 0 to 10 m deep and springs are treated as requiring the same log credit as the surface water in the overlying catchment Bore water drawn from an unconfined aquifer 10 to 30 m deep, and satisfies groundwater security criteria 2 Bore water drawn from deeper than 30 m, and satisfies bore water security criteria 2interim secure, and provisionally secure bore water Secure,

Log credits required 5 4 3 3–5 3 2 0

PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT DWSNZ COMPLIANCE APPROACHES DWSNZ compliance is economically and environmentally inefficient for the following reasons: 1. Water suppliers do not assess the practicability of complying with the DWSNZ 2. There is a focus on protozoa risks, when there may be more significant bacteria risks



a. Protozoa risks may be more costly to reduce than bacteria risks b. Protozoa risk categories from Table 1 may be more conservative than ‘measured’ risk 3. Protozoa compliance by installing barriers rather than by reducing catchment risks a. Barriers are costly and produce additional wastes, by-products, and emissions b. Opportunities for environmental protection may be missed Problem 1: Practicability of DWSNZ compliance The HDWAA requires that water suppliers ‘take all practicable steps to comply with the drinking-water standards’ (MoH 2008b), where practicability is in terms of affordability relative to potential harm and risk of illness (clause 69H). Yet water suppliers generally do not quantify the environmental impacts or public health benefits of compliance. This lack of analysis makes it difficult to decide whether to invest in improved compliance or alternative projects with public health, economic, or other benefits. In theory, compliance with DWSNZ should be an absolute requirement; but even local authority water suppliers have other public health related risks such as structural vulnerabilities to seismic events (addressed through the Building Act 2004) and traffic black spots. Water suppliers need to assess and prioritise these competing demands. Problem 2: Focus on protozoa risks Protozoa risks more costly to reduce than bacteria/reticulation risks? In New Zealand, the most prominent public health risks in drinking water supplies are due to protozoa and bacteria. We assume protozoa risks are in the catchment, and therefore address them at the WTP; whereas the bacteria risks are both in the catchment and in the reticulation. Low and negative pressures in the distribution systems may suck in contaminated soil and water adjacent to the pipes through cracks in the pipes or flooded air valves (Besner et al. 2010). According to DWSNZ, we can only reduce protozoa risks through catchment protection or treatment infrastructure, but we can reduce bacteria risks through chlorination and rapid response to monitoring. Protozoa risks therefore get more attention, yet reviews of waterborne disease outbreaks disagree on which factor contributes most significantly to these outbreaks. In a review of 288 Canadian drinking water related waterborne disease outbreaks between 1974 and 2001, Schuster et al. (2005) found that protozoa and bacteria contributed equally to the number of waterborne disease outbreaks; they did not, however, consider whether the problem was with the source / treatment or with the distribution system. In a review of 126 US drinking water related waterborne disease outbreaks between 1991 and 1998, Craun, Calderon & Nwachuku (2003) found that distribution system deficiencies contributed to the largest number of outbreak events. Finally, in a review of 61 drinking water related waterborne disease outbreaks in the European Union, Risebro et al. (2007) found that distribution system failures contributed to about one third of outbreaks and, importantly, noted that while source and treatment failures contributed to a larger number of events, they also had, on average, four causal factors. Distribution system failures had only two. As Risebro et al. note, “Events occurring in the distribution system are likely to be more catastrophic as there are fewer barriers between the incident and the consumer, leaving less time and opportunity for remediation.” Although these three studies indicate the importance of distribution failures to waterborne disease outbreaks, they do not compare the magnitude of consequences caused by different types of system failures.



A back of the envelope estimate – To compare the protozoa and bacteria risks, let us analyse a theoretical water supply serving 7500 people. For the protozoa risk, let us assume that the treatment provides one log credit less than required. For the bacteria risk, let us assume that each customer is affected twice each year by a low pressure event caused by a break or maintenance event in the distribution system. Robak & Bjornlund (2009) find that we can expect between 3 and 30 annual illnesses due to protozoa in a town of 7500 people, where the catchment has a 4-log requirement and only 3-log treatment is provided. By providing a 4-log treatment, the number of illnesses will reduce tenfold, to between 0.3 and 3 annual illnesses. The gains in providing an extra log credit are therefore between 2.7 and 27 protozoa illnesses annually. One study in Norway suggested that each time there is a low pressure event caused by a mains break or maintenance, the risk of gastrointestinal illness (GII) increases by between 10% and 130% (Nygård et al. 2007). In New Zealand, we can roughly estimate the incidence of GII as 86,000 cases per year, based on MfE (2007) (Table 2). New Zealand’s population is approximately 4.4 million (StatsNZ 2010), implying an average GII rate of 86,000/4,400,000 = 2% per year, or, because GIIs tend to last approximately one week, 0.038% of the population affected by illness per week. If two low pressure events occur in a distribution system in a year, then we can expect between 6 and 13 illnesses annually attributable to distribution system ‘failures’ (# events x endemic illness rate x distribution system relative risk x population = 2 x 0.00038 x 1.1 x 7500 = 6; at upper end, relative risk is 2.3 and we expect 13 illnesses). Our uncertainties include the endemic GII rate and the causal relationship between New Zealand maintenance practices and GII. In the Norwegian study, the endemic GII rate was 8%, which is much higher than our assumption. Furthermore, Hunter et al (2005) found that consumers who had experienced low pressure events at the tap were 12 times more likely to become ill. Table 2. Estimated annual number of gastrointestinal illness cases in New Zealand 2008-09 (adapted from MfE 2007 and updated to 2009 dollars)

Pathogen

Cases reported (2008-09)

% reported (NZ Med J, 2000)

Cryptosporidiosis Giardiasis

813 1,717

10 10

Campylobacteriosis E. coli O157 (VTEC) Salmonellosis Shigellosis Yersiniosis

6,828 156

13 35

1,296 130 493

31 26 20

81

15

Virus (including Hepatitis A)

Total cases

Protozoa 8130 17,170 Bacteria 52,523 446 4181 500 2465 Viruses 540

Cost per case (1999 $) (MfE 2007)

Cost per case (2009 $)

Total cost ($000)

978 855

1266 1107

10,293 19,004

533 60,000

690 77671

36,240 34,619

526 253 891

681 328 1153

2,847 164 2,843

204

264

143



Pathogen

Total

Cases reported (2008-09)

% reported (NZ Med J, 2000)

11,384

Total cases Total 85,954

Cost per case (1999 $) (MfE 2007)

Cost per case (2009 $)

Total cost ($000) 106,151

Our back-of-the-envelope analysis suggests that in a town of 7500 people, we can expect to reduce the number of protozoa illnesses by 2.7 to 27 annually by increasing from a 3-log to a 4log protozoa barrier in a 4-log catchment. Assuming we could halve the number of illnesses through improved maintenance and repair practices, we can expect to reduce the number of illnesses attributable to distribution systems by 3 to 7 annually. We believe our distribution system illness estimate is very conservative, based on a reduction of only one low pressure event per year, and therefore believe the potential for illness reduction may be similar for both improved water treatment and improved distribution system management. Assumed protozoa risk category more conservative? The cost implications of using the quick reference in Table 1 may be high, as the log credit requirements may be conservative. Some high level decision makers in the Ministry of Health believe most places in New Zealand do not exceed a 4 log protozoa credit requirement (Michael Taylor, pers. comm. August 2009), yet many WTPs are currently being upgraded to a 5 log protozoa removal. Water suppliers should consider 12-month cryptosporidium testing, which costs approximately $20k. The catchment risks may be lower than Table 1 suggests. Problem 3: Treatment over catchment protection Protozoa barrier increases costs and wastes For Step 3, most water suppliers build more infrastructure to ensure log credit provided ≥ log credit required; they consider plant upgrade options rather than reduce catchment risks. Yet by addressing only one side of the equation, water suppliers are missing opportunities to reduce broader public health and environmental risks through catchment protection options. Furthermore, providing a higher log credit treatment also typically increases the materials used; wastes, by-products, and emissions produced; and capital and operation and maintenance costs; and in essence increases catchment risk. Opportunities for environmental protection By providing more log credits, water suppliers increase the resources required to protect public health for the long term. An alternate way of making sure log credit provided ≥ log credit required, is to reduce catchment risks. Table 1 suggests that catchment risks can be reduced by reducing the intensity of farming or moving it out of the catchment altogether. Most water suppliers would avoid this alternative at all costs because it would likely involve negotiations and land purchase. Yet this move has been successful in other parts of the world. In the US, every dollar invested in catchment protection saves several dollars in treatment expenditure (Pearce 2001). New York City (NYC) does not filter the surface water supplied to nine million people; it is one of the largest unfiltered drinking water systems in the world (DEC



2004). In 1995, New York State, upstate communities, NYC, and the Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) committed $US250 million to avoid a $US6 billion WTP with annual costs of $US300 million (Mertz). The $US250 million was invested in 355,000 acres of land in the Catskills, providing incentives for catchment protection, and educating the public. There may be additional environmental and economic benefits to reducing distribution risks relative to treatment risks. When a water supplier repairs pipes in the distribution system, the potential for contaminant intrusion reduces, thereby reducing public health risks. At the same time, the level of leakage in the network reduces, conserving water. When less water is abstracted, less water is treated and distributed. By reducing leakage, a water supplier can reduce public health risks, improve conservation, reduce chemical and power usage, reduce the volume of sludge by-products produced, and reduce ongoing operational costs. HOW TO COMPLY WITH DISCHARGE CONSENT CONDITIONS A typical WTP has two main options for sludge handling: (1) Send the sludge back to the source surface water; and (2) Capture the sludge on site and dispose of on or off site. Discharge consent conditions typically do not allow the first option. Within the second option, if enough land is available and the water table is sufficiently deep, sludge can be stored in large ponds, then applied to land or desludged after a number of years. However, if land is not available or the water table is shallow, the sludge can be stored in a balance tank and either desludged by sucker truck, thickened on site with the dry sludge carted to landfill, or piped to the WWTP. PROBLEMS WITH CURRENT DISCHARGE CONSENT COMPLIANCE Water suppliers’ discharge consent compliance results in a lack of economic and environmental efficiencies for the following reasons: 1. Water suppliers do not assess the environmental benefits of complying with discharge consent conditions and therefore do not know if they will improve overall environmental health. a. Diverting sludge from the river to a WWTP or landfill may require significant capital and operational expenditures, and producing additional wastes, byproducts, and emissions. b. By avoiding soft path or collaborative options we may be missing opportunities for enhanced environmental protection. 2. There is a focus on point source pollution, which may be negligible relative to non-point source pollution Problem 1: Understanding of overall environmental health Discharge consent compliance increases costs and wastes When sludge is stored in a balance tank and either desludged by sucker truck, thickened on site and carted to landfill, or piped to a WWTP, the environment is affected in the following ways: 1. Desludged by sucker truck. Sucker trucks use fuel and produce emissions. 2. Thickened and carted to landfill. This option requires power and chemical dosing for a thickener, and the trucks that cart away the dried sludge use fuel and produce emissions.



3. Piped to WWTP. This option may require power in pumping to the WWTP, and additional power and chemicals will be consumed at the WWTP. To date no one has compared the environmental effects of various sludge handling approaches. Opportunities for environmental protection Constructing and running sludge handling facilities can be costly. Even for small towns, sludge handling facilities can cost in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. For those sums, there are likely to be more cost effective environmental protection initiatives, yet no analysis to investigate which initiatives could produce equivalent benefits. In New York, for example, the governor committed US$1.25 million to nine water quality projects (DEC 2004), including phosphorous reduction through natural dairy cattle feed management plans; pharmaceuticals monitoring; and research and school education programs correlating land use to drinking water contaminants . Problem 2: Point source pollution relative to non-point source pollution Although it is practical to control point source pollution through discharge consents, there has been little analysis in New Zealand that compares the effect of point source pollution, such as water treatment sludge by-products, on stream health, relative to the effect of non-point source pollution, such as agricultural runoff. DWSNZ-DISCHARGE CONSENT: UNSUSTAINABLE VICIOUS CYCLE? Implicitly, DWSNZ compliance for surface water supplies triggers the need for discharge consents. From my own experience, many low-turbidity surface waters in New Zealand serving small communities do not comply with DWSNZ. According to Table 1, surface waters should be treated to a minimum 3-log protozoa removal. Water suppliers generally select filtration processes for 3-log protozoa removal because they perceive the alternatives to have unacceptable safety risks. Filtration processes produce sludge by-products, which regional councils typically do not allow in waterways. In addition to the new filtration processes, water suppliers must install sludge handling processes. Table 3 shows the basic treatment options for surface waters according to DWSNZ. Only the 3-log catchment has treatment options (disinfection) that do not produce sludge. Soon many small communities will attempt to comply with DWSNZ; they will also need to build sludge handling facilities. Figure 1 shows a preliminary decision tree for water suppliers to comply with DWSNZ (protozoa) and discharge consent conditions. Table 3. DWSNZ treatment options for surface waters Basic treatment 3 log options 1 Filtration 2

Disinfection

4 log

5 log

Filtration (enhanced)

Filtration plus disinfection

Sludge produced? Y N

RECOMMENDATIONS To ensure efficient public spending and environmentally sustainable solutions in New Zealand, the Ministry for the Environment should promote research, and collaboration between regional



councils and water suppliers, to identify more cost effective environmental improvements. We recommend the following to water suppliers and the wider community: Water suppliers:

1. Assess catchment risk Table 5.1a DWSNZ

0-2-log

3-log

4-log

5-log

2. Review treatment options and assess capital, O&M, and environmental costs of treatment options

Disinfection - Capital costs - O&M costs - LCA / energy use

Filtration - Capital costs - O&M costs - LCA / energy use

Filtration + run to waste - Capital costs - O&M costs - LCA / energy use

Filtration + disinfection - Capital costs - O&M costs - LCA / energy use

3. Will treatment process produce sludge? 4. Is sludge harmful to stream or aquatic life? 5. Can sludge be treated through low impact, low cost methods such as additional retention time?

Sludge produced?

Y Sludge harmful to aquatic life? Y Low impact, low cost methods for removing ‘harm’?

N N Sludge handling facilities not required; no further analysis required

N

Can process change to N produce no or nonharmful sludge?

6. Can the water treatment process be changed to produce less or no sludge? 7. Assess total capital, O&M, and environmental costs of sludge handling options

Y For low impact alternative identify: - Capital costs - O&M costs - LCA / energy use

8. Is this the most cost effective project for equivalent environmental benefits?

Most cost effective environmental protection initiative?

Y For process change identify: - Capital costs - O&M costs - LCA / energy use

For sludge diversion / handling options identify: - Capital costs - O&M costs - LCA / energy use

N

Y 9. Add total water Water treatment & Divert funds to more cost effective treatment and total sludge sludge handling costs environmental initiatives handling capital costs. 10. Repeat Steps 1-9 for next lowest If Total Cost(X log) - Total Cost(X-1 log) >> Cost (crypto sampling) Then catchment risk. If difference greater Undertake crypto sampling than costs of crypto sampling & Otherwise, use Table 5.1a testing, undertake sampling.

Figure 1. Sludge treatment decision tree 1. Confirm catchment risk category by sampling for cryptosporidium. Lab test costs of $20,000 compare favorably to the costs of most 1-log protozoa barrier increases.



2. Assess the capital and operational costs and environmental life cycles associated with UV, ozone, and chlorine dioxide disinfection as alternatives to filtration. 3. Explore cost-sharing frameworks with other catchment users. Many water suppliers’ sources are polluted by upstream catchment activities so must treat water, and then divert treatment by-products to protect downstream users. Catchment users affecting water quality should contribute to water suppliers’ capital and running costs. Regional councils: Allow cost-sharing options from water suppliers and upstream polluters. 1. Identify non-point source polluters and non-compliant discharges and estimate the loads and effects on downstream water quality. 2. Prioritise asset and non-asset catchment protection measures according to economic and environmental benefits. Ministry of Health: Provide guidance on the level of catchment protection required to assess surface waters at less than 3-log protozoa risk. Ministry for the Environment: Promote research into cost effective catchment protection. To the research community we offer the following topics: 1. Which drinking water supply system components contribute to the greatest number of outbreaks and endemic waterborne diseases in New Zealand? 2. Are there low cost, low impact ways of removing toxicity from alum sludge? 3. Is point source pollution significant relative to non-point source pollution? 4. Are ‘soft-path’ approaches more cost effective than asset-based solutions? CONCLUSIONS This paper has provided an initial discussion on the issue of increasing log-credits provided or reducing catchment log-credit required through changing management practices within the catchment following a soft-path approach to water management. We explore the potential viability of this solution and find that both in financial and environmental terms, reducing catchment log-credit requirement might be a more beneficial solution, low in capital outlay, operational costs, and environmental impact. One of the challenges of following this line of action is that the existing management structures, legal frameworks, as well as the people managing and designing them, are more comfortable with hard solutions. We believe that water suppliers, regional councils, the Ministry for the Environment, and the research community all have a role to play in exploring more sustainable options for providing safe drinking water. REFERENCES Besner, M, Broséus, R, Lavoie, J, Giovanni, G, Payment, P & Prévost, M 2010, 'Pressure Monitoring and Characterization of External Sources of Contamination at the Site of the Payment Drinking Water Epidemiological Studies', Environmental Science & Technology, pp. 703-708.



Craun, G, Calderon, R & Nwachuku, N 2003, 'Causes of waterborne outbreaks reported in the United States, 1991–1998', Drinking Water and Infectious Disease, Establishing the Links, Hunter P, Waite M and Rochi E (eds.). CRC Press and IWA Publishing, Boca Raton, Florida, pp. 105–117. DEC 2004, Governor announces funding for New York City watershed, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. Hunter, Paul R, Chalmers, Rachel M, Hughes, S & Syed, Q 2005, 'Self-Reported Diarrhea in a Control Group: A Strong Association with Reporting of LowPressure Events in Tap Water', Clinical Infectious Diseases, vol. 40, no. 4, pp. e32-e34. Mertz, T New York City depends on natural water filtration, RAND, viewed 4 July 2010, . MfE 2007, Proposed national standard for sources of human drinking water, Resource Management Act Section 32, Analysis of the costs and benefits, Ministry for the Environment Wellington. MfE 1991, Resource Management Act 1991, New Zealand Parliament. MoH 2010, Annual Review of Drinking-Water Quality in New Zealand 2008/09, Ministry of Health, Wellington. MoH 2008a, Drinking-water Standards New Zealand 2005 (Revised 2008), Ministry of Health, Wellington, New Zealand. MoH 2008b, Health (Drinking Water) Amendment Act 2007, New Zealand Parliament. Nygård, K, Wahl, E, Krogh, T, Atle Tveit, O, Bohleng, E, Tverdal, A & Aavitsland, P 2007, 'Breaks and maintenance work in the water distribution systems and gastrointestinal illness: a cohort study', International Journal of Epidemiology, vol. 36, pp. 873-880. Pearce, D 2001, 'How valuable are the tropical forests?'. Risebro, H, Doria, M, Andersson, Y, Medema, G, Osborn, K, Schlosser, O & Hunter, P 2007, 'Fault tree analysis of the causes of waterborne outbreaks', Journal of Water and Health, vol. 05. Robak, A & Bjornlund, H 2009, Costs and benefits of compliance: New Zealand Drinking Water Standards, Rotorua, New Zealand. Schuster, C, Aramini, J, Ellis, A, Marshall, B, Robertson, W, Medeiros, D & Charron, D 2005, 'Infectious disease outbreaks related to drinking water in Canada, 1974-2001', Revue canadienne de santé publique, vol. 96, no. 4.



StatsNZ 2010, Estimated resident population of New Zealand, Statistics New Zealand, viewed 5 July 2010, .



SUSTAINABILITY: SEEING THROUGH THE EYES OF FARMERS. Rosales Carreón Jesús*, Jorna René # *, Faber Niels *, van Haren Rob* * Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, The Netherlands # Frisian Akademy (KNAW, Leeuwarden) Corresponding author: [email protected] Landleven 5, 9742 AK Groningen T: (00) (31) 050-363-3372 F: (00) (31) 050-363-2330 ABSTRACT In the Netherlands, the agricultural sector is facing a major challenge, which is the transition towards a sustainable agriculture. The discussion thus far has been at a conceptual, macro level. A more deep approach to sustainability involves examining who is using this term, and how. For example, how does sustainability operate at the farm level? Hence, it is relevant to investigate the knowledge processes of the main actors in agriculture: farmers. For knowledge processes, we mean the processes that (individual) farmers undertake to understand the information they receive. These processes are divided in two domains, static domain, which deals with the way an individual structures knowledge; and dynamic domain, which deals with the thinking processes of an individual. Our study proposes to explore the two domains of knowledge held by farmers in the Netherlands. Individual structures of knowledge will be explored through cognitive mapping exercise. Thinking patterns will be explored through protocol analysis. Both the cognitive maps and the protocol analysis have to be analyzed to reveal commonalities and differences among farmers. This manuscript contributes to research on knowledge of sustainability, which has barely penetrated discussion within the agricultural sector. It shows cognitive mapping and protocol analysis might be effective techniques for investigating the meaning of a subject like sustainable agriculture. KEYWORDS Agriculture, Cognitive Mapping, Knowledge, Sustainability, Protocol Analysis. INTRODUCTION Several authors have revised the conceptual development of the sustainability concept (Ikerd, 1990; Hansen, 1996; Mebratu, 1998; Faber, 2006). There is some consensus in the fact that the different definitions discussed in the literature include - at different extent- three basic elements: the natural environment, economical profits and the welfare of the society. Elkington (1994) grouped these elements and coined the concept of the “Triple Bottom Line or 3P’s” (People, Planet, and Profit). Judgments according to a sustainability standard are not absolute, but require a contextual matter (Norman and MacDonald, 2004). In other words, to talk about sustainability or sustainable development requires adapting the concept to a context. We will situate the discussion over sustainable development in the context of agriculture. Given the importance of


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agriculture as the ultimate provider of food, fiber, and shelter for human population, no sector has such an important role in moving towards a sustainable future (Smith and McDonald, 1998). Despite significant scientific and technological achievements to increase agricultural productivity, there has been much less attention to some of the unintended social and environmental consequences of human achievements. Agriculture is one of the key sectors to prevent environmental damage projected to 2030 (OECD, 2008). The European Union -and therefore the Netherlands- now places less emphasis on production than in the past and more on maintaining quality and on the roles and incomes of individual farmers. Agriculture is a system manipulated by humans, and then in accordance with Faber (2006), the functioning of the agricultural system is correlated with the behavior of the humans on whom it depends. Hence, the sustainability of the agricultural system depends on the knowledge of the farmers who determine the system’s functioning. If the meanings over sustainable development are already diverse, some questions arise: What do farmers mean by sustainable? Moreover, what knowledge do they have concerning sustainability? In terms of research in the agricultural context, studying farmers’ worldviews seems useful to answer these questions. In the next section, we will explain the approach that will allow us to answer these questions. KNOWLEDGE APPROACH Knowledge is something that individuals have and exhibit in all kinds of activities. In the Western world, philosophical debates about knowledge in general start with Plato's formulation of knowledge as "justified true belief.” Although this formulation is questioned, we will not discuss the history of philosophy on knowledge. Our understanding of knowledge is cognitive oriented which considers that knowledge builds on information that is extracted from data (Boisot, 1998). Fundamental to the study of knowledge is the notion that individuals hold that knowledge within structures within their cognitive or mental system. According to Jorna (2007), the crucial distinction between information and knowledge is interpretation. This activity is carried out by people as an information processing system (Newell and Simon, 1972) consisting of cognitive architecture (mental representations) and processes on these representations. Internal representations or mental objects reflect the content of a person’s knowledge and are located in cognition and ultimately in the brain. In studying human cognition, researchers examine human cognitive processes through mental representation. The cognitive structure or architecture is the first core element in a theory of human cognition (Newell, 1990). The concept of cognition offers the link to study the knowledge structure that people use to make assessments, judgments, or decisions involving opportunity evaluation and venture creation and growth. The second core element is the content, available in terms of mental representations, cognitive representations, and models. According to Jonson-Laird (1983) individuals construct mental models (mental representations) of the world and they do so by employing, mostly tacitly, mental processes. There are recursive mental processes that enable human beings to understand


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discourse, to form mental models of the real and the imaginary and to reason by working on and manipulating such models. A mental model consists of three steps: a) Translation of some external processes into an internal representation (in terms of words numbers and other symbols). b) Derivation of other symbols by some sort of internal process. c) A new translation of the derivate symbols into action. Jonson-Laird exemplifies the difference of models among different persons. In discussing views on TV’s he discerns: a) An average TV viewer: A box with images b) A person who repairs TVs: A cathode ray firing electrons at a screen c) A circuit designer: Electrons as negatively charged particles moving on a magnetic field. For the discussion on sustainable agriculture, we use the same perspective of mental models. Individuals and organizations incorporate their own understanding of sustainable agriculture into various aspects of their operations. We can exemplify how people may think about soil: a) An average person: It forms a thin layer over the surface of the earth. b) A fertilizer’s supplier: It serves as a substrate supporting plant growth and as a nutrient reservoir. c) An agricultural engineer: It is essential for crops. It is not only a support for plant roots, but also the site of many physical, chemical, and biological processes. We argue that in order to explore the meaning of sustainable agriculture a knowledge approach can be used. McElroy (2008) identifies knowledge as the key factor regarding sustainability. Such knowledge approach focused on the farmers is hardly found among the literature on sustainable agriculture. Laukkanne (2000) explores the notion of sustainability of the structure and dynamics of different municipalities in Finland as social entities and micro economies. In New Zeeland, Byrch et al. (2007) explored the meaning of sustainable development held by business leaders who promote sustainability. Regarding agriculture, Boone Jr. et al. (2007) reported the knowledge that extension educators have concerning the dimensions of sustainable agriculture. Farmers can be considered as human information processing systems. Human decision-making involves two components Newell and Simon (1972). First, we have the farmer personal characteristics. In this respect, there have been studies regarding the characteristics (or traits) that influence farmers in order to adopt (or not) specific farming practices (Lauwere et al. 2004). In second place, his personal knowledge processes regarding farming practices. For knowledge processes, we mean the processes that (individual) farmers undertake to understand the information they received. These processes are divided in two domains, static domain, which deals with the way an individual structures


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knowledge; and dynamic domain, which deals with the reasoning processes of an individual (Figure 1).

Farmer’s knowledge domain

External Information

Static Domain Dynamic Domain Farming Practices Figure 1. Farmer’s knowledge processes STATIC DOMAIN OF KNOWLEDGE The study of the static domain allows identifying the associated concepts with sustainable agriculture. We have developed a list of 31 concepts expected to be in farmer’s mental models (Table 1). These concepts refer to one of the 3P’s (People, Profit, Planet). The concepts are used to elaborate a cognitive map. Cognitive mapping is a technique, which has been used to structure, analyze, and make sense of accounts of problems. The theory suggests that individuals make sense of the world in order to predict how the world will be in the future and to decide how individuals might intervene in order to achieve what they prefer within that world (Kelly, 1955). Table 1. Concepts used to elaborate cognitive maps CONCEPTS 3 P’s Soil Fertility Planet Crop Rotation Scheme Nitrogen Phosphorous Fertilization Plan Soil Nutrient Analysis Soil Pathogen Analysis Soil texture Organic Matter Water (irrigation) Energy (fuel) Nature Crop Residue Production Cost Profit


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Sales Price Revenue Crop Yield Product Quality Market Training (Study Group) Consumer’s opinion Colleagues’ Opinion Supplier’s opinion Local Community Public opinion Family Future generations Regulation Wellbeing Independent Advisor Legislation (CAP)

People

DYNAMIC DOMAIN OF KNOWLEDGE The dynamic domain allows distinguish mindset orientations as well as reasoning patterns. In the literature of sustainability, it is found that a systemic approach is needed if one studies sustainable issues. The study of (sustainable) agricultural systems should be based on an approach that allows looking for connections among all aspects of these systems (an overall and integrated or, what we also call systems, approach). A systems approach provides an overview and manner of understanding how the different relationships on a specific context work. A system can be technically defined as a set of components functioning together as a whole. A systems view allows isolating a part of the world and focusing on those aspects that interact more closely than others do. System thinking is a discipline for seeing wholes. It is a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of change rather than snap shots. The core of systems theory is based on the understanding of the concept of feedback that shows how actions can reinforce or counteract (balance) each other (Weinberg, 1975). Based on system’s theory in Table 2, we present concepts that can be used to distinguish a sustainable oriented mindset from the mindset of classical farming. Table 2. Elements of a sustainable oriented mindset on an agricultural system Less sustainable oriented mindset More sustainable oriented mindset Focus only in specific units of the system Focus on the Big Picture of the system (holism) Focus on “straight” chains in the system Focus on interconnections within the system (Lack of) focus on different interactions Focus on feedback loops among units Working on isolation or on a hierarchical Cooperation manner. Short time perspective (here and now) Long time perspective (there and then)


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In Table 3, four levels of evaluation for every element included in Table 2 are presented. The criteria are possible to identify on a protocol given by an interviewee. Protocol analysis is a research method that elicits verbal reports from research participants. Protocol analysis is used to study thinking in cognitive psychology and cognitive science. It has also found further application in the design of surveys and interviews (van Someren et al., 1994). Table 3. Evaluation of Reasoning Patterns Elements Level 1 Level 2 Interviewee… Interviewee… Big Picture/ does not see a has a difficulty Holism dilemma. to see the lacks interest. dilemma. does not see solution for the dilemma. Time Horizon does not see focuses on any problem. events that affect here and now. Interconnections lacks predicts results. information. identifies benefits or downside costs. is aware of concepts related to one of the 3P’s.

Feedback

identifies only the symptoms of dilemma. does not find relationships.

identifies personal consequences. connects elements of the system as one way (causeeffect).

Cooperation

knows a part of thinks about the system the possibility perfectly. of other opinions.

Level 3 Interviewee… designs a plan to tackle the dilemma.

Level 4 Interviewee… describes several plans to tackle the dilemma.

focuses on events on the near future.

focuses on events that affect there and then. predicts how to overcome troubles. balances benefits and reframed view of costs. is aware of concepts related to the 3P’s. identifies consequences for others. represents a causal relationship among more than two elements. shows flexibility to adapt other points of view into his own view.

predicts possible troubles. balances benefits vs. downside costs. is aware of concepts related to two of the 3P’s. identifies consequences for others. represents a circular causal relationship between two elements. takes other’s points of view


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EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN The knowledge of sustainability in agricultural activities from several farmers will be evaluated. Farmers are expected to construct maps of their understanding of sustainable agriculture. Individuals will be given a written introduction where the next question is posed: “Thinking about your main product, which factors are the most relevant while you are planning your next sowing season?” We expect that farmers that are prone to sustainable have more complex maps than those who do not favor sustainable practices. We have also developed an instrument to gauge the systemic qualities of a farmer’s thinking. Farmers will solve agricultural-based problems and what they have to say as they think aloud will be recorded. We have designed problem scenarios life-based and we will assess their responses according to the concepts listed in Table 3. The stories are designed to gauge the systemic elements in the farmer’s mindset. Once the interviewees solve the two tasks we may use qualitative analysis to elaborate an interviewee’s mindset profile. Table 4 shows a sample profile for a farmer that has a sustainable mindset. Table 4. Sample profile of a sustainable mindset Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Big Picture/ Holism Time Horizon V Interconnections V Feedback V Cooperation

Level 4 V

V

CONCLUSIONS The goal of developing sustainable agriculture is the responsibility of all participants in the system, including farmers, laborers, policymakers, researchers, retailers, and consumers. Each group has its own part to play, its own unique contribution to make to strengthen the sustainable agriculture community. Agriculture has been considered through the years as having the specific function of production where the main objective is to produce commodities (food and fibers) and the main goal has been to increase the land productivity in order to provide more food and to have more economic profit. This model drove achievements of knowledge in Europe after World War II and the spread of the green revolution beginning in the 1960s. Nowadays there is increasing recognition that the current agricultural model requires revision. This leads to rethinking the role of knowledge in achieving development and sustainability goals within agriculture. We propose a knowledge approach to study sustainable agriculture. Knowledge as a criterion for guiding agriculture as it responds to change. We believe that considering the concepts that farmers include in each model of farming practice will help the transition from a conventional to a sustainable agriculture. The different worldviews in classical and sustainable agriculture can and should be studied and evaluated more intensively. In this paper, we have presented a cognitive approach towards sustainable agriculture. Through this approach, we aim at identifying concepts linked with sustainable agriculture (static


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knowledge domain). We believe, this approach also allow us to get some insights in the way of reasoning among the interviewees (dynamic knowledge domain). REFERENCES Boisot M. (1998). Knowledge assets securing competitive advantage in the information economy. Oxford University Press, New York. Boone Jr. H. N., Hersman M. E.., Boone A.D. and Gartin A.S. (2007). Journal of Extension. Knowledge of sustainable agriculture practices by extension agents in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. 45 (5):1-11. Byrch C., Kearins K., Milne M. and Morgan R. (2007). Sustainable “what”? A cognitive approach to understanding sustainable development. Qualitative Research in Accounting and Management. 4(1):26-52. Elkington, J. (1994). "Towards the sustainable corporation: Win-win-win business strategies for sustainable development." California Management Review 36 (2):90-100. Faber N. (2006). Knowledge in sustainable behaviour. Using knowledge-based decision support systems for the improvement of sustainability. Dissertation. University of Groningen. Hansen J.W. (1996). Is agricultural Sustainability a useful concept?. Agricultural Systems 50:117-143. Ikerd J.E. (1990). Agriculture’s search for sustainability and profitability. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation. 45:18-23. Johnson-Laird (1983). Mental models. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, MA. Jorna R. (2007). Knowledge dynamics. A framework to handle changes in types of knowledge. In 15 Years of Knowledge Management. Schreinemakers J.F. and van Engers T. (eds.). Ergon Verlag, Germany. Kelly, G. (1955) The Psychology of Personal Constructs. Norton, New York. Laukkanen M. (2000). Cognitive maps of entrepreneurship: describing policy maker’s subjective models of local development. ICSB World Conference, Brisbane, Australia. Lele S. (1991). Sustainable development: A critical review. World Development. 19 (6): 607-621. Lauwere, H Drost, AJ De Buck, AB Smit, LW (2004). Proceedings of the XVth International Symposium on Horticultural Economics and Management. Berlin, Germany.


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McElroy M.W. (2008). Social footprints. Measuring the social sustainability performance of organizations. Dissertation. University of Groningen. Mebratu D. (1998). Sustainability and Sustainable Development: Historical and Conceptual Review. In the Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 18:493-520. Newell A. (1990). Unified theories of cognition. Harvard University Press. Newell A. and Simon H. (1972). Human problem solving. Prentice Hall. Norman W. and MacDonald C. (2004). Getting to the bottom of “triple bottom line”. Business Ethics Quarterly. 14:243-262. OECD-FAO (2008). Agricultural outlook 2008-20017. Highlights. OECD Publications. Paris. Smith C. and McDonald G. (1998). Assessing the sustainability of agriculture at the planning stage. Journal of Environmental Management. 52:15-37. Sojka R.E., Upchurch D.R., Borlaug N. E. (2003). Quality soil management or soil quality management: performance versus semantics. Advances in Agronomy. 79:1-67. van Someren M., Barnard Y., Sandberg J. (1994) The think aloud method. A practical guide to modeling cognitive preocesses. Academic Press, London,. Weinberg, M.G. (1975). An Introduction to General Systems Thinking. WileyInterscience Publication, New York.


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Presenter: Rule, Bridget Other authors: Boyle, Dr. Carol Institution: University of Auckland Postal address: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland Mail Centre, Auckland 1142 Telephone: 027 327 3327; fax: 09 373 7462; email: [email protected] Title: Challenges for sustainable infrastructure development in small island developing states Stream: Resilient Societies Abstract The ongoing viability of many small island developing states (SIDS) is under pressure from factors including climate change, sea level rise, and their usually high dependence on imported food, energy, and manufactured goods. Sustainable, resilient development is a necessity for SIDS if they are to ensure their ability to maintain and improve their populations‟ quality of life in the face of these challenges. Infrastructure that supports sustainability is therefore a key element to SIDS development, but SIDS have historically had major issues with infrastructure development, centring on economies of scale as they tend to have small, dispersed populations, combined with few natural resources and limited funds. Pinpointing exactly what can be done to improve SIDS‟ resilience through sustainable development requires first pinpointing their main sustainability and development issues in greater detail, and looking at salient characteristics country by country. Examining SIDS in this manner reveals that they have as many characteristics setting them apart from one another as they have in common. As such, while SIDS‟ present and historical development issues have common threads, their future opportunities and pathways to resilient, sustainable societies may be very different. In determining whether and how individual SIDS could become sustainable, the concept of urban metabolism may be useful through measuring SIDS‟ endemic ability to support their populations. Introduction Small island developing states (SIDS) have a unique set of development issues, most of which relate to issues of scale and isolation (Kerr, 2005). The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in particular describes SIDS as low-lying coastal countries characterised by small population, a lack of resources, remoteness, susceptibility to natural disasters, excessive dependence on international trade, and costly public administration and infrastructure (UNDESA, 2003); this essentially reflects their high vulnerability, a sentiment echoed by the IPCC in its Fourth Assessment (Mimura et al., 2007). The excessive dependence on international trade referred to by the UNDESA is a major concern for SIDS, because much of this trade simply fulfils basic human needs, such as food – for example, Cape Verde imports over 80% of its food, mostly rice (CIA World Factbook, 2010a)–, manufactured goods, and energy, with an almost total dependence on imported fossil fuels for all energy needs, including electricity (through diesel generators) and transport (Krumdieck and Hamm, 2009). At present, due to the availability of foreign goods and pursuit of a Western lifestyle, SIDS tend to maintain a large imbalance between imports and exports. For example, the Tongan balance of trade (exports and re-exports less imports) has steadily worsened year on year since 1987, leaving a $264 million Palaga (approximately US$130 million) deficit in 2007 (Tongan Ministry of Finance and National Planning, 2008). As oil 1 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 686


prices have generally been rising in recent years, shipping is only growing more expensive, yet as shown by Tonga, there is no decline in the demand for imported food and other goods. Adding to this lack of resources, SIDS often rely on limited groundwater for their water supply (Liu, Lin et al., 2006; Diamantopoulou and Voudouris, 2008). Saltwater intrusion is becoming a major problem for islands as extraction from freshwater lenses exceeds regeneration, and there are indications that sea level rise may accelerate salt intrusion (Mimura et al., 2007). To this end, sustainable infrastructure issues remain a core focus for the UN-OHRLLS (the UN‟s SIDS special interest group), with climate change, freshwater resources, land resources, energy resources, transport, sustainable capacity development, and sustainable production and consumption featuring among 19 „priority areas‟ identified in 1992 (UN-OHRLLS, 2005). Since then, the Barbados Programme of Action (developed and adopted in 1999) narrowed the focus of SIDS development further down to six areas needing urgent attention: these include climate change (adaptation to climate change and rising sea levels); freshwater resources (preventing freshwater deficits as demand grows); energy (developing renewable energy, particularly solar, to lessen dependence on imported oil); and tourism (managing the growth of this sector to protect environmental and cultural integrity) (UN-OHRLLS, 2005). In addition, island economies often lack diversity as they are based on very few resources, making them very sensitive to any changes in those industries. As SIDS often have distinctively large Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) relative to their landmasses, fishing and fishery licensing are vital to the economies of many SIDS (Kerr, 2005). Tourism often accounts for a large part of GDP, as island states make up 27 of the 31 countries of the world who generate more than 20% of their GDP through travel and tourism (Kerr, 2005). Aside from this, foreign aid and remittances feature heavily in contributors to SIDS‟ GDP. For example, 20% of Cape Verde‟s GDP comes from remittances sent by Cape Verdeans living overseas (CIA World Factbook, 2010a), and this level of support is not uncommon. External subsidies and preferential trade agreements are also widespread in island economies, especially among overseas territories and former colonies (Kerr, 2005). Describing SIDS At this point it may be helpful to consider the individual countries labelled SIDS, rather than the group as a whole, to understand why SIDS have been grouped as such. The UNOHRLLS lists 52 SIDS, of which 38 are UN members and 14 are non-members, or are associate members of the regional commissions. However, the definition „small island developing state‟ appears to be a loose one; many of the SIDS listed by the UN-OHRLLS lack one or more of the descriptions implied by the title „SIDS‟. Table 1 sets out the SIDS (as listed by the UN-OHRLLS) and their characteristics (i.e., how well they fit the grouping „small island developing state‟), in the context of determining their vulnerability, as per the UNDESA description (UNDESA, 2003). For this purpose, „small‟ has been somewhat arbitrarily defined as being less than 20,000 square kilometres in continuous landmass (0.01% or less of the total land area of the world), and having a population of less than 1 million (0.015% or less of the total population of the world) (CIA World Factbook, 2010b). „Island‟ has been defined both literally (whether unconnected to a continental landmass) and in terms of remoteness (the distance to the nearest continental landmass). The concept of „developing‟ lies on a spectrum and as such is difficult to accurately define, so human development index (HDI) (UNDP, 2010) and net official foreign development aid per capita 2 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 687


Table 1: Classification of SIDS. Data sources: UN-OHRLLS (2010), CIA World Factbook (2010b), the World Bank (2010), and UNDP (2010). Small SIDS (as listed by UNOHRLLS) American Samoa Anguilla Antigua and Barbuda Aruba Bahamas (The) Bahrain Barbados Belize British Virgin Islands Cape Verde Comoros Cook Islands Cuba Dominica Dominican Republic Fiji French Polynesia Grenada Guam Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti

Island

Less than 20,000 km2 continuous landmass

Population of less than 1 million

       X     X  X     X X X

            X  X       X

Not connected by land to a continent

       X      

Developing

Distance from main port to nearest major landmass (km)(a) 2711

State

Foreign aid received per capita (US dollars)(b)

HDI 2007(c)

N/A(d)

N/A

Overseas territory (US); non-UN(e)

823

N/A

N/A

Overseas territory (UK); non-UN

709

$66.57

33

-$114.15

0.868 +

N/A

Level of autonomy

 Domestic autonomy (under Netherlands)

$14.78

+

0.856

44

$80.69

+

0.895

388

$37.29

0.903

0

$54.75

0.772

867

N/A

N/A

646

$340.77

0.708*

315

$52.22

0.576*

 

2777

N/A

N/A

Domestic autonomy (free association: NZ)

235

$9.04

0.863

517

$308.04

0.814

land border

688

$10.18

0.777

    X X

1887

$68.10

   

land border

132

0.741 +

3832

$2,304.12

N/A

157

$293.57

0.813

2399

N/A

N/A

0

$65.50

0.396*

0

$201.50

0.729

814

$60.06

0.532*

    Overseas territory (UK); non-UN

Overseas territory (France); non-UN

 Overseas territory (US); non-UN

  


Page 688


Small Jamaica Kiribati Maldives Marshall Islands Mauritius Micronesia (Federated States of) Montserrat Nauru Netherlands Antilles New Caledonia Niue Northern Marianas Palau Papua New Guinea Puerto Rico Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Samoa São Tomé and Principe Seychelles Singapore Solomon Islands Suriname Timor-Lesté (East Timor) Tonga Trinidad and Tobago

             X          X   

Island X    X         X X          X  X

            

Developing

State

677

$20.05

0.766

3539

$267.67

N/A*

611

$157.17

0.771*

  

3732

$940.77

N/A

Domestic autonomy (free association: US)

876

$42.14

0.804



2131

$930.10

N/A


660

N/A N/A

N/A N/A

Overseas territory (UK); non-UN

2867 78

$115.75+

N/A

Domestic autonomy (under Netherlands)

1416

$2,279.07+

N/A

Overseas territory (France); non-UN

2358

N/A

N/A

Domestic autonomy (free association: NZ)

2266

N/A

N/A

Domestic autonomy (political union: US)

1695

$1,452.45

N/A


land border

659

$45.97

0.541



         X   

735

N/A

N/A

724

$234.19

0.838

362

$54.13

0.821

292

$206.24

0.772

2752

N/A

0.771*

268

$219.45

0.651*

1085

$141.22

0.845

0.7

N/A

0.944

1479

$407.12

0.610*

0

$177.00

0.769

585

$214.66

0.489*

1873

$252.49

0.768

31

$6.47

0.837



Overseas territory (US); non-UN

           


Page 689


Small Tuvalu US Virgin Islands Vanuatu

Notes:

(a.) (b.) (c.) (d.) (e.) * +

  

Island   

  

Developing 2932

N/A

N/A *

788

N/A

N/A

1801

$245.30

0.693*

State  Overseas territory (US); non-UN



Values shown are the shortest distance from any of the major ports (if more than one) to any point on a continent or other major landmass (including Borneo, Japan, Madagascar, and New Zealand). Dark pink: < 1 km; Light pink: 1 to 50 km; Light green: 50 to 500 km; Dark green: > 500 km. 2004–2008 average based on available data (not all years are available for all countries), in current US dollars (2010). Dark pink: no aid received; Light green: $0 to $200 received; Dark green: > $200 received. HDI categories: Dark pink: very high development; Light pink: high development; Light green: medium development; Dark green: low development. N/A: Not available. non-UN: is not a UN member but may be an associate member of the regional commission. Denotes also a UN-classified least developed country (LDC). Denotes only 2004 data available.

(World Bank, 2010) have been used, in keeping with the context of assessing vulnerability. „State‟ is defined by level of autonomy, ranging from fully dependent territories to fully independent nations (CIA World Factbook, 2010b). Table 1 reflects that depending on how each parameter is defined, many SIDS are lacking in one or more aspects of their definition. Yet, no matter their size, neighbours, socioeconomic success or degree of autonomy, one aspect shared by all the entities on the UN list is the risk posed by climate change, as revealed by their presence as a single group („small islands‟) in the IPCC‟s Fourth Assessment (Mimura et al., 2007). Climate change Climate change is a particularly insidious threat to SIDS, as they account for some of the most vulnerable areas in the world, especially if sea levels rise as the IPCC predicts: between 18 and 59 centimetres by 2100, excluding glacial melting (Mimura et al., 2007). Other estimates come up much higher: a team at NASA Goddard assume that feedback mechanisms will accelerate ice-melt in Antarctica and Greenland, resulting in a global sea-level rise of up to 25 metres by 2100; and even more conservative models that ignore feedback scenarios estimate the rise at 1.4 metres by 2100 (Vince, 2009). Other anticipated effects are increases in extreme weather frequency and intensity, meaning it is likely that there 5 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010

Page 690


will be more cyclones (and they will tend to be stronger), longer intervals between rainfall causing droughts in the dry season, and heavier storms in the wet season leading to flooding; stronger and more frequent storm surges are expected, along with changes in temperature which may make it more difficult for indigenous species to compete with introduced species (Mimura et al., 2007). Worse still, higher sea temperatures combined with agricultural (nutrient) and industrial (chemical) pollution are causing coral bleaching and seagrass degradation, two habitats vital for fisheries and tourism as well as general ecosystem health (Mimura et al., 2007). But there is reason to believe that SIDS have a reasonable chance of surviving climate change. A recent study showed that of 27 Pacific atolls, the most low-lying and therefore most vulnerable type of island, the rate of growth by natural build-up of dead corals of the islands studied outpaced the rate of sea level rise (two millimetres per year) over the 60-year study period (Webb and Kerch, 2010). Although the rate of sea level rise is believed to be accelerating (Zukerman, 2010) this study indicates that the geographical areas perceived as being the most vulnerable to climate change still have a fighting chance of maintaining their way of life. However, if sea levels rise this century as much as some models predict, islands whose highest point is less than 25 metres (or not much higher than that, depending on the terrain) have a lower chance of surviving sea level rise over the next 90 years. However, a rise of 25 metres is considered to be the worst case scenario with most models showing significantly less than that, and the vast majority of SIDS exceed 25 metres in height at their highest point (CIA World Factbook, 2010b), the exceptions being the Marshall Islands, the Maldives, and Tuvalu. The main issue with sea level rise, then, lies with the fact that the majority of SIDS infrastructure is very close to the coast, including roads, airports, and population centres (especially capital cities, which are often based around the main port). In the Caribbean and Pacific Islands, more the 50% of the population live within 1.5 km of the coast (Mimura et al., 2007). Other risks SIDS face While they can vary widely in geographical terms, SIDS share underlying economic, social, and environmental risks. Being so highly dependent on a small number of industries for GDP, especially tourism, leaves them vulnerable to reduction in GDP income if the cost of living on (or transport to) these islands becomes so high that it is unaffordable for tourists to visit. On the other hand, tourists seek the kind of untouched natural environment that will become increasingly rare if SIDS‟ most common environmental issues (such as reduced biodiversity, coral reef degradation, and chemical and nutrient pollution) persist (Mimura et al., 2007), which could further undermine earning potential from tourism and thus SIDS‟ abilities to be economically self-sufficient. Appropriate infrastructure would address these issues and help to ensure the near future of this industry, because although tourism may not turn out to be sustainable in the long run, for now it is such an important revenue stream that it must be protected as SIDS look to develop other industries to make themselves more resilient to external forces. The tourism revenue stream is even more important now because SIDS are also facing considerable infrastructure costs as they mitigate and deal with the effects of climate change. The more intense tropical cyclones, flooding and storm surges, and sea level rise are likely to be among the most destructive and costly events, requiring significant investment in infrastructure to maintain SIDS populations against these changes (Mimura et al., 2007). In 6 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 691


addition, SIDS are still often very dependent on subsistence agriculture, agricultural exports, and fisheries for their livelihood, and as they are currently operated, these areas are very likely to be adversely affected by climate change (Mimura et al., 2007). SIDS are usually dependent on expensive imported fertilisers to maintain their agricultural yields (for example, see Tongan Ministry of Finance and National Planning, 2008). A paradigm shift towards resilience-focussed agriculture and fisheries management will help to protect these sources of food and revenue, also avoiding the social risks inherent in poverty and food shortages. However, the continual population loss experienced by many SIDS, especially those in the Pacific, presents a more immediate social risk. The average migration out of SIDS is 4.45 per 1000 people; this rises to 16.68 for the Pacific region alone (calculated from available data from CIA World Factbook, 2010b). This demographic loss gets much worse for SIDS in that it tends to be the more educated people who are leaving: the median emigration rate of tertiary educated people as a percentage of the total tertiary-educated population is 62.6%, with upper and lower quartiles at 26.9% and 78.2% respectively (calculated from available data from World Bank, 2010). If SIDS cannot retain their most educated people, they will have difficulty developing alternative industries to diversify their economies. Environmental risks underpin many of the economic and social risks to SIDS. Climate change may be the most notorious environmental risk facing SIDS, but it is certainly not the only one. Freshwater scarcity continues to pose a problem for people dependent on rainfall and groundwater for their water supply, and saltwater intrusion into groundwater supplies may get even worse as sea level rises (Mimura et al., 2007). Freshwater lenses are also prone to faecal contamination because of inadequate sanitation practices (Menzies, 2005). Soil erosion due to modern farming techniques is impacting SIDS‟ agricultural potential, and beach erosion due to an increase in the number and intensity of storm surges and „king tides‟ threatens housing, coastal infrastructure, and tourism resources (Mimura et al., 2007). Overexploitation of fisheries has implications for the long-term viability of these resources and for the oceanic ecosystem (Kerr, 2005). One of the biggest and most harmful environmental problems on SIDS is waste management, as significantly more material comes into the country than leaves, which often results in solid waste being burned, buried in unsanitary conditions, or dumped, usually in lagoons or mangroves (Menzies, 2005). On many islands there is no space or infrastructure for sanitary landfills or recycling facilities, and even where landfills exist, shallow soils mean that freshwater lenses are very vulnerable to contamination (Mimura et al., 2007). The question of whether SIDS should strive for sustainable development, then, is not difficult to answer. It is a question of the viability of continuing to live on these islands, and of the degree of self-sufficiency and quality of life for the inhabitants of SIDS. Sustainable development It has been suggested that sustainable development may be expressed in terms of resource depletion: that pollutant emission must not exceed the earth‟s assimilative capacity; the rate of use of renewable resources must not exceed their regeneration rate; and the rate of use of non-renewable resources must not exceed the rate at which renewable substitutes can be found (Barrett, Sexton and Green, 1999). More specifically, Baccini (1997) suggests that a system‟s “metabolism” is sustainable if the demand for essential „mass goods‟ including water, biomass, construction materials, and energy, can be satisfied indigenously by more 7 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 692


than 80% in the long term. Baccini notes that “the degree of self-sufficiency, arbitrarily chosen with respect to a set of essential goods, determines the ecologically-defined border of the (urban) system.” By this definition, sustainability requires that the demand for these essential goods which cannot be satisfied indigenously may be met by the „external market‟ in such a way that the global resource capitals are not reduced significantly, so long as any emissions or other outputs are not burdens for future generations (Baccini, 1997). With current shipping and air transport technologies, the latter would completely isolate SIDS from the outside world, but this does not seem like a fair or appropriate response. Neither do SIDS have the capability to develop sustainable transport technologies themselves; so for now, it makes sense to work towards sustainable development through Baccini‟s first criterion, by sourcing at least 80% of mass goods locally. Baccini acknowledges that the figure of 80% may be chosen arbitrarily, as determined by the ecological boundary of the system. He also applies it solely to urban systems, so if this principle is to be applied to SIDS, it needs to be determined exactly what capacity for production each island has, and what demand for consumption. Urban metabolism Urban metabolism is a mass balance analysis applied to measuring the inputs and outputs of an urban system, usually water, energy, food or nutrients (Faerge, Magid, and Penning de Vries, 2001; Baker et al., 2001), materials (Hammer, Giljum, and Hinterberger, 2003), or a combination thereof (Baccini, 1997; Ngo and Pataki, 2008; and Sahely, Dudding, and Kennedy, 2003). Because urban metabolism is based on the mass balance principle, it could theoretically be applied to any bounded area, and the results would show an average of the “metabolism” of the bounded system: its consumption, production, and waste. As SIDS have easily defined geographic boundaries, urban metabolism may be a useful method of establishing these inputs and outputs, and thereby SIDS‟ potential for sustainability. Combined with a physical needs analysis and GIS mapping, it may be possible to examine concentrations of resource flows and reveal underlying infrastructural requirements, enabling scenario planning for basic infrastructure to support sustainability (water supply, wastewater treatment, solid waste management, transportation, and energy supply). If it is to be applied to SIDS in the context of sustainable development, urban metabolism is not without its own challenges. For example, re-exports (goods that are shipped to one location with the intention of shipping them on to another location) can contribute significantly to SIDS‟ GDP but are not part of the indigenous metabolism, therefore it is not clear to which country‟s metabolism the transportation of re-exported goods belongs. Similarly, tourism is an essential component of most SIDS‟ economies, but due to SIDS‟ remoteness their tourists travel a long distance (usually by air) to reach their destination. SIDS reap the benefits of this long-distance travel but it is not within their means to make this transport more efficient, so do the emissions and resources used belong to the SIDS or the tourists‟ home countries? Finally, it is apparent that the availability of certain resources will change over the years, as will demand for resources. Changes that are likely and/or predicted include population increases, urbanisation, land use changes, and inundation of some areas as the sea level rises, and there will certainly be others. Any model developed using urban metabolism would have to be either dynamic or grounded in at least two temporal positions, to allow for predicted changes and comparison with the present situation. 8 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 693


Conclusion To remain viable in the long-term, SIDS must become much more self-sufficient in supplying their populations with basic human needs by introducing sustainable agricultural, water supply, waste management, and energy systems, based on appropriate infrastructure. Infrastructure that supports sustainability is not only vital to maintaining and improving the quality of life of SIDS inhabitants; to conserve their vital income streams from tourism and fisheries revenues, SIDS will have to ensure that infrastructure is designed to preserve and encourage biodiversity and protect their environments from the impacts of overexploitation. The principle of urban metabolism shows potential as a tool for indicating the needs and production capacities of SIDS, and therefore whether and how they can become selfsufficient. Used together with GIS, it may be possible to analyse both natural and anthropogenic consumption and production patterns, thereby revealing the characteristics and locations of infrastructure that would support sustainability on SIDS. References Baccini, P. (1997) “A city's metabolism: Towards the sustainable development of urban systems.” Journal of Urban Technology, 4(2), 27-39. Barrett, P. S., M. G. Sexton, and L. Green. (1999) “Integrated delivery systems for sustainable construction.” Building Research and Information, 27(6), 397-404. Baker, L. A., D. Hope, Y. Xu, J. Edmonds, and L. Lauver. (2001) “Nitrogen balance for the Central Arizona-Phoenix (CAP) ecosystem.” Ecosystems, 4, 582-602. CIA World Factbook. (2010a) “Cape Verde: Economy. Economy – Overview.” Retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/cv.html on 18 June 2010. CIA World Factbook. (2010b) “The World Factbook.” Data retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html on 11 June 2010. Diamantopoulou, P. and K. Voudouris. (2008) “Optimization of water resources management using SWOT analysis: the case of Zakynthos Island, Ionian Sea, Greece.” Environmental Geology, 54, 197-211. Færge, J., J. Magid and F. W. T. Penning de Vries. (2001) “Urban nutrient balance for Bangkok.” Ecological Modelling, 139(1), 63-74. Hammer, M., S. Giljum, and F. Hinterberger. (2003) “Material flow analysis of the city of Hamburg.” Presented at the workshop Quo vadis MFA? Material Flow Analysis – Where Do We go? Issues, Trends and Perspectives of Rearch for Sustainable Resource Use, 9-10 October, Wuppertal. Kerr, S. A. (2005) “What is small island sustainable development about?” Ocean and Coastal Management, 48(7-8), 503-524. Krumdieck, S. and A. Hamm. (2009) “Strategic analysis methodology for energy systems with remote island case study.” Energy Policy, 37(9), 3301-3313. Liu, C.-W., C.-N. Lin, et al. (2006) “Sustainable groundwater management in Kinmen Island.” Hydrological Processes, 20(20), 4363-4372. 9 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 694


Menzies, S. (2005) “Year of action against waste – special report: The true cost of Tonga‟s waste.” SPREP. Available at http://www.sprep.org/article/news_detail.asp?id=214. Mimura, N., L. Nurse, R. F. McLean, J. Agard, L. Briguglio, P. Lefale, R. Payet and G. Sem. (2007) “Small islands.” In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden, and C. E. Hanson (Eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 687-716. Ngo, N. S. and D. E. Pataki. (2008) “The energy and mass balance of Los Angeles county.” Urban Ecosystems, 11, 121-139. Sahely, H. R., S. Dudding, and C. A. Kennedy. (2003) “Estimating the urban metabolism of Canadian cities: Greater Toronto Area case study.” Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 30(2), 468-483. Smyth, A. J. and J. Dumanski. (1993) “FESLM: An international framework for evaluating sustainable land management.” World Soil Resources Report, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Tongan Ministry of Finance and National Planning. (2008) “Kingdom of Tonga annual foreign trade report for 2007.” Series number SDT: 31-28. Current publications available at http://www.spc.int/prism/tongatest/Publication/publication.htm. UNDESA. (2003) “World statistics pocketbook: Small island developing states.” United Nations, New York. UNDP. (2010) “Human development reports: 2009 report country factsheets (alphabetically).” Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/alphabetical/ on 04 June 2010. UN-OHRLLS. (2005) “Mauritius strategy for the further implementation of the programme of action for the sustainable development of small island developing states.” Port Louis, Mauritius, 10-14 January. Available at http://www.un.org/special-rep/ohrlls/sid/MIM/Aconf.207-crp.7-Mauritius%20Strategy%20paper.pdf. UN-OHRLLS. (2010) “List of small island developing states.” Retrieved from http://www.un.org/special-rep/ohrlls/sid/list.htm on 26 May 2010. Vince, G. (2009) “Paradise lost: Islanders prepare for the flood.” New Scientist, 2707, 37-39. Webb, A. P and P. S. Kerch. (2010) “The dynamic response of reef islands to sea-level rise: Evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the Central Pacific.” Global and Planetary Change, 72(3), 234-246. World Bank. (2010) “The World Bank Data Catalog.” http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog on 17 June 2010.

Data

retrieved

from

Zukerman, W. (2010) “Shape-shifting islands defy sea-level rise.” New Scientist, 2763, 10.



Transitions to Sustainability - Are we confident about the IPCC climate change predictions for the future? Russell, Dr, John1 and Long, Mr, Kevin2 1. Department of Civil Engineering and Physical Sciences La Trobe University, Box 199 Bendigo, Victoria, 3550 Australia. +61 3 5444 7347 +61 4 17 191 143m Email: [email protected] 2. K. E. V. Engineering, Bendigo, Victoria, Australia ABSTRACT: In a quest for a „Transition to Sustainability‟ this paper, in the tradition of engineering enquiry, revisits the fundamental assumptions under-pinning the IPCC‟s pronouncements which concern the relationship between increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases emitted to the atmosphere and corresponding projected average global temperature rises. The complexity of this issue, together with the stated uncertainty of outcomes, is re-examined in the light of natural phenomena (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, La Nina, Barycentre and reducing Sunspot activity) which now combined have commenced global cooling. This paper concludes that atmospheric carbon reduction measures are restrained until the trend in global warming or cooling is beyond doubt.

1. INTRODUCTION The authors are concerned about the apparent divergence of recently observed average global temperatures from those that were predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the subsequent carbon dioxide reduction strategy which is underpinned by these predictions. This concern has become urgent since the recent ascendency of important natural climate drivers such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, La Nina, Barycentre and reduced Sunspot activity which now combined have commenced global cooling. The authors are unsure whether the major cyclical natural climate temperature variations, caused by the onset of the above dominant climate drivers are masking the predicted „enhanced greenhouse effect‟ or if the „enhanced greenhouse effect‟ hypothesis is overstating the heating relationship between carbon dioxide and the temperature of the Earth‟s atmosphere. The authors suspect that there is a notable reduction of the „enhanced greenhouse effect‟ and a correspondingly greater influence by the natural climate drivers. This paper revisits the genesis of „Global Warming‟ in the light of late 20th and early 21st Century scientific findings which ascribes the majority of the measured global warming over the period of the Industrial Revolution to the „enhanced greenhouse effect‟ and not to natural climate variability. The authors of this paper have chosen to refer to the writings of Houghton and Bolin - two pivotal proponents of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) whose careers span the last three decades of the 20th Century and who have guided the formation and execution of the IPCC‟s founding science, findings, pronouncements and mitigation strategies. The authors‟ concerns surround the apparent failure of the initial scientific hypothesis and its unforeseen implications to the carbon dioxide reduction strategies. The first proponent is, “Sir John Houghton CBE, FRS co-chairman of the Science Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; chairman of the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution; and a member of the British Government‟s Panel on Sustainable 1



Development. He was Chief Executive of the Meteorological Office from 1983 to his retirement in 1991. He is the author of The Physics of Atmospheres and Does God Play Dice? , and he has published numerous papers and contributed to many influential research documents.” (Houghton, 1994). His book referenced in this paper is entitled, “GLOBAL WARMING – The Complete Briefing. An investigation of the evidence, the implications and the way forward.” The second proponent is Bert Bolin, Professor Emeritus in the Department of Meteorology at the University of Stockholm, Sweden. He is a former director of the International Institute for Meteorology in Stockholm, and former Scientific Advisor to the Swedish Prime Minister. He was Chairman of the IPCC from 1988 to 1997. His book is entitled, “A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change – The Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”. (Bolin, 2007) Both Sir John Houghton and Emeritus Professor Bert Bolin have articulated the phenomena of Global Warming to the world. Sir John said in his book, “As chairman or co-chairman of the of the Scientific Working Group I have been privileged to work closely with hundreds of scientific colleagues in many countries who readily gave of their time and expertise to contribute to the IPCC work. For this book I have drawn heavily on the 1990 and 1992 reports of all three working groups of the IPCC.” (Houghton, 1994:8) 2. UNDERPINNING SCIENCE AND ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE IPCC REPORTS Sir John Houghton sets out very clearly in chapters 1 and 2 of his book „The problem of Global Warming‟, the „Uncertainty and response‟, „ How the Earth keeps warm‟, The greenhouse effect‟ and „The enhanced greenhouse effect‟. The logic of 20th Century physics as applied to enhanced greenhouse gases is clearly explained, however, no calculations are offered for the predicted 2.5oC rise in Global temperature by 2100 as a result of a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration levels and allowing for feedback effects. A summary of his explanation of the „enhanced greenhouse effect‟ is shown in figure 1. (His FIG. 2.8)

FIGURE 1. Showing the solar energy balance for enhanced greenhouse warming and a rise in the Earth’s surface temperature for a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere with an accommodation of the feedback processes. (Houghton, 1994:26) 2



The above relationships and outcomes derived from these calculations underpin „in principle‟ all the IPCC‟s subsequent predicted average global temperatures. In figure 1 above (Houghton‟s FIG. 2.8c) the carbon dioxide concentration has been doubled thereby reducing the thermal radiation from the Earth‟s surface and atmosphere by 4 watts/m 2. The energy balance would be restored if the temperature of the Earth‟s surface and the lower atmosphere increase by 1.2oC: when the anticipated „positive and negative feedbacks‟ (increased water vapour, changes in clouds etc) are taken into account the average surface temperature becomes 2.5 o C as shown in (d) and the solar energy balance returns to equilibrium. In discussing positive and negative feed-backs Houghton states, “The situation is much more complicated than this simple calculation… Suffice it to say here that the best estimate at the present time of increased average temperature of the Earth‟s surface if carbon dioxide levels were to be doubled is about twice that of the simple calculation: 2.5oC.” (Houghton, 1994) Table 1 (Houghton‟s Table 5.1) is reproduced below. From Table 1 it is clear that a small increase in low level clouds beyond + 3% can have a considerable cooling effect on the average global surface temperature compared to the assumed warming effect of doubling the carbon dioxide concentration. Further, in the discussion on ocean-circulation feedbacks he states, “The oceans act on the climate in three important ways. Firstly, as we have already noted, they are the main source of water vapour which, through its latent heat of condensation in clouds, provides the largest single heat source for the atmosphere. Secondly, they possess a large heat storage capacity compared with the atmosphere, in other words a large quantity of heat is needed to raise the temperatures of the oceans only slightly…”. (Houghton, 1994:68) Table 1. Showing Houghton’s assumptions about greenhouse gases and clouds and how they are expected to influence average Global temperature outcomes.

Sir John Houghton was well aware of the importance of the comparison of model results with observations when considering the temperature rise over the last 140 years when he said, “…the most obvious point to note about the record is the significant variability which occurs over a period of a few years to decades, which probably arises from natural changes within

3



the climate system… Because of the variability, it is difficult to draw any strong conclusions from the trend in the observed record to date.” Sir John continued by quoting from the executive summary of the 1990 IPCC report. “The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.” and he continues “in other words, we need to wait a number of more years before the global warming signal due to the increase of greenhouse gases stands out clearly above the natural climate variability.” It is now almost two decades since Sir John Houghton wrote the above statement and this is the raison d‟être for this paper. 3. A COMPARISON WITH OBSERVED DATA - A DECADE OR MORE LATER Following is a comparison of some of Houghton‟s main predictions with recent average global temperature observations to 2009.

FIGURE 2. Showing the observed rapidly increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in the Earth’s atmosphere. (Houghton, 1994) Figure 2 (Houghton‟s FIG. 3.3) (a) shows the rapid increase in carbon dioxide concentrations in the last fifty years. The carbon dioxide concentrations in the last „decade or more‟ to 2010 have continued on the same upward projection as to that with which is shown in the figure and does not require further confirmation here. Figure 3 (Houghton‟s FIG. 6.1) shows the observed temperatures from 1860 to about 1989 together with the IPCC‟s predicted change in global average temperature under a „business as usual‟ scenario, (IPCC IS 92a) (First Assessment Report 1990). The middle curve is the IPCC‟s best estimate of the change (Medium) with the upper (High) and lower (Low) curves indicating the estimated range of uncertainty. The three curves correspond to the „climate sensitivities‟ of 4.5, 2.5 and 1.5o C respectively. The business-as-usual‟ emission scenario from IPCC IS 92a is very similar to the „A2‟ scenario used in current Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). (IPCC, 2007) To minimise any confusion with quoted temperatures it is to be noted that the IPCC has adopted the average global temperature methodology jointly prepared by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (HadCRUT) and not that of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) nor the NOAA National Climate Data Center NCDC). HadCRUT3 average global temperatures are based on 1961 to 1990 base period whereas GISS temperatures relate to a 1951 to 1980 base period. All three use much the same input observations, 4



however, James Hansen, a leading scientist at GISS, states in a recent paper on the issues of differences that, “We discuss sources of uncertainty in the temperature records and provide some insights about the magnitude of the problems via alternative choices for input data and adjustments to the data.” (Hansen et al, 2010) GISS average global temperatures are nearly always noticeably higher for recent temperatures. Superimposed on this figure is a triangular envelope, shown blue, representing the three past IPCC temperature projections: the First Assessment Report (FAR) 1990, Second Assessment Report (SAR) 1995, and the Third Assessment Report (TAR) 2001). The current Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) 2007 is shown as a red zigzag line representing the Special Report on Submission Scenarios (SRES) (IPCC, 2000).

FIGURE 3. Showing the observed and predicted rises in temperature from 1860 to 1993 where the solid black line represents the best estimate of the observed global average temperature. The subsequent discrete temperature observations (HadCRUT3), 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 have been added as little red dots to this figure, these small dots appear like fly specks at the end of the blue triangular envelope. Superimposed on this figure for further comparison is the ‘Model Projections Compared with Observations’ reproduced from the IPCCs Fourth Assessment Report (Figure TS.26) which is shown as a zigzag red line. This superposition makes clear the comparison between the IPCC, IS 92a scenario (Medium curve) and the most recent average global temperature observation (2009) which shows the temperature rise is about only 55% or 0.7C of what was predicted and is in fact below the lower projection curve (Low) and so outside the IPCC‟s lower estimated range of certainty. The predicted rise corresponding to 2009 is approximately 1.3oC. Hence, what are the implications of this divergence particularly if these temperatures are now responding to natural climatic variation forces as 5



discussed later in section 6? One implication is that the IPCC current carbon dioxide reduction strategies (Bolin, 2007) projecting into the future are a gross over-estimation with lesser predicted warming and lesser sea level rises. Also the superposition makes clear the impact of the IPCC‟s declared starting point adjustments as, “These projections were adjusted to start at the observed decadal average value in 1990.” (IPCC, 2007:Figure TS.26). This adjustment lowered the starting point in 1990 by 0.25 oC and moves the starting point of the original IPCC (FAR) „business-as-usual‟ (IPCC IS 92a) from the middle (Medium) curve which was the IPCC‟s “best estimate of change” to the lower (Low) curve which was the lower estimated range of uncertainty. (Houghton, 1994, 80) In addition, in figure 3, it can be seen that the current IPCC (AR4) 2007 projections represented by the red zigzag line lies on the Low estimate range of uncertainty of the original prediction which means the current IPCC 2007 future temperature predictions for the year 2100 have been reduced by about 1.0oC. Figure 4 shows the IPCC‟s „Model Projections Compared with Observations‟ and is included to assist with the comparison and to provide more detail; this figure shows in much more detail the triangular envelope of past IPCC temperature projections. The multi-coloured triangular shape

FIGURE 4. Shows the Model Projections Compared with Observations including the recent average annual global temperature (HadCRUT3) for 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 inserted by the authors and shown as crosses. Note these four recent temperature observations fall below the Orange Line (Committed Warming) – GHG emissions held constant at 2000 levels. 6



represents the temperature projections in the first, second and third IPCC assessment reports. The multi-modelled mean projections of the fourth assessment report is shown as four emission scenarios that extend from 2000 to 2025. Their respective uncertainty ranges are shown on the right hand side axes of the figure. The average global temperatures (HadCRUT3) are maintained on the Commonwealth of Australia‟s Bureau of Meteorology website (BOM, 2007) and the four most recent temperatures, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009, have been added by the authors to the figure and are shown as crosses. From the above it is clear these four recent temperatures are much lower than the predictions and in fact all lie below the „Commitment‟ projection and below the lower projection curve (Low) and are outside the IPCC‟s estimated range of uncertainty. The divergence of the observed average global warming temperature from the IPCC‟s prediction raises question as to the validity of the „enhanced greenhouse effect‟ hypothesis and consequently to the prudence of continuing with the IPCC‟s atmospheric carbon dioxide reduction strategy as it is currently proposed. (Bolin, 2007)

FIGURE 5. Showing (Y) and (Z) the rate of decadal temperature change for the last 20 and 100 years respectively (added by the authors) to be consistent with the rates over the last 10,000 years and are consistent with the recent IPCC’s AR4 findings. Houghton referred to the rate of change of average global temperature, as a measure, to illustrate that in the 21st Century the „enhanced greenhouse effect‟ (rate of temperature rise) could be shown to be exceptional when compared to the last 10,000 years. In figure 5 (Houghton‟s FIG. 6.2) Houghton plotted „business-as-usual‟ emission scenario (IPCC IS 92a) can be seen above the curve and shown as an (X). The shaded aqua area below the line represents the typical decadal rates of temperature change over the past 10,000 years. In contrast to the „business-as-usual‟ plot the authors have plotted the rates of change of the average global temperature for the last 20 and 100 years (Y) and (Z) respectively on figure 5. As a comparison, the authors found that the rate of change of the average global temperature over the last 20 and 100 years to be within the shaded area and so consistent with the rates of the last 10,000 years. The IPCC‟s 2007 recent rate-ofchange findings are consistent with the authors‟ findings. (IPCC, 2007:FIG. TS.6) 4. FINDINGS FROM A COMPARISON WITH OBSERVED DATA A comparison of the four most recent average global temperature observations with the IPCC predictions (FAR) 1990 indicate a „notable‟ departure from the global warming scenario that was 7



predicted. This departure raises serious questions concerning the scientific hypotheses and assumptions underpinning the predictions of future temperatures and the prudence of continuing with the carbon dioxide reduction strategy (for temperature mitigation alone) as is currently proposed for global temperature control. Findings are; 1) The increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the past two decades is as predicted. 2) (i) The IPCC in adjusting its predictions in 2007 (IPCC, 2007:203) to the observed average global temperature in 1990 have lowered the starting point for further temperature projections by about 0.250C. (ii) The IPCC (AR4) 2007 predictions now follow the lower (Low) curve of uncertainty which is a significant shift from the IPCC‟s “best estimate of change” (IPCC IS 92a) which was the middle (Medium) curve. (iii) The recent average global temperatures for 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 are much lower than the IPCC 2007 (AR4) predictions. (iii) The recent average global temperatures for 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 are all below the IPCC‟s 2000 prediction for warming in the hypothetical case where greenhouse gases and aerosols have been held at 2000 levels (i.e. below the orange „curve‟ in figure 4). 3) The rise in average global temperature, as predicted two decades ago, has not eventuated and the IPCC‟s best estimate of change for the „business-a usual‟ scenario (IPCC IS 92a) and more recent SRES estimates are a gross over-estimate of average global temperature rise. In fact, the observed temperature rise (HadCRUT3) is below the „lower curve‟ of the IPCC‟s „estimated range of uncertainty‟. Furthermore the last decade, on average, has progressively cooled not heated. 4) The rate of temperature rise, when applied to the two decades since the FAR, is consistent with the typical rates estimated for the past 10,000 years and does not support the predicted rate of change for the next Century under the „business-as-usual‟ „enhanced greenhouse effect‟ scenario. 5) All of the above findings indicate the original scientific hypotheses and assumptions as expounded by Sir John Houghton and associated with the modelling of the Earth‟s atmosphere are either masked by natural climate variation phenomena or an overestimate. This implies such models should not be used as tools to predict future „warming‟ until temperature observations confirm model predictions. 5. ADDRESSING ‘GLOBAL WARMING’ UNCERTAINTIES From the above findings it is clear that IPCC‟s computer models of the Earth‟s atmosphere are, at present, incapable of modelling future global temperatures with confidence. Earlier, in Table 1 it was shown how Houghton drew attention to the sensitivity of any model to the percentage of lowlevel clouds. Since that time later versions of the computer models now incorporate many additional forcing agents (clouds, prescribed ice, ocean, volcanic activity, sulphates, aerosols, overturning circulation, interactive vegetation, carbon cycle, freshwater and chemistry) in an attempt to better model the Earth‟s atmosphere. These added complexities and difficulties were anticipated by an IPCC working group who stated in 2006; “The reasonable accuracy of AOGCM (atmospheric-ocean general circulation models) forcing at TOM (top of model - troposphere) and the significant bias at the surface together imply the effects of increased WMGHGs (well-mixed greenhouse gases) on the radiative convergence of the atmosphere are not accurately simulated.” (Collins et al, 2006) (Emphasis added) Clearly from the analysis in this paper the models have not been successful. 8



The question that needs to be asked is, “what is the reason for the divergence between the prediction and observation?” Is it the limitations of 20th Century physics to model the phenomena of the „greenhouse effect‟ in the Earth‟s atmosphere or is it the level of understanding of feedbacks and complexities which at present are beyond being fully understood? Or is it natural climate variability phenomena masking a much smaller „enhanced greenhouse effect‟? One thing of paramount importance is the radiative balance. 5.1 Radiative Balance – key importance – IPCC energy balance approach The IPCC outlines its approach to „radiative forcing‟ as follows: “Radiative forcing is a measure of how the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system is influenced when factors that affect climate are altered. The word Radiative arises because these factors change the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation within the Earth‟s atmosphere. This radiative balance controls the Earth‟s surface temperature. The term forcing is used to indicate that Earth‟s radiative balance is pushed away from its normal balance.” (IPCC, 2007:136) 5.2 Radiative Forcing – Models, feedbacks and limitations Houghton‟s Table 1 shows how assumptions about levels of radiative forcing provide changes in the average global surface temperature. For different combinations of greenhouse gases and clouds a range of temperature changes can be predicted. It is of interest to note the sensitivity of clouds, be it high or low level clouds, that cause variations in the predicted average global temperature. Note that in figure 1c doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration with no additional feedback raised the temperature 1.2oC, whereas with the „best estimate of feedbacks‟ the temperature rises an additional 1.3oC. Fifteen years later the radiative forcing components have become more complex and uncertain as depicted in the IPCC‟s Figure 2.20 (AR4, 2007:203) reproduced as figure 6. This figure shows both the anthropogenic and natural direct solar radiative forcing components (Watts/m2), spatial scale, and the level of scientific understanding (LOSU). From this figure it is clear that a major effort has been made to quantify the positive and negative feedback mechanisms and identify the levels of uncertainty associated with the various agents. It is important to note the total aerosol radiative forcing, which includes an estimate for clouds, is a „low‟ level of „scientific understanding‟ depicted in the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) by the skewness and large standard deviation. This PDF does not include the solar radiative forcing of approximately +0.12 Watts/m2 which is a relatively small contribution to the net radiative forcing shown as +1.6 Watts/m2. It is important to note Houghton determined the radiative forcing of the „enhanced greenhouse effect‟ to be about +4 Watts/m2 (Houghton, 1994:26) which would appear now to be a gross over estimation and the reason for the subsequently high predictions for the future global temperatures, particularly since recent temperature observations have not supported the model predictions and there has been a continual rise in carbon dioxide levels. 5.3 Radiative Forcing – Water Vapour and Clouds – Emerging Science The level of scientific understanding concerning the radiative forcing of water vapour and cloud is low and contributes to the uncertainty of the net amount of radiative forcing. Emerging new science relates the level of cosmic rays entering the Earth‟s atmosphere to the formation of cloud forming nuclei: (Duplissy et al., 2010) more solar activity results in less cosmic rays entering the Earth‟s atmosphere and vice versa. Less cosmic rays produce less nuclei in the low level clouds which result in lessened cloud coverage. The overall effect is to increase solar radiation reaching the land and sea surface producing an overall warming effect. In the upper atmosphere the increased solar radiation produces a decrease in the reflectivity of the troposphere 9



which results in warming. These two effects combine and amplify the small observed increase in solar radiation by approximately six fold. (Friis-Christensen and Svensmark, 1997)

FIGURE 6. (IPCC’s Figure 2.20) Shows the Radiative Forcing Components. (IPCC, 2007; 203). Note the small solar irradiance and the high level uncertainty associated with both being critical to the overall net effect and shifting of the distribution curve of probabilities. 5.4 Solar Irradiance – The Sun and Emerging Science. The Sun and its Sunspot number and cycles have been studied for many centuries, however, it is only in the last twenty years there has been renewed research interest in the Sun, its solar activity, variations and particularly its effect on the Earth‟s climate. This interest has emerged because of the apparent correlation between the amplitude and occurrence of Sunspots to known periods of global warming and cooling which is shown in figure 7. (Lean, 2010) This figure relates the Maunder and Dalton Minima and the Modern Maximum to both Sunspot number and various reconstructions of Total Solar Irradiation. A Sunspot number of 80 is a notional threshold considered by some below which the Earth cools and above which it is warmed due to increased solar irradiation. Another reason for the interest is to aid space exploration. The use of space era 10



observations over the past three decades has greatly enhanced the understanding of the Sun and its interaction with the Earth and the Cosmos.

FIGURE 7. Shows the relationship between the Maunder and Dalton Minima and the Modern Maximum to both Sunspot number and various reconstructions of Total Solar Irradiation (TSI). (Reproduced from Lean, 2010) Note the variations in the estimates of TSI. 6. NATURAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY – COOLING TENDENCIES The IPCC has relied on the „enhanced greenhouse effect‟ hypothesis and increasingly complex climate computer models to predict future average global temperatures: unfortunately this process has discounted natural climate variability with having a major influence on global temperature. The Earth‟s climate is defined by its relationship with the Sun and other cosmic bodies, particularly the influences of the larger solar system planets. About 70% of the solar insolation received by the Earth is influenced by the three Milankovitch Mechanisms; Earth‟s eccentricity, precession and axis tilt. (Russell, 2008) The IPCC acknowledges the above and the multiple time scales of natural phenomena operating simultaneous in the troposphere (IPCC, 2007, 68): this is the modelling dilemma. 6.1 Natural Climate Variations – „Barycentre‟ of the Solar System and the Sun‟s Centre of Mass The planet‟s moving centre of angular momentum, the Barycentre, as it rotates around the nucleus of the Sun (and the disturbances it causes) is used to infer solar activity and to calculate periods of warming and cooling of the Earth. Landscheidt predicted a “...considerable weaker activity...” for Sunspot 23 two decades ago and “...a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030...”. (Landscheidt, 2003) 6.2 Natural Climate Variations – Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO) are decadal to inter-decadal atmospheric temperature variations (occurring in 30 to 40 year cycles) which are most likely due to oceanic processes, particularly the extra-tropical ocean influences where heat anomalies are subducted and reemerge in response to changes that occur in the ocean gyre. (IPCC, 2007) Figure 8a shows the PDO and the annual time series for the Annual PDO Index. (ibid, 2007) Figure 8b shows the most recent (2009) PDO Index tending downwards. (Spencer, 2010) A comparison of these figures with the bold black line, depicting average global temperature, in figure 1 bears an 11



uncanny similarity to warming and cooling periods in the 20th Century. Given the recent PDO Index value, a negative Index, is probable for the next three or four decades.

FIGURE 8a. Shows the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Note the correspondence of the PDO with the warming (1900 to 1940 and 1979 to 1998) and cooling periods (1940 to 1979) during the 20th Century.

FIGURE 8b. Shows the inclusion of the most recent PDO Index and a downward trend line in 2009. Further observations are needed to confirm any trend. (Reproduced from Spencer, 2010)

6.3 Natural Climate Variations – ENSO – La Nina Cycle This year the El Nino Southern Oscillation in the Pacific Ocean has changed from a weak El Nino to a strong La Nina event. A deepening La Nina will reduce the projected magnitude of the average global temperature for 2010 (Hansen, 2010:21) and so contribute to global cooling. 6.4 Natural Climate Variations – Sunspots – Cycles- Decadal As discussed in section 5.4 sunspots are related to inter-centennial warming and cooling events and as such are used to predict future Sunspot cycle amplitude and length of cycle. These predictions assist in the planning of space exploration as sunspot activity is associated with electromagnetic storms which can interfere with communications, damage space craft and herald in changes to the Earth‟s climate. Figure 9 is a reproduction of the actual Sunspot numbers for Cycles 23 and 24 as of September 2010. It is of interest to note that National Aeronautical Space Administration (NASA) has progressively down-graded its Sunspot number for Cycle 24 from 140 to 65 about 115% since May 2006. David Hathaway a solar physicist at the National Space Science and Technology Centre (NSSTC) has predicted the Sunspot numbers to be 140 and 65 for cycles 24 and 25 respectively. These predictions are shown in figure 10 where the actual Sunspot number is shown in dark green (drawn in by the authors) and the prediction revised to the green dotted line. The recent prediction by NASA of a Sunspot number of 65 for Cycles 24 would indicate the onset of cooling. The minimum Sunspot number during the Dalton Minimum was about 25, refer to figure 7. It is of importance to note that Theodor Landscheidt predicted in the 1970‟s (using Barycentre analyses methodology) lower Sunspot numbers commencing in the 1990‟s (Landscheidt, 2003) and Abdussamatov predicted, in 2007, Sunspot numbers 80, 45 and 25 for Cycles 24, 25 and 26 respectively which would emulate a repeat of a Dalton Minimum. (Abdussamatov, 2008)

12



FIGURE 9. Showing the completed Sunspot Cycle number 23 and the predicted size of Sunspot Cycle number 24 that has been reduced in amplitude from 140 in May 2006 to 60 since September 2010.

FIGURE 10. Showing the observed Sunspot number in black, the predicted number by Hathaway (Red) and Dikpati (orange) in May 2006. The bold and dotted green lines (added by the authors) depicts the recent observations and the most likely predictions for cycles 24 and 25.

6.5 Climate Natural Variations – Cycles and trends in solar irradiation Judith Lean, a senior author cited twelve times in the IPCC AR4, has recently completed a „Focus Article‟ for John Wiley and Son entitled, “Cycles and trends in solar irradiance and climate”. She is funded by NASA and concludes her paper with the following statement: “As the only external climate forcing directly specified independently of climate models, solar irradiance variations promise a touchstone for advancing understanding of climate change. When climate models can reproduce the multiple, complex responses embodied in the empirical evidence, confidence will increase in their ability to simulate climate changes in response to other radiative forcings, including greenhouse gases.” These findings are similar to those of the authors of this paper who have independently found the shortcomings of the „parameterization‟ techniques of computer modelling being unable to cope with the complexities of natural climate variability‟s, at this time, and the need to consider the emerging solar irradiative science as a more direct and promising tool for the predictions of Earthy warming and cooling. 7. GLOBAL COOLING POSSIBILITY AND ITS IMPLICATION The observed average global temperature data for this decade is not confirming the IPCC‟s predicted relationship between increasing carbon dioxide levels in the Earth‟s atmosphere and their prognosis of global warming. A combination of natural phenomena that result in cooling will most likely be the dominant climate drivers to control the Earth‟s atmospheric temperature this decade. The implications of this possibility for the World‟s communities are significant since the IPCC is totally committed to a global atmosphere carbon reduction strategy to mitigate against global warming. Emeritus Professor Bert Bolin‟s book, “A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change – The Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.” will provide the reader with a full measure of the commitments. (Bolin, 2007) 13



8. SUMMARY 1) Recent observations of average global temperatures during the last decade are not conforming to the predictions of global warming as outlined by Sir John Houghton. 2) The scientific hypothesis, on which the „enhanced greenhouse effect‟ is based, is not supported by recent average global temperature observations. 3) Global warming has ceased early in the last decade. 4) The complexities of Earth‟s climate are beyond the current capabilities of modellers to model the „enhanced greenhouse effect‟ and produce reliable predictions of current or future average global temperatures. 5) The warming trend predicted by the IPCC of the Earth‟s temperature in the first decade of the 21th Century now appears to be in reverse and the Earth has entered global cooling as a result of the onset of cooling natural climate variables: at present this scenario seems more likely than global warming, 6) Future observations over the next decade will conclusively confirm one way or another whether there is global warming or global cooling. 7) Premeditative actions to mitigate predicted short-term global warming would be ill advised given the high level of scientific uncertainty. 8) Western science, its processes and subsequent politicization is on public trial together with the hypothesis of carbon dioxide dominated global warming. 9) Atmospheric carbon reduction measures should be restrained for at least a decade until the trend of average global temperature is known and has moved outside the natural climate variations experienced on Earth over the last 1200 years. 9. CONCLUSION It is concluded that atmospheric carbon reduction measures are restrained until the trend in global warming or cooling is beyond doubt. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We acknowledge the La Trobe University, Bendigo Christopher Poynton and Karl Reed for assistance and Caroline Schwab for making this paper possible.

REFERENCES:

Abdussamatov, H. (2008) The Sun Defines The Climate. Proceedings of KrAO, 2007, Vol. 103, No 4, p. 292 - 298. BOM, (2010) Bureau of Meteorology, Commonwealth of Australia Bolin, B. (2007) A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press Collins, W. et al (2006) Radiative forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases: estimates from climate models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Duplissy, J. et al. (2010) Results from the CERN pilot CLOUD experiment Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 16351647, 2010 Friis-Christensen, E. and Svensmark, H. (1997) What do we really know about the Sun-climate connection? Advances in Space Research, Volume 20, Issue 4-5, p. 913-921. Hansen, J, Reudy, R. Sato, M. and Lo, K. (2010) Global Surface Temperature Change (draft) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA Houghton, J. (1994) Global Warming – The Complete Briefing. Lion Publishing plc, Oxford. England Landscheidt, T (2003) New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming? Energy and Environment Vol. 14, Nos. 2 & 3, 2003 Lean, J. (2010) Cycles and trends in solar irradiance and climate. 2010 John Wiley and Son Volume 1, January/February 2010 Russell, J. (2008) Engineering the Global Thermostat Part B – Creating a Permaclimate Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science, Auckland, NZ, Dec 9-12, 2008. Spencer, R. (2010) http://drroyspencer.com/global-warming-background-articles/the 12/09/2010

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Saito, Dr., Osamu Assistant Professor Waseda Institute for Advanced Study, Waseda University 3-4-1 Okubo, Shinjuku, Tokyo 169-8555, JAPAN Measuring the Lifecycle Carbon Footprint of a Golf Course and Greening the Golf Industry in Japan Intended category: Beyond today’s infrastructure

Abstract: Currently, approximately 35,000 golf courses exist globally. In Japan, there are over 2,400 golf courses that are developed mostly in rural areas. This study focuses on measuring the lifecycle greenhouse gas carbon footprint (CF), which would help in developing effective environmental management strategies. The lifecycle inventory assesses land preparation, course development and maintenance, equipment for turfgrass maintenance, clubhouse construction and operation and transportation used by golfers including golf carts. We found that in Japan the lifecycle emissions of a typical golf course with 18 holes are 39,188 t-CO2 for 30 years, and carbon sequestration by the forest and planted trees in the course accounts for 16,944 t-CO2 during the same period. Depending on the quantity and frequency of fertilizer use, fertiliser-derived N2O emissions may overcompensate for the CO2 uptake. In addition, management of the existing forest within a course can positively or negatively impact the CO2 sink. The paper proposed measures to minimize CF: improving the energy efficiency of the equipment, the clubhouse facilities and the vehicles; maximizing CO2 uptake by reducing forest loss; promoting reforestation and practicing sound forest management.

1. Introduction Land-use change is influenced not only by local needs, but also by local urban demands and remote economic forces. Urban expansion occurred at the expense of farmlands and forests, and is currently highest in developing countries (UNEP, 2007). Recreation in the countryside has also been a cause of land-use changes and a source of controversy over balancing between rural economic development and environmental conservation (Bell, 2000). In Japan, large-scale resorts were developed on rural hills and mountains, often replacing local farmers who managed an essential part of the traditional agricultural system called satoyama (Takeuchi et al., 2002). From the late 1980s to 1990s, there were protests in Japan regarding the destruction of the local landscape for the development of resorts, especially golf course development (Yamada, 1990; Matsui, 2003). Similar problems caused by golf course development have occurred not only in developed countries (Balogh and Walker, 1992), but also in newly industrialized countries including China (Richards, 2010). However, reliable data pertaining to golf course development are scarce at the global level.



On the other hand, as in other industries, greening, i.e. embedding environmental considerations into industrial processes, products and services is considered as an effective management strategy essential for the survival of the tourism industry (Bramwell and Lane, 1993; Harris et al., 2002). It was acknowledged that tourism growth could no longer continue without addressing its major impacts (Berry and Ladkin, 1997). Hammond and Hudson (2007) discovered that there was a considerable interest in environmental concerns amongst golf course managers in the UK. In Japan, in a similar context, Greenery by Golfer Group (GGG), whose members are golf club managers, golfers, government agencies and scientists, has been promoting environmental conservation and nature restoration including reforestation. However, studies on lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which would serve as a base for planning effective mitigation measures, have not yet been conducted for a golf course. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to (i) summarize the recent increase in the number of golf courses at the global scale, (ii) assess the lifecycle GHG emissions of a golf course as its carbon footprint (CF) and (iii) identify key factors and measures for more effective environmental management of golf courses. 2. Golf Course Growth How many golf courses have been built in the world? There is no official statistics to answer this question. Gange et al. (2003) described that globally there are over 25,000 golf courses, and Golf Research Group (2000) reported a total of 30,730 courses in 119 countries and 57 million golfers. In 2008, Ikki-Shuppan, which publishes a monthly journal of golf management in Japan, found that there are 32,300 courses in 198 countries and regions, based on a survey conducted in cooperation with golf associations in each country and region (Ikki-Shuppan, 2008). In addition, the WorldGolf website (http://www.worldgolf.com/) provides extensive course guide information for courses in over 100 countries. The author integrated available lists provided by WorldGolf.com and the world list made by Ikki-Shuppan (2008). The result indicates that in 2008 there were over 35,100 golf courses globally (Fig. 1). The USA accounts for 50% of the global total, and the top five countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada and Australia) account for 76%. It is estimated that an 18-hole golf course requires approximately 50–60 hectares

China 500 1%

South Africa 450 1% Sweden 480 1%

Other countries 5,773 17%

France 559 2% Germany 684 2%

Global total 35,112 courses (2008)

Australia 1,500 4% Canada 2,300 7% Japan 2,442 7%

United States of America 17,672 50%

United Kingdom 2,752 8%

Figure 1. Number of golf courses in the world



(ha) of land (Gössling, 2002). Assuming an average size of 50 ha per 18-hole golf course worldwide, and taking into account the global composition of 6-hole, 9-hole, 18-hole, 27-hole, 36-hole, 45-hole and 54-hole courses (Ikki-Shuppan, 2008), the golf courses worldwide may cover at least an area of 17,238 km2, an area equivalent to the size of Kuwait. Golf courses cover a mere 0.14% of the global arable land and permanent cropland (The World Bank, 2010), and 0.06% of the global forest area (The World Bank, 2010). However, if golf course development in developing countries continues hand-in-hand with their economic development, golf courses would cover a few percent of the forest and agricultural land, and increasingly compete with those land use types. In Japan, there are over 2,400 golf courses, most of which have been developed in rural areas. The golf courses in Japan occupy 0.6% of the total land area (Saito, 2009). Following the burst of Japan’s economic bubble in the late 1980s to early 1990s, many existing golf courses had to make tough management decisions, and some were forced to close (Saito, 2008). 3. Assessment of the Lifecycle Carbon Footprint (CF) 3.1. Methodology In this study, the lifecycle CF was measured by analyzing documentation collected on golf course development specifications and by interviewing managers and greenkeepers. The lifecycle inventory considered land preparation, course development and maintenance, equipment for turf maintenance, clubhouse construction and operation and transportation used by golfers including golf carts (Fig. 2, Table 1). In general, golf course vegetation is treated as a carbon sink, while other inventory items are a source of GHG emissions. Due to the lack of reliable data and examples, the CF of closing phase is not assessed in this study (Fig.2). Although there are many golf courses that operate for more than 30 years, this study considers 30 years as the course lifecycle. This duration was chosen because managers who were interviewed indicated that a golf course and clubhouse are often renovated more or less 30 years after they were built. The study assumes that all assumptions and emission factors used for the assessment in Table 1 would not change for the 30-year life of the course. Development

(0) Preliminary investigation

Operation & Maintenance

(1) Course development

(4) Vegetation (forest, planted trees and turfgrass)

(2) Equipments for course maintenance

(5) Course maintenance

(3) Construction of clubhouse

(6) Operation of clubhouse

Closing

(8) Closing /conversion

(7)Transportation of golfers

Figure 2. Lifecycle inventory of a golf course : Inventory items in the grey area with dashed line are measured in this study



Table 1. Lifecycle inventory structure of a golf course and the assumptions for CF assessment Lifecycle Inventory 1. Course development

Inventory items

Assumptions for CF assessment (18-hole course)

Source

Eq.

1-1. Land preparation 1-2. Stormwater management work 1-3. Ground work

Survey，logging work, treatment of logged trees (chipping) Grid chamber, drainage, regulating ponds Removal of soil surface on the course ， cutting earth and embankment, rough formation of course, land leveling Green construction ， nursery construction, tee construction, banker construction，fairway construction, rough construction Green turf, tee turf, fairway turf, rough turf, turf sand Drainage (drainpipe, drainage work of the surrounding area)

a a a

(1) (1) (1)

a

(1)

a a

(1) (1)

Effluent pumping and treatment facility, and piping work Construction of maintenance road, bridge, drainage ditch, etc. Permeable pavement work, U-shaped gutter, buried drain piping

a a a

(1) (1) (1)

Watering and supplying drinking water facilities Substation facilities, outdoor lights 2,120 tall trees (H = 3-4m), 3,820 semi-tall trees (H = 2-3m), 7,720 shrubs (H = 1m) Fences around the course, road relocation, management of remained forest, fire prevention water tank, etc. Turf grass management of green, tee, fairway and rough

a a a

(1) (1) (1)

a

(1)

1-4. Course construction 1-5. Placing turf grass 1-6. Drainage work 1-7. Effluent processing facilities 1-8. Maintenance road construction 1-9. Access road and parking construction 1-10. Water supply facilities 1-11. Electric facilities 1-12. Planting trees 1-13. Ancillary facilities 1-14. Turf grass management 1-15. Temporal works 1-16. Forest loss due to course construction 1-17. Carbon stock of planted trees 2. Equipments for course maintenance 3. Clubhouse construction 4. Vegetation (forest and planted trees) 5. Course maintenance

6. Clubhouse operation

7. Transportation of golfers

2-1. Equipments for course maintenance 2-2. Golf carts 3-1. Clubhouse construction 4-1. Carbon sequestration by forest 4-2. Carbon sequestration by planted trees 5-1. Mowing (green, tee, fairway and rough) 5-2. Spaying herbicide and fertilizer 5-3. Supplemental planting 5-4. Course renewal 6-1. Gas 6-2. Electricity 6-3. Water 6-4. Sewage treatment 6-5. Waste (food waste, etc) 7-1. Passenger vehicle use of golfers to access golf course 7-2. Use of golf cart

a

(1)

a Table 2

(1) (1)

a

(1)

b,c

(1)

b,c b,c

(1) (1)

Table 2 a

(3) (3)

5,000 liter gasoline/yr and 5,000 liter diesel/yr

c

(2)

Fuel consumption by spaying equipments is included in 5-1. Carbon emissions from herbicide and fertilizer production are taken into account 30 trees/yr Every 30 years 27,514 m3/yr 360,000 kWh/yr 18,000 m3/yr 18,000 m3/yr 18t/yr 35,000 golfers/yr, 1.5 golfers/passenger vehicle, 80 km (driving distance)/passenger vehicle, 10km/liter(gasoline mileage) 35,000 golfers/yr, 10,000 rounds/yr (3.5 golfers/round), 1 liter gasoline/round(18 holes)

c

(1)

b c b b c c b b, c

(1) (1) (2) (2) (1) (1) (1) (2)

b, c

(2)

Temporary road, temporary water supply facilities and so on. Change in forest area before and after the course construction 2,120 tall trees (H = 3-4m), 3,820 semi-tall trees (H = 2-3m), 7,720 shrubs (H = 1m) 3 green mowers, 1 fairway mower, 2 rough mowers, 1 sweeper, 1 spray vehicle for herbicide and fertilizer and 3 pickup trucks 65 golf carts per 18-hole course Steel-reinforced concrete (SRC) construction with gross floor area of 2,500 m2 40.9 ha forest 13,660 planted trees

(Source) a. From the planning documents of a new golf course development in Chiba prefecture, Japan (S. Kurihara, personal communication, January 7, 2010). The course was planned in 2009 and is under construction in 2010. b. From the interview with golf course manager and greenkeeper in Tochigi prefecture, Japan (January 14, 2010). c. From the interview with golf course manager and greenkeeper in Chiba prefecture, Japan (January 18, 2010). (Equation) Eq. (1)–(3) are explained in the text.

Table 2 indicates the land use composition of the golf course for this assessment. The land use prior to development is based on the planning documents of a new golf course development in Chiba Prefecture, Japan (S. Kurihara, personal communication, January 7, 2010). Changes from the forest area to the golf course are considered as forest loss in the assessment. The value used for the total land area and most of the components associated with a golf course are the result of averaging these parameters for the courses found throughout Japan (Ikki-Shuppan, 2010).



Table 2. Land use composition of the golf course for CF assessment Phase Golf course site Prior to the development

After the development

Land use types

Area (ha)

Percentage

Total land area

86.40

100.0%

Arable land Forest Tee Fairway Rough Green Banker Pond Parking Clubhouse and other buildings

8.64 77.76 1.18 12.89 27.13 1.53 0.60 0.20 0.70 1.30

10.0% 90.0% 1.4% 14.9% 31.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.8% 1.5%

Forest

40.87

47.3%

36.89

42.7%

Forest loss

Note and source Average in Japan (n = 898) Ikki-Shuppan (2010) The Greenkeeper 2010.

The planning documents of a new golf course development in Chiba prefecture, Japan Ikki-Shuppan (2010) The Greenkeeper 2010.

From the interviews with golf course managers and greenkeepers in Tochigi and Chiba prefectures, Japan The difference between the total area and the summation of other land use types except forest 77.76(ha) - 40.87(ha)

The following three equations are used to calculate the lifecycle CF. The relationship between inventory item and equation is identified in Table 1. CFp = ∑i (C * EFp),

(1)

where CFp is price-based carbon footprint (t-CO2), C is cost (JPY) of the inventory item, EFp is price-based CO2 emissions factor (t-CO2/million JPY) and i is inventory item. EFp is available for about 400 commodity sectors from the Embodied Energy and Emission Intensity Data (3EID) for Japan using Input-Output Tables developed by NIES (http://www-cger.nies.go.jp/publication/D031/eng/index_e.htm). The average price of equipment for golf course maintenance, such as green mowers, is taken from the yearbook of golf course materials and equipment (Ikki-Shuppan, 2009). CFe = ∑i (E * GCV * EFe),

(2)

where CFe is energy-based carbon footprint (t-CO2), E is energy consumption (kg, l, m3), GCV is higher calorific value (MJ/kg, MJ/l, MJ/m3) and EFe is energy-based CO2 emission factor (t-CO2/MJ). E is collected by interviewing managers and greenkeepers in Japan, and GCV and EFe are obtained from the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report of Japan 2010 (GHG Inventory Office, 2010). While the equations above are for calculating carbon emissions, equation (3) addresses carbon sequestration by forests. CFsq = −∑j (A * SQ)*44/12

(3)

where CFsq is carbon footprint by carbon sequestration (t-CO2), A is area of forest (ha), SQ is annual carbon sequestration (t-C/yr) and j is forest type. A is obtained from the interviews with greenkeepers and from Table 2, and SQ is obtained from the research conducted by the Forestry



and Forest Products Research Institute, Japan (FFPRI, 2010). 3.2. Results We found that in Japan the lifecycle (30 years) emissions of a typical golf course with 18 holes are 39,188 t-CO2, and carbon sequestration by the forest and planted trees in the course accounts for 16,944 t-CO2 (Table 3). This means 43.2% of the emissions are offset by carbon sequestration owing to vegetation (Fig. 3), and the net CF is 22,224 t-CO2. If we divide this net CF by 30 years, annual CF would be 741 t-CO2/yr, which is equivalent to an annual GHG emission from 147 households in Japan (GHG Inventory Office, 2010). Of the total emissions, course development, clubhouse operation and transportation by golfers are the three largest contributors, accounting for 33.4%, 16.5% and 34.9%, respectively (Table 3, Fig. 3). The breakdown of the CF during the course development phase indicates that CO2 emissions from forest loss are the largest of the development phase activities (Fig. 4). Course maintenance and clubhouse operation together share 26.7% of the total CF. Although the estimated CF for the transportation of golfers (433 t-CO2/yr for passenger vehicles and 23 t-CO2/yr for golf carts) depends on certain assumptions (Table 1), the result suggests that golfer transportation accounts for a significant portion of the total emissions (34.9%). Table 3. Estimated lifecycle CF of the golf course Inventory 1. Course development 2. Equipments for course Developmaintenance ment 3. Clubhouse construction 5. Course maintenance Operation 6. Clubhouse operation and maintenance 7. Transportation of golfers Emission sub-total 4. Vegetation (forest and Sequestration planted trees) Total cost/ Net emission

Cost (million JYP) Annual 30 years (%) 1,931 (30.6%) － 443

(7.0%)

－

363 2,400 428 738 6,302

(5.8%) (38.1%) (6.8%) (11.7%) (100.0%)

－

－－ 80 14 25

Annual －

CF (t-CO2-eq) 30 years (%) 13,089 (33.4%) 740

(1.9%)

133 215 456

1,211 3,999 6,461 13,688 39.188

(3.1%) (10.2%) (16.5%) (34.9%) (100.0%)

−565

−16,944

(−43.2%)

6,302

22,224

1. Course development

2. Equipments for course maintenance

3. Clubhouse construction

5. Course maintenance

6. Clubhouse operation

7. Transportation of golfers

4. Vegetation (forest and planted trees)

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

CO2(t-CO2-eq) Carbon sequestration by vegetation

-43.2%

0%

10%

20% 33.4%

30%

40% 10.2%

50%

60% 16.5%

70%

80%

90%

100%

34.9%

3.1% 1.9%

Figure 3. Estimated lifecycle CF of the golf course by inventory proportion



-1,000

0

1-1. Land preparation

1,000

2,000

CF (t-CO2 ) 3,000 4,000

5,000

6,000

234

1-2. Stormwa ter management work

709

1-3. Ground work

520

1-4. Course construction

844

1-5. Pla cing turf grass

704

1-6. Drainage work

726

1-7. Effluent processing facilities

175

1-8. Maintenance road construction

739

1-9. Access road and parking construction

247

1-10. Water supply facilities

283

1-11. Electric facilities

256

1-12. Planting trees

21

1-13. Ancillary facilities

366

1-14. Turf grass management

133

1-15. Temporal works

395

1-16. Forest loss due to course construction 1-17. Carbon stock of planted trees

7,000

6,763 -25

Figure 4. Breakdown of lifecycle CF during course development phase 4. Discussion and Conclusion Analyses throughout the Global Environmental Outlook 4 (UNEP, 2007) highlight the rapidly disappearing forests, deteriorating landscapes, polluted waters and urban sprawl. Golf course development is seen as one of the symbolic and sensitive issues pitting urban versus rural, nature versus society and environment versus economy. This study estimated that globally around 35,000 golf courses exist currently, of which the top five countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada and Australia) account for 76% (Fig. 1). The study found that these golf courses cover an area of approximately 17,238 km2, an area equivalent to the size of Kuwait. Several developed countries have applied stricter regulations including environmental impact assessments (EIAs) for golf course construction and management. However, in developing countries, where course development is being done under the name of economic development, regulations have been relatively loose, such as in China (Richards, 2010). With this trend, the number of golf courses in developing countries will increase over the next decade. Those countries need to introduce not only EIAs and other regulations to protect the local environment, but also assess and manage the CF and carbon offset scheme to reduce the impact on global climate change. In addition, for the existing golf courses in both developed and developing countries, assessing their own CF and reducing it would improve management efficiency and increase the success of differentiated marketing. This study developed the inventory and methodology for the lifecycle CF assessment (Fig. 2 and Table 1) by using sample golf courses in Japan. The results showed not only the total GHG emissions from a golf course but also the carbon sequestration by forests and planted trees within the course. The net CF for a 30-year lifecycle was estimated to be 22,244 t-CO2. The



breakdown of the inventory contributing to the lifecycle CF was also provided (Figs. 3 and 4, Table 3). The study showed that 43.2% of the emissions may be offset by carbon sequestration by vegetation on the course. However, N2O emissions associated with frequent use of fertilizers may overcompensate for this CO2 uptake, depending on the quantity and frequency of fertilization (Townsend-Small and Czimczik, 2010). Agata (2008) estimated carbon uptake and storage by all vegetation types on a golf course, and showed that in Japan an 18-hole course would absorb 1,684 t-CO2/yr. This figure is approximately three times larger than that estimated by this study (565 t-CO2/yr). This discrepancy is because Agata (2008) used net primary productivity (NPP) for his assessment instead of using net ecosystem productivity (NEP), which is significantly smaller than NPP. In addition, Agata (2008) counts carbon uptake and storage by turfgrass; however, this study did not include these aspects because carbon uptake by turfgrass is regularly removed as grass residues (clippings) during the course maintenance and are usually collected for waste disposal or simply left on the turf to decompose naturally. The English Golf Union provides a tool called the ‘carbon calculator’ on its website (http://www.englishgolfunion.org/) that enables club managers to estimate a club’s CF on the basis of energy and water bills. This tool focuses only on the CF of course maintenance (5) and clubhouse operation (6) in Fig. 2, while this study expands the boundary of the CF assessment to cover the lifecycle of a golf course, and provides a more comprehensive outlook of a golf course’s CF. Based on the lifecycle CF assessment, following measures should be considered to minimize CO2 emissions and maximize CO2 uptake and storage: (1) The CF resulting from course development can be reduced by minimizing forest loss. (2) Forest management and tree planting in golf courses can offset carbon loss. (3) Improving the energy efficiency of equipment used for course maintenance and of the clubhouse facilities can contribute to the reduction in the CF of the operation and the maintenance phase. (4) Improving gasoline mileage of passenger vehicles and golf carts and promoting ride sharing would contribute to the reduction in golfer’s travelling CF. This study presented a baseline lifecycle CF of a golf course in Japan. Since a CF labelling scheme has been applied to more and more products and services in Japan (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, 2009), sooner or later the scheme may be applied to the golf industry. At that time, the golf industry should develop a standardized method for the lifecycle CF assessment. In addition, each golf course will need to assess their lifecycle CF by a standardized method to establish a baseline, and subsequently establish various operating scenarios. Future work includes assessing the golf course CF of other countries, improving the assessment methodology and developing a more tailored approach for managers to propose effective measures of CF reduction.



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was supported by the program, ‘Promotion of Environmental Improvement for Independence of Young Researchers’, under the Special Coordination Funds for Promoting Science and Technology provided by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan. I would like to express my gratitude to H. Tezuka, H. Naito, T. Nishimoto, H. Kita, T. Mizuno, S. Kurihara, H. Tanikawa and K. Tani for their valuable discussions and information during the development of this study. I would like to thank the golf course managers and greenkeepers who provided me with valuable data and information for this study. REFERENCES Agata, W. (2008) Contribution of Golf Courses to Purification and Warming Prevention of Atmosphere, Journal of Japanese Society of Turfgrass Science, 37(1), 18-26. Balogh, J.C. and Walker, W.J. (Eds.) (1992) Golf Management and Construction: Environmental Issues, CRC Press LLC. Bell, J.P. (2000) Contesting rural recreation: the battle over access to Windermere, Land Use Policy, 17, 295-303. Berry, S. and Ladkin, A. (1997) Sustainable tourism: a regional perspective, Tourism Management, 18(7), 433-440. Bramwell, B. and Lane, B. (1993) Sustainable tourism: an evolving global approach, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 1(1), 6-16. Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Japan (FFPRI) (2010) How to measure carbon sink by forest? (in Japanese). Retrieved June 27, 2010, from http://www.ffpri.affrc.go.jp/research/ryoiki/new/22climate/new22-2.html Gange, C.A, Lindsay, D.E. and Schofield, J.M. (2003) The Ecology of Golf Courses, Biologist, 50, 63-68. GHG Inventory Office (Eds.) (2010) National Green house Gas Inventory Report of Japan 2010. Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Golf Research Group (2000) The Global Golf Report. Retrieved June 1, 2010, from http://www.golf-research-group.com/reports/index.html Gössling, S. (2002) Global environmental consequences of tourism, Global Environmental Change, 12, 283-302. Hammond, R.A. and Hudson, M. D. (2007) Environmental management of UK golf courses for biodiversity ― attitudes and actions, Landscape and Urban Planning, 83, 127-136. Harris, R., Griffin, T. and Williams, P. (Eds.) (2002) Sustainable Tourism (Second Edition): A Global Perspective, Butterworth-Heinemann. Ikki-Shuppan (2008) The Number of Golf Courses in the World, Monthly Journal of Golf Management, No.300, Ikki-Shuppan, Tokyo, Japan. Retrieved June 1, 2010, from http://www.mmjp.or.jp/tubaki-golf/newsfail/2008/0725-sekaigolf.html Ikki-Shuppan (2009) Yearbook of Golf Course Materials and Equipment 2009 (Extra Number of Monthly Journal of Golf Management), No.310, Ikki-Shuppan, Tokyo, Japan.



Ikki-Shuppan (2010) The Greenkeeper 2010 (Extra Number of Monthly Journal of Golf Management), No.317, Ikki-Shuppan, Tokyo, Japan. Matsui, K. (2003) Golfjo haizanki (in Japanese), Fujiwara-Shoten, Tokyo, Japan. Richards, G. (2010) Inclusion in the 2014 Olympics feeds a boom time for golf in China, Guardian, March 6, 2010. Saito, O. (2008) Restructuring existing rural resorts as a sustainable infrastructure for basin socio-ecological systems in Japan: A case of redundant golf courses in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Proc. 3rd Int. Conf. on Sustainability Engineering and Science, Auckland, December 8-12, 2008. Saito, O. (2009) Environmental and Economic Scenario Analysis of the Redundant Golf Courses in Japan, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 58, 593-599. Takeuchi, K., Brown, R. D., Washitani, I. and Yokohari, M. (Eds.). (2002) SATOYAMA Traditional rural landscape of Japan. Springer. The World Bank (2010) 2010 World Development Indicators, Washington, D.C., USA. Townsend-Small, A. and Czimczik, C.I. (2010) Carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions in urban turf, Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L02707. UNEP (2007) Global Environmental Outlook 4: environment for development. Yamada, K. (Eds.). (1990) Golf jo boukoku ron (in Japanese), Fujiwara-Shoten, Tokyo, Japan.

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1

Salon, Ms. Judelyn Dr. Ermelinda G. Tobias (Presenter) Mindanao State University-Iligan Institute of Technology School of Graduate Studies, Sustainable Development Program Andres Bonifacio Avenue, Tibanga, 9200 Iligan City Telephone/Fax: +63.63.351.6131 Home Tel Number +63 63 2251149; Email [email protected] Title:

A Correlational Analysis of Collective Social Capital and Sustainable Development Program Outcome in Iligan City, Philippines

Theme: Resilient Societies Abstract The study examines the elements of social capital that promote and those that impede collective action towards achieving positive sustainable development program outcome. Employing the quantitative correlational method of research and utilizing the landscape approach in survey samples, 40 participants for each seven (7) communities in Iligan City, Philippines were surveyed. Inferential analysis used for this research includes logistic regression to determine the significant contribution of each level of the independent variable into the logistic model. The probabilities and subsequent odds ratios are the parameters used to quantify the relationships and conversely, the disparities between and among variables. Data revealed that development programs affect social capital and the difference of social capital determines the perceived success of development programs. Keywords: Social Capital, Sustainable Community Development, Dynamics. 1

INTRODUCTION

Social capital is relatively an addition to the literature of sustainable development where collective action from social actors defines the success of sustainable community development intervention (Fukuyama, 2001; Putnam, 1993). While recognized as equally important with human capital, financial capital, and material infrastructures, the social capital appears to be the least structured dimension in community development planning (Fukuyama, 2001). The perception that may have contributed to this trend is significantly associated to the society being characterized with propensity of forces toward complex social realities that to some development organizations can be addressed through adoption of universal policies that are conducive for diversity and social sustainability (United Nation [UN], 2009). However, the shift of aging social order brought by facilitators of development and the emergence of new social order may bare communal reactions with the introduction of new systems that desecrate the traditional and customary practices of the communities (Michalski and Miller, 2000). In the recent century, the developed countries brought system that taught underdeveloped communities resilience and adaptability to change. Characterized as being dynamic, these communities choose to reconstruct the system to minimize friction and risk by synergizing human resources with development programs that have direct or indirect impact to them (UN, 2009). However, there remains the gap on understanding the extent of the communities’ receptivity towards community development where there is a constant dynamic social cohesion (Wenger, 1998). This study provided understanding on the patterns of social capital for each type of communities (coastal, lowland, and upland) and explored the



2

relationship of this social capital pattern to people’s perception of sustainable development program outcome and the location of the communities. 2

Research Design and Analytical Framework

The study is anchored on the premise that despite the acceleration of secularization and social changes facilitated by development organizations (Bujang, 2007), the communities’ receptivity to development interventions remain to be limitedly recognized (UN, 2009). This stems from an assumption of the study that development organizations act and implement programs independent from each other that lead to unsustainable progress. Thus, the myriad of short-term development projects from different organizations implemented in communities contributes to the unmonitored level of social development. To this end, the study used the theory of social capital to explain and correlate the relative effect of these development interventions to the communities of Iligan City, Philippines. Utilizing the quantitative correlational method of research, 23 questions were used to gather six (6) independent variables (household decision-making, trust and solidarity, collective action and cooperation, information and communication, cohesion and inclusion, and empowerment and political action) while only one (1) question classified into three categories was used to capture the perception of Sustainable Development Outcomes of the 280 cross-sectional survey participants from seven communities. The World Bank’s Social Capital Assessment Tool (SOCAT) determines the variable involved in determining the social capital of the communities These variables are measured using the Likert-type Scaling (1=“strongly agree”…5=“strongly disagree”; 1=“to a very great extent”…5=“to a very small extent”) and binary response (Yes and No). Finally, the quantitative analyses were made through descriptive statistics and inferential analysis (logistic regression), while qualitative information generated through in-depth interview was analyzed using content analysis. 3

Discussions and Conclusion

3.1

Household Decision-making

The type of community is correlated to the number of groups. Table 1 indicated the “Sig” column and the “Exp(B)” revealed that the 0.007 is a significant value taken from a chisquare distribution and the 4.084 is the odds-ratio. Table 1 Parameter Estimates of Family Involved in CBOs Parameter Estimates A_Q1_of_how_ many_such_groupsa none Intercept [type=1] [type=2] [type=3] 1 to 2 Intercept [type=1] [type=2] [type=3] a. b.

B

Std. Error

Wald

df

Sig.

.258 1.407 -.050 0b .880 1.504 .487 0b

.323 .524 .494

.637 7.223 .010 .

.288 .489 .424

9.314 9.461 1.317

1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0

.425 .007 .919 . .002 .002 .251 .

Exp(B)

95% Confidence Interval for Exp(B) Lower Bound Upper Bound

4.084 .951 .

1.464 .361 .

11.398 2.503 .

4.502 1.627 .

1.726 .709 .

11.741 3.734 .

the reference category is: 3 and above this parameter is set to zero because it is redundant.



3

The significant value of 0.007 implies that coastal communities significantly contribute to the logistic model. The odds-ratio of 4.084 is the ratio: prob of outcome coastal _ none / coastal _ 3 and above 37 / 7    4.08 prob of reference upland _ none / upland _ 3 and above 22 / 17

(3.1)

Data revealed that Type 1 (Coastal) are highly significant (0.007 and 0.002) and are 4.08-4.5 times more likely to have “none” or “1 to 2” groups of organizations compared to Type 3 (Upland) who are likely to have “3 and above” group memberships. Type 2 (Lowland) is not significant (0.919 and 0.251), meaning, lowland communities are spread across all three levels of group memberships with no specific concentration on any group. With respect to the type of CBOs, Type 1 – though they lack memberships in organizations – are mainly religious in nature (43.0%). These type 1 communities are 4.3 times more likely to be members in such (religious) organizations than Type 2 (upland) communities. Gender and ethnicity do not seem to be a distinguishing factor affecting memberships. All three types of communities (coastal, lowland and upland) have most memberships in either gender or ethnic-based organizations. Type 1 and Type 2 communities are 0.045 and 0.470 times less likely to have members in organizations that comprise of the same occupation compared to Type 3. This shows that Type 1 and Type 2 communities have members that are diversely different in terms of occupation. The same can be said for membership in organizations that are defined by education. Type 1 and Type 2 communities are 0.072 and 0.299 times less likely than Type 3 communities to have members in “similar-education level” organizations. Meaning, these two types (coastal and upland) do not distinguish their memberships due to occupation or educational level as compared to Type 3 communities. When asked about the dynamics of the community-based organizations (CBOs) with other organizations outside their community, Type 1 communities are 0.250 times less likely to have organizations interact with outside groups compared with Type 3. This shows that coastal communities lack membership to organizations and lack networking with outside groups. Type 2 do not have any difference compared with Type 3 which means that these two types are most likely to have networking and linkages with outside entities relative to coastal communities. Consequently, Type 1 communities are 4.9 times more likely to “probably” seek help from outside other than from relatives and close friends compared to Type 3 communities who would likely “definitely” seek help outside. This finding supported information that almost all funding grant - either as country-aid or local non-government organization (NGO) assisted programs - were concentrated in the Type 3 communities. Data revealed that, given a dire situation, Type 3 communities (37.7%) would definitely seek aid outside their community if deemed necessary. On the other hand, Type 1 communities (66.7%) are more apprehensive to seek the same aid outside the community. This finding may have implications that development programs, if in existence for years, may significantly increase the community level of assistance dependence. 3.2

Trust and Solidarity

Trust and solidarity indices were correlated to the location or type of the communities. Kruskal-Wallis test was used since the response variables are greater than 3 and are ordinal. Kruskal-Wallis Test is a test of Ordinal-Categorical data where each observation is ranked,



4

and then the mean ranks are compared among groups for significant differences in ranks and responses. This test finds the differences in mean responses (i.e community 1 would "strongly agree," while community 2 will “strongly disagree") and further treats the responses as continuous (range from 1-5) to provide the mean values which can be interpreted in terms of adjectival ratings (to a very great extent - to a very small extent). Data revealed that there are no significant differences in mean ranks (142.22, 135.04, and 143.39) of responses among types of communities when asked, “Most people in the community are willing to help if you need it.” All three types of communities’ are equally spread out in their degree of responses. Data indicated that there are significant differences in mean ranks (97.63, 159.76, and 183.28) of responses among types of communities when asked, “In this community, one has to be alert or someone is likely to take advantage of you.” Based on coded responses (1=”strongly agree”…5=”strongly disagree”), Type 1 communities mean are almost inclined to “strongly agree” (1.16) to the statement, while Type 2 (1.74) and type 3 (1.88) dwellers only “somewhat agree”. Type 1 communities are more apprehensive on trust issues among themselves. When asked about the level of trust the respondents pay to the community LGUs, data revealed that there are significant differences in mean ranks (156.24, 156.21, and 100.58) of responses among types of communities. Based on coded responses (1=”to a very great extent”…5=”to a very small extent”), Type 1 (2.13) and Type 2 (2.11) communities’ means are inclined to trust local government (LGU) officials “to a great extent”, while Type 3 (1.51) dwellers are inclined towards a “to a very great extent” response when asked, “How much do you trust the community LGU officials.” Type 3 dwellers place more trust on community LGU officials than their Type 1 and Type 2 counterparts. Meantime, there are significant differences in mean ranks (113.84, 111.41, and 209.58) of responses among types of community when asked, “How much do you trust the City LGU Officials.” Based on coded responses (1=”to a very great extent”…5=”to a very small extent”), Type 1 and type 2 means (2.71 and 2.63, respectively) are inclined to trust City LGU officials “neither great nor small extent”, while Type 3 (3.88) dwellers are inclined towards a “to a small extent” response when asked with the statement. Type 3 dwellers trust less city LGU officials compared to their Type 1 and type 2 neighbors. On the other hand, data indicated that there are no significant differences in mean ranks (134.26, 138.76, and 151.61) of responses among types of community in terms of degree of trust in the national government officials and all three types of community are equally spread in their degree of responses When asked about the capacity of the people to bond and work for their development, data revealed that not all three types of community differ in their responses. All will “contribute” their time if necessary for the benefit of others. However, data revealed that Type 1 and Type 2 communities are 2.2-3.00 times more likely to contribute money than Type 3 communities are even if the project will benefit others only. This could mean that Type 1 and Type 2 communities are “selfless” when it comes to voluntary monetary contributions compared to upland dwellers. Further, the results of the study may be relevant on the notions that Type 3 communities are dependent on the assistance from outside sources that they are less likely to give counterpart of their resources to the development efforts. 3.3

Collective Action and Cooperation Three elements in collective action and cooperation indices were correlated to the



5

location or type of the communities. Combinations of descriptive and inferential statistics were used to test the relationship of the variables. Kruskal-Wallis test was used for nonparametric test particularly those variables with more than three (3) ordinal response data (e.g. Likert- type scaling). Data revealed that, except for few, all communities in each type have participated in communal activities. When the frequency of the activities was correlated to the type of community, data revealed that there are no significant differences on the frequency of communal activities participation among the three types of community. All of the communities have participated in communal activities either “once” or “many times”, in general. Further, there are significant differences in mean ranks (139.46, 159.44, and 123.13) of responses among types of communities when asked how likely is it that people will cooperate to try to solve the problem. Based on coded responses (1=“very likely”…5=“very unlikely”), Type 1 and Type 2 communities’ means (1.78 and 1.89, respectively) are inclined to “somewhat likely” to cooperate, while Type 3 (1.35) dwellers border between “somewhat likely” to “very likely”. Meaning, Type 3 dwellers are more likely (than their coastal and lowland neighbors) to cooperate in times of water supply shortage or the like. 3.4

Information and Communication

Information and communication is an intertwined and interlocked element of social capital (Putnam, 1998). This is because the former is imbued with information and the latter’s teleological heart is its transmission in the whole process of societal interaction for knowledge. In the case of Iligan, coastal dwellers rely much on relatives/friends and neighbors as the main source of information (81.8%), while Type 3 and Type 2 communities rely on the radio (37.7% and 48.8%, respectively). However, when asked about the medium that they secondarily relied for communication, the case is reversed. Type 1 dwellers rely much on radio as the secondary source of information (85.9%), while Type 3 and Type 2 communities rely on the neighbors and friends (52.5% and 36.6%, respectively). Meantime, the three tertiary source of information are relatives and friends, local market and TV. Type 3 dwellers rely much on relatives/friends for tertiary source of information (66.2%), Type 2 and Type 3 rely on local market with 55.3% and 36.2%, respectively. Type 1 dwellers rely on TV for tertiary source of information with 85.6%. 3.5

Cohesion and Inclusion

Cohesion is said to be indispensable for multi-ethnic and multicultural communities. Development advocates viewed social cohesion and inclusion as remedy to social inequality in communities and to individual persons (Jenson, 2001). In Iligan City, data revealed that from the scale of 1=”to very great extent” to 5=”to a very small extent”, all three types of community fall within 4=“to a small extent” to 5=”to a very small extent.” However, the significant difference in mean ranks can be interpreted as those who are relatively closer to one category over the other. Type 1 communities mean (4.09) are inclined to characterize their differences to a much “lesser” extent than Type 2 (4.23) and Type 3 (4.45) dwellers. Only 13.6% of the total respondents from the three types of community have claimed that differences in gender, religion, etc. have caused problems and these are attributed solely to Type 1 dwellers. All of the type 3 and Type 2, and majority of the type 1 dwellers claimed that the differences mentioned do not cause any problems. This implies coastal communities are still relatively more prone (to a small extent) to problems arising form socio-cultural-



6

religious differences. The two differences that most often cause problems are landholdings with 18.6% “yes” of which 53.8% are from Type 3 dwellers. This is followed by differences in political affiliations with 4.6% of which 69.2% are from Type 1 communities. On landholdings, Type 3 (53.8%) dwellers are more prone to such disputes, while Type 3 communities (69.2%) are more prone politically natured differences. However, a negligible count of 1 (1.9%) of the total have claimed that landholding issues had resulted to violence. This was claimed by Type 3 dwellers. From the scale of 0= “0” to 4= “many times”, all three types of communities fall within the range 1 to almost 2. Discreetly, this implies that all types of community had community gathering at least once or twice a year, on the average. However, the significant difference in mean ranks (125.95, 143.60, and 159.23) can be interpreted as those who are relatively closer to one category over the other. Type 1 community, on the average had only 1 community gathering compared to Type 2 and Type 3 dwellers that had community gatherings approaching two. It further means that coastal communities lack the initiative for community gatherings and social interaction compared to lowland and upland areas. Type 1 and Type 2 communities are 4.8-5.4 times more likely to have various linguistic/ethnic communities gathering compared to type 3 dwellers. This means that Type 3 dwellers are more selective in choosing members for its community get-togethers. Moreover, Type 1 and Type 2 communities are 2-3.6 time more likely to have community gatherings based on various socio-economic factors than upland areas. This implies that both coastal and lowland communities are more inclined in using the mixed socio-economic criteria for community get-togethers than upland dwellers. From the data, all three types of community are social status-based when it comes to community gatherings. Except for a negligible count of 6 from Type 1 communities, all three are social status-conscious communities and would rather have community gatherings of equal social status of the attendees. The odds-ratios cannot be calculated, as there are zero counts in two cells resulting to near infinite values. Interpretation therefore must be based on the descriptive (counts) alone. Moreover, there is no significant association among the three types of communities in community gatherings that are based on religion. All three may or may not have community get-togethers of the same or mixed religion. This further supported that from a scale of 1= “very safe” to 5= “very unsafe”, all three types reported to border between “very safe” to “moderately safe”. However, the significant difference may be interpreted as the difference between and among their mean ranks (93.64, 159.58, and 191.71). Of the three types of communities, the “safest” are Type 1 community relative to Type 2 and Type 3 areas with Type 3 communities being only “moderately safe.” 3. 6

Empowerment and Political Action

Data revealed that there is no significant association (mean rank 139.17, 141.50, and 141.50) among the three types of communities in their frequency of community gatherings for petition for community benefits. All three, on the average and discreetly, had only once organized a petition. Also, there is no significant association among the three types of communities to whether they have voted on the last elections or not. Most of all three type of community have participated on the last elections.



3.7

7

Association of perception of sustainable development outcome and location of communities.

From the scale 1= “to a very great extent” to 5= “to a very small extent”, all three communities response fall within the same category 3= “neither great nor small extent” to 4= “to a small extent.” Significantly and discreetly, Type 2 and Type 3 dwellers claimed that implementation economic programs are successful to a “neither great nor small extent”, while coastal communities would claim the same as only “to a small extent” successful. This implies that coastal communities view economic programs in their area as only successful to a small degree. From the same scale, the three types of community responses range from “to a great extent” to “to a very small extent” (2.89, 3.61, and 4.34). This implies that Type 1 communities view environmental programs as successful which ranges from “neither great nor small extent” to “to a great extent”, while Type 2 communities view these with a successful rating of “to a small extent” to “neither great nor small extent”. Type 3 dwellers consider the same implementations as only successful “to a small extent” to “to a very small extent”. Briefly, according to Type 3 communities, they have the least successful environmental projects implemented. All three types of communities’ response fall within the same category 3= “neither great nor small extent” to 4= “to a small extent”. Type 2 (3.45) and Type 3 (3.81) dwellers claimed that implementation community programs are successful to a “neither great nor small extent” to “to a small extent”, while Type 1 (2.91) communities would claimed the same as only “to a great extent” to “neither great nor small extent” successful. This implies that lowland and specifically upland communities need more community development programs as they rated these projects as almost “to a small extent” successful. 3.8

Association of social capital and perception of sustainable development outcome and location/type of communities.

Most of the statements are focused on local organizations and social interactions that are independent of government intervention. Only few were correlated with the sustainable development outcome using Spearman’s Rank Correlation, the trust in government officials is correlated to perception on the success of social development programs. For Type 1 communities, data revealed that there is a significant relationship between degree of trust in city LGU officials and perception on the success of SD programs in the areas of environment and social development programs. A positive (0.240) relationship is observed between trust in city LGU officials and successful implementation of environmental programs. A positive (0.435) relationship exists between trust in city LGU officials and successful implementation of social development programs. Further, there is no significant relationship between the degree of trust in community LGU and national government officials and perception on the success of social development programs. This may be explained that development programs that focuses on empowering people are less felt if not funded. For Type 2 communities, data revealed that there is a significant relationship between degree of trust in community LGU officials and perception on the success of SD programs in the areas of environment. A positive (0.277) relationship is observed between trust in community LGU officials and successful implementation of environmental programs. Further, there is no significant relationship between the degree of trust in city and national government officials and perception on the success of social development programs.



8

For Type 3 communities, there is no significant relationship between the degree of trust in community, city and national government officials and the perception on the success of any social development programs. Significantly, data revealed that there is a significant relationship between the degree of trust in city government officials and perception on the success of sustainable development programs when all types of community are combined. The degree of trust in city LGU officials is proportionate to the perception of success in SD programs. Specifically, trust in city LGU officials reflects the perception or degree of success in their implementation. A positive (0.230) relationship is observed between trust in city LGU officials and successful implementation of economic programs. A positive (0.277) relationship exists between trust in city LGU officials and successful implementation of environmental programs. A positive (0.325) relationship exists between trust in city government officials and successful implementation of social development programs. Finally, there is no significant relationship between the degree of trust in community and national government officials and perception on the success of sustainable development programs. From the preceding correlations, it can be deduced that only Type 1 and Type 2 communities contributed to the combined significant correlations, and can be inferred that these two types are receptive to government officials and more observant on projects being implemented compared to Type 3 areas. Again, Mann-Whitney (for 2 group responses which is "will contribute" and will "not contribute"), Kruskal-Wallis (for more than 2 group responses "never", "once", "a few times" and "many times" in statement “jointly petition government officials or political leaders for something benefiting the community”), and Spearman Rank Correlation (for “jointly petition government officials or political leaders for something benefiting the community”) were used to test the relationship. Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis test ranked the responses and grouped them. In terms of the relationship of perceived SD programs with time, money, and labor contribution, 101 of the 279 respondents who contributed their time claimed that economic programs were successful “to a small extent”, 64 “to a great extent” and 63 somewhat “neutral”. This implies that if community residents gave their time on government economic programs, most of it would have a success rate of “small extent”. There is a very significant difference in mean ranks between those who contribute money in the perceived success of government economic and community programs (p=0.00765% were highlighted for stream managers attention Natural Capital (NC. x Adapted principle) NC. 1 Protect/improve habitat, biodiversity & ecosystem function. Reduce emissions of substances to a concentration that can easily be assimilated by natural systems: a. NC. 2 chemical concentrations & nutrient loads; b. GHG , Ozone depleting substance; etc NC. 3 Reduce/eliminate dependency on materials that are naturally scarce. NC. 4 Reduce/eliminate use of virgin materials & resources Reduce/eliminate dependency on & accumulation of man made substances that may prove harmful to NC. 5 ecosystem or human health substitute all with substances that can be easily assimilated broken down by natural systems. NC. 6 Use renewable resources only from well-managed & restorative eco-systems. NC. 7 Reduction/elimination of waste NC. 8 Increase/full recycling of resources NC. 9 Reduce/eliminate dependency in the use of fossil fuels NC. 10 Reduce energy demand Human Capital (HC. x Adapted principle) HC. 1 Ensure adequate Health & Safety standards are met HC. 2 Respect human rights throughout their operations & geographical regions HC. 3 Respect human values & their different cultural contexts HC. 4 Give employees (where possible) access to training & education HC. 5 Educate & promote for higher standards of health & support mental wellbeing. HC. 6 Provide a reasonable living wage & fair remuneration for employees & business partners. HC. 7 Allow for & enhance recreation time & support individuals’ active involvement in society. HC. 8 Ensure supply chain partners apply the same principles to fulfilling employee needs. HC. 9 Create opportunities for varied & satisfying work. Social Capital (SC. x Adapted principle) SC. 1 Source materials ethically & treat suppliers, customers & citizens fairly. SC. 2 Reduce emissions of persistent compounds that are harmful to ecosystem or human health. SC. 3 Respect & comply with local, national & international law. SC. 4 Provide a supportive family friendly labour policy. SC. 5 Prompt & full payment of taxes & support of social infrastructure. SC. 6 Minimise of the negative social impacts of products & services or maximisation of the positive Support the development of the community in which the organisation operates, including economic SC. 7 opportunities). Assess the wider economic impacts of the organisations activities, products & services on society e.g. in SC. 8 creating wealth in the communities in which the organisation operates Encourage & engage in transparent consultation & communication with relevant internal & external SC. 9 stakeholders, SC. 10 Fulfil commitments made with suppliers, customers/citizens & regulators. SC. 11 Effective Communication throughout the organisation , reflecting shared Values & objectives Infrastructure Capital (IC. x Adapted principle) Ensure that systems, processes & infrastructure performance are maintained under a robust set of future IC. 1 operating scenarios. Seek to maximise the flexibility & adaptability of infrastructure to respond to diverse set of future operating IC. 2 scenarios. Develop infrastructure that facilitates ease of maintenance: a. Design for disassembly ; b. Modular designs IC. 3 (to minimise potential negative opex spend) IC. 4 Have sought to reduce or eliminate waste & emissions in production systems. IC. 5 Where appropriate replace products for service contracts. IC. 6 Optimisation of infrastructure/technologies & processes in a way that uses resources most efficiently. IC. 7 Optimise the recycling of resources. Identifying & utilising synergistic production systems where one organisation’s waste streams are another’s IC. 8 resources. IC. 9 Seek improvements & innovation in the design of product systems (eco-efficiency & eco-innovation). IC. 10 Apply sustainable construction techniques when looking at new infrastructure. Financial Capital (FC. x Adapted principle) FC. 1 Employ prudent financial management FC. 2 Efficient use of financial resources (reducing & minimising costs) FC. 3 Management of financial risk (over both short & long term) FC. 4 Internalise environmental & social costs & assign an economic value to them. Effective total costs under a robust set of future scenarios e.g. unit running/capital /Remediation/ FC. 5 infrastructure/manpower/Ext services ratio/Imported (raw and treated) water ratio/ Energy ratio (costs) etc. FC. 6 Effective management of financial risk exposure. FC. 7 Timely fulfilment of contracts

% F E D

C B A

58

0

0

3

2 2 5

83

0

2

0

0 1 9

83 83

2 2

0 0

0 0

0 1 9 0 1 9

100

0

0

0

0 6 4

89 73 100 82 58

1 0 0 1 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 3 0 1 5

0 0 0 0 0

2 4 4 1 2

6 4 6 8 5

0 9 11 10 11 11 11 89 25

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 12 0 10 0 8 0 9 0 8 0 8 0 8 1 0 0 6

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 2

50 60 60 60 60 43

1 0 0 0 0 1

0 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 4 4 4 3

2 4 0 0 0 0

4 6 6 6 6 2

0 0 0 0 0 1

100

0

0

0

0 6 0

100

0

0

0

0 4 2

67

0

0

3

0 4 2

50 0

0 0

0 0

5 1

0 5 0 0 0 0

70

0

0

1

2 5 2

70

1

0

1

1 4 3

22

2

0

5

0 2

70 67 70 70

1 2 1 1

0 0 0 0

2 1 1 2

0 0 1 0

91

1

0

0

0 3 7

88 67

1 1

0 0

0 2

0 4 3 0 4 2

0 0 0 8

0 0 0 0

0 12 0 12 0 7 0 0

0

0

0 12

0 0 5 1 1 0

0 0

0 0

0 7 0 12

5 0 0 0 0 0

3 3 4 4

0 0 0 0

4 3 3 3

0 0 0 1

0 0



Participants were asked to answer the questions with regards to each of the life-cycle stages in asset delivery (investigation, design, construction, operation and decommissioning), in relation to the business units which have an impact on investment delivery (Human Resources, Program Planning, Supply Chain and Procurement) and in relation to the tools employed by the WaSC during asset delivery (company policy, asset standards, engineering specifications, key performance indicators, and cost models). Responses were categorised as principles perceived as ‘undermanaged’, ‘requiring management’, ‘conditional’ (undermanaged in some situations), ‘effectively managed’, ‘did not know’, or ‘not relevant’ (to the work of the water company). Results were reflected back to the respondents for further comments, to encourage participants to challenge or verify results. The researcher then used the information gathered to identify those principles perceived as least well managed in investment delivery and under the control of ADU (see Table 2). 4.3 Step 3: Identification of opportunities for improvements in sustainability performance as a consequence of changing ADU processes and practices. A series of interviews were held with the Stream Delivery Managers (SDM).The Five Capitals principles were presented to the managers, with principles perceived as being less well managed highlighted in orange (those with orange highlighted % undermanaged figures in Table 2). The objective was to identify priority principles for ADU, and to reveal the perceived business benefits from incorporation of those principles into process and practice. SDM interviews were held on a one to one basis and each interview was allocated 1 hour. Each SDM interviewee was given a description of the methodological steps undertaken so far and presented with a list of asset investment classes (investment streams) that corresponded to the asset investment distinctions used by the business. To ensure that the interview captured relevant and informed information on specific investment streams, interviewees identified the stream in which they had most experience and took part from the perspective of that stream. The managers were asked to review all the principles, placing a mark alongside each principle that they believed their stream had a significant impact upon. The interviewees were then asked to identify from the marked principles those which they believe their stream should prioritise (Figure 1 – ‘marked principles’). The researcher then requested the participants to review their selection using two adoption criteria – (1) those principles which would be easiest to make strong performance improvements against, and; (2) those principles which are most likely to result in business benefits and therefore likely to be adopted (Figure 1 – ‘selected principles’). Finally, interviewees were asked to select one principle, and to describe investment stream improvements they aspired to by adopting the sustainability principle for the stream (Figure 1 - ‘Desired stream investment improvements’). 4.4 Step 4: Converting research findings into a business change through which the WaSC will be better able to appraise and influence sustainability performance The Project Steering Group had requested that the research carried out under steps 1-3 be converted into a set of measures to help monitor the sustainability performance of investments within ADU. Consequently, potential measures from the literature review carried out under step 1 were compiled in a spreadsheet, and sorted by relevance against capital and principle. As the worksheet related indicators to sustainability principles it was used to select and



propose indicators that could turn WaSC stream sustainability objectives into measurable indicators and begin the process of enabling the ADU to manage sustainability performance. The spreadsheet information was then used in a series of meetings with the WaSC Environmental Strategy Team members (ESM), the ADU Reporting and Financial Manager (RFM) responsible for collection and dissemination of financial and technical data related to the activities of ADU, and an External Consultant (EC) charged with the development and delivery of performance measures to be applied to ADU partners as they deliver assets for the WaSC. These meetings identified factors that would assist the business in adopting and promoting change that would improve incorporation of sustainability (See Table 3). Table 3 Sustainability appraisal change advocated

Source

Change characteristic

RFM

The number of separate indicators/measures used to assess the sustainability of ADU decision making should be as few as possible, in order to minimise resource use in administration or interpretation.

EC RFM EC

The data used in the development of the indicators/measures should be already collected by the business.

EC

The existing contractual arrangements between the WaSC and its contract partners will not leverage changes to the sustainability performance. The resultant measures/indicators can only be applied as soft influencing measures.

ESM

The addition of operational and embedded carbon should be a business priority.

The researcher incorporated these factors into the change proposal by developing a set of sustainability Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) (see Figure 1) which uses existing data from the WaSC and its Partners. These aim to reveal more and less sustainable practices for the purposes of influencing partner behaviour and promoting stream specific sustainability understanding within ADU. For example the proposed indicator for ‘Energy in Construction’ utilised data already collected by the Environment Strategy Team (transport fuel and energy use) and data from Health and Safety monitoring (man hours on site), creating a cost neutral or low cost indicator. Step 5. Assessing the business influences on the adoption of the sustainability proposal Once the WaSC had finalised its decision on adopting the proposed KPIs (or not) a series of follow-up interviews were held with the RFM, EC and ESM. Interviews were digitally recorded, transcribed and analysed for themes. Participants were asked to review the proposed sustainability KPIs and respond to the following questions: i. ii. iii. iv. v.

Was the KPI adopted or rejected? What characteristics of the KPI contribute to its adoption position? What organisational factors contributed to its adoption position? What methodological process contributed to the adoption position of the KPI? Were there any specific internal or external events that altered or gave rise to the adoption position of the KPI?



Figure 1 Results: (Step 3) eliciting ADU sustainability desires; converting these into a proposal of sustainability Key Performance (Step 4); adoption status (Step 5).



The interviews revealed three key themes: data availability, alignment and fit. Interviewees most frequently commented that data already being collected by the business was a significant factor. Data already collected by the business was not subject to the following barriers: the need to demonstrate data utility to partner and the WaSC, the additional cost associated with data acquisition, the development and sharing of methodology and boundaries for data collection or the development of relevant technical authority and leadership. Additionally the interviews revealed that existing organisational strategy (advocated by the WaSC management in policy documents and statements) did not clearly advocate principles supported by the KPIs. Alignment with the views of the WaSC leadership or the extent to which the proposal aligned with the perceived views or plans of the regulatory authority had a significant impact on the adoption position of the proposal. Finally the fit of the proposal with the roles and responsibilities of the significant business units would impact on adoption. Where the proposal transgressed responsibilities of a business unit it required a reappraisal of responsibilities. Where these responsibilities are entrenched in contracts employed by the business unit, they may significantly limit the WaSC’s facility to alter decision criteria or data sharing activities without financial implications. In such circumstances, timing becomes a significant factor in ability to change. 5. DISCUSSION This research demonstrates that the alignment of leadership vision and policies to the sustainability principles impacted on which principles were incorporated into WaSC decision making. Results from Steps 2, 3 and 4 all perceived that sustainability principles under the capital headings Social, Financial and Human were well managed. The consensus was that these principles aligned with the WaSC’s existing leadership vision and the policy: Service, Compliance, Value and People (SCVP). Sustainability principles related to infrastructure and natural capital were perceived by ADU as significantly less-well/under managed by comparison and the SCVP policy has very little inclination towards the management of these principles. The findings, that leadership (Eisenbach, Watson, & Pillai, 1999; Poole & van de Ven, 2004; Romanelli & Tushman, 1994) and shared vision (Jick et al., 1992; Kotter, 1996; Lueke, 2003) impact on organisational change are supported by the academic literature. This suggests that a realignment of leadership visions and policies to incorporate principles perceived as poorly managed will support sustainability change processes. Such realignment may be achieved rapidly only through transformational change that discards existing frameworks and practices to set up new policies and visions, referred to as ‘second generation organisational development (OD) approaches’. Or by ‘third generation OD approaches’ which allow past orientation and frameworks to play a role in the change by re-orientating the existing policies, a change event referred to by Nadler (1989) as organisational frame bending. For UK WaSCs an environmental constraint and source of change leadership is the regulator (Correia, 1998; Helm & Oxford Economic Research, 2003). Step 5 revealed that the adoption position of the proposed ‘embodied carbon’ indicators fluctuated with the business’s interpretation of the regulator’s plans. Additionally a lack of external leadership (from the regulator) or internal expertise made it difficult for the business to select and promote a methodology for the capture of data. Gersick (1991) suggests that despite strong leadership any OD will be subject to resistance due to environmental and internal inertia that surrounds the existing system. Data collected in Steps 3 to 5 identified multiple internal themes: data, cost, and the existing division of



organisational roles and responsibilities, all constraints to the process of improved incorporation of sustainability. The persistent demand placed on the sustainability change, that the ‘data acquisition must be cost neutral’ limited change to options that relied on existing routines or knowledge stocks and made no or as little a possible alteration to the allocation of resources. It is these freedoms, to allocate resources for creative or strategic behaviour, that Sharma (2000) terms ‘Managerial Discretionary Slack’ and he links this to an organisation’s facility to adapt to environmental problems. The themes resulting from Steps 3-5 consistently alluded to both cost and the existing data activities (or routines) as having a significant bearing on adoption. Changes that utilized data from existing routines (environmental reporting) or were cost neutral/savers were more likely to be adopted. A further contributing factor to the preferencing of existing routines and data already collected by the business may be explained by the Technology Acceptance Model TAM model, where the ‘perceived ease use and ‘perceived usefulness’ that contribute towards a decision towards the adoption of a technology are both moderated by ‘experience’ (Venkatesh & Bala, 2008). It is important to note that much of the data already collected by the business contributed to cross sector annual reports. Although this has not necessarily influenced the decision criteria, the ease of related principles being embedded in future decision frameworks has increased by reducing barriers to data acquisition. A final source of internal constraint identified by the research was the extent to which changes fit with existing divisions of responsibility and management between business units. In Step 3 the desired sustainability improvements of the SDMs for ‘Medium Treatment’ and ‘Other Installations’ suggested that the priority sustainability impacts of concern for the SDMs was the operational performance rather than the impacts associated with construction of the infrastructure(See Figure 1). The ADU primary responsibilities are the economic and timely construction of infrastructure assets. The sustainability indicators proposed that are operationally focused transgress the traditional responsibilities of the business unit. The adherence to these responsibilities was noted by EC and RFM as a factor that contributed to the rejection of many of the operational KPIs. As a result the adopted indicators expose sustainability impacts of construction focused streams but will fail to expose the impacts of streams for which priority sustainability concerns were primarily operational. In summary, the pace of change for improved incorporation of sustainability into UK WaSCs will probably proceed incrementally as a function of either the ‘buy in’ generated through adaptations based on the manipulation of cost neutral data or of leadership to invest resources. Ultimately it is likely the adoption of sustainability will require the WaSCs of today to transgress boundaries in structure vision and expertise. 5. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research reported here was jointly funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and Yorkshire Water under award CASE/CNA/07/104. 6. REFERENCES Cooper, R. B., & Zmud, R. W. (1990). INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IMPLEMENTATION RESEARCH: A TECHNOLOGICAL DIFFUSION APPROACH. Management Science, 36(2), 123-139.



Correia, F. N. (1998). Selected issues in water resources management in Europe. Rotterdam: Balkema. Eisenbach, R., Watson, K., & Pillai, R. (1999). Transformational leadership in the context of organizational change. Journal of Organizational Change Management, 12(2), 80-88. Foxon, T. J., McIlkenny, G., Gilmour, D., Oltean-Dumbrava, C., Souter, N., Ashley, R., et al. (2002). Sustainability criteria for decision support in the UK water industry. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 45(2), 285-301. Gersick, C. J. G. (1991). REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE THEORIES - A MULTILEVEL EXPLORATION OF THE PUNCTUATED EQUILIBRIUM PARADIGM. Academy of Management Review, 16(1), 10-36. Helm, D., & Oxford Economic Research, A. (2003). Water, sustainability and regulation. Oxford: Oxera. Jick, T., Kanter, R. M., & Stein, B. (1992). The challenge of organizational change : how companies experience it and leaders guide it. New York: Free Press. Kotter, J. P. (1996). Leading change. Boston, Mass.: Harvard Business School Press. Lueke, R. (2003). Managing change and transition. Boston, Mass.: Harvard Business School Press ; [London : McGraw-Hill] [distributor]. Nadler, D. A., & Tushman, M. L. (1989). Organizational Frame Bending: Principles For Managing Reori. The Academy of Management Executive, 3(3), 194. Poole, M. S., & van de Ven, A. H. (2004). Handbook of organizational change and innovation. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Porritt, J. (2007). Capitalism : as if the world matters (Rev. paperback ed.). London: Earthscan. Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of innovations (5th ed.). New York: Free Press. Romanelli, E., & Tushman, M. L. (1994). ORGANIZATIONAL TRANSFORMATION AS PUNCTUATED EQUILIBRIUM - AN EMPIRICAL-TEST. Academy of Management Journal, 37(5), 1141-1166. Sharma, S. (2000). Managerial interpretations and organizational context as predictors of corporate choice of environmental strategy. Academy of Management Journal, 43(4), 681-697. Van De Ven, A. H., & Poole, M. S. (1995). EXPLAINING DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE IN ORGANIZATIONS. Academy of Management Review, 20(3), 510-540. Venkatesh, V., & Bala, H. (2008). Technology acceptance model 3 and a research agenda on interventions. Decision Sciences, 39(2), 273-315. Venkatesh, V., & Davis, F. D. (1996). A model of the antecedents of perceived ease of use: Development and test. Decision Sciences, 27(3), 451-477. Weick, K. E., & Quinn, R. E. (1999). Organizational change and development. Annual Review of Psychology, 50(1), 361.



Technology Windows in Sustainable Innovation Projects: Experiences with an Innovation Tool for Identifying Sustainable Application Domains Onselen, MSc, Lenny van, Lauche, Prof. Dr. Kristina, Silvester, Ph.D MSc, Sacha and Rikoll Delhi, MSc, Silje Delft University of Technology Industrial Design Engineering Dep. of Product Innovation Management Landbergstraat 15 2628 CE, Delft The Netherlands Phone: +64 (0) 21 2461550/ +31 (0)15 278 3029 Fax: +31(0)15 278 2956 E-mail: [email protected] Category: Evolutions in Technology Abstract Emerging technologies are potentially interesting for sustainable innovation in high-technology firms and for ‘techno-starters’. This article provides an innovation tool for sustainable technology-oriented innovation, as there are hardly any of these kinds of methods available. The Technology Window tool helps to find valuable applications and helps to evaluate if the application fulfils sustainability criteria. The window is a symbolic visualization, in which each side represents a key dimension: the strengths of the technology, one or two constraints that apply to utilizing these strengths in a sustainable way, and the technological drivers (trends and developments). This paper describes eight empirical cases used for evaluation and validation of the innovation tool. The technology window has been applied in student projects and used as a workshop tool in a professional setting. In most cases the innovation tool successfully structured the front-end of technology-oriented innovation. It was most effective in cases where the strengths of the technology were not obvious and when a new application domain was needed. In these cases the method resulted in surprising and innovative ideas. The method proved to be valuable to structure the front-end of technology-oriented innovation in sustainable innovation projects and for sustainable emerging technologies. 1

Introduction

Sustainable innovation is becoming a key driver for business development. Especially ‘technostarters’ and high-technology firms see the potential of emerging technologies for sustainable new product innovation. Although there is no real method for innovation (Berkun, 2007) it helps to structure the process to increase the success factor (Buijs, 2005). Unfortunately most innovation tools and methodologies are developed for traditional manufacturing and non-hightechnology firms (De Luca, 2010). It is well known that technology-push strategies often do not work, because customer-orientation is a critical success factor for innovation (Veryzer, 1998;


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Cooper, 1999; Ulwick, 2002; Riel et al., 2004; De Luca, 2010). However, customer-orientation is especially difficult for high-technology firms due to the engineering culture of these companies (Day, 1999; Slater and Mohr, 2006). In addition, classical market research methods are unreliable in such cases, because consumers are unfamiliar with the new technology (Hellman, 2007). And finally, despite the fact that the most important decisions for sustainable new product innovation are made in the Fuzzy Front End (FFE) (Brezet et al., 2001), there is little focus in de FFE on identifying opportunities for developing products that are sustainable in function (Wever and Boks, 2007). For this reason, we developed the Technology Window: an innovation tool for identifying sustainable application domains for emerging technologies (Van Onselen et al., 2007). The Technology Window helps to find valuable applications by taking consumer needs into account and helps to evaluate whether the application fulfils sustainability criteria. The aim of this paper is to describe the innovation tool and the empirical cases used for evaluation and validation of the method. 2

Opportunity identification

The tool forms part of what Van Onselen et al. (2007) called Sustainable New Product Development (SNPD): a combination of Environmental New Product Development, referring to function and system innovation (Berchicci, 2005), and Sustainable Development, defined as development that "contributes to the balanced continuation of the humankind-environment relationship for all and for the future” (Boutilier, 2005). SNPD can be defined as the sustainable development of completely new products by integrating social and environmental aspects into the development of a product (Berchicci, 2005; Boutilier, 2005). SNPD does not only focus on product improvement and design as do the other terms used for DFS, but also on innovation of new products. SNPD focuses on radical new solutions needed to meet the sustainability goals set by the different stakeholders in society. It often means that there will be a discontinuity with the former solutions or innovation processes. Perhaps functions should be fulfilled differently (Function Innovation) or even the whole system in which the function has to be fulfilled has to be changed (System Innovation) (Brezet and Hemel, 1997). The investigated models of the FFE could be summarized in four steps: strategy definition, opportunity identification, creative thinking and assessing and substantiating (Van Onselen et al, 2007). The main difference of our method in comparison to other innovation models lies in the opportunity identification phase. During the opportunity identification phase, a lot of information is gathered and many decisions are made. Several diverging and converging steps are taken (see Figure 1). Speed and focusing are the typical characteristics of this phase. The opportunity identification phase for technology-oriented innovation has a different order of steps compared to the traditional market-oriented innovation models. The opportunity identification for market-oriented innovation starts with analyzing and identifying opportunities in the market. Often, market segments are analyzed, which are (close to) familiar markets of the company to provide a workable view. Our approach starts with analyzing the technology and its competing technologies instead. The thought behind this is that technology-oriented innovation should not start with analyzing the market for opportunities. The lack of familiar markets would


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result in too broad a perspective. The Technology Window provides a more suitable starting point by creating a framework based on the strong properties of the technology or its strengths.

Figure 1. Opportunity identification phase

The analysis results in a list of properties of both the technology and competing technologies. Some of the characteristics of the technology are the strengths of the technology in relation to those of the competition. A strength, or a few strengths combined, can form a Technology Window (for more explanation see Section 3). The window acts like a framework for identifying application domains for which the technology solves a problem or provides additional value compared to existing solutions. It will be most likely that a few windows and application domains can be generated for each front-end cycle of an innovation project. It is important to focus as fast as possible on the most potential domain. When later in the process it becomes clear that a domain was not as potential as assumed, not too much time is lost and it is possible to iterate and focus on an alternative domain. The selected domain should be analyzed to find markets for the technology. The potential of each market must be defined. Those markets that have more potential than others are called market opportunities. Sometimes, a market opportunity can be combined with one or more strengths of the technology; these combinations are often called Technology-Market (T/M) combinations or search areas. The focus should be on the most potential T/M-combinations. 3

Technology Window

The Technology Window helps to generate application domains in case of a technology-oriented innovation project. The window helps to understand what categories of products can be developed based on analyzing the technology first. After that, the window helps with the search for markets without getting lost in all the available market opportunities and ending up with a list of suitable T/M-combinations. With the strengths of the technology in mind, the market can be searched for new valuable opportunities.


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A Technology Window is a symbolic visualization (see Figure 2) with each side representing a key dimension of the specific technology: the strengths of the technology, one or two constraints that apply to utilizing these strengths, and the technological trends. In Table 1 each side is explained with a definition and an example. The number of sides of the Technology Window is not fixed. In Figure 2 an example is shown with one strength, one development, and two conditions. It is also possible to combine two strengths of the technology, or to use more trends and developments. It is not recommended to use more than six sides, because this might be too complex to generate fitting application domains. The risk might be that a side is forgotten and the generated application domain will not fulfil the conditions of the window. In Table 2 the steps to create and use a technology window are explained.

Figure 2. The Technology Window for ‘independence from infrastructure’

Table 1. Explanation of the technology window terminology Side Strength Trend/development

Condition

Definition A strong feature or property of the technology. A market or technical development in a certain direction for the long term, that enables the technology or material to excel in its performance. A requirement that needs to be met to enable the characteristic to work in a sustainable way.

Example solar cells Independence from an infrastructure. Improvement of storage media. User must be motivated to put effort to (re)charge the battery.

Step 4 should be explained more in depth. At this point it is not necessary to formulate very precise conditions, because the window is used mainly to stimulate creativity in order to generate several application domains. These conditions however still need to be formulated in such a way that afterwards they can be used to evaluate the generated domains. For example, a condition for solar cell technology can be that the user must be motivated to put effort in recharging the product’s storage medium. This condition is formulated in such a way that it does not block the generation of application domains by being too specific. On the other hand, this condition is specific enough to be used to evaluate the generated application domains. In case of solar cell technology domains could be mobile electronics and outdoor travelling and sports. It is not


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certain if consumers of mobile electronics want to put effort in recharging the battery. If this is compared to the outdoor travelling and sports domain, it is more likely that consumers are more dedicated to the environment and therefore more willing to put effort in recharging the battery of a product with solar cells. Table 2. Creating and using a technology window Step 1. Drawing material 2. Pick a strength 3. Select a trend/development

4. Formulate conditions 5. Use the window

6. Select the best fitting domain

4

Explanation Take a large sheet of paper for developing the window. Take an interesting strength from the list of characteristics. Draw a line on the top of the paper and write the strength above it. Search for consumer trends and technological developments that will make the strength excel even more. It should be promising for the next five years. Draw one of the side bars of the window and write the trend and/or development on the outer side. If you selected more trends or developments you can draw more side bars (and create a pentagon or hexagon). Formulate conditions that are necessary to utilize the strength. It can be one or more conditions. Draw more side bars if necessary and a bottom bar to finish the window. Write the conditions also on the outside of the window. The window should be large enough to write all the possible domains you can come up with on the inside. Use the brainstorm technique to generate application domains. Postpone judgment: do not use the conditions for judgement while brainstorming. If you have an extensive list of possible application domains you can select the best fitting domain by evaluating each domain on the conditions.

Research method

In order to test our approach, we conducted six workshops and two student projects based on the Technology Window method. These workshops and projects are treated as case studies to build up a body of evidence on the use of the technology window method (Eisenhardt, 1989). For each case, a number of different research methods were employed to collect data from the end-user and the facilitator perspective (see Table 3 and 5). The data were analyzed qualitatively by identifying themes and by cross checking these with other sources. 5

Cases: workshops

In the past years, six workshops based on the Technology Window method were conducted. All the workshops were organized during events with 15 to 30 participants. The participants were placed in groups from 4 to 6 people. In Table 3, the workshops are described.


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The workshop contained elements of interaction, brainstorming and question cards. These elements stimulated creativity and inspiration. The workshop was designed for half a day (see outline Table 4). However, in some cases less time was available. Therefore, we were forced to shorten the steps or hand-over a specific step (consumer/market investigation) to a parallel workshop. Table 3. Description of the workshops Case 1.

2

3 4

5

6

Client/organization Network organization for sustainable designers (O2 Nederland) Association of Dutch Designers (BNO) and network organization O2 Nederland Pezy product innovation

Description Part of the O2 lustrum event with the theme playground Part of De Bloeiende Stad during the Dutch Design Week

Pilot workshop as preparation for the Big Bang Association of Dutch Part of Dinsdag Designers (BNO) a network event and network for discussing organization O2 sustainability Nederland

Aim Find opportunities for NaBasCo, biopolymers, nanopolymers Find opportunities for Techwood, bio-polymers, bamboo and Pure Composite Find opportunities for bio-polymers

Data type Field notes Pictures

Participants 4 groups: sustainable designers

Evaluation facilitators Pictures Blog report

4 groups: business people, designers and students 1 group: Pezy employees 5 groups: designers and business people

Field notes

Find opportunities for bio-polymers, bamboo and NaBasCo

Evaluation facilitators Questionnaires participants Report by organization Pictures Cooperation of Organized Find opportunities Evaluation several organizations during the Dutch for bio-polymers facilitators (DPI value centre, Design Week as and self-healing Questionnaires Pezy product part of the Big materials participants innovation, O2 Bang Report by Nederland and Dusc organization innovation) Pictures Industrial Design Organized Find opportunities Evaluation Business Fair (IOB) together with for different kinds facilitators Aluminium of aluminium Pictures Centrum Blog report

4 groups: (sustainable) designers and business people

3 groups: industrial design students

In case 3, 4 and 5 the step consumer/market investigation took place in a separate workshop guided by facilitators of Pezy Product Innovation. They are specialized in consumer insight research. The Technology Window and consumer insight modules were performed in parallel sessions. At the end of the two sessions the two workshop-teams were force-fitted together in an


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extra step. The force-fit resulted in ideas combining the insights from both workshops. It was however difficult to split up at the right moment. In case 3 and 4 the domain for the consumer insight workshop was still vague. This led in some teams to very broad market definitions and unsurprising opportunities. In case 5, the domain was defined beforehand, which undermined the Technology Window workshop. “Because of using a too specific problem statement the Technology Window was less useful.” The problem of vague or too descriptive domains did not occur when the workshop was performed chronologically. Table 4. Workshop outline Module Introduction and briefing Analyze technology

Make windows Application domains

Consumer/ market investigation Idea generation Pitch

Description The technology window and outline of the workshop is explained. The facilitator expert briefs the teams on the aim of the workshop. The teams are describing their vision on sustainable product innovation. Each team analyzes the technology by questioning the expert and by exploring the internet and literature. The team can use ‘question’ or ‘development’ cards in order to find every detail there is to know about the technology. They fill in a table of properties and compare the characteristics with similar technologies. Then the team determines which characteristics are the real strengths of the technology. A window is based on a strength, a strong characteristic. After choosing the most promising strength, the team defines which trend is aiding the strength and defines on which conditions the strength will excel. When the window is finished, the team will generate application domains by using the brainstorm technique. It is important that the group will postpone judgment and uses creative thinking skills. Only after an extensive list of possible domains is generated, the conditions should be used to judge which domain fits the strength of the technology the best. When an application domain is chosen, the team should investigate the market in this domain and use consumer insights to find useful opportunities for the technology. (This phase can be performed separately to create more time, which was done in cases 3, 4 and 5). A technology/market-combination is chosen. Based on the technology/market-combination, product ideas can be generated. (It is advised to perform this phase in another workshop as this increases the time that can be spent and therefore results in a wider range of innovative ideas). The ideas are presented and judged on the level of innovation and sustainability by an expert jury. (This phase is added as a concluding element for events or for workshops with more than one group).


Duration 15 min

30 - 60 min

30 - 45 min

30 - 45 min

30 – 120 min

30 min

15 min

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In case 4 we received a lot of positive feedback and only a few negative responses on question 1 (see Table 5). The main critique concerned the explanation and the long learning time necessary for understanding the definitions and the rules of the game. Respondents were positive about the technology analysis and the knowledge available. In case 5 the feedback was less positive on the question for two reasons. Firstly, the self-healing material used as one of the cases had only one strong property and was therefore less suitable for the Technology Window approach to search for the strongest property. Secondly, the domain was already specified. In our method the domain is based on the strongest property that results from the technology analysis. This negative response indicates that the technology window method is only useful when the strengths of the technology are unclear and there is need for a new application domain. Table 5. Results of the questionnaires Case 4 1. Did this approach help you to integrate the strengths of the material into new applications? 2. Did this approach help you to integrate user benefits into new applications? 3. Did this approach help you to come up with more sustainable designs?

Yes 11

No Maybe/Little Don't know 3 4

Respondents 18

8

4

3

3

18

7

6

3

2

18

Case 5 1. Did this approach help you to integrate the strengths of the material into new applications? 2. Did this approach help you to integrate user benefits into new applications? 3. Did this approach help you to come up with more sustainable designs?

Yes 2

No Maybe/Little Don't know 5 3 1

Respondents 11

2

1

2

11

5

4

2

6

11

The respondents had mixed opinions on the subject of sustainability (question 3). About half of the respondents agreed for two different reasons. The first is “because of the different thinking” and “because it can lead to totally new products in comparison with improving existing products.” The second is that the starting point is sustainable, but therefore “depending on the conversation with the expert and the type of material.” A few of the respondents thought the method had potential, but they were not specific about what could be improved to make it more effective for generating sustainable designs. The second half of the respondents gave negative feedback to the question also for two reasons. The first is based on the same observation as above that the sustainable design depends on the technology or condition. The second reason is that the respondents did not see “any connection to sustainable design.” We observed also that the results were not always sustainable. The facilitators tried to stimulate the participants to think


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about sustainability and generate sustainable ideas, but the chosen ideas were not necessarily more sustainable. 6

Cases: student projects

The method was also used in two student projects from the University of Applied Sciences of Amsterdam (HvA) and Delft University of Technology. In both projects students received an explanation on the method and the paper by Van Onselen et al. (2007). The students interpreted and managed the method themselves without help of a facilitator. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to gain insight in their approach and experience (see Table 6). Table 6. Description of the interviews Case 7

Interviewee(s) Description Teacher HVA In the course Innovation Management students need to find innovative applications for technologies.

Data type Interview & reports

8

Two students TU Delft

Interview & report

In the minor Sustainable Design engineering one student project was to develop a sustainable product for Helianthos.

Technology E.g. augmented reality techniques, LED, solar cells Photovoltaic solar cells

The reason for using Technology Windows was in both cases that they had a technology as starting point for innovation. Using the tool helped to categorize the possibilities of the technology and provided a different perspective. The method quickly led to a concrete result. It is however not clear if the method led to more innovative and sustainable results than would have been without using the method. In case 7 the results of the projects also depended on the level of the students. In case 8 the students received a good mark, but the company who was their client did not use the ideas (yet) due to a change of project manager. Based on their experience the interviewees listed advantages and disadvantages of the method, which can be found in Table 7. The method was used slightly differently in both cases. In case 7 the window was drawn on a large sheet of paper. Each side represented several strengths, trends and conditions. The window was used to find connections between the different sides. In case 8 they added an extra step in front. They made a reference book of good and bad product examples they had studied. After that they followed the steps described by Van Onselen et al. (2007), they replaced the window by a matrix in which application domains generated in a brainstorm were evaluated with the strengths of the technology.


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Table 7. Advantages and disadvantages of the method Case 7

Advantages The focus on the technology and the explanation what to do with it. The use of a window is a fun and interesting way of getting insight into the technology. The order of steps is clearly explained in the figure.

8

The structured approach and different perspective. It is fast way of converging, narrowing down the possible alternatives. It tells where to search for opportunities and helps to brainstorm in a structured way. It gives a clear start for the idea generation phase.

Disadvantages The article of Van Onselen et al. (2007) is only explaining the method. It does not work properly as a guideline. There is not a structured approach to categorizing strengths, trends and conditions. It is not clear how to find application domains and how to make connections between the different aspects. The fast focus on the best alternative is also a downside. Good opportunities might be overlooked and it might be too restricted. It is difficult to come to surprising ideas.

The interviewees had suggestions for improvement of the use of the method. This most important remark was that it would help a lot if a trainer could teach the method in a correct way. Other suggestions are: • Use the window as a complete overview of the strengths, trends and conditions. In this way correlations between them can be investigated. • The term trends is limited, use instead the term technology drivers, which includes trends as well as other developments. • Add a side with functionality of the technology, which could give a hint towards the application. • There is need for a clear description how to step from the T/M-description to the creative idea generation phase. • A clear description of all steps and definitions of the method. • Allow more room for creativity. 5. Discussion In most cases Technology Windows successfully structured the front-end of technology-oriented innovation. It was most effective in cases where the strengths of the technology were not obvious and there was need for a new application domain. In these cases the method resulted in surprising and innovative ideas. On the other hand, it has not yet been proven that it always results in successful market introductions and sustainable innovative products. More extensive research is needed to prove that the method results in successful and sustainable products in the long run. The findings of the research (Table 5 and 7) do not fully support the claim that the Technology Windows tool aids in achieving development of sustainable products. Looking at the definition of


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Sustainable NPD the tool supports the development of completely new products and integrates the technology strengths and social aspects into the development of a product. However, it does not explicitly integrate environmental aspects. One could argue that this method was developed to support the application and diffusion of emerging sustainable technologies. The current trend is that sustainable technologies are applied in useless, low quality products. Finding valuable and useful product applications for them is therefore more sustainable. We also need to mention that the method was not successfully applied in all cases. In case 5, with a defined domain and with a material that had only one specific strong characteristic, the method was less convincing. Therefore, it is important to work with an open question and with technologies with many possibilities. In addition, in cases 1 to 4 a few participants did not approve of the workshop design, which in turn affected their opinion on the method. 6. Conclusion The method proved to be valuable to structure the front-end of technology-oriented innovation in sustainable innovation projects and for sustainable emerging technologies. Although a lot of positive feedback was received, there still is room for improvement of the method. Especially, there is a need for improving the method on the environmental aspects of SNPD. The first six cases indicate it is possible to apply the method in a workshop. Yet, more depth might be reached if more time is used for each step. It is also important to explain the steps and definitions more clearly, which is attempted in this article. In addition, trainers can be used to explain the method to innovators or facilitators to guide a project team. References Berchicci, L. (2005). The Green Entrepreneur's challenge (Doctoral dissertation). Delft University of Technology. Berkun, S. (2007). The Myths of Innovation. Sebastopol, CA: O'Reilly Media. Brezet, J.C., Bijma A.S., Ehrenfeld J. & Silvester S. (2001). The Design of Eco-Efficient Services. The Hague, Dutch Ministry of Environment. Brezet H. and Hemel C. (1997) EcoDesign: an promising approach to sustainable production and consumption. Paris: United Nations Environmental Program. Boutilier R. Views on Sustainable Development: A Typology of Stakeholders' Conflicting Perspectives. In Starik M., Sharma S., Egri C. and Bunch R. (2005) New Horizons in Research on Sustainable Organizations. Sheffield, UK: Greenleaf Publisher. Buijs, J. & Valkenburg, R. (2005). Integrale Productontwikkeling. Utrecht, NL: Lemma. Cooper, R. G. (1999). From Experience: the Invisible Success Factors in Product Innovation. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 16, 115-133. Day, G.S. (1999). Misconceptions about Market Orientation. Journal of Market Focused Management, 4, 5-16. De Luca, L.M., Verona, G. & Vicari, S. (2010) Market Orientation and R&D Effectiveness in High-Technology Firms: An Empirical Investigation in the Biotechnology Industry. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 27 (3), 299-320.


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Eisenhardt, K. (1989) Building theories from case study research. Academy of Management Review, 14, 532-550. Hellman, H. (2007). Probing Applications: How Firms manage the Commercialisation of Fuel Cell Technology (Doctoral Dissertation). Delft University of Technology. Riel, A. C. R. V., Lemmink J. & Ouwersloot H. (2004). High-Technology Service Innovations Success: A Decision-Making Perspective. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 21, 348-359. Slater, S.F. & Mohr, J.J. (2006). Successful Development and Commercialization of Technological Innovation: Insights Based on Strategy Type. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 23, 26-33. Ulwick, A. W. (2002). Turn Customer Input into Innovation. Harvard Business Review, 91-97. Van Onselen, L., Lauche K., Silvester S. & Veefkind M. (2007). Technology Windows: a new method to determine valuable product-market combinations. In Bocquet, J.C. (Ed.). (2007). Proceedings from the 16th International Conference on Engineering Design. Paris: Ecole Centrale Paris. Veryzer, R. W. (1998). Discontinuous Innovation and the New Product Development Process. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 2004, 21, 348-359. Wever, R. & Boks, C. (2007). Design for Sustainability in the Fuzzy Front End. In Proceedings of Sustainable Innovation 07, 199-205.


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Ms. Evangelista, Anna (Presenter) Dr. Maria Estela Varua The University of Western Sydney School of Economics and Finance Locked Bag 1797, Penrith South DC, Australia Phone: +61 2 9685 9656, Fax: +61 9685 9105 Email: [email protected] , [email protected] Intended Category: Resilient Societies

(Un)sustainable Consumption in Australian Households: An Exploratory Study ABSTRACT Unsustainable consumption has been identified as one of the main causes of global environmental deterioration. Particular attention is paid to the role of household consumers and the consequences of their choices. A number of studies show that different socioeconomic groups within a nation have diverse consumption profiles leading to different environmental impacts. Thus, policies or programs aimed at regulating unsustainable consumption or promoting sustainability at the household level should be based on a good understanding of the relationship between consumption and the characteristics of households. The current study aims to assess the consumption or usage patterns of households in NSW, Australia with respect to two main groups of environmentally relevant services namely, energy (electricity and gas) and water. The micro-econometric analysis takes into account the effects of the following variables: household income, household size, age, educational level, main occupation, dwelling type, dwelling ownership and labour force status. The data come from the latest (2003-04) cross-sectional survey of the Australian Bureau of Statistics on household expenditures. In addition to the empirical results, the paper also presents a review of approaches to model demand, previous empirical studies on the determinants of unsustainable consumption and relevant methodological issues. This study differs from most previous studies on the subject in that the analysis is at the household level and focuses on specific household characteristics as potential determinants of water and energy consumption. Key words: sustainable consumption, households, micro-econometric analysis



(Un)sustainable Consumption in Australian Households: An Exploratory Study 1.

Introduction

The relation of sustainability to the area of consumption was first stressed in Agenda 21 (UNCED 1992). Chapter four of Agenda 21 declares that unsustainable consumption and production patterns are the main causes of global environmental deterioration. In the same report, it is also stated that in order to improve environmental quality and to encourage sustainable development, increases in production efficiency and changes in consumption patterns are required. Particular attention was paid to the role of households as consumers and the consequences of the choices they make. Although the need to change consumption had been discussed in international circles for some time, there has been no consensus as to the definition of (un)sustainable consumption. One of the first and most commonly accepted definitions of sustainable consumption was given by the Norwegian Ministry of Environment at a sustainability conference in Oslo in 1995. In the said conference, sustainable consumption was defined as “the use of goods and service that respond to the basic needs, bringing better quality of life, while minimising the use of natural resources, toxic materials and emissions of waste and pollutants over the life cycle, so as not to jeopardise, the needs of future generation” (Fien, et al. 2008). There have been many studies attempting to explain the factors that lead to unsustainable consumption (Stern 1997; Norton et al. 1998; Michaelis 2000). Building on these previous studies, this paper aims to determine the demographic factors that affect household water and energy consumption in New South Wales, Australia. Demographic information will enable utility companies to boost their revenue by tailoring services and products to specific groups of people. Likewise, policy makers can use the same information to curb wasteful consumption. Our study adopts the approach of Ferrer-i-Carbonell and Van Der Bergh’s (2004) study of sustainable consumption in The Netherlands. The variables included in their models are supported by findings of several studies. However, unlike these previous studies, the dwelling structure and the type of ownership of households are included in the current model specification. Dwelling structure reflects the lifestyle led by households while ownership reflects how income is used. There are other differences between this study and that of Ferrer-i-Carbonell and Van Der Bergh’s. The focus of the current study is on the consumption made by households, rather than families. In Australia, the structure of families has changed. Due to rising rent, a higher proportion of adult children are staying longer with their parents. The number of single people in shared accommodation and the number of single person households are expected to continue to increase (ABS 2009). Modelling consumption using families as a unit of analysis assumes that a nuclear family is the structure that pervades, which might not be the case. The rest of the paper is organised as follows. Section 2 presents an overview of the various approaches of demand specification while section 3 elaborates on the micro-econometric model used in the study. A description of the data is presented in section 4 while sections 5 and 6 cover the empirical results and conclusion respectively. 2 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 822


2.

Approaches to Model Consumption Demand

Consumption theories explain how individuals (or households) make consumption decisions. A common approach is to statistically estimate particular demand models, usually in the form of a set of demand functions. This approach assumes that preferences are exogenous and that only changes in income and prices modify consumers’ demand. The neoclassical perspective requires an explicit specification of the utility function and derives the demand functions by assuming utility maximization subject to a budget constraint. A good example of this is the linear expenditure system (Barten 1993). Another approach is to specify an expenditure function (cost) and derive demand relationships from these, using general results of utility maximization (Shepard’s lemma). This general approach does not require a specific utility function but is consistent with a certain class of utility functions. The best known demand system that adopts this approach is the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) by Deaton and Mullbauer (1980). Similarly, one can define a functional form for a demand system that is flexible enough and with enough parameters to approximate any cost function (or a direct or indirect utility function). The transilog function is a well known example. Another approach is to specify the demand function as double-logarithmic relationships. This modelling approach which implies constant price and income elasticities of demand was commonly used in consumption studies of the 1950s and 1960s. If one does not believe in the maximisation hypothesis or in the neoclassical preferences, a wide range of demand relationships is possible. One might start by specifying a demand function without worrying about the theoretically required functional forms or constraints imposed on the parameters to satisfy demand properties. Accordingly, Alessie and Kapteyn (1991) observed that the analyst can add new assumptions by assuming satiation, bounded rationality, routines and many others. 3.

Micro-econometric Model of Household Demand

The approach to model consumption used in this study follows the AIDS cost function specified by Deaton and Muelbaur (1980). Specifically, the consumption decision by the households which proportion of total expenditure C is spent on each specific category of consumption is mathematically specified as log , =1− log

+

{

}

(1)

where = 0+

0

+12

(2)

and =

+ 0

(3)

In the above equations u is utility, p is the vector of prices for each good k, and the other symbols denote parameter. From equations (1)-(3) , Deaton and Mullebauer (1980) derived the AIDS demand functions by requiring the price of the derivatives to be equal to the quantity demanded and the total expenditures (X) to be equal to C(u,p). Both requirements are consistent with the utility maximizing approach. Following these assumptions, the AIDS demand function can now be expressed as =

+

+

log⁡(

) (4) 3



where represents the share on household expenditure. More specifically it is the expenditure on good c as a proportion of total expenditures for household i. Equation (4) implies that the share that the share spend on good c depends on the prices of all goods j, and on total expenditures. As cross-section data is used in this study, prices are excluded in the analysis and equation (4) can now be written as =

+

log⁡(Ci ) (5)

The coefficient of indicates whether a good is a necessity or a luxury good. Furthermore, total expenditures can be specified by a model that is an extension of Linear Expenditure System (LES) with non-linear terms (Ferrer-i-Carbonell and Van Der Bergh 2004), which when rewritten, gives a dependence on log(income) (log (yi)) and household characteristics xki. = + 2

2

+

(6)

The next step is to substitute equation (6) into (5) and the resulting specification is =

+

+

1log

+

(7)

which can also be expressed as = + 1log

+ 2

2(

)+

(8)

Equation (8) was then estimated using OLS, 2SLS and SUR to check for the possibility of endogeneity. 4.

Data

The data employed in this study come from the 2003-04 Household Expenditure Survey conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The survey collected detailed information on sources of household income, assets, liabilities and expenditure as well as demographic information on each household member. The basic version of the data was used to estimate the models in this paper. Although the ABS survey covered a national sample, this exploratory study focuses only on the NSW sample of 1,745 households. Unlike the Ferrer-i-Carbonell and Van Der Bergh’s study, unweighted data was used to avoid the possible effects this might have on the regression results. The variables used in the analysis are summarised in Table 1. A number of the explanatory variables, as shown in Table 1 are originally categorical or discrete in nature. Prior to model estimation, these variables namely, age, education and main occupation are first transformed into continuous variables assuming a Normal (0, 1) distribution using the method featured in Terza (1987). In this method, it is assumed that the dummy values can be ordered. For example, with the variable for Main Occupation, the assumption is that managers and administrators have a higher status than labourers and related workers. The Terza method has been found to provide substantial gains with respect to bias and efficiency compared to a conventional dummy variable approach (Terza 1987).



Table 1 – Variables used, values of discrete variables and calculated variables Water Expenditure Model Energy Expenditure Model Age group of the household reference person ‐ The groups formed for this analysis and the corresponding values used were as follows. 1 = 15‐24 years old 8 = 55‐59 years old 2 = 25‐29 years old 9 = 60‐64 years old 3 = 30‐34 years old 10 = 65‐69 years old 4 = 35‐39 years old 11 = 70‐74 years old 5 = 40‐44 years old 12 = 75‐79 years old 6 = 45‐49 years old 13 = 80‐100 years old 7 = 50‐54 years old Ln(household income) ‐ Household income – The weekly household income is reported in AUD. This include: • Gross income less taxes and the Medicare levy • Social Transfers in Kind which include non‐cash benefits and services from the government for education, health, housing, social security and welfare Ln2(household income) ‐ Please see household income above Ln(household size) ‐ Household size ‐ The number of people living in the same dwelling. The persons may or may not be related to one another. A household is defined as a group of people who live in the same home and “make common provision for food and other essentials of living” (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2008). Number of children under 15 ‐ The number of persons who are younger than 15 years old Number of earners in the household – The number of people in a home who earn a salary, wage or business income. Children under 15 years old and full‐time students aged between 15 – 24 years old are not counted. Education degree The original variable had the dummy values shown below, listed from the lowest to the highest educational attainment. 8 = 'No non‐school qualification' 4 = 'Advanced Diploma/Diploma' 7 = 'Certificate not further defined' 3 = 'Bachelor Degree' 6 = 'Certificate I/II' 2 = 'Graduate Diploma/Graduate Certificate' 1 = 'Postgraduate Degree' 5 = 'Certificate III/IV' Looking for work status 0 = “Not Applicable” 3 = “Unpaid voluntary worker” 1 = “Looked for full time work” 4 = “Did not look for full time work 2 = “Looked for part time work” 5 = “Permanently unable to work” Labour force status in main occupation 0 = “Not Applicable” 3 = “Employer” 1 = “Employee full time, paid in cash” 4 = “Own account worker, contributing family worker and employee” 2 = “Employee part time, paid in cash” Main occupation – transformed into a continuous variable Main occupation 0 = “Not Applicable” 1 = “Managers & Administrators” 2 = “Professionals” 3 = “Associate Professionals” 4 = “Tradespersons & Related Workers” 5 = “Advanced Clerical & Service Workers” 6 = “Intermediate Clerical, Sales & Service Workers” 7 = “Intermediate Production & Transport Workers” 8 = “Elementary Clerical, Sales & Service Workers” 9 = “Labourers & Related Workers” Owner/Renter 0 = “Owner” 1 = “Renter” These values were regrouped from the tenure type of the household, where the original values were: 0 = “Not Applicable”, 1 = “Owner without a mortgage”, 2 = “Owner with a mortgage”, 3 = “Renter”, 4 = “Other” Those that fell under “Not Applicable” & “Other” were excluded from the model. Dwelling Structure 1 = “Separate house” 5 = “Flat, unit or apartment in a 3 storey block” 2 = “Semi‐detached, row or terrace house, townhouse etc. with one” 6 = “Flat, unit or apartment in a 4 or more storey block” 3 = “Semi‐detached, row or terrace house, townhouse etc. with two” 7 = “Flat, unit or apartment attached to a house” 8 = “Caravan, houseboat, improvised home & house or flat attach” 4 = “Flat, unit or apartment in a 1 or 2 storey block” Percentage share of household expenditure on Water

Percentage share of household expenditure on Energy in selected dwelling



When estimating the share of expenditures on energy, the number of employed persons in a household is used to replace the presence of a second earner to correctly measure the sources of income of the household. Similarly, the original categorical values for main occupation are used instead of its continuous transformation. The dependent variables, weekly water and energy expenditure, are calculated as a percentage share of total weekly household expenditure on goods and services. 5.

Empirical Results

5.1

Share of household expenditure on Water

The results of the estimated models for water expenditure are shown in Table 2. Models 1 through 5 were estimated using OLS. Model 5 was then tested for endogeneity using the Durbin-Wu-Hausman procedure. Income was found to be endogenous and thus the 2SLS method was employed to estimate Model 6. The number of earners was not included because of its high collinearity with income.

Table 2 – The share of household expenditures on water ^

Model 6

Variables

Estimate

t‐value

Model 5 Estimate

3.982 4.359* Intercept 2.845 1 0.134 3.689* Age group 0.129 ‐0.389 ‐3.006* Ln(household income) ‐0.227 Ln2(household income) ‐0.045 ‐0.523 Ln(household size) 0.077 0.023 0.592 No of children under 15 0.017 1 0.004 0.138 Education degree ‐0.003 2 0.014 0.123 Looking for work status ‐0.011 1 ‐0.045 ‐1.426 Main occupation ‐0.063 Number of earners in the ‐0.095 household Labour force status in ‐0.026 ‐0.845 0.013 2 main occupation 2 ‐0.015 ‐0.781 Dwelling structure ‐0.012 2 ‐0.919 ‐14.749* Ownership ‐0.927 N 1113 1114 R 0.500 0.507 F‐value 36.692 34.610 R Square .250 0.257 Adjusted R Square .243 0.249 ^ Estimated using 2SLS due to endogeneity * t‐values that are significant at p‐value=0.05 1 Transformed into a continuous variable using Terza's method 2 Discrete variables were not transformed

Model 4

Model 3

Model 2

Model 1

t‐value

Estimate

t‐value

Estimate

t‐value

Estimate

t‐value

Estimate

t‐value

6.138* 3.523* ‐3.256* 0.832 0.430 ‐0.100 ‐0.389 ‐2.23*

3.721 0.128 ‐0.478 0.018 0.077 0.017 ‐0.003 ‐0.012 ‐0.065

1.453 3.485* ‐0.658 0.348 0.829 0.428 ‐0.118 ‐0.416 ‐2.255*

2.195 0.327 ‐0.198 0.267 ‐0.008 0.000 ‐0.027 ‐0.036

4.340* 8.763* ‐2.602* 2.659* ‐0.190 0.013 ‐0.845 ‐1.155

2.380 ‐0.281 0.009

1.361 ‐0.542 0.223

1.996 ‐0.166

6.817* ‐3.940*

‐2.088*

‐0.096

‐2.104*

‐0.051

‐1.016

0.111

0.013

0.113

‐0.047

‐0.358

‐0.625 ‐14.925*

‐0.012 ‐0.927 1114 0.507 31.711 0.257 0.249

‐0.627 ‐14.923*

1137 0.284 10.950 0.080 0.073

1114 0.094 7.782 0.009 0.008

1114 0.094 15.522 0.009 0.008

All six models have a significant R² value. Model 1 which has income as the only explanatory variable yields an Adjusted R² of 0.008 while the most comprehensive model, Model 6 has an Adjusted R² of 0.243. Model 6 which is the final model is discussed below. 6 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 826


The results for Model 6 show that a household’s percentage share on water expenditure is significantly affected by household income, the household reference person’s age group and whether the dwelling is owned or rented. The percentage share for water rises by 0.134 when the household reference person belongs to an older age group. The positive relationship between age and share of water consumption is consistent with the findings of Barrett and Wallace (2009) who reported a higher per capita water consumption for an older age group. Other studies (e.g. Billings and Day 1989) have also reported a similar effect with the explanation that older people use more water than children and because they tend to spend more time at home and for gardening. Although Schleich and Hillenbrand (2009) reported a positive relationship between per capita water consumption and age in Germany, they suggest that further studies be undertaken because other researchers have found a negative relationship between per capita water use and retirement age. As household weekly income rises by 1 dollar, the percentage share spent on water drops by 0.389. This negative relationship indicates that water is a basic commodity. As income rises, the relative expenditure on water tends to decline. Ownership of the dwelling occupied by a household is significantly associated with share of water expenditures. Relative to owners, renters tend to have a lower percentage share spent on water by 0.919. This could be due to a number of reasons. One is that renters are less likely to have large gardens or swimming pools. It is also likely that as Hoffmann, Worthington and Higgs (2006) reported, landlords pay for water consumption up to a legislated amount causing renters to minimise their water usage to avoid paying for extra water used. Household size; the household reference person’s looking for work status, main occupation and its labour force status; number of children under 15 years old; education degree; household size and dwelling structure are found to have no significant effect on share of household expenditures on water in the final model. 5.2

Share of household expenditure on Energy

The results of the estimated OLS models for share of household expenditure on energy are shown in Table 3. In this study, energy covers electricity, mains and bottled gas. The initial model which has household income as the only explanatory variable yields an adjusted R² of 0.05. The additions of other explanatory variables contribute to a minimal increase of only 2 percentage points in the adjusted R² value. Model 5 was re-estimated using SUR to check for endogeneity. As there is minimal difference between the estimated coefficients of the SUR and OLS, Model 5 is used as the final model for the discussion below. The percentage share of household expenditure spent on electricity and gas rises by 0.281 when the household reference person belongs to an older age group. Older people, particularly the elderly tend to live alone and consume more electricity than their younger counterparts (Ironmonger, Aitken and Erbas, 1995). They also tend to spend more time at home than younger people. This is consistent with the finding that young adults aged 18-24 are less likely to take steps in limiting their electricity use compared to the over 25 age group (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2010). 7 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 827


Table 3 – The share of household expenditures on energy (electricity and gas) Model 5

Variables

Estimate

t‐value

Intercept 0.957 0.241 1 Age group 0.281 3.476* Ln(household income) 1.435 1.209 Ln2(household income) ‐0.159 ‐1.777 Ln(household size) ‐0.036 ‐0.165 Number of children under 15 0.233 2.476* 1 Education degree ‐0.317 ‐4.556* 2 Looking for work status 0.025 0.318 1 Main occupation Number of earners in the household 2 Labour force status in main occupation 0.048 0.686 Occupation in main job ‐0.017 ‐0.575 Number of employed persons in the household ‐0.113 ‐1.031 2 Dwelling structure ‐0.146 ‐3.393* 2 Ownership ‐0.094 ‐0.632 N 1691 R 0.352 F‐value 19.748 R Square 0.124 Adjusted R Square 0.117 * t‐values that are significant at p‐value=0.05 1 Transformed into a continuous variable using Terza's method 2 Discrete variables were not transformed

Model 4

Model 3

Model 2

Model 1

Estimate

t‐value

Estimate

t‐value

Estimate

t‐value

Estimate

t‐value

0.821 0.372 1.393 ‐0.159 0.220 0.210 ‐0.325 0.009 0.027 ‐0.006 ‐0.150 1725 0.339 22.201 0.115 0.110

0.207 5.049* 1.173 ‐1.774 1.042 2.238* ‐4.690 0.116 0.384 ‐0.203 ‐1.362

10.086 0.364 ‐1.492 0.055 0.611 0.066 ‐0.181 0.056 ‐0.113 ‐0.194 0.128 1137 0.311 12.074 0.097 0.089

1.863 4.958* ‐0.969 0.504 3.106* 0.792 ‐2.902* 0.895 ‐1.844 ‐1.977* 0.500

‐0.702 2.108 ‐0.227 1744 0.244 55.070 0.059 0.058

‐0.179 1.820 ‐2.655*

9.541 ‐0.956 1744 0.236 102.735 0.056 0.055

14.535* ‐10.136*

It is not surprising that the number of children under 15 increases the percentage share spent on electricity and gas by 0.233. Based on the findings of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (2010), the more young people there are in a household, the more difficult it is to reduce electricity consumption. This is because younger consumers are less likely to care about how much electricity they consume. The educational attainment of the household reference person reduces the percentage share of household expenditure spent on electricity and gas by 0.317. The percentage share for a certificate holder will be 0.317 lower than those who have no non-school qualification. This result is supported by the study on environmental awareness conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (2010) which shows that those who do not have a non-school qualification are less concerned about the environment compared to those who have a nonschool qualification. The type of dwelling structure as shown in Table 3 also has a significant effect on percentage share of energy expenditures. A downward change in the type of dwelling could reduce the share spent on energy by 0.146. Those living in caravans would spend a smaller proportion of their weekly household expenditures on energy compared to those residing in flats and separate homes. This relationship could be explained by the lifestyle of flat dwellers. According to Lenzen, Dey and Foran (2004), those who live in flats tend to spend more time outside their home, causing their energy consumption to be transferred elsewhere Household income, although not significant in the final model, is by itself a significant factor and has the expected negative sign for a necessary good. This result is consistent with those obtained in the Netherlands ( Ferrer-i-Carbonnel and Van den Bergh 2004) and in the U.K. 8 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 828


(Baker et al 1989). In all these studies, the negative effect of income on the consumption of gas and electricity is supported. According to Baker et al (1989), rich households that are already consuming high levels of energy are not expected to increase their consumption further. The addition of age, education, occupation and other explanatory variables as shown in Table 3 causes household income to have no significant effect on share of household energy expenditures. The variables that are found to also contribute to a rise in the share of household energy expenditures but are not significant include the looking for work status, labour force status in the main occupation, main occupation, number of employed persons and tenancy status. 6.

Conclusions

The results of the empirical analysis presented in this paper support the idea that a wide range of household characteristics is relevant in explaining household water and energy consumption patterns. While the age group of the household reference person affects the share of expenditures on both water and energy, household income and ownership have a significant effect on the share of water expenditures only. The share of household expenditures on energy on the other hand, is determined by number of children under 15, education, and dwelling structure. As this study is exploratory in scope and limited to a single state only, further analysis needs to be undertaken to include data from the entire national sample. Nonetheless, results of the current study serve to indicate that certain demographic characteristics of households need to be taken into consideration when designing policies and programs for sustainable energy and water consumption. In order to successfully design policies for sustainable consumption, policy makers need information about the sensitivity of consumption to variables (determinants) that can be influenced or controlled. They also need information on how consumption of specific goods and services impacts on the environment. The results of this study suggest that policies aimed at changing consumption in order to lessen the pressure on the environment could seek to directly affect those characteristics which greatly influence household consumption decisions. Ways to do this may include the use of commutative instruments like education and advertising.



References Alessie, R. and Kapteyn, A. (1991). “Habit Formation, Interdependent Preferences and Demographic Effects in the Almost Ideal Demand System”, Economic Journal 101, 404-419. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2008). Technical Manual Household Expenditure Survey and Survey of Income and Housing – Confidentialised Unit Record Files Australia 2003-2004 (Third Edition), Cat. No. 6540.0.00.001 (Embargo: May 2008). Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2009). Australian Social Trends, Cat. No. 4102.0 (June). Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) (2010). Australian Social Trends, Cat No. 4102.0 (June), pp. 8-12. Baker, P., Blundell, R. and Micklewright, J. (1989). Modelling Household Energy Expenditures Using MicroData. The Economic Journal, 99 (September 1989), 720-738. Barrett, G. and Wallace, M., 2009. Characteristics of Australian Urban Residential Water Users: Implications for Water Demand Management and Whole of the System Water Accounting Framework. Water Policy, 11, 413-426. Barten, A.P. (1993), “Consumer Allocations Model: Engel Curves and Consumer Demand”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(4), 129-158. Billings, R.B. and Day, W.M., 1989. Demand Management Factors in Residential Water Use: The Southern Arizona Experience. Journal of the American Water Works Association, 81(3), 58-64. Deaton, A.S. and Muellbauer, J.N., (1980). An Almost Ideal Demand System. American Economic Review, 70(3), 312-26. Fien, J., Cameron, C. and Bentley, M. (2008), “Youth Can Lead the Way to Sustainable Consumption”, Journal of Education for Sustainable Development, 2, 51-60. Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A. and Van Den Bergh, J.C.J.M. (2004). A Micro-Econometric Analysis of Determinants of Unsustainable Consumption in The Netherlands. Environmental and Resource Economics, 27, 367-89. Hoffmann, M., Worthington, A. and Higgs, H. 2006. Urban Water Demand with Fixed Volumetric Charging in a Large Municipality: The Case of Brisbane, Australia. Journal of Agricultural Resource Economics, 50 (3), 347-359. Ironmonger, D.S., Aitken, C.K. and Erbas, B. (1995). Economies of Scale of Energy Use in Adult-Only Households, Energy Economics, 17, 301-310. Lenzen, M., Dey, C. and Foran, B. (2004). Energy Requirements of Sydney Households. Ecological Economics, 49, 375-399. Michaelis, L. (2000). Drivers of Consumption Patterns, in Heap, B. and J. Kent eds., Towards Sustainable Consumption: A European Perspective. London/Oxford: The Royal Society, 75-84. Norton, B.R., Constanza, R. and Bishop, R.C. (1998). The Evolution of Preferences. Why Sovereign Preferences May Not Lead to Sustainable Policies and What to Do About It? Ecological Economics, 24, 193-211. Schleich, J. and Hillenbrand, T. (2009). Determinants of Residential Water Demand in Germany. Ecological Economics, 68(6), 1756-1769. Stern, D.I. (1997). Limits to Substitution and Irreversibility in Production and Consumption: A Neoclassical Interpretation of Ecological Economics, Ecological Economics, 22, 197-215. Terza, J.V. (1987). Estimating Linear Models with Ordinal Qualitative Regressors. Journal of Econometrics, 34(3), 275-291. United Nations Conference on Enviroment (UNCED), (1992). Agenda 21. Accessed website on 19th June 2010. Website: http://www.eoearth.org/article/United_Nations _Conference _on_ Environment and_Development_(UNCED),_Rio_de_Janeiro,_Brazil



Design for Sustainable Development: A Framework for Sustainable Product Development and its Application to Earthmoving Equipment Vickers, Mr. Jeffrey J.*† (Presenter) and Boyle, Dr. Carol A.* * Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Auckland, New Zealand † Actronic Technologies, Auckland, New Zealand Address correspondence to Jeff Vickers: Email: [email protected]; Post: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland Mail Centre, Auckland 1142, New Zealand Intended category: Evolutions in Technology

Abstract Innovation to improve the eco-efficiency of products and services is often thought to take place at four levels: product improvement, product redesign, function innovation and system innovation. This paper presents a framework, Design for Sustainable Development (DfSD), to help organise action for product and service innovation within and between the lower three levels. At the highest level (function innovation), the graphical scenario-building technique Scenario Network Mapping is used to explore and chart possible future developments for the current market of the product or service. The scenarios take a long-term (20 year) perspective and are constructed through dialogue with key stakeholders. New product/service concepts can then be ‘tested’ against these scenarios for robustness (i.e., performance under multiple scenarios) and adaptability. Once a concept is selected, product and technology roadmaps are drawn up to plan the development of the product/service and the different social and environmental benchmarks that should be met generation-by-generation. At the lower levels (product improvement and product redesign), techniques such as life cycle assessment, ecodesign and material blacklists are used to help optimise the current product/service offering and comply with relevant legislation. The framework is illustrated by a case study focusing on the use of wheeled loaders in the construction aggregates industry up to the year 2030.

1 Introduction The transition to a sustainable society will challenge the capacity of countries everywhere to change and adapt. Some adjustments will occur in response to economic forces, some in response to public policy changes, and still others as a result of voluntary changes in lifestyles. (L. Brown, 1981, p. 284) Lester Brown’s words seem fitting for this conference, Transitions to Sustainability, despite the fact that nearly thirty years have passed since they were written. However, it was not until some years later that sustainable development started to gain widespread recognition. Its popularity in the late 1980s and 1990s was partly due to Our Common Future, the influential report that defined sustainable development as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (WCED, 1987, p. 43), and also the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development that followed in 1992. Since then sustainable development has been adopted as a guiding principle of organisations and governments throughout the world (Kates et al., 2005). Yet, despite widespread acceptance of the WCED (Brundtland) definition as a general



definition, the question of how to translate sustainable development into practice remains at the centre of ongoing debate (Kates et al., 2005) and human development remains far from sustainable (e.g., UNEP, 2007). This paper presents a framework, Design for Sustainable Development (DfSD), which assists firms to significantly improve the environmental and social performance of their products and services through a series of incremental, but far-sighted, steps. Its application is illustrated by a case study of wheeled front-end loaders for the construction aggregates industry. As the DfSD framework requires long-term innovation, this paper first presents brief reviews of the literature on innovation, sustainable product/service design and futures studies.

2 Innovation for Sustainable Development Innovation that produces novelty – be it a new technology, a new product/service, a new process or new knowledge – may be driven by a perceived need (‘market-pull’), or, once an innovation emerges, a use for it can be sought (‘science/technology-push’) (e.g., Mansfield and Wagner, 1975, p. 183). This distinction between supply- and demand-side factors is, however, somewhat artificial (e.g., Nelson and Winter, 1977; Dosi, 1982). Both the supply of novelty and the need for it co-evolve (Rip and Kemp, 1998). To use a crude example, a person cannot need a faster personal computer unless they already have a relatively slow one. In this evolutionary view of technological change, it is therefore helpful to think of ‘society’ and ‘technology’ as two interdependent parts of a ‘socio-technical system’ (e.g., Rip and Kemp, 1998). A socio-technical system can be divided into any number of levels. However, various authors (e.g., Rip and Kemp, 1998; Kemp et al., 2001; Geels, 2002) choose three: niches, regimes and landscape. A niche is a protected pocket of innovation, a regime is a dominant combination of technologies and social practices (e.g., the personal motorcar regime), and the landscape is the set of long-term trends and practices by which society is structured, both in a physical sense (e.g., the layout of cities) and in a social sense (e.g., in the need for personal mobility) (Rip and Kemp, 1998). The interactions between the levels are illustrated below in Figure 1. Socio-technical Landscape Socio-technical Regimes Socio-technical Niches

Landscape is transformed Existing regimes shape novelty Novely

Technology evolves, is taken up and may modify the regime Technology remains a niche player

Failed innovation

Time

Figure 1: Socio-technical change through novelty creation and adoption (adapted from Rip and Kemp, 1998; Kemp et al., 2001; Geels, 2002)

Each level is constantly changing as new innovations are trialled and either adopted or discarded. At the regime level, innovation is incremental as it aims to improve upon an existing set of structures and maintain a kind of dynamic stability (Geels, 2002, p. 1260). Niche innovations, in contrast, may be radical and therefore may not align with the existing regimes (Schot, 1998; Geels, 2002, pp. 1260-1261). They may also be uncompetitive, at least initially, as they have received relatively little investment, there have been few opportunities to understand their strengths and weaknesses, and they do not benefit from economies of scale



(Rip and Kemp, 1998, p. 328). Yet both can exist concurrently because niches occupy domains within society protected by conditions that do not apply to the dominant regimes, e.g., government subsidies. The conditions that support the niche are therefore necessary for its continued survival and further development as well as learning and relationship-building among niche actors (Rip and Kemp, 1998). If this supportive environment ceases to exist, the niche must either collapse or be adopted by a regime, in which case it must be sufficiently well developed to be perceived as useful by the regime (Nelson and Winter, 1977, p. 62).

3 Sustainable Product/Service Design Rapid growth of the global human population over the past few centuries has dramatically increased the scale of the world’s economies. This has both led to and been supported by ever-increasing flows of products and services, each of which has an impact upon the natural environment due to the materials and/or energy it requires. In order to assess and reduce these impacts, a significant body of research has developed over the last two decades under various names, e.g., life cycle assessment (LCA), eco-design, Design for Environment (DfE), Design for Sustainability (DfS or D4S) and sustainable product design/development.

Eco-efficiency improvement (Factor X)

As a design progresses from an abstract idea to a concrete product or service, its costs and its impacts become increasingly locked in (Lewis and Gertsakis, 2001, pp. 13-15). In order to make large improvements in economic and environmental performance, it is therefore necessary to reverse the design process, i.e. to move from the concrete to the abstract, and to conceptualise new ways of meeting the needs fulfilled by the current product/service. System innovation 20

Function innovation

10 5 2

Redesign Improvement

Incremental

5

Time (years) 10

20

30

Radical

Figure 2: Four levels of eco-efficiency improvement (adapted from Brezet, 1997)

Eco-efficiency, a ratio of economic value or cost to environmental impact or improvement (Huppes and Ishikawa, 2005), is a common benchmark to assess the relative performance of a set of concepts. The scope for improving eco-efficiency depends upon the degrees of freedom available for innovation (Brezet, 1997) and is therefore relatively low for an existing product, which has a defined form and function, and relatively high for improving the provision of a social need. This is illustrated above in Figure 2. As an example, to reduce the emissions of a car, a designer could add a catalytic converter (product improvement), redesign the engine to be more fuel efficient (product redesign), design and promote lightweight two-person cars as a more efficient means of urban commuting (function innovation), or participate in the design and/or implementation of a flexible mass transit system as an alternative means of mobility (system innovation). As higher levels of eco-efficiency may require more significant behavioural change, these innovations are likely to take longer to diffuse within society, hence the staggering of each strategy along the x-axis.



4 Future Scenarios for Opportunity and Threat Identification As radical innovations may take decades to diffuse within society (Figure 2), and as there are many possible ways in which they may be adopted and used, it is difficult to make singlepoint forecasts with any accuracy. One approach to manage this uncertainty is to explore multiple possible futures. Decisions can then be assessed based upon their performance in the various scenario worlds. There are many ways in which scenarios can be constructed (e.g., Bishop et al., 2007). A common approach, popularised initially by Schwartz (1991), and referred to as ‘critical uncertainties’ by van der Heijden et al. (2002) and the ‘GBN matrix’ by Bishop et al. (2007), maps out driving forces in two-dimensional space: one axis represents the degree of certainty and the other represents the degree of importance to the entity’s future. Unimportant drivers can safely be ignored, drivers that are both relatively certain and critical are ‘predetermined elements’ and become the baseline for all scenarios, and drivers that are both critical and uncertain define the differences between scenarios. The number of scenarios depends upon the number of critical uncertainties. With two critical uncertainties there would be a maximum of four scenarios (low A + low B; low A + high B; high A + low B; high A + high B), three uncertainties yields nine scenarios, four yields 16, and so on. In practice, there may be fewer scenarios as certain combinations of the critical uncertainties may be considered implausible or sufficiently similar by the scenario builders. There are several problems with this approach. Firstly, the scenarios are often presented in a way (e.g., squares in a two-by-two matrix with self-contained storylines) that makes them appear mutually exclusive, yet they often play out together (Liebl, 2002, p. 175). This is to be expected because, even if the scenarios are mutually exclusive for a single entity or a single action, multiple combinations may occur when multiple entities and/or actions are considered. For example, Randall (1997) presents four scenarios for the Internet in 2000, the themes of which are: (1) interaction, entertainment and community; (2) information repository; (3) electronic commerce; and (4) an unstructured frontier. While these scenarios were never intended to be mutually exclusive (p. 159), the Internet of today is made up of elements from each scenario, for example: (1) media streaming and social networking websites; (2) online journal databases; (3) online auctioneers and retail giants; and (4) peer-to-peer file sharing. This is problematic because all of the indicators (drivers) of change Randall (1997) identified, except some from his frontier scenario, played out at a similar time. From the perspective of the scenarios’ users, it would have been difficult to identify which one was occurring. Secondly, the scenarios focus on the extremes of each critical uncertainty. It is unlikely that such extremes will occur in practice; what is more likely is a novel combination between various drivers of change (Liebl, 2002, p. 175). Thirdly, the scenarios are often presented as a snapshot of a possible future state. While this can lead to compelling narratives and stimulate creative thinking, the steps required to reach each scenario are often underemphasised. To create a roadmap, however, you need to know how to get from A to B. Furthermore, a compelling narrative can be hard to ‘unlearn’ (Liebl, 2002, p. 175) and yet unlearning is crucial because much of the power from scenarios comes from their ability to stimulate a strategic conversation (van der Heijden, 2005) and such a conversation must develop over time as new information becomes available. An alternative approach, Scenario Network Mapping (List, 2005), explicitly reveals the underlying logic of the scenarios by presenting them as chains of cause-and-effect links. Each event may have multiple causes and may be a cause of multiple future events. For an example of a scenario network map, please see Figure 4 on page 7.



5 The Design for Sustainable Development (DfSD) Framework As each level of innovation presented in Figure 2 has a different time horizon and a different scope, they can be tackled at different levels within an organisation. In the context of a firm, improvement and redesign of existing products and services are tasks already performed by product development teams and practitioners. On the other hand, function and system innovation are inherently strategic as they require a long-term perspective and define the firm’s future portfolio of products and services. STRATEGIC Scenario network map(s) for current and possible future markets

[where

Market-level opportunities and threats

= event]

Product/service/organisational concepts TACTICAL Product/service/ organisational roadmap(s) Specification (incl. increasingly strict social, ecological performance criteria)

Time

Product/service/organisational possibilities

se ea

r el

OPERATIONAL Benchmark and optimise socialecological performance across the entire product/service life cycle

Examples of product optimisation strategies source transform distribute use/act

supplier audits release reduce toxics reuse swappable parts reduce scrap airplane » ship recycle material labels automatic power-save mode

Today

20 years

Figure 3: Design for Sustainable Development (DfSD) Framework

The framework presented in Figure 3, Design for Sustainable Development (DfSD), provides a methodology for firms to manage innovation aimed at improving the social and ecological performance of their products and services. The starting point is to strip a product or service back to the functions it performs for its users or society at large. The next step is to identify one or more existing or potential market for this feature set. With the function(s) and market(s) in mind, questions regarding the future should be developed as “the futures of [specified activity or concept] among [specified social group] in [specified location] during [specified time range]” (List, 2005, p. 209, original emphasis). In this case, the time horizon chosen is 20 years. While this number is somewhat arbitrary, it has been selected for several reasons: 1. It is sufficient time for function innovation (see Figure 2); 2. In most cases a product will undergo several major redesigns over a 20 year period, therefore potential future improvements can be mapped and phased in over time;



3. Given long diffusion times (often decades) for many radical technologies, it is likely that the seeds of change will be visible now; 4. It is the approximately the length of one human generation and therefore allows a firm to consider intergenerational equity, a crucial concept for sustainable development (WCED, 1987). The next step is to assemble a team and construct the scenario network maps (strategic level). The team must be a diverse group, each member of which has a stake in the future under study (List, 2005, ch. 5). The maps are typically created through a series of four workshops, though the format can vary (List, 2005, appendix 5). Once the scenarios have been created, different design concepts can be tested against them for robustness, a measure of the relative performance of each concept across the set of scenarios (Lempert, 2002, p. 7310). This robustness may be inherent to the concept or, alternatively, it may because the concept is easy to adapt to a range of circumstances (Lempert, 2002, p. 7310). (An alternative approach is to design a product or service that is expected to be a niche player. However, this strategy is inherently riskier as the chosen niche may not come into being as anticipated.) Once one or more concepts have been selected, roadmaps which chart their development over time can then be prepared. The use of networked scenarios and the separation of the market level from the product and technology levels makes DfSD compatible with popular roadmapping approaches, e.g. the T-Plan approach of Phaal et al. (2001a, 2001b). These roadmaps make it possible to phase in increasingly stringent social and environmental performance criteria over time while still ensuring that the product/service is developing in a way that is compatible with the firm’s longer-term goals. For example, generation B might be required to have 10% lower energy consumption than generation A. The change in shading between the strategic and the tactical/operational levels highlights that a new product/service must be developed in anticipation of a future (or ongoing) market need. The length of time between conceptual development and production/implementation varies from industry to industry, e.g., the time allowed for new product development might be less than a year for a consumer electronic product but several years for an industrial product. At an operational level, techniques to improve social and environmental performance, such as life cycle assessment and eco-design, can be applied at the various stages of the product /service life cycle. Detailed lists of techniques have been omitted as toolboxes for sustainable product design are widely available (e.g., Brezet and van Hemel, 1997; Lewis and Gertsakis, 2001; Robèrt et al., 2002; Wrisberg et al., 2002; Waage et al., 2005; Crul et al., 2009).

6 Case Study: Wheel Loaders for Construction Aggregates up to 2030 The product for this case study is the wheeled front-end loader, specifically wheeled loaders used in the construction aggregates industry in the industrialised world. As Scenario Network Mapping is intended for localised use so that all relevant stakeholders can be brought into the same room (List, 2005, appendix 5), the authors have modified the process so that it can be applied on a regional or global scale. In particular, the sessions from workshops 1 and 2 (List, 2005, appendix 5) were formulated as questions for phone interviews with key stakeholders, such as equipment manufacturers and aggregates producers. The remaining two workshops were condensed into one half-day session, which involved 19 people, mostly from Actronic Ltd., the company sponsoring this research. The next two sections present some preliminary outcomes from the phone interviews, workshop and desk research. The market level (construction aggregates) will be discussed first, followed by the product level.



Construction Aggregates (Market) Awareness of climate change Access to stone ↓

Urbanisation ↑

People per home ↓ Ascent of the personal car

Flood defenses, urban relocations

Aging infrastructure Housing ↑

Renewable energy generation plants

Shortages of aggregates predicted Synthetic aggs. (esp. from waste) ↑

Road building + Permitted stone maintenance reserves deplete

Imports

Alt. building materials↑

Opposition to new sites, expansions Reduce blasting, crushing waste Recycling ↑

Landfill restrictions High capital costs

Recycling near construction site

Industry consolidation

Expansions granted with conditions

Occupational safety & health regs. Stricter air, water emissions regs. Emerging economies’ oil use ↑

Cheap oil

Local buy-in

Monitoring + retrofitting

Manuf. costs ↑

Biofuel vs food

Crew, equipment on-demand

Urban sales yards

Freight costs ↑

Depletion of ‘easy oil’

Small quarries near build site

Large rural quarries by rail, water ↑

Road freight to rail, barge

Economy oil dependent

Underground crushed stone ↑

Marine crushed stone

Marine sand & gravel ↑

‘Sand to stone’ Lightweight aggs. ↑

Carbon = $

‘Grown homes’

New sites suiting conveyors or trucks ↑

Possible Product Roadmap for Volvo CE Gryphin Wheel Loader

L220X Plug-In Hybrid

L220X Hybrid + a/treatment

Off-Highway Powertrains (Example Only)

Environmental Concept Truck (series hybrid)

L220F Diesel-Electric Hybrid Gryphin Hybrid FL6 Hybrid (parallel)

I-SAM parallel hybrid platform Series hybrid platform

Turbo diesel, mechanical fuel injection Diesel infra.

Onboard computers

Catalytic converters Particulate filters Dieselelectric p/train

Biodiesel availability ↑ cost ↓

Turbo diesel + elec. fuel injection Research on high-density storage of electrical energy, e.g. fuel cells

Off-road air emissions regs. Ultra-low sulfur diesel

Super-/ultra-capacitor performance↑ cost↓ Solid state switches performance↑ cost↓

Turbo diesel, EFI, exhaust aftertreatment

Diesel price ↑

CO2 emission regs.

Dense elec. store

Diesel-electric + a/treat + plug-in/drive-over recharge parallel hybrid Series hybrid platform Inductive power transfer

Battery density ↑ efficiency ↑ cost ↓ HCCI research Natural gas infrastructure (regional) Time (approx. years)

Multi-fuel HCCI hybrid

LPG (hybrid?), EFI, a/treatment (reg.) 2010

2020

2030

Figure 4: Future scenarios for construction aggregates in the industrialised world and a possible roadmap for the Gryhpin wheel loader and its powertrain



6.1 Market-level: Scenarios for the (construction) aggregates industry Aggregates are granular materials that are suitable for use on their own or in a conglomerate with a binder, such as cement, lime or bitumen (Alexander and Mindess, 2005, p. 2; T. Brown et al., 2007, p. 1). Figure 5 below illustrates the sources and uses of aggregates in the USA in 2003. As can be seen, aggregates may be natural (i.e. from crushed stone or sand and gravel quarries), recycled (e.g. demolition waste) or synthetic/manufactured (e.g. furnace slag and fly/fuel ash). Typical uses of construction aggregates include concrete, asphalt, road bases, drainage, fill, railway ballast and shoreline armour rock (rip rap) for erosion control. Based on the US data, the bulk of natural aggregates are used in concrete (31%), road bases and coverings (26%), bituminous concrete (13%), fill (12%) and cement manufacture (5%). This means that the future of the industry is heavily dependent on the future of the construction sector. As emerging economies like China and India have much larger construction growth rates than industrialised countries, the Scenario Network Map in Figure 4 on page 7 focuses on industrialised countries only. 173

3.48 Scrap Cement 21.9 Plaster concrete plaster Water 83.0 Bituminous 3.18 5.28 523 Concrete material 8.57 Sand + 2.62 (crude oil) gravel Asphalt Fill (general) 0.785 147 shingles 11.0 Matting 13.4 9.69 Buildings Scrap Bituminous 36.3 258 19.2 asphalt aggregate Crushed 110 Asphalt 83.3 207 stone + 401 21.8 51.9 22.1 stone sand 64.5 9.98 Base + Road 457 851 coverings aggregate Landfill 9.8 11.5 330 325 Concrete 7.35 52.3 536 Roads Concrete 12.3 869 Concrete aggregate 35.8 120 103 Concrete 226 Water Fuel ash 11.1 SCM Rail ballast 23.5 12.8 3.35 3.67 51.9 2.26 Others Shore armour 1.71 Gypsum + 5.00 anhydrite Cement Slags 5.77 23.0 Filter stone 81.9 23.1 0.792 18.4 Imports + Cement 8.57 Other 0.289 kiln dust from stock 20.4 Other Infrastructure Clinker 11.8 123 13.5

139

45.3 CO2 2.86 1.97 7.20 Clay + Others shale

36.1 Lime manuf. 24.9 24.6 94.7

KEY:

Raw material stock

Waste sink

Sum (flow in = flow out)

Agriculture Other uses Non-Construction

End use (stock)

Flow (Mt) within the USA (excl. dependent territories) in 2003

Figure 5: Material flow analysis for construction aggregates, cement, concrete and asphalt concrete in the USA in 2003. Excludes materials for energy generation. All flows in million tonnes. (See Appendix A)



Construction aggregates are high-volume, low-value products (T. Brown et al., 2007). Natural aggregates are mined in a similar way to industrial minerals, typically using open cast surface mining (see Figure 6). However, unlike most minerals, their desirable quality is their bulk, which means they cannot be purified to reduce their mass or volume, making distribution a significant cost. The cost of transport by truck over 30-50 km can equal the cost of the aggregate itself (Wilson, 2007). New quarries are therefore either positioned near areas where there is expected to be significant demand for construction, e.g. near growing towns/cities, or near navigable waterways and/or railways so that the freight cost per unit distance can be reduced. However, as few job sites will be connected to the same railway or waterway as the producer, in many cases the final leg must be done by truck. In 2005, truck freight accounted for 90% of all transport for natural construction aggregates in the UK (T. Brown et al., 2007) and 92% in the USA (authors' compilation of data from Bolen, 2007; Willett, 2007). Extraction/processing variants › Fixed crushers + haul trucks (shown) › Mobile primary crusher + conveyors › Fully mobile plant (in-pit processing)

Overburden Drilling & removal blasting

Load-haul-dump

Crushing, screening, washing and blending

Yard loading variants › Wheel loaders (shown) › Hoppers/conveyors › Combination of above

Yard loading

Hauling by road/rail/water

Figure 6: Unit operations in a typical crushed stone quarry Urbanisation near quarry Furthermore, the need to position new sites near growing communities (due to + + Access to new high transport costs) can lock the quarry - Quarry’s sales stone reserves into a vicious cycle where increasing + + + urbanisation increases sales but also Total permitted + - Applications to NIMBYism decreases the quarry’s ability to access reserves enlarge reserves + new reserves, either because additional + + + land is not available or because of public Accepted Declined applications for applications for opposition (e.g., Kelly, 1998, p. 2). new reserves new reserves Opposition to new sites from local + residents is often informally labelled as + + Anticipated + ‘not in my back yard’ (NIMBY) and Community + Solid waste shortage of involvement restrictions may be due to a number of factors, aggregates including noise, dust, vibrations and + + + potential fly-rock from blasting, the Substitution with + Imported volume of large trucks entering/exiting alternatives Recycling aggregates (where possible) the site, fundamental alterations to the landscape from surface mining, and disruption of other species’ habitats. A Figure 7: Causal loop diagram showing the interactions selection of dynamics that often occur between the quarry and its surrounding community between a quarry and its surrounding community are given in Figure 7.



Reserves of natural stone are extremely large in many countries, to the point where they are often stated to be practically unlimited (e.g. Cammarota, 1992, p. 74). However, both the distribution of reserves and the ability to access them vary considerably. In the short term this means that quarries will attempt to extend their existing reserves as long as possible. Longer term, quarries may need to either relocate to rural areas that are near to waterways or rail, or, alternatively, actively engage the public and thereby reduce NIMBYism (see Figure 7). Given high freight costs, another, and perhaps the most radical, change would be not to buy aggregates in the first place, but rather to produce them on-site. Two examples include ‘grown homes’ where plants are grown on-site in such a way that they form structures (Joachim, 2010) and also the use of micro-organisms to alter the composition of soils, e.g. the use of the Bacillus pasteurii to create cemented sand (DeJong et al., 2006). As the ‘grown homes’ idea is the least well developed of the two, and has potentially high social barriers to overcome, it is placed outside of the 2030 horizon in light grey.

6.2 Product-level: Gryphin concept wheel loader by Volvo The product chosen for analysis is Gryphin, a concept wheeled loader for the 2020s designed in 2006/7 by Volvo Construction Equipment (‘Volvo CE’). This concept was selected for two reasons: (1) wheel loaders are common in quarries and sand and gravel plants; and (2) there is sufficient information in the public domain to allow a roadmap for Gryphin to be constructed (see Figure 4). As a concept vehicle, Gryhpin may never be fully realised; however, this roadmap is drawn as if it will be. It is intended to depict one set of possible development paths for illustrative purposes only. It is in no way linked to or endorsed by the Volvo Group. Gryphin’s conceptual design (Volvo CE, 2007a) features: •

High visibility from the cab using all-round smart glazing, which heats up to prevent frost and darkens in direct sunlight to prevent glare, and see-through structural pillars;

•

A middle- (rather than front-) mounted boom to reduce torsional stresses and increase front visibility;

•

Electric motors in each wheel to replace the driveline, decreasing weight, increasing ground clearance, improving traction control and allowing regenerative breaking;

•

Intelligent independent suspension to each wheel providing a smoother ride over rough terrain and allowing the loader’s frame to be lowered for high-speed travel and raised for increased dumping height;

•

Electric hybrid engine, replaced by fuel cells when they become commercially viable, which improves fuel economy, reduces emissions and decreases engine bay size;

•

High stability as electrical cables allow components of the powertrain (e.g. electric motors) to be positioned for stability, rather than mechanical connections;

•

Extendable counter-weight at the rear of the loader provides greater reach; and

•

Multi-function joysticks in the cab replace the steering wheel and levers.

Figure 4 consists of three levels: the market level, the product level and the technology level. In order to display the map on a single page, only the roadmap for powertrain technology is presented. A full roadmap would also consider the chassis, hydraulics, suspension, etc. Volvo CE unveiled its first step towards Gryphin in 2008: the prototype L220F Hybrid Wheel Loader. It has all the features of Volvo CE’s existing L220F loader: articulated steering, loadsensing hydraulics for the boom/bucket, a turbo-charged diesel engine with electronic fuel injection, exhaust gas recirculation and air-to-air cooling, an automatic transmission, wet disc



brakes, and a range of safety, maintenance and operator comfort features (Volvo CE, 2007b). The major change is the addition of Volvo Group’s I-SAM (Integrated Starter Alternator Motor) hybrid powertrain (Volvo CE, 2007a). This supplements the diesel engine with an electric motor that: (1) is used at start-up and at low speeds instead of the diesel engine, as this is the point where the engine is least efficient; (2) acts as an alternator to provide electricity to the air conditioning, lights and other electrics, allowing the engine to be switched off when it would normally need to idle; and (3) provides a power boost to the engine (Volvo CE, 2007a). The I-SAM is run directly by the engine or from a battery pack that is recharged either by the engine when it is operating at a point of high efficiency, or when the loader brakes (i.e. the electric motor acts as a generator) (Volvo CE, 2007a). The specifications of the L220F, L220F Hybrid and Gryphin are given below in Table 1. Table 1: Brief specifications for Volvo Construction Equipment’s L220 wheel loaders (estimates in grey)

Model L220F L220F Hybrid L220X (Gryphin) Launch 2007 2012 2025 Hybrid Type None Parallel Series Transmission Automatic (mechanical) Automatic (mechanical) Electric Gross motor power (kW) Diesel 261 261 200 Electric -50 250 Hybrid. factor 0% 16%* 56%** Peak motor torque (Nm) Diesel 1756 1756 1400 Electric -700 1800 * Hybridisation factor = PEM / (PEM + PICE) (Lukic and Emadi, 2004) ** For a series hybrid, the electric motor is the sole source of propulsion Hybrid vehicles are defined as vehicles that can utilise two or more energy sources for propulsion (Emadi et al., 2005, p. 763). They can be broadly classified as series, parallel, or some combination thereof (Chan, 2007). As I-SAM-equipped vehicles can be driven by the diesel engine, the electric motor, or both together, they can be classified as parallel hybrid vehicles. A series hybrid is driven only by the electric motor; all other energy sources (e.g., diesel engine and battery) provide power to this motor. A parallel hybrid has the advantages that it requires a relatively small electric motor and battery pack and needs only two propulsion devices (internal combustion engine and electric motor), whereas a series hybrid requires three (ICE, electric motor and generator), making its implementation potentially more expensive and also decreasing efficiency due to the additional conversion steps (Chan, 2007, p. 708). The series hybrid has the advantage that it can always run the ICE near the point of maximum efficiency; however, Katrasnik et al. (2007) have shown that, for their test equipment, the losses due to the energy conversion steps in the series hybrid make it less efficient that the parallel hybrid under most driving conditions. Volvo Group experimented with a series gas-electric hybrid Environmental Concept Truck in the early 1990s (Volvo Trucks, 2010). Perhaps it is telling that their next experiment was a diesel-electric parallel hybrid FL6 truck in the late 1990s (Volvo Trucks, 2010). In order to implement the Gryphin’s series hybrid powertrain, Figure 4 requires improved battery charge-discharge efficiency and improved solid state switching performance, together with lower cost.



Of the market level trends which are important to the future of the wheeled loader, changes in market composition are most relevant. Many of the ‘end points’ in Figure 4 are favourable for wheeled loaders. Construction aggregate recycling typically requires a wheeled loader or excavator to lift rubble into trucks (off-site recycling) or crushers (on-site recycling). The size of construction project would determine whether a relatively large loader like an L220 would be needed. Expansions of existing quarries and the creation of small quarries with mobile ondemand crews favours current quarry layouts where wheeled loaders are commonly used to load trucks in the yard and may also be used to load haul trucks at the blast face. The biggest risks identified are posed by marine sand and gravel, which uses dredges, and super quarries, which may make greater use of front shovels and excavators for heavy digging and conveyor systems to load trains or barges. Wheeled loaders are still likely to feature, however, perhaps in (un)loading trains/barges and perhaps in urban sales yards. Wheeled loaders can therefore be considered quite a robust technology for construction aggregates over the next 20 years, though the development of land-based super quarries and marine sand and gravel should be watched. Using the L220F as a baseline, and considering fuel as an example, fuel economy targets could be defined as: 10% by 2008 (current estimate for the L220F Hybrid); 20% by 2020 (L220X Plug-In Hybrid) and 30% by 2025 (Gryphin Hybrid).

7 Discussion and Further Work This paper presents a framework for sustainable product development, Design for Sustainable Development (DfSD), which assists product/service developers to chart the future of their products/services and then to set increasingly strict environmental and social performance criteria that can be phased in generation-by-generation. The rationale for such an approach is to ensure that a firm is designing the ‘right’ product/service before focusing development effort to optimise it. This is part of an ongoing study being conducted by the authors into the future of earthmoving equipment in the construction aggregates industry for the 20 years to 2030. The full results of this study will be published in the near future.

8 Acknowledgements The first author thanks Actronic Ltd. and the New Zealand Foundation for Research, Science and Technology (FRST) for funding part of this research. Both authors would like to thank Linda Shaw for facilitating the workshop in July 2009, Paul Corder and Tim Barnaby for their assistance in assembling the scenarios, 18 Actronic staff and one quarry industry expert in the workshop and 12 anonymous industry representatives who participated in phone interviews.

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Kemp, R., A. Rip, and J. Schot. (2001). Constructing Transition Paths Through the Management of Niches. In R. Garud & P. Karnøe (Eds.), Path Dependence and Creation (pp. 269-299). Mahwah, NJ, USA: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Lempert, R. J. (2002). A new decision sciences for complex systems. PNAS, 99(90003), 7309-7313. Lewis, H., and J. Gertsakis. (2001). Design + Environment: A Global Guide to Designing Greener Goods. Sheffield, UK: Greenleaf. Liebl, F. (2002). The Anatomy of Complex Societal Problems and Its Implications for OR. The Journal of the Operational Research Society, 53(2), 161-184. List, D. (2005). Scenario Network Mapping: The Development of a Methodology for Social Inquiry. Unpublished PhD thesis, University of South Australia, Adelaide. Retrieved from www.audiencedialogue.net/snm.html. Low, M.-S. (2005). Material flow analysis of concrete in the United States. Unpublished Masters, MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/33030. Lukic, S. M., and A. Emadi. (2004). Effects of drivetrain hybridization on fuel economy and dynamic performance of parallel hybrid electric vehicles. IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology, 53(2), 385-389. Mansfield, E., and S. Wagner. (1975). Organizational and Strategic Factors Associated with Probabilities of Success in Industrial R & D. The Journal of Business, 48(2), 179-198. Marceau, M. L., M. A. Nisbet, and M. G. VanGeem. (2007). Life Cycle Inventory of Portland Cement Concrete (No. SN3011). Skokie, IL, USA: Portland Cement Association. Marceau, M. L., M. A. Nisbet, and M. G. VanGeem. (2010). Life Cycle Inventory of Portland Cement Manufacture (No. SN2095b.02). Skokie, IL, USA: Portland Cement Association. Miller, M. M. (2005). Lime. In Minerals Yearbook, 2003 (Vol. 1). Washington, DC, USA: U.S. Geological Survey. Nelson, R. R., and S. G. Winter. (1977). In search of useful theory of innovation. Research Policy, 6(1), 36-76. Phaal, R., C. J. P. Farrukh, and D. R. Probert. (2001a). Fast-Start Technology Roadmapping. In T. M. Khalil, L. A. Lefebvre & R. M. Mason (Eds.), Management of Technology: The Key to Prosperity in the Third Millenium (pp. 275-284). Amsterdam, the Netherlands: Pergamon. Phaal, R., C. J. P. Farrukh, and D. R. Probert. (2001b). T-Plan - the fast-start to technology roadmapping: planning your route to success. Cambridge, UK: Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge. Randall, D. (1997). Consumer strategies for the internet: four scenarios. Long Range Planning, 30(2), 157-168. Rip, A., and R. Kemp. (1998). Technological change. In S. Rayner & E. L. Malone (Eds.), Human Choice and Climate Change (Vol. 2, pp. 327-399). Columbus, OH: Battelle Press. Robèrt, K. H., B. Schmidt-Bleek, J. Aloisi de Larderel, G. Basile, J. L. Jansen, R. Kuehr, et al. (2002). Strategic sustainable development -- selection, design and synergies of applied tools. Journal of Cleaner Production, 10(3), 197-214. Schot, J. W. (1998). The usefulness of evolutionary models for explaining innovation: the case of The Netherlands in the nineteenth century. History of Technology, 14, 173-200. Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View. New York, USA: Doubleday. Sullivan, J. (1996). Pavement Recycling (No. FHWA-SA-95-060). Washington, DC, USA: Federal Highway Administration. Tepordei, V. V. (2005). Stone, Crushed. In Minerals Yearbook, 2003 (Vol. 1). Washington, DC, USA: U.S. Geological Survey. UNEP. (2007). Global Environmental Outlook: GEO-4. Valletta, Malta: United Nations Environment Programme.



USEPA. (2009). Estimating 2003 Building-Related Construction and Demolition Amounts (No. EPA530-R-09-002): United States Environmental Protection Agency. van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation (2nd ed.). Chichester, UK: Wiley. van der Heijden, K., R. Bradfield, G. Burt, G. Cairns, and G. Wright. (2002). The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios. Chichester, UK: Wiley. van Oss, H. G. (2005a). Cement. In Minerals Yearbook, 2003 (Vol. 1). Washington, DC, USA: U.S. Geological Survey. van Oss, H. G. (2005b). Slag—Iron and Steel. In Minerals Yearbook, 2003 (Vol. 1). Washington, DC, USA: U.S. Geological Survey. Volvo CE. (2007a). Gryphin - The day after tomorrow... Retrieved from http://www.volvo.com/dealers/en-gb/vcegb/products/Innovations/concept_wheel_loader. Volvo CE. (2007b). Volvo Wheel Loaders L150F, L180F, L220F. Retrieved from http://www.volvo.com/constructionequipment/na/enus/products/wheelloaders/wheelloaders/L220F/. Volvo Trucks. (2010). Towards sustainable transportation. Retrieved from http://www.volvotrucks.com/TRUCKS/UK-MARKET/ENGB/ABOUTUS/ENVIRONMENT/VOLVO_FM_HYBRID_CONCEPT/DEVELOPMEN T/Pages/Development.aspx. Waage, S. A., K. Geiser, F. Irwin, A. B. Weissman, M. D. Bertolucci, P. Fisk, et al. (2005). Fitting together the building blocks for sustainability: a revised model for integrating ecological, social, and financial factors into business decision-making. Journal of Cleaner Production, 13(12), 1145-1163. WBCSD. (2009). Recycling Concrete. Retrieved from www.wbcsdcement.org/recycling. WCED. (1987). Our Common Future, Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. Willett, J. C. (2007). Stone, Crushed. In Minerals Yearbook, 2005 (Vol. 1). Washington, DC, USA: U.S. Geological Survey. Wilson, J. J. (2007). The Aggregate Business in the U.S.A. Paper presented at Institute of Quarrying (New Zealand) Jim Macdonald Memorial Lecture Tour, New Zealand. Retrieved from http://www.ioqnz.co.nz/uploads/JoyWilson-NZ.pdf. Wrisberg, N., H. A. Udo de Haes, B. Bilitewski, S. Bringezu, F. Bra-Rasmussen, R. Clift, et al. (2002). Demand and supply of environmental information. In N. Wrisberg, H. A. Udo de Haes, U. Triebswetter, P. Eder & R. Clift (Eds.), Analytical Tools for Environmental Design and Management in a Systems Perspective (pp. 1-107). Dordrecht: Kluwer.



Appendix A

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

A B D E F MATERIAL FLOW ANALYSIS FOR CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS IN THE U.S.A. IN 2003 Limited to selected construction materials in the continental USA for the 2003 calendar year. Excludes minor flows and materials for energy generation. All masses in million metric tonnes (Mt). Data, particularly waste and recycling, are approximate and valid to no more than 3 significant digits. Exiting Asphalt Asphalt shingles Asphalt shingles Bituminous aggregate Bituminous material Bituminous material Buildings, as. shingles Buildings, concrete Buildings, plaster Cement Cement Cement, other Cement imports, stock Cement kiln dust Cement kiln dust Cement plaster Clay & shale Clinker Clinker Clinker Clinker, other

28 Concrete 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

Concrete Concrete Concrete Concrete aggregate Crude oil Crushed stone, sand Crushed stone, sand Crushed stone, sand Crushed stone, sand Crushed stone, sand Crushed stone, sand Crushed stone, sand Crushed stone, sand Crushed stone, sand Crushed stone, sand Crushed stone, sand Crushed stone, sand Crushed stone, sand Fuel ash Fuel ash Gypsum & anhydrite Matting Other infrastructure Road aggregate Roads, base, cover

Entering Flow Formula Roads, bitumen 421 =C11+C10 Buildings, as. shingles 11.6 ='R'!C29 Landfill 1.45 ='R'!C28 Asphalt 401 ='R'!D3+C68+C71 Asphalt 19.2 =(('R'!D3+C71)/0.95)*0.05 Asphalt shingles 2.62 ='R'!C22 Landfill 8.53 ='R'!D28 Scrap concrete 83 =350*0.9072*0.55*C28/(C22+C28+C29+C30) Scrap concrete 3.48 =350*0.9072*0.55*C22/(C22+C28+C29+C30) Cement plaster 5.28 ='C'!D52 Concrete 120 ='C'!D51 Cement 2.26 ='R'!C56-'R'!C54 Cement 23.1 ='R'!B63+'R'!B66+'R'!B68-'R'!B67 Clinker 0.289 ='R'!B51 Landfill 11.5 =C25-C20 Buildings, plaster 21.9 ='C'!E52 Clinker 7.2 ='R'!B49 Carbon dioxide 45.3 =0.553*'R'!B39 Cement kiln dust 11.8 ='R'!B56-C26-C24 Cement 81.9 ='R'!B39 Clinker 1.97 ='R'!B55 =('C'!B13/('C'!B13+'C'!D13))*SUM('C'!I38:I40) Buildings, concrete 523 +('C'!B14/'C'!E14)*'C'!I48+'C'!I49 =('C'!D13/('C'!B13+'C'!D13))*SUM('C'!I38:I40) Other infrastructure 226 +('C'!D14/'C'!E14)*'C'!I48+'C'!I50 Roads, concrete 330 ='C'!I41 Scrap concrete 12.3 ='C'!H53 Concrete 869 ='C'!F51 Bituminous material 21.8 =C11+C12 Agriculture 24.9 ='R'!B15 Asphalt shingles 9.69 ='R'!C23+'R'!C24+'R'!C26 Bituminous aggregate 207 ='R'!B3 Clinker 123 ='R'!B48 Concrete aggregate 325 ='R'!B2 Fill 139 ='R'!B8 Filter stone 23 ='R'!B11 Lime manufacture 36.1 ='R'!B14 Other, construction 18.4 ='R'!B12 Other, non-construct. 94.7 ='R'!B16 Rail ballast 23.5 ='R'!B10 Road aggregate 457 ='R'!B4 Shore armour 51.9 ='R'!B9 Clinker 3.35 ='R'!B52 SCM 11.1 ='R'!B34 Cement 5 ='R'!D54 Asphalt shingles 0.785 ='R'!C25 Scrap concrete 35.8 =350*0.9072*0.55*C29/(C22+C28+C29+C30) Roads, base, cover 851 =D102 Fill 13.4 =0.262*(C57+C58)*(C45+C66)/(C30+C7)*0.33

*

1 1

2

3

1 4



Appendix A A 54 Roads, base, cover 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105

D E F 9.8 =0.192*(C57+C58)*(C45+C66)/(C30+C7)*0.33 4 =(C57+C58)*(C45+C66)/(C30+C7)*0.33-C53Roads, base, cover Other, construction 5.77 C54-C56 4 Roads, base, cover Roads, base, cover 22.1 =0.433*(C57+C58)*(C45+C66)/(C30+C7)*0.33 4 Roads, bitumen Scrap asphalt 110 110 5 Roads, concrete Scrap concrete 52.3 =350*0.9072*0.55*C30/(C22+C28+C29+C30) 1 Sand & gravel Bituminous aggregate 147 ='R'!C3 Sand & gravel Clinker 2.86 ='R'!B50 Sand & gravel Cement plaster 13.5 ='C'!F52 Sand & gravel Concrete aggregate 536 ='R'!C2+'R'!C6+('R'!C5-'C'!F52) Sand & gravel Fill 173 ='R'!C8 Sand & gravel Other, construction 20.4 ='R'!C12 Sand & gravel Other, non-construct. 24.6 ='R'!C16 Sand & gravel Road aggregate 258 ='R'!C4 SCM Cement 12.8 ='R'!D34 Scrap asphalt Bituminous aggregate 36.3 =C57*0.33 6 Scrap asphalt Landfill 21.8 =(1-73/91)*C57 7 Scrap asphalt Road aggregate 51.9 =C57-C68-C69 Scrap concrete Bituminous aggregate 11 =135*0.9072*0.09 8 Scrap concrete Concrete aggregate 7.35 =135*0.9072*0.06 8 Scrap concrete Fill 8.57 =135*0.9072*0.07 8 Scrap concrete Landfill 64.5 =D105-C71-C72-C73-C75-C76-C77 Scrap concrete Other, construction 8.57 =135*0.9072*0.07 8 Scrap concrete Shore armour 3.67 =135*0.9072*0.03 8 Scrap concrete Road aggregate 83.3 =135*0.9072*0.68 8 Slag Clinker 0.792 ='R'!B53 Slag SCM 1.71 ='R'!C34 Water Cement plaster 3.18 ='C'!G52 Water Concrete 103 ='C'!G51 *1 350M US tons C&D waste of which CEMENT MASS BALANCE * Clinker production (exluding Puerto Rico) Clinker imports (exluding Puerto Rico) Additions during milling (Puerto Rico ass. negligible) Cement produced in the USA Cement imports (exluding Puerto Rico) Cement exports (exluding Puerto Rico) Cement from stock (exluding Puerto Rico) Apparent consumption of Portland cement (+blends) -- Portland cement (including blends) -- Masonry cement Apparent consumption of Portland + SCMs -- Portland cement (including blends) -- Masonry cement * based on van Oss (2005a) Table 1

Mass

122.54 7.20 2.86 0.29 3.35 0.79 0.00 1.97 139.00 0.00 139.00

C Cement 1.64 0.01 0.00 0.15 0.04 0.33 5.00 0.09 7.26 4.24 11.50

D Combined 124.18 7.21 2.86 0.44 3.39 1.13 5.00 2.06 146.26 4.24 150.50

81.88 1.81 7.26 90.95 21.02 0.84 1.07 112.20 107.46 4.73 125.04 119.76 5.28

CEMENT+SCM BY END USE Mass Mass % Distributed Ready-mixed concrete * 79.00 74.17% 88.83 Concrete products * 14.70 13.80% 16.53 --brick/block 6.23 52.22% 8.63 --precast 3.81 31.94% 5.28 --pipe 1.89 15.84% 2.62 --others 2.77 0.00% 0.00 Contractors * 6.79 6.38% 7.63 --airport 0.22 4.80% 0.37 --road paving 3.60 80.45% 6.14 --soil cement 0.66 14.75% 1.13 --other 2.32 0.00% 0.00 Building material dealers * 3.61 3.39% 4.06 Oil well, mining, and waste stabilization * 1.44 1.35% 1.62 Government and miscellaneous * 0.97 0.91% 1.09 Total portland cement used in the USA ** 107.70 100.00% 119.76 Masonry cement used in the USA ** 4.75 5.28 Apparent consumption within the USA ** 112.44 125.04 * van Oss (2005a) Table 15; ** from van Oss (2005a) Table 9 minus SCM in cement from Table 6



Appendix A, Cement and Concrete (Worksheet "C")

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

A B C D E F G H I CEMENT USE BY TYPE [Low (2005) Table D 6 with data from "CEMENT+SCM BY END USE"] Mass Mass % Ready mix 88.86 71.0% Concrete products 16.53 13.2% Building materials 4.06 3.2% Mortar 5.28 4.2% Roads 6.14 4.9% Other infrastructure 4.20 3.4% Total 125.08 100.0% ESTIMATED CEMENT USE BY TYPE AND END USE * Buildings Roads Other Total Ready-mix 33.3% 32.0% 7.0% 72.3% Concrete products 6.2% 7.0% 13.2% Building materials 3.2% 3.2% Mortar 4.2% 4.2% Other infrastructure directly 7.0% 7.0% Total ** 47.0% 32.0% 21.0% 100.0% * Low (2005) Table 6.6 with updated data; ** Portland Cement Association, cited in Low (2005) p.188 RAW MATERIALS BY CONCRETE MIX * Raw materials (kg/m3) Cementitious Fine Coarse Silica Unit Solid Materials Water Agg. Agg. Fume Mass Waste Concrete Product 20 MPa Ready-Mix 223 141 830 1100 0 2294 24 30 MPa Ready-Mix 279 141 770 1200 0 2390 24 35 MPa Ready-Mix 335 141 710 1200 0 2386 24 Brick/Block 209 142 2033 0 0 2384 32 50 MPa Precast 504 178 550 1100 0 2332 76 70 MPa Precast 445 136 610 1100 56 2347 76 Arch. Precast 386 154 740 1100 0 2380 76 Pipes 280 109 0 2403 76 Mortar 307 185 785 0 0 1277 0 Road mix 279 395 650 999 0 2323 24 * Low (2005) Tables D 7, D 9-13; solid waste figures from Marceau, Nisbet & VanGeem (2007) EST. BREAKDOWN OF CEMENT USE BY CONCRETE MIX [based on Low (2005) Table 6.10] Cooncrete Type Product Mass % CM Concrete Agg. Water Scrap To infra. Ready-mix 20 MPa 36.3% 45.367 466.6932 392.6 28.69 4.8826 461.8106 30 MPa 1.2% 1.5122 12.95434 10.68 0.764 0.1301 12.82426 35 MPa 2.8% 3.5286 25.13183 20.12 1.485 0.2528 24.87903 Road mix 32.0% 40.012 333.1454 236.5 56.65 3.4419 329.7035 Subtotal 72.3% 90.42 837.925 659.9 87.58 8.707 829.217 Concrete products Brick/block 6.9% 8.6316 98.4584 83.96 5.865 1.3164 97.14198 50 MPa 1.4% 1.7596 8.141539 5.761 0.621 0.2653 7.876206 70 MPa 1.4% 1.7596 9.28029 6.762 0.538 0.3005 8.979778 Precast 1.4% 1.7596 10.84921 8.388 0.702 0.3464 10.50277 Pipes 2.1% 2.6186 22.47307 18.84 1.019 0.7108 21.76231 Subtotal 13.2% 16.529 149.203 123.7 8.745 2.939 146.263 Building materials 3.2% 4.0591 41.75646 35.13 2.567 0 41.75646 Other infrastructure 7.0% 8.7526 62.33938 49.9 3.684 0.626 61.71338 Total Portland Cement 95.8% 119.76 1091.22 868.7 102.6 12.27 1078.95 Mortar 4.2% 5.2764 21.94781 13.49 3.18 0 21.94781 Total 100.0% 125.04 1113.17 882.2 105.8 12.27 1100.9



Projecting the Full Pollutant Cycle from Coal Utilization to 2200: Understanding the Global Environmental Implications

Z Weng, G M Mudd, C Boyle

Projecting the Full Pollutant Cycle from Coal Utilization to 2200: Understanding the Global Environmental Implications Zhehan Weng1, Gavin M Mudd1,#, Carol Boyle2 1

Environmental Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Clayton, Melbourne, Australia; #[email protected] 2 Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand Major Theme: Limits to Growth

Abstract The mining and consumption of coal has long been a primary factor in global energy supply. Australia, Canada and the United States of America (USA) are four crucial coal exporters and consumers worldwide. Their historical coal production trends, future coal production trends, mining methods, coal quality trends are critical in determining the capacity and feasibility of global continuous coal use toward 2050 and beyond to 2200. As a finite and exhaustible resource, coal has a logistical ‘peak’ regarding its limited reserves and increasing demand. In order to predict the magnitude and timeframe of the ‘Peak’ of these four countries, Hubbertarian peak models are developed with a range of available coal production data to establish future coal production forecasts. Pollutant emissions such as sulfur dioxide and particulates associated with coal mining and use in electricity generation are important environmental constraints, although they often receive less attention than greenhouse emissions. Given the availability of pollutant release data from Canada, Australia and the USA, we assess the pollutant intensities associated with coal mining and electricity generation, and combine this with Hubbert peak models to project potential future pollution loads from coal mining and use. Overall, this paper uses historical data to project the future production of coal in Australia, Canada and the USA and combines this pollution intensity to assess the environmental implications of continued coal use. The paper therefore addresses two central themes of sustainability – that of resource depletion and pollution loads, both of which require careful scrutiny in the face of climate change, public health and related issues.

1

Introduction

Coal is a primary form of fossil fuels and it remains dominant in global energy supply (WCI, 2010). In 2007 coal contributed 135.23 billion GJ of energy, which accounts for 34% of global energy demand (IEA, 2009). For the foreseeable short-term future, coal will remain an important source of energy in meeting increasing global demand. However, as with any exhaustible natural resource, exponentially increasing coal use is inevitably accelerating the depletion of economical coal reserves. Furthermore, coal mining and consumption can cause significant environmental impacts, including water pollution, waste generation and especially greenhouse gas emissions. From an environmental sustainability perspective, it is critical to predict and evaluate future coal production trends combined with pollutant emissions. 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering & Science: Transitions to Sustainability Auckland, New Zealand – Nov 30.-3 Dec. 2010

1





This paper compiles and presents the available data on coal mining, with a particular emphasis on historical coal production trends, available resources, average coal quality (or rank), long term projections of coal production to 2200 and associated pollution loads such as sulfur dioxide, particulates and nitrous oxides. This is then discussed within a sustainability context of addressing issues such as resource depletion and pollution loads. 2

Methodology and Data Sources

The various aspects of sustainability investigated are assessed through the compilation of detailed data sets on coal mining, coal resources, coal quality and pollutant releases. 2.1 Data Sources The primary sources are historical government series/periodicals, industry sources and statutory environmental reporting sources (such as pollutant release inventories), specifically: Australia

• Mining, resources and quality – 1829-2008 (Mudd, 2009; ABARE, 2010; GA, var.) • Pollutant releases – 1999-2009 (NPI, 2010; Martin, 2010)

Canada

• Mining, resources and quality – 1886-1956 (NRC, var.-a), 1957-2008 (NRC, var.-b, 2010) • Pollutant releases – 1999-2009 (EC, 2010)

United States of America (USA)

• Mining, resources and quality – 1890-1975 (BoM, var.), 1976-2008 (DoE, 2009; EIA, var.) • Pollutant releases – 1999-2005 (EPA, 2010)

2.2 Hubbert’s ‘Peak Oil’ Model The rise and fall in petroleum production was first modelled by Hubbert (1956). A basic assumption of this approach is that the cumulative production of an exhaustible resource can be represented by a logistic growth/decay curve over time (Gaussian curves also work) (Cavallo, 2004). The logistic growth is given by:

where Qmax is the ultimate recoverable resource and a, b are constants. In this report, Qmax equals the cumulative coal production by time t plus the remaining recoverable resource. Several social and economical assumptions of the model include: (i) affordable prices for consumers and good profitability for owner of the resource; (ii) stable markets both in political and market rules; (iii) continuous increasing consumption; (iv) perception of limitless resources by producers and consumers: availability of imports; and (v) extraction costs, profit levels and technology development are kept in reasonable magnitude. 2.3 Projecting Pollution Potential The future modelling of pollution loads from coal mining are completed by linking pollutant metrics with annual production. That is, by taking ‘kg pollutant/t coal’ and t coal/year you derive kg pollutant/year. This is a simplified approach, which has the inherent assumptions and issues of Hubbert-style models, but nonetheless provides a starting point to consider the potential future pollutant loads associated with the coal industry. Ideally, linking pollutant metrics to future scenarios of environmental regulations and technology options for coal would be preferred, however, this would require considerable data collection and extensive analysis to ascertain the current situation and prospects to inform such scenarios. As such, this simplified approach was adopted as a pilot study to lay the foundation for future work. 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering & Science: Transitions to Sustainability Auckland, New Zealand – Nov 30.-3 Dec. 2010

2




3


Results: Coal Production and Projections

3.1 Australia Black coal is major product of Australian coal industry. New South Wales and Queensland are two primary states which provide 98 per cent of total black coal production in Australia (ABARE, 2010). Brown coal mining only occurs in Victoria and is all consumed by domestic electricity generation (Mudd, 2009; GA, var.).

Annual Coal Production (Mt/year)

525

420

Brown Coal

315

210

Black Coal

105

0 1830

1850

1870

1890

1910

1930

1950

1970

1990

Figure 1: Annual Australian coal production by main coal type (1830 to 2008) As illustrated in figure 1, black coal dominates national coal production. In the 1970s, the rapid increase in international demand for high quality coal has significantly stimulated Australian black coal production. By 2008, the annual production of black coal is 430.5 million tonnes (Mt) which accounts 86.7 per cent of Australian total coal production. There has been a 43 –fold growth since 1908. Brown coal production also has a continuous increasing trend since 1888. There has been an approximate three times increase from 23.34 Mt in 1968 to 66 Mt in 2008. As shown in figure 2, Australian coal production is projected to peak at ~950 Mt/year in 2052, based on total coal, or peaking in 2040 at ~730 Mt/year based on separate modelling of black and brown coal production. Peak coal production is therefore projected to occur by midcentury, and enters effectively a terminal decline. The correlation coefficients for all models are high, ranging from 98.3 to 99.3%, for either brown or black coal, total coal, or annual versus cumulative production models. In comparing the separate projections for black, brown or total coal, it is clear that brown coal will last longer, primarily due its lower extraction rate at present. This means, however, that coal quality will gradually decline as black coal peaks and wanes and brown coal begins to dominate coal production. By 2009, cumulative black and brown coal production in Australia was 11.58 and 2.26 Gt, respectively, with remaining economic resources reported as 43.8 and 37.1 Gt, respectively (GA, var.). Although it is commonly claimed that Australia has ‘centuries’ of coal resources remaining, it is clear that this is not the case and that peak coal will occur within the next few decades if existing production trends continue, but perhaps more importantly that coal quality will decline considerably as brown coal eventually dominates.

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Figure 2: Projected Australian coal production to 2200: black and brown separately modelled (left); total coal model (right) 3.2 Canada Canada mines bituminous and sub-bituminous coal and lignite, with recent production history shown in Figure 3. Canadian coal production experienced strong growth in the 1970s but has stagnated since the 1980s. Before the 1960s, bituminous coal accounted for over 80% of Canadian production. However, the mix of coal has changed dramatically. By 2006, annual production of sub-bituminous coal and lignite was 36.5 Mt, or 56.5% of annual production. 80

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Figure 3: Annual Canadian coal production by coal rank from 1931 to 2008 The forecasts of Canadian coal production toward 2200 are shown in Figure 4. The total coal model peaks with maximum annual production of 96.0 Mt coal in 2028. The bituminous coal model achieves maximum production of 46.4 Mt in 2033, while the sub-bituminous coal model has already reached its peak of 27.6 Mt in 2009. The model projects lignite to have the longest production period before reaching its peak of 26.5 Mt in 2050. Like Australia, Canadian coal will face a permanent decline in coal quality after 2040s due to the rising dominance of lignite over bituminous and sub bituminous coal. The correlation coefficients for all models are very high, ranging from 86.7 to 99.7%, for either brown, bituminous or subbituminous coals, total coal, or annual versus cumulative production models. 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering & Science: Transitions to Sustainability Auckland, New Zealand – Nov 30.-3 Dec. 2010

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Projecting the Full Pollutant Cycle from Coal Utilization to 2200: Understanding the Global Environmental Implications 100

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Figure 4: Projected Canadian coal production to 2200: all coal ranks modelled separately (left); total coal model (right) 3.3 United States of America (USA) According to Figure 7, there has been a substantial increasing trend of most ranks of coal production in the United States since 1960s, although anthracite has been virtually exhausted. Before 1968, the annual production records of coal in U.S. are dominated by high ranking coal of anthracite and bituminous coal. Sub-bituminous coal and lignite were considered as undesirable sub-products or wastes associated with high ranking coal mining. Since 1970s annual production of anthracite in U.S. has been consistently declining from 39.95 Mt in 1950 to 1.54 Mt in 2008. Annual production of bituminous coal also declined from a peak of 682.9 Mt in 1990 to 507.5 Mt in 2008. Like Australia and Canada, the mix of coal production has been shifted from high quality coals to lower quality coals (ie. increasingly lignite). 1,200


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Figure 5: Annual USA coal production by coal rank from 1949 to 2008 In Figure 6, the total model of annual production coal peaks at 1,414 Mt in 2067. The peak models for bituminous and sub-bituminous coal project annual production peaks of 848.5 and 1,482 Mt in 2026 and 2046, respectively, while lignite is projected to peak at 312.6 Mt in 2069. High rank coals, which include anthracite and bituminous coal, are depleting much faster than sub-bituminous and lignite production. The correlation coefficients for all models are very high, ranging from 88.4 to 99.5%, for either brown, bituminous or sub-bituminous coals, total coal, or annual versus cumulative production models. 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering & Science: Transitions to Sustainability Auckland, New Zealand – Nov 30.-3 Dec. 2010

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Projecting the Full Pollutant Cycle from Coal Utilization to 2200: Understanding the Global Environmental Implications 2,700


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Figure 6: Projected USA coal production to 2200: all coal ranks modelled separately (left); total coal model (right) 3.4 Coal Quality Trends The unit heat content of coal (GJ/t) is a crucial indicator in demonstrating coal quality. Given the ongoing rise in lignite production, and projected declines high quality coals, the effective average heat content of coal will continue to decline in Australia, Canada and the USA. Based on typical values (eg. ABARE, 2010; EIA, 2008), Australian coal’s average heat content has decreased from ~29 GJ/t in the early 1900s to ~25 GJ/t by 2008. Similarly, the average heat content of Canadian coal has reduced from ~25 GJ/t in 1949 to 22.3 GJ/t in 2008, while for USA coals the heat content declined from ~29 GJ/t in the 1950s to 23.5 GJ/t in 2008. A forecast of coal heat content is shown in Figure 7.

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Figure 7: Coal quality trends forecast toward 2200 4

Pollutant Releases and Emissions Intensity

4.1 Summary Data The principal air pollutants associated with coal mining and electricity generation are carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter with diameter less than 10 µm (‘PM10’), oxides of nitrogen (or ‘NOx’), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In Australia, Canada and the USA, annual emissions are reported through statutory government programs, namely the National Pollutant Inventory (NPI), National Pollutant Release 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering & Science: Transitions to Sustainability Auckland, New Zealand – Nov 30.-3 Dec. 2010

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Inventory (NPRI) and Toxic Release Inventory (TRI), respectively (see Martin & Mudd, 2010). Pollution release data was compiled and assessed for these countries (no data is publicly available for China), and summarised in Tables 1 and 2. Table 1: Pollutant loads associated with coal mining (kg pollutant/t coal) Total No. Mines Data Points Coal Type Avg Prod (Mt/yr) min PM10 avg max min SO2 avg max min NOx avg max min CO avg max min VOC avg max

QLD 5 50 Bit / SB 17.99 1.186 1.657 2.642 0.0002 0.006 0.011 0.197 0.326 0.620 0.140 0.207 0.368 0.046 0.054 0.092

NSW 4 40 Bit / SB 34.54 0.201 0.472 0.710 0.002 0.005 0.009 0.066 0.122 0.182 0.037 0.083 0.112 0.020 0.021 0.022

SA 1 10 SB 3.43 0.090 0.159 0.277 0.001 0.004 0.007 0.106 0.123 0.138 0.057 0.074 0.082 0.010 0.012 0.016

WA 2 20 Bit / SB 6.38 0.304 0.369 0.451 0.001 0.006 0.009 0.075 0.163 0.535 0.035 0.053 0.062 0.008 0.010 0.012

Canada Average# 10 Bit / SB / L 69.36 0.155 0.048 0.026 0.016 -

U.S.A. Average# 2,392 Bit / SB / L 1,026 0.017 0.0011 0.0018 0.003 0.0014 -

Notes: Bit – bituminous coal; SB – sub-bituminous coal; L – lignite. #Based on national pollutant load totals for the coal sector divided by total coal production (individual site data not available; one year’s data only).

Table 2: Pollutant loads associated with coal electricity generation (kg pollutant/ GWh) Total No. Power Plants Data Points Coal Type Electricity (GWh/yr) min PM10 avg max min SO2 avg max min NOx avg max min CO avg max min VOC avg max

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32 Bit / SB 47,595 0.032 0.048 0.057 3.489 3.770 4.034 2.050 2.361 2.591 0.061 0.064 0.066 0.011 0.011 0.013

18 SB 5,200 0.094 0.171 0.209 1.471 1.676 1.967 2.104 2.423 2.996 0.070 0.082 0.082 0.012 0.016 0.023

4 Bit / SB 3,216 0.200 2.980 5.916 7.834 9.159 10.804 1.921 3.544 6.174 0.162 0.190 0.224 0.013 0.015 0.018

6 L 27,156 0.155 0.168 0.181 1.768 1.826 1.885 1.658 1.659 1.660 0.363 0.482 0.601 0.010 0.010 0.011

Canada National Average# 10 Bit / SB / L 411,731 0.026 1.141 0.435 0.045 0.0014 -

Notes: Bit – bituminous coal; SB – sub-bituminous coal; L – lignite. #Based on national pollutant load totals divided by total electricity generation (individual site data not available).


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4.2 Projecting Pollution Loads As noted by Martin (2010), in major coal mining provinces there is evidence to show that pollution burdens are increasing – such as the Hunter Valley in Australia. Given the unit pollutant release metrics in Table 1 and their trends over time, these are combined with the peak models for total coal to project total pollutant burdens associated with coal mining. Further work is required in future to project coal-fired electricity production and associated emissions. Only Australia is presented, given that the results are similar due to the use of the peak coal production models, plus the fact that Canada and the USA only have one year of data (though with many points), with pollution burdens shown in Figure 8. 700

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Discussion

The data and modelling presented herein raises a number of issues – from the extent of coal production to its associated pollution during mining and combustion for electricity, as well as the various reporting systems used by mining companies and government. In the development of Hubbert-style curves for peak coal production in the USA, Canada and Australia, all models show a peak around the middle of this century, reminiscent of the famous “Limits to Growth” study – regardless of whether individual ranks or total coal was used. Although there are subtle to moderate differences, the models clearly show that, on the basis of finite economic coal resources, coal cannot continue to be relied upon indefinitely. It is also important to consider these projections in the light of the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios used for global climate change models, as they suggest that there may not be as much readily mineable coal as assumed in climate change modelling (see Mohr, 2010). The unit pollutant metrics was shown to vary widely, both for individual sites (ie. compare minimums and maximums in Tables 1 and 2) as well as between regions and countries. For example, unit SO2 emissions in coal mining ranged from 0.0011 kg SO2/t coal in the USA, averaging 0.006 kg SO2/t coal in Australia to 0.048 kg SO2/t coal in Canada. In electricity generation, unit SO2 emissions ranged from 1.14 to 9.16 kg SO2/GWh. Similarly, unit PM10 emissions ranged from 0.017 to 1.657 kg PM10/t coal or 0.026 to 2.98 kg/GWh. There are various factors which could explain this apparent volatility in unit pollutant metrics. Firstly, this variability is undoubtedly related to impurities in the coal (eg. high/low sulfur coals), though the coal rank does not automatically correlate to impurities (ie. lignite can be low in sulfur or bituminous coal can be high in sulfur). 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering & Science: Transitions to Sustainability Auckland, New Zealand – Nov 30.-3 Dec. 2010

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Secondly, the extent of pollution control is clearly critical in pollutant loads. In the lignite power stations of the Latrobe Valley, Australia, air pollution control technology such as electrostatic precipitators and wet scrubbers are used to capture sulfur dioxide and particulates from power station exhaust fumes. Finally, there appear to be substantive issues of difference between the data for the various pollutant release inventory systems. That is, the methodology used to monitor and/or estimate pollutant loads in the USA, Canada and Australia do not appear to be consistent. All of these countries have modern environmental regulations, as well as the project configurations largely being similar (mines and power stations) and it could be expected that unit pollutant metrics should therefore reflect this. Another major issue is the total pollution burden released by the ongoing expansion of the coal industry. Since the rise of environmental regulation in the USA in the 1970s (and similarly in Canada and Australia), there is sound evidence to show that pollution control technology has helped to reduce emissions and impacts while still facilitating an expansion of the coal industry, as shown in Figure 9.

Figure 9: Historical and projected pollution burdens associated with electricity, USA (MIT, 2007)

Although this demonstrates the positive effect that pollution control technology can have on reducing pollution burdens to the environment, the ultimate question is whether such technology is capable of coping with an ever-expanding coal industry, especially coal-fired electricity. That is, as shown by the pollutant loads for Australia, it can be expected that such loads will increase commensurate with production, and that it will take a substantive and sustained effort to amelioriate these loads. In some major coal regions regions of Australia, like the Hunter Valley, the cumulative impacts from growing pollution burdens is fermenting a growing grassroots community campaign for improved monitoring and environmental and public health outcomes (see Higginbotham et al., 2010). For greenhouse gas emissions, coal quality is critical since lower rank coals have less unit heat content and require more to be used for the same power output (hence higher unit CO2 metrics). At present, it would seem most likely that any version of allegedly ‘clean coal’ technology would require more energy to operate and lead to a faster resource depletion rate (although clean coal is clearly a technological utopia which can never be attained). For other important air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NOx, etc), it is not simply coal quality which is important for pollutant metrics and loads but primarily pollution control technology. 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering & Science: Transitions to Sustainability Auckland, New Zealand – Nov 30.-3 Dec. 2010

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6


Conclusion

This paper has compiled a range of data on coal mining and associated pollution loads, focussing on Australia, Canada and the USA. Despite confident assurances from the coal industry that we have ‘centuries left’, the reality is that coal production and use is most likely to peak by the middle of this century and begin an inevitable decline. Given the scale of coal use in these countries, this represents a critical issue to address in the long term. As shown by the compiled pollutant release metrics, there is often a wide range of unit metrics for coal mines and power stations. Whether this is the result of different systems and estimation methodologies or a true reflection on the variability of the real industrial world is hard to discern at present (this is a ripe area for future research). It is clear from that the pollutant metrics and modelling that it is just as critical to understand the growth in coal mining alongside issues such as pollution burdens, since this correlates to potential problems such as public health and environmental impacts. From an environmental sustainability perspective, it is critical to predict and evaluate future coal production trends combined with pollutant emissions. 7

Acknowledgements

I wish to express my greatest appreciation to Dr Gavin M. Mudd and Assoc Prof Carol Boyle for their support of this research. Australian pollutant emission data was willingly supplied by Tim Martin, based on his research work in this area. Additionally, this paper has been the result of the accumulation of reports and data from numerous companies and government agencies, which is much appreciated. All deserve thanks for their efforts in helping to understand the pollution burdens of modern times. 8

References

ABARE, 2010, Energy in Australia 2010. Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics (ABARE), Australian Government, Canberra, Australia, 98 p (www.abare.gov.au). BoM, var., Annual Coal Production Surveys. U.S. Bureau of Mines (BoM), USA, Years 1890-1975. Cavallo, A J, 2004, Hubbert’s Petroleum Production Model : An Evaluation and Implications for World Oil Porduction Forecasts. Natural Resources Research, 13(4), pp 211-221. DoE, 2009, International Energy Outlook 2009. U.S. Department of Energy (DoE), USA, 115 p (www.eia.doe.gov). EC, 2010, National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI). Environment Canada (EC), Canada (www.ec.gc.ca/inrp-npri/default.asp?lang=en). EIA, 2008, Annual Energy Review 2008. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy (DoE), USA, 225 p (www.eia.doe.gov). EIA, var., Annual Coal Report. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy (DoE), USA, Years 1976-2008 (www.eia.doe.gov). EPA, 2010, Air Emission Sources – Where You Live. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), USA (www.epa.gov/air/emissions/where.htm). GA, var., Australia’s Identified Mineral Resources. Geoscience Australia (GA), Australian Government, Canberra, Australia, Years 1999-2009 (www.ga.gov.au). Higginbotham N., Freeman S., et al., 2010. Environmental Injustice and Air Pollution in Coal Affected Communities, Hunter Valley, Australia. Health & Place, 16, pp 259-266. Hubbert, M K, 1956, Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels. Proc. “Spring Meeting, Southern District, Division of Production, American Petroleum Institute”, San Antonio, Texas, USA, March 1956, 57 p. IEA, 2009, World Energy Outlook 2009. International Energy Agency (IEA), Paris, France, 691 p (www.iea.org). 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering & Science: Transitions to Sustainability Auckland, New Zealand – Nov 30.-3 Dec. 2010

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Martin, T, 2010, Investigation of the National Pollutant Inventory as a Sustainability Tool: Analysis of Coal Mining and Coal-Fired Power Plants in the Hunter Valley and Latrobe Valley. Final Year Research Project, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Clayton, Australia, May 2010, 30 p. MIT, 2007, The Future of Coal: Options for A Carbon-Constrained World. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Boston, USA, 175 p. Martin, T & Mudd, G M, 2010, Investigation of the National Pollutant Inventory (NPI) as a Sustainability Tool. Proc. “4th Int. Conf. on Sustainability Engineering & Science – Transitions for Sustainability”, NZSSES, Auckland, New Zealand, Dec. 2010, 11 p. Mohr, S, 2010, Projection of World Fossil Fuel Production With Supply and Demand Interactions. PhD Thesis, Dept. of Chemical Engineering, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia, February 2010, 783 p. Mudd, G M, 2009, The Sustainability of Mining in Australia: Key Production Trends and Their Environmental Implications for the Future. Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University and Mineral Policy Institute, Revised April 2009, Monash University, Clayton, Australia, Research Report No RR5, 269 p (users.monash.edu.au/~gmudd/sustymining.html). NPI, 2010, National Pollutant Inventory (NPI). Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage & the Arts, Australian Government, Canberra, Australia (www.npi.gov.au). NRC, var.-a, Canadian Mineral Statistics. Natural Resources Canada (NRC), Ottawa, Canada, Years 1886-1956. NRC, var.-b, Canadian Mineral Yearbook. Natural Resources Canada (NRC), Ottwa, Canada, Years 1944-2008 (www.nrcan-rncan.gc.ca/mms-smm/busi-indu/cmy-amc-eng.htm). NRC, 2010, Energy Conversion Tables. National Energy Board, National Resources Canada (NRC), Ottwa, Canada, (www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/sttstc/nrgycnvrsntbl/nrgycnvrsntbleng.html, Accessed 03/04/2010). WCI, 2010, The Coal Resource: A Comprehensive Overview of Coal. World Coal Institute (WCI), London, UK, 44 p (www.worldcoal.org).


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Transitions in transit: future options for transport energy in New Zealand 1

A.G. Williamson1 and I.G.Mason2 Department of Chemical and Process Engineering, 2Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.

Abstract Transport contributed 20.1% of New Zealand’s GHG emissions in 2009. This, coupled with our current dependence on imported transport fuels provides a strong motivation to examine alternatives. In this paper we examine two conservative policy scenarios for the transition from internal combustion engine powered vehicles to electric vehicles, using transport data from an historic 10 year period. Electrification is an attractive option, but the transition to a largely electric car fleet is shown to be relatively slow. An orderly transition from our existing vehicle fleet is demonstrated to require a consideration of liquid biofuels. The land footprint requirements for liquid and gaseous biofuel production, and of electrification, are revealed and their implications discussed. It is concluded that biofuels will play an important role in moving toward a sustainable transport system, but that complimentary policy measures, including serious attention to transport patterns, will also need to be considered. Introduction Transport plays a major part in the New Zealand economy, and way of life. It is dominated by road transport, and in particular the light motor vehicle, due amongst other factors to the “long, skinny” geographic distribution of our main transport corridors, and our relatively low population density. New Zealand’s somewhat unique greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions profile, with nearly 50% of emissions due to agriculture, can tend to mask the fact that transport is a significant part of the profile. Transport accounted for 20.1% of total emissions, and 44.2% of non-agricultural emissions, in 2009 (MfE, 2010). Of the total transport emissions, road transport accounted for the overwhelming majority (89.8%), with coastal shipping and domestic aviation accounting for only 2.3% and 6.8%, respectively. Coupled with the long-term rising cost of oil and the prospect of unreliability of supply, plus New Zealand’s commitment to a reduction of greenhouse gases of 10-20% on 1990 levels by 2020 (NZ Government, 2009), this draws our attention to the transport sector as an important area to attack in relation to all of these problems. The adoption of biofuels in place of petrol and diesel, and the electrification of transport, have both been discussed as options for reducing GHG emissions and also gaining security of supply (e.g. PCE, 2010). The disadvantages of “first generation” biofuels have been well documented, whilst the history of the electric car has been long (e.g. Sovacool, 2008), and controversial - particularly in the popular media (e.g. Paine, 2006). In this paper we explore these topics in the New Zealand context, with particular reference to the nature of a transition from today, with a virtually 100% internal combustion engine powered light vehicle fleet, to a future involving biofuels and/or electric vehicles.

1



Transport energy options The two major types of road transport vehicles are light vehicles, used for passenger transport and which mostly burn petrol, and heavy vehicles, used for freight transport and which mostly use diesel. The proportions of the two fuels used were roughly equal in 2008, with 111PJ of petrol and 110PJ of diesel consumed (MED, 2009). Some of the substitutions we shall consider are applicable to both types of fuel use and some are applicable only to one. These differences arise because of the different types of engine used to burn diesel and petrol and to the different ways in which the energy storage can be carried on, or brought to, the vehicle. Reduction in the use of fossil fuels for transport can be made in a number of ways. These include: 1) Retaining the fuel types but changing the source to a renewable one. For example, it is possible to generate petrol and diesel from wood pyrolysis products via processes such as the Fischer Tropsch process (Boerighter et. al., 2002; Tijmensen et al 2002; Ehrlich, 2008), with wood grown by sustainable rotation. Current activity in this field is limited to pilot scale production of about 15 million l/yr (CHOREN plant; Ehrlich, 2008), and 656 tonne/y (with 100,000 tonnes/y planned) by Neste-Stora Enso (EBTP, 2010). Laboratory scale work in this area is currently also being carried out. 2) Changing the fuel type to one that can be used in current vehicle engines and that can be produced renewably. For example, spark ignition engines that normally run on petrol can, with minor tuning modifications, be fuelled by ethanol produced from a number of organic crops such as beet, sugar cane and wood. Both spark ignition and compression ignition (diesel) engines can be operated on biogas produced from sources ranging from domestic sewage, industrial wastes, and organic waste in landfills (Metcalf and Eddy, 1991; Tchobanoglous et. al., 1993) through to purpose grown crops. This requires a degree of modification of the engine to allow gas fuel induction and a change in the fuel storage on the vehicle so that the gas may be carried in high pressure containers. Producer gas from woody material (e.g. Pfeifer, 2008) is also an option. In this paper we will consider only compressed methane derived from biogas. Although other options such as liquefied biogas and hydrogen (pressurised gas or liquid) have been canvassed, none of these has yet gone beyond the laboratory stage. 3) Changing the engine to from internal combustion to one that uses an energy form that can be stored on the vehicle and that can be provided from a renewable resource. The most obvious of these is the electric car in which the energy is stored in an electric battery that can be charged from a stationary generator running on renewable energy such as wind, hydro, or geothermal and transmitted to the wheels via an electric motor. A range of such vehicles (e.g. Nissan Leaf, Tesla, Mitsubishi) are, or soon will be available on the public market. A major transition to electric vehicles may be possible in the future but would, unlike the changes described in the first two paragraphs of this section, depend on the replacement of the whole fleet with new technology vehicles. Moreover it is unlikely, given the characteristics of current electric vehicles, that this change could be used effectively for long distance freight transport by road. Indeed, many of the electric cars that are presently being developed will not have a range suitable for long distance passenger transport. Other energy storage methods such as flywheels and compressed gas (Arrillaga and Bodger, 2009) 2



have been investigated but these are subject to even more stringent constraints (completely new vehicle technology, short range) than those affecting electric vehicles. Although flywheels were used for a season as kinetic energy recovery devices in formula one racing, no fully flywheel-drive vehicles are available, or likely to be available in the near future. A compressed air storage vehicle is in the development stage, but will not be further considered here. 4) Changing the ways in which we use transport. Greater use of low energy personal transport methods such as walking and cycling would reduce fossil fuel consumption in short distance transport. In order for this to occur, city and urban infrastructure needs to be developed to facilitate such activities. Greater use of public transport is also touted as a means of “getting people out of cars”. Public transport by underground, rail, light rail (trams) and buses works well in large cities with high population densities providing good accessibility in terms of timetables and routes and reducing vehicle densities on the road. In NZ cities urban transport by diesel bus currently has fuel consumption comparable with cars carrying one to two passengers. Nevertheless we believe that a public transport system for cities based on better use of modern communication technology could achieve significantly greater efficiency of use of fuel and road space. As the objective of this paper is to examine some options for the replacement of fossil transport energy by renewable energy in both the short and the long term, the remainder of this paper focuses on items 1), 2) and 3) listed above, with particular reference to possible rates of implementation and implications for land use in New Zealand. Methods Study period and transport fleet scenarios Transport fleet composition data for the period 2000-2009 from the New Zealand Ministry of Transport (MOT, 2010) was used for this study. Characteristics of the fleet during this period were:  Total light passenger vehicles, diesel and petrol, rose from 2,115,776 to 2,574,589; 

On average, 85,845 new cars entered the fleet each year, compared with 131,760 used cars of average age 7 years.

The following two scenarios were then explored to ascertain the change in fleet composition over time using that historic data set: Scenario 1: all registrations of brand new vehicles from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009 were mandated to be electric vehicles, with continued importation of used internal combustion engine powered vehicles permitted. Then, after 7 years, all new registrations into NZ (brand new and used) were mandated to be electric. Scenario 2: in each year from 1 January 2000 onwards, 10% of all brand new vehicles were mandated to be electrically powered. Thus, in 2000, 10% of brand new cars into New Zealand would be electric, 20% the following year and so on. After 7 years, 10% of used cars were mandated to be electric, and follow the same pattern. 3



Assumptions used in the analysis were: 

Only petrol/diesel vehicles are scrapped over the period. In reality, some new vehicles entering the country (i.e. electric) would be scrapped due to crash damage;



Mileage travelled was assumed to be evenly distributed over the fleet. In reality, newer vehicles travel more, and hence consume more energy than older vehicles;



Electric vehicles were assumed to use one fourth the energy as the equivalent petrol/diesel vehicle.



Only light passenger vehicles were considered - these comprise cars, vans, “utes” and SUVs less than or equal to a mass of 3500kg.

Land area requirements Land areas for the production of renewable fuels were calculated using published data for the production per unit area. To incorporate sustainability we have assumed that all energy inputs to the production come from the growing area. This is achieved by multiplying the land area required for the vehicle fuel by a factor (F), based on the ratio Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI). Typical EROEI values are shown in Table 1.

= F gives the ratio of the effective land area committed to the production over the area’s primary production. At low values of EROEI, F is a steeply varying function, rising from 1.25 at EROEI of 5 to infinity when EROEI falls to unity. =

−1

Land areas were calculated from the total energy consumption required for a particular fuel (EC), the calorific value of the replacement fuel (CV), the productivity of the land (P) and the F factor, which is derived from the EROEI for that particular replacement. =

Feedstock Corn Sugar beet Wood Wood Fruit Soybeans Rapeseed (Canola)

∗ ∗

Table 1: EROEI values from the literature Products Values Reference Bisio and Boots (1997) Ethanol 0.35-2.47 Ethanol 2.53-5.70 Henderson (1986) 3.5-4.5 Ethanol Hall and Jack (2008) Fischer-Tropsch fuels 3.9-5.4 Hall and Jack (2008) 11.3 Hall and Jack (2008) Biogas 1.45-3.24 Morris (1994) Biodiesel Biodiesel 1.8 – 2.1 Barber et. al., (2007) 4



The land areas required for electricity generation were derived assuming purpose grown wood plantations firing a generating station at 25-40% efficiency. Given the fact that some of this electricity would come from wind and hydro, this represents a worst case scenario. Fuel calorific values used in calculations are shown in Table 2. Fuel type Petrol Ethanol Diesel Biodiesel Methane a

Table 2: Fuel calorific valuesa Density (kg/l) Gross calorific value (MJ/l) 34.5 0.73 23.6 0.79 39.1 0.90 35.6 0.85 0.036 0.00064 Sources: Brown (2003); Metcalf and Eddy (1991)

Results and Discussion Fleet composition and fuel consumption Fig. 1a shows the historic petrol and diesel light passenger fleet over the period 2000-2009. Fig. 1b shows the corresponding fuel usage. Figs. 1c and 1d show the petrol and diesel light passenger fleet and corresponding fuel consumption for scenario 1. Figs. 1e and 1f show the petrol and diesel light passenger fleet and corresponding fuel consumption for scenario 2. Under the two scenarios explored here, incorporation of electric cars into the New Zealand vehicle fleet is shown to be relatively slow, and it is clear that at the end of the 10 year study period, the overwhelming majority of cars would still be powered by internal combustion engines, thus requiring continued supply of liquid or gaseous fuels. The electrical energy requirement is modest and given the composition of the New Zealand electricity generation system would incur quite a small GHG penalty. If GHG emissions are to be substantially reduced therefore, large amounts of biofuels will be required. Based on the reduction in fossil fuel use for scenario 2, there would be an 18% reduction in GHG emissions. Land areas The most likely basis for bioethanol production in New Zealand in the short term is beet, from which a yield of about 3855-5000 l/ha.yr can be expected (Brown et. al., 1981; Judd, 2003). The gross productivity is thus 110 GJ/ha.yr. To include the sustainability requirement, this was multiplied by the F factor for sugar beet alcohol which ranges from 1.65-1.21. At the beginning of the study period, 93 PJ of petrol was consumed. Replacement by beet ethanol would have required between 0.93–1.69 million ha. For scenario 1 the land area required at the beginning of the period is as given above, and reduces to 0.76-1.34 million ha at the end of the study period. In the long run, replacement of all current light vehicle road transport by electric vehicles fuelled by wood fired power station(s) at 25% efficiency would require less than half a million ha. The land areas calculated in this way are shown in table 3.

5



3.0

140

2.5

120

Millions of vehicles

100

2.0

80

Energy (PJ)

Electric

1.5

Diesel

1.0

Petrol

0.5

60

100


2.5

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

(b)

2.0

80

Energy (PJ)

Electric

1.5

Diesel

1.0

Petrol

0.5

Electric

60

Diesel

40

Petrol

20

3.0

120

2.5

100

2.0

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

(d)

2000

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

0

2000

0.0

80 Electric

1.5

Energy (PJ)

Diesel

1.0

Petrol

0.5

Electric

60

Diesel

40

Petrol

20

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

(f)

2001

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

0

2000

0.0

2000


2000

0

120

(e)

Petrol

20

3.0

(c)

Diesel

40

0.0

(a)

Electric

Figure 1. (a) The historic car fleet numbers over the study period; (b) the corresponding energy consumption; (c) the car fleet composition if all car manufacturers switched to producing all electric cars within a year; (d) the corresponding energy consumption; (e) the car fleet composition if car manufacturers took 10 years to switch from producing internal combustion engine powered cars to electric cars; (f) the corresponding energy consumption.

6



Base case (2000) Base case (2009) Scenario 1 (2009) Scenario 2 (2009)

Table 3: Required land areas (million Ha) Petrol Diesel Electricity 0.95-1.69 0.36-0.42 0 1.05-1.86 0.50-0.59 0 0.76-1.34 0.39-0.46 0.09-0.14 0.86-1.53 0.42-0.49 0.04-0.07

Total 1.31-2.11 1.55-2.45 1.24-1.94 1.32-2.09

Another option is to utilise compressed biogas, in a manner analogous to previous use of compressed natural gas. Given that all current biogas sources are already usefully employed, we concentrate on the production of biogas from purpose grown crops. The effective use of biogas for vehicle fuelling requires that most of the carbon dioxide be removed and that the remaining methane be compressed and stored on board the vehicle at high pressure. Assuming crop yields about 20 t-DM/ha.y, degradation of 30% of the total solids, and a yield of 0.75 m3-CH4/kg-TS removed, this gives a gross energy production of 161 GJ/ha.yr. Assuming an EROEI of 3 (to include agricultural inputs), this gives a net production of 121 GJ/ha.yr. Replacement of all transport fuel by biogas would require 1.83 million ha. The main production of biogas at the moment is from wastewater treatment and the harvesting of landfill gas. Implications for transition to a low carbon light vehicle fleet The consequences of ethanol substitution are several. Vehicles would need to be re-tuned. In some cases parts such as flexible fuel hoses might need to be replaced. In a 100% ethanol based system the distribution infrastructure would need to handle roughly 50% more volume of fuel. Current vehicles would have a range of approximately 2/3 of their current range. Given that most cars have a range of about 400-500km, and petrol stations are spaced much more closely than this, the reduced range should not be an inconvenience. New Zealand currently produces about 20 million litres of bioethanol (energy value 0.47 PJ) from dairy whey (Liquid Biofuels in New Zealand, 2010). An earlier estimate of the energy value gave 0.40-0.44 PJ (Thiele, 2005). Whey ethanol is mostly exported, and used for drinking alcohol and in the production of food and cosmetics. Some ethanol is currently sold as a 10% blend with petrol, at Gull petrol stations in the North Island (40 service stations; Gull New Zealand, 2010). Also, Mobil has E10 available at 7 service stations, and E3 is available at 15 outlets (Mobil New Zealand, 2010). Full utilisation of tallow has previously been estimated to be able to meet 6-7% of national diesel demand (Judd, 2002), and with inclusion of waste cooking oil, the supply is unlikely to provide more than 10% of demand. Estimates of potential algal oil derived biodiesel amount to another 10%, although a number of issues remain to be solved (PCE, 2010). An increase in biodiesel production therefore either requires greater utilization of by-products/wastes, or growing more rapeseed (Solid Energy, 2009). An analysis on biodiesel production from New Zealand tallow shows it releases 51% of the GHG emissions compared with mineral diesel (Barber, 2007). The decrease in emissions when the biodiesel is derived from rapeseed has been calculated to be 58% compared to mineral diesel (SKM, 2008). In contrast UK produced rapeseed diesel has a 19% reduction compared with mineral diesel (SKM, 2008). 7



The options discussed so far are ones that use technologies that are available now. They all require quite large areas of land. The total area of arable land in New Zealand is about 13,000,000 ha, with 1,500,000 – 2,000,000 ha needed to feed the current population. Thus the production of biofuels for the transitional scenarios presented here would require diversion of 15-23% of total arable land for this purpose, or major developments in the production of biofuels from cellulosic forestry crops. While such processes currently exist at the experimental level, their large-scale application remains to be proven. In either case the imperative for immediate and concerted action is strong if New Zealand is to achieve security of supply. If not, then considerable increases in biofuels production abroad will be required. Are there options that could be available in the medium future that would take us towards sustainability with the commitment of less land? Firstly, there is the electric car – but as we have shown the transition time is likely to be long under the assumptions made in this paper. We conclude therefore that rather more drastic policy measures than explored here will be required if electrification of transport is to make a major impact on New Zealand’s GHG profile in a timely fashion. Secondly, our analysis has incorporated historic travel patterns. A major shift to the use of public transport, cycling and walking would decrease fuel consumption and hasten the transitional phase to a low-carbon transport system. This requires cultural as well as technical transformation. Conclusions The rate of conversion of New Zealand’s road fleet from internal combustion engine powered vehicles to electric vehicles under two conservative policy scenarios was shown to be relatively slow. Thus after 10 years, the majority of the fleet remained powered by internal combustion engines. Any future rate of transfer will be conditioned by the production and cost of electric cars and the rate of retirement of our current fleet. It is technically possible to fuel New Zealand’s road fleet from indigenous renewable sources. However, this would take a large part of our arable land, thus impinging on other aspects of our agricultural economy, unless cellulosic ethanol production from woody biomass can be developed. Replacement of a proportion of fossil fuel consumption by biofuels is capable of making a significant contribution to the desired GHG reduction and will be a vital part of the transition under our scenario assumptions. Given the half life of the internal combustion engine fleet, and the likely rate of increase in the cost of fossil-oil, it would be wise to begin a programme of conversion immediately. In the long run it would appear that a full change to electric vehicles for passenger transport would be able to make significant contribution to the reduction in GHG and self sufficiency in transport fuels. However this should be accompanied by serious attention to altering current transport patterns.

Acknowledgement The authors are grateful to Shannon Page for technical assistance. 8



References Arrillaga. G.J. and Bodger, P.S., 2009. Gathering renewable energy in electrical networks. Electric Power Engineering Centre, Christchurch, N.Z. Barber A., Campbell A. and Hennessy W., 2007. Primary Energy and Net Greenhouse gas emissions from Biodiesel made from New Zealand Tallow. CRL Energy Report 06-11547b for the Energy Efficiency and conservation Authority, Lower Hutt, New Zealand. Bisio, A. and Boots, S., 1997. The Wiley Encyclopedia of Energy and the Environment. Wiley, New York, USA. Boerighter, Herman den Uil and Calis, 2002. Pyrolysis and Gasification of Biomass and Waste Expert Meeting. Strasbourg, France, 30 Sept-1 Oct, 2002. Brown, R.C., 2003. Biorenewable resources : engineering new products from agriculture. Iowa State Press, Ames, Iowa, USA. Erlich D., 2008. Choren Completes Biomass to Liquid Plant in Germany. Cleantech Focus, April 21, 2008. ETBP, 2010. European Biofuels Technology Platform: NSE biofuels demonstration plant. Available at: http://www.biofuelstp.eu/btl.html; accessed September, 2010. Gull New Zealand, 2010. Available at: http://www.gull.biz/public/view_page.aspx?id=32&DspCat=6&SubCat=9; accessed July, 2010. Hall, P. and Jack, M., 2008. Bioenergy options for New Zealand - Pathways analysis. Scion Research, Rotorua, New Zealand. Henderson, C.F., 1986. Fuel ethanol from sugar beet and fodder beet. New Zealand Energy Research and Development Committee, Auckland, New Zealand. Judd, B., 2002. Biodiesel from Tallow, Report prepared for the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, Wellington, New Zealand. Judd, B., 2003. Feasibility of Producing Diesel Fuels From Biomass in New Zealand, Report prepared for the Sustainable Christchurch Leader Policy Directorate, Christchurch City Council and the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, Wellington, New Zealand. Liquid Biofuels in New Zealand, 2010. What and how much is being made in New Zealand? Available at: http://www.liquidbiofuels.org.nz/nzbiofuels.asp; accessed July, 2010. MED, 2009. New Zealand Energy Data File. Ministry of Economic Development, Wellington, New Zealand. MfE. 2010. New Zealand's Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2008. New Zealand Ministry for the Environment, Wellington, New Zealand. Metcalf and Eddy Inc., 1991. Wastewater Engineering: Treatment, Disposal, and Reuse. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA. MOT, 2010. The New Zealand Fleet Statistics 2009. New Zealand Ministry of Transport, Wellington, New Zealand. March 2010. Available at: http://www.transport.govt.nz/research/NewZealandVehicleFleetStatistics/; accessed July, 2010. Mobil New Zealand, 2010. Mobil New Zealand website: Available at: http://www.mobil.co.nz/mobilcard/ethanol.html; accessed July, 2010. Morris, D., 1994. How much energy does it take to make a gallon of biodiesel. Institute for local self-reliance, Washington, DC, USA. NZ Government, 2009. Climate change: New Zealand's 2020 emissions reduction target., Cabinet minute of decision. CAB Min (09) 28/9. New Zealand Government, Wellington, New Zealand. Paine, C., 2006. Who killed the electric car? Sony Home Pictures Entertainment, Culver City, California, USA. 9



PCE, 2010. Some biofuels are better than others; thinking strategically about biofuels. New Zealand Parliamentary Commission for the Environment, Wellington, New Zealand. Pfeifer, C., 2008. Biomass steam gasification - a success story in Austria. Proceedings of a workshop on Biomass Gasification Technology and Biomass Energy. Wood Technology Centre, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand. SKM, 2008. EECA Peer Review for Canola Life Cycle Assessment. Sinclair Knight Merz, Wellington, New Zealand. Solid Energy, 2009. Media release, 13 February, 2009. Solid Energy, Christchurch, New Zealand. Sovacool, B.K., 2009. Early modes of transport in the United States: lessons for modern energy policy makers. Policy and Society 27(4), 411-427. Tchobanoglous,G., Theisen,H. and Vigil, S., 1993. Integrated solid waste management: engineering principles and management issues. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA. Thiele, J.H.. 2005. Estimate of the Energy Potential for Fuel Ethanol from Putrescible Waste in New Zealand. Technical Report prepared by Waste Solutions Ltd for the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, Wellington, New Zealand. Tijmensen, M.J.A., Faaij, A.P.C., Hamelinck C.N. and Hardeveld, M.R.M., 2002. Biomass and Bioenergy 23(2), 129-152.

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Wolfgramm Rachel, Dr University of Auckland, 12 Grafton Road, Auckland, New Zealand Ph: 649 3737599 Fax: 649 3737477 Email: [email protected] Creating leadership in transition to sustainability societies: Reflections from the Universitas 21 Sustainability Project Intended Category: Embedded Sustainability Abstract In order to ensure 21st century relevance and progression, universities worldwide are developing innovative approaches to research and education for sustainability. Whilst it is an agenda that has been underway for many decades, in recent years, due to the escalation of sustainability related concerns worldwide, universities are repositioning themselves in renewed efforts to create leadership in transition to sustainable societies. As “living laboratories”, they are spearheading a shift in principled driven intellectual and solutions based activities that exemplify their role as critic and conscience of society. (Cortese, Second Nature). Further to this, in seeking to advance lateral synergies across vertical specialisations, universities are proactively leading transdisciplinary research in private/public/community partnerships. Projects involve the convergeance of a range of specialisations. Such initiatives take current sustainability related challenges and create suitable institutional mechanisms that facilitiate collaborations across disciplinary boundaries and well beyond the confines of uiniversities. The overarching goal is to act as change agents by collaborating to develop new knowledge designed to facilitate better understanding of the issues at hand whilst simultaneously enhancing the capacity to generate sustainable solutions. These initiatives in universities around the world indicate a genuine desire to meet and address sustainability challenges of the 21st century. They highlight the role universities are playing in creating leadership in transition to sustainable societies. Introduction Sustainability imperatives include issues such as a growing human population estimated to climb to nine billion by the year 2050 and concomitant concerns such as resource depletion and regeneration, climate change, global water shortages, costs of desalination, accelerating food production, agglomeration and urban stress, hyper consumerism, human and environmental costs of war and terrorism, waste management, and the search for sustainable and renewable energy (UNEP, 2005, WWF, 2008, World Bank, 2008). Therefore, the term “Sustainability” provokes a myriad of responses from individuals, businesses, community groups, academics, politicians and supranational organisations around the globe. Irrespective of the vast range of responses to the issues, Meadows, Meadows, and Randers (1992), define a sustainable society as “one that can persist over generations, one that is far-seeing enough, flexible enough, and wise enough not to undermine either its physical or its social systems of support”.



Given this definition, in a comprehensive sense, sustainability incorporates economic, social, cultural and environmental factors which include: enhancing and advancing aspirations for a desired better future, principled leadership, the need for innovative, systemic and institutional change, moral and ethical development and social justice. Transformative processes in business enterprise, accelerating research, development, action and investments in green technology are important foci. Minimising physical degradation, fostering regeneration programmes and stabilising the amount of raw material extracted from the Earth are critical. Supporting communities of purpose and practice focused on improving, safe guarding and protecting the natural environment and the life of other species are also captured in this thematic approach. In terms of the science of sustainability, in critical areas such as climate change, food and water security, coastal erosion, eco-migration and eco-infrastructure in urban development, scientific based research informs a range of sustainability related impact reports, legislation and policy development at international, national, regional and community levels. The general consensus is that delivering sustainable futures requires transformative actions now. The call for transdisciplinary sustainability research and education with scale and reach is increasing in international academic communities. The leadership challenge for universities This paper is informed by several key questions. They include: what is the role of universities in creating leadership in transition to sustainable societies, how can university led research and education better respond to the aspirations of current and future generations, how can universities place higher value on the opportunities of the present as we transition to sustainable societies? how can universities further enhance and advance sustainable related research and education through new and innovative institutional processes? where can universities look to benchmark success in sustainable leadership and build on these? how is success in sustainability driven leadership being determined and measured and how important is it to develop critical perspectives of sustainability(ism)? A primary role of universities is that of the critic and conscience of society. However, the institution itself has evolved over time and is now embedded in a society dominated by an overriding economic paradigm. This phenomenon is not that unusual when taking into considering condensed global industrialism and its consequences over the last 200 years. In terms of the apparatus of global industrialism, contemporary institutions that cut across all spectrums of society have developed over time to support an agenda dominated by economic growth. Universities are by no means immune to this, and in fact, have grown exponentially as the demand for new knowledge in a knowledge economy has driven significant growth in the “education” sector. For example, according to Cortese (2010), in the United States alone, this sector is valued at 350 billion dollars. Alongside the economic driven paradigm and the demand for more intense specialisations in the accumulation of new and contemporary knowledge, modern universities have developed both conceptually and structurally to reflect this (Chubin, 1976, Becher & Trowler, 1989). In fact, Willinsky of Stanford University argues that higher education is viewed more and more as “a knowledge factory capable of spawning cutting-edge ideas, high tech corridors, spin-off companies and jobs”. Given that, new and transformative sustainability related research competes with a dominant agenda that is driven by economic imperatives. Universities are now highly risk averse and have embedded cultures that favour the traditionalism associated with academic tribes and territories.



In addition to these challenges, a range of institutional based norms have emerged. For example, academic reward systems favour traditional systems for hiring, tenure and promotion which are controlled by departments. In this context, there is often little reward or recognition for teaching or research outside one’s disciplinary area. Distinct institutional cultures which require higher degrees of collaboration may have different concepts of ‘proof’ or ‘precision’. For example, the culture of a mathematics department, differs from a biology department or that of a management department. Programme evaluation in academic institutions relies on traditional evaluation mechanisms to benchmark programmes and allocate resources. When emerging fields are left out of assessments, they may not receive funding. Departmental procedures differ across departments and faculties which may have different methods for allocating resources, organising research, authoring papers, controlling space and allocating facilities and criteria for recruitment, which may impede or fail to reward new and transformative transdisciplinarity. Added to this, performance based research funding and similar forms of appraisal are determined based on outputs that are orientated by historical endeavours and those impacts which are immediate and ultimately generate tangible and reportable outputs. As a consequence, limited resources including staff, time and funding that is designed and devoted to transdisciplinary initiatives that are present and future focussed needs to be outstanding in order to attract funding and centralised funding. The requisite time required to develop such initiatives is intense. In addition, the start up time for transdisciplinary projects which includes arranging staff, equipment and resourcing for a collaborative project, may take longer than within-department projects, thus reducing the time for research and reporting results unless specifically dedicated to such research. International publishing avenues are often unsympathetic towards transdisciplinary research. However, the higher A rated journals are based on intensity of specialist knowledge and growth and contributions within these silos as opposed to transdisciplinarity. New and emergeant outlets for transdisicplanarity publishing are often undervalued and dismissed as ineffectual to growing and accumulating specialised knowledge. In spite of these challenges, new initiatives are emerging within universities that signal a genuine desire to move beyond these socially constructed boundaries. Pursuit and commitment that resonates with being a critic and conscience of society is re-emerging with renewed intensity in universities. The following section of this paper contributes insights to this based on a current project entitled “Implementing the Unversitas 21 Statement of Sustainability to advance research and teaching excellence for Sustainability”. I outline the project and then offer a framework that may contribute to developing better understandings of how universities are creating leadership in transition to sustainable societies. The project The catalyst for this project was the signing of the Universitas 21 Statement of Sustainability in 2009 by 21 partner universities around the world. The preamble states; “The quest to realise a more sustainable way of life on Earth is increasingly becoming a race, not against one another, but against time. The challenge of the decline of biodiversity, of energy, food and water security, of climate change, of economic sustainability and of human health have been recognised as being among the greatest faced by the human race and the planet and we believe that the urgency of these requires unity of purpose and of leadership.



We recognise that universities have a role to play in researching solutions to such problems so as to bequeath a sustainable world to future generations and in educating future generations about this awareness and research. We recognise that member institutions are committed to engaging with issues of global significance and that working together collaboratively and cooperatively we can achieve more than is possible by working alone. We acknowledge the role that universities play in creating a new future for the dynamic world in which we live. Through research, teaching, community partnerships and demonstrable actions, universities can help advance timely solutions to ecological, societal and economic problems. Through our engagement with civil society, industry and government, we can accelerate these solutions beyond the campus itself. ” (Universitas 21 Statement of Sustainability) Tthe Universitas 21 Statement on Sustainability commits internationally networked universities to progressing global sustainable development in five areas: a) Research towards sustainable futures b) Education for sustainability c) Universities as living laboratories for sustainability d) Enhancing citizenship and engagement e) Building capacity through cross network collaboration and action. The Universitas 21 SoS agenda is both ambitious in scope and scale. Given that, in terms of translating the aspirations of the document into a workable understanding of what is needed in Universties in terms of creating leadership in transition to sustainable societies, below is an outline of the some of the overarching goals inherent in the document. advances Research and learning the enhances, advances and delivers sustainable futures Recognition of the urgent need for innovative institutional change and theory building that is holistic, connected and transformative Research and learning that develops a better understanding of values, citizenship, legislative, policy, compliance and social equity approaches to sustainability Research and learning that exemplifies and amplifies the role that universities are doing as ‘Living laboratories, for example, greening campuses through design and development of green buildings, energy reduction, carbon neutral campuses Research, learning and actions that build moral, ethical understanding and address issues of social justice and socio-ecological equity Research and learning that enables a benchmarking for success in transformative processes in business, society and politics that is beneficial for local communities and global business alike Research and learning that links to accelerating investments in beyond the horizon technology and innovation Research and learning that addresses the urgent need to reduce, minimise and stabilise the amount of raw material extracted from the Earth A strong commitment to transdisciplinarity that facilitates lateral synergies and collaboration whilst ensuring vertical specialisations are not undermined – thorough consideration of systems based analysis, processes and implementation strategies The development of innovative new research and learning methodologies and methods that build stronger links between theory, practice and the biophysical environment



Research and learning that supports actions of communities of purpose and practice that are focused on improving, safe guarding, and protecting the natural environment and the life of other species Being open to learning from the natural world and being determined to build closer theoretical and practical links Research that facilitates local and global virtual dissemination Strategic objectives of the project In response to the aspirations outlined in the U21 Statement of Sustainability, in August 2009, a team of staff from across the University of Auckland, applied for and received funding from the Vice-Chancellor’s strategic development fund for a project titled “Implementing the Universitas 21 Statement on Sustainability with a focus on advancing teaching and research excellence”. The key strategic objectives of this project included: a) developing an action plan that addresses The University of Auckland’s commitments under the U21 Statement on Sustainability b) advancing the University as a relevant and progressive institution in the 21st century c) establishing the University as a recognised international leader in teaching and research for sustainability d) cultivating and building networks and connections to a broad community of interest, both locally and internationally Prioritisation of actions By invitation, a cross faculty steering group was established to develop the overall strategic architecture and implementation of the project. This steering group comprises junior and senior Faculty members from across the university. 1) Appointment of project co-chairs 2) Series of steering group meetings to create and confirm • Strategic orientation of project in line with the Universitas 21 Statement of Sustainability • Project components and realistic timelines for implementation • Development of a Terms of Reference document for the (1) steering group and (2)to inform the consensus-building workshops 3) The recruitment, briefing and management of an external facilitator, to host the series of cross-faculty and inter-disciplinary workshops within the University to foster collegiality and collaboration, and build general consensus. 4) Recruitment of Administrative Support 5) Design and development of a series of cross faculty consensus building workshops 6) Co-facilitation of three workshops which:



a. raised awareness of the Universitas 21 Statement of Sustainability and it’s potential impact b. outlined the University’s strategic positioning in terms of Sustainability Research and Teaching c. profiled current Sustainability related initiatives already in place across the University d. identified expectations of interest groups throughout the university e. facilitated a series break out sessions oriented around U21 SoS f. developed specific actions in line with the U21 SoS g. rovided feedback to the participants of the workshop series h. made progress towards creating a network of scholars committed to the actions they have developed for the University in alignment with the U21 Statement of Sustainability i. a comprehensive draft that summarises the Actions considered necessary to be undertaken by the University in order to achieve the 5 requisite goals of the U21 Statement of Sustainability 8) Series of follow-up meetings with a small steering group executive team to synthesise results from the consensus building workshops 9) First pre-symposium workshop hosted the Director, School of the Environment 10)Second pre-symposium workshop for steering group members and workshop participants to: Present “leading by example” initiatives currently underway at UoA and international strategic initiatives underway at U21 Partner Universities with a particular focus on Dr Lesley Stone’s visit’s to McGill, UBC and Monterray 12) Development of a comprehensive draft and programme for the “Universitas 21 International Sustainability Symposium, November, 2010 which included convening members from all faculties of the university, and inter-institutional support networks. 13) Organisation and administrative tasks with respect to the U21 Sustainability Symposium(nb, Patrick McGuire and Richard Judd lead the technology team for the U21 Sustainability Symposium to enable virtual international links and delivery) 14) Hosting of a one day international symposium at the University of Auckland “Universities as leaders in transition to sustainable societies. Key representatives from all faculties, the leadership Institute and Institutional Support services came together to discuss, New, emerging and transformative initiatives (including inter-disciplinary research and teaching), their perspectives of the challenges and opportunities for institutional innovation and change necessary to meet the objectives of the Universitas 21 Statement of Sustainability and strategic leadership and transformatiions of how their respective faculties and the university could further enhance and advance the five themes of the U21 SoS including any meta goals and objectives with scale and international reach and impact. 15) Development of a url: www.u21sustainability2010.co.nz with the intent of expanding this into an interactive cybersite In addition to the above, the project is continuing to: 1) Consolidate engagement of a sustainability networks across the tertiary sector and within the wider community of stakeholders (supra-nationals, government, business, community and NGOs).



2) Develop a document that comprises a review of the project, strategic implications and recommendations to be presented to the Vice Chancellor in regards to Implementing the U21 Statement of Sustainability to advance teaching and research excellence for Sustainability. Of worthy note, in addition to this project, the University of Auckland has developed Themed Research Intiatives which cover a range of areas pertinent to addressing sustainability related challenges and are explicitly designed to advance and accelerate inter-disciplinary research. Further, the University has committed to membership of the United Nations Habitat Partnership network, a global initiative involving universities worldwide. A framework for creating leadership in transition to sustainable societies The introduction of this paper highlighted several key questions. They included: what is the role of universities in creating leadership in transition to sustainable societies, how can university led research and education better respond to the aspirations of current and future generations, how can universities place higher value on the opportunities of the present as we transition to sustainable societies? how can universities further enhance and advance sustainable related research and education through new and innovative institutional processes? where can universities look to benchmark success in sustainable leadership and build on these? how is success in sustainability driven leadership being determined and measured and how important is it to develop critical perspectives of sustainability(ism)? In the following section of this paper, I offer a framework designed to raise the level of awareness in the pursuit of creating leadership in transition to sustainable societies. Whilst this conceptual framework does not directly answer the questions raised, I suggest it signals the need to further develop more inclusive and innovative ways of both engaging in transdisciplinary research, and creating completely new research and teaching ecologies that will inform the needs of transformation in 21st century higher education. This conceptual framework is in its generative infancy and offers some initial insights based on involvement in the U21 Sustainability project. These insights reflect my own critical reflections as an academic with a specific interest in the social construction of institutions and institutional innovation. It also reflects a broader interest in leadership-followership dynamics and links between this and institutional transformation. The framework moves beyond the traditional positional concepts of leadership towards processural leadership and inherently argues that new forms of participatory leadership and new ecologies of engagement are necessary in creating leadership in transition to sustainable societies. Creating leadership in transition to sustainable societies

Creating and supporting the development of new and innovative leadership paradigms that shift the dominant ideology of business towards that of society at large wherein the role of business is to support pro-social and pro-environmental behaviour on optimal benefit paths to ensure a double dividend Recognition of the real costs of associated externalities. Creating leadership that is willing to



engage with and learn from nature’s ecologies. A focus on stewardship of the environment Pricing and enforcing the consequences of negative externalities. The role of cultural dynamics including values, beliefs, behavioural norms, symbols and artefacts that support the development of new cultures of leadership in transition to sustainable societies. Leading through intellectual endeavours that highlight the limitations of anthropocentricity Creating and crafting leadership that builds on inherent human and environmental creativity across a broad spectrum of activities. Creating new forms of identity that emphasise the role of the environment in identify formation as a social construction. Highlighting the need for creative expressions of identity that signify a less anthropocentric view of the world. Signally the role of contrived status hierarchies and reorienting and recreating new forms of status signals oriented by sustainable consumption Symbolism impacts both leader and follower dynamics. Creating leadership in transition to sustainable societies requires new forms of symbolic leadership driven and acknowledged from all spectrums of society, not just through policy and position. A highly proactive approach is necessary as passively waiting for traditional shifts in symbolic leadership is inconsistent with transformational and agented leadership Creating leadership in transition to sustainable societies requires a new voice and language paradigm that explicitly includes that of future generations. More inclusive conversations with children and youth are imperative in new forms of knowledge creation as it is their future and the future of the home and biosphere that this transition will have the most impact upon Ethics of leading in spaces and places that re-orient conversations towards the environmental consequences of actions. More emphasis on wisdom and less on the acquisition and accumulation of irrelevant and redundant knowledge Critical analysis of the business/industry of leadership and whether it is appropriately oriented towards being part of the solution to deliver sustainable futures Leading through innovation in sciences that focus on regeneration of the earth’s resources and conservation of the species in the biosphere Openness and willingness to engage in transcultural conversations and intercultural learning from different indigenous wisdom traditions Creating a fresh new and dynamic spirit of leading that is able to overcome and move beyond institutional boundaries and that focuses on interdependence of the physical, intellectual and spiritual worlds A legal system oriented by environmental and social consequences of actions. Compliance regimes that effectively generate higher levels of planetary citizenship. As the costs of compliance and enforcement are intense and high, policy is needed alongside other suggestions. Conclusion In a post industrial era, new values will shape research and learning. These values honour the present and needs of future generations and respect the planet that the human population rely upon for survival. A values shift, a new consciousness and an alignment with fresh new institutional innovations is preferable to forcibly dismantling or “decommissioning” outmoded institutions as sudden and dramatic structural change would only increase social instability. The changes that need to be made are systemic and include the need to rethink,



reframe and renew outdated and outmoded institutions. Rebirth and renewal will only arise from a commitment to change through transformative thinking and action. Citizenship of such a scale will require a new consciousness and an individual and collective force of will in local and global communities of purpose and practice. It will require reflexive thinking and action guided by an inclusive and principled approach driven by sustainability imperatives. In order to breathe life into a new consciousness, the ideologies associated with condensed global industrialism need to give way to new transformative ways of progressing and delivering sustainable futures. For universities, the shift is significant and will require creating leadership in transition to sustainable societies that is dynamic, innovative, transformative, adaptive, flexible, committed and dedicated. The Universitas 21 Sustainment of Sustainability is but one such project that is attempting to contribute to this shift.



Selected Bibliography Avery,G (2005) Leadership for Sustainable Futures: Achieving Success in a Competitive World, Cheltenham, UK and Northhampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar Battiste, M (2000), Reclaiming indigenous voice and vision, Vancouver, University of British Colombia Press Beck, U., Giddons, A. & Lash, S. (1994). Reflexive Modernisation: Politics, Tradition and Aesthetics in Modern Social Order. England: Blackwell Publishers. Burrell, G., & Morgan, G. (1979). Sociological Paradigms and Organisational Analysis: elements of the sociology of corporate life. London: Heinemann Educational. Cajete, G. (2000). Native Science, Natural Laws of Interdependence, New Mexico, Clear Light Publishers Cortese, A. (2010) Learning and Thriving in Higher Education, Bioneers Conference, San Franscico, USA Eldrige, J. (1971), Max Weber: The interpretation of social reality, Micheal Joseph, London. Emirbayer, M, Mische, A (1998) What is Agency? American Journal of Sociology, Vol 103, No.4, University of Chicago Fels, R. (1964). How the Economic System Generates Evolution. In J.A. Schumpeter (Ed). Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical & Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process (pp. 72-182). London: McGraw-Hill. Geertz, C. (1973) The interpretation of culture, New York: Basic Books Gladwin, T, Kennelly, J, Krause ST (1995) Shifting Paradigms for Sustainable Development: Implications for Management Theory and Research, Academy of Management Review, Vol 20, 4, 874-907 Giddens, A (1971) Capitalism and modern social theory, An analysis of the writings of Marx, Durkheim and Max Weber Cambridge University Press Giddens, A. (1991) Modernity and self-identity, Cambridge, Polity Press Giesen, B & Schmid, M (1989) Symbolic, Institutional and Social-structural differentiation. A Selection –Theoretical Perspective in Hans Haferkamp, Social structure and culture, de Gruyter, Berlin Gouillart, F. & Kelly, J. (1995). Transforming the Organization. McGraw-Hill, USA.



Granovetter, M. Swedberg, R. (1992). The Sociology of Economic Life. Waterview Press Inc, Colorado, USA. Haferkamp, H (1989) Social Structure and Culture, Walter de Gruyter & Co. Berlin Hall, R. (1992). The strategic analysis of intangible resources. Strategic Management Journal, 13, 133-144. Hamilton, C (2003) Growth Fetish, Crows Nest, New South Wales, Allen & Unwin Hart, S.L. (2005). Capitalism at the Crossroads: The Unlimited Business Opportunities in Solving the World’s Most Difficult Problems. New Jersey: Wharton School Publishing. Hawken, P (1995) The ecology of commerce: a declaration of sustainability, London: Phoenix Heelas, P, Lash Scott, M.P. (1996). Detraditionalisation, Blackwell Publishers Ltd, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. Kalamaras, G (1994) Reclaiming the tacit dimension, Symbolic Form of the Rhetoric of Silence, New York, State University of New York Press, USA Kalberg, S (1994). Max Weber’s Comparative-Historical Sociology, Polity Press, UK King, N. (1990). Innovation at work: the research literature. In M.A. West & J.L. Farr (eds). Innovation and creativity at work: Psychological and Organisational Strategies (pp. 15-57). Brisbane: John Wiley & Sons. Kuper, A, (2003) Culture, The Anthropologists Account, USA, Harvard University Press Larson, A. & Starr, J.A. (1993). A Network Model of Organization Formation. Entrepreneurship, Theory and Practice, 17(2), 5-15. Laswell, H., Lerner, D., & Montgomery, J. (1976). Values and Development. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Colonial Press Inc. USA. Lukes, S. (1973) Emile Durkheim: His Life and Work: A Historical and Critical Study. Middlesex, England: Penguin. Plattner, (1989), Economic Anthropology, Stanford University Press, California Pollard, S (1991), Wealth and Poverty, The Economic History of the Twentieth Century, Andromeda Oxford Limited, UK Powell, W (1990) Neither Market nor Hierarchy: Network forms of organizations, Research in Organisational Behaviour, Vol.12, pp295-336 Porter, M. (1990). The competitive advantage of nations. Harvard Business Review, 90(2): 73-93.



Porter, M. (1994). Toward a Dynamic Theory of Strategy: Fundamental Issues in strategy: A Research Agenda, Rumelt, Schendel and Teece, Harvard Business Press, 423-461. Reed, M. (1996). Organizational Theorizing: a historically contested terrain. In S. Clegg & C. Hardy & W. Nord (Eds.), Handbook of Organisational Studies. London: Sage. Sahal, D. (1985). Invention, Innovation and Economic Evolution. In E. Rhodes & D. Wield (eds). Implementing New Technologies (pp. 50-62). Oxford: Blackwell. Schiser, F. (1984). Innovation and Growth: Schumpeterian Perspectives. Cambridge, MIT Press. Schumpeter, J. A. (1939). Business Cycles: A theoretical, historical and statistical analysis of the capitalist process. London, McGraw-Hill. Senge, P M (2004) Creating Desired Futures in a Global Economy Reflections: The Society for Organizational Learning Journal, Vol. 5, No. 1, Fall 2004 Solomon, R. (1994). The New World of Business: Ethics and Free Enterprise in the Global Stanley, M. J. (1998). Evolutionery Economics and creative destruction. The Gras Schumpeter Lectures, Routledge, London. Thiorelli, H, B (1986) Networks: Between Markets and Hierachies, Strategic Management Journal, Vol, 7, pp37-51 Universitas 21 Statement of Sustainability (2009)



Young, Mr Damian (BE Env) Morphum Environmental Ltd P O Box 99642 Newmarket Phone 09 3779779 Fax 09 3779778 [email protected] Can catchment management can be delivered for the Auckland Super City watersheds and achieve sustainability. Resilient Societies In Auckland, under existing governance, the Auckland Regional Council has been working to provide guidance on how to structure Integrated Catchment Management Plans and for preparation by local authorities. This results in, what should hopefully be, consistent outputs. However, this is not the case as institutional capacity, available budgets, community expectation and business practices, of the individual councils, are critical factors in the production of consistent planning outputs. It is not so much the calculations, designs or plans that are generated, but more the systems and technical tools that support them that are proving to be increasingly important. How then are we to build resilient societies? The integration of information sets through GIS and documented management systems can allow multidepartment/organisational collaborations to flourish. Under a ― total watershed management approach‖ that includes infrastructure, such as roads, wastewater/water supply and multiple land uses, it is possible to combine visions and resources to achieve more sustainable results and outcomes. Given we are on the verge of deconstructing to reconstruct a One Auckland Super City it is imperative the tools are available and the business processes well understood to take advantage of the expected benefits of amalgamation and build resilient societies. This paper investigates just what might be required in the One Auckland Scenario to achieve Integrated Catchment Management best practice and resilient infrastructure. Keywords Infrastructure, institutional capacity, total watershed management, business, collaboration. Presenter profile Damian Young - Is an Environmental Engineer and a Founding Director of Morphum Environmental Ltd. For the last 10 years he has worked in stormwater catchment management from ecological assessment through to detailed design. His particular focus has been the primary importance of asset and receiving environment data being integrated into management systems that can be used for delivery of sustainable outcomes.

NZESS Conference 2010 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 884


1

INTRODUCTION

Across the Auckland region, local councils — with guidance and support from the Auckland Regional Council (ARC) — have been responsible for the development of Integrated Catchment Management Plans (ICMPs). These plans are used to define how a Watershed (drainage basin) and its cumulative parts should be managed and controlled, not just for stormwater, but also for wastewater systems. All geographic areas have their individual community, political and environmental nuances. Some districts are developing, have rural communities with low energy receiving environments such as estuaries. Others have developed urban areas, reticulated water and stormwater draining to high energy coastal systems. Despite these differences ICMPs are expected to deliver a level of certainty, direction and information to the numerous stakeholders. This is central in many ways to how we plan for the future. Since their inception in the Auckland region in 2004, there has been considerable discussion and debate around the objectives and outcomes of ICMPs including their regulatory and legislative objectives (e.g. quadruple bottom line and the Resource Management Act 1991), level of required detail and their use in achieving sustainable development outcomes. Further to this it has become increasingly clear institutional capacity, community expectation and business practices of the individual councils are critical factors in the production of consistent planning outputs. This is not to say that much of the work in ICMPs undertaken to date has not been of a high standard, but that true planning integration is a demanding discipline that must focus on more than calculations, designs or plans that are generated. Plans are notoriously static as documents (and should not be) and are legendarily difficult to execute. The changes to the governance structure of the Auckland region have meant city managers and planners are now faced with a simpler yet potentially more demanding task. Being on the verge of deconstructing the seven local councils in Auckland to rebuild a ‗One Auckland‘ super council it is increasingly clear that having the correct tools and business processes will underpin successfully taking advantage of the expected benefits of amalgamation. This paper investigates just what might be required in the ‗One Auckland Scenario‘ to hopefully achieve integrated catchment management best practice, discussing the institutional capacity, tools and business practices that might be needed for the Auckland Council and the Council Controlled Organisations (CCOs).

1.1

RESEARCH

This paper has been developed through discussions on the ICMPs process with industry representatives and with a focus on stormwater. This involved having face-to-face discussions with many of the practitioners creating ICMPs to get a clearer understanding of the challenges they face. This also allowed for a better appreciation of how they work within their given organisations, their successes and the issues they face in delivery. It is also based on the personal experiences and involvement in the development of ICMPs at North Shore City Council over a six year period. Contributors have been acknowledged at the end of this paper.

1.2

THE AUCKLAND SETTING

The Auckland Region extends from Wellsford in the north to Pukekohe in the south. It is made up of seven districts and includes the largest city in New Zealand which drains to three major harbours. The region is currently home to an estimated 1.37 million people with a projected population of 1.77 million by 2026. It is the fastest growing area and the most heavily populated part of New Zealand. Auckland is a coastal city that has hundreds of small catchments that drain to estuaries and the sea. This poses a logistical and technical challenge. Not only are there many catchments that end at the sea but they also discharge to two different ocean bodies (the Pacific and the Tasman Sea) and three major harbours. It is also a place of major change. ‗During the coldest part of the last ice age – just 20,000 years ago – the sea level fell to 130 metres lower than present. Although other parts of New Zealand were glacier and ice cap covered, the Auckland region was still covered in forest. Today's harbours and the Hauraki Gulf were forested valleys, with streams flowing seawards across broad coastal plains. In Auckland a small river flowed down the forested Waitemata valley and straight out past Motutapu hills beneath what is now Rangitoto Island. From there it still had 120 kilometres to flow to reach the coast out beyond Great Barrier and the Mokohinau Islands. All of the islands were hills and ridges joined together by lower lying valleys and plains.‘ (Auckland City Council, 2006). NZESS Conference 2010 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 885


What was left after this post glacial and ice-age period was an isthmus which is a narrow strip of land connecting two larger land areas on either side. The hills and ridges once joined by low lying valleys became a multitude of smaller catchments draining to tidal estuaries and coastal areas. This complex hydraulic and topographical setting makes the management of stormwater and wastewater systems particularly challenging.

INTEGRATED CATCHMENT MANAGEMENT PLANNING

1.3

The Auckland Regional Council considers that ‗The Integrated Catchment Management Plan‘ identifies important characteristics of a catchment in which resource management problems exist or may occur as a result of (re)development or other major changes in activity patterns. An Integrated Catchment Management Plan identifies the natural and physical constraints of the catchment that control the form and intensity of growth/land use (ARC, ICMP Funding Eligibility Guideline., 2006). General requirements of ICMPs are: 

Catchment delineation, characterisation and land use planning;



Receiving environments (Stream, aquifers and marine receiving environments) and Settling zone trend analyses;



Hydrological and hydraulic requirements,



Contaminant management,



Best Practicable Options Analysis,



Management Recommendations/Works Programmes;



Consultation,



Intuitional Capacity,



Monitoring,



Monitoring of stormwater and wastewater works.

ICMP‘s are used to define how a watershed and its cumulative parts should be managed. This approach is used in many parts of the world. The main focus is to consider issues and strategic objectives for wastewater, stormwater and land use management and planning, and also to provide recommendations for physical improvement works amongst others. These plans are used as a tool in urban/development areas and in rural/undeveloped areas. In the rural/undeveloped areas they tend to focus on the sustainable management of land, with particular regards to land development, water management and allocation. In the larger catchments of New Zealand, water as a resource for commercial purpose is finite, so the balance with environmental sustainability is a key driver. In the Auckland context ICMPs are developed and owned by the local authorities to manage wastewater and stormwater discharges, diversions and associated activities within catchment or district areas. There is a greater emphasis on the basis of intensive urban and commercialised land use on flooding, contaminant management and discharges to receiving environments associated with networks. Experiences related to the ICMPs process in urban environments are the main source for of this paper. 1.3.1

MORE THAN PIPES AND FLOODING

Until 2004, Catchment Management Plans (CMPs) had largely been about identifying stormwater flooding, analysing network capacity and providing options for management of identified issues (Hellberg, Davis, Feeney, & and Allen, 2010). In many ways they were just about pipes and flooding. Although dependant on councils defining the scope of the study, environmental considerations such as water quality and the receiving environment were taken into account, but not in a consistent manner.



This was then broadened following the establishment of the ARC Stormwater Action Plan with CMPs referred to as Integrated Catchment Management Plans (ICMPs). The intention being that ICMPs would include more than just stormwater volume and discharge rate control but also consider water quality, receiving environments and contaminant management and modelling. Although ICMPs are non-statutory documents, they are closely related to other planning documents (which they must be consistent with) prepared under the Resource Management Act 1991 and the Local Government Act 2002.

shows the connections of ICMPs with other planning instruments. 1.3.2

WHO PREPARES ICMPs?

Overall, consultants undertake the bulk of the technical work for the development of ICMPs. However the level of internal and external resourcing differs across the region. Council officers prepare the scope of services for the consultants with the outputs driven by ARC requirements and the approach of the individual councils. Internal quality assurance and implementation of plans are generally the responsibility of council officers. It has been observed that consultants can sometimes find it difficult to deliver to client and council expectations as there can be a lack of clarity and objective direction. However, professional consultancy firms provide an invaluable resource to councils. Without the provision of their expertise and skills many key council services would not be delivered. The following general statements can be made with regards to the allocation and availability of resources for the development and preparation of ICMPs and the balance between the benefits and drawbacks of outsource resource use: 

Overall consultancy services are extensively used in the development of plans for most council(s) in the Auckland region.



The ratio of insource vs. outsource differs across the region. With no clear trend based on resource level requirement e.g. smaller and larger councils can have essentially the same ratio.



Plans are generally prepared using existing council data without a dedicated effort in asset validation or research prior to preparation. Consequently consultants have to prepare plans without key information limiting the scope and quality of delivery.



Data flows between external parties and councils are typically poor with little consistency for either party.





Brownfield issues and options are very difficult to scope. This is because either strategic internal information is unavailable or not made available to outside parties, and key network or process knowledge is retained by key council staff members without them knowing who to communicate with.



ICMPs for greenfield catchments usually focus on planning and modelling which tends to result in clearer outputs and is simpler in terms of data flow.



ICMPs to-date are generally a desktop exercise. Issues often arise when recommendations for improvement cause problems related to: o

acceptance (community, stakeholders)

o

costs

o

feasibility

o

ease of consenting

o

out of date

o

scope change

o

lack of ownership (blaming the consultant for getting it wrong).

Many of the problems noted – including overall issues of communication, lack of information sharing and deficits in collective understanding, both within councils and external parties – have potential solutions which are associated with organisational and management values and practices.

2

BUSINESS PROCESS, TOOLS AND RESOURCES

2.1

MORE THAN JUST A PLAN

The preparation of an ICMP is not an easy undertaking – whatever the location or geographic setting. When a successful planning process produces a robust, well thought-out document, the tendency would be to think that the task has been achieved. However it has not. The overwhelming truth of the matter is that the systems and technical tools that support the calculations and designs/plans that are generated are proving to be increasingly important.

2.2

CRITICAL LIMITING FACTORS IN THE PRODUCTION OF CONSISTENT QUALITY PLANNING OUTPUTS AND IMPLEMENTATION

The critical limiting factors in the production and implementation of ICMPs are considered to be the following: 

Lack of Geographic Information System (GIS) resource availability,



Limited in-house modelling technical knowledge. This results in difficulties in model scoping, survey, design and quality assurance procedures. Experience has shown a large variability in the quality and usefulness of modelling outputs.



Life Cycle Data Management (lack of processes to plan data capture and house data in a useable manner).



Discourse with district planning processes,



Limited asset data information (connectivity, levels, validation),





Planned integration with other stakeholders (other council departments) with the intent to agree on scope of the planning work, recommendations and mutual implications and alignment of proposed works.



Receiving environment information and availability,



Human resource capacity,



Limited information sharing between council and/or regional groups.

The objective of identifying these factors is to improve the understanding of the business processes and tools that may be required to produce more effective plans and manage the infrastructure of the city in an optimised manner. The integration of information sets through GIS and documented management systems can allow multidepartment/organisational collaborations to flourish. This could include the management of infrastructure, such as roads, wastewater/water supply and multiple land uses, under a ―t otal watershed management approach‖.

2.3

DATA LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT – FROM CRADLE TO GRAVE

Data Life Cycle Management (DLCM) is the process of managing the phases in which data moves through an organisation. The different phases include how the organisation collects, stores, processes and disseminates key data. Key data defines the most critical or important elements that are relevant to supporting an internal organisation‘s specific business processes. For councils this is particularly important because it is data that is the currency of business. Without the information about billing addresses, public infrastructure or roads, it would be impossible for councils to deliver essential levels of service. DLCM may not immediately seem like a high priority business activity in the development of catchment plans. In the past, when information was largely paper based, this may have been the case, with the most tangible and important outputs being the plan, flood maps and/or capital works options . Traditionally information required for ICMPs was collected once and not subsequently maintained (and often lost over time). This is generally inefficient. However modern hardware and software tools now mean that all data can be collected under strict rules that allow them to become highly valuable, not just to support the ICMP process but also for other business processes including land use planning, transport, operations and consenting. For example, the cadastral survey information collected during the process of computational model hydraulic construction might have x, y and z data for a number of assets and land use features such as culverts and building floor levels. The objective of DLCM, in this case, would be to ensure that this x, y and z data are assigned to the records for pipes and building footprints. The result being that information about the piped network can be updated and a property can have a record stored about its floor level. This is a very simple example, but in spite of this, it is probably highly likely that this sort of information is not retained and/or updated by councils at all or if it is then it is not accessible to council officers or the public.

2.3.1

ADVANTAGES OF KNOWING THE WHY AND HOW OF DATA COLLECTION

The teams, groups and individuals within councils that manage the data flow, structure and functionality are often organisationally remote from the parties who use the information. This separation does not encourage the identification of potential benefits and positive spin-offs from the investigation, analysis and planning undertaken for ICMPs development. The advantages of knowing why data is being collected and the format it should be in is vitally important if DLCM is to be achieved. From the perspective of the catchment manager, they require clear rules to support their internal processes and to communicate to outside parties using and providing data to councils about expected format and content. NZESS Conference 2010 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 889


2.3.2

ASSET INSPECTION, VALIDATION AND SURVEY

Asset validation and inspection should be undertaken as part of catchment investigation whenever budget allows. Experience has shown that existing asset information, generally held in council GIS/Asset management systems, is incomplete and unreliable. Asset validation and inspection can be achieved through the use of internal and external operators using the latest equipment, including GPS survey, Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) and mobile computers. For example, CCTV inspection is driven by the need for good clean data for network modelling development. As with all data collection, data lifecycle management should require that data is ‗purpose captured‘ to be used in corporate updates and ‗as-built‘ generation. The other positive spinoffs from asset validation and inspection is in asset management and GIS, including targeted renewal programmes and improvement of GIS data, which encourages greater confidence to users who then actively silicate the information.

2.4

HUMAN RESOURCES

Investment in human resources is vital. If councils can retain staff that are well trained and provided with the appropriate tools, they are in a much better position to support each other and to provide a robust sounding board for outside resources to deliver high quality outputs. 2.4.1

DATA CHAMPIONS

A― data champion‖ is an individual within a team or group who has sufficient technical abilities in the area of data management and analysis to communicate and advocate for the efficient use of data. Without people who have this ability, there is no means to ensure that information collected or generated as part of the ICMP process will be utilised, stored or used to improve business processes. A data champion can act to facilitate better communication between data management teams and with the end-users of the data. This means having data, tools and interface structures that are appropriate for the purpose. Data champions are passionate about data and developing new efficient processes and also about working through any issues of non-cooperation that arise between parties. These individuals should have the mandate to cross organisational structure. In particular be able to work across departments and CCOs. 2.4.2

KEY LIAISON STAFF AND SLEEPERS

In the world of espionage a sleeper agent is a spy who is placed in a target country or organisation, not to undertake an immediate mission, but rather to act as a potential asset if activated. The concept of a sleeper in a council‘s organisational structure is similar with a slight twist. In this context a technical officer, who may be a stormwater/wastewater professional, may be placed in a transport organisation to work on issues relating to this discipline. In this way they would become a key liaison for external and internal parties regarding stormwater for transport but would actually be supported from a management hierarchy perspective in a stormwater management structure. The objective of a ‗sleeper‘ would be to encourage collaboration and maximise the sharing of information and ideas between departments or CCOs. In practice, they would be similar to a relationship manager. 2.4.3

QUALITY ASSURANCE

Quality assurance of models, survey, and management options is often not undertaken by councils. In particular quality assurance of technical deliverables is challenging when there is a lack of technical expertise. With models, experience has shown a large variability in the quality and usefulness of modelling outputs. The feedback from a robust review of planning deliverables can be extremely useful for consulting resources as they can refine and develop procedures, planning and options resulting in better outcomes.



3

MULTI-DEPARTMENT AND ORGANISATIONAL COLLABORATION

Multi-department and organisational collaboration is essential to meet objectives and outcomes and share benefits. There are of course a number of barriers to this sort of collaboration as it is often secondary to the goals and driver of the individual departments/organisations. In particular project implementation and performance targets will generally not include any targets or measures for positive results generated through interdepartmental collaboration. The following tools and methods might be required to encourage multi department and organisation collaboration in the ‗One Council Scenario‘: 

Single platform GIS systems with a customised interface that takes into account user profiles necessary to support collaboration e.g. consenting teams having full access to environmental data-sets.



Procedures for the capture, maintenance and analysis of data, sharing of results and generation of customised tools in the most efficient way.



All planned projects shown to all users as required in a GIS based platform,



Issues and opportunities within a catchment shown as GIS layers and updatable to selected users.



A structured organisational process that provides for procedural changes to be initiated from findings and experience of council departments including CCOs.



All major capital works projects to include a collaboration with other departments that is documented and is Key Performance Indicator (KPI) based.

The following are examples of successful interdepartmental collaborations observed that provide some indication of how this process might be used in practice.

OVERLAND FLOW PATHS, TRANSPORT AND CONSENTS

3.1

Although stormwater practitioners may take the bulk of the responsibility in stormwater management, it is impossible for any land use practitioner to avoid having to manage stormwater in one way or another. The study and management of Overland Flow Paths (OLFPs) provide an excellent example of this and present many challenges to the numerous parties involved. In North Shore City, approximately 70 per cent of flooding complaints are related to OLFPs as opposed to backwater generated floodplains. Management of OLFPs is an essential part of effective stormwater management and planning, and therefore from an ICMP perspective, the initial task in regards to OLFP is to determine their locations, magnitude (depending on return event) and their impacts. Through the use of a Light Detecting and Ranging (LiDAR) survey and GIS tools it is possible to map and calculate the alignment and magnitude of OLFPs throughout entire developed areas. The properties affected are easily identified and shown on plans and maps. Inspections are required to ground truth the modelling outputs and modify these when required at field visits, using electronic data capture. This involves assessment of features including the source of the flow, its continuity, obstructions and who may be responsible for rectifying assessed problems. OLFPs studies carried out as part of the North Shore City Council ICMP flood management modules have resulted in procedural changes to the consents and inspection process, with an overall positive benefit to both the council and the community. The principal findings concluded from studies to-date are (Young and Tate 2007): 

The obstruction of recognised OLFPs in developed areas of the city is typically frequent and substantial



Slab-on-ground development combined with inappropriate landscaping leads to frequent and significant risks of floor flooding for properties in OLFPs.





The careful design and construction of roads, berms and vehicle crossings is key to minimising the adverse effects of overland flow



Private drainage is typically non-effective or non-existent,



There is a widespread need for education of risks and remedies within the development community and general public.



OLFP analysis is an important tool in the study of wastewater network infiltration and overflow reduction strategies.



OLFP can contribute to inflow problems into the wastewater network, potentially causing wet weather overflows from the wastewater network.



The need to include OLFP assessments and prevention of potential OLFP issues during consenting processes.

Successful interdepartmental collaboration involved the following departments, with workshops seminars and information sharing being core to the process: 

Stormwater operations and planning,



Wastewater operations and planning,



Environmental compliance and consents,



Transport,



Parks.

The resulting significant resource from this exercise utilised both citywide analysis and individual property assessments. It is an excellent example of how CCOs might have to work together in ICMPs implementation and business process development.

3.2

CONTAMINANT MANAGEMENT, ASSET DATA AND CONSENTS

North Shore City Council developed a GIS based contaminant model to assess the effectiveness of various stormwater treatment options to reduce the contaminant loadings in receiving environments. This model was designed as a tool in the development of ICMPs and uses multiple land use datasets. It serves to integrate the manipulation of the spatial data and modelling processes for the estimation of stormwater contaminant loads and the simulation of various treatment options to reduce contaminant loadings. This tool utilised the knowledge and experience of individuals from different disciplines, allowing for the business needs of stormwater planners to scope the scale and/or feasibility of projects to construct stormwater treatment devices, minimising the effects of contaminants. Stormwater managers can then benefit from investigating high contaminant source areas and quantifying the efficiency of existing stormwater treatment devices. The goal of this collaboration was to plan for the management of contaminants. To achieve this, a number of building blocks had to be constructed and hurdles surmounted. This was only possible through the collaboration of multiple departments. In order to design the model, accurate information about ponds had to be used. This led to scrutiny of the pond and treatment device datasets resulting in the generation of a spatial ponds layer in a database format (previously the data had been in an Excel format). This provided an asset data management team with clean information that was used as the basis for a corporatized dataset standardised with asset data rules. From the preparation of an ICMP and the objective of managing contaminants, there was a flow-on effect of additional benefits through interdepartmental collaboration. Once this information was available it could then be shared with a wider group. The operations and maintenance team work with environmental services (planning NZESS Conference 2010 4th International Conference on Sustainability Engineering and Science -Transitions to Sustainability December 2010 Page 892


and consents) to provide guidance and controls on the discharge of stormwater to existing ponds. It is critical for the consents staff to know which catchments area the pond services and whether the pond to be discharged to is compliant with the ARC Technical Publication 10 standard. With the information generated via the development of the contaminant model this is now achievable and has become a tool to manage consenting processes. There are two critical factors to consider in terms of this scenario: 1.

The importance of having the institutional capacity to manage the tasks and work streams to deliver the outcome and;

2.

Being cognisant of the potential benefits and positive spin-offs from spending time and money on generating clean information datasets that are fit for the purpose.

This second point is particularly important as it does not preclude a largely outsourced resource model but simply reinforces the need to consider DLCM at every stage of the ICMP process. This project involved the following departments, with workshops seminars and information sharing being core to the process:

3.3



Stormwater operations and planning,



Environmental compliance and consents.



GIS and information management.

INFORMING LAND USE PLANNING PROCESSES

Catchment planning can and should provide important information into land use planning processes. Examples of this include the Long Bay Structure Plan and the Pukekohe South ICMP. The Long Bay structure planning process used valuable modelling and stream data to support the planning process, including an Environment Court process. The quality of the data was the foundation of this process. It involved planners, wastewater/stormwater managers and ecologists. The Pukekohe South ICMP provided the direction and stimulus for district plan land-use changes from intensive cropping, which was causing excessive sedimentation and blocking the primary drainage system, resulting in flooding. This was supported and facilitated by the involvement of council planners in a collaborative exercise.

3.4

STREAM MANAGEMENT AND ASSET SURVEY

One of the fundamental reasons for stream and asset survey is to enable classification for management purposes. Stream assessment and categorisation is an important step towards the development of ICMPs. ARC Technical Publication 232 (TP 232) Framework and Management of Urban Streams in the Auckland Region (August 2004), sets out a management framework for urban streams in the Auckland region. This type of investigation has multiple purposes beyond just ICMPs and contributes integrally to network consenting (e.g. NSCC), watercourse management (e.g. ACC) and stormwater activity management plans (e.g. Waitakere City Council (WCC)). For example, Project Twin Streams in Waitakere City, was born from a project aimed at managing and alleviating flooding and has now developed into a community partnership restoring 56 kilometres of Waitakere stream banks. This has occurred through an integrated community development approach. The ICMP process has been able to take advantage of this work and use it to drive priority and direction for mitigation. This collaborative approach is considered best practice throughout the region. The stream and asset survey undertaken in Waitakere, required for ICMPs is designed to be integrated into the corporate information management system (Hansen) with photos and data links.



Table 1: Divers for Stream and Asset Survey and Relationship to ICMP General Survey Parameters

ICMP Development & Stream Classification

Potential District Planning

Modelling

Asset Management

City Plan (LTCCP)

Network Management Plan

Network Consent Application

Ecological

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Engineering

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Wetlands

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Inanga Spawning

Yes

Yes

No

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Fish Sites

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Stream Mouths

Yes

Yes

No

No

Yes

No

Yes

Community groups such as Friends of the Whau, Friends of Oakley Creek and the Kaipatiki Ecological Restoration Project can benefit from the information generated from stream and asset survey. Education and action initiatives including Enviro Schools and Wai Care can and are included in ICMPs, often being involved in the implementation of projects particularly in the area of stream restoration.

4

CONCLUSIONS

This paper has aimed to investigate and present what might be required in the ‗One Auckland Scenario‘ to achieve Integrated Catchment Management Planning best practice and ultimately sustainability through the development of resilient societies. How can ICMP be prepared and implemented in a ‗One Council‘ scenario? Firstly by clearly understanding the institutional capacity, community expectations and business practices of the individual councils and using this information to build on, rather than starting from scratch. The integration of information sets through GIS and documented management systems will be crucial for multi-department/organisational collaborations to flourish. Secondly, implementation of plans require that council business processes are developed and fit for purposes including quality assurance, data management and robust and dynamic information systems. Work stream and management structures should provide for procedural changes to be initiated from findings of their organisations or CCOs.

4.1

COLLABORATION AND INTEGRATION

Multi-department and organisational collaboration will be essential to meet high expectations for watershed management. However, collaboration is often a secondary project priority to delivery. If performance targets or KPIs were required for collaboration as part of the project quality assurance procedures, it would assist in achieving expected positive results from the Auckland Council restructure. Discussions with stormwater managers, as part of research conducted for this paper, support the need for material collaboration and the means to achieve it. This could be facilitated through the development and design of a Council Collaboration Tool (CCT) which would be a central portal for all CCOs and Auckland Council.



4.2

DATA MANAGEMENT

Data flow between outside parties and councils are largely poor with little consistency for either party. Rules and procedures need to be established to support internal and external parties. Datasets are often not used to full potential within councils. This is often because no system exists to manage the data. Additionally the teams, groups and individuals who manage data systems are organisationally remote from the parties who use the information. These inconsistencies and data discourse could be improved through the establishment of Data Life Cycle Management procedures. Additionally having council staff assigned as data champions within their group or team would help to manage the flow and quality of data.

GIS RESOURCES

4.3

A single platform GIS system with a customised interface that takes into account user profiles is necessary to support collaboration e.g. consenting teams having full access to environmental datasets. All planned projects shown to all users as required in a GIS based platform including services available to all users is required. If information about parks, pipes and people cannot be viewed by all city managers including CCOs, it will be difficult to have integrated management.

4.4

HUMAN RESOURCES

Investment in human resources is vital. If councils can retain staff that are well trained and provided with the appropriate tools, they are in a much better position to support each other and to provide a robust sounding board for their outside resources to deliver high quality outputs. Although some of the technical work can be effectively outsourced, corporate knowledge and ownership is critical to: 

Ensure good quality and consistency of outsourced work undertaken,



Implement recommendations,



Efficiently update and maintain ICMPs,



Achieve savings in catchment planning related costs.

This would mean that teams or groups should be able to undertake the tasks at management and quality assurance levels and should not be technically destitute



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would like to acknowledge the help and time given by the following people: Grant Ockleston

- Auckland City Council

Claudia Helberg

- Auckland Regional Council

Claire Feeney

- Environment and Business Group

Godfrey White

- Franklin District Council

Barry Carter

- North Shore City Council

Micheal Lindgreen

- Metrowater

Kim Buchannaan

- Rodney District Council

Helen Chin

- Waitakere City Council

REFERENCES ARC, 2005: Integrated Catchment Management Plans (ICMPs) Workstream Strategy. ARC, 2006, ICMP funding eligibility guideline. ARC, 2009, Measurable multiple bottom line objectives for ICMPs. ARC Technical Report No. 2009/089. ARC 2005: An ARC Guide to Structure Planning: A Regional Practice and Resource Guide 2005. ARC Technical Report No. 2009/089 Auckland Regional Council (ARC) 2004 Framework and Management of Urban Streams in the Auckland Region Technical Publication 232. Feeney, C et al (2008). Integrated Catchment Management Planning: Benefits of Logic Models, 2008. A paper presented at the May 2008 New Zealand Water and Waste Conference in Rotorua, New Zealand. Hellberg, C. et al (2009). A Logic Based Evaluation Framework to Assess Progress with Integrated Catchment Management Planning in the Auckland Region. Web References Auckland Regional Council Proposed Plan Air Land and http://www.arc.govt.nz/albany/fms/main/Documents/Plans/Regional%20Policy%20and%20Plans/Proposed%20 ARP%20Air%20Land%20and%20Water/Proposed%20ALWP%20-%20Schedules%209-12.pdf (accessed on 050310) Auckland City Council District Plan http://www.aucklandcity.govt.nz/Council/documents/hgi/docs/hgiAnn01c.pdf (accessed on 230310)



Sustainable electric energy supply by decentralized alternative energy technologies Zahedi, A/Prof Ahmad (Presenter) School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, James Cook University Queensland, Australia, Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract Energy is a fundamental component of human life with strong link to the living standard. It is important to understand that this important human life component is used in a sustainable way. Sustainable energy from production, consumption, and environmental point of view is research fields of many researchers around the world. The real question is how energy can be used in a sustainable way and how decentralized alternative sources can contribute to sustainability of energy. Currently, fossil fuel, world-wide, and nuclear energy, in some countries are the main source of energy in both developed and developing nations. Using these sources, which extract fuels from finite earth resources, is associated with some environmental and social problems. We may have to make some major changes if we wish to address the challenges of sustainable energy. Many pressures are focused on electrical energy, in terms of its supply technologies and efficiencies. These concerns have often been expressed in demands for less use, greater end-use efficiencies, and more reliance on alternative sources such as solar photovoltaic (PV) energy, wind power and other sustainable power supplies. The objective of this paper is to discuss some of the issues related to current energy structure from sustainability point of view and highlight the opportunities provided by decentralized renewable energy-based distributed generation technologies, for meeting the challenges of a sustainable power supply. A further objective is to present a sustainable energy model as well as the results of a computer simulation program developed for this purpose.

1. Introduction The most available and affordable sources of energy in today’s economic structure are fossil fuels, namely, oil, gas, and coal [1]. Fossil fuels are non-renewable; they have limited reserves, with serious environmental problem associated with their use. The majority of energy produced by these sources are polluting, and damaging to ecosystems. Coal and nuclear energy are used in central and bulky power station to produce electricity, and then this electricity is delivered to customers via expensive transmission lines and distribution systems [2], [3]. Transmission and distribution lines are important components of current power grid structure. Delivering electric power via transmission and distribution lines to the electricity users is associated with high electric power losses. These power losses are costly burdens on power suppliers and users. One of the advantages of decentralized generation (DG) is to that DG is capable to minimise the power losses in the line because electric power by DG is generated at the demand site.

2. World’s limited energy reserves Page 1 of 10



Oil and gas are currently used at record level. These two are limited in terms of their reserves. Nobody knows how much oil and gas still exists under the earth's surface. And also nobody knows how many years it will be possible to produce oil in the future. All numbers we have at best, informed estimates. •

Oil

According to Oil & Gas Journal [4], the world’s proven reserve of oil amounted to 1318 billion barrels (2006). Similar Figures have been published by other sources e.g. 1140 billion barrels (OPEC) [5], 1226 billion barrels (IEA) at current production rate of 84 million barrels per day [4]. Oil reserves are concentrated mainly in OPEC countries (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), especially in those OPEC members of the Middle East. According to IEA, more than 75% of oil reserve is in the OPEC countries. According to the same source, almost 65% of oil is in the Middle East region. Figure 1 shows world’s oil distribution in giga tonnes coal equivalent (gtce). (1 gtce=29.3076 x 1018 Joules). Figure 2 shows world oil in billion barrels. •

Gas

Worldwide proven gas reserves have increased by more than 80% over that past twenty years and it is expected more gas resources being recovered in the Middle East, Russia, and Central Asia. Almost 40% of gas is in the Middle East region [1], [4]. Current 180 trillion cubic meter world gas resources are more than sufficient to meet current demand for more than 50 years, even with projected demand increase. Gas contribution to the world energy mixed has increase from 16% in 1973 to 21% in 2005. According to IEA’s Reference Scenario, gas demand will grow at rate of 2% per year by 2030, from 2.8 trillion cubic meters in 2005 to 3.6 trillion cubic meters in 2015 and to 4.7 trillion cubic meters in 2030, (Trillion = 1012). The biggest increase occurs in developing countries, China & India. Gas supply infrastructure to meet this production increase is predicted to need an investment of $3.9 trillion by 2030 [1]. Figure 3 shows world’s distribution of gas.

3. Coal, an environmentally unsustainable option for electricity generation Coal is plentifully available everywhere including Australia. But energy source is considered as polluting option for electricity generation. Research suggests that the public is not fully aware of the significant role of coal fired power in the greenhouse pollution problem. Opinion polls and focus groups reveal that most people do not realise the central role of coal in the production of the electricity, nor its major role in causing global warming. More than 50% of coal reserves are located in just 4 countries i.e. the USA, Russia, China & Australia. Coal is mainly used for electric power generation [2]. In 2004 for example 6945 TWh of the world electricity, (almost 40% of the world electricity 17450 TWh) was produced in coal-fired power stations. This number was 2340 TWh in 1973 with the similar percentage. According to IEA’s Reference Scenario global coal demand will grow at rate of 1.8% per by 2030. Share of coal in global energy mix remains broadly constant at 25%. Proven reserve at the end of 2005: 909 billion tones, equivalent to 164 years of production at current rate. World-wide, fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy by 2030. However, from Page 2 of 10



environnment point of view, cooal is not a sustainable s source of energy. Figuure 4 shows world’s distribuution of coall. 1400 0

Oil, Gtce

W World oil, billl bbl

1200 0 1000 0

179

800 0 600 0 16

25

7

25

21

1

400 0 6

1

6 Asia & Oceania

World

p Europe

Asia

Euroasia

South America

Africa

North America

0 Middle East

China

India

Former Soviet Union

Midle East

Africa

Central & Eastern E Europe

Western & Southern Europe

South America

North America

200 0

Figu ure 2 world’’s oil distribbution in billl bbl

Figuree 1 world’s oil o distributtion

258

Gas, Gtce

Cooal, Gtce 225

Figuree 3 world’s gas g distribuution

94

55

Asia & Oceania

Chi China

Former Soviet Union

Midle East

Africa

Central & Eastern Europe

2 Western & Southern Europe

South America

China

17 N hA North America i

3

84 33

22

Asia & Oceania

1 India

Former Soviet Union

South America

1

Midle East

North America

8

Africa

11

Western & Southern Europe Central & Eastern Europe

11

21

115

97

86

India

110

Figu ure 4 world’’s coal distrribution

ption 4. Nuclear op Nuclearr power, a proven teechnology for f base-loaad electriciity generatiion, could make a significcant contribbution to reducing GH HG emission ns. Use of nuclear energy for electricity generation has alw ways been associated a w some social with s and security isssues. It is predicted p that nuuclear energgy capacityy will increease to 416 6 GW by 2030 2 from 368 GW in i 2005. Howeveer, nuclear share s in totaal world eleectricity gen neration droops from 16% % to 10% [1], [2]. Nuclearr power is very capitaal intensivee ($2 - $3.5 5 bill/Reacttor). Econom my is not the t only factor determining d g constructioon of new nuclear n pow wer plant [11], [2]. Safeeties, nucleaar waste disposaal, the risk of prolifeeration are real challeenges whicch have to be solved d to the Page 3 of 10



satisfaction of the public before construction of a nuclear power plant starts. This technology is also very energy intensive. This means that almost 10% of the energy that a 1000 MW nuclear power plant can produced during its life time of 30 years is used to make it. Unlike oil & gas uranium resources are widely distributed around the world. Nuclear power plants produce electricity at relatively stable cost, because the cost of fuel represents only about 15% of the production cost. In gas-fired power plant, cost of fuel is about 75% of the production cost. Nuclear electricity is water intensive. At the time of increasing water scarcity, nuclear energy cannot offer a reasonable and sustainable solution. For every kilo watt of electricity that is produced in a nuclear power plant, almost 2.3 litre of water is consumed [7]. According to CSIRO [8], there are 1962 kilo tones of uranium worldwide available (proven resource), 716 kilo tones (36.5%) of this amount is in Australia. With the current level of uranium production (8 – 10 kilo tones of enriched uranium is needed every year), experts believe that the uranium reserves will be finished in about four decades, so from sustainability point of view it is not a sustainable resource.

5. Cleaner and sustainable options The growing awareness of the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on global climate change has necessitated a reassessment of the current approach to achieve a sustainable energy for the future. Without any doubt, the increasing utilization of alternative sources is the key to a cleaner and sustainable energy in the future. Cleaner options are: • Hydro According to the World Energy Council more than 45000 hydro power plants operational with a generating capacity of 800 gigawatts and they currently supply almost one-fifth of the electricity consumed worldwide [14]. • Biomass Wood, crop residues and other biological sources are an important energy source for more than two billion people. Mostly, this fuel is burned in fires and cooking stoves, but over recent years biomass has become a source of fossil-fuel-free electricity. • Geothermal Earth's interior contains vast amounts of heat. Because rock conducts heat poorly, the rate at which this heat flows to the surface is very slow. The slow flow of Earth's heat makes it a hard resource to use for electricity generation except in a few specific places, such as those with abundant hot springs. Italy, New Zealand, the USA are among small number of countries produce geothermal electricity. • Ocean energy The oceans offer two kinds of available kinetic energy the tides and that of the waves. Neither currently makes a significant contribution to world electricity generation, but this has not stopped enthusiasts from developing schemes to make use of them. Page 4 of 10



•

Solar and Wind W

The last two sourcces (solar & wind) are considered c as success story of thee last 2 decaades [6]. Howeveer, the interrmittency naature is conssidered as weakness w off these sourcces. •

Why solar energy is important? i ?

Solar energy e is sustainablee and widdely availaable almostt everywhere. Solar energy technologies use only o ordinarry materialss. Solar energy uses a resource r thaat is far larger than requiredd to providde all of thhe world’s energy [11 1]. A simple calculatiion shows that the amountt of energy received in i one hourr by the eaarth from thhe sun is eequivalent to t world energy consumptioon in one year. y Unlikee nuclear, solar s energyy has no seecurity and military risk. Unnlike oil & gas, solar energy e is avvailable alm most everyw where. Unlikke fossil fueels, solar energy has minim mal environnmental im mpacts. No increases in the cosst of fuel, routine maintennance is far less than coonventionall plants, and d the fuel (suun energy) does not haave to be transporrted. Australia with thhe world’s highest sun n radiation has the pootential to lead the world inn relation too using solaar energy forr electricity y productionn [9]. •

Why wind power is im mportant?

Wind tuurbines usee freely avaailable windd to generaate electricitty, wind ennergy conveersion is mature technologyy, in some cases the eneergy producction cost ($$/kWh) as low as conv ventional power generation g t technologie es. Environm mental Issues are very low; wind energy con ntributes to securrity of suppply, and toggether with storage ablee to serve thhe base loaad. Both sun n energy and winnd power arre considereed as fast growing techn nologies of the past two decades. Figure F 5 shows the t developpment of thhe world solar photovo oltaic capaccity [2], whhile Figure 6 shows developpment of thee world winnd power caapacity [10].. 10000

120,000

Global cum mulative PV capaacity MW

9000

Global Cumulative installed Windd capacity

MW

100,000

8000 7000

80,000

6000 5000

60,000

4000 40,000

3000 2000

20,000

1000 0

Figuree 5 global PV V energy caapacity •

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

0

Figu ure 6 globall wind power capacity

Intermitten ncy issue and a role of storage s dev vice to solve this issuee

The facct is that ennergy generaation from renewable energy suchh as solar aand wind iss seldom constannt over timee and also electricity deemand is neever constannt. Thereforre, using an n energy storage technologyy into renew wable energgy generating system is importannt. There arre many Page 5 of 10



different technologies available for storing energy. They come in all forms of energy such as mechanical, chemical, and thermal. Following energy storage devices have been explored, they are matured and leading the storage technologies: Battery storage; Pumped hydro storage; Thermal energy storage; Compressed air energy storage; Energy storage using flow batteries; Electrolyzer and Fuel cell; Flywheel energy storage; Superconducting magnetic energy storage; Super-capacitors. In terms of their applications, the energy storage technologies are divided in two categories: • Low to medium power application to be used in isolated areas. These two categories are used where the energy could be stored as kinetic energy, chemical energy, compressed air, hydrogen, or in super-capacitors • Large scale power applications where the energy could be stored as potential energy, thermal energy, chemical energy (flow batteries), or compressed air Storage technologies are characterised by factors such as: Storage capacity; Available power; Depth of discharge or power transmission rate; Discharge time; Efficiency; Durability (cycling capacity); Self-discharge; Mass and volume densities of energy; Monitoring and control equipment; Operational constraints; Reliability; Environmental aspect, and etc.

6. Sustainable power system using solar, wind and a storage technology A power system consisting of solar energy wind turbine together with a storage device can provide a sustainable system provided the system is properly engineered and the system components are correctly sized. Energy storage technologies provide opportunity for the generation side to meeting the level of power quality as well as reliability required by the demand side. Energy storage is especially important for decentralized power supply system by giving the more load-following capability, which is an important factor from generation side management. •

Case study, a hybrid system

A hybrid system is investigated, in which a load is supplied by a system consisting of solar energy, wind power and a storage device. The hybrid system of this study is shown in Figure 7. The main components of this system are solar PV array, wind turbine, and an energy storage unit. As a result of unpredictability of sun and wind, the output power from PV array and wind turbine is unpredictable. The storage unit is there to ensure that a reliable power is supplied to the load. The energy storage unit would be absorbing the excess generating capacity available during periods of low demand. Therefore, this excess energy is stored in the storage unit for later use. The stored energy can then be used to provide electricity during periods of high demand, helping to reduce power system loads during these times. •

System simulation

In order to analyse the operation as well as performance optimization of the system a simulation software tool has been used, taking into account the characteristics and efficiencies of all devices involved. As input data, the simulation tool uses both average wind speed data and sun radiation data, the peak sun hour (PSH), over a year and calculates the energy flux between the different segments. Depending on the size and efficiency of the Page 6 of 10



devices selected (solar array, wind turbine), it is possible to predict the system’s performance over the whole year. And also the overall system efficiency, the percentage of energy generated by solar array and wind turbine and capacity factor (CF) of each are determined. Solar PV Energy DC/DC

Wind Power

AC/DC

Energy Storage Unit

Charge Controller

DC

DC/AC

AC

Figure 7 hybrid power system under investigation The energy storage technology for this system can be of any type. In this study we used energy flow to and from storage unit in kWh and energy conversion efficiency, so type of storage device is not important. Table 1 shows information used for this simulation, while table 2 shows the simulation results. Graphical presentation of the simulation results are shown in Figure 8 to Figure 12. # of WT

Rated WT

Eff. WT

Air Density

Radius, m

WS, m/s

Old H

1

330

0.45

1.05

10

6.25

10

New H

Roughness

De-Rating

PV-kW

Load/day

Efficiency

Storage

20

0.15

0.85

325

2650

0.85

300MWh

Table 1 Following equations were used to determine power production by wind turbine [12, 13]: size kW . PSH . De rating factor P solar 6 P wind 0.5 ρ A U ave /1000 π Each is able to generate 50% of annual energy needed by the load.

•

Simulation Results

Table 2 shows the simulation results. Graphical presentation of the simulation results are shown in Figure 8 to Figure 12. Figure 8 shows power production by solar PV subsystem, Figure 9 shows power production by wind turbine, Figure 10 shows power production by solar PV and wind turbine, Figure 11 Page 7 of 10



compares total power production with the demand, Figure 12 shows situation of storage device. Wind Speed (m/s)

Wind Power KW

Radiation

Solar Power

Power (Wind + Solar)

Load

Balance

Efficienc y

300000 MWh

Jan

6.30

36023

6.5

55664

91687

82150

9537

0.88

308393

Feb

5.30

20064

6.4

51272

71336

76850

-5514

1.14

302127

Mar

5.40

22685

5.5

47101

69786

82150

-12364

1.14

288077

Apr

5.90

28634

4.2

34808

63441

79500

-16059

1.14

269828

May

7.00

49414

3.2

27404

76818

82150

-5332

1.14

263770

Jun

8.30

79717

2.80

23205

102922

79500

23422

0.88

284381

July

7.50

60778

3.20

27404

88182

82150

6032

0.88

289689

Aug

6.70

43330

3.70

31686

75015

82150

-7135

1.14

281582

Sep

6.10

31645

4.60

38123

69768

79500

-9732

1.14

270522

Oct

6.70

43330

5.40

46244

89574

82150

7424

0.88

277055

Nov

6.30

34861

5.80

48068

82929

79500

3429

0.88

280072

Dec

6.90

47327

6.20

53095

100422

82150

18272

0.88

296152

981880

969900

11980

Total

497808

484073

CF

17%

17%

60

Thousands

Thousands

Table 2 simulation results Solar Power, kWh 50 40 30 20 10 0 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Wind Power KWh

1

10 11 12

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Month

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Month

Figure 10 Power production, Wind

Solar Power, kWh

Thousands

Thousands

Figure 9 Power production PV

10 11 12

120

Production vs Demand

kWh

100 80 60 40 20 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Figure 11 Total power production

1

10 11 12 Month

2

3

4

5

Power (Wind + Solar)

6

7

8

9

Load

10 11 12 Month

Figure 12 Power production vs demand Page 8 of 10


Thousands


350

Storage, kWh

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 11 12 Month

Figure 11 Situation of storage

7. Conclusions The world is facing two major energy-related issues, short term and long term. These issues are i) not having enough and secure supplies of energy at affordable prices ii) environmental damages caused by consuming too much energy in an un-sustainable way. A significant amount of the current world energy comes from limited resources, when used can not be replaced, hence the energy production and consumption do not seem to be sustainable, and also carries the threat of severe and irreversible damages to the environment including climate change. The price of energy is increasing and there are no evidences suggesting that this trend will reverse. To compensate this price increase we need to develop and use high energy efficient technologies and focusing on energy technologies using renewable sources with less energy conversion chains, such as solar and wind. World has the potential to expand its capacity of clean, renewable, and sustainable energy to off-set a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions from conventional power use. The renewable energy technologies in form of distributed generation can play a significant role in the mix of energy technologies to supply sustainable, reliable electric power.

8. References [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9]

International Energy Outlook, Energy Information Association (EIA), Office of integrated Analysis and Forecasting, US Department of Energy, Washington DC, 20585, May 2007 Key World Energy Statistics, International Energy Agency (IEA), Head of Communication and Information Office, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France Dr Mark Diesendorf, “Australia’s Polluting Power” Oil & Gas Journal Online: http://www.ogj.com/index.cfm Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Annual Report 2008 Keith Lovegrove, Presentation at Australian Academy of Science Paul Gipes, Wind Energy Comes of Age, John Wiley & Sons, 1995 CSIRO: http://www.csiro.au/ Zahedi, A., Australian Renewable Energy Progress, ELSEVIER, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review, in press Page 9 of 10



[10] [11] [12]

[13] [14]

Global Wind Energy Council: http://www.gwec.net/ Andrew Blakers, ANU, Notes on Solar Energy Zahedi, A “Low-emission and sustainable power supply for remote communities”. Proceedings of the Inaugural Symposium on Electrical Energy Evolution in China and Australia In: Electrical Energy Evolution in China and Australia, 28-30 July 2008, Palm Cove, QLD, Australia Masters, G M “Renewable and Efficient Electric Power Systems”, Wiley and Inter-science, 2004, chapter 6. Quirin Schiermeier, et al, “Electricity without Carbon”, nature 454, 816-823 (2008

About the Presenter: Ahmad Zahedi (PhD), SMIEEE’96 is an Associate Professor and Head of Electrical and Computer Engineering with the School of Engineering and Physical Sciences of James Cook University, Queensland, Australia. He has educated in Iran and Germany and is author or co-author of more than 150 publications including 4 books, has trained 16 postgraduate candidates at Master and PhD levels, and has completed 15 research and industry-funded projects. He has 20 years tertiary teaching and research and 6 years industry experience, with research interests in renewable energy, smart grid, and grid-integration of alternative sources.

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